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Sondra Polan Exploring The Binary World Binomial and Geometric Distributions

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125 views13 pages

Sondra Polan Exploring The Binary World Binomial and Geometric Distributions

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EDIT 610 Multimedia Authoring: design document

Your name: Sondra Polan

Project title: Exploring the Binary World

Subject: Binomial and Geometric Distributions

PART 1:

Course Analysis and Objectives:

Topic: The focus of this interactive course to teach the concepts of the binomial and geometric random
variables, a challenging topic for many AP statistics students. For the binomial random variable, we count
the number of times an outcome occurs in a fixed number of trials. For the geometric situation, we count the
number of repetitions until the specified outcome occurs. Students often have trouble distinguishing between
these two different scenarios. The course will allow students to go at their own pace and will include video
instruction, calculator tips, as well as interactive questions.

Target Audience: The intended audience are AP statistics students, but the course would be useful to
college students as well as adults and educators who need a refresher on the topic.

Prior Knowledge: Students in the course will have just completed a unit on basic probability as well as a
brief introduction to descrete random variables. Since the math curriculum had changed to the common core
curriculum, this will be students first exposure to combinatoric mathematics (nCr).

General Timeline: This unit is part of the AP statistics curriculum, an introductory college course on
statistics. Prior to 2015 students would learn about binomial distributions in New York state with the
Algebra 2 curriculum. After 2015 binomial distributions are no longer part of the common core math
curriculum. In high school, only students in AP Statistics, mainly Juniors and Seniors, learn about binomial
and geometric random variables.

Learning Objectives: After participating in the course, students will be able to

1) Recognize situations involving binomial verses geometric random variables


2) Determine whether the conditions for binomial and geometric distributions have been met.
3) Calculate and interpret probabilities involving geometric and binomial distributions
4) Use technology to solve applications involving these random variables

Materials Needed to implement the project


I already have access to Office 365 including PowerPoint as well as the TI Nspire software. I have
various resources such as textbooks and websites that can be used to develop engaging problems. Once
the interactive course is set up, I can reserve a laptop cart, so students can test out the project.

1
Rationale for using interactive multimedia program
Student will be able navigate the course at their own pace, even repeating sections when necessary, to
gain a comprehensive understanding of the topic. Interactive questions will be threaded within the
course to help students gauge their own level of understanding.

Available Technology for implementation


My school provides all students and staff with access to office 365 applications. Although we do not
have one to one computers, we do have a laptop cart that are shared within the department. I will
reserve the cart for three to four days, so students can complete course during class.

Timeframe for implementation


I expect to have students complete the course toward the end of November,2017 or the beginning of
December 2017. I will reserve the computer carts for three to four days during that timeframe.

2
Design:
Description of content and scope of project.
The topics addressed in my course are binomial and geometric random variables. The course is divided
into two main lessons and a mixed practice section. Verbal directions are provided on each slide. From
the home screen, students have the option to click on the binomial, geometric, or practice icon. Both the
binomial and geometric icon link to a page providing four options. The basic fact icon links to a video
describing each distribution, their formulas and how they can be identified. The “watch a video” icon
models an example in detail. The Calculator icon provides an additional example using features of the TI
Nspire calculator. The practice problem icon links to interactive quiz questions specific to the lesson.
Students are provided with the option of retrying problem if they answer incorrectly or can view a
detailed worked out solution. Once they complete both lessons students are directed to the mixed
practice problem set. The mixed problem set is interactive and provides an option to view worked out
solutions on each slide. The objective of the mixed practice is to help students to identify situations that
are binomial or geometric and to provide practice applying the formulas and calculator techniques. One
additional feature on the basic facts for binomial page is a link to the Phet simulation activity “Plinko
Probability”. In this interactive simulation, students drop Plinko balls through a triangular grid of pegs
and see them accumulate in bins. Students can then switch to a histogram view and compare their results
to a binomial distribution.
The program is designed so students can start with any of the lessons or mixed problem set. Students
have the option to return to the main menu or to the submenus at any point in the course. The course is
can be completed in 3 to 4 periods with 39 minutes in each period.

