Timothy Bluth

Check out my recent post on why President Trump is the forcing function for us to solve the “Missing Middle” and catch the industrial Tsunami of onshoring coming to the US!

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Excited to announce our investment in Alta Resource Technologies alongside Leonardo Banchik (Voyager Ventures) with participation from Orion Resource Partners, Overture Ventures, and WovenEarth Ventures. Rare earths are critical in products from magnets to ceramics and it's important for the US to develop its own supply chain. While the US has some of the best rare earth resources, separating them has historically proven expensive and environmentally unfriendly. Alta through it's computationally designed and optimized proteins allows the US to bring back rare earth production with a cleaner, lower capex, and lower opex solution - and that's just the beginning. Congrats to Nathan Ratledge and the entire Alta team. Read more here: https://lnkd.in/gbGnAJn3

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Excellent blog post on the realities of Climate & VC. While these are "tough times for the transition," there are also many opportunities. Significant capital will continue to flow, with Corporate VCs playing a larger role in financing this transition. Through this process, they will strengthen their LP positions in funds tackling climate challenges. I receive weekly calls from large Holding & Corporate VCs seeking introductions to Climate / Energy / Infra VC Funds. When I ask about their target sub-verticals within Climate / Energy, they often mention that they default to focusing on specific regions due to limited resources and coverage. In other words, rather than evaluating whether a DACH VC is better positioned for solar or grid-tech compared to a Nordic or US VC, they simply pursue whichever regions they can access—a haphazard approach at best. I always advise LPs to evaluate VCs within their operating market context. Since sourcing is crucial in venture capital, Holding Cos. and Family Offices should carefully assess a VC's location, regulatory context, and market environment before investing and building a portfolio of Funds. I've heard "I wish I had discovered this VC / region sooner" far too many times... * At ComposeVC's Built World Fund, we do not invest in Climatetech or Energytech directly, only as it relates to our Built World thesis.

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I've participated in 100+ conversations with venture fund LPs this year. The most frequently discussed topics include: Team dynamics Sourcing differentiation Decision-making and selection process Portfolio support Sector thesis Track record Model and deployment strategy Network Long-term vision Timing (why now) References Fund infrastructure and reporting

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We (Climate VC) need to stop making excuses for the growth trajectories of our companies There’s a reason why Matthew Stotts and I chose the venture capital asset class to focus on - it has to GROW fast. And there are a lot of fast-growing, money-making opportunity areas with huge problems that could benefit from highly motivated well-funded and skilled teams looking to build a large company. If you need to make an excuse or caveat for any of the statements in the previous paragraph, you’re in the wrong asset class The good thing about VC is it grows fast and BIG. The clock is ticking on our biggest problem areas - let’s get to work!

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During our Annual Investor Day, we discussed a trend we’ve been observing in the VC market: Funds increasingly using “extra downside protection” to compensate for slow growth & inflated valuations of companies. We’re now starting to see some skeletons come out of the closet (and, ironically, they might be the driving force that will re-open the IPO window). First one out: ServiceTitan https://lnkd.in/eNMuPAe6 ps: despite the compounding IPO ratchet structure, I believe ServiceTitan is a solid company and, at the right price (factoring in all adjustments), it's a great deal!

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🌱🚀 Exciting News! Xefco, one of our portfolio companies, just secured A$10.5 million in funding to revolutionize the textile industry and reduce emissions! 🌎💡 With their innovative water-free textile finishing and dyeing solution, Ausora, Xefco is poised to make a significant impact. Their technology not only preserves precious resources but also cuts energy consumption and costs. Plus, it's already gaining traction with leading apparel brands like Zara and The North Face. At Investible, we're committed to backing visionary companies like Xefco that are driving positive change. This investment reaffirms our belief in their potential to transform industries and tackle pressing environmental challenges. #ClimateTech #SustainableInvesting #ImpactInvesting #MandiriInvestibleGlobalClimateTechFund 🌿📈

