Ben Matthews

This FT article has a fancy graphic illustrating the layers of debt in private equity, but -- despite my prior post warning about the risks of debt layering in PE -- this article is inaccurate scaremongering. Here’s the key line: “Much of this lending is ultimately underpinned by the financial health of a fund’s portfolio companies. Yet every transaction ends up adding more leverage to heavily indebted businesses, which can make them more vulnerable in a downturn.” This statement is fundamentally incorrect. From the leverage used by General Partners or Limited Partners on their overall private equity portfolios to the use of subscription lines, secondary fund leverage, and leverage by funds purchasing GP stakes—none of these add leverage to the individual businesses or increase their susceptibility to economic downturns. The only mechanism that does add leverage to a business is a dividend recapitalization. However, the alternative is typically the PE firm selling the business to realize its investment, where the acquirer, especially if it’s another PE firm, would likely employ the same amount of leverage. Net Asset Value (NAV) loans may represent leverage on leverage from an LP’s perspective, but they do not increase the portfolio company’s debt or its bankruptcy risk during a downturn. Instead, they merely increase the possibility that the GP might need to sell sooner than desired to repay fund-level debt. Therefore, the only factor impacting a portfolio company’s failure probability is dividend recapitalization. The bank’s expertise is to assess the risk of its debt investment in the company. Whether a GP sells a stake in their management company, an LP sells a stake to a secondary fund, or the fund uses a subscription loan (a short-term loan backed by LP capital commitments to optimize investment IRR by delaying capital calls) to purchase the company—none of these scenarios affect the portfolio company’s ability to weather a downturn. “There should not be a pocket of the market that touches on so much of the economy in such a sizeable way, where we can say, ‘oh there’s leverage,’ and then very few of us can explain what that leverage means and why it might—or might not—be risky,” said Victoria Ivashina, a professor at Harvard Business School specializing in private capital. I can only assume Professor Victoria Ivashina was either unaware of the article’s specifics or, as a private markets expert, she is 'one of a few' (?) who could have alleviated the author’s concerns about this ‘web of debt.’ Moreover, where is the causality here? There is no indication (other than the title of the article) that PE firms are coercing banks into making these loans. The title could just as easily have been “How Banks Have Mired PE Shops in Potentially Depression-Inducing Debt.” Both parties willingly engage in these transactions, and as new debt products emerge, banks are as proactive in marketing them to PE firms as the firms are in seeking them out.

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Big news in grocery retail M&A: Albertsons Companies has officially called off its USD 25 billion merger with Kroger, more than two years after announcing the deal. The decision follows rulings from state and federal judges blocking the transaction on antitrust grounds. In response, Albertsons has reaffirmed its standalone strategy and - for good order - filed a lawsuit against Kroger alleging the company failed to use "best efforts" and take "all actions necessary" to get the deal over the antitrust line. It's not uncommon for parties to get litigious when deals fall apart, but Albertsons (and its shareholder Cerberus Capital) seems pretty peeved about this one, having spent "hundreds of millions of dollars" 😨 seeking approval for the merger. A key nuance lies in the merger agreement's language: all the antitrust-related performance obligations in the agreement are based on a "reasonable best efforts" standard *except* for the clause relating specifically to Kroger’s obligations, which are held to the stronger "best efforts" standard—a small but significant distinction. It's unlikely this situation will be resolved anytime soon, but it will be interesting to see how it develops.

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Forerunner Ventures just closed a $500M fund, doubling down on consumer tech at a time when many VCs have pulled back. With nearly $3B in historical AUM, FV recently led rounds into AI-driven startups like Daydream, Pie, and Mindtrip, Inc., building on their success with popular brands (and exited investments) such as Glossier, Inc. and Warby Parker and Dollar Shave Club. Kristen Green said it best: “Today’s consumers expect more—better quality, personalization, and smarter solutions." Are we on the verge of the next big wave in consumer tech? Let me know your thoughts. #Consumer #VentureCapital #AI #Startups #Innovation https://lnkd.in/g7Db7UhU

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100% agree with Phil Burns - there are so many opportunities for PE to help their investments add value - innovation, operational efficiency, service expansion, partnerships, front-line execution, GTM to name a few. [now for the shameless plug] Good quality CDD, with lots of primary research and data analysis, helps investors zero in on these growth opportunities which drive PE returns and benefits the whole economy

