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Lesson 8

This one or two lesson plan introduces theoretical and experimental probability. The objectives are for students to understand the difference between these two concepts and see connections to real world examples. Formative assessment of previous lessons is reviewed. Students will work through probability worksheets individually and in pairs to calculate and compare theoretical and experimental probabilities for coin tosses and dice rolls. Their worksheets will be used for formative and summative assessment. The teacher will circulate to ensure understanding and lead a discussion comparing the concepts.

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142 views2 pages

Lesson 8

This one or two lesson plan introduces theoretical and experimental probability. The objectives are for students to understand the difference between these two concepts and see connections to real world examples. Formative assessment of previous lessons is reviewed. Students will work through probability worksheets individually and in pairs to calculate and compare theoretical and experimental probabilities for coin tosses and dice rolls. Their worksheets will be used for formative and summative assessment. The teacher will circulate to ensure understanding and lead a discussion comparing the concepts.

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© © All Rights Reserved
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LESSON 8

Name of Lesson: Theoretical and


Experimental Probability

Duration: one or two 60 minutes lessons

Objectives:
Understanding the difference
between theoretical and
experimental probability

Curriculum Objectives:
General Outcomes:
Connections between theoretical and experimental probability
Connections between probability present in the real world and in the
classroom
Communication presenting and discussion reasoning with the class.
(Alberta Education, 2015, p.4)
Specific Outcomes:
Differentiating between experimental and theoretical probability
Comparing experimental results with the theoretical probability for
an experiment
(Alberta Education, 2015, p.34)
Link to Previous Lesson(s):
It is important to note that the students should already know how to
convert percentages to decimals and fractions but some review may
be required and is provided at the beginning of the lesson. (Alberta
Education, 2015, p.31).
Links to understanding of possible outcomes presented in Lesson 6
Impossible, Likely and Certain lesson
Links to fairness presented in Lesson 7 Is it Fair? lesson.
Learners Differentiation:
Challenged or ELL learners: Allow students who work better alone
to work independently, allow students to present their answers with
their partners
Extension: Create a second worksheet and encourage students to
determine theoretical and experimental probability using multiple
dice.

Materials:
Enough coins and dice for groups
of 2 (extra dice for extension)
Theoretical/Experimental
probability worksheets

Formative Assessment
from last class:

Lesson

Scaffold learning from previous lessons. What are the equations for theoretical
and experimental probability?
Theoretical Probability = Number of favourable outcomes/Number of possible
outcomes
Experimental probability = number of times an outcome occurs/number of
times the experiment is conducted
Connect with real life examples of probability:
Theoretical
1 in 14 million for lotto 649 (CBC, 2009)
Experimental
One in nine hundred and thirty eight Ontario minor league players ended up
playing one game in the NHL (1965, 1975, 1985). (Parcels, 2002).
The odds that you will choke to death on a hotdog 1 in 181,230 (Non-white,
2010)
Review Ratio, fraction and percentage
Group of 5 students 4 boys and 1 girl

Ratio of boys to girls

Fraction of the group Decimal


% that is
that is boys
boys
Is 4 to 1 or 4/1 or 4:1
4/5
0.8
80%
Theoretical and Experimental Probability
The flames have a one in 16 chance of winning the playoffs
To make the playoffs teams needed at least 98 out of a possible 164 points.

Task/Activity

Formative/Summative
Assessment

Reflection

Ask students to provide examples of where theoretical and experimental


probability would be used in real life. Facilitate a class discussion and have
students write out the equations specific to scenario on the Smartboard.
Worksheet Go through theoretical probability for coin toss. Ask the students
to complete theoretical probabilities for a die on the worksheet. Put students in
pairs and complete coin and die experimental probability exercise but have
them record their own answers on the worksheets. Once the students have
completed their exercises review and mark as a class. Have students volunteer
to write their answers on the Smartboard and explain to the class. Discuss the
connection between theoretical and experimental probability, what is different,
what is the same? Discuss why the total for all probability experiments is
100%. Have the students turn in their worksheets.
Circulate to ensure they are completing the worksheet correctly and discuss the
differences between theoretical and experimental probability with them.
Have students correct their worksheet discussing the answers as you go this
allows for personal reflection on how they determined theoretical probability
and experimental probability. Use the worksheets as artifacts and for
summative assessment.

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