Power System Reliability

Power System Reliability--definitions

• A measure of the ability of a system, generally given as

numerical indices, to deliver power to all points of utilization
within acceptable standards and in amounts desired. Power
system reliability (comprising generation and transmission &
distribution facilities) can be described by two basic functional
attributes: adequacy and security. (Cigré definition)

• Reliability is the probability of a device or a system performing

its function adequately, for the period of time intended, under
the operating conditions intended. (IEEE PES definition)
 Power System Reliability
• An electric power system serves the basic function of supplying
customers, both large and small, with electrical energy as
economically and as reliably as possible. The reliability associated
with a power system is a measure of its ability to provide an
adequate supply of electrical energy for the period of time intended
under the operating conditions encountered.

• Modern society, because of its pattern of social and working habits,

has come to expect the power supply to be continuously available
on demand - this, however, is not physically possible in reality due
to random system failures which are generally outside the control of
power system engineers, operators and planners.
 Power System Reliability
• The probability of customers being disconnected can be reduced by
increased investment during either the planning phase, operating
phase, or both.
• Over-investment can lead to excessive operating costs which must
be reflected in the tariff structure. Consequently, the economic
constraints can be violated even though the system may be highly
reliable.
• On the other hand, under-investment can lead to the opposite
situation. It is evident therefore that the economic and reliability
constraints can be quite competitive, and this can lead to extremely
difficult managerial decisions at both the planning and operating
phases.
 Power System Reliability

The criteria and techniques first used in practical applications were

basically deterministic (rule-of-thumb) ones, for instance
• Planning generating capacity - installed capacity equals the
maximum demand plus a fixed percentage of the expected
maximum demand;
• Operating capacity - spinning capacity equals the expected load
demand plus a reserve equal to one or more largest units;
• Planning network capacity - construct a minimum number of
circuits to a load group, the minimum number being dependent
on the maximum demand of the group.
 Power System Reliability

Although the above-mentioned three and other criteria have been

developed to account for randomly occurring failures, they are
inherently deterministic. The essential weakness of these
methods is that they do not account for the
• probabilistic/stochastic nature of system behavior,
• customer load demands and/or of component failures.
Such aspects can be considered only through probabilistic criteria.
 Power System Reliability

Typical probabilistic aspects are as follows:

• Forced outage rate of generating units is known to be a function of
unit size and therefore a fixed percentage reserve cannot ensure a
consistent risk;
• Failure rates of overhead lines are functions of their lengths, design
aspects, locations and environment, etc. - therefore a consistent risk
of supply interruption cannot be ensured by constructing a minimum
number of circuits;
• All planning and operating decisions are based on load forecasting
techniques which cannot predict future loads precisely, i.e.,
uncertainties will always exist in the forecasts. This imposes statistical
factors which should be assessed probabilistically.
 Power System Reliability
 It is important to conjecture at this point on what can be done regarding
reliability assessment and why it is necessary.
 Failures of components, plant, and systems occur randomly;
 the frequency, duration and impact of failures vary from one year to the next.
 Generally all utilities record details of the events as they occur, and produce
a set of performance measures, such as:
• system availability
• estimated unsupplied energy
• number of incidents
• number of hours of interruption
• excursions beyond set voltage (and frequency) limits
 Power System Reliability

These performance measures are valuable since:

• they identify weak areas needing reinforcements and modifications
• they establish chronological trends in reliability performance
• they establish existing indices which serve as a guide for acceptable
values if future reliability assessments
• they enable previous predictions to be compared with actual
operating experience
• they monitor the response to system design changes
The important thing to note is that the above measures are statistical
indices - they are not deterministic values.
 Power System Reliability
• A system composed of large number of
components connected in series and parallel.
• Each component would have its own
reliability.
• Reliability of the system would depend on the
reliability of individual component.
– A chain’s strength would be governed by the
weakest link.
 Power System Reliability
Reliability

Adequacy Security

• Adequacy relates to the existence of sufficient facilities within the system

to satisfy the consumer load demand at all times.

