The Complete Problem Solver

THE
© 1981 b y T H E F R A N K L I N I N S T I T U T E
Published b y T H E F R A N K L I N I N S T I T U T E P R E S S S M
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
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from the publisher.
Current printing (last digit):

5 4 3 2
Printed in the United States of America
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Hayes, John R„ 1940-

The complete problem solver,
1. Problem solving. 2. Thought and thinking.

I.Title.
BF441.H33 153.4'3 81-3295
ISBN 0-89168-028-4 AACR2
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
T h i s b o o k i s t h e r e s u l t o f m a n y y e a r s ' s e a r c h i n g for a s a t i s f a c t o r y w a y t o t e a c h
a course on general p r o b l e m solving skills. By g e n e r a l p r o b l e m s o l v i n g skills I
m e a n skills that can b e u s e d b y a n y o n e i n s o l v i n g p r o b l e m s that o c c u r i n e v e r y d a y
life.
T h e i d e a t h a t I s h o u l d try t o t e a c h a p r o b l e m s o l v i n g c o u r s e a r o s e i n a c o n v e r -
sation w i t h H e r b S i m o n a n d S t e v e R o s e n b e r g i n 1 9 7 4 . T h e t h r e e o f u s d e c i d e d t h a t
if we really k n e w something useful about problem solving, we ought to be able to
t e a c h it. S t e v e a n d I , a c c e p t i n g t h e c h a l l e n g e , p u t t o g e t h e r a n i n i t i a l v e r s i o n o f t h e
c o u r s e w h i c h w e t h e n t a u g h t t o a m i x e d g r o u p o f e n g i n e e r s a n d f i n e arts s t u d e n t s
a t C a r n e g i e - M e l l o n U n i v e r s i t y . O u r first v e r s i o n h a d m a n y f a u l t s , b u t s t u d e n t r e -
s p o n s e w a s still p o s i t i v e . I w a s s u f f i c i e n t l y e n c o u r a g e d t o c o n t i n u e . T h e c o u r s e
then u n d e r w e n t a l o n g evolution as I b o r r o w e d ideas from a w i d e variety of sources
and tested t h e m in the classroom. M a n y of these ideas c a m e from p e o p l e w h o , at
one time or another, have taught the course with me:
• S t e v e n R o s e n b e r g — w h o h e l p e d m e t o start t h e w h o l e e n t e r p r i s e ,
• L i n d a F l o w e r — w h o made me see the relevance of problem solving
to the crucial skill of writing,
• L e e G r e g g — w h o encouraged me to think b i g about the course, and
• L y n n e R e d e r — w h o a d d e d her sophistication in the fields of m e m o r y
and decision making.
O t h e r ideas c a m e from p e o p l e w h o w e r e g e n e r o u s e n o u g h t o c o n t r i b u t e g u e s t
lectures. Delarese Ambrose spoke about h o w to get along in small groups; E d w a r d
Constant, about cultural influences in creativity; John Gatchnig, about recursive
methods in problem solving; Douglas Lenat, about heuristics; D a v i d Meeker,
about information retrieval; Robert N e c h e s , about listening to lectures; John P a y n e ,
about decision making; Herbert Simon, about series completion problems; and
Richard T e a r e , about problem solving in engineering.
I w o u l d like to add a special note to thanks to John P a y n e . It w a s through his
e x a m p l e and e n c o u r a g e m e n t that I a d d e d the section on d e c i s i o n m a k i n g to the
c o u r s e — a section w h i c h m a n y students have found extremely useful.
In teaching a course on p r o b l e m solving skills, it is e x t r e m e l y important to
provide students w i t h close personal supervision. T e a c h i n g p r o b l e m s o l v i n g skills
is a bit like coaching: T h e instructor n e e d s to w a t c h the students in action to be sure
that t h e y are p e r f o r m i n g t h e s k i l l s i n t h e r i g h t w a y . A s c o u r s e e n r o l l m e n t i n c r e a s e d ,
i t b e c a m e i m p o s s i b l e for m e t o g i v e t h i s s u p e r v i s i o n m y s e l f . I n s t e a d , I r e l i e d o n a
group of teaching assistants—mostly u n d e r g r a d u a t e s — w h o v o l u n t e e r e d to super-
vise groups of about 15 students in w e e k l y sections and to m e e t w e e k l y with me to
discuss section problems. T h e success of the course has d e p e n d e d v e r y h e a v i l y on
t h e efforts o f t h e t e a c h i n g a s s i s t a n t s l i s t e d h e r e :
Doug Bauman Kevin Brown

Cynthia Berkowitz Steve Ciampi
Sandra J. Bond Aaron Clevenson
O16870
Barbara Madera Clevenson Anne Lux
Dana Dunn Bill L y d e n
Suzanne Eckert Marilyn Mantei
Carole Elm John Maslany
Anna-Lena Ericsson-Neches David Meeker
Becky Freeland Ernie Prescott
A m y Gift Greg Pisocky
Richard Gorelick Susan Robinson
Mark Hanna Mark Segal
Ron Kander Lisa Thaviu
Anne Karcher Judi Vitale
Rich Kleinhample Philip Werner
Jeanne Kravanja Ellen Zoll
Jamie L e a c h
J e a n n e H a l p i n has t a u g h t the c o u r s e v e r y s u c c e s s f u l l y o n h e r o w n . B y d o i n g so,

she has d e m o n s t r a t e d the important point that the course is g e n u i n e l y "export-
able."
Finally, I want to note the very important contributions of Sandra Bond. She
has c o o r d i n a t e d the c o m p l e x m e c h a n i s m s of the c o u r s e : m a k i n g sure that lectures
got d e l i v e r e d , that g r a d i n g got d o n e , that T A ' s w i t h difficulties got l i s t e n e d to, and
t h a t h u n d r e d s o f s t u d e n t s f o u n d t h e i r w a y t o w e e k l y s e c t i o n m e e t i n g s . S'he s e r v e d
a s a t e a c h i n g a s s i s t a n t for m a n y y e a r s , c o n s i s t e n t l y r e c e i v i n g e x c e l l e n t e v a l u a t i o n s
from h e r students. In addition, she g u e s t l e c t u r e d on creativity in w o m e n . S h e has
also contributed h e a v i l y in the preparation of this book. S h e t y p e d the manuscript,
d r e w the figures, e d i t e d a n d proofread the text, a n d d i d m u c h o f the research and
w r i t i n g for t h e f i n a l c h a p t e r . I n s h o r t , a g r e a t d e a l o f t h e w o r k y o u s e e i n t h i s b o o k
is hers.
In appreciation, I dedicate this b o o k to the m a n y m e n t i o n e d a b o v e w h o h a v e
contributed to this project.
CONTENTS
Introduction i
I. PROBLEM SOLVING THEORY AND PRACTICE
One. U n d e r s t a n d i n g P r o b l e m s : T h e P r o c e s s o f R e p r e s e n t a t i o n 1
Two. S e a r c h 25
Three. P r o t o c o l A n a l y s i s 51
II. M E M O R Y AND KNOWLEDGE ACQUISITION
Four. T h e S t r u c t u r e o f H u m a n M e m o r y 71
Five. U s i n g M e m o r y E f f e c t i v e l y 93
Six. L e a r n i n g S t r a t e g i e s 113
III. D E C I S I O N MAKING
Seven. G e t t i n g the Facts Straight: M a k i n g D e c i s i o n s in A C o m p l e x

World 145
Eight. T h e L u c k o f t h e D r a w : D e a l i n g W i t h C h a n c e i n D e c i s i o n
Making 161
Nine. C o s t - B e n e f i t A n a l y s i s 183
IV. C R E A T I V I T Y AND INVENTION
Ten. C o g n i t i v e P r o c e s s e s i n C r e a t i v e A c t s 197
Eleven. H o w S o c i a l C o n d i t i o n s A f f e c t C r e a t i v i t y 217
V. A P P E N D I X 1 239
VI. A P P E N D I X 2 243
VII. I N D E X 251
INTRODUCTION
T h i s b o o k has t w o purposes. It is d e s i g n e d to p r o v i d e y o u with skills that will

make you a better p r o b l e m solver, and to give y o u up-to-date information about the
psychology of problem solving.
T h e first p u r p o s e i s c l e a r l y a p r a c t i c a l o n e , b u t I b e l i e v e t h e s e c o n d p u r p o s e i s ,
too. I t i s i m p o r t a n t for p e o p l e t o k n o w h o w t h e i r m i n d s w o r k . C e r t a i n l y for h u m a n -
istic r e a s o n s — k n o w l e d g e o f o u r h u m a n n a t u r e i s v a l u a b l e i n i t s e l f — b u t i t i s a l s o
important b e c a u s e it p r o v i d e s us with a d e g r e e of flexibility w h i c h we m i g h t not
otherwise have. If we can examine our o w n problem-solving processes with some
degree of understanding, then we have a better chance of improving them. Further,
if we have s o m e understanding of h o w p e o p l e think, we can be more effective in
h e l p i n g o t h e r s . A n y o n e w h o i s t o t e a c h , o r t o tutor, o r e v e n t o h e l p a c h i l d w i t h
h o m e w o r k , can b e n e f i t from k n o w l e d g e o f h o w h u m a n p r o b l e m - s o l v i n g p r o c e s s e s
work and h o w they can go wrong.
Early in my career as a psychologist, a student a s k e d me about my special area
of interest. I told h i m that I s t u d i e d p e o p l e ' s t h i n k i n g p r o c e s s e s . " O h , t h i n k i n g ! " he
s a i d , " I k n o w all a b o u t that. I ' m a m a t h m a j o r . " O f c o u r s e , h e d i d k n o w a l o t a b o u t
t h i n k i n g — h e k n e w a b o u t how to do it, at l e a s t in c e r t a i n c a s e s . G i v e n a m a t h
problem, he could draw on a wealth of experience to h e l p h i m find a solution. But
i f h e w e r e like m o s t p e o p l e , h e w o u l d h a v e - a - v e r y difficult t i m e articulating that
wealth o f e x p e r i e n c e ; h e k n e w h o w t o think b u t h e didn't k n o w h o w t o d e s c r i b e his
o w n t h i n k i n g . W h e n t h e y a r e f a c e d w i t h t h e i r first t e a c h i n g t a s k , w h e t h e r i n s c h o o l
or out, m a n y professionals d i s c o v e r a vast d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n their ability to do
what they do v e r y w e l l and their ability to describe w h a t they do to others.
I n this b o o k , t h e n , w e h o p e t o p r o v i d e y o u w i t h s o m e skills that w i l l h e l p y o u
t o solve p r o b l e m s , b u t w e also h o p e t o p r o v i d e y o u w i t h s o m e k n o w l e d g e that will
g i v e y o u greater insight into w h a t y o u are d o i n g and an i n c r e a s e d ability to under-
stand others.
W H A T IS A PROBLEM?
If y o u are on one side of a river and you want to get to the other side but you
don't k n o w h o w , y o u h a v e a p r o b l e m . If y o u are a s s e m b l i n g a mail-order p u r c h a s e ,
and the instructions l e a v e y o u c o m p l e t e l y baffled about h o w to " p u t tab A in slot
B , " you h a v e a p r o b l e m . If you are writing a letter and y o u just can't find the polite
w a y t o s a y , " N o , w e d o n ' t w a n t y o u t o c o m e a n d stay for a m o n t h , " y o u h a v e a
problem. W h e n e v e r there i s a gap b e t w e e n w h e r e y o u are n o w a n d w h e r e y o u w a n t
to b e , and y o u d o n ' t k n o w h o w to find a w a y to cross that g a p , y o u h a v e a p r o b l e m .
S o l v i n g a p r o b l e m m e a n s finding an appropriate w a y to cross a gap. T h e pro-
cess of finding a solution has t w o major parts: 1. R e p r e s e n t i n g the g a p — t h a t is,
u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h e n a t u r e o f t h e p r o b l e m , a n d 2 . S e a r c h i n g for a m e a n s t o c r o s s it.
REPRESENTING THE G A P
I f p e o p l e fail t o u n d e r s t a n d t h e n a t u r e o f t h e g a p , t h e y m a y w e l l s e t off i n t h e
w r o n g d i r e c t i o n t o s e a r c h for t h e s o l u t i o n . S u p p o s e y o u t o l d a f r i e n d t h a t y o u w o u l d
The C o m p l e t e Problem Solver
g i v e h i m $10,000 i f h e p u t h i s e l b o w i n h i s e a r . " E a s y , " y o u r f r i e n d s a y s ; " I ' l l j u s t