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M&A will grow in 2025! Another factor: "Currently there are about 450 technology companies worth $1 billion or more owned by private equity, and half of those companies have been in their portfolios for five or more years...getting toward the end of the typical three to seven year investment hold period after which PE typically looks for an exit, CFO Dive previously reported." #Mergers #Acquisitions #ExternalGrowth #CUSOs #CreditUnions #PrivateEquity Capstone Strategic

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Houlihan Lokey is pleased to present its latest Equipment-as-a-Service Market Update.   The Equipment-as-a-Service team covers a wide range of business models, including traditional equipment rental, specialty equipment rental, route-based equipment services, transportation equipment services, vehicle fleet management, equipment dealerships, asset pooling services and infrastructure and municipal equipment services. Find out more in our latest market update here: https://lnkd.in/eqjJRqbz

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Great analysis of recent #vc trends. Thank you Kaela Roeder and Technical.ly for including my thoughts in the piece. My "expanded" two cents below for anyone curious... It is easy to get excited by what is happening in venture capital these days given the advent of AI. However, for early-stage startups, the numbers tell a more nuanced story. Early-stage deal volume in Q4-2023 was down 66% from the peak (Q4-2021) and a quarter of the deals were down rounds. In 2024, volumes stayed fairly flat relative to 2023 levels (signalizing a normalization to pre-pandemic VC activity) and 32% of deals were down rounds in Q1 (a worsening since year end). Early-stage valuations have spiked back up this year – a pleasant boon for some founders. But, this inflation is largely driven by the excitement around AI and strong demand for capital-efficient, high-growth companies. Many startups have tried to become “dot AI” businesses overnight; however, such tactics are not the “silver bullet” to fundraising challenges and growth. With limited time and capital, funds are on the hunt for companies with bulletproof fundamentals or those with exponential growth potential. If you don’t check one of these two boxes, the VC world looks fundamentally different for you. Locally, there are some positive tailwinds. The D.C. area has outpaced other metro areas in adding AI jobs due in large part to the defense industry and an increasing number of tech companies opening-up federal outposts. Over the long-term, this will be very positive for D.C. startup growth and talent.

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I'm excited to share Houlihan Lokey latest Bike Market Report, offering a detailed analysis of trends, consumer behaviors, and innovations shaping the cycling industry. This report provides essential insights to help industry leaders and stakeholders capitalize on emerging opportunities and drive growth. Explore the full report here: https://lnkd.in/dwvcs48i #BikeInsights #CyclingIndustry #Innovation #Sustainability #Management #MergersAndAcquisitions #PrivateEquity #InvestmentBanking

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Is Now the Best Time to Raise a Private Equity Fund? According to industry leaders, it just might be. "I’m much more optimistic at this point in the cycle in 2024 than I was in 2023 and 2022," says Andy Lund, global co-head of Houlihan Lokey's Private Funds Group. Despite expectations of a slowdown, the first half of 2024 has been unexpectedly successful for PE managers raising capital. U.S.-based funds closed on $155 billion by the end of June, slightly ahead of the first half of 2023 (PitchBook Q2 2024 US PE Breakdown). Alex Russ, head of North America for Evercore's Private Funds Group, sees this as an ideal moment for GPs with open funds. "We saw fewer new fundraise launches in 2024 than in 2022 and 2023, leading to a slight easing, which we expect to continue into the second half of this year," he notes. However, challenges remain. LP capital is still largely locked until M&A and exit activities resume. Evercore anticipates flat PE fundraising figures for 2024 compared to 2023. Moreover, other asset classes are vying for already limited institutional capital, with private credit showing particularly strong growth. In this context, Maria Konnikova’s "The Biggest Bluff" offers an insightful analogy. Inspired by "Theory of Games and Economic Behavior" by John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern, the book explores von Neumann's belief that poker epitomizes the delicate balance between skill and chance that governs life. Doing well at poker isn’t just about playing well; it’s about playing well relative to everyone else. And even with the best strategies, luck plays a critical role. As Nobel-winning economist Daniel Kahneman notes, "The successful funds in any given year are mostly lucky; they have a good roll of the dice. There is general agreement among researchers that nearly all stock pickers, whether they know it or not—and few of them do—are playing a game of chance." The last two years were like drawing a bad hand in poker for those raising funds. The book also emphasizes the importance of thinking like a Strategist—something I’ve honed throughout my career. Each move requires reassessment based on new information. You need a plan that evolves with feedback and supports long-term, good decision-making. If you’ve lost your chips, was it due to an unlucky situation—or because your strategy was flawed? A recurring mantra of Poker Hall of Famer Erik Seidel is "less certainty, more inquiry." If that becomes your guiding principle, not only will you actively listen, but you will also adapt and grow. For GPs, strengthening relationships with existing LPs is more crucial than ever. Now is the time to leverage your learnings and craft compelling narratives that showcase your commitment to value creation and strategic growth. By highlighting your firm's ability to navigate complex market dynamics, you can strengthen LP alignment and foster the partnerships needed for long-term success.

