Gary Morabito

Why are Private Credit people always smiling? Too many reasons to list, but CFA Society Atlanta had a great Direct Lending discussion this week with Ross Van der Linden of Golub Capital. A big thanks to Ross and Golub for sharing their views on opportunities within Direct Lending! #privateequity #privatecredit #finance #investors #management #mergersandacquisitions #assetmanagement #capitalmarkets #business #alternatives #middlemarket #directlending

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December indigestion caused by the Federal Reserve's comments today? The S&P was humming along until the FOMC cut 25 bps as expected, and the changes to the statement were trivial (although the vote to cut wasn’t unanimous). Chairman Powell wasn’t a reassuring voice at this meeting, and the market’s confusion led to hawkish projections and speculations for 2025. The S&P 500 closed at the day's lows, -3%. Capital flow was heavy at 145%. Today's move lower in the stock market was significant. We’re below the 50-day moving average for the first time since September. We’re not oversold (yet), and we’re (only) back at mid-October levels. From a technical standpoint, the rest of December should be a race for the exits….but dip-buyers will (most likely?) do their thing. It's worked for the last 12+ years, so why stop now? Considering today’s drop is rooted in a market unprepared for a Fed that wasn’t gung-ho with spiking the punch bowl a lot more, it could mean that once investors relax and think, they won’t believe this is all that bearish. If that’s the case, watch for an enjoyable bounce back. In summary, the fundamental landscape isn’t radically altered; however, the emotional landscape temporarily is.

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If you think portfolio risk management is just about diversification, think again. This article sheds light on some surprising strategies that challenge common perceptions. Here are some thought-provoking takeaways: - Did you know that reducing the number of investments in a portfolio can sometimes actually decrease risks? It's all about strategic selection. - Contrary to popular belief, actively managing risk doesn't necessarily mean more frequent trading. In fact, a hands-off approach can be a smart move. - One of the key points discussed is the importance of understanding the correlation between investments, a factor often overlooked in risk management strategies. - Asymmetric risk and the role it plays in portfolio management is explored, offering a fresh perspective on balancing risk and return. - Ever considered tail risk hedging? This article dives into this lesser-known strategy that can enhance risk management effectiveness. Share your thoughts and feelings on these unconventional risk management strategies. https://lnkd.in/ecgSpH93

joel guglietta, phd proprietary Labor Market Strength Index—a composite of Non-Farm Payrolls, the Unemployment Rate, the KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index, and Jobless Claims—has taken a notable downturn in recent weeks. The value of this multi-factor indicator lies in its ability to capture broader trends. And right now, the trend has fallen to recessionary level. Popular indicators are supporting this view: the Sahm rule has been triggered, the three-month average for private payroll gains has also fallen to recessionary levels while DoubleLine CEO Jeff Gundlach unemployment rules have also been triggered, when the unemployment rate surpasses its 36-month moving average, it has historically signaled an impending recession. We increased long position in 2Y U.S. Treasuries. The decision reflects our view that softening labor markets could weigh on growth and, in turn, exert downward pressure on short-term rates. We refrain from turning outright bearish as some of our leading indicators (survey based) are pointing toward a potential US re-acceleration. These survey probably reflect the optimism around Trump policies and will have to be confirmed by real activity in the coming months. #InvestmentStrategy #MacroInsights #LaborMarket #Treasuries #RiskManagement

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⭕ Harnessing the Power of Ichigo Ichie (一期一会) In this year’s President’s Letter, I reflect on the markets, the balance between long-term resilience and short-term adaptability, and our excitement about the opportunities ahead. 📊 Link to full letter is below Orbis Investments

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Should be an interesting conversation on preparing businesses for sale in todays market. Please join if you can.

