Lecture Series 1 Linear Random and Fixed Effect Models and Their (Less) Recent Extensions
Lecture Series 1 Linear Random and Fixed Effect Models and Their (Less) Recent Extensions
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Overview
1
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(1)
(2)
(3)
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(4)
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= E {(X X )
X (X + )|X }
= + (X X )
X E {|X }
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
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= Var {(X X )
X (X + )|X }
1
= Var { + (X X )
= XX
(9)
X |X }
(10)
(11)
X Var {|X }X (X X )
(12)
Recall, the OLS assumption about is that it iid (0, 2 ) and so:
Var (OLS |X ) = 2 (X X )1 ,
(13)
N T
1 XX 2
eit .
NT
(14)
i =1 t=1
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2
u2 + 2 . . .
2
2
2
2
2
...
2
Var (i |Xi ) =
2
2
. . . u2 + 2
2
2
2
2
2
...
u + 2
u2 IT T + 2 iT 1 i1T
= (i is a vector of ones).
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0 ... 0 0
0 ... 0 0
N
= .
= INN
T T
.. ..
.
.
... . .
0 0 . . . 0 NT NT
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There are two solutions to fix the wrong standard errors implied by
cross-sectional unobserved heterogeneity when using OLS:
1
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s2
N T 1 T
NT (T 1) 1 X X X
=
eit eis
2
(15)
i =1 t=1 s=t+1
Estimate 2 by:
2
s = (NT )
N X
T
X
eit2
(16)
i =1 t=1
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(17)
[I iT 1 i1T
],
u
T
where
=1 p
u
u2 + T 2
(18)
(19)
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(20)
Y = X + .
(21)
or
1/2 Yi =
Yi 1 Yi
Yi 2 Yi
..
.
YiT Yi
1/2
Xi =
,
Xi 1 Xi
Xi 2 Xi
..
.
XiT Xi
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(22)
= (X
= (X
X)
X)
X (X
(23)
1
X)
(24)
(25)
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= E {(X X )
6= ,
X (X + )|X }
= + (X X )
X E {|X }
(26)
(27)
(28)
(29)
where the last inequality stems from the fact that E (i |Xit ) 6= 0.
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(30)
(31)
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(33)
N X
T
N X
T
hX
i1 h X
i
(Xit Xi )(Xit Xi )
(Xit Xi )(Yit Yi )
i =1 t=1
i =1 t=1
(34)
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(35)
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Some transformations
T 1 iT 1 i1T
,
N
where INN is the identity matrix of dimension N N,
is
the Kronecker product, and iT 1 is a T 1 vector of 1s.
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Y11 Y1
Y1
...
...
Y1T Y1
Y1
Y2
Y21 Y2
...
...
PY = , QY =
, and so on.
Y2T Y2
Y2
...
...
Y Y
Y
N
N1
N
...
...
YN
YNT YN
Note that P and Q are idempotent (P 2 = P, Q 2 = Q) and
orthogonal (PQ = 0).
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(36)
(37)
Xit = Xit Xi ,
1/2
u2
where = 1 2 +T
.
2
(38)
and
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BE
N
hX
i =1
T (Xi X )(Xi X )
N
i1 X
(39)
T (Xi X )(Yi Y )
i =1
= (X PX )
X PY
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N X
T
hX
(Xit Xi )(Xit Xi ) +
i =1 t=1
N X
T
X
N
X
T (Xi X )(Xi X )
i1
i =1
(Xit Xi )(Xit Xi )
i =1 t=1
u2
= (1 )2 .
u2 + T 2
(40)
Summary
If E (i |Xit ) = 0,
Both RE and FE are consistent for (and so would be OLS).
RE is efficient, OLS has biased standard errors.
If E (i |Xit ) 6= 0,
RE is inconsistent for .
FE is consistent for .
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Testing
The efficiency/consistency trade-off between RE and FE suggests
a method to test the random effects restriction. One of these tests
is the Hausman test. Under the null hypothesis,
H0 : E (i |Xit ) = 0, RE is efficient, but it is inconsistent under the
alternative hypothesis (Ha : E (i |Xit ) 6= 0). In contrast, FE is
consistent under both H0 and H1 .
The Hausman test statistic for this test is:
H = (FE RE ) {Var (FE RE )}1 (FE RE ),
(41)
Testing
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(43)
where i = 1, . . . , N, t = 1, . . . , T , and
it = i + uit ,
(44)
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(k1 + k2 = k);
Z1i and Z2i consist of g1 and g2 variables, respectively
(g1 + g2 = g );
E (i |X1it ) = 0 and E (i |Z1i ) = 0; and
E (i |X2it ) 6= 0 and E (i |Z2i ) 6= 0.
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(46)
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= (Zi PA Zi )1 Zi PA di
(47)
and
PA = A(A A)1 A
(48)
Z2 = A(A A)1 A Z2
(49)
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u
u2 + T 2
(50)
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wit = (X1it
X2it
Z1i Z2i ) = WNT (k1 +k2 +g1 +g2 ) ,
(51)
wit
Yit
= wit w
i
= Yit Yi .
(52)
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(55)
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Intuition of CRE
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Formalisation of CRE
Specify the linear projection of i on the set of Xit s:
(56)
) that is
A component (Xi1 1 + Xi2 2 + . . . + XiT
T
correlated with the observable covariates; and
The s are the projection coefficients that reflect the extent of the
correlation between i and Xit , and i is, by construction, a true
random effect - i.e. uncorrelated with Xit for all t.
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Formalisation of CRE
Note:
E (i |Xit ) does not have to be linear in the Xit s. It is only the
(57)
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To get:
i = (T Xi ) + i
(59)
(60)
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Chamberlains approach
If you do not want to make the strong assumptions made by
Mundlak, then implementation of this correction is slightly more
difficult. Use Eq. 56 to substitute for i in combined Eq. 30, we
get:
Yit
where ts =
s
+ t
(63)
s 6= t
s = t.
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Some explanations
Eq. 62 is the reduced form equation for the model. The errors
(i + uit ) are uncorrelated with the regressors. This expression
shows that one way to view the problem of ignoring the correlation
between the covariates and the unobserved heterogeneity is an
omitted variables problem that can be solved by including all the
out-of-period realisations of Xis in the period t equation.
In Eq. 63, the coefficient on Xit , i.e. tt , consists of two
components:
1
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Estimation of CRE
The parameters of interest ( and t s) can be estimated by the
minimum distance approach - it requires two steps:
1
ts = s t 6= s;
tt st = t 6= s.
Evaluation of CRE
This approach is called random effects because it
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Three-stage procedure
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Three-stage procedure
yit yi = k
K
X
(xkit xki +m
M
X
m=1
k=1
(64)
Let:
ui = yi
K
X
k xkit ei )
(65)
k=1
ui =
M
X
m zmi + hi
(66)
m=1
and
hi = ui
M
X
m zmi
(67)
m=1
yit = + k
K
X
k=1
xkit +
M
X
m=1
m zmi + hi + it
(68)
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1.7), and;
Overall R 2 is low, and;
Correlation between rarely changing variables and ind. FE is
low.
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Assumptions
1