• Security relates to the ability to withstand sudden disturbances

Definitions
Adequacy:
A measure of the ability of the power system to
supply the aggregate electric power and energy
requirements of the customers within components
ratings and voltage limits, taking into account
planned and unplanned outages of system
components. Adequacy measures the capability of
the power system to supply the load in all the steady
states in which the power system may exist
considering standards conditions. (Cigré definition)
Definitions
Security:
A measure of power system ability to withstand
sudden disturbances such as electric short circuits or
unanticipated losses of system components or load
conditions together with operating constraints.
Another aspect of security is system integrity, which
is the ability to maintain interconnected operation.
Integrity relates to the preservation of
interconnected system operation, or avoidance of
uncontrolled separation, in the presence of specified
severe disturbances. (Cigré definition)
 Adequacy and Security
The concept of power system reliability, i.e., the overall ability of the
system to satisfy the customer load requirements economically and
reliably, is extremely broad. For the sake of simplicity, power system
reliability can be divided into the two basic aspects of
• system adequacy, and
• system security.
Adequacy relates to the existence of sufficient facilities within the
system to satisfy customer load demands. These include the
facilities to generate power, and the associated transmission and
distribution facilities required to transport the generated energy to
the load points. Adequacy, therefore, relates to static system
conditions.
 Adequacy and Security
• Security pertains to the response of the system to the
perturbations/disturbances it is subjected to. These may include
conditions associated with local and widespread disturbances
and loss of major generation/transmission.

• Most of the techniques presently available are in the domain of

adequacy assessment.
 Adequacy and Security
Power system functional zones Hierarchical levels
Adequacy and Security
Analysis of reliability….hierarchial levels
1. Generation only (Level 1)

2. Generation + Transmission (Level 2)

3. Generation + Transmission+ Distribution (Level 3)

Analysis involving level 3 are not generally done due to enormity

of the problem.

Most of the probabilistic techniques for reliability assessment

are with respect to adequacy assessment.
Reliability Indices (1)

• SAIFI =System Average Interruption Frequency Index (int/yr. cust)= Total number of
customer interruptions / Total number of customers served

• SAIDI = System Average Interruption Duration Index (h/yr. cust) = Customer

interruption durations / Total number of customers served

• CAIFI = Customer Average Interruption Frequency Index (int./yr. cust) = Total number
of customer interruptions / Total number of customers interrupted

• CAIDI = Customer Average Interruption Duration Index (h/y. cust.) = Customer

interruption durations/ Total number of customer interruptions = SAIDI/SAIFI

• CTAIDI = Customer Total Average Interruption Duration Index (h/ y. cust)= Customer
interruption durations / Total number of customers interrupted
Reliability Indices (2)

• ENS = Energy Not Supplied = (kwh/y.) = Total energy not

supplied = UE = Unserved Energy

• AENS = Average Energy Not Supplied = (kwh/y. Cust.) = Total

energy not supplied / Total number of customers served

• LOLP = Loss of Load Probability =The probability that the total

production in system cannot meet the load demand
Reliability Indices (3)

• Protection system
– Selectability: should operate for the conditions intended and should not
for which not intended.
– Dependability: Number of correct operation devided by number of
incorrect operations

• Other Equipments, high reliability would mean

– In repeated operations – probability that the out would be within a
narrow range.
– Low variance or standard deviation of output
Generating System (HLI) Reliability Assessment

• Generating capacity reliability is defined in terms of the adequacy of the

installed generating capacity to meet the system load demand. Outages of
generating units and/or load in excess of the estimates could result in “loss
of load”, i.e., the available capacity (installed capacity - capacity on outage)
being inadequate to supply the load.
• In general, this condition requires emergency assistance from neighboring
systems and emergency operating measures such as system voltage
reduction and voluntary load curtailment.
• Depending on the shortage of the available capacity, load shedding may be
initiated as the final measure after the emergency actions.
• The conventional definition of “loss of load” includes all events resulting in
negative capacity margin or the available capacity being less than the load
 Generating System (HLI) Reliability
Assessment
• The basic methodology for evaluating generating system
reliability is to develop probability models for capacity on outage
and for load demand, and calculate the probability of loss of
load by a convolution of the two models.
• This calculation can be repeated for all the periods (e.g., weeks)
in a year considering the changes in the load demand, planned
outages of units, and any unit additions or retirements, etc
 Generating System (HLI) Reliability
Assessment
• Probabilistic Criteria and Indices
An understanding of the probabilistic criteria and indices used in
generating capacity reliability (HLI) studies is important. These
include
1. loss of load probability (LOLP)
2. loss of load expectation (LOLE)
3. loss of energy expectation (LOEE)/expected energy not supplied
(EENS)
4. frequency & duration (F&D) indices
5. energy index of reliability (EIR)
6. energy index of unreliability (EIU), and
7. system minutes (SM).
 Generating System (HLI) Reliability
Assessment
• LOLP
• This is the oldest and the most basic probabilistic index. It is defined
as the probability that the load will exceed the available generation.
Its weakness is that it defines the likelihood of encountering trouble
(loss of load) but not the severity; for the same value of LOLP, the
degree of trouble may be less than 1 MW or greater than 1000 MW
or more. Therefore it cannot recognize the degree of capacity or
energy shortage.

