Probabilistic Analysis Tutorial

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Probabilistic Analysis Tutorial

This tutorial will familiarize the user with the Probabilistic Analysis
features of RocTopple.
In a Probabilistic Analysis, you can define statistical distributions for
input parameters (e.g. slope geometry, shear strength, water level), to
account for uncertainty in their values. When the analysis is computed,
this results in a distribution of safety factors, from which a probability of
failure (PF) is calculated.
The finished product of this tutorial can be found in the Tutorial 02
Probabilistic.rtop file. Tutorial files installed with RocTopple 1.0 can be
accessed by selecting File > Recent Folders > Tutorials Folder from the
RocTopple main menu.
Topics Covered in this Tutorial

Project Settings
Random Variables
Mean Slope
Histograms
Scatter Plots
Cumulative Plots
Info Viewer

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If you have not already done so, run the RocTopple program by doubleclicking on the RocTopple icon in your installation folder. Or from the
Start menu, select Programs Rocscience RocTopple 1.0
RocTopple.
If the RocTopple application window is not already maximized, maximize
it now, so that the full screen is available for viewing the model.
When the RocTopple program is started, a default model is automatically
created, allowing you to begin defining your model immediately. If you do
NOT see a slope model on your screen:

Select: File New

Whenever a new file is created, the default input data will form a valid
slope.

Project Settings
The Project Settings option allows you to configure the main analysis
parameters for your model (i.e. Analysis Type, Units, Sampling Method
etc). Select Project Settings from the toolbar or the Analysis menu.

Select: Analysis Project Settings

You will see the Project Settings dialog.

Analysis Type
By default a Deterministic Analysis is selected for a new file. Select the
General tab in the Project Settings dialog, and change the Analysis
Type to Probabilistic.

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Units
For this tutorial we will be using Metric units, with stress as kPa.

Sampling and Random Numbers

The Sampling Method determines how statistical distributions for the
random input variables will be sampled. The default Sampling Method
is Latin Hypercube, and the default Number of Samples is 5,000. See
the RocTopple help topics for more information about the sampling
options.
Note that RocTopple always uses Pseudo-Random sampling. This
allows you to obtain reproducible results for a probabilistic analysis.
Do not make any changes to these settings, we will use the defaults.

Project Summary
Select the Project Summary tab in the Project Settings dialog.
Enter RocTopple Probabilistic Analysis Tutorial as the Project Title.

NOTE: the Project Summary information can be displayed on printouts of

analysis results, using the Page Setup option in the File menu and
defining a Header and/or Footer.
Select OK to close the Project Settings dialog.
The legend at the top left corner should say Not Computed. This is
because RocTopple currently has Auto-Compute turned off, so to get
results the user must manually click Compute.
Dont click Compute just yet. We need to define random variables first.

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Probabilistic Input Data

Select Input Data from the Analysis menu or the toolbar.

Select: Analysis Input Data

Random variables can be defined using quick-stat buttons or using the
Statistics button at the bottom-left of the dialog.

To carry out a Probabilistic Analysis with RocTopple, at least one input

parameter must be defined as a random variable. To define a random
variable, select a statistical distribution (e.g. Normal, Lognormal,
Uniform, etc) for the variable, and enter appropriate statistical
parameters for the distribution (e.g. standard deviation, min and max
values).
For more information about statistical input, see the RocTopple help
system.
For this example, we will be defining the following input parameters as
random variables:

Toppling Joints Spacing

Toppling Joints Dip
Toppling Joints Shear Strength
Base Joints Shear Strength

All other input parameters will be assumed to be exactly known (i.e.

Statistical Distribution = None) and will not be involved in the statistical
sampling.

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Geometry
Select the Geometry tab in the Input Data dialog. Enter the following
data for the different geometric parameters:

Slope Angle = 70

Slope Height = 90m

Upper Slope Angle = 0

Topple Joints Spacing = 10m

Toppling Joints Dip = 70

Overall Base Inclination = 40

Rock Unit Weight = 27 kN/m3

These values are the mean values for random variables, and the exact
known values for variables without a statistical distribution.

For the variable Toppling Joints Spacing, click on the quick-stats

button to the right. Enter the following statistical data:

Distribution: Normal

Standard Deviation: 0.5

With the 3x std.dev check box turned on, the relative minimum and
relative maximum will be automatically calculated.