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LP Tip #20 out of #50: To re-up or not to re-up A re-up refers to an LP making an additional investment in a fund where they previously invested. Before we dive in I want to share that there are reasons an LP may not to re-up which are not in your control. Here is a short list: ➡️ The LP may have evolved their strategy and needs to scale back the #️⃣ of funds they invested in.   ➡️ The LP was never set up to re-up in the first place. ➡️ The LP could be an individual that found themselves in a cash crunch and overly exposed to venture.  I'm assuming that when you got your investment that the LP explicitly told you they do re-ups. Please do not assume they do. My expectation is also that the LP dug in to properly underwrite the fund. 🏴 Re-ups are not automatic. An LP will have to re-underwrite each fund. The speed of the re-up also depends on how much work was done in the initial investment, who led the investment, level of confidence there existed when that investment was done, and current pipeline of funds. There are 4 flags that may cause an LP to walk away. 1️⃣ Partner Breakups/Changes and Team Turnover:  The biggest risk in Partnerships are whether the Partners will stay together. One LP gave me a framework on how to think through this issue that has stuck with me. Partnership is like a marriage. If one feels there is potential for a breakup, does one believe it will be an amicable breakup? Or, does one believe the spouses will never talk again? If it is an amicable split that is manageable. The Partners can find a way to support the fund. Then the question becomes whether the LP wants to back the Partner/s that remain.  If there is high team turnover. The LP will want to investigate because team stability is used as a proxy for firm sustainability and ability to scale. 2️⃣ Fund Does not Execute on what they Sold the LP:  The LP “bought” something specific and typically it is because they were missing this strategy or wanted exposure to a strategy for the portfolio they were constructing. An institutional LP will invest and write a detailed investment memo flagging all the things you said you were going to do and then go back and compare when you come back to ask for money. If for example you pitched a generalist seed stage fund and you show up asking for money sharing that you invested in deeptech at A that will cause alarm. The same can be said for the number of companies you promised to invest in or check sizes you wrote. If there are big differences LPs will want to know why. 3️⃣ Bad Actions  The fund manager/s does something that is unethical. This is a no go for an LP.  What if the situation is not clearcut? This is different for everyone and requires discussions b/w GP and LP, but most LPs don't want headline risk. 4️⃣ Continuous Underperformance  If it's early days an LP will look at some key indicators to see how you are progressing over time.

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“Repel as much as they attract.” At our Innate Capital Partners portfolio gathering last quarter, the presentation by Maureen Farmer, CEO Advisor and Stephen Pitt-Walker, JD, FGIA included a provocative insight: “Powerful brands repel as much as they attract.” I was reminded of this insight in a store when my eight-year-old son immediately gravitated towards a candy called Toxic Waste. The product is further labeled Hazardously Sour Candy. A strong brand both (1) says what it is and (2) signals what is isn’t. This applies to brands for consumer products, business services, and - very much so - to private equity investors. To build a powerful brand, don’t try to appeal to everyone. Toxic Waste is not for the faint-hearted. It’s not for people looking for established confectioneries or safe brands. The brand does, however, resonate with a segment of customers. My son eagerly bought Toxic Waste and he enjoyed the treat. Candy Dynamics Richard Deer Laura King Matthew Quint Center on Global Brand Leadership Columbia Business School Columbia Business School Private Equity Program Laura Sosa, EdD, MBA, CMA Elizabeth Rzasa, M.A. #branding #marketing

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Darden Restaurants recently reported its quarterly results, showcasing resilience amidst a challenging environment. While Olive Garden faced a decline in same-store sales for the second consecutive quarter, Darden's overall performance remained steady, with earnings per share surpassing expectations at $2.65 and revenue reaching $2.96 billion. Looking forward to fiscal 2025, Darden projects a promising outlook with expected earnings per share between $9.40 and $9.60 and anticipated net sales of $11.8 billion to $11.9 billion. The company's LongHorn Steakhouse segment notably reported a 4% increase in same-store sales, underscoring Darden's effective management and operational strength. With plans to invest $550 million to $600 million in capital expenditures, Darden is poised to enhance its offerings and maintain its competitive edge in the market. Read More Here: https://lnkd.in/eFgDC97p #hospitality #restaurants #technology #innovation Branded Hospitality Ventures Angelo Fama Jr. John Espy Dave George Daryl L. Cunningham Lisa McDowell Robert Anderson Ali Charri

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There's growing speculation about what lies ahead for the economy in 2025. Join us as we explore the potential macroeconomic shifts on the horizon.