Learning objectives of project


Students will be able to
1. Recognize situations involving binomial verses geometric random variables
2. Determine whether the conditions for binomial and geometric distributions have been met.
3. Calculate and interpret probabilities involving geometric and binomial distributions
4. Use technology to solve applications involving these random variables

3
Flow Chart for Interactive program on the Binomial and Geometric Random Variables

START Help

Binomial Random Geometric Random


Variable Variable

HOW to Recognize HOW to Recognize


BINS BITS

Example Explained in Example Explained in


video video

Calculator Tip Calculator Tip

Did you learn Did you learn


geometric NO NO binomial random
random variables?
variables?
Yes Yes

Credits
Mixed Problems (level 1-3)

Mixed Problems (level 4-5)

4
Student assessment methods

Each lesson contains interactive multiple-choice questions. Correct answers will be displayed after the
question is submitted. Once students have completed the binomial and geometric lessons, they can assess
their understanding through a mixed interactive problem set. The questions in this program initially are
basic, equivalent to what the College board considers a Level 1 to Level 3 difficulty level rating, and
then move onto the more challenging Level 4 and 5 AP problems. At the end of the unit, students
complete a comprehensive test at the end of the unit.

Rationale for using interactive multimedia program

Students often struggle with the concepts in this unit. They have trouble distinguishing situations
involving geometric verses binomial distributions and applying the formulas. The interactive program
allows students to go out their own pace enabling students to master the concepts. I will incorporate
videos to model the problems and add interactive questions with instant feedback, so students can assess
their current level of understanding.

PART 2 Development:

How would you obtain the media content?

I obtained some of the images from Google images, Pixabay, and Flixr via the creativecommons.org
website (https://search.creativecommons.org/) making sure that the images were free to use and modify.
In addition, I downloaded free to use animated gifs from Dave Sutton’s website
http://www.sevenoaksart.co.uk/. Some of the images I created myself using the draw, object, and
animation tools of Microsoft’s PowerPoint. I obtained the Pink panther theme song from SoundCloud
via creativecommon.org. I downloaded some of the sound effects from audiomicro.com from their free
to use area. I created all videos and voice recordings to avoid copyright issues. The Phet simulations are
available to all educators and are free to use. At the end of my program, I included a reference page to
provide proper credit for authors of the sources I used.

What challenges did you encounter during the development phase?


During the development stage, I had issues with some of the links partly due to the large number of
slides within the program (106). The current program contains 13 interactive questions almost all with 5
choices. Each response had an option to “try again” or “show me how”. Since I wanted to have a
consistent visual appearance I duplicated the slides. As a result, I had to make sure that I changed each
link properly, an extremely time-consuming process. Another issue occurred when certain animations in
the PowerPoint only played once. I followed Professor Wang’s advice and added a blank slide before the
slide with the desired animation along with the suggested protocol for the options.
Another challenge was having the videos play properly. I wanted the videos to open in full screen after
student clicked the icon. I also wanted my voice recording of the directions to be automatic upon entry
into the slide. If you click on the video before the voice recording was complete, you hear the two
5
recordings simultaneously. Unfortunately, I did not find an option to stop the voice recording once the
video is started. To address this situation, I would need to modify the design of the slides. Due to the
timeframe, I was not able to modify the program prior to implementation. Finally, due to the size of the
file, some of the media from the program cannot be viewed in PowerPoint online and must be
downloaded and opened in the full version of the program. In addition, the show file online shows the
number of slides and allows the user to flip through each slide. When the program in opened in the full
version, thankfully the navigations disappears.

How did you resolve the copyright issue, if there’s any?


To avoid copyright issues, I only used free to use images and sound files which I accessed through the
creative commons websites, audiomicro.com and Dave Sutton’s website
http://www.sevenoaksart.co.uk/. I also created all videos and voice recordings.

Implementation:

Description of the learning environment:


The program was implemented December 1 to December 6, 2017 in my third period one-year AP
statistics class. During this time, students used touch screen laptops which are shared within our very
large department. I also used an access point to increase web access. Prior to implementation, I asked
students to bring their headphones or earbuds to class. All students and staff have access to Office 365
applications at home and at school including PowerPoint and Teams. Since my students are using Teams
in my class on a regular basis, I felt it was the most efficient way to share the program. Students also use
the TI Nspire calculator in class and have access to an online version of the TI Nspire software at home.

Description of the implementation plan


I implemented the program for 4 consecutive 39-minute periods in my third period one-year AP
Statistics class. I have 16 students in the course, both juniors and seniors, with a wide range of
experience with computers and mathematical backgrounds. Students brought headphones or earbuds to
class during this time. I had created a packet with the notes and problems with space for students to
write as they follow along with videos. Students retrieved their assigned laptop from the cart daily and
logged in to their office 365 account. On the first day, I had students download the program. The
students with less computer experience were confused with the difference between accessing the
program using the online and full version of PowerPoint and needed handholding from either myself or a
fellow student. Once students downloaded the program, I suggested that start with either the binomial or
geometric lesson and a possible timeframe for viewing lessons but that they could go at their own pace. I
shared that I would be walk around the room during this timeframe and was available for questions and
that they would have a unit test on the material on Thursday December 7. I also let students know that
they can access program from their homes. This was beneficial since some students knew they were
going to be absent due to field trips and college visits.
One unexpected problem that some students encountered was an earbud situation. The earbuds for the
iPhone 7 do not fit into the port of the laptops. Since the class is small they viewed the video on low