c u t off m y e l b o w a n d p u t i t i n a n y e a r y o u c h o o s e . " N o w y o u m a y q u e s t i o n y o u r
friend's v a l u e s , b u t y o u are also pretty sure that he understands the nature of the
difficulty—the g a p — t h a t the problem presents. On the other hand, if your friend
said, " E a s y , I'll s t a n d o n a c h a i r , " y o u w o u l d s u s p e c t t h a t h e d i d n ' t r e a l l y u n d e r -
stand the nature of the difficulty.
R e p r e s e n t i n g t h e g a p i s n ' t a l w a y s e a s y . I n fact, t h e m a i n d i f f i c u l t y i n m a n y
problems is just the difficulty of representing the gap. C o n s i d e r the Driver's
License Problem.
Problem 1. The Driver's License
W h e n T o m and Bill applied for their drivers' licenses, they w e r e asked their
ages. Bill, w h o was a bit of a revolutionary, said they w e r e both in their twenties and
that was all he was going to reveal to a bunch of bureaucrats. T h e clerk insisted on
more specific information so, to smooth things over, T o m a d d e d that they both had
the same birthday, and that he was four times as old as Bill was w h e n he was three
times as old as Bill was w h e n he was t w i c e as old as Bill was. At this the clerk fainted
and the two snatched up their licenses and disappeared. W h e n the clerk came to and
realized that he w o u l d have to complete his records some w a y or other he b e g a n to
do a little figuring, and before long had found out h o w old the two were. C a n you
tell, too?
A typical reaction to this p r o b l e m is to say, " W h a t ? " or b e a t a hasty retreat

explaining, " I n e v e r w a s m u c h g o o d a t p u z z l e s . " B u t the p r o b l e m really isn't v e r y
d i f f i c u l t o n c e w e f i n d a n a p p r o p r i a t e r e p r e s e n t a t i o n for it. I n C h a p t e r 1 , w e w i l l
discuss processes by w h i c h we c o m e to understand the nature of a problem; we will
s h o w that the w a y w e r e p r e s e n t the g a p can m a k e a n e n o r m o u s difference i n the
difficulty of the p r o b l e m ; and we will p r o v i d e s o m e hints on h o w to represent
problems to m a k e t h e m easier.
F I N D I N G A S O L U T I O N PATH
O n c e w e u n d e r s t a n d t h e n a t u r e o f a p r o b l e m , t h e r e a r e still m a n y r e a s o n s w h y
w e m a y h a v e d i f f i c u l t y i n f i n d i n g a s o l u t i o n t o it. T h e p r o b l e m s b e l o w i l l u s t r a t e
some of the most important reasons.
Problem 2. The Loser

A man once offended a fortune teller by laughing at her predictions and saying
that fortune telling was all nonsense. He offended her so much, in fact, that she cast
a spell on him w h i c h turned him into both a compulsive gambler and in addition a
consistent loser. That was pretty mean. We w o u l d expect the spell w o u l d shortly
have turned him into a miserable, impoverished wreck. Instead, he soon married a
wealthy b u s i n e s s w o m a n w h o took him to the casino every day, gave him money, and
smiled happily as he lost it at the roulette table. T h e y lived happily in just this way
ever after. W h y was the man's wife so happy to see him lose?
T h i s s t o r y p o s e s a p r o b l e m for m o s t o f u s w h e n w e first s e e it. I t w o u l d b e n o

p r o b l e m i f the m a n w e r e w i n n i n g m o n e y . W e k n o w right a w a y h o w t o get from
w i n n i n g m o n e y to h a p p y smiles, but to get from losing m o n e y to happy smiles is a
p r o b l e m — t h e r e is a g a p that we can't i m m e d i a t e l y cross. H o w can losing m o n e y
lead to happiness?
In trying to bridge the gap, p e o p l e propose a variety of solutions:

" P e r h a p s she is so rich that she really d o e s n ' t care a b o u t the m o n e y . "
" P e r h a p s s h e i s b e c o m i n g a n u n a n d w a n t s t o g i v e all h e r m o n e y a w a y . "
" P e r h a p s h e r c r a z y g r a n d f a t h e r left a w i l l w h i c h r e q u i r e d h e r t o l o s e all h e r
m o n e y by 21 in order to inherit a billion."
" P e r h a p s s h e is a m a s o c h i s t . "
Introduction
T h e s e solutions vary in quality. T h e solution about the w o m a n b e c o m i n g a nun

has t h e d i f f i c u l t y t h a t i t i g n o r e s h e r h u s b a n d . A s o l u t i o n w h i c h s e e m s t o u s b e t t e r
t h a n all o f t h e s e i s t h i s : W h e n p l a y i n g r o u l e t t e , t h e m a n b e t s , s a y , o n r e d a n d l o s e s ,
as his spell r e q u i r e s . T h e w o m a n , h o w e v e r , bets t w i c e as m u c h on b l a c k and w i n s .
In short, s h e has t u r n e d h e r h u s b a n d ' s misfortune into an a d v a n t a g e . H i s loss is
their gain, and so the smiles. T h e gap is crossed.
T h e p r o b l e m illustrates a very important process in p r o b l e m s o l v i n g — t h e
p r o c e s s o f i n v e n t i o n . I n m a n y p r o b l e m s , lots o f a p p r o a c h e s a r e c o n c e i v a b l e — s o m e
o f t h e m b e t t e r t h a n o t h e r s . T y p i c a l l y , a p e r s o n w i l l try s e v e r a l a p p r o a c h e s b e f o r e
hitting on a good one. If p e o p l e can't think up any approaches, then they can't solve
the p r o b l e m .
Invention is an important problem-solving process, but it isn't the only process
r e q u i r e d i n s o l v i n g p r o b l e m s . T h e r e are m a n y p r o b l e m s i n w h i c h i n v e n t i o n i s e a s y
b u t t h e p r o b l e m i s still d i f f i c u l t .
Problem 3. The Combination Lock
S u p p o s e that y o u h a v e the p r o b l e m of o p e n i n g the 10-dial c o m b i n a t i o n lock

s h o w n a b o v e . P r o p o s i n g p o s s i b l e solutions is easy. T h e dial setting s h o w n m a y be
a s o l u t i o n — a n d i t m a y not. T h e r e i s a total o f 1 0 o r 10,000,000,000 o r t e n b i l l i o n
1 0
p o s s i b l e d i a l s e t t i n g s , a n y one o f w h i c h m a y b e t h e s o l u t i o n . T h i s i s w h e r e t h e
difficulty o f the p r o b l e m l i e s — f i n d i n g the single correct c o m b i n a t i o n a m o n g ten
billion possibilities. If we tried one combination e v e r y second, w o r k i n g day and
n i g h t , i t w o u l d t a k e u s 3 1 7 y e a r s t o try t h e m a l l . S o m e p r o b l e m s , t h e n , l i k e t h e
C o m b i n a t i o n L o c k P r o b l e m , a r e d i f f i c u l t t o s o l v e b e c a u s e w e h a v e t o s e a r c h for t h e
solution a m o n g a very large n u m b e r of alternatives.
T h e f o l l o w i n g p r o b l e m is a difficult one, e v e n t h o u g h it i n v o l v e s neither inven-
tion n o r e x a m i n i n g l a r g e n u m b e r s o f a l t e r n a t i v e s .
Problem 4. The Rational Investor

Suppose that you have a choice b e t w e e n a safe investment w h i c h yields a sure
2 5 % return and a risky investment w h i c h gives you an e v e n chance of either tripling
your m o n e y or of losing it. Which investment is best?
T h e d i f f i c u l t y o f p r a c t i c a l d e c i s i o n m a k i n g d e m a n d e d b y p r o b l e m s l i k e this o n e
lies in e v a l u a t i n g the alternatives. P e o p l e are often u n r e l i a b l e w h e n m a k i n g such
evaluations. If they c h o o s e from the same alternatives on several different occa-
sions, the results m a y be q u i t e inconsistent.
W h i c h o f t h e t w o i n v e s t m e n t s i s b e s t d e p e n d s i n a c o m p l e x w a y o n t h e in-
vestor's financial circumstances. To evaluate the alternatives accurately, most peo-
ple require explicit decision procedures such as those described in Chapter 7.
S o m e p r o b l e m s are difficult b e c a u s e w e h a v e trouble r e m e m b e r i n g w h e r e w e
are o n o u r p a t h t o t h e s o l u t i o n . T r y t o s o l v e P r o b l e m # 5 b e f o r e r e a d i n g f u r t h e r .
Problem 5. Cats A m o n g Pigeons

Messrs. D o w n s , Heath, Field, Forest, and M a r s h — f i v e elderly pigeon
f a n c i e r s — w e r e worried by the depredations of marauding cats o w n e d by five not
less elderly ladies, and, hoping to get control of the cats, they married the cat
owners.
T h e scheme worked well for each of them so far as his o w n cat and pigeons were
concerned; but it was not long before each cat had claimed a victim and each fancier
had lost his favorite pigeon.
Mrs. D o w n s ' cat killed the p i g e o n o w n e d by the man w h o married the owner
of the cat w h i c h killed Mr. Marsh's pigeon. Mr. D o w n s ' pigeon was killed by Mrs.
Heath's cat. Mr. Forest's pigeon was killed by the cat o w n e d by the lady w h o
married the man w h o s e p i g e o n was killed by Mrs. F i e l d ' s cat.
Who was the owner of the pigeon killed by Mrs. Forest's cat?
(from Phillips, 1961)
U n l e s s y o u a r e a n e x p e r t i n s o l v i n g t h i s sort o f p r o b l e m , y o u m a y h a v e h a d s o m e
difficulty in k e e p i n g track of y o u r p l a c e on y o u r w a y to the solution. Y o u m a y h a v e
f o u n d y o u r s e l f a s k i n g q u e s t i o n s like, " W a s n ' t M r s . M a r s h the l a d y w h o ate the cat
that m a r r i e d M r . F o r e s t ' s p i g e o n ? — O r w a s i t t h e o t h e r w a y a r o u n d ? " B e i n g a b l e t o
r e m e m b e r y o u r p l a c e on the solution path is a critical p r o b l e m s o l v i n g skill.
C o n s i d e r P r o b l e m # £ , b u t d o n ' t c o n s i d e r i t for v e r y l o n g .
').
Problem 6. Who's Got the E n t h a l p y ?

