As North Korean troops march toward Ukraine, does a Russian quid pro quo reach space?

Earlier this week, North Korea apparently completed a successful test of its most powerful intercontinental ballistic missile, lofting it nearly 4,800 miles into space before the projectile fell back to Earth.

This solid-fueled, multi-stage missile, named the Hwasong-19, is a new tool in North Korea's increasingly sophisticated arsenal of weapons. It has enough range—perhaps as much as 9,320 miles (15,000 kilometers), according to Japan's government—to strike targets anywhere in the United States.

The test flight of the Hwasong-19 on Thursday was North Korea's first test of a long-range missile in nearly a year, coming as North Korea deploys some 10,000 troops inside Russia just days before the US presidential election. US officials condemned the missile launch as a "provocative and destabilizing" action in violation of UN Security Council resolutions.

The budding partnership between Russia and North Korea has evolved for several years. Russian President Vladimir Putin has met with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on multiple occasions, most recently in Pyongyang in June. Last September, the North Korean dictator visited Putin at the Vostochny Cosmodrome, Russia's newest launch base, where the leaders inspected hardware for Russia's Angara rocket.

In this photo distributed by North Korean state media, a Hwasong-19 missile fires out of a launch tube somewhere in North Korea on October 31, 2024.

Credit: KCNA

The visit to Vostochny fueled speculation that Russia might provide missile and space technology to North Korea in exchange for Kim's assistance in the fight against Ukraine. This week, South Korea's defense minister said his government has identified several areas where North Korea likely seeks help from Russia.

"In exchange for their deployment, North Korea is very likely to ask for technology transfers in diverse areas, including the technologies relating to tactical nuclear weapons technologies related to their advancement of ICBMs, also those regarding reconnaissance satellites and those regarding SSBNs [ballistic missile submarines] as well," said Kim Yong-hyun, South Korea's top military official, on a visit to Washington.

The good news, Kim said, is that Russia's conventional weapons are "not as formidable as we expected" after seeing their use against Ukraine.

"Therefore, even with the possibility of Russia's cutting-edge technology flowing into North Korea and thereby resulting in the advancement of North Korea's military technology, I believe it is possible for us to overcome such challenges based on our robust (US-South Korean) alliance."

Trading space tech for lives

It now appears as if the relationship is blossoming. Last month, US government officials revealed that North Korea has shipped approximately 10,000 troops to train in eastern Russia, the first time Russia has invited foreign soldiers onto its territory in more than a century.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Thursday many of the North Korean forces have moved closer to the Ukrainian border.

"The most recent information indicates that as many as 8,000 of those North Korean forces have been deployed to the Kursk region," Blinken said. "We’ve not yet seen these troops deploy into combat against Ukrainian forces, but we would expect that to happen in the coming days."

Ukrainian military units have occupied a small portion of Russia's Kursk region since August while intense fighting continues within Ukraine's borders.

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said US intelligence officials believe Russian forces have trained North Korean soldiers in artillery, drone, and basic infantry operations, including trench-clearing. He said the North Korean troops are wearing Russian uniforms, suggesting Russia intends to use them on the front lines against Ukraine.

"One of the reasons that Russia is turning to these North Korean troops is that it’s desperate," Blinken said. "Putin has been throwing more and more Russians into a meat grinder of his own making in Ukraine. Now, he’s turning to North Korean troops, and that is a clear sign of weakness."

Blinken and Austin said North Korean forces involved in combat or combat support roles against Ukraine would become legitimate military targets. On Friday, the Biden administration announced another round of military assistance for Ukraine.

In recent months, Russian forces fighting against Ukraine have suffered as many as 1,200 casualties per day, Austin said. This attrition could be playing a role in Putin turning to foreign troops to avoid deploying more Russian troops to the battlefield, a move that could prove unpopular among everyday Russians.

In this pool photograph distributed by the Russian state agency Sputnik, Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un toast during a reception at the Mongnangwan Reception House in Pyongyang on June 19, 2024.

Credit: Vladimir Smirnov / POOL / AFP)

Reports last year suggested that the Russian space agency, Roscosmos, started a recruitment campaign to form a volunteer militia to join the country's war effort against Ukraine. Roscosmos offered its employees a sign-up bonus and a monthly salary far above the wages paid to most employees in Russia's space program.

The arrival of North Korean troops near the battlefield is clearly escalatory. US officials previously released evidence Russia has used ballistic missiles produced in North Korea in its war against Ukraine. In exchange for missiles and other military munitions, Russia has shipped oil, corn, wheat, and other food products to North Korea.

But Russia's support doesn't end there. A White House spokesperson said in January that North Korea is seeking military assistance from Russia in violation of international sanctions, "including fighter aircraft, surface-to-air missiles, armored vehicles, ballistic missile production equipment or materials, and other advanced technologies."

North Korea launched a new type of orbital-class rocket in May, using kerosene and liquid oxygen as propellants in place of more stable—though more toxic and less efficient—hydrazine and nitrogen tetroxide. This was a sudden, unexpected leap in capability for North Korea that raised questions about Russian involvement.

Austin said he hasn't seen any evidence that Russia contributed to the debut flight of the Hwasong-19 missile this week, but US analysts are still evaluating information about the launch. Generally, Austin said, "technology would be at the top of the list" of products or know-how that Russia might provide North Korea, which "stands a chance of gaining in this exchange.