Analysis
and
Approaches
SL
Unit 3b – Probability Distributions
Unit 3b - Overview
Before we start
Before we start
Discrete Random Variables
Random Variable
• A random variable x takes on a defined set
of values with different probabilities.
• For example, if you roll a die, the outcome is random
(not fixed) and there are 6 possible outcomes, each of
which occur with probability one-sixth.
• For example, if you poll people about their voting
preferences, the percentage of the sample that
responds “Yes on Proposition 100” is a also a random
variable (the percentage will be slightly differently
every time you poll).
• Roughly, probability is how frequently we
expect different outcomes to occur if we
repeat the experiment over and over
(“frequentist” view)
Discrete Random Variables
Discrete random variables have a
countable number of outcomes
Examples: Dead/alive, treatment/placebo, dice,
counts, etc.
Continuous random variables have an
infinite continuum of possible values.
Examples: blood pressure, weight, the speed of
a car, the real numbers from 1 to 6.
Discrete Random Variables
Probability Distribution
Functions
A probability function maps the possible
values of x against their respective
probabilities of occurrence, p(x)
p(x) is a number from 0 to 1.0.
The area under a probability function is
always 1.
Probability Distribution
Functions
Discrete example: roll of a die
p(x)
1/6
x
1 2 3 4 5 6
P(x) 1
all x
Probability Distribution
Functions
Probability function
x p(x)
1 p(x=1)=1
/6
2 p(x=2)=1
/6
3 p(x=3)=1
/6
4 p(x=4)=1
/6
5 p(x=5)=1
/6
6 p(x=6)=1
/6
Probability Distribution
Functions
Discrete example: Two coins
Probability Distribution
Functions
Probability function
X (#H) p(x)
0 p(x=0)=1
/4
1 p(x=1)=1
/2
2 p(x=2)=1
/4
1.0
Probability Distribution
Functions
Probability Distribution
Functions
Probability Distribution
Functions
Important
Probability Distribution
Functions
Practice Problem:
The number of patients seen in the ER in any given hour is
a random variable represented by x. The probability
distribution for x is:
x 10 11 12 13 14
P(x 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
)
Find the probability that in a given hour:
a. exactly 14 patients arrive p(x=14)= 0.1
b. At least 12 patients arrive
p(x12)= (0.2 + 0.1 +0.1) = 0.4
c. At most 11 patients arrive p(x≤11)= (0.4 +0.2) = 0.6
Probability Distribution 14
Functions A
Probability Distribution
Functions
Formally
Probability Distribution
Functions
Question
Expected Value
Expected Value and Variance
All probability distributions are
characterized by an expected value
(mean) and a variance (standard
deviation squared).
Expected Value
Expected value of a random variable
Expected value is just the average or mean
(µ) of random variable x.
It’s sometimes called a “weighted average”
because more frequent values of X are
weighted more highly in the average.
It’s also how we expect X to behave on-
average over the long run.
Expected Value 14B
Expected value, formally
Discrete case:
E( X )
all x
xi p(xi )
Expected Value
Symbol Interlude
E(X) = µ
these symbols are used
interchangeably
Expected Value
Example: expected value
Recall the following probability
distribution of ER arrivals:
x 10 11 12 13 14
P(x 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
)
x p( x) 10(.4) 11(.2) 12(.2) 13(.1) 14(.1) 11.3
i 1
i
Expected Value
Expected value is an extremely
useful concept for good decision-
making!
Expected Value
Example: the lottery
The Lottery (also known as a tax on people
who are bad at maths…)
A certain lottery works by picking 6 numbers
from 1 to 49. It costs $1.00 to play the
lottery, and if you win, you win $2 million
after taxes.
If you play the lottery once, what are your
expected winnings or losses?
Expected Value
Lottery
Calculate the probability of winning in 1 try:
1 1 1 -8 “49 choose 6”
7.2 x 10
49 49! 13,983,816
Out of 49 numbers,
6 43!6! this is the number
of distinct
combinations of 6.
The probability function (note, sums to 1.0):
x$ p(x)
-1 0.999999928
+ 2 million 7.2 x 10--8
Expected Value
The probability function
x$ p(x)
-1 0.999999928
+ 2 million 7.2 x 10--8
Expected Value
E(X) = P(win)×$2,000,000 + P(lose) ×-$1.00
= 2.0 × 106 × 7.2 × 10-8+ 0.999999928×(-1) = 0.144 - 0.999999928 = -$0.86
Negative expected value is never good!
You shouldn’t play if you expect to lose money!