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Fund manager GP stake investments are one of the most active strategies in private markets with limited partners across the globe committing to GP stakes funds, and fund managers selling stakes to such fund managers, with almost every manager of decent quality entertaining such discussions. As long-standing GP stake and seeding investors, we have experienced several pros and cons which we can discuss later, but this is great data shared by Ed Stubbings and created by leading private capital markets advisor Houlihan Lokey listing GP stakes deals over the past 1 year. More deals to come and I would look forward to catching up with Houlihan Lokey on the market. Thank you for the insights! #gpstakes #alternativeassets #fundmanagers #capitalmarkets #data #fundmanagers #privatemarkets #privateequity #limitedpartners

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The lack of exits from both private equity and venture capital funds over the last few years continues to have a significant impact on the behavior of large investors. Per the attached article from Institutional Investor, single family offices have moved more capital into fixed income and liquid equites (ie. the stock market). With yields on fixed income securities now higher, the move into that asset class is easy to understand. I would expect a larger allocation to fixed income to endure, as interest rates are likely to remain at or near their current level for the foreseeable future. However, I suspect that the move into liquid stocks is driven more by the need for near-term liquidity, rather than any structural change in asset allocation philosophy. The truth is that family offices need both access to growth companies AND liquidity. If exits in the private markets begin to uptick again, I would expect family offices to once again deploy capital to PE and VC. Private equity and venture capital continue to be the most effective method to access the return profile of growth-stage companies. That is not going to change. However, the liquidity side of the equation needs to return to normalcy. #privateequity #venturecapital #innovation #entrepreneurship #founders #startups #investing Endeavor Colorado Zeb King Tegan Stanbach Kathryn Dickson https://lnkd.in/g4rqxzhQ

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Very similar and a complement to Independent Sponsor led transactions targeting $15 million to $100 million plus EV, search fund deals target acquiring companies for around $15 million EV, priced at approximately seven (7x) times EBITDA or less. Over the years, companies tracked by Stanford have shown annualized equity returns exceeding 30%! The target universe for search funds and Independent Sponsors is substantial, with nearly 200,000 businesses valued between $10 million and $100 million, according to NAICS Association data. Search funds often seek out companies with retiring family founders looking for liquidity. Middle and lower-middle market financial sponsors generally avoid targeting companies worth $15 million due to high overhead costs and the need to deploy significant amounts of capital. However, for individual entrepreneurs, these micro-sized deals are not only accessible but also offer attractive bargains. This has led to the emergence of specialized search PE funds alongside Independent Sponsor transactions. Great article by the FT. #privatecapital #privatemarkets #privateequity #buyouts #growthequity #independentsponsor #searchfund #middlemarket #smallbuyout #sme #institutionalinvestor #alpha #moic #irr #privatecredit #privatedebt #familybusiness #founderowned #fT

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In a new op-ed I penned for Institutional Investor, I discuss the changing strategic buyer landscape for enterprise software companies. With software continuing to grow well in excess of GDP, and digital transformation at the top of C-suites’ agendas, the trend of multi-billion dollar software companies being acquired by non-traditional buyers should continue to accelerate. As always, all comments are welcome!

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🚀 2024’s Most Active Private Equity Firms: Who’s Leading the Charge? Private equity activity has been buzzing over the past year, and this chart highlights the most active PE firms based on completed deals as a percentage of their total portfolio in 2024. Some key takeaways: 🔹 Lightyear Capital tops the list with a remarkable 62.1% activity rate, completing 130 deals. 🔹 TSG Consumer follows closely, completing 57.7% of its portfolio deals. 🔹 Larger players like Blackstone (30%) and Leonard Green & Partners (28.8%) maintain a steady balance between volume and selectivity, with portfolios exceeding 300+ investments. 🔹 Firms like Altas Partners and Platinum Equity are making their mark with consistent mid-tier activity. 🔹 Genstar Capital (10.5%) and Charlesbank (12.4%) wrap up the list with focused deal-making strategies. It’s fascinating to see how strategies differ across firms, from high activity relative to portfolio size to more measured approaches. Share your thoughts below! 👇 #PrivateEquity #InvestmentBanking #MergersAndAcquisitions #M&A #PETrends #FinanceInsights #FOCUSInvestmentBanking

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