L i q u i d water at 2 1 2 ° F and 1 atm has an internal energy (on an arbitrary basis)
of 180.02 Btu/Ib . T h e specific volume of liquid water at these conditions is 0.01672
m
fif/lbm. What is its enthalpy?
(from Smith and Van Ness, 1959)
P r o b l e m #6 is not a v e r y difficult p r o b l e m if y o u k n o w s o m e t h i n g about

t h e r m o d y n a m i c s . I f y o u d o n ' t , h o w e v e r — i f , for e x a m p l e , y o u h a v e n ' t t h e f o g g i e s t
i d e a w h a t e n t h a l p y i s — t h e n it's a n i m p o s s i b l y h a r d p r o b l e m . I p r e s e n t this p r o b -
l e m n o t t o m a k e y o u f e e l bacj, p u t t o d r a m a t i z e t h e e x t r e m e i m p o r t a n c e o f k n o w l -
e d g e i n p r o b l e m s o l v i n g . I f y o u are m i s s i n g r e l e v a n t k n o w l e d g e , a n e a s y p r o b l e m
may appear difficult or impossible. If your k n o w l e d g e of math and science is w e a k ,
the p r o b l e m s that scientists solve m a y appear m u c h harder to y o u than they really
a r e . I f t h e h u m a n i t i e s o r t h e arts a r e y o u r w e a k suit, t h e n p e o p l e w h o c a n u n d e r -
stand p h i l o s o p h y or w h o c a n interpret a m u s i c a l score m a y s e e m m a g i c a l l y intelli-
g e n t t o y o u . T h e m o r a l i s t h i s : M u c h that p a s s e s for c l e v e r n e s s o r i n n a t e q u i c k n e s s
/V
Introduction
of m i n d actually d e p e n d s on s p e c i a l i z e d k n o w l e d g e . If y o u a c q u i r e that s p e c i a l i z e d
k n o w l e d g e , y o u too m a y be a b l e to solve hard p r o b l e m s and a p p e a r c l e v e r to y o u r
less learned friends.
O R G A N I Z A T I O N O F THE B O O K
T h e six p r o b l e m s a b o v e i l l u s t r a t e six i m p o r t a n t a s p e c t s o f h u m a n p r o b l e m
solving which we will emphasize:
Problem 1: Representation
Problem 2: I n v e n t i o n
Problem 3 : S e a r c h for t h e S o l u t i o n A m o n g M a n y A l t e r n a t i v e s
Problem 4: D e c i s i o n M a k i n g
Problem 5: M e m o r y
Problem 6: K n o w l e d g e
T h e book is d i v i d e d into four sections:
Section I . Problem Solving Theory and Practice (representing problems and

s e a r c h i n g for s o l u t i o n s )
Section II. M e m o r y and K n o w l e d g e Acquisition
Section III. Decision Making
Section IV. Creativity and Invention
W h i l e t h e o r d e r i n w h i c h y o u r e a d S e c t i o n s 1 , 2 , 3 , a n d 4 i s n o t c r i t i c a l for
u n d e r s t a n d i n g , I d o r e c o m m e n d that y o u r e a d S e c t i o n 1 first for a n o v e r v i e w o f t h e
problem-solving process.
REFERENCES
Phillips, H. My Best Puzzles in Logic and Reasoning. N e w York: Dover, 1961.
S m i t h , J . M . , a n d V a n N e s s , H . C . Introduction to Chemical Engineering Thermo-

dynamics, S e c o n d E d i t i o n . N e w Y o r k : M c G r a w - H i l l , I n c . , 1 9 5 9 .
ONE.
UNDERSTANDING PROBLEMS:
THE PROCESS OF REPRESENTATION
Usually w h e n we solve a problem, we put most of our attention on the problem

a n d v e r y l i t t l e a t t e n t i o n o n o u r s e l v e s — t h a t i s , o n w h a t w e a r e doing t o s o l v e t h e
problem. If we d i d attend to our o w n actions, we m i g h t notice that t h e y often occur
in a c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s e q u e n c e :
1 . Finding the Problem: r e c o g n i z i n g t h a t t h e r e i s a p r o b l e m t o b e s o l v e d .

2 . Representing the Problem: u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h e n a t u r e o f t h e g a p t o b e
crossed.
3 . Planning the Solution: c h o o s i n g a m e t h o d for c r o s s i n g t h e g a p .
4. Carrying O u t the Plan
5 . Evaluating the Solution: a s k i n g " H o w g o o d i s t h e r e s u l t ? " o n c e t h e p l a n i s
carried out.
6 . Consolidating Gains: l e a r n i n g f r o m t h e e x p e r i e n c e o f s o l v i n g .
This s e q u e n c e of actions is illustrated in the following problem.
Action Problem
Finding the Problem I o b s e r v e Smith, w h o claims to be too poor to
r e p a y t h e $50.00 h e o w e s m e , b u y i n g r o u n d
after r o u n d o f d r i n k s for h i s f r i e n d s .
Representing the Problem I c o n c l u d e t h a t S m i t h is n o t s u f f i c i e n t l y s e -
rious a b o u t r e p a y i n g his debt.
Planning the Solution I c o n s i d e r a p o l i t e t e l e p h o n e c a l l or a n o t e
reminding Smith of his indebtedness, but de-
cide instead to ask three v e r y large friends of
m i n e to call on Smith in person.
Carrying O u t the Plan I call my friends, w h o then d e l i v e r my m e s -
sage to Smith.
Evaluating the Solution Since Smith p a i d up rapidly w i t h o u t major
b l o o d s h e d , I r e g a r d t h e p r o b l e m as satisfac-
torily solved.
2 The C o m p l e t e Problem Solver
Consolidating Gains I r e v i s e m y r u l e s for l e n d i n g m o n e y t o S m i t h

and reflect on the v a l u e of having a f e w large
friends.
In easy problems, we m a y go through these actions in order and without any

difficulties. In hard p r o b l e m s , though, we m a y h a v e to do a great deal of backtrack-
i n g . F o r e x a m p l e , w h e n w e e v a l u a t e w h a t w e h a v e d o n e , w e m a y d e c i d e that o u r
solution i s t e r r i b l e , e.g., " A s b e s t o s b r e a d will n o t s o l v e t h e b u r n e d toast p r o b l e m ! ! "
and go back to planning. Or while trying to execute a solution, we may discover
something about the problem which will lead us to represent it in an entirely n e w
w a y — " O h , n o w I s e e w h a t k i n d o f a p r o b l e m i t i s ! " R e t r a c i n g o f t h i s sort i s
characteristic of p r o b l e m s that are c a l l e d " i l l - d e f i n e d . " We w i l l discuss t h e s e in
m u c h m o r e detail later.
O u r success as p r o b l e m solvers d e p e n d s on the effectiveness with w h i c h we
c a n c a r r y o u t e a c h o f t h e s e six a c t i o n s . I n this c h a p t e r , w e w i l l e x a m i n e t h e n a t u r e
of p r o b l e m representations a n d the processes p e o p l e u s e to form them. In addition,
w e w i l l d e s c r i b e t e c h n i q u e s for i m p r o v i n g r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s s o t h a t t h e y m a k e p r o b -
lem solving easier. In the next chapter we will discuss planning, executing, evaluat-
ing, and consolidating. We will d e l a y the discussion of p r o b l e m finding until the
final s e c t i o n o f t h e b o o k b e c a u s e t h i s t o p i c i s s o c l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o t h e t o p i c o f
creativity.
H O W D O PEOPLE U N D E R S T A N D PROBLEMS?
Suppose we w e r e to spy on people as they w e r e trying to understand a n e w

problem, such as the Monster Problem below.
Monster Problem #1
T h r e e five-handed extra-terrestrial monsters w e r e holding three crystal globes.
B e c a u s e of the quantum-mechanical peculiarities of their neighborhood, both
monsters and globes come in exactly three sizes with no others permitted; small,
m e d i u m , and large. T h e medium-sized monster was holding the small globe; the
small monster was holding the large globe; and the large monster was holding the
medium-sized globe. S i n c e this situation offended their k e e n l y d e v e l o p e d sense of
symmetry, they p r o c e e d e d to transfer globes from one monster to another so that
each monster w o u l d h a v e a globe proportionate to its o w n size.
Monster etiquette complicated the solution of the problem since it requires:
1. that only one g l o b e may be transferred at a time, 2. that if a monster is holding two
globes, only the larger of the two may be transferred, and 3. that a globe may not be
transferred to a monster w h o is holding a larger globe.
By what s e q u e n c e of transfers could the monsters h a v e solved this problem?
We might see p e o p l e reading the problem over several times and pausing over
the hard parts. We m i g h t s e e t h e m d r a w i n g sketches or w r i t i n g s y m b o l s on paper,
and we might hear them mutter to themselves, something like: "Let's see . . . If a
m o n s t e r is h o l d i n g t w o g l o b e s . . . W h a t d o e s this m e a n ? . . ." If we w e r e to ask
p e o p l e t o " t h i n k a l o u d " a s t h e y w o r k e d o n the p r o b l e m , w e w o u l d find that their
reading, sketching, and muttering reflected a whirlwind of internal
activities—imaging, inferencing, decision making, and retrieving of knowledge
from m e m o r y — a c t i v i t i e s w h i c h are d i r e c t e d t o w a r d " u n d e r s t a n d i n g the p r o b l e m . "
I f w e look i n m o r e d e t a i l , w e w o u l d find that p e o p l e are s e l e c t i n g information and
i m a g i n g o b j e c t s a n d r e l a t i o n s i n t h e p r o b l e m . F o r e x a m p l e , after r e a d i n g t h e first
line of the M o n s t e r P r o b l e m , a p e r s o n m i g h t form a visual i m a g e of three b l o b s , e a c h
touching a circle. T h e imagined blobs and circles, of course, correspond to the
monsters and the g l o b e s , and touching in the image corresponds to the relation of
h o l d i n g . T h e i m a g e s u s u a l l y reflect s o m e s e l e c t i o n o f information, e.g., the b l o b s
Understanding Problems: T h e Process of Representation 3
may h a v e no h a n d s , or the circles m a y g i v e no indication that the g l o b e s are

crystaline.
To understand a p r o b l e m , then, the p r o b l e m solver creates (imagines) objects
and relations in his h e a d w h i c h correspond to objects a n d relations in the externally
presented p r o b l e m . T h e s e internal objects and relations are the p r o b l e m solver's
internal representation o f t h e p r o b l e m . S i n c e p e o p l e c r e a t e t h e m , d i f f e r e n t p e o p l e
may create different internal representations of the same p r o b l e m .
F r e q u e n t l y , p r o b l e m s o l v e r s w i l l m a k e a n external representation o f s o m e
parts o f t h e p r o b l e m . T h e y d o t h i s b y d r a w i n g s k e t c h e s a n d d i a g r a m s o r b y w r i t i n g
d o j y j c L s y m h o l s . o r e q u a t i o n s w h i c h c o r r e s p o n d t o p a r t s oFthe i n t e r n a l r e p r e s e n t a -
tion. S u c h external representations can be e n o r m o u s l y h e l p f u l in s o l v i n g p r o b l e m s .
T h e Relation of Internal and External Representations
S o m e t i m e s w e c a n s o l v e a p r o b l e m u s i n g only a n i n t e r n a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n . F o r
example, most of us c a n m u l t i p l y 17 by 23 entirely in our h e a d s and, w i t h a little
effort, g e t t h e r i g h t a n s w e r . M a n y p r o b l e m s , h o w e v e r , a r e v e r y d i f f i c u l t t o s o l v e
without the aid of an external representation. T h e Monster P r o b l e m and the
Driver's L i c e n s e P r o b l e m in the Introduction are e x a m p l e s of s u c h p r o b l e m s .
While it is possible to solve the Monster P r o b l e m entirely mentally, it is very
d i f f i c u l t t o k e e p t r a c k o f w h e r e y o u a r e i n this p r o b l e m w i t h o u t a n e x t e r n a l r e p r e -
sentation. Y o u find y o u r s e l f asking questions like, " D i d I g i v e the small g l o b e to the
big monster or didn't I ? " In the Driver's License Problem, if you don't invent and
write d o w n a g o o d a l g e b r a i c notation, y o u are v e r y l i k e l y to confuse s u c h things as
T o m ' s a g e now w i t h h i s a g e a t a n e a r l i e r t i m e .
External representations, then, are often v e r y helpful in s o l v i n g difficult p r o b -
l e m s . We s h o u l d n o t e , t h o u g h , t h a t e x t e r n a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s can't help us at all
unless we also have an internal representation of the problem. I m a g i n e t h a t we a r e
p l a y i n g c h e s s . In front of us t h e c h e s s b o a r d a n d p i e c e s p r o v i d e a v e r y useful
external representation o f the chess g a m e . B u t w h e n w e m a k e a m o v e , w e typically
try i t i n o u r h e a d s b e f o r e m a k i n g i t o n t h e b o a r d . P l a n n i n g i s d o n e i n t e r n a l l y .
Further, we couldn't m a k e m o v e s either in our heads or on the board if we didn't
h a v e a n internal representation o f h o w e a c h p i e c e m o v e s . I n short, i n t e l l i g e n t p l a y
w o u l d be i m p o s s i b l e w i t h o u t an internal representation.
In summary:
1 . A n i n t e r n a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n i s e s s e n t i a l for intelligent p r o b l e m s o l v i n g . I n t e r n a l
representations are the m e d i u m in w h i c h we think, in the s a m e w a y that words
are t h e m e d i u m i n w h i c h w e talk. W i t h o u t i n t e r n a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s , w e c a n ' t
think through the solution of a problem, just as without words we can't speak.
2 . S o m e t i m e s a n i n t e r n a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n i s s u f f i c i e n t for s o l v i n g . I f w e w e r e v e r y
skillful, w e c o u l d p l a y " b l i n d f o l d c h e s s , " that is, w e c o u l d p l a y u s i n g o n l y our
internal representation, b u t it w o u l d n ' t be easy.
3 . F o r m a n y p r o b l e m s , a n e x t e r n a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n i s very h e l p f u l . W e w i l l e x p l o r e
h o w external representations can h e l p later in this chapter.
W H A T D O W E NEED T O REPRESENT I N
AN INTERNAL REPRESENTATION?
C o n s i d e r t h e M o n s t e r P r o b l e m d i s c u s s e d p r e v i o u s l y . I f w e are t o s o l v e this
p r o b l e m , t h e r e are four p r o b l e m parts that w e n e e d t o i n c l u d e i n o u r internal
representation:
1 . The G o a l — w h e r e w e w a n t the g l o b e s t o b e w h e n w e are d o n e .

