Rainfall Analysis
Rainfall Analysis
6 Issue
Abstract. Analysis of a design storm, explained as the expected rainfall intensity for a given storm duration and return
period is carried out to establish Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) relationships. The IDF relationships
are essential for the designing of hydraulic structures for future planning and management. The intent was to deter-
mine IDF relationship for the Barak River Basin in India. This region receives heavy rainfall but lacks potential in
harnessing the available water resources. Rain gauge stations are not so frequent in this region. Under this condition,
the engineers are bound to use IDF relationships. Using the 24-hour annual maximum rainfall and disaggregated
hourly maximum rainfall as a measure of rainfall intensity for each station, IDF curves and isopluvial maps of rain-
fall intensities of 30-minute to 24-hour durations were generated. Analysis was done using the best fit amongst the
Gumbel, Log Pearson Type III and Lognormal probability distribution functions. The goodness-of-fit tests indicated
the Log Pearson Type III distribution was a suitable distribution for the area. After developing IDF curves for each
station, an average IDF curve was developed using the Thiessen Polygon method in ArcGIS. The IDF relationship
developed can be used as valuable information for the planning and management of hydraulic structures in the region.
Keywords: Barak River, design storm, IDF curve, isopluvial map, probability distribution, Thiessen Polygon
state (Sharma et al. 2016a; Das et al. 2016), few studies of DS was conducted based on topographic and rainfall
have been conducted in the Barak River Basin. Generating characteristics to determine rainfall IDF relationships in
IDF relationships requires good quality and long-term his- Botswana for three homogeneous regions which were con-
torical data. A common problem in developing countries structed with the K-means Clustering algorithm (Alemaw,
is the non-availability or sparse network of rain gauge Chaoka 2016). Autorun analysis on a daily time scale was
stations, whose data are the ultimate basis for establish- used to generate wet and dry spell durations and rainfall
ing IDF relationships. Some interpolated rainfall data are intensities (Subyani, Al-Amri 2015). IDF curves were pro-
available on the Global Weather Data for SWAT site and posed using Kothyari and Garde’s empirical equation and
can be downloaded from the link (https://rda.ucar.edu/pub/ then IDF curves were derived by developing a modified
cfsr.html). This dataset is the result of close cooperation IDF equation so as to maintain compatibility with changes
between two organizations, the National Centers for Envi- in the rainfall pattern in Mumbai (Zope et al. 2016).
ronmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for They proposed an IDF equation for Mumbai city using
Atmospheric Research (NCAR), who completed a global a single rain gauge station. Flood frequency analysis using
climate data reanalysis over the 36-years period from 1979 probability distribution functions were performed, as they
to 2014. are useful in urban development planning and floodplain
IDF curves are discussed in numerous hydrological management (Izinyon, Ajumuka 2013; Sharma et al.
books (Chow et al. 1988). A relationship for intensity 2016a). Various studies have been carried out in different
of rainfall, duration and frequency was developed for parts of Saudi Arabia (Elsebaie 2012; Al-anazi, El-Sebaie
Rwanda. The stations were divided into five homogeneous 2013; Subyani, Al-Amri 2015). The impact of climate
regions and quantile estimation was carried out using the change on rainfall IDF was studied in Alabama (Mirhos-
Generalised Logistic, Gamma and Pearson Type III and seini et al. 2013).