Expected Value
Expected Value 14B
Gambling (or how casinos can afford to give so
many free drinks…)
A roulette wheel has the numbers 1 through 36, as well as 0 and 00. If
you bet $1 that an odd number comes up, you win or lose $1 according
to whether or not that event occurs. If random variable X denotes your
net gain, X=1 with probability 18/38 and X= -1 with probability 20/38.
E(X) = 1(18/38) – 1 (20/38) = -$0.053
On average, the casino wins (and the player loses) 5 cents per game.
The casino rakes in even more if the stakes are higher:
E(X) = 10(18/38) – 10 (20/38) = -$0.53
If the cost is $10 per game, the casino wins an average of 53 cents per
game. If 10,000 games are played in a night, that’s a cool $5300.
Expected Value
Expected value, formally
Discrete case:
E( X )
all x
xi p(xi )
PDF’s and E(X) – Exam
Questions
PDF’s and E(X) – Exam
Questions
PDF’s and E(X) – Exam 14B
Questions
E(X) Limitations
Expected value isn’t everything
though…
Take the hit show “Deal or No Deal”
Everyone know the rules?
Let’s say you are down to two cases left. $1
and $400,000. The banker offers you
$200,000.
So, Deal or No Deal?
E(X) Limitations
Deal or No Deal…
This could really be represented as a
probability distribution
x$ p(x)
+1 0.50
+$400,000 0.50
x$ p(x)
+$200,000 1.0
E(X) Limitations
Expected value doesn’t help…
x$ p(x)
+1 0.50
+$400,000 0.50
E ( X ) xi p(xi ) 1(0.50) 400,000(0.50) 200,000
all x
x$ p(x)
+$200,000 1.0
E ( X ) 200,000
E(X) Limitations
How to decide?
Variance!
If you take the deal, the variance/standard
deviation is 0.
If you don’t take the deal, what is average deviation
from the mean?
What’s your guess?
E(X) Limitations
Standard Deviation
The standard deviation can be
thought of as the average amount
we could expect the x’s in the
population to differ from the mean
value of the population.
To get the standard deviation, simply
take the square root of the variance.
Binomial Distribution
A binomial distribution is one where there are only two distinct
outcomes. Which of the following are binomial?
Picking a Scoring a goal in a
female student penalty shoot-out?
from a group of
students.
Student Binomial
scores in a Points
test. scored when
a shot is
taken in
Tossing a coin. basketball.
Rolling a die.
Binomial Distribution
A fixed number of observations (trials), n
e.g., 15 tosses of a coin; 20 patients; 1000
people surveyed
A binary outcome
e.g., head or tail in each toss of a coin; disease
or no disease
Generally called “success” and “failure”
Probability of success is p, probability of failure
is 1 – p
Constant probability for each observation
e.g., Probability of getting a tail is the same
each time we toss the coin
Binomial Distribution
Take the example of 5 coin tosses.
What’s the probability that you flip
exactly 3 heads in 5 coin tosses?
Binomial Distribution
Solution:
One way to get exactly 3 heads: HHHTT
What’s the probability of this exact
arrangement?
P(heads)xP(heads)
xP(heads)xP(tails)xP(tails)
= (1/2)3 x (1/2)2
Another way to get exactly 3 heads: THHHT
Probability of this exact outcome
= (1/2)1 x (1/2)3 x (1/2)1 = (1/2)3 x (1/2)2
Binomial Distribution
In fact, (1/2)3 x (1/2)2 is the probability of
each unique outcome that has exactly 3
heads and 2 tails.
So, the overall probability of 3 heads and 2
tails is:
(1/2)3 x (1/2)2 + (1/2)3 x (1/2)2 + (1/2)3 x
(1/2)2 + ….. for as many unique
arrangements as there are—but how many
are there??
Binomial Distribution
Outcome Probability
THHHT (1/2)3 × (1/2)2
HHHTT (1/2)3 × (1/2)2
TTHHH (1/2)3 × (1/2)2
HTTHH (1/2)3 × (1/2)2 The probability
ways to
5
arrange 3
HHTTH (1/2)3 × (1/2)2 of each unique
heads in
HTHHT (1/2)3 × (1/2)2 outcome (note:
3 5 trials
THTHH
HTHTH
(1/2)3 × (1/2)2
(1/2)3 × (1/2)2
they are all
equal)
HHTHT (1/2)3 × (1/2)2
THHTH (1/2)3 × (1/2)2
10 arrangements × (1/2)3 × (1/2)2
5
C3 = 5!/3!2! = 10
Factorial review: n! = n(n-1)(n-2)…
Binomial Distribution
5
P(3 heads and 2 tails) = x P(heads)3 x P(tails)2 =
3
10 x (½)5=31.25%
Binomial Distribution
X= the number of heads tossed in 5 coin
tosses
p(x)
x
0 1 2 3 4 5
number of heads
Binomial Distribution
Note the general pattern emerging if you have only two possible
outcomes (call them 1/0 or yes/no or success/failure) in n independent
trials, then the probability of exactly X “successes”=
n = number of trials
X
n
n X
p (1 p )
X 1-p = probability
of failure
X=# p=
successes probability of
out of n success
trials
Binomial Distribution
Binomial Distribution
𝑿 𝑩(𝒏 , 𝒑)
Binomial Distribution - Example
𝟏
𝑿 𝑩(𝒏 , 𝒑) 𝑿 𝑩(𝟐𝟎 , ) 𝑷 ( 𝑿 =𝟏𝟎)
𝟐
If I toss a coin 20 times, what’s the
probability of getting exactly 10
heads?
