Probability
Chapter Five (5)
STD121/121E – Business Statistics
Lecture Eight (8)
Content to be covered
1) Definition of probability terms
2) Types of probabilities
3) Properties of probability
4) Mutually Exclusive events
5) Non-Mutually Exclusive events
Definition of probability terms
1. Definition of probability terms.
Experiment: a planned activity whose results
yield an outcome that cannot be predicted with
certainty.
Examples:
1. Toss a coin
2. Draw 1 card from a standard deck of cards
Sample space: all possible outcomes of an
experiment. Denoted by S
Event: any subset of the sample space S;
typically denoted A, B, C, etc.
Examples
1. Toss a coin once
S = {H, T};
A = {H}, B = {T} simple events
2. Toss a die once; count dots on upper face
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
A=even # of dots on upper face
={2, 4, 6}
B=3 or fewer dots on upper face
={1, 2, 3}
Types of probabilities
2. Types of Probabilities
Subjective Probability: is the probability of an
event being based on an educated or clever
guess or expert opinion or just plain
intuition.
We cannot verify such kind of probability.
It is not widely used as it is not statistical
verified.
Objective Probability: is when the probability
of an event can be verified, usually through
repeated experiments or empirical observations.
It is extensively used in statistical analysis then
come up with stabilised probability.
Formula
Probability = Number of outcomes for a
particular event/total number of all possible
outcome
r
P (A) =
n
Class Work
1) An ordinary die is thrown. Find the probability
that the number obtained
a) Is a multiple of 3.
b) Is less than 7.
c) ls a factor of 6.
2) From a set of cards numbered 1 to 20 a card is
drawn at random. Find the probability that the
number
a) Is divisible by 4.
b) Is greater than 15.
Class Work: Solutions
1) An ordinary die is thrown. Find the probability
that the number obtained
a) Is a multiple of 3. = 2/6 = 1/3
b) Is less than 7. = 6/6 = 1
c) ls a factor of 6. = 4/6 = 2/3
2) From a set of cards numbered 1 to 20 a card is
drawn at random. Find the probability that the
number
a) Is divisible by 4. = 5/20 = 1/4
b) Is greater than 15. = 5/20 = 1/4
Properties of probability
3. Properties of Probability
1) A probability value lies only between 0 and 1
2) Probability of an impossible event = 0.
3) Probability of a certain event = 1.
4) Probabilities for a collectively exhaustive set
of events sum to one.
5) Events A and B are complementary if they are
mutually exclusive and the sum of their
probabilities is 1.
Mutually Exclusive events
4. Mutually Exclusive Events
These are events which cannot occur
together on a single trial of a random
experiment. In such cases the separate
probabilities are added to give the combined
probability.
Addition Law: If events A, B, C are mutually
exclusive, then the probability of A or B or C
happening is the sum of their individual
probabilities.
N.B: The addition law is used to solve problems
which contain the words either/or.
Examples of Mutually Exclusive
Events
Events are mutually exclusive if they
cannot happen at the same time.
1) For example, if we toss a coin, either heads or
tails might turn up, but not heads and tails at
the same time.
2) Similarly, in a single throw of a die, we can only
have one number shown at the top face.
If A and B are mutually exclusive events then
the probability of A happening OR the
probability of B happening is = P(A) + P(B).
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
Example 1
• What is the probability of a die showing a 2 or
a 5?
Practice
• The probabilities of three teams A, B and C
winning a competition are
• Calculate the probability that
• a) either A or B will win
• b) either A or B or C will win
• c) none of these teams will win
• d) neither A nor B will win
Solution/s
c) P(none will win) = 1 – P(A or B or C will win)
d) P(neither A nor B will win) = 1 – P(either A or B will win)
Non-Mutually Exclusive events
5. Non-Mutually Exclusive Events
Probability that non-mutually exclusive events A
and B or both will occur are expressed as:
P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)
A joint probability, P(A ∩ B), is the probability
that two or more events that are not mutually
exclusive can occur simultaneously.
Practice
A and B are events with P(A) = 0,2, P(B) = 0,16
and P(A and B) = 0,04.
1.1 Decide whether A and B are mutually
exclusive events and justify your decision.
1.2 Calculate P(A or B).
1.3 Calculate P(not A and B).
Practice: Solutions
A and B are events with P(A) = 0,2, P(B) = 0,16
and P(A and B) = 0,04.
1.1 Decide whether A and B are mutually
exclusive events and justify your decision.
Solution: The events are not mutually exclusive
since:
P(A and B) ≠ 0
Practice: Solutions Cont........
A and B are events with P(A) = 0,2, P(B) = 0,16
and P(A and B) = 0,04.
1.2 Calculate P(A or B).
Solution: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
= 0,2 + 0,16 - 0,04 = 0,32
Practice: Solutions Cont........
A and B are events with P(A) = 0,2, P(B) = 0,16
and P(A and B) = 0,04.
1.3 Calculate P(not A and not B).
Solution: P(not A and not B)
= 1 – [P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)]
= 1 – (0,2 + 0,16 - 0,04)
= 0,68
Thank You