a t all a b o u t h o w t h e m o n s t e r s w e r e a r r a n g e d . Y o u m a y a l s o h a v e a d d e d s h a p e s for
the monsters such as those s h o w n in F i g u r e 1.
Figure 1. A Representation of t h e M o n s t e r P r o b l e m
Selecting Information
W h i l e y o u p r o b a b l y a d d e d s o m e d e t a i l s , y o u p r o b a b l y left o t h e r s o u t . F o r
example, your i m a g e of the p r o b l e m situation p r o b a b l y didn't contain anything
about "the quantum-mechanical peculiarities" of the monsters' neighborhood.
V e r y likely y o u r e g a r d e d this material as "just part of the c o v e r story" a n d not really
relevant t o t h e solution o f the p r o b l e m . Further, y o u m a y h a v e r e c o g n i z e d that the
n u m b e r o f m o n s t e r h a n d s i s i r r e l e v a n t a n d left t h a t o u t o f y o u r r e p r e s e n t a t i o n a s
well. R e l e v a n c e j u d g m e n t s s u c h as t h e s e are useful b e c a u s e t h e y a l l o w us to pare
our representations d o w n t o m a n a g e a b l e size.
In a study exploring relevance judgments in problem solving (Hayes, Water-
man, and Robinson, 1977), the experimenter read p r o b l e m s aloud w h i c h the sub-
jects had not heard before and asked t h e m to m a k e r e l e v a n c e j u d g m e n t s . T h e
p r o b l e m s w e r e p r e s e n t e d in small p i e c e s so that the subjects c o u l d m a k e separate
j u d g m e n t s a b o u t e a c h p i e c e . A t y p i c a l s e s s i o n for t h e " A l l s p o r t s P r o b l e m " p r o -
ceeded as follows:
Experimenter (reading problem): "I w e n t to tea."

Subject: " N o t r e l e v a n t . "
Exp "Yesterday."
Sub " R e l e v a n t — t h i s m a y b e s o m e sort o f a t i m e p r o b l e m . "
Exp "With an old friend."
Sub " M a y b e t h e ' o l d ' i s i m p o r t a n t i f t h i s i s a t i m e p r o b l e m . N o , I'll s a y
irrelevant."
Exp "Mrs. Allsports."
Sub "Relevant. Probably an important person."
Exp " S h e has three daughters: A m e l i a , Bella, and C e l i a . "
Sub " O K , n o w w e ' r e i n t o it. It's g o i n g t o b e a b o u t t h e d a u g h t e r s . R e l e v a n t . "
Exp " O n the doorstep, I met another friend."
Sub "Irrelevant."
E v e n o n first r e a d i n g , s u b j e c t s w e r e q u i t e a c c u r a t e i n t h e i r r e l e v a n c e j u d g -
ments. T h e y correctly identified m o r e than 80 p e r c e n t of the material in the text
w h i c h w a s actually relevant, w h i l e rejecting m o r e than 40 p e r c e n t of the text as
irrelevant. C l e a r l y , r e l e v a n c e j u d g m e n t s c a n h e l p u s t o focus o n t h e important parts
of the p r o b l e m a n d thus m a k e our task of b u i l d i n g a r e p r e s e n t a t i o n easier.
H o w do people make relevance judgments? T h e Hayes, Waterman, and Robin-
son s t u d y s u g g e s t s t h a t o n e v e r y i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r i s t h e p e r s o n ' s k n o w l e d g e o f
problem types. A sophisticated problem solver recognizes many problem types,
such as distance-rate-time p r o b l e m s , a g e p r o b l e m s , river-crossing p r o b l e m s , and so
on. O n c e t h e p r o b l e m s o l v e r h a s i d e n t i f i e d t h e p r o b l e m t y p e , j u d g i n g w h a t i s
r e l e v a n t for s o l u t i o n i s m u c h e a s i e r . F o r e x a m p l e , i n a n o t h e r s t u d y ( H i n s l e y , H a y e s ,
a n d S i m o n , 1 9 7 7 ) , t h e e x p e r i m e n t e r h a d p r e s e n t e d o n l y t h e first t h r e e w o r d s o f t h e
p r o b l e m , " A river s t e a m e r . . . " A t this p o i n t the subject said, "It's g o i n g t o b e one
o f t h o s e r i v e r t h i n g s w i t h u p s t r e a m , d o w n s t r e a m , a n d still w a t e r . [ S h e w a s r i g h t ]
Y o u are g o i n g to c o m p a r e times upstream and d o w n s t r e a m — o r if the t i m e is con-
stant i t w i l l b e d i s t a n c e . " B y r e c o g n i z i n g t h e p r o b l e m t y p e , t h e s u b j e c t c o u l d
p r e d i c t that any m e n t i o n of s p e e d either upstream or d o w n s t r e a m w o u l d be impor-
t a n t for s o l u t i o n , a n d t h a t t h e n a m e s o f t h e b o a t , t h e c a p t a i n , a n d t h e i r d e s t i n a t i o n
w o u l d b e irrelevant.
I f y o u w a n t t o b e q u i c k i n f i n d i n g t h e essential parts o f a p r o b l e m , k n o w l e d g e
of problem types can be a great help.
Using K n o w l e d g e to Interpret Problems
W h e n we form a p r o b l e m representation, we not o n l y a d d information and

d e l e t e information, w e also interpret i n f o r m a t i o n — t h a t is, w e u s e our k n o w l e d g e
of the language and the w o r l d to understand p r o b l e m information. I m a g i n e the
f o l l o w i n g s c e n e : A r o o m in w h i c h we find a father, a m o t h e r , a son, a n d a b a b y . T h e
f a t h e r s a y s , " P e d r o , J u a n i t a i s c r y i n g . P l e a s e c h a n g e h e r . " W e i n f e r t h a t t h e father
is talking to the b o y , b e c a u s e we k n o w P e d r o is a male n a m e and b e c a u s e the
c o m m e n t isn't an appropriate one to address to a b a b y . We infer from our knowl-
e d g e of p e o p l e ' s b e h a v i o r at various ages that it is the b a b y w h o is c r y i n g and in
n e e d of a c h a n g e , not the mother. Further, we infer that the b a b y is f e m a l e and
n a m e d Juanita, a n d that t h e family is p r o b a b l y S p a n i s h or M e x i c a n . F i n a l l y , our
k n o w l e d g e o f family life s u g g e s t s that w h e n t h e father says, " P l e a s e c h a n g e h e r , "
h e d o e s n o t m e a n , " T u r n h e r i n for a n e w m o d e l . "
E v e n a s i m p l e situation like this o n e requires us to m a k e a n u m b e r of
k n o w l e d g e - b a s e d i n f e r e n c e s i n o r d e r t o u n d e r s t a n d it. W e m a k e t h e s e i n f e r e n c e s
s o naturally a n d automatically that often w e b e l i e v e that our c o n c l u s i o n s w e r e
a c t u a l l y s p e l l e d o u t i n t h e p r o b l e m a n d that t h e y w e r e not i n f e r e n c e s a t all. F o r
e x a m p l e , i f w e w e r e t o ask s o m e o n e , " H o w d o y o u k n o w the boy's n a m e was
P e d r o ? " the r e s p o n s e m i g h t w e l l b e , " I t said s o i n the p r o b l e m . " I t didn't. T h a t was
an inference b a s e d on the p r o b l e m solver's k n o w l e d g e .
A t i m e w h e n w e b e c o m e a c u t e l y a w a r e that w e n e e d k n o w l e d g e t o interpret
p r o b l e m s i s w h e n w e d o n ' t h a v e that k n o w l e d g e . W h e n y o u r e a d t h r o u g h the
Enthalpy Problem in the introduction, you may have found yourself asking ques-
tions s u c h as, " W h a t is internal e n e r g y ? " " W h a t ' s a B T U ? " " A n d w h a t in the w o r l d
is e n t h a l p y ? " Without k n o w l e d g e of concepts and relations in thermodynamics to
b u i l d o n , w e c a n ' t r e p r e s e n t t h e p r o b l e m . W e d o n ' t u n d e r s t a n d t h e i n i t i a l state o r
the goal, and we h a v e no idea w h a t the operators m i g h t b e .
ANALOGIES A N D SCHEMAS
V e r y often, w h e n we e n c o u n t e r a p r o b l e m , we r e c o g n i z e that we h a v e seen a

s i m i l a r p r o b l e m b e f o r e . F o r e x a m p l e , s u p p o s e t h a t w h i l e y o u a r e d r i v i n g , y o u r car
begins to lose p o w e r . It will only make 30 miles per hour on l e v e l road and slows
t o a c r a w l u p h i l l s . A l s o i t h a s a t e r r i b l e t e n d e n c y t o stall w h e n t h e traffic l i g h t turns
g r e e n . T h e first t i m e t h i s h a p p e n s , y o u m a y t h i n k t h a t y o u r c a r i s a b o u t t o d i e a
ghastly death. If y o u h a v e b e e n through it before, though, y o u m a y recognize the
s y m p t o m s of a familiar p r o b l e m . Y o u r car (you h o p e ) just n e e d s a t u n e u p . W i t h luck,
n e w spark p l u g s a n d points will m a k e it healthy a n d h a p p y again.
For another example, consider the following problem. T w o ancient Egyptians,
A h m e d a n d G e o r g e , w e r e m e a s u r i n g a f i e l d o n t h e b a n k s o f t h e N i l e . S t a r t i n g from
one corner of the field, A h m e d w a l k e d 20 cubits south and G e o r g e w a l k e d 60 cubits

w e s t . H o w far a p a r t w e r e t h e y a t t h i s p o i n t ?
N o w , I'm r e a s o n a b l y sure that y o u h a v e n e v e r h e a r d this p r o b l e m b e f o r e , since
I just m a d e it u p . N e v e r t h e l e s s , y o u l i k e l y r e c o g n i z e that this is a " t r i a n g l e " p r o b -
l e m , a n d b e c a u s e y o u h a v e a t r i a n g l e p r o b l e m schema, y o u k n o w t h a t y o u s h o u l d
u s e t h e P y t h a g o r e a n t h e o r e m t o s o l v e it.
T h e r e a r e m a n y f a m i l i a r p r o b l e m s c h e m a s . F o r e x a m p l e , t h e r e a r e s c h e m a s for
distance-rate-time problems, triangle problems, interest p r o b l e m s , river-current
problems, river-crossing problems, mixture problems, age problems, and many
m o r e . A p r o b l e m s c h e m a is a p a c k a g e of information a b o u t t h e properties of a
p a r t i c u l a r p r o b l e m t y p e . A s c h e m a for t r i a n g l e p r o b l e m s , for e x a m p l e , m a y i n c l u d e
i n f o r m a t i o n that:
1 . T h e initial state w i l l s p e c i f y l e n g t h s o f s o m e o f t h e s i d e s o f a r i g h t - a n g l e t r i a n g l e ;
2. T h e goal w i l l be to find the l e n g t h of a n o t h e r s i d e ; a n d
3. T h e operator will i n v o l v e application of the P y t h a g o r e a n t h e o r e m .
T h e r e is a variety of " o p t i m i s t " story w h i c h (inadvertently) illustrates t h e im-

portance of our k n o w l e d g e of p r o b l e m schemas in r e p r e s e n t i n g p r o b l e m s .
Optimist Story 1
An optimist put a n e w kind of furnace in his house and found that it cut his
heating bills in half. D e l i g h t e d , he had another one installed, expecting that he
would cut his fuel bill to zero.
i Optimist Story 2
An optimist really likes his doctor except that every time he visits his office, he
has to wait an hour to see him. T h e n a brilliant idea strikes him. He decides that if
he takes t w o friends w i t h him to help, he should only have to wait for 20 minutes.
N o w , the p e c u l i a r t h i n g a b o u t the optimists' t h i n k i n g is not that t h e y are failing