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I recently saw this metric from Carta’s 1Q24 VC Fund Report, which is very concerning. DPI... is nowhere to be found in earlier vintages that probably should start showing DPI. Funding early-stage projects is great, but ultimately, these venture dollars need to exit their investments and pay back their limited partners. That’s where the metric Distributed to Paid-In Capital (DPI) comes in. While managing a fund, we get interim measures during the life of the fund (e.g. IRR, MOIC), but ultimately, “you can’t eat IRR.” If you want to build a lasting venture capital organization, you need to start showing DPI for your fund. Keep in mind that this is traditional VC data from Carta, and is not strictly crypto venture. Crypto venture tends to get liquidity earlier (tokens) and things tend to go parabolic sooner (faster, more unicorns) - but I’d wager that the data here is somewhat similar for Crypto VCs… Not as much DPI as there should be from these earlier vintages. Read the full article, as well as a recap of all the crypto fundraising rounds for August, here: https://lnkd.in/g3eVJ-iF

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The Silver Tsunami is upon us, and it's reshaping the mergers and acquisitions landscape like never before. With an estimated $10 trillion in assets set to change hands over the next decade, driven by baby boomers retiring, the opportunity for savvy investors and entrepreneurs is immense. Currently, around 30,000 businesses sell annually, but with more than 8 million baby boomer-owned businesses expected to transition, the volume of transactions could increase tenfold. This is a monumental shift that smart buyers are already preparing for. You don't need to be a Wall Street titan to benefit from this trend; many of these businesses will transition to local entrepreneurs and small business owners. Are you ready to seize a piece of this $10 trillion wealth transfer? Position yourself strategically to take advantage of this unprecedented wave of opportunities. Engage with fellow professionals and explore how you can be part of this transformation. Not sure how? Let's talk about it! #SilverTsunami #MergersAndAcquisitions #BusinessOpportunities

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"Simply put, there is too much capital seeking too few opportunities, particularly at the seed stage. Multi-stage firms have eliminated pricing discipline at seed stage and the proliferation of seed firms has made the task of investing at this stage as competitive as it’s ever been, leading me to believe that indexed seed investing in today’s environment will produce poor returns. What does this mean for today’s environment? It’s never been more important to break away from median performance. While there is risk in breaking away from the pack, the risk (at least performance wise) of staying part of the herd is simply far worse. Median returns for the recent vintages are simply terrible. One could argue that funds are still in their j-curve phases, but I suspect this doesn’t explain the divergence we’re seeing between GOOD performers and GREAT performers. More than ever before, it’s clear to me that playing the same game as everyone else will not work, so fund managers should question whether they are really capable of being in the top 5% of whatever strategy they are employing. From a LP perspective, allocators should likely ask the same of their managers and consider whether allocating to indexed mega funds or indexing across too broad of a portfolio of managers is tenable in achieving their return targets." https://lnkd.in/g8GqHY-P

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Excited to join industry leaders in LA to explore the future of non-traditional investments. I’ll be speaking at the Private Wealth Southern California Forum, hosted by Markets Group, on 12 November. Together, we’ll discuss how innovations in alternative assets are reshaping the investment landscape. Thank you to Markets Group for providing the platform to explore these transformative developments. #PrivateEquity #Innovation #Technology #Entrepreneurship #VentureCapital #Investing #Finance #Alternatives #Startups #Speaker

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"Small funds may have more incentive to produce higher returns The alignment of incentives between GP and LP varies drastically based on fund size. Managers of smaller funds who have invested substantial personal capital demonstrate an unwavering commitment to lucrative returns, while managers at the helm of colossal funds, buoyed by significant management fees, may exhibit a diminishing drive. This constitutes an almost incontrovertible structural benefit of managing a small VC fund. Furthermore, fund managers of established funds may, over time, raise larger subsequent funds and grow more risk averse. This can present a sub-optimal outcome for their LPs and, by virtue, manifests a bad omen for VC investing." https://lnkd.in/gHKgea4e