6
volumes and brought the correct earbuds the following day. The other issue was I had missed setting an
option to open two of the videos in full screen. I corrected this for the following day. Students were able
to navigate the program easily and commented that they liked the transitions, animations, and pink
panther theme song. They also like the ability to re-watch the videos and view solutions on the “show
me how” slide. My strong students commented that they like the ability to go at their own pace. My
weaker students missed the direct instruction and interaction with other students. Wearing the
headphones/earbuds during class discouraged student interactions and discussion. In the future, I would
have students view instructional videos at home and use the class time for the practice. Due to time, most
students to not have a chance to use the Phet simulations in class.

Evaluation:

a) Formative evaluation

 How did you conduct formative evaluation to ensure the whole process is successful?

To make sure all the links of the program were working, I reviewed my work on a continuous basis. I
also listened to the feedback from Professor Wang and my classmates on my weekly uploads. I also
asked one of my students from my AP statistics level 2 program who had already completed this unit to
view my project. She commented: “Hi, Mrs. Polan I saw the powerpoint. I thought it was pretty cool! .
There was a little bit of lag when I clicked on the tabs, but I think that's just my computer. I really liked the
transitions between each slide as well as how it tells you the correct answer in the practice problems. I really
liked it. “

My chair person also viewed the project and really enjoyed it. Also, I roped my husband, who does not
know any statistics, into testing out each link. Prior to implementation, I uploaded the program into my
Microsoft OneDrive account and shared with my class in their teams account as well Maria Bradley,
our district’s professional development support. She was able to test out the program and commented
that she loved seeing how the PowerPoint features could be used. My meeting with her was crucial
since we established that we could not view the project in the online version and that we needed to
open in the full version. I then double checked that the laptops could easily access the link and open the
program to avoid issues on the day of implementation.

7
b) Summative evaluation

During the implementation of this project, I will record observations of students’ behavior, questions, and
comments. To assess students at the completion of the unit, I created the following unit test with a mixture
of multiple choice and free response questions. I requested that work be shown for all multiple-choice
questions marked with an asterisk as well as free response problems, so I could ascertain students
understanding of each question. In appendix A, I have attached an answer key and in appendix B, I have
attached a copy of each students work.

Name___________________________________ Date____________
Test on Discrete Random Variables
Part 1: Work must be shown for all multiple choice marked with an asterisk (*)
*1. A marketing survey compiled data on the total number of televisions in households. If X = the number
of televisions in a randomly-selected household, and we omit the rare cases of more than 5 televisions, then
X has the following distribution:

What is the probability that a randomly chosen household has at least two televisions?
(a) 0.19
(b) 0.20
(c) 0.29
(d) 0.39
(e) 0.61

2. For the random variable X to have a geometric distribution, which of the following conditions must X
satisfy?
I. 𝜌 < 0.5
II. The number of trials is fixed
III. Trials are independent.
IV. The probability of success has to be the same for each trial.
V. All outcomes in the sample space are equally likely.

(a) III and IV


(b) II, III, IV, and V
(c) I and III
(d) I, III, and V
(e) II and III

8
*3. An inspection procedure at a manufacturing plant involves picking at least three of the four items in
perfect condition. If in reality 90% of the whole lot is perfect, what is the probability that the lot will be
accepted?
(a) 0.2916
(b) 0.3439
(c) 0.6561
(d) 0.7084
(e) 0.947

4. Roll one 8-sided die 10 times. The probability of getting exactly 3 sevens in those 10 rolls is given by

*5. Suppose the probability that a softball player gets a hit in any single at-bat is 0.300. Assuming that her
chance of getting a hit on a particular time at bat is independent of her other times at bat, what is the
probability that she will not get a hit until her fourth time at bat in a game?
4
(a)( ) (0.3)1 (0.7)3
3
4
(b) ( ) (0.3)3 (0.7)7
3
4
(c) ( ) (0.3)3 (0.7)1
1
(d) (0.3)3(0.7)1

(e) (0.3)1(0.7)3

9
Use the following scenario for questions 6 and 7,

It has been estimated that about 30% of frozen chickens are contaminated with enough salmonella bacteria

to cause illness if improperly cooked. Chickens are delivered to grocery stores in crates of 24. Assume the

chickens are independently selected for inclusion in the crate.