Generalised Extreme Value distributions (Wagesho, Claire The Barak River Basin has good hydropower poten-
2016). IDF curves were developed for shorter durations tial but it is rather under-developed and is lacking when
and various return periods in different regions (Logah et al. it comes to harnessing the potential of available water
2013; Rasel, Islam 2015; Palaka et al. 2016; Dar, Maqbool resources. Floods, drainage congestion and bank erosion
2016). IDF curves were developed for the Sinai Peninsula are major problems of the basin. Floods are caused by
with available methods of estimation of recurrence periods, banks spilling over due to inadequate carrying capacity
such as California, Hazen, Kimbell and Gumbel. A contour of the channels; this results from aggravation of the river
map of Sherman coefficients was developed using GIS beds, backing up effect of the main river on to its tributar-
tools. Rainfall intensities obtained using the Log Pearson ies and also due to excessive rainfall in the region. Due
Type III (LPIII) and Gumbel methods showed uniformity to poor drainage, many depressions remain waterlogged
with the results accomplished in studies carried out previ- long after monsoons. Hydrological analysis is a prereq-
ously on the area (Fathy et al. 2014). Isopluvial maps were uisite for the better utilization of the resources (Bora,
developed for the Tehri-Garhwal Himalayan region, India. Choudhury 2015). In this study, an attempt has been made
Isopluvial maps show the spatial variability and IDF rela- to develop an Intensity-Duration-Frequency model for the
tionships developed for the Bhagirathi-Bhillangana catch- Barak River Basin using annual maximum series (AMS).
ment (Sarkar et al. 2010). Spatial and temporal variation The IDF model can be used to estimate DS intensities.
of IDF parameters was developed in the Awash River The suggested expression allows the estimation of the
Basin, Ethiopia (Gebreslassie 2014). IDF curves were expected rainfall intensities for different durations and
developed using the Gumbel and LPIII distributions, with return periods in the basin area.
the Gumbel distribution showing higher results than the
LPIII distribution (Antigha, Ogarekpe 2013). The safety 2. Study area
factor was considered to be necessary while evaluating IDF
curves for different parts of a city because rainfall inten- The Barak River, one of the major rivers of south
sity is not uniform throughout a city (Sharma et al. 2016b). Assam, India, rises in the hill country of Manipur State,
A mathematical model was developed between peak flood where it is the biggest and most important of the hill coun-
discharge and return period to assess rainfall for different try rivers. The Barak Basin covers the States of Assam,
storm durations for the Bhadar catchment, Gujarat (Bhatt Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland and Tripura. From Assam,
et al. 2014). A study was carried out to find the influence of it enters Bangladesh, where the Surma and Kushiyara
global warming on rainfall intensity in Toronto before and rivers begin, and is a part of the Surma-Meghna River
after 1980 (Carlier, Khattabi 2016). A regional analysis System. The Barak River is the single largest contributory
Generation of Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves for the Barak River Basin 3
( )
1/3
t
pt = p24 (1)
24
∑(log X – log X )
√
2
of less than 24 hours, such as 0.5-hour, 1-hour, 2-hour,
σlog X = (5)
n – 1 3-hour, etc. are of huge significance for various drainage
designs and for water resource management, they were
n∑(log X – log X )
3
Cs = (6) chosen for the construction of the IDF curves for this study.
(n – 1) (n – 2)σ
3
log X The gist of this study is that frequency analysis of rainfall
intensity for various durations and return periods was used
The value of XT for a specified return period was com- to derive the spatial distribution of IDF for the region.
puted by equation (7), For the respective periods, the maximum of 0,5-hour,
1-hour, 2-hour, 3-hour, 6-hour, 12-hour and 24-hour rain-
log XT = log X + KT σlog X (7) fall are used for frequency modelling. The distributions,
namely the LPIII, LN and Gumbel were fitted to the rainfall
3.3. Goodness-of-fit (GOF) measures data. After model fitting and performance interpretation,
the best distribution was picked based on goodness-of-fit
For the selection of a particular distribution repre- tests, as discussed.
senting a rainfall series, for the dependable projection of
a storm event, it is essential to find the best fit method of 3.5. Derivation of IDF equation
frequency analysis. The three different most widely used
GOF tests, viz., Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S), Anderson- The IDF formulae depict a relation among maximum
Darling (A-D) and Chi-Squared (χ2) tests, are imple- rainfall intensity as a dependent variable, with other rel-
mented to select the most appropriate model. The said evant parameters being rainfall duration and frequency
tests compute test statistics, which are used to check the as independent variables. There are many frequently
suitability of a given distribution to fit the data. The test used functions relating these variables mentioned in the
statistics are described in Table 1. The EasyFit software literature of hydrology applications (Chow et al. 1988).