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The year 2024 was another exceptional year at SNB Capital investment banking. Our talented team of investment bankers closed 24 transactions across our lines of business demonstrating the strength of our deep client relationships and the value we continue to add advising our clients on their strategic transactions. We continued our market leadership position in both Equity and Debt Capital Markets (with market share in excess of 50% and 70% respectively based on size of closed transactions) and have emerged as a visible M&A advisor. For the fourth year in a row, we won awards from Euromoney, Global Finance, Tadawul and Arqaam in recognition of the value we continue to add to our strategic clients, and the contribution to the effort of the continuous development of the Saudi Capital Markets. We led the ECM follow-on market closing 5 transactions that reignited products like fully marketed offering and accelerated bookbuilding that were absent for a while. We acted as global coordinators, financial advisors, lead underwriters, book runners and lead managers on visible transactions including: *. Government of Saudi Arabia/Saudi Aramco Fully Marketed Secondary Offering (SAR 42.1bn, the largest secondary market offering in EMEA region since the year 2000) *. Public Investment Fund/ Saudi Telecom Company Accelerated bookbuilding (SAR 3.86bn, the first KSA overnight and the largest ever ABB transaction in Saudi Arabia and MENA region) *. Saudi Manpower Solutions Company IPO (SAR 900m) *. MBC Group IPO (SAR 831m) *. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia largest ever intra-day US dollar bond offering ($12bn) *. The early redemption and simultaneous repurchase of KSA Government Sukuk program managed by the National Debt Management Center (the largest to date, SAR 63.1bn) *. The third drawdown under the Public Investment Fund EMTN program and its largest to date (US$5bn) *. Saudi National Bank Sustainable Sukuk (US$850m) and Additional Tier 1 Capital Sukuk (SAR 6bn) *. First ever US$ Short Term Sukuk issued on-shore in KSA for SNB Capital *. Saudi Aramco dollar bond issue (US$6bn) *. Merger of Qassim and Hail Cement Companies, the first public to public transaction in the sector *. Public Investment Fund acquisition of Saudi Iron & Steel Company (Hadeed) and the integration of Rajhi Steel to create the KSA steel national champion (officially closed in 2024) *. Abu Dhabi National Insurance Company (ADNIC) acquisition of Allianz Global 51% stake in Allianz Saudi Fransi; the first SNBC cross boarder M&A transaction in the insurance sector (officially closed in 2024) Our thanks and gratitudes to the distinguished teams at the Capital Market Authority and Saudi Tadawul Group and the Saudi Exchange for their unparalleled support throughout the year.

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In times of political uncertainty and shifting SEC regulations, asset managers face unprecedented challenges. During the FT Live’s Future of Asset Management North America conference, Mike Tae, my colleague and Co-President of Investor Communications Solutions, shared valuable insights on navigating these complexities. I'm delighted to highlight Mike’s perspective on staying ahead in this regulatory landscape. See how Broadridge is helping asset managers tackle these challenges and stay informed on the latest regulatory news impacting the industry: http://spklr.io/6041vorT #FTFOAM #RegulatoryInsights #FinancialServices

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Despite the recent Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) reports being lauded as "strong" and "solid," a critical underlying metric tells a different story. The Implied Hiring Rate has actually plummeted in the last two NFP reports, exposing a glaring disconnect between surface-level praise and deeper labor market dynamics. Is this time different?

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A great article by Michael Swinsburg on the evolving role of the COO, highlighting how they are transitioning from behind-the-scenes to front-facing leaders, managing diverse teams and geographies to drive strategic growth and innovation. The focus on resilience, renewal, robustness, and relationships is spot on, particularly in today’s complex and fast-changing landscape. https://lnkd.in/gjcjJqZW

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In the latest issue of Moelis's Clean Technology Monthly, we highlight what's in focus this earnings season in the sector, examine the rapidly growing U.S. data center market and take a closer look at why the transformer industry is poised for growth. We also sit down with the CEO of Budderfly to discuss challenges and opportunities as an EaaS company, and the future outlook for using technology to transform energy management, reducing costs and emissions. Click to learn more about Moelis’s dynamic advisory practice: https://bit.ly/3M0xnQC #CleanTechnology #Sustainability #EnergyManagement #DataCenters #GridModernization #EarningsSeason

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Moelis acts as Exclusive Placement Agent to Archer, electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft developer, on its $430 million common stock PIPE in conjunction with the announcement of a strategic partnership with Anduril Industries. #CapitalMarkets Press release: https://bit.ly/3BhRjwT

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Moelis acts as Exclusive Placement Agent to Archer, electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft developer, on its $430 million common stock PIPE in conjunction with the announcement of a strategic partnership with Anduril Industries. #CapitalMarkets Press release: https://bit.ly/4iBFfY8

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