:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Oct 21 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 21-Oct 23 2024 is 4.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 21-Oct 23 2024

             Oct 21       Oct 22       Oct 23
00-03UT       1.33         4.33         2.67     
03-06UT       1.67         2.67         2.67     
06-09UT       1.33         2.67         2.33     
09-12UT       1.33         2.67         2.33     
12-15UT       1.33         2.67         2.33     
15-18UT       1.33         2.67         2.33     
18-21UT       1.67         2.67         2.33     
21-00UT       1.67         2.67         2.00     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. 

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 21-Oct 23 2024

              Oct 21  Oct 22  Oct 23
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 21-Oct 23 2024

              Oct 21        Oct 22        Oct 23
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) blackouts over
21-23 Oct.