Russian ballistic missile attack on Ukraine portends new era of warfare

Two days ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a change in the country's policy for employing nuclear weapons in conflict. Then, on Thursday, Russia attacked the Ukrainian city of Dnipro with a new type of ballistic missile capable of one day delivering multiple nuclear warheads to distant targets with little warning.

Putin says his ballistic missile attack on Ukraine is a warning to the West.

These events are just part of what has been a week of escalation in the war between Russia and Ukraine. In recent days, Ukraine fired US-made ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles and UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles at targets in Russian territory for the first time. This followed approval by President Joe Biden for Ukraine to use US-provided longer-range missiles against Russian targets. Previously, Ukraine was only permitted to use them on its own territory.

In a rare televised statement Thursday, Putin said he ordered Russia's military to strike Dnipro, home to Soviet-era rocket factories, using a ballistic missile named "Oreshnik." This means "hazelnut tree" in Russian. The attack was the first use of the Oreshnik missile "under combat conditions," Putin said.

Videos from Dnipro posted on social media show multiple projectiles exploding as they impact the ground at high speed. Local residents in Dnipro said the Oreshnik missile struck an industrial plant operated by PA Pivdenmash, formerly known as Yuzhmash. The PA Pivdenmash factory previously manufactured booster stages for the Soviet-era Zenit rocket and, most recently, first-stage tanks for the US-operated Antares rocket for Northrop Grumman.

Threats from the Kremlin

Sabrina Singh, the Pentagon's deputy press secretary, called the weapon used Thursday an "experimental intermediate-range ballistic missile" based on Russia's RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile model. While the strike before dawn Thursday used conventional munitions, the impact of multiple projectiles suggests the missile employed multiple reentry vehicles, or MIRVs, similar to the way Russia might use the missile in a nuclear attack.

Singh said the missile could be refitted with different types of conventional or nuclear warheads. She said Russia notified the US government of the planned attack "briefly" before it happened through nuclear risk-reduction channels.

Ukrainian government officials initially said the attack on Dnipro was by an ICBM rather than an intermediate-range weapon, or IRBM.

ICBMs typically follow long, arcing trajectories that take the missiles into space, above the discernible atmosphere, as they travel to faraway targets. An intermediate-range missile, classified as a weapon that can travel between 3,000 and 5,500 kilometers, could also reach space, although the exact altitude reached by the Oreshnik missile was unknown Thursday.

“An IRBM and an ICBM, they can have similar flight paths. They can have high trajectories,” Singh said. “They can carry large payloads, but the main difference lies in the range and the strategic purpose.”

The Oreshnik missile launched Tuesday apparently took off from Russia’s Kapustin Yar rocket base roughly 800 kilometers from Dnipro, well away from intense fighting.

This is the first time any IRBM has been used in combat. The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, ratified by the United States and the Soviet Union in 1988, banned ground-launched IRBMs. The US pulled out of the treaty in 2019 under the first Trump administration, citing non-compliance from Russia. At the time, US officials noted that China, which was not a signatory to the treaty, possessed more than 1,000 IRBMs in its arsenal.

Putin said Western air defenses are not capable of destroying the Oreshnik missile in flight, although this claim can't be verified. He said Russia would provide warnings to Ukraine in advance of similar missile attacks in the future to allow civilians to escape danger zones.

The Oreshnik missiles strike their targets at speeds of up to Mach 10, or 2.5 to 3 kilometers per second, Putin said. "The existing air defense systems around the world, including those being developed by the US in Europe, are unable to intercept such missiles."

A global war?

In perhaps the most chilling part of his remarks, Putin said the conflict in Ukraine is "taking on global dimensions" and said Russia is entitled to use missiles against Western countries supplying weapons for Ukraine to use against Russian targets.

"In the event of escalation, we will respond decisively and in kind," Putin said. "I advise the ruling elites of those countries planning to use their military forces against Russia to seriously consider this."

The change in nuclear doctrine authorized by Putin earlier this week also lowers the threshold for Russia’s use of nuclear weapons to counter a conventional attack that threatens Russian “territorial integrity.”

This seems to have already happened. Ukraine launched an offensive into Russia’s Kursk region in August, taking control of more than 1,000 square kilometers of Russian land. Russian forces, assisted by North Korean troops, are staging a counteroffensive to try to retake the territory.

Singh called Russia’s invitation of North Korean troops “escalatory” and said Putin could “choose to end this war today.”

US officials say Russian forces are suffering some 1,200 deaths or injuries per day in the war. In September, The Wall Street Journal reported that US intelligence sources estimated that a million Ukrainians and Russians had been killed or wounded in the war.

The UN Human Rights Office most recently reported that 11,973 civilians have been killed, including 622 children, since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022.

“We warned Russia back in 2022 not to do this, and they did it anyways, so there are consequences for that,” Singh said. “But we don't want to see this escalate into a wider regional conflict. We don't seek war with Russia.”