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Not all of the investments that Kindred Capital VC makes can be a 13 year sourcing process.... but... this is one of those very fortunate moments in which a relationship that started over a decade ago in the Bay Area where the brilliant A-H. Hleileh and I overlapped has now turned into an incredibly exciting opportunity for Kindred to lead his and Ron Holifield's first institutional round at Civic Marketplace. We believe: 1. Local government procurement is one of the most underserved areas in technology today, and has failed to keep pace with the private sector. They deserve better. 2. This is a huge opportunity, with US local governments spending alone amounting to over $1.5 trillion in annual spend, which is only going in one direction... 3. As the brilliant Kip Harkness shared with me in our diligence phase, "this industry moves at the speed of trust." And this is a unique founding team with A-H. Hleileh and Ron Holifield at the helm who bring together two critical ingredients: 1) decades of trust-building within this domain, and 2) a team who can build beautiful and scalable technology platforms. Onwards!! 🚀

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The Information broke news that Insight Partners has just secured $10B in funding for their latest flagship fund. This is perfectly timed given their multiple $1B+ companies sold over the past week. This is a clear sight that #limitedpartners still have in their #privateallocations even during the current slow markets for #IPOs and #M&A. This would also appear to be good news for #AIfinancing and #SaaSFinancing. What do you think? #Management #VentureCapital #PrivateEquity #CapitalMarkets https://lnkd.in/gXu_s8Qj

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I was introduced to the Ag Playbook in February 2024 when I hosted a conversation with Paimun (PJ) Amini at the ReACH Innovation Summit. Just over 6 months later, I commend PJ, Senior Director of Venture Investments at Leaps by Bayer, for his great leadership in bringing together AgTech thought leaders to publish the first edition of the Ag Playbook, which provides a comprehensive guide for startups, investors, and industry players to navigate the complexities of product development, commercialization and go-to-market strategy in the agriculture sector. Developing and bringing new agricultural innovations to market is difficult, so it is hoped that this Ag Playbook, by delivering a standardized nomenclature and framework, will enable more streamlined planning and communication amongst the creators of the next generation of agricultural innovations. I am impressed with how much valuable content was created in such a short amount of time by a distinguished group who contributed their time and expertise in developing and reviewing the content. Having witnessed the creation of the Orange Button initiative, a federally funded project aimed at taking the difficulty and high costs out of solar project data management, during my time working the in renewable energy sector, I quickly realized the value of working to standardize information to overcome challenges for AgTech companies and offered to support PJ’s work. The Playbook’s first chapter covers time, cost, and milestones involved in the development of Crop Protection Small Molecule products, which are critical for the control of agricultural pests and diseases around the world. More chapters are expected to be developed, focused on Animal AgTech and Digital AgTech. With the financing market likely to remain challenging well into 2025, it is more important than ever to provide start-up companies with the tools to increase the likelihood that their new innovations to make it onto the farm. As the AgTech sector continues to evolve, hopefully, this Ag Playbook will help unlock the potential of new technologies to address global food complexities and support AgTech companies in achieving success. Adrian Percy Aimee Hood Dana Lucas Dan Seyer Derek Norman Devika Balachandran Eric Park Fabian Gosselin P. Gregory Hartmann Jacqueline Heard John Dombrosky Kerstin Ilg Ling Li Mark S. Brooks Mark Wood Michael Crawford Neal Gutterson Rachel Resek Ronald Meeusen Sara Olson, PhD Sommers Kline Thomas LAURENT EcoTech Capital Cy Obert #agtech #agriculture #cropprotection #innovation #sustainability #sustainableag #technology #farm https://lnkd.in/gz7XxWeB

