Consensus Study Report
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This activity was supported by the Gulf Research Program of the National Academy of Sciences. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.
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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Compounding Disasters in Gulf Coast Communities, 2020–2021: Impacts, Findings, and Lessons Learned. Washington, DC: National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/27170.
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COMMITTEE ON COMPOUNDING DISASTERS IN GULF COAST COMMUNITIES, 2020–2021: IMPACTS, FINDINGS, AND LESSONS LEARNED
ROY E. WRIGHT (Chair), President and Chief Executive Officer, Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety
JEFF BYARD, Vice President of Operations, Team Rubicon
CRAIG COLTEN, Professor of Geography, Louisiana State University (Emeritus)
TRACY KIJEWSKI-CORREA, William J. Pulte Director, Pulte Institute for Global Development, Keough School of Global Affairs, University of Notre Dame; Professor of Engineering and Global Affairs; Academic Director, Integration Lab
J. MARSHALL SHEPHERD, Georgia Athletic Association Distinguished Professor; Director, Atmospheric Sciences Program, University of Georgia
JAMES M. SHULTZ, Associate Professor, Epidemiology Population Health Sciences, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine
CHAUNCIA WILLIS-JOHNSON, Chief Executive Officer, Institute for Diversity and Inclusion in Emergency Management
Study Staff
SASHA ALLISON, Research Associate (as of June 2022)
DANIEL BURGER, Study Director, Senior Program Manager
JENNIFER COHEN, Senior Program Officer
ROBERT GASIOR, Program Officer (as of January 2023)
JUAN SANDOVAL, Senior Program Assistant (until June 2022)
JESSICA SIMMS, Program Officer
EMILY TWIGG, Senior Program Officer (until December 2022)
Consultant
JAN SUMMERS, Copy editor
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Reviewers
This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.
We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or
recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by SUSAN CUTTER, University of South Carolina, and DOUGLAS MASSEY, Princeton University. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.
3 COMPOUNDING DISASTERS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION: 2020–2021
Impacts of Compounding Disasters in Regions of Texas, Louisiana, and Alabama
Harris and Galveston Counties, Texas
Cameron and Calcasieu Parishes, Louisiana
Baldwin and Mobile Counties, Alabama
Key Themes from the Information-Gathering Sessions
4 INTERDEPENDENT SYSTEMS IN THE CONTEXT OF COMPOUNDING DISASTERS
A Systems Approach to Understanding Compounding Disasters
The Pandemic, Vulnerabilities, and System Interdependencies
Impact of Regionality on Disaster Recovery
Lessons Recognized and Learned
Lessons Recognized and Learned: Themes from the Information-Gathering Sessions
Lessons Recognized and Learned: NGOs, CBOs, and Government Officials
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Preface
Disasters interrupt human life. Experiencing a single disaster—be it a hurricane, tropical cyclone, tornado, flood, severe winter storm, or global pandemic—can set off a domino effect of suffering and displacement from normalcy, home, and community for weeks, months, years, or even permanently. Throughout human history, these disruptions have reshaped communities and the prospects of current and future next generations to live healthy, fulfilling lives.
However, individual disasters do not occur in isolation within a community’s history. So, what happens when multiple disasters coincide in time and space or occur in such rapid succession that a community has not recovered basic functionality before a new disaster recovery process begins? With each successive punch, vulnerabilities increase, heightening the risk that the next event could provide a knockout blow. These are compounding disasters.
The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine’s Gulf Research Program commissioned this study to shed light on the particular experience of Gulf of Mexico communities that endured multiple disasters within an all too brief time frame. The cavalcade of disasters that struck the region between 2020 and 2021 afforded little opportunity to recover between events, stressed systems that underpin critical community functions, and brought an acute focus to the physical, health, and social vulnerabilities that predispose the region to potentially calamitous outcomes.
Compounding disasters extend and occur well beyond the Gulf of Mexico, yet the factors in play throughout the Gulf region offer a window—even a magnifying glass—to understand the complexities of risk and to tease out deep learnings and discover pathways that are broadly applicable to building adaptive capacity beyond the occurrence of individual events and most common hazards. While the inflection point of a weather or health disaster may be placed within a specific time frame, the effects often persist for years, resulting in the destabilization of communities across generations.
Why this report now? Most in public policy and disaster management take too limited a view of disasters—focused on the event directly in front of them. Given the interconnected realties of disasters that transcend temporal and spatial boundaries, a different view is required.
As a nation, it is imperative and increasingly urgent that we more fully communicate the complex nature of the threats that confront our communities. Rapidly intensifying and stronger tropical cyclones may increase due to climate change. We do not choose the time or place of the next pandemic. By continuing to build more in harm’s way and failing to address societal vulnerabilities, we are changing the baseline denominator of disaster risk. Even if the storms were comparable in intensity to prior eras, the effect of those storms continues to grow (sometimes exponentially) as we expand the bull’s eye with more structures and more people in the pathway.
When more people are within the zone of impact and then the frequency or severity ramps up, we are on course for more hardship and displacement. Without learning the lessons from our past and growing the adaptive capacities of communities, the effects of compounding disasters will overwhelm us.
This report would not have been possible without the generous contribution of numerous community stakeholders, leaders, and experts. The Committee on Compounding Disasters in Gulf Coast Communities, 2020–2021: Impacts, Findings, and Lessons Learned is particularly grateful to the community leaders from Houston-Galveston, Cameron-Calcasieu, and Mobile-Baldwin, whose personal experience and understanding of these issues is unrivaled and coupled with an unwavering commitment to lean in and make necessary changes before the next disaster occurs in their communities. Additionally, the committee thanks Dr. Stephen Strader, Villanova University, and Dr. Jennifer Trivedi, University of Delaware, for their scholarship and production of commissioned papers that augmented the committee’s fact-finding process. Dan Wegendt provided his creative talents in helping the committee graphically depict compounding disaster
risk. Finally, the committee acknowledges the staff from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine who served this committee with distinction. Complex concepts, intricate logistics, and insightful editing came together to create a fulsome report and conclusions because of their tireless investment and support.
Roy E. Wright, Chair
Committee on Compounding Disasters in Gulf Coast Communities, 2020–2021: Impacts, Findings, and Lessons Learned
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