Fund Manager Overview
The Fund Manager Captain Kripalsinh Parmar holds two of
CAPTAIN
KRIPALSINH
PARMAR
the highest degrees in the field of Technical Analysis :-
MSTA (Member of the Society of Technical Analysts)
awarded by STA (Society of Technical Analsyts),UK .
CFTe (Certified Financial Technician) awarded by IFTA
(International Federation of Technical Analysts),USA .
He isTraditional
also a Commercial
Pilot and holds Pilot License of 3 countries :
Asset Classes
Australia, New Zealand and India .
With his hard core Pilot Discipline and Mechanical Approach to manage risk in
Trend Following Systems through which he has been trading in his own account
and managing clients fund .
He has an audited track record of producing Consistent Absolute Returns
irrespective of Market condition .
The Investment Universe
Trend Following or
Discipline Trading
System (DTS) are an
asset class in their
own right separate
from traditional
investments such as
stocks, commodity
or bonds.
ALTERNATIVE ASSET CLASSES
Hedge Funds
Trend Following
Private Equity
TRADITIONAL ASSET CLASSES
Cash
Bonds
Equities
Real Estate
Challenge before Investor
MAKE CONSISTENCE MONEY
IRRESPECTIVE OF MARKET
CONDITION
95 % TRADER LOOSE & ONLY 5% EARN
MARKET TIMEING
DONT HAVE TIME FOR STOCK
RESEARCH & REVIEW
DIVERSIFICATION & HEDGE OF
PORTFOLIO
TREND
FOLLOWING
TRIES TO
ANSWER
MOST OF
THEM
Trend Following
There is only one side in stock
market and it is not the Bulls
side or Bears side, it is the
right side
Jesse Livermore
The Turtle Story
Traditional Asset Classes
What is Trend Following?
Trend followers make money in both BULL & BEAR
MARKETS as they take long positions in BULL
MARKET when the trend is UP and take short
positions in BEAR MARKET when the trend is DOWN.
Trend following strategies shift portfolio exposure
according to the rules based processes that react to
existing trends in the price and volatility of
securities.
Why Trend Following?
Traditional Investment Trend Following
Relative return
Absolute return
Worldwide stock
markets highly
correlated
No correlation to traditional
investments
Passively managed
Broad choices:
Stocks indices, bonds,
currencies, metals, energy,
grains, ...
Limited choices: Stocks,
bonds
Actively managed
RESULT: Trend Following offer potential
absolute returns in both bull and bear markets
Why Trend Following?
Profit in up and down markets
No more buy and hold Analysis
No prediction
The big money of letting profits run
Money & Risk management
Takes advantage of mass psychology
Scientific approach to trading
What
is Trend?
Why Trend
Following?
Trend reversal
Trend traps
Entrance
Trend trap
Exit
Exit
Entrance
Entrance
Trend
Strong trend
Profit
Trendless period
Exit
Exit
trap
Trend trap
Entrance
Entrance
Profit
Trend reversal
Exit
Strong Trend
Trend reversal
Source: Superfund
Money & Risk Management Principal
Technical trading system to recognize
trends
Automatically initiates buy and sell orders
and readjusts stop loss orders
No emotions
Maximum initial risk per trade
Maximum risk for each position
Consideration of volatilities and
correlations
Maximum exposure per market
Trend-following v/s Technical &
Fundamental Analysis
Parameter
Technical
(Discretionary)
Fundamental
Trend
Following
Based on
Price, vol. &
Indicators
Balance sheet&
many more
Price
Prediction of price
Yes
Yes
No
Back testing
No
No
Yes
Target
Yes
Yes
No
Emotion
Partly yes
Yes
No
Proven Consistence &
track record
No
No
Yes
Rules
Complex
Complex
Simple
DOES
TREND
FOLLOWING
work in INDIA
Lets Run through
few Big Greed &
Fear Events
Event -1 LOWER CIRCUIT 2008
System was in sell mode 4 days before Lower Circuit 2008.
Event -2 LEHMAN BROTHER CRISIS
System was in sell mode 15 days before the Lehman Brother Crisis.
EVENT -3 ELECTION RESULT 2009
System was in buy mode 11 days before the Upper Circuit in Election 2009.
EVENT -4 CAPTURED THE BIGGEST MOVE
One of the biggest move in Nifty in January 2012.
EVENT -5 MAMTA BANERJEE LEFT UPA
Trend followers was in again on the right side in political uncertainty.
EVENT -6 ELECTION 2014
System gave a buy signal 5 days before the Modi win.
