Design and Analysis of Experiments

Lecture #1
Course Overview and Introduction

Dr. Ahmed Shaban

 Design of Engineering Experiments
Introduction

• Goals of the course and assumptions

• The strategy of experimentation
• Some basic principles and terminology
• Guidelines for planning, conducting and
analyzing experiments

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 Assumptions
• You have
– a first course in statistics
– heard of the normal distribution
– know about the mean and variance
– have done some regression analysis or heard about it
– know something about ANOVA or heard of it
• Have used Windows and MS Office
• Have done or will be conducting experiments
• Have not heard of factorial designs, fractional
factorial designs, and RSM.
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 Course Description
Objectives
The course aims at providing the students with the knowledge
and skills that can allow them design, conduct and analyze
engineering experiments efficiently and effectively.
Outcomes
1. Construct and interpret visual displays of data.
2. Discuss the different experimentation strategies.
3. Apply the experimental design procedure.
4. Identify and select suitable experimental designs.
5. Interpret statistical analysis results.
6. Use statistical packages to design and analyze experiments.

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Course Outline
• Introduction to Design of Experiments
• Descriptive Statistics
• Basics of Probability and Statistics (Review)
• Simple Comparative Experiments
• Design and Analysis of Single-Factor Experiments
• Design and Analysis of Experiments with Several Factors
• Fractional Factorial Design
• Introduction to Regression and Response Surface
Methodology

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Course References

Essential Textbooks:
• D. G. Montgomery: Design and Analysis of Experiments,
8th ed., John Wiley and Sons.
• D. G. Montgomery: Applied Statistics and Probability for
Engineers, John Wiley and Sons.
Auxiliary Textbooks:
• Montgomery, Runger, Hubele: Engineering Statistics, John
Wiley and Sons.

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Grading Scheme

Total Marks: 100

Attendance and Participation: 5%
Assignments: 5%
Project: 10%
Mid-term: 10%
Final Exam: 70% (70 Marks)

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 Introduction
• An experiment is a test or a series of tests
• Experiments are used widely in the engineering
world
– Process characterization & optimization
– Evaluation of material properties
– Product design & development
– Component & system tolerance determination
• “All experiments are designed experiments, some
are poorly designed, some are well-designed”

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 Example
• A metallurgical engineer is interested in
studying the effect of two different hardening
processes, oil quenching and saltwater
quenching, on an aluminum alloy.
• The objective of the experimenter (the
engineer) is to determine which quenching
solution produces the maximum hardness for
this particular alloy.

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 Example (Cont.)
As we consider this simple experiment, a number of important
questions come to mind:
• Are these two solutions the only quenching media of
potential interest?
• Are there any other factors that might affect hardness that
should be investigated or controlled in this experiment (such
as, the temperature of the quenching media)?
• How many coupons of alloy should be tested in each
quenching solution?
• How should the test coupons be assigned to the quenching
solutions, and in what order should the data be collected?
• What method of data analysis should be used?
• What difference in average observed hardness between the
two quenching media will be considered important?
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 Four eras of DOE
• The agricultural origins, 1918 – 1940s
– R. A. Fisher & his co-workers
– Profound impact on agricultural science
– Factorial designs, ANOVA
• The first industrial era, 1951 – late 1970s
– Box & Wilson, response surfaces
– Applications in the chemical & process industries
• The second industrial era, late 1970s – 1990
– Quality improvement initiatives in many companies
– Taguchi and robust parameter design, process robustness
• The modern era, beginning circa 1990
– Wide use of computer technology in DOE
– Expanded use of DOE in Six-Sigma and in business
– Use of DOE in computer experiments

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William Sealy Gosset (1876-1937)

Gosset's interest in barley cultivation led

him to speculate that design of
experiments should aim, not only at
improving the average yield, but also at
breeding varieties whose yield was
insensitive (robust) to variation in soil and
climate.

Gosset was a modest man who cut short

an admirer with the comment that “Fisher
would have discovered it all anyway.”

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R. A. Fisher (1890 – 1962) George E. P. Box

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 Strategy of Experimentation
• “Best-guess” experiments
– Used a lot
– More successful than you might suspect, but there are
disadvantages…
• One-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) experiments
– Sometimes associated with the “scientific” or
“engineering” method
– Devastated by interaction, also very inefficient
• Statistically designed experiments
– Based on Fisher’s factorial concept

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 Factorial Designs
• In a factorial experiment, all
possible combinations of
factor levels are tested
• The golf experiment:
– Type of driver
– Type of ball
– Walking vs. riding
– Type of beverage
– Time of round
– Weather
– Type of golf spike
– Etc, etc, etc…

DOX 5E Montgomery 15
Factorial Design

DOX 5E Montgomery 16
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 Basic Principles

• Statistical design of experiments (DOE)

– the process of planning experiments so that
appropriate data can be analyzed by statistical
methods that results in valid, objective, and
meaningful conclusions from the data
– involves two aspects: design and statistical
analysis

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DOE is a useful tool to:
– Learn about the process we are investigating
– Screen important variables
– Build a mathematical model
– Obtain prediction equations
– Optimize the response (if required)

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Three basic principles of Statistical DOE
• Replication
– allows an estimate of experimental error
– allows for a more precise estimate of the sample mean
value
• Randomization
– cornerstone of all statistical methods
– “average out” effects of extraneous factors
– reduce bias and systematic errors
• Blocking
– increases precision of experiment
– “factor out” variable not studied

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 Guidelines for Designing Experiments
• Recognition of and statement of the problem
– need to develop all ideas about the objectives of the
experiment - get input from everybody - use team
approach.
• Choice of factors, levels, ranges, and response
variables.
– Need to use engineering judgment or prior test results.
• Choice of experimental design
– sample size, replicates, run order, randomization,
software to use, design of data collection forms.

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• Performing the experiment
– vital to monitor the process carefully. Easy to
underestimate logistical and planning aspects in a
complex R and D environment.
• Statistical analysis of data
– provides objective conclusions - use simple graphics
whenever possible.
• Conclusion and recommendations
– follow-up test runs and confirmation testing to validate
the conclusions from the experiment.
• Do we need to add or drop factors, change
ranges, levels, new responses, etc.. ???

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 INPUTS OUTPUTS
(Factors) (Responses)
X v ariables Y v ariables

T ype of
cement

compr essive
Percent water
str ength

PROCESS:
T ype of
modulus of elasticity
Additives

Percent
Discov ering modulus of r upture
Additives
Optimal
Concrete
Mixi ng T i me Mixture Poisson's rati o

Curi ng
Conditions

% Plastici zer Optimum Concrete Mixture

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 INPUTS OUTPUTS
(Factors) (Responses)
X v ariables Y v ariables

T ype of Raw
Material

Mold
T emperature

Holdi ng PROCESS: thickness of molded

Pressure part

% shrinkage from
Holdi ng T ime
mold size
Manufacturing
Inj ection number of defective
Gate Si ze
Molded Parts parts

Screw Speed

Moisture Manufacturing Inj ection Molded

Content Parts

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 INPUTS OUTPUTS
(Factors) (Responses)
X v ariables Y v ariables

Brand:
Cheap vs Costly
Taste:
PROCESS: Scale of 1 to 10

T ime:
4 min vs 6 min

Power: Making the Bullets:

75% or 100%
Bes t Grams of unpopped
Microw ave corns
popcorn
Height:
On bottom or raised

Making m icrow ave popcorn

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