• This index has been superseded by one of the following expected

values in most planning applications because LOLP has less
physical significance and is difficult to interpret.
 Generating System (HLI) Reliability
Assessment
• LOLE
• This is now the most widely used probabilistic index in deciding
future generation capacity. It is generally defined as the average
number of days (or hours) on which the daily peak load is
expected to exceed the available capacity. It therefore indicates
the expected number of days (or hours) for which a load loss or
deficiency may occur. This concept implies a physical
significance not forthcoming from the LOLP, although the two
values are directly related.

• It has the same weaknesses that exist in the LOLP.

 Generating System (HLI) Reliability
Assessment
• LOEE
• This index is defined as the expected energy not supplied
(EENS) due to those occasions when the load exceeds the
available generation. It is presently less used than LOLE but is
a more appealing index since it encompasses severity of the
deficiencies as well as their likelihood. It therefore reflects risk
more truly and is likely to gain popularity as power systems
become more energy-limited due to reduced prime energy and
increased environmental controls.
 Generating System (HLI) Reliability
Assessment
• EIR and EIU
• These are directly related to LOEE which is normalized by
dividing by the total energy demanded. This basically ensures
that large and small systems can be compared on an equal
basis and chronological changes in a system can be tracked.
 Generating System (HLI) Reliability
Assessment
• Frequency & Duration (F&D) Indices
• The F&D criterion is an extension of LOLE and identifies
expected frequencies of encountering deficiencies and their
expected durations.

• It therefore contains additional physical characteristics but,

although widely documented, is not used in practice. This is due
mainly to the need for additional data and greatly increased
complexity of the analysis without having any significant effect
on the planning decisions.
 Composite System (HLII) Reliability
Assessment
Applications in power system planning

• Expansion - selection of new generation, transmission, subtransmission

configurations;
• Operation - selection of operating scenarios;
• Maintenance - scheduling of generation and transmission equipment
Basic models

• G&T Equipment : Markovian or not; Two or multi-states.


Up 
Down

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 Composite System (HLII) Reliability
Assessment
Reliability Measures (Conventional)

 System indices (sometimes appearing under different names)

• LOLP = Loss of load probability
• LOLE = Loss of load expectation (h/year)
• EPNS = Expected power not supplied (MW)
• EENS = Expected energy not supplied (MWh/year)
• LOLF = Loss of load frequency (occ./year)
• LOLD = Loss of load duration (h)
• LOLC = Loss of load cost (US$/year)
• etc.
 Load point indices
• LOLP, LOLE, etc.

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 Composite System (HLII) Reliability
Assessment
Reliability Measures (Well-Being)
 System indices
•Prob {H} = Probability of healthy state
•Prob {M} = Probability of marginal state Success
•Prob {R} = Probability of at risk state (LOLP) Healthy
•Freq {H} = Frequency of healthy state (occ./year)
•Freq {M} = Frequency of marginal state (occ./year)
•Freq {R} = Frequency of at risk state (LOLF) (occ./year) Marginal
•Dur {H} = Duration of healthy state (h)
•Dur {M} = Duration of marginal state (h)
•Dur {R} = Duration of at risk state (LOLD) (h) At Risk
 Load point indices
•Prob {H}, Freq {H}, etc.
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 Composite System (HLII) Reliability
Assessment Tools
Assessment

State Selection State Analysis (adequacy)

• Enumeration • Power flow
• Monte Carol simulation o Linear DC model
o Non-sequential o Non-linear AC model
o Sequential or chronological • Optimal power flow
o Pseudo-chronological/sequential o Linear DC model
o Non-linear AC model

33
 Distribution System Reliability
Assessment

Load Point Indices

• failure rate, 
• average outage time, r
• average annual unavailability, U = .r
• average load disconnected, L
• expected energy not supplied, E = U.L

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Distribution
DistributionSystem ReliabilityAssessment
System Reliability Assessment
Series Structure, n Components
n
Interruption frequency fs =  i [interruptions/year]
i 1
n
 i ri
Interruption duration rs = i=1 [hours/interruption]
n
 i
i=1
n
Annual downtime Us = fs rs =  i ri [hours/year]
i 1
n
 i ri
Unavailability qs = i=1
8760 35
Distribution
DistributionSystem ReliabilityAssessment
System Reliability Assessment
Parallel Structure, n (independent) Components

 n  i ri   n  1 
Interruption frequency fs = 8760        [Interruptions/year]
 i=1  8760   i=1  ri 
1
Interruption duration rs = n
[hours/interruption]
1
r
i=1 i
n
i ri 
Annual downtime Us = 8760    [hours/year]
i=1 
8760 