20
10 10
(0.5) (0.5) 0.176
10
Binomial Distribution - Example
If I toss a coin 20 times, what’s the
probability of getting 2 or fewer
20 heads? 20!
0 20 20 7
(0.5) (0.5) (0.5) 9.5 10
0 20!0!
20 1 19 20! 20 7 5
( 0 . 5) ( 0 . 5) ( 0 . 5) 20 9. 5 10 1 . 9 10
1 19!1!
20 2 18 20! 20 7 4
(0.5) (0.5) (0.5) 190 9.5 10 1.8 10
2 18!2!
2.0110 4
𝟏
𝑿 𝑩(𝟐𝟎 , ) 𝑷 ( 𝑿 ≤ 𝟐)
𝟐
Binomial Distribution - GDC
Binomial Distribution - Question 14
C
Binomial Distribution - Question 14C+
D
Why can we just
multiply these two
values
Binomial Distribution
Binomial Distribution 14
E
Binomial Distribution
Binomial Distribution
Binomial Distribution – Expected
All probability distributions are
Value
characterized by an expected value and a
variance:
If X follows a binomial distribution
with parameters n and p: X ~ Bin
(n, p)
Then:
E(X) = np
Var (X) = np(1-p)
np (1 p )
SD (X)=
Binomial Distribution – Expected
Value
Practice Problem
1. You are performing a cohort study. If the probability
of developing disease in the exposed group is 0.05
for the study duration, then if you (randomly)
sample 500 exposed people, how many do you
expect to develop the disease? Give a margin of
error (+/- 1 standard deviation) for your estimate.
2. What’s the probability that at most 10 exposed
people develop the disease?
Binomial Distribution – Expected
Value
Answer
1. How many do you expect to develop the disease? Give a margin of
error (+/- 1 standard deviation) for your estimate.
X ~ binomial (500, 0.05)
E(X) = 500 (0.05) = 25
Var(X) = 500 (0.05) (0.95) = 23.75
StdDev(X) = square root (23.75) = 4.87
25 4.87
Binomial Distribution – Expected
Value
Answer
2. What’s the probability that at most 10 exposed
subjects develop the disease?
This is asking for a CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY: the probability of 0 getting the
disease or 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or up to 10.
P(X≤10) = P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2) + P(X=3) + P(X=4)+….+ P(X=10)=
500 0 500 500 1 499 500 2 498 500 10 490
(. 05) (. 95) (. 05) (. 95) (. 05) (. 95) ... (. 05) (. 95)
0 1 2 10
Binomial Distribution
Practice Problem:
You are conducting a case-control study of smoking and
lung cancer. If the probability of being a smoker among
lung cancer cases is 0.6, what’s the probability that in a
group of 8 cases you have:
a. Less than 2 smokers?
b. More than 5?
c. What are the expected value and variance of the number of
smokers?
Binomial Distribution
Answer
X P(X)
8
0 1(.4) =.00065
1 7
1 8(.6) (.4) =.008
2 6
2 28(.6) (.4) =.04
3 5
3 56(.6) (.4) =.12
4 4
4 70(.6) (.4) =.23
5 3
5 56(.6) (.4) =.28
6 2
6 28(.6) (.4) =.21
7 1
7 8(.6) (.4) =.090
8
8 1(.6) =.0168
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Binomial Distribution 14F+
G
Answer, continued
P(<2)=.00065 + .008 = .00865 P(>5)=.21+.09+.0168 = .3168
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
E(X) = 8 (.6) = 4.8
Var(X) = 8 (.6) (.4) =1.92
StdDev(X) = 1.38
Binomial Distribution 14F+
G
Binomial Distribution – GDC tip!
Settings:
• List 1 – DRV x
• Num Trials n
• Prob of success p
• Save P(x) to list
2
Outcomes
• P(x=0)
• P(x=1)
• P(x=2)
• P(x=3)
• P(x=4)
