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Event Tree Analysis

Event tree analysis evaluates potential accident outcomes resulting from an initiating event, such as equipment failure. It involves identifying the initiating event, safety functions to address it, and constructing an event tree that models the various sequences in which the safety functions could succeed or fail. The event tree is then used to describe the potential accident sequences and their probabilities of occurrence based on the reliability of the safety functions.

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221 views

Event Tree Analysis

Event tree analysis evaluates potential accident outcomes resulting from an initiating event, such as equipment failure. It involves identifying the initiating event, safety functions to address it, and constructing an event tree that models the various sequences in which the safety functions could succeed or fail. The event tree is then used to describe the potential accident sequences and their probabilities of occurrence based on the reliability of the safety functions.

Uploaded by

scorpionarnold
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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EVENT TREE ANALYSIS

Event tree analysis evaluates potential accident outcomes that might result following an equipment failure or process upset known as an initiating event. It is a forward-thinking process, i.e. the analyst begins with an initiating event and develops the following sequences of events that describes potential accidents, accounting for both the successes and failures of the safety functions as the accident progresses.

Guidelines
1. Identify an initiating event of interest.
2. Identify the safety functions designed to deal with the initiating event. 3. Construct the event tree. 4. Describe the resulting accident event sequences.

Step 1 Identify the initiating event


system or equipment failure
human error process upset [Example] Loss of Cooling Water to an Oxidation Reactor

Step 2 Identify the Safety Functions Designed to Deal with the Initiating Event
Safety system that automatically respond to the initiating event. Alarms that alert the operator when the initiating event occurs and operator actions designed to be performed in response to alarms or required by procedures. Barriers or Containment methods that are intended to limit the effects of the initiating event.

Example
Oxidation reactor high temp. Alarm alerts operator at temp T1. Operator reestablish cooling water flow to the oxidation reactor. Automatic shutdown system stops reaction at temp. T2. T2 > T1
These safety functions are listed in the order in which they are intended to occur.

Step 3: Construct the Event Tree

a. Enter the initiating event and safety functions.


SAFETY FUNCTION
Oxidation reactor high temperature alarm alerts operator at temperature T1 Operator reestablishes cooling water flow to oxidation reactor Automatic shutdown system stops reaction at temperature T2

INITIATING EVENT:
Loss of cooling water to oxidation reactor

FIRST STEP IN CONSTRUCTING EVENT TREE

Step 3: Construct the Event Tree

b. Evaluate the safety functions.


SAFETY FUNCTION
Oxidation reactor high temperature alarm alerts operator at temperature T1

Operator reestablishes cooling water flow to oxidation reactor

Automatic shutdown system stops reaction at temperature T2

INITIATING EVENT:
Loss of cooling water to oxidation reactor

Success

Failure

REPRESENTATION OF THE FIRST SAFETY FUNCTION

Step 3: Construct the Event Tree

b) Evaluate the safety functions.


SAFETY FUNCTION
Oxidation reactor high temperature alarm alerts operator at temperature T1

Operator reestablishes cooling water flow to oxidation reactor

Automatic shutdown system stops reaction at temperature T2

INITIATING EVENT:
Loss of cooling water to oxidation reactor

Success

Failure

If the safety function does not affect the course of the accident, the accident path proceeds with no branch pt to the next safety function.

REPRESENTATION OF THE SECOND SAFETY FUNCTION

Step 3: b. Evaluate safety functions.


SAFETY FUNCTION
Oxidation reactor high temperature alarm alerts operator at temperature T1 Operator reestablishes cooling water flow to oxidation reactor Automatic shutdown system stops reaction at temperature T2

INITIATING EVENT:
Loss of cooling water to oxidation reactor

Success

Completed !
Failure

COMPLETED EVENT TREE

Step 4: Describe the Accident Sequence


Oxidation reactor Operator high temperature reestablishes SAFETY FUNCTION alarm alerts operator cooling water flow at temperature T1 to oxidation reactor Automatic shutdown system stops reaction at temperature T2

A Safe condition, return to normal operation


AC Safe condition, process shutdown INITIATING EVENT: Loss of cooling water to oxidation reactor A ACD Unsafe condition, runaway reaction, operator aware of problem AB Unstable condition, process shutdown ABD Unsafe condition, runaway reaction, operator unaware of problem

Success

Failure

ACCIDENT SEQUENCES

Reactor Feed

Cooling Coils

Cooling Water Out

Cooling Water In

Reactor TIC
Temperature Controller

Alarm at T > TA

TIA
Thermocouple High Temperature Alarm

Figure 11-8 Reactor with high temperature alarm and temperature controller.

High Temp Safety Function: Alarm Alerts Operator

Operator Notices High Temp

Operator Re-starts Cooling

Operator Shuts Down Reactor

Result

Identifier: Failures/Demand:

B 0.01

C 0.25

D 0.25

E 0.1

0.99 0.2475 A 1 Initiating Event: Loss of Cooling 1 Occurrence/yr. 0.01 0.0025 0.000625
Shutdown = 0.2227 + 0.001688 + 0.005625 = 0.2250 occurrences/yr. Runaway = 0.02475 + 0.0001875 + 0.0000625 = 0.02500 occurrences/yr.

0.0075 0.001875

A 0.7425 AD 0.2227 ADE 0.02475 AB 0.005625 ABD 0.001688 ABDE 0.0001875 ABC 0.001875 ABCD 0.0005625 ABCDE 0.0000625

Continue Operation Shut Down Runaway Continue Operation Shut Down Runaway Continue Operation

Shut Down
Runaway

Figure 11-9 Event tree for a loss of coolant accident for the reactor of Figure 11-8.

Safety Function
0.01 Failures/Demand

Initiating Event 0.5 Occurrences/yr.

Success of Safety Function (1-0.01)*0.5 = 0.495 Occurrence/yr.

Failure of Safety Function 0.01*0.5 = 0.005 Occurrence/yr.

Figure 11-10 The computational sequence across a safety function in an event tree.

High Temp Safety Function: Alarm Alerts Operator

Operator Notices High Temp

Operator Re-starts Cooling

Operator Shuts Down

Operator Shuts Down Reactor

Result

Identifier: Failures/Demand:

B 0.01

C 0.25

D 0.25

E 0.01

F 0.1
Continue Operation Shut Down

0.99 0.2475

A 1

Initiating Event: Loss of Cooling 1 Occurrence/yr.


0.01

0.00750
0.001875

0.0025 0.000625

A 0.7425 AD 0.2450 ADE 0.002228 ADEF 0.002475 0.0002475 AB 0.005625 ABD 0.001856 ABDE 0.00001688 ABDEF 0.00001875 0.000001875 ABC 0.001875 ABCD 0.0006187 ABCDE 0.00000563 ABCDEF 0.00000675 0.000000625

Shut Down
Runaway Continue Operation Shut Down Shut Down Runaway Continue Operation Shut Down Shut Down Runaway

Shutdown = 0.2450 + 0.001856 + 0.00001688 + 0.0006187 = 0.2475 occurrences/yr. Runaway = 0.0002475 + 0.000001875 + 0.000000625 = 0.0002500 occurrences/yr. Figure 11-11 Event tree for the reactor of Figure 11-8. This includes a high temperature shutdown system.

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