Us
Unavailability qs =
8760
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Distribution
DistributionSystem ReliabilityAssessment
System Reliability Assessment
System Oriented Reliability Indices, Number of Interruptions

• Weighting by number of customers

– System Average
Interruption Frequency Index :
n
 fi Ni
SAIFI = i=1
n
(interruptions/year)
tot
 Ni
i=1

fi = number of interruptions at load point i

Ni = number of customers connected to load point i
n = number of load points interrupted
ntot = total number of load points
37
Distribution
DistributionSystem ReliabilityAssessment
System Reliability Assessment
System Oriented Reliability Indices, Annual Interruption Time

• Weighting by number of customers

– System Average
Interruption Duration Index :
n n
 Ui Ni  fi ri Ni
SAIDI = i=1
n
= i=1
n
(hours/year)
tot tot
 Ni  Ni
i=1 i=1

Ui = firi = annual outage time for load point i

ri = Average outage duration for load point i

38
Distribution
DistributionSystem ReliabilityAssessment
System Reliability Assessment
System Oriented Reliability Indices, Average Interruption Duration

• Weighting by number of customers

– Customer Average Interruption Duration Index :
n
 Ui Ni
CAIDI = i=1
n
(hours/interruption)
tot
 fi Ni
i=1
n n n n
 fi Ni  Ui Ni  Ui Ni  fi ri Ni
SAIFI  CAIDI = SAIDI i=1
n tot
 i=1
n tot
= i=1
n tot
= i=1
n tot
 Ni  fi Ni  Ni  Ni
i=1 i=1 i=1 i=1

39
Distribution
DistributionSystem ReliabilityAssessment
System Reliability Assessment

System Oriented Reliability Indices, Unavailability, Energy Not Supplied

SAIDI
• Average Service Unavailability Index ASUI =
8760
n
• Energy Not Supplied ENS =  Pav(i) Ui (kWh/year)
i=1
Pav(i) = Average load connected to load point i
ENS
• Average Energy Not Supplied AENS = n (kWh/customer . year)
tot
 Ni
i=1

40
 Cost-Benefit Considerations

• COST of providing quality and continuity of service

< should be related to the >

• WORTH or BENEFIT of having that quality and continuity

 Cost-Benefit Considerations
Cost-Benefit Considerations
The basic concept of reliability cost/reliability worth evaluation is relatively simple
and can be presented by the curves of the figure shown below. These curves
show that the investment cost generally increases with higher reliability. On the
other hand, the customer costs associated with failures decrease as the reliability
increases.

Utility and customer costs

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 Modeling Considerations in Power Systems

• Component modeling
– Generator models
– Transmission line models
– Load models
• Component dependencies
• System operation representation
– Power flow models
– Operating constraints
– Policies and contracts
 Methods Used for Large Power Systems

• Contingency ranking
• Stochastic/probabilistic load flow
• State space decomposition
• Monte Carlo simulation
• Hybrid methods
 Monte Carlo Simulation

• Concept
– Imitate system behavior using random numbers
and estimate indices from data collected from
simulation.
• Types used in power systems
– Sequential
• Synchronous timing (a.k.a. chronological)
• Asynchronous timing (a.k.a. next event method)
• Hybrid (mixed timing)
– Non-sequential
 Monte Carlo Simulation
• The sequential approach simulates the occurrences of random
events through time. recognizing the statistical properties of the
various types of events.
• Typically, the time functions of load and planned generation
schedules are established for a period of a year.
• Starting at the beginning of the year, a sequence of forced
shutdown and restoration of transmission and generating
equipment is then determined based on random sampling in
accordance with the statistical characteristics of the equipment
failure processes.
• The response of the power system during equipment outages is
simulated by power flow solutions.
• Whenever a system condition violating predefined failure criteria is
encountered, the occurrence and characteristic of this failure is
recorded.
• At the end of one year of simulation, parameters describing the
‘‘observed’’ reliability of the system can be determined.
 Contingency Enumeration Approach
• The contingency enumeration approach to reliability
analysis includes the systematic selection and evaluation of
disturbances.
• The classification of each disturbance according to failure
criteria and the accumulation of reliability indices.
• Contingency enumeration techniques are structured so as
to minimize the number of disturbances that need to be
investigated in detail.
• This is achieved by testing, to the extent possible.
• Only those disturbances that are sufficiently severe to
cause trouble and sufficiently frequent to impact the risk
indices to be computed.
Contingency Enumeration Approach
Thank you