to u s e k n o w l e d g e , b u t rather that t h e y are u s i n g the k n o w l e d g e inappropriately.
T h e r e are m a n y situations in w h i c h it is true that if o n e of s o m e t h i n g d o e s half a j o b ,
then two of them will do the w h o l e job. If one can of paint covers half of the house,
then t w o cans o u g h t to c o v e r the w h o l e h o u s e . T h e optimist's error is that he has
a p p l i e d this s c h e m a t o h e a t i n g h o u s e s , w h e r e i t i s n o t a p p r o p r i a t e .
T h e optimist in t h e s e c o n d story u s e s a s c h e m a w h i c h is p e r f e c t l y appropriate
in " w o r k " problems. If one person can do a j o b in an hour, three p e o p l e ought to
be able to do the j o b in 20 minutes. H o w e v e r , there are m a n y activities that can't
b e h a s t e n e d b y h a v i n g s e v e r a l p e o p l e c o m b i n e t h e i r effort. T h e s e i n c l u d e w a i t i n g ,
f a l l i n g off c l i f f s , a n d m a t u r i n g — I f o n e b o y r e a c h e s p u b e r t y a t 1 2 , c o u l d 1 2 b o y s
reach puberty at o n e ?
Problem s c h e m a s are an important part of the k n o w l e d g e we u s e to solve
problems. H o w e v e r , a s t h e optimist stories s h o w , w e also n e e d t o k n o w w h e n t h e
s c h e m a s a r e a p p r o p r i a t e a n d w h e n t h e y a r e not.
INDIVIDUAL DIFFERENCES IN PROBLEM REPRESENTATION
E v e n w h e n t w o p e o p l e represent the same problem, they may w e l l not repre-

sent it in the same way. A person w h o is v e r y good at filtering out irrelevant detail
may p r o d u c e a v e r y spare representation, as in F i g u r e 2.
Another person w h o is not good at filtering out irrelevant detail m a y produce
a c o m p l e x and ornate representation, as in F i g u r e 3.
T h e r e are m o r e differences b e t w e e n representations, t h o u g h , than just the
amount of detail they contain. O n e person m a y represent a p r o b l e m in visual
Initial
State
Figure 2. A Spare Representation
Figure 3 . A n O r n a t e Representation o f t h e S a m e Problem
imagery, another in s e n t e n c e s , and a third in auditory irnages. If t w o p e o p l e repre-

sent a p r o b l e m in visual images, they may w e l l not use the same images. For
e x a m p l e , i n i m a g i n i n g t h e m o n s t e r s i n t h e M o n s t e r P r o b l e m , s o m e s a w t h e m ar-
ranged horizontally, s o m e vertically, and some in a circle.
O u r skill in p r o b l e m s o l v i n g d e p e n d s in a v e r y i m p o r t a n t w a y on our store of
problem schemas. E a c h problem schema we know gives us a very valuable advan-
tage in s o l v i n g a w h o l e class of p r o b l e m s — a n advantage w h i c h m a y consist in
k n o w i n g w h a t to p a y attention to, or h o w to represent the p r o b l e m , or h o w to search
for a s o l u t i o n , o r all t h r e e . C l e a r l y t h e m o r e s c h e m a s w e k n o w , t h e b e t t e r p r e p a r e d
we are as problem solvers.
W h i l e our p r o b l e m skill d e p e n d s o n h o w m a n y s c h e m a s w e h a v e , i t also de-
p e n d s on the nature of those schemas. M c D e r m o t t and Larkin (1978) have s h o w n
that n o v i c e s in p h y s i c s are more likely to h a v e s c h e m a s that are tied to concrete
a s p e c t s o f t h e p r o b l e m situation, e.g., " s p r i n g p r o b l e m " s c h e m a s a n d " b a l a n c e
p r o b l e m " s c h e m a s , w h e r e a s experts are m o r e l i k e l y to h a v e s c h e m a s tied to abstract
p h y s i c s p r i n c i p l e s , e.g., " w o r k p r o b l e m " s c h e m a s and " m o m e n t o f inertia"
schemas.
In the same w a y , i n e x p e r i e n c e d math students are likely to use separate
s c h e m a s for t h e f o l l o w i n g p r o b l e m s :
Mr. Russo takes 3 min. less than Mr. L l o y d to pack a case w h e n each works
alone. O n e day, after Mr. Russo spent 6 min. in packing a case, the boss called him
away, and Mr. L l o y d finished packing in 4 more minutes. H o w many minutes w o u l d

it take Mr. Russo alone to pack a case?
O n e v e g e t a b l e oil contains 6% saturated fats and a second contains 2 6 % satu-

rated fats. In making a salad dressing h o w many ounces of the second may be added
to 10 oz. of the first if the percent of saturated fats is not to e x c e e d 1 6 % ?
T h e y w i l l u s e a " w o r k p r o b l e m " s c h e m a for t h e first a n d a " m i x t u r e p r o b l e m "

s c h e m a for t h e s e c o n d . M o r e e x p e r i e n c e d m a t h s t u d e n t s w o u l d i n c l u d e b o t h o f
these problems in a "linear e q u a t i o n s " schema.
Several years ago, I did some studies of the imagery p e o p l e use to solve
elementary, math p r o b l e m s (Hayes, 1973). W h e n I g a v e p e o p l e long-division prob-
lems to do in their h e a d s , I h e a r d my subjects do a lot of talking to t h e m s e l v e s :
"Two-seventy-three into nine-forty-one, is two, and t w o times two-seventy-three
is . . ." " A h a ! " I said to myself. " A u d i t o r y i m a g e s are important h e r e . " W h a t really
surprised me t h o u g h w a s the b e h a v i o r of subjects recruited from the faculty of the
modern languages department. T h e s e subjects w e r e p e o p l e w h o w e r e born in
E u r o p e b u t h a d b e e n i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s for m a n y y e a r s a n d s p o k e e x c e l l e n t
English. T h e s e subjects did a lot of talking, too, b u t in F r e n c h , Spanish, Italian,
Polish, or L a t v i a n — w h a t e v e r language they spoke w h e n t h e y originally learned
division. O n e p e r s o n told me that he d i d e l e m e n t a r y mathematics in Catalan, his
first language, and more advanced mathematics in Spanish, the language he used
i n his later s c h o o l i n g . A p p a r e n t l y m a n y p e o p l e u s e auditory i m a g e r y i n s o l v i n g
arithmetic p r o b l e m s . In particular they u s e the sound of the l a n g u a g e in w h i c h they
originally l e a r n e d arithmetic.
Visual imagery w a s also frequently used by p e o p l e solving arithmetic prob-
lems. W h i l e d o i n g p r o b l e m s in their heads, subjects reported visual images of the
digits of t h e a n s w e r a n d of marks i n d i c a t i n g b o r r o w i n g or c a n c e l l a t i o n .
In one experiment, I presented subjects with the card s h o w n in F i g u r e 4, and
asked them to a d d the n u m b e r s in their heads. I p u r p o s e l y did not l e a v e any space
o n t h e c a r d for t h e m t o w r i t e t h e i r a n s w e r s , b u t t h e n , s i n c e t h e y w e r e d o i n g t h e
p r o b l e m i n t h e i r h e a d s , t h e y d i d n ' t n e e d a n y s p a c e t o w r i t e t h e a n s w e r . I n fact, 1 2
of the 16 subjects c o m p l a i n e d that there w a s no p l a c e to write the a n s w e r . T w o of
589
+ 734
Figure 4. Problem Used in H a y e s ' Mental M a t h Experiment
N o t e that t h e s p a c e b e l o w t h e p r o b l e m ( w h e r e o n e w o u l d o r d i n a r i l y w r i t e t h e a n s w e r
if the p r o b l e m w e r e a w r i t t e n one) has b e e n e l i m i n a t e d .
t h e s u b j e c t s p r o v i d e d i n t e r e s t i n g s o l u t i o n s t o this d i f f i c u l t y . O n e s a i d that s h e
s u d d e n l y r e a l i z e d t h a t t h e r e w a s n o r e a s o n t h a t s h e c o u l d n ' t w r i t e t h e a n s w e r above
the problem. T h e other imagined a p i e c e of paper scotchtaped to the bottom of the
card.
My most interesting subject was one w h o had very restricted vision and who,
b e t w e e n fourth and twelfth grade, h a d r e l i e d entirely on Braille. W h e n I ques-
tioned him about the imagery he u s e d in doing arithmetic, he asked if I wanted to
k n o w a b o u t the " p r i n t " i m a g e s , the Braille i m a g e s , or the colors. In my b e s t psy-
c h o l o g i s t f a s h i o n , I m a i n t a i n e d m y u p r i g h t p o s t u r e a n d s a i d , " T e l l m e a b o u t all o f
that."
In d o i n g m e n t a l arithmetic, this subject c o u l d i m a g e n u m b e r s in the familiar
f o r m o f n u m e r a l s a s B r a i l l e p a t t e r n s , o r a s b a r s o f c o l o r . E a c h d i g i t h a d its o w n
u n i q u e c o l o r , a s d i d t h e d a y s o f t h e w e e k ( s e e T a b l e 1). H e c o u l d r e p r e s e n t a p p o i n t -
m e n t t i m e s b y a l a r g e p a t c h o f c o l o r for t h e d a y , w i t h a s m a l l p a t c h i n t h e c e n t e r for
t h e h o u r . T h u s , T u e s d a y a t 3:00 w a s r e p r e s e n t e d b y a l a r g e p a t c h o f a q u a w i t h a
small patch of p i n k in t h e center.
Another subject, w h o learned her arithmetic in H o n g K o n g on an abacus,
continually m o v e d her fingers w h i l e solving arithmetic problems. As Hatano,
Miyako, and Binks (1977) h a v e shown, subjects w h o use the abacus to do arithmetic
h a v e difficulty d o i n g m e n t a l arithmetic if t h e y are p r e v e n t e d from u s i n g their
fingers.
We h a v e o b s e r v e d that p e o p l e use v e r y diverse forms of representation e v e n
w h e n t h e y are solving s i m p l e problems. N u m b e r s m a y be r e p r e s e n t e d as the sound
of words in one's native language. T h e y m a y be represented as visual images of
print forms, Braille patterns, or colors. A n d they m a y be r e p r e s e n t e d as finger
m o v e m e n t s . M o s t of our subjects u s e d t w o or more of the forms. T h u s , w h e n they
are representing a p r o b l e m , p e o p l e appear to h a v e considerable c h o i c e in h o w they
r e p r e s e n t it. T h i s c h o i c e i s i m p o r t a n t b e c a u s e t h e f o r m o f r e p r e s e n t a t i o n t h a t s u b -
jects c h o o s e can m a k e a b i g difference in the difficulty t h e y h a v e in solving prob-
lems, and in the success they have in generalizing the solutions.
T a b l e 1 . O n e Subject's C o l o r Associations
Numbers D a y s of the W e e k Months
0 = black M o n d a y = dark green January = greenish w h i t e