* 6. The probability that a certain crate has less than 4 contaminated chickens is
(a) 0.0424
(b) 0.0686
(c) 0.1111
(d) 0.8889

(e) 0.9576

*7. The mean and standard deviation of the number of contaminated chickens in a crate are
(a) µ = 7; σ = 2.24
(b) µ = 7; σ = 2.68
(c) µ = 7; σ = 5.04
(d) µ = 7.2; σ = 2.24
(e) µ = 7.2; σ = 5.04

Part 2: Free Response


Show all your work. Indicate clearly the methods you use, because you will be graded on the correctness of
your methods as well as on the accuracy and completeness of your results and explanations.

An Olympic archer is able to hit the bull’s eye 80% of the time. Assume each shot is independent of the
others. Suppose the archer shoots 6 arrows.

8. Find the mean and standard deviation of the number of bull’s eyes she may get.

9. What is the probability that her first bull’s eye comes on the third arrow?

10. What is the probability she gets exactly 4 bull’s eyes?

11. What is the probability that she gets at least 4 bull’s eyes?

12. Only 4% of the population has type AB blood. On average, how many donors must be checked fo find
someone with type AB blood?

10
c) Analysis of project

Observational analysis

Prepare to document what you have observed during the implementation. For example, how is students'
motivation? How do they interact with your program? Do they successfully use the buttons you created
to navigate? Do they discuss with each other during the use of the program? Do they like a certain
section of the program?

During class, students were focused and were easily able to navigate the program. They enjoyed the
music, animations, and transitions. They followed the video instruction along with the packet. During
class, I would circulate around room answering questions. During the first day students were in rows
due to a test in other classes that day. During the other sessions, students were in their usual group
tables. During the first few days, most students did not interact with each other. I suspect that listening
to the videos with the headphones or earbuds discouraged interaction. On the third day, students had
problems accessing the WIFI in the middle of class, so I decided to go over a couple of problems on the
smartboard. Most of the stronger students said that they had already completed those problems and
continued with the mixed problem section. The weaker students felt they followed my live instruction
better then viewing the same instruction on the video. I suspect that they felt more comfortable asking
questions without the headphones even though they had opportunity during the other sessions. During
the fourth and last session students completed mixed problem section (without headphones). A couple
of the weaker students re-watched the videos and felt that seeing them again after live presentation was
helpful. During class discussion at the end of the project, students commented that they enjoyed the
program but missed the class interaction would prefer to watch the videos at home and do problems in
class. I also missed the class interaction and would modify the implementation of the program.

11
Analysis of Summative Assessment

Scanned copies of students’ papers are attached in appendix B. Students did well on the assessments
with the mean grade of 93. 5 and a standard deviation of 5.6. Several students got questions 3 incorrect
since missed seeing the clue “at least” and they did not perform multiple cases with the formula.
Although students knew to do several cases with clue of “at most” for question 6, several did not
include the case when the random variable equal to 0. Several students did not use the proper standard
deviation formula for question 8 although provided on the AP reference sheet.

c). Other summative evaluation

 How can you modify or revise the program to improve its next implementation?

1. To handle the issue that the voice recording can be heard at the same time as the video if a student
clicks too soon, I would have video on a separate slide and have a fake button for students to press.
I would design the image to look exactly like the opening screen of the video.
2. I would include a slide where the user can download an accompanying document containing the
notes and problems.
3. I would add a video providing video instruction on how to use the Phet simulation
4. I would have students view the videos at home and work on the problem sets in class without
headphones or earbuds. Ideally, I would add a Microsoft form with questions about video to ensure
that students viewed video.
5. I would add free response questions from former AP exams with a video explanation of the
solution.

12
 Weaknesses of this instructional unit

As stated in the above section, the video recording and voice instruction can be heard simultaneously if
student clicks on the video too soon. In addition, due to the size of the program it cannot be viewed
using PowerPoint online and must be used in the full version of the application.

The other weakness of more a matter of viewing videos in class which reduced the interactions among
the students.

 Strengths of this instructional unit

Students enjoyed the interactive questions and the access to the worked-out solutions if they had an
incorrect answer. They also liked the ability to go at their own pace and the ability to replay the videos.
They loved the animations and pink panther music. They commented that the instructional videos were
clear and appreciated the accompanying document to follow along.

 Is there any gap between your expectation (learning objectives) and their performance?

Students generally performed well on the summative assessment. In the summative assessment analysis
section, I pointed out questions students answered incorrectly. Adding additional practice questions will
help improve performance.

Part 3: Develop a video to coach teachers to incorporate the project designed in their classroom

Part 4 Appendix

A. Answer key to Assessment


B. Student work

Appendix A (answer key) and Appendix B (student work)

Part 5 Final Power point presentation

https://screencast-o-matic.com/watch/cbl6DL2GQc

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