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Click anywhere in the Input Dialog box to close the quick-stat dialog.
Notice that the icon on the quick-stat button has changed to show a
normal distribution. Hovering the mouse over the button will also reveal
a tooltip showing the input statistical data.
Lets also input a distribution for the Toppling Joints Dip. Click on
the quick-stat button, and enter the following data:

Distribution: Normal

Standard Deviation: 5

Click anywhere in the Input Data dialog to close the quick-stat dialog.
A summary of the random variables can be viewed in the Geometry
Statistics dialog. Click Statistics at the bottom-left corner of the
Geometry tab. This is an alternative to inputting and editing geometric
random variables. Click Cancel to close the Geometry Statistics dialog.

Strength
Select the Strength tab in the Input Data dialog. Enter the following
data for the base and toppling joints.

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Base Joints

Mohr Coulomb model

Friction angle = 38

Toppling Joints

Mohr Coulomb model

Friction angle = 25

Lets enter the following statistical distributions for the base joints and
toppling joints friction angles using the quick-stat dialogs. Remember to
leave the 3x Std. Dev. check box turned on.
Base Joints Friction Angle

Distribution Normal

Standard Deviation: 2

Toppling Joints Friction Angle

Distribution Normal

Standard Deviation: 3

Similarly, a summary of the shear strength random variables can be

viewed in the Shear Strength Statistics dialog. Click the Statistics
button at the bottom-left corner of the Strength tab. Strength-related
random variables may be input or edited in this dialog. Click Cancel to
close the Shear Strength Statistics dialog.

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Click OK in the Input Data dialog to submit the values and close the
Input Data dialog.
Note that the slope shown in the 2-D and 3-D views is calculated from the
mean geometric and strength input values.
We are now ready to run the probabilistic analysis.

Compute
Click Compute to run the RocTopple Probabilistic analysis.
The progress of the calculation is indicated in the Compute Samples
dialog.
Using the Latin Hypercube sampling method, RocTopple will generate
5,000 random input data samples for each random variable, using the
specified statistical distributions. Likewise, it will compute the safety
factor for 5,000 possible slopes.
Note that Auto-Compute is currently turned off. This is why we had to
manually click Compute to get results. Auto-Compute can be turned
on by going to AnalysisAutocompute, and checking on Autocompute for
probability analysis. Dont check it on, and click Cancel to close the
Autocompute dialog.
Turning on Autocompute will result in the re-sampling of random
variables and the re-calculation of results each time an input is changed.
This is not recommended for calculating a large number of samples.

Probabilistic Analysis Results

The primary result of interest from a Probabilistic analysis is the
Probability of Failure. This is displayed in the legend at the top-left
corner of the 2-D view.
For this example, if you entered the Input Data correctly, you should
obtain a Probability of Failure (PF) of 91% (PF = 0.91).

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TIP: To change the number of decimals displayed for the Probability of

Failure, right-click on the 2-D view and go to Display Options. The
number of decimals can be changed under FS Significant Digits.

Info Viewer
A summary of the analysis results is displayed in the Info Viewer. To
access the Info Viewer, select the Info Viewer option from the toolbar or
the Analysis Menu
Select AnalysisInfo Viewer
Under the section Probabilistic Analysis Results, you should see the
following:
Probabilistic Analysis Results
Number of Samples

5000

Number of Valid Computations

5000

Number of Failed Slopes

4552

Number of Safe Slopes

448

Probability of Failure

0.91

Probability of Failure for Converged Samples 0.91

The results show that for 5000 samples, all samples had valid geometry
(Number of Valid Computations = 5000). Out of the number of valid
computations, 4552 samples failed (factor of safety < 1), while 448
samples are safe (factor of safety >= 1). Note that these two values should
add up to the number of valid computations.
The Probability of Failure is equal to the Number of Failed Slopes
divided by the Number of Valid Computations (4552/5000 = 0.91).
The Probability of Failure for Converged Samples is equal to the
Number of Failed Slopes divided by the number of samples for
which a safety factor was found. In this case, all 5000 samples
converged, and so the Probability of Failure for Converged Samples is
equal to the Probability of Failure.
NOTE: for a discussion of the Probability of Failure see the RocTopple
help system.