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VC world can be cruel and unforgiving. With LPs more and more pushing for distribution and liquidity, fund managers in the mid-tenure of their fund with zero DPI and TVPI around 1.0 would have much more difficulty to raise new fund. The ability to fundraise is one of the crucial indications and validation of the job for VCs. Key highlights from the article below: Thirteen percent of venture General Partners (GPs) no longer plan to raise another fund due to LP pullback. This rate has doubled since H1 2023 when only 6% of GPs had no plans for another fund. Nearly 44% of venture firms surveyed in mid-2023 had previously postponed their fundraising plans due to concerns about overexposure to the asset class. Many emerging managers entered venture capital in 2019 or 2020 when the LP market supported more funds. However, slow exits in the first half of 2024 have led to challenges in raising second funds without significant cash distributions to LPs. Some venture GPs are now actively participating in the secondaries market to demonstrate returns. Despite the challenges, GPs who secured fresh capital remain optimistic. They expect the 2023 and 2024 vintages to be the strongest return years since 2019. 🚀📈 #VC #VentureCapital #Fundraising #LPs #EmergingManagers #TechInvestment #MarketTrends #CountdownCapital #IndustryInsights #JetVentures #JetInvestment‍‍‍‍‍‍

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Here’s a question investors are often asked: When evaluating early stage companies, how much time do you spend on due diligence around future exits? It’s not surprising we hear this question a lot. Also not surprising: it’s got a wide range of answers depending on the firm. Some don’t spend much time here at all. Others make it a point to put meaningful time in as part of their process. Our current thinking: take the time to do the work on public market comps. At Alpaca VC, we spend significant time understanding how public market investors will  realistically value a business based on margin profile, product, business model & TAM. In short, we want to know: how will this company be valued at scale when we get taken out? Yes, we can acknowledge that the journey toward exit is a windy road and that there may be pivots along the way, but there are still public market companies that have a business model similar to the early stage company you're evaluating. And you can always look at gross profit multiples if you think the margin profile will change over time. So we still do the work on the comps. Quantitative metrics we look at when making the comparison to public market comps include EBITDA multiple, revenue multiple, Gross Profit multiple or all of the above. As part of this process, it’s also important to factor in the public market company’s year-over-year revenue growth as this will also significantly impact the multiple it trades at. Simple example: if you have two public market companies with similar business models and similar margin profiles, but one's growing 100% year over year, and one's growing 50% year over year, then obviously the DCF (discounted cash flow) analysis is going to spit out a very different valuation for the one that's growing faster. Why this matters: When you take all of that information into account as you evaluate an early stage business, you can begin to create a realistic picture of how this company will be valued in the public markets at exit - or how an acquirer will value the company for an acquisition. Strategic acquirers may, of course, pay a premium, but we won’t underwrite for that. This allows us, for example, to form conviction around valuation based on revenue and gross profit predictions. If we think they can do $100M of revenue five years from now, we use this diligence process to form a thesis about whether the characteristics above (product, margin, business model, etc.) will cause the company to be valued at $200M vs. $500M vs. $1B at exit. Curious how other early stage investors think about underwriting an exit and how much time they’re spending on public market comps even though these companies are in their infancy.

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Pleased to share that Fin Capital’s Fintech CEO Pulse Report is out! Fin Capital surveyed over 50 CEOs and C-suite leaders of private companies from our portfolio and the broader fintech industry during June and July 2024 to get a quick pulse on what’s top of mind for fintech’s leaders. Here are some key takeaways: - Optimism in the Air: More than 60% of CEOs reported being bullish or highly bullish on the fintech industry for the second half of 2024. - Regulatory Changes on the Horizon: CEOs identified Cryptocurrency, Open Banking, and Buy Now Pay Later as the top three sectors likely to see increased regulation by the end of 2024. - Headwinds persist. Despite overall bullishness on fintech, CEOs report a weak IPO environment and flag that macroeconomic volatility, regulation, and high interest rates remain top challenges for their companies. However, with abating inflation, CEO’s believe we could see rate cuts begin in September, which could positively affect asset values and market buoyancy, including the IPO window. For more insights, including comments from Logan Allin, Christian Ostberg, Matthew D. Mann, CFA, and Stephanie Perez, check out the full report here: https://lnkd.in/gK6usfwM

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