PRICE DISCOUNTS
EVERYTHING
Trend followers are always on the
RIGHT SIDE much before the big
event or big moves
Back Testing Nifty & Banknifty
Nifty 14 years Backtesting Summary
Parameters
ACCURACY
Result
MAX. CONSECUTIVE DRAWDOWN
800
MAX. DRAWDOWN IN SINGLE TRADE
235
MAX. DRAWDOWN ON CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
AVG. RETURN ON INVESTMENT
LEVERAGE
Parameters
45%
MAX. CONSECUTIVE LOSS TRADES
MAX. TIME TO ACHIEVE BREAKEVEN
Banknifty 14 years Backtesting
ACCURACY
45%
MAX. CONSECUTIVE LOSS TRADES
MAX. CONSECUTIVE DRAWDOWN
2000
MAX. DRAWDOWN IN SINGLE
TRADE
407
6 month
33%
150000
40%-60%
3 TIMES
MAX. TIME TO ACHIEVE
BREAKEVEN
6
MONTHS
MAX. DRAWDOWN ON CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
35%
150000
AVG. RETURN ON INVESTMENT
LEVERAGE
Full SUMMARY
Result
60%-80%
3 TIMES
Full SUMMARY
BMA USP 10 Trade
We have thoroughly Back-tested our System for
more than 14 years on Nifty & 7 years on Banknifty.
Based on Back-testing & actual trade from 2011, we
have concluded that if you give 10 trades to the
System, even the System is committed to give you
positive outcome in every 10 trades.
Our combined
product (Nifty & Banknifty)
drawdown is not more than 25%.
If you are interested to see the Backtesting, we are
more than happy to share it with you.
Product Detailing
The product will take positions in Index , Bank Nifty future*
short / long based on the technical indicators.
It is a Mechanical based trading where traders take long, short
positions or doesnt do anything as per the pre-defined
indicators for trading.
The margin could be in form of cash and your stock holding. It
may generate return on your long term holding.
Index is a portfolio of 50 Stocks (Nifty) across Various sector. By
trading in nifty, you are not taking any stocks or sector specific
views. Bank Nifty is more volatility since it is sectoral Indices.
Highly liquid & low impact cost low.
MARGIN REQUIREMENT
1,50,000
1,50,000
NIFTY1,50,000
BANK
1,50,000
NIFTY
3,00,000
3,00,000
TOTAL
Risk & Costs associated
It is leveraged & margin based product.
There could be MTM losses which you have to
pay in cash.
It is not arbitrage or capital guaranteed
product.
Summary of System
Still thinking?
EMBRACE THE CHANGE,
UNLEASH THE MARKET
POTENTIAL
Call 18603001099 or your
nearest BMA branch for
more details. You may
write to us at
trendfollowing@bmastock
.com
If you are committed for 10
trades, then even the
SYSTEM is committed to
give you Positive outcome
in 10 trade.
THANK YOU !
Authored by: Sourav Sengupta.
Copyright @ BMA Wealth Creators Pvt Ltd.
Nifty Backtesting
YEAR
POINTS
TRADES
INTRADAY
WHIPSAW
POINTS
INTRADAY
WHIPSAW
TRADES
TOTAL
TRADES
IMPACT
COST
NET PROFIT
YEARLY
CLOSE
SYSTEM
RETURNS
BUY AND
HOLD
RETURNS
2000
1484
21
176
14
35
210
1098
1263
87%
-15%
2001
799
28
159
15
43
258
382
1059
36%
-16%
2002
417
26
219
20
46
276
-78
1093
-7%
3%
2003
1130
28
282
15
43
301
547
1879
29%
72%
2004
978
26
291
14
40
280
407
2080
20%
11%
2005
1425
28
340
12
40
320
765
2836
27%
36%
2006
2318
28
595
15
43
387
1336
3966
34%
40%
2007
3436
30
1289
21
51
561
1586
6138
26%
55%
2008
4701
32
503
17
49
392
3806
2959
129%
-52%
2009
3029
32
363
39
390
2276
5201
44%
76%
2010
2356
28
675
11
39
429
1252
6134
20%
18%
2011
3534
29
555
12
41
369
2610
4624
56%
-25%
2012
2759
26
591
10
36
396
1772
5905
30%
28%
2013
3081
37
1009
16
53
583
1489
6304
24%
7%
2014
1711
17
560
25
300
851
TOTAL
33158
416
7607
207
623
5452
19248
554%
238%
40%
16%
AVG. RETURN
Home
Banknifty Backtesting
YEAR POINTS TRADES
2008
4985
20
2009
8174
28
2010
7834
26
2011
6991
35
2012
7949
28
2013 10605
34
2014
4093
19
TOTAL
50631
190
INTRAD
AY
INTRADAY WHIPSA
TOTAL IMPACT
WHIPSAW
W
POINTS
TRADES TRADES COST
-800
16
36
540
-1980
22
50
950
-3068
26
52
1144
-1280
16
51
918
-1875
15
43
946
-2147
19
53
1113
-1340
10
29
696
-12490
124
314
6307
NET
PROFIT
3645
5244
3622
4793
5128
7345
2057
YEARLY
SYSTEM
CLOSE RETURNS
5001
73%
9029
58%
11791
31%
7968
60%
12474
41%
11385
65%
BUY
AND
HOLD
RETUR
NS
-21%
81%
31%
-32%
57%
-9%
31834
327%
107%
55%
18%
AVG.
RETURN
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