employs the method of moments for the Gumbel and LPIII There are some necessary steps for forming the equation
distributions, and the maximum likelihood method for for estimating the intensity of rainfall for a specific return
the LN distribution for the estimation of the parameters period and given rainfall duration: these rely mainly on the
(Sharma et al. 2016a). The estimated parameters for differ- results attained from the IDF curves. The general form of
ent parametric distributions were fitted to 24-hour series at empirical equation can be written as shown in equation (8):
all the stations. The test statistics were computed and the
probability distributions were ranked based on the lowest CT rm
I= (8)
values of the test statistics. T de
3.4. Construction of IDF curves where I is average rainfall intensity for any duration Td, Tr
is the return period, and C, e and m are constants (Elsebaie
The Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves were 2012).
worked out for each station. As shorter rainfall durations
The Thiessen Polygon method estimates average rain- The annual maximum series was extracted from daily
fall aspects over an area. The recorded rainfall at each rain rainfall and disaggregated to smaller durations using the
gauge station is given a weightage according to the posi- IMD reduction formula for all the 23 stations. The AMS
tion of the station with respect to the boundary of the area. was subjected to preliminary analysis for consistency
The average intensity of rainfall over an area is expressed using the Double Mass Curve method. Figure 2 shows
in equation (9): a comparison between observed and expected 24-hour
rainfall based on the Gumbel, LPIII and LN methods for
I1 A1 + I2 A2 + ... + In An station 236925. The performances of the models were
I= (9)
A1 + A2 + ... + An decided against a model performance index, which gave
very high model efficiency, a coefficient of determina-
where I1, I2,…, In are the intensities of recorded rainfall at tion (R2) that is above 90%. The goodness-of-fit of the
the respective stations 1, 2,.., n and A1, A2,…, An are the distribution was worked out using EasyFit software 5.6.
areas of the Thiessen Polygons, respectively. The Thiessen It shows the model parameters and the goodness-of-fit of
Polygon method is used to produce an average IDF curve the Gumbel, LPIII and LN distributions. The results of
for the whole study area (Sarkar et al. 2010). goodness-of-fit tests for 24-hourseries using the K-S, A-D
and χ2 tests for the stations are shown in Table 2. From the
3.7. Isopluvial map results, LPIII can be considered more reliable for the study
area. After completion of the above steps, the IDF curves
The rainfall intensity values at different sites inside were generated for each station at time steps 30-minute,
the Barak River Basin were interpolated using the Geo- 1-hour, 2-hour, 3-hour, 6-hour, 12-hour and 24-hour and
statistical Analyst in GIS. To show spatial variability of an average IDF curve for the whole area was deduced
rainfall intensity, Isopluvial maps were generated using using the Thiessen Polygon method in ArcGIS. Figure
the Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) method (Sarkar et 3 shows the Thiessen Polygon map of the basin. Thiessen
al. 2010). To interpolate a value for any unmeasured site, Polygon area weightages were assigned to each station
IDW executes the assumption that each measured point and the quantiles at each station were used to generate an
has a local impact that decreases with distance. average IDF curve for the basin. Figure 4 shows the IDF
Table 3. Rainfall Intensities [mm per hour] for different durations Table 4. Rainfall intensity parameters for
and return periods by the LPIII method for the entire basin the Barak Basin area
Fig. 4. Average IDF curves for the basin using (a) Gumbel, (b) Log Pearson Type III and (c) Lognormal distributions
Generation of Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves for the Barak River Basin 9
Fig. 5. Isopluvial maps of 30-minute rainfall intensities for different return periods
10 V. Basumatary, B. Sundar Sil
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