1 = white Tuesday = greenish white February = redish yellow
2 = y e l l o w (with W e d n e s d a y = red orange M a r c h = dark b r o w n i s h red
some orange) Thursday = light red April = celery green
3 = pink orange M a y = light red orange
4 = blue Friday = yellow (like T h u r s d a y )
5 = yellow Saturday = b r o w n June = green (lighter than
(paler than 2) Sunday = greenish white, Monday)
6 = dark green b u t w h i t e r than T u e s d a y July = greener than April
7 = orange pink August = red orange
8 = dark b r o w n (lighter than W e d n e s d a y )
9 = y e l l o w (paler September = orange with
t h a n 5) some red
October = relatively pure
white
N o v e m b e r = dark green, but
not as dark as M o n d a y
D e c e m b e r = darker than
September
EXTERNAL REPRESENTATIONS
I n m a n y c a s e s , a n e x t e r n a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n i s v e r y h e l p f u l for s o l v i n g p r o b l e m s .
D r a w i n g a sketch, jotting d o w n lists, w r i t i n g out e q u a t i o n s , and m a k i n g diagrams
can h e l p us to r e m e m b e r information a n d to notice n e w relations in the p r o b l e m .
C o n s i d e r t h e f o l l o w i n g rate p r o b l e m :
A car can average 20 mph up to Pike's Peak and 60 mph back down the same
road. What is the average s p e e d for the whole trip?
S o m e p e o p l e will find this p r o b l e m e a s y e n o u g h t o s o l v e i n their h e a d s . O t h e r s

feel m u c h more comfortable with pencil and p a p e r — w r i t i n g d o w n relations as they
o c c u r t o t h e m a n d not t r y i n g t o j u g g l e all t h e facts i n t h e i r h e a d s a t o n c e . T h e s c r a t c h
sheet of such a person m i g h t look like this:
total d i s t a n c e
(1; average rate =
total t i m e
(2) d i s t a n c e up = d i s t a n c e d o w n = X
(3) total d i s t a n c e = 2X
... . distance
(4) t i m e =
rate
20 m p h 60 m p h
X X
(6) total time = — + —
20 60
M s 2X 2X 20 • 60 • 2 X
(7) a v e r a g e r a t e = = =
X^ X_ 6 0 X + 2 0 X 80X
20 60 20 • 60
2 0 - 6 0 - 2 2400
(o) = = = 30 mph
80 80
C l e a r l y this external representation is an e n o r m o u s aid to m e m o r y . T h e p r o b -
l e m s o l v e r c a n c o m p u t e total t i m e i n l i n e s 4 t h r o u g h 6 w i t h o u t h a v i n g t o r e m e m b e r
total d i s t a n c e . I n c o m p u t i n g a v e r a g e r a t e i n l i n e s 7 a n d 8 , h e c a n a p p l y e a c h
algebraic step w i t h o u t h a v i n g to r e m e m b e r the effects of p r e v i o u s steps. W o r k i n g
w i t h o u t s u c h a n e x t e r n a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n w o u l d b e v e r y d i f f i c u l t for m o s t p e o p l e .
Other kinds of external representation can also be v e r y useful m e m o r y aids. F o r
example, matrix r e p r e s e n t a t i o n is v e r y useful in s o l v i n g identification p r o b l e m s
s u c h a s this o n e :
D i c k e n s , Einstein, F r e u d , and Kant are professors of E n g l i s h , Physics, Psy-
chology, and Philosophy (though not necessarily respectively).
1. Dickens and F r e u d w e r e in the audience w h e n the psychologist delivered
his first lecture.
2. Both Einstein and the philosopher w e r e friends of the physicist.
3. T h e philosopher has attended lectures by both Kant and Dickens.
4. Dickens has never heard of Freud.
Match the professors to their fields.
O u r task i s t o m a t c h t h e p r o f e s s o r s t o t h e i r f i e l d s . T o d o t h i s , w e c o n s t r u c t a
matrix a s s h o w n i n F i g u r e 5 . N o w , r e a d i n g s e n t e n c e 1 , w e c o n c l u d e t h a t t h e p s y -
English Physics Psychology Philosophy
Dickens
Einstein
Freud
Kant
After first Figure step: 5. A Matrix for t h e D i c k e n s , Einstein, Freud, and Kant P r o b l e m
chologist is neither D i c k e n s nor Freud, so we put X's (indicating combinations
r u l e d out) i n t w o Ebnl o g cl ikssh a s s h o w P
n hiyns itchse t o p m a tPr isxy cohf oFliogguyr e 6 . I n t hPeh isleocsoonpdh yl i n e ,
we learn that E i n s t e i n is neither the p h i l o s o p h e r nor the physicist, and in the third
lD
i ni ec ,k et hnas t t h e p h i l o s o p h e r i s n e i t h e r K a n t n o r D i c k e n sX, s o w e c a n fill i n f o u r m o r e
Einstein
Freud X
Kant
After second step:
Dickens X
X
Einstein X X
Freud
X
Kant X
After third step:
Dickens X
X
Einstein X X
Freud X X X o
Kant X
Figure 6. Steps for Solving t h e D i c k e n s , Einstein, Freud, and Kant Problem

X's, as s h o w n in the m i d d l e matrix of F i g u r e 6. N o w that l e a v e s o n l y F r e u d w h o

could be the philosopher, so we put an 0 in the b l o c k corresponding to F r e u d and
p h i l o s o p h y , a n d X o u t t h e o t h e r a l t e r n a t i v e f i e l d s for F r e u d ( s e e r e m a i n i n g m a t r i x ,
F i g u r e 6). P r o c e e d i n g i n t h i s w a y ( t h o u g h y o u m a y h a v e s o m e d i f f i c u l t y w i t h t h e
last f e w s t e p s ) , y o u c a n i d e n t i f y t h e f i e l d s o f all o f t h e p r o f e s s o r s .
T h e matrix, like the notations in the p r e v i o u s p r o b l e m , p r o v i d e s us w i t h a great
deal of h e l p in r e m e m b e r i n g the results we h a v e obtained in previous steps. With-
out such aids, some p r o b l e m s w o u l d be difficult or i m p o s s i b l e to solve.
W h i l e external representations are clearly v e r y useful as m e m o r y aids, t h e y can
h e l p in other w a y s as w e l l . As P a i g e and S i m o n (1966) h a v e s h o w n , s o m e relations
in problems are easier to discover w h e n we u s e a diagram than w h e n we don't.
T h i n k a b o u t t h e f o l l o w i n g p r o b l e m for a m o m e n t a n d t h e n e x a m i n e F i g u r e 7 .
A car radiator contains exactly one liter of a 9 0 % alcohol-water mixture. What

quantity of water will change the liter to an 8 0 % alcohol mixture?
Figure 7. Representation of t h e Radiator Problem (After Paige and Simon)
F o u r r e l a t i o n s w h i c h a r e i m p o r t a n t for s o l v i n g t h e p r o b l e m c a n b e r e a d d i r e c t l y
from t h e d i a g r a m . T h e s e a r e :
ALCOHOL BEFORE = ALCOHOL AFTER
WATER AFTER = WATER BEFORE + WATER ADDED
TOTAL VOLUME BEFORE = ALCOHOL BEFORE + WATER BEFORE

TOTAL VOLUME AFTER = ALCOHOL AFTER + WATER AFTER
I f a n y o f t h e s e r e l a t i o n s h a d n ' t o c c u r r e d t o y o u after r e a d i n g t h e p r o b l e m text, t h e

diagram c o u l d h a v e g i v e n y o u a v e r y useful hint.
N o w , s o l v e this p r o b l e m b e f o r e y o u p r o c e e d .
A board was sawed into two pieces. O n e p i e c e was two-thirds as long as the whole
board and was e x c e e d e d in length by the second p i e c e by 4 ft. H o w long was the
board before it was cut?
D i d you notice the contradictory nature of the p r o b l e m ? Paige and Simon

f o u n d that p e o p l e w h o d r a w a diagram to r e p r e s e n t this p r o b l e m c a n u s e the
d i a g r a m t o d i s c o v e r its c o n t r a d i c t o r y n a t u r e . P e o p l e w h o d o n o t d r a w a d i a g r a m are
likely to miss the contradiction and some may be quite happy to accept an answer
o f - 1 2 f e e t for t h e l e n g t h o f t h e b o a r d !
E x t e r n a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s , t h e n , c a n b e e n o r m o u s l y u s e f u l . Y o u s h o u l d always
consider u s i n g t h e m w h e n y o u are solving difficult p r o b l e m s .
CHANGE A N D GROWTH I N REPRESENTATIONS
An important fact a b o u t a representation is that it can c h a n g e or d e v e l o p as we

w o r k o n t h e p r o b l e m . O f t e n e n o u g h , w h e n w e start t o s o l v e a p r o b l e m , t h e r e a r e
s o m e important parts that w e are v a g u e a b o u t o r w h i c h h a v e e s c a p e d u s entirely.
W e m a y n o t f u l l y u n d e r s t a n d t h e w h o l e p r o b l e m u n t i l w e h a v e w o r k e d o n i t for
s o m e t i m e . W h e n p e o p l e start t o s o l v e t h e M o n s t e r P r o b l e m , t h e y u s u a l l y h a v e a
pretty c l e a r u n d e r s t a n d i n g of t h e initial state, the goal, a n d t h e operator. O f t e n
t h o u g h , t h e y d o n ' t really u n d e r s t a n d the restrictions. As t h e y try to m a k e a m o v e ,
we m a y h e a r t h e m mutter, " I f t w o g l o b e s are h o l d i n g t h e s a m e monster . . . N o .
T h a t ' s n o t i t . " T h e y m a y n o t a c h i e v e full u n d e r s t a n d i n g u n t i l t h e y h a v e b e e n
c o r r e c t e d s e v e r a l t i m e s for m a k i n g i l l e g a l m o v e s .
I m a g i n e that y o u are faced with the f o l l o w i n g matchstick p r o b l e m :
G i v e n 16 matches arranged in five squares like this
m o v e just three sticks to form four squares.
W h e n y o u first r e a d t h e p r o b l e m , i t i s r e a s o n a b l e t o s u s p e c t t h a t y o u r r e p r e s e n -
t a t i o n o f t h e g o a l w i l l b e v e r y s t r a i g h t f o r w a r d : y o u a r e l o o k i n g for any a r r a n g e m e n t
of four squares, such as t h e s e :
1 1 1, I 1 1, e t c .
I f y o u r first s e v e r a l s o l u t i o n a t t e m p t s fail, t h o u g h , y o u m a y r e e x a m i n e t h e p r o b l e m
statement to s e e if there is a n y t h i n g y o u o v e r l o o k e d . Y o u m a y n o t i c e that 16
matches w i l l m a k e exactly four squares only if e a c h match is u s e d in one and only
one square. A n y arrangement in w h i c h a match serves as the side of t w o different
Understanding Problems: The Process of Representation 75
squares w o n ' t work. T h i s observation allows y o u to c h a n g e your representation of

t h e g o a l . N o w y o u a r e s e a r c h i n g for a r r a n g e m e n t s l i k e t h i s :
or t h i s :
This n e w , m o r e p r e c i s e representation of the goal can h e l p y o u to avoid false

l e a d s in y o u r s e a r c h for a s o l u t i o n .
I observed another e x a m p l e of c h a n g e in representation firsthand w h e n a
friend c h a l l e n g e d m e t o s o l v e t h e F o u r K n i g h t s P r o b l e m . T h i s p r o b l e m i n v o l v e s a
3 x 3 chess b o a r d a n d four c h e s s p i e c e s — t w o w h i t e knights and t w o b l a c k
knights, arranged as s h o w n in F i g u r e 8. T h e goal is to i n t e r c h a n g e the positions of
the w h i t e a n d b l a c k k n i g h t s u s i n g o n l y l e g a l k n i g h t m o v e s . F o r t h o s e w h o a r e n ' t
familiar w i t h c h e s s , F i g u r e 9 s h o w s t h e l e g a l k n i g h t m o v e s . T h e k n i g h t c a n m o v e
one space straight a h e a d a n d o n e s p a c e d i a g o n a l l y forward.
Figure 8. Original Position in t h e Four Knights Problem

Figure 9. Eight Possible Knight M o v e s
Unfortunately, I had never seen the Four Knights Problem before. H o w e v e r ,

o n g e n e r a l p r i n c i p l e s , I s e t u p s o m e g u i d e l i n e s i n s e a r c h i n g for a s o l u t i o n . F i r s t , I
d e c i d e d to work with an external representation of the p r o b l e m to h e l p me k e e p my
p l a c e . I u s e d a 3 x 3 m a t r i x l i k e t h a t s h o w n in F i g u r e 8, on w h i c h I p e n c i l l e d t h e
current position of e a c h p i e c e a n d e r a s e d the p r e v i o u s position. S e c o n d , I k n e w that
if I m o v e d p i e c e s at random, I w o u l d h a v e trouble r e m e m b e r i n g w h i c h paths I had
a l r e a d y e x p l o r e d a n d w h i c h I h a d y e t to explore. F u r t h e r , I k n e w that e v e n w h e n
I r e a c h e d the goal, I m i g h t forget the path that h a d l e d t h e r e . * F o r t h e s e reasons,
I m a d e m o v e s w h i c h w o u l d b e e a s y t o r e m e m b e r : I m o v e d all f o u r p i e c e s o n e s t e p
c l o c k w i s e , g i v i n g me the arrangement s h o w n in F i g u r e 10.
T h i s r e s u l t s u g g e s t e d a b s o l u t e l y n o t h i n g t o m e , s o I m o v e d all p i e c e s o n e m o r e
step c l o c k w i s e to y i e l d the formation s h o w n in F i g u r e 1 1 .
A t t h i s p o i n t , I r e c o g n i z e d t h a t I h a d r o t a t e d t h e o r i g i n a l p a t t e r n b y 90° a n d t h a t
if I just r e p e a t e d w h a t I had d o n e up until n o w , the p r o b l e m w o u l d be solved!
Earlier I had thought small. In my representation, there was just one o p e r a t o r — t h e
single knight's m o v e . N o w , b e c a u s e of the result I o b s e r v e d in the external repre-
sentation, I a d d e d a larger operator to my r e p r e s e n t a t i o n — a m a c r o - o p e r a t o r —
consisting of eight knights' moves. U s i n g the macro-operator, I could solve the
p r o b l e m in just t w o m o v e s rather than 16.
* (Question: C o u l d I have used a better external representation?)