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Probabilistic Analysis Tutorial

Histograms
To plot histograms of results after a Probabilistic Analysis, select Plot
Histogram from the toolbar:

Make sure Highlight Data is checked on.

Select PLOT to plot a histogram of the Factor of Safety. The histogram
represents the distribution of the Factor of Safety for all valid slopes
generated by the random sampling of the Input Data. The red bars to the
left represent slopes with Factor of Safety less than 1.0.
The green line is a best-fit to the Factor of Safety distribution.

Relative Frequency

Highlighted Data = Factor of Safety < 1 (4552 of 5000 samples)

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Factor of Safety

Probability of Failure: 0.9104

BEST FIT: mean = 0.894194 fit = Triangular s.d. = 0.943518 min = 0.44724 max = 10.0269

Mean Factor of Safety

At the bottom of the histogram plot, notice the mean, fit, standard
deviation, minimum and maximum values of the Factor of Safety
distribution.

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Note that the mean Factor of Safety from a Probabilistic Analysis (i.e.
the average of all of the factors of safety generated by the Probabilistic
Analysis) will in general, be different from the Factor of Safety of the
Mean Slope (i.e. the factor of safety of the slope corresponding to the
mean Input Data values).
In this case:

From the histogram, the mean factor of safety = 0.894.

The factor of safety of the Mean Slope = 0.624 (if you were to
change to deterministic analysis).

Theoretically, for an infinite number of samples, these two values should

be equal. However, due to the random nature of the statistical sampling,
the two values will usually be different for a typical probabilistic analysis
with a finite number of samples.

Histograms of Other Data

In addition to the Factor of Safety, you can also plot histograms of
random input variables (i.e. any input data variable which was assigned a
statistical distribution).
Select Plot Histogram from the toolbar.
In the dialog, select Data to Plot = Toppling Joint Spacing, and select
PLOT. A histogram of the Toppling Joint Spacing and the input data
distribution will be displayed.

Relative Frequency

Highlighted Data = Factor of Safety < 1 (4552 of 5000 samples)

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Toppling Joint Spacing (m)

Probability of Failure: 0.9104

SAMPLED: mean = 10 fit = Normal s.d. = 0.493358 min = 8.50385 max = 11.493

In this case, the sampled distribution (bars) is a Normal distribution,

with parameters listed at the bottom of the plot.

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Close the Toppling Joint Spacing histogram view, and the Safety Factor
histogram view, by selecting the X in the upper right corner of each view.

Scatter Plots
Scatter plots allow you to examine the relationship between any two
analysis variables. To generate a Scatter Plot, select Plot Scatter from
the toolbar.
In the Scatter Plot dialog, select the variables you would like to plot on
the X and Y axes. For example, lets plot the Toppling Joint Dip (X Axis
Dataset) versus the Factor of Safety (Y Axis Dataset).

Select OK to generate the plot. Data with factor of safety less than 1 is
highlighted in red, as indicated in the title at the top of the plot.

Highlighted Data = Factor of Safety < 1 (4552 points)

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Factor of Safety

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Toppling Joint Dip (deg)

Probability of Failure: 0.9104

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From the plot, we can see that the slope is generally more stable for
steeply dipping toppling joints. This is reasonable considering blocks
topple when their weights fall outside of the block base. Thus, for a block
of the same aspect ratio, its weight will gradually fall outside the base as
its gradually tilted. It is also the reason why a threshold is clearly
observed in the graph: past a certain toppling joint dip, blocks start
toppling.
A line of regression can be fitted to the scatter plot. Right-click on the
graph, and check on Regression Line.
The alpha and beta values of the regression line are shown at the
bottom of the plot.

The alpha value (-6.59) represents the y-intercept of the linear

regression line on the Scatter plot.

The beta value (0.107) represents the slope of the linear

regression line.

The Correlation Coefficient indicates the degree of correlation

between the two variables plotted. This value varies between -1
and 1, where a number close to 0 indicates a poor correlation, and
a number close to 1 or -1 indicates a good correlation. A negative
correlation coefficient indicates the slope of the regression line is
negative.

You are encouraged to experiment further with the probabilistic analysis

features of RocTopple (e.g. Plot in Excel and Change Plot Data in the
right-click menu for charts, etc).
This concludes the RocTopple Probabilistic Analysis Tutorial.

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