Figure 1 1 . Four Knights Problem Rotated T w o Steps C l o c k w i s e From O r i g i n a l Position

V e r y often, then, we c h a n g e our representation of a p r o b l e m w h i l e we are

s o l v i n g it. I n m a n y c a s e s , t h e s e c h a n g e s a p p e a r t o b e i m p r o v e m e n t s w h i c h m a k e t h e
p r o b l e m easier to solve. If y o u are h a v i n g difficulty in s o l v i n g a p r o b l e m , it m a k e s
sense to consider c h a n g i n g your problem representation, A useful w a y to proceed,
as P o l y a (1945) has s u g g e s t e d , is to r e e x a m i n e the p r o b l e m statement v e r y carefully.
P e r h a p s w e can m a k e a n inference w h i c h w i l l h e l p u s r e p r e s e n t the goal m o r e
accurately as in the Matchstick Problem. Or perhaps we can form a macro-operator
a s i n t h e F o u r K n i g h t s P r o b l e m . C a r e f u l e x a m i n a t i o n o f e a c h o f t h e four p r o b l e m
p a r t s — i n i t i a l state, goal, operators, and r e s t r i c t i o n s — c a n s u g g e s t w a y s to i m p r o v e
our representation.
REPRESENTATIONS MAKE A DIFFERENCE
A p r o b l e m m a y b e d i f f i c u l t o r i m p o s s i b l e for u s t o s o l v e i n o n e r e p r e s e n t a t i o n ,
but m u c h easier in another. For example, consider the N i n e Dots Problem.
The Nine Dots Problem
Without raising your pencil from the paper, draw four straight lines so that each
of the dots above is touched by at least one of the lines.
I f y o u d o n ' t a l r e a d y k n o w t h e p r o b l e m , try t o s o l v e i t b e f o r e p r o c e e d i n g .
S o m e p e o p l e h a v e trouble b e c a u s e they h a v e a d d e d a restriction to their repre-
sentation w h i c h m a k e s the p r o b l e m unsolvable.* T h e restriction is that the lines
should n e v e r extend b e y o n d the square defined by the nine dots. T y p i c a l solution
a t t e m p t s for s u b j e c t s a d d i n g t h i s r e s t r i c t i o n a r e s h o w n i n F i g u r e 1 2 .
T h e first r e p r e s e n t a t i o n g a v e t r o u b l e b e c a u s e i t a d d e d a n e x t r a r e s t r i c t i o n t o t h e
p r o b l e m . A n y r e p r e s e n t a t i o n that a d d s or d e l e t e s significant things from the initial
state, f r o m t h e g o a l , f r o m t h e o p e r a t o r s , o r f r o m t h e r e s t r i c t i o n s i s v e r y l i k e l y t o g i v e
u s s e r i o u s t r o u b l e . W e c a n a v o i d this t r o u b l e t o s o m e e x t e n t b y c h e c k i n g o u r
representation v e r y carefully against the p r o b l e m statement b e f o r e we l a u n c h into
any massive solution attempt.
E v e n w h e n our representation of a problem is essentially correct, though, there
are other w a y s to form a correct representation. S o m e of t h e m are easier to use than
others. C o n s i d e r the following river-current problem.
A River-Current Problem
You are standing by the side of a river which is flowing past you at the rate of
5 mph. You spot a raft 1 mi. upstream on which there are two boys h e l p l e s s l y adrift.
T h e n you spot the b o y s ' parents 1 mi. downstream paddling upstream to save them.
You know that in still water the parents can paddle at the rate of 4 mph. H o w long
will it be before the parents reach the b o y s ?
* See Wickelgren (1974) for an alternative interpretation.

O n e v e r y natural w a y to r e p r e s e n t the p r o b l e m is to take the point of v i e w of

the o b s e r v e r s t a n d i n g b y t h e s i d e o f t h e r i v e r . ( T h e p r o b l e m r e a l l y s e t s y o u u p t o
d o this.) W e c a n c o m p u t e t h e s p e e d o f t h e b o y s w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e o b s e r v e r ( 5 m p h
downstream) and the s p e e d of the parents with r e s p e c t to the observer (5 m p h - 4
mph =1 m p h downstream). T h e difference in s p e e d b e t w e e n the b o y s and their
parents i s four m i l e s p e r h o u r . T h u s , i t s h o u l d t a k e h a l f a n h o u r t o c o v e r t h e
two-mile distance.
An alternate and s i m p l e r w a y to r e p r e s e n t the p r o b l e m is to take the point of
v i e w o f t h e b o y s o n t h e raft. I f w e t a k e t h i s p o i n t o f v i e w , w e c a n i g n o r e t h e r a t e a t
w h i c h the boys a n d their parents are m o v i n g w i t h r e s p e c t to t h e observer. ( T h e
o b s e r v e r r e a l l y i s i r r e l e v a n t i n t h i s p r o b l e m . ) I n a d d i t i o n , w e c a n i g n o r e t h e rate o f
the current, since it is affecting t h e b o y s a n d their parents e q u a l l y . (If this s e e m s
strange t o y o u , r e m e m b e r that w e r o u t i n e l y i g n o r e m o t i o n s t h a t a f f e c t b o t h p a r t i e s
e q u a l l y s u c h a s t h e r o t a t i o n o f t h e e a r t h o n its axis a n d t h e m o t i o n o f t h e e a r t h
a r o u n d t h e sun.) A l l t h a t i s l e f t i s t h e r a t e a t w h i c h t h e p a r e n t s a r e p a d d l i n g — f o u r
miles per hour. T h u s , t h e n e w r e p r e s e n t a t i o n a l l o w s u s t o find t h e rate o f a p p r o a c h
in one step, w h i l e the old representation r e q u i r e d three.
WORKING BACKWARDS
W h e n y o u h a v e t r o u b l e s o l v i n g a p r o b l e m head-on, it is often useful to try to

work backwards. W o r k i n g b a c k w a r d s i n v o l v e s a simple c h a n g e in representa-
t i o n — o r point o f v i e w — i n w h i c h y o u r n e w starting p l a c e i s the original goal, and
vice versa. W o r k i n g b a c k w a r d s can be helpful b e c a u s e p r o b l e m s are often easier to
solve in o n e direction than another. To s e e w h y this is so, c o n s i d e r F i g u r e 14.
S u p p o s e y o u r p r o b l e m is to g e t from X to Y. Starting from X, t h e r e are five
e q u a l l y p r o m i s i n g p a t h s t o e x p l o r e i n s e a r c h i n g for t h e s o l u t i o n . S t a r t i n g f r o m Y ,
h o w e v e r , there is j u s t o n e path t o X . In this case, t h e n , s o l v i n g b a c k w a r d s is easier
than s o l v i n g f o r w a r d s .
H e r e is a p r o b l e m w h i c h illustrates the usefulness of w o r k i n g b a c k w a r d s : Y o u
are g i v e n f o u r b l a c k c a r d s a n d f o u r r e d c a r d s f r o m a n o r d i n a r y d e c k . Y o u h a v e t o
arrange t h e m i n a s t a c k , f a c e d o w n , s o t h a t y o u c a n d e a l t h e m o u t a s f o l l o w s :
1. You p l a c e the top card on the table, face up. It is black.

2. You place the next card (now on the top of the deck) on the bottom of the
deck.
3. You p l a c e the next card on the table, face up. It is red.
4. You place the next card on the bottom of the deck.
Y o u p r o c e e d i n t h i s w a y — p u t t i n g a l t e r n a t e c a r d s o n t h e t a b l e — u n t i l all t h e c a r d s
are d e a l t out. W h e n y o u h a v e f i n i s h e d , t h e p a t t e r n o f c a r d s o n t h e t a b l e s h o u l d l o o k
like F i g u r e 1 5 .
T h i s i s a m o d e r a t e l y d i f f i c u l t p r o b l e m i f y o u try t o s o l v e i t f o r w a r d s . T h e r e a r e
lots o f p o s s i b l e a r r a n g e m e n t s o f t h e c a r d s (70 o f t h e m ) , a n d o n l y o n e o f t h e a r r a n g e -
m e n t s i s r i g h t ! I f y o u w o r k b a c k w a r d s f r o m t h e final r e s u l t , h o w e v e r , t h e r e i s j u s t
one p a t h t o t h e c o r r e c t a r r a n g e m e n t . T o w o r k b a c k w a r d s , y o u h a v e t o r e v e r s e t h e
original o r d e r o f o p e r a t i o n s . P u t t h e t o p c a r d o n t h e t a b l e , p u t t h e t o p c a r d o n t h e
b o t t o m , etc., b e c o m e s : P u t a c a r d f r o m t h e t a b l e o n t o p , p u t t h e b o t t o m c a r d o n t o p ,
etc. W h e n y o u a p p l y t h i s s e q u e n c e o f o p e r a t i o n s t o t h e c a r d s l a i d o u t o n t h e t a b l e
as s h o w n a b o v e , y o u e n d up w i t h a stack of cards arranged in the correct order.
Working b a c k w a r d s is useful in m a n y practical situations. F o r e x a m p l e , sup-
p o s e that y o u w e r e w r i t i n g a p o s i t i o n p a p e r t o p e r s u a d e t h e m a n a g e m e n t o f y o u r
Figure 1 2 . Typical Solution Attempts for the N i n e D o t s P r o b l e m
company to accept your pet idea. Y o u might work forwards by writing a paper in
w h i c h y o u p r e s e n t all t h o s e d e t a i l s a n d c o m p u t a t i o n s t h a t y o u f i n d s o f a s c i n a t i n g
a n d f i r i n g i t off t o m a n a g e m e n t . O r y o u m i g h t w o r k b a c k w a r d s b y s a y i n g t o y o u r s e l f ,
" N o w h o l d on. W h a t I'm trying to do is to c o n v i n c e m a n a g e m e n t . If they're g o i n g
t o b e c o n v i n c e d , w h a t h a s t o h a p p e n ? I'll h a v e t o m e e t t h e i r o b j e c t i o n s . N o w w h a t
are those objections l i k e l y t o b e ? " B y w o r k i n g b a c k w a r d s — b y starting w i t h y o u r
g o a l — y o u are more likely to write a convincing paper.
HYPOTHETICAL REASONING
C o n s i d e r this p r o b l e m :
Truthtellers and Liars

You are visiting a strange country in w h i c h there are just two kinds of
p e o p l e — t r u t h t e l l e r s and liars. Truthtellers always tell the truth and liars always lie.
You hail the first two p e o p l e you m e e t and say, "Are you truthtellers or liars?" T h e
first person mumbles something you can't hear. T h e second says, " H e says he is a
truthteller. He is a truthteller and so am I." C a n you trust the directions that these
two may g i v e y o u ?
A g o o d w a y to s o l v e this p r o b l e m is to p r o p o s e h y p o t h e s e s . F o r e x a m p l e , y o u
m i g h t s a y , " S u p p o s e t h e first g u y w a s a liar. W h a t w o u l d h e h a v e s a i d t h e n ? " T h i s
i s a h y p o t h e s i s b e c a u s e , for t h e m o m e n t , y o u a r e p u r p o s e l y a s s u m i n g s o m e t h i n g
Figure 1 3 . Solution o f the N i n e D o t s Problem

C W H — M
Figure 1 4 . A G o o d Problem for W o r k i n g B a c k w a r d s
that w a s n ' t s t a t e d i n t h e p r o b l e m — t h a t i s , t h a t t h e first m a n w a s a liar. N o w y o u

w o r k o u t t h e c o n s e q u e n c e s o f t h i s h y p o t h e s i s . " I f t h e first m a n w a s a liar, h e m u s t
h a v e l i e d a b o u t h i m s e l f a n d s a i d t h a t h e w a s a t r u t h t e l l e r . " N o w y o u try t h e a l t e r -
native h y p o t h e s i s : " S u p p o s e he w a s a truthteller." T h e c o n s e q u e n c e of this hy-
p o t h e s i s i s t h a t t h e first m a n w o u l d h a v e t o t e l l t h e t r u t h a b o u t h i m s e l f a n d s a y t h a t
he w a s a truthteller. T h e critical d i s c o v e r y that y o u can m a k e by trying t h e s e
h y p o t h e s e s i s t h a t w h e t h e r t h e first m a n w a s a t r u t h t e l l e r o r a liar, h e m u s t h a v e said
that h e w a s a t r u t h t e l l e r . T h e s e c o n d m a n , t h e n , m u s t h a v e b e e n a t r u t h t e l l e r , a n d
s o w a s t h e first m a n s i n c e t h e s e c o n d m a n s a i d so.
This solution m e t h o d is called hypothetical reasoning. It i n v o l v e s a d d i n g to the
problem representation by making hypotheses and then w o r k i n g out the conse-
quences of these hypotheses to learn more about the problem.
Hypothetical reasoning is useful in a v e r y w i d e variety of practical situations.
For example, s u p p o s e that a c o m p a n y m a n a g e r is trying to d e c i d e w h e t h e r to rent
or to b u y n e w office space. S h e m i g h t consider a variety of h y p o t h e s e s in m a k i n g
her d e c i s i o n , e.g.,
" S u p p o s e w e u s e i t for m o r e t h a n t w o y e a r s — t h e n i t w i l l b e c h e a p e r t o b u y . "
Or
" S u p p o s e t h e r e i s a r e c e s s i o n a n d w e h a v e t o c u t o u r staff. T h e n w e w o u l d w a n t
t o b e a b l e t o g e t o u t fast, s o r e n t i n g w o u l d b e b e t t e r . "
We will discuss ways to evaluate these hypotheses in the chapters on decision

making.
ILL-DEFINED PROBLEMS
Many of the practical problems we encounter e v e r y day are ill-defined ones.

T h a t is, t h e y a r e p r o b l e m s t h a t w e c a n ' t s o l v e u n l e s s w e t a k e a c t i o n t o d e f i n e t h e m
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
B B B B B B B B
Figure 1 5 . Final Position in t h e Black/Red C a r d Problem

b e t t e r . T h e r e a r e t w o sorts o f a c t i o n s w e m a y h a v e t o t a k e : w e m a y h a v e t o m a k e
gap-filling decisions and we m a y h a v e to j u m p into the p r o b l e m before we can fully
u n d e r s t a n d it. H e r e i s a n e x a m p l e o f a p r o b l e m t h a t r e q u i r e s g a p - f i l l i n g d e c i s i o n s .
J u s t a s y o u a r e a b o u t t o l e a v e y o u r h o u s e for C h r i s t m a s s h o p p i n g , y o u r s i s t e r
r u s h e s u p t o y o u a n d s a y s , " I h a v e n ' t h a d t i m e t o g e t a n y t h i n g for M o t h e r . W o u l d
y o u m i n d g e t t i n g s o m e t h i n g for h e r — O h , j u s t a n y t h i n g n i c e — f o r a b o u t 2 0
d o l l a r s — p l e e e s e ? " Y o u r sister has s o l v e d h e r ill-defined p r o b l e m b y m a k i n g i t
y o u r ill-defined p r o b l e m . T o s o l v e this p r o b l e m , y o u w i l l h a v e t o m a k e s o m e
decisions. W o u l d your mother prefer clothes? Books? Records? Suppose you decide
o n r e c o r d s . Y o u still h a v e m a n y d e c i s i o n s t o m a k e . I s s h e r e a l l y t i r e d o f L i b e r a c e ?
W i l l h e r p u n k r o c k p h a s e l a s t ? W h e n y o u f i n a l l y c h o o s e a gift, y o u r d e c i s i o n s w i l l
h a v e contributed a great deal to the definition of this ill-defined p r o b l e m .
I t i s e a s y e n o u g h t o c r e a t e a n i l l - d e f i n e d p r o b l e m . I f y o u sit d o w n a t y o u r l o c a l
lunch counter and order "a milk shake, please, any flavor," you will have presented
t h e c o u n t e r p e o p l e w i t h a n i l l - d e f i n e d p r o b l e m . T h e y m a y r e f u s e t o a c c e p t it,
s a y i n g , " I ' m sorry, w e c a n ' t h e l p y o u u n l e s s y o u c h o o s e some f l a v o r . " O r t h e y m a y
accept the problem enthusiastically, reveling in the creative freedom you have
p r o v i d e d t h e m , a n d m a n u f a c t u r e for y o u y o u r first h o t p a s t r a m i m i l k s h a k e .
S i n c e e a c h p r o b l e m s o l v e r m a y m a k e d i f f e r e n t " g a p - f i l l i n g " d e c i s i o n s i n solv-
ing m e J a l l T r f W a result, arrive at a different solution.
T h e s e solutions m a y differ c o n s i d e r a b l y in quality d e p e n d i n g on the decisions the
p r o b l e m s o l v e r has m a d e . O u r skill i n s o l v i n g i l l - d e f i n e d p r o b l e m s , t h e n , d e p e n d s
in an important w a y on our ability to make good gap-filling decisions.
T h e second action we may h a v e to take to define an ill-defined problem is to
s j u m p i n t o t h e p r o b l e m b e f o r e w e f u l l y u n d e r s t a n d it. V e r y o f t e n t h e r e a l n a t u r e o f
a p r o b l e m i s h i d d e n f r o m u s u n t i l w e a c t u a l l y t r y t o s o l v e it. F o r e x a m p l e , s u p p o s e
w e h a v e t h e t a s k o f w r i t i n g a m a g a z i n e a r t i c l e for t e n - y e a r - o l d s a b o u t a b o r t i o n . T h e
real nature o f this p r o b l e m p r o b a b l y w o n ' t b e a p p a r e n t t o u s until w e b e g i n writing.
T h e n a multitude of difficulties will leap out at us. Will they k n o w w h a t the w o r d
" f e t u s " m e a n s ? H o w can the question about w h e n a fetus b e c o m e s a h u m a n be
e x p l a i n e d ? C a n t h e y understand the p r o b l e m s that l e a d a w o m a n to h a v e an
abortion?
O f t e n w i t h p r o b l e m s s u c h a s this one, w e can't fully define the p r o b l e m until
w e a r e n e a r l y f i n i s h e d s o l v i n g it.
R e a l - w o r l d p r o b l e m s are often ill-defined. F o r e x a m p l e , m a n y o f the p r o b l e m s
that architects face are ill-defined. T h e architect's c l i e n t m a y desire a b u i l d i n g w i t h
a certain a m o u n t of floor s p a c e at a s p e c i f i e d cost b u t m a y l e a v e m o s t of the other
d e c i s i o n s a b o u t t h e b u i l d i n g ' s d e s i g n — i t s f l o o r p l a n , its a p p e a r a n c e , e t c . — u p t o
the architect. H o w w e l l architects m a k e these gap-filling decisions determines in
large m e a s u r e h o w g o o d t h e y are as architects. Similarly, professional p r o b l e m s
f a c e d b y w r i t e r s , p a i n t e r s , c o m p u t e r p r o g r a m m e r s , c o m p o s e r s , l a w y e r s , etc., are
v e r y often i l l - d e f i n e d o n e s . T o s o l v e such p r o b l e m s successfully, w e m u s t b e p r e -
pared to m a k e gap-filling decisions and to j u m p into the p r o b l e m s before we under-
stand them.
CONCLUSION
S o m e p r o b l e m s are m u c h easier to solve in one representation than another. If

y o u are h a v i n g difficulty s o l v i n g a p r o b l e m , consider c h a n g i n g t h e representation.
First c h e c k to be sure your representation is correct. T h e n consider c h a n g i n g y o u r
point of view: Consider hypothetical reasoning or visual imagery; consider working
b a c k w a r d s , m a k i n g a gap-filling d e c i s i o n , c h a n g i n g straight lines into circles —
anything that m a y y i e l d a representation that is easier to w o r k with. Y o u m a y not
find o n e , b u t i f y o u a r e a l r e a d y h a v i n g d i f f i c u l t y i n s o l v i n g t h e p r o b l e m , y o u h a v e
relatively little to lose.
Summary
1. Internal representations are the m e d i u m of our thought w h e n we think about a

problem.
2. O u r representation of a p r o b l e m must i n c l u d e a representation of the goal, and
m a y a l s o i n c l u d e r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s o f a n i n i t i a l state, o p e r a t o r s , a n d r e s t r i c t i o n s .
3. An internal representation is not a c o p y of an external situation. P e o p l e are v e r y
active w h e n they form representations: T h e y add information, d e l e t e informa-
tion as irrelevant, a n d interpret information. T h e internal r e p r e s e n t a t i o n is v e r y
different from the external p r o b l e m situation.
4. K n o w l e d g e of l a n g u a g e a n d k n o w l e d g e of the w o r l d are b o t h important in inter-
preting p r o b l e m information. P r o b l e m schemas are an e s p e c i a l l y important part
o f our w o r l d k n o w l e d g e for i n t e r p r e t i n g p r o b l e m i n f o r m a t i o n .
5. T h e r e are large differences in the w a y different p e o p l e r e p r e s e n t the same
i n f o r m a t i o n — s o m e m a y u s e a u d i t o r y i m a g e r y ; o t h e r s , v i s u a l i m a g e r y ; still
others, s e n t e n c e s , a n d so on.
6. External representations can provide considerable aid in p r o b l e m solving. In
d i f f i c u l t p r o b l e m s , w e s h o u l d always c o n s i d e r u s i n g e x t e r n a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s .
7. T h e s e differences in representation can make an important difference in the
difficulty o f the p r o b l e m . W h e n p r o b l e m solvers e n c o u n t e r difficulty, t h e y
s h o u l d c o n s i d e r s e a r c h i n g for a n e w p r o b l e m r e p r e s e n t a t i o n .
REFERENCES
Hatano, G., M i y a k o , Y., a n d B i n k s , M . G . " P e r f o r m a n c e o f E x p e r t A b a c u s O p e r a -

t o r s . " Cognition, 5, 5 7 - 7 1 , 1 9 7 7 .
H a y e s , J.R. " O n t h e F u n c t i o n o f V i s u a l I m a g e r y i n E l e m e n t a r y M a t h e m a t i c s . " I n

Visual Information Processing, e d i t e d b y W . C h a s e . N e w Y o r k : A c a d e m i c P r e s s ,
Inc., 1 9 7 3 .
H a y e s , J.R., W a t e r m a n , D . A . , a n d R o b i n s o n , C . S . " I d e n t i f y i n g t h e R e l e v a n t A s p e c t s
of a P r o b l e m T e x t . " Cognitive Science, 1 ( 3 ) , 2 9 7 - 3 1 3 , 1 9 7 7 .
H i n s l e y , D . A . , H a y e s , J.R., a n d S i m o n , H . A . " F r o m W o r d s t o E q u a t i o n s : M e a n i n g
a n d R e p r e s e n t a t i o n in A l g e b r a W o r d P r o b l e m s . " In Cognitive Processes in Com-
prehension, e d i t e d b y P . C a r p e n t e r a n d M . Just. H i l l s d a l e , N J : L a w r e n c e E r l -
baum, 1977.
M c D e r m o t t , J.R., a n d L a r k i n , J . H . " R e p r e s e n t i n g T e s t b o o k P h y s i c s P r o b l e m s . "

Proceedings of the S e c o n d National Conference of the Canadian Society of C o m -
putational Studies of I n t e l l i g e n c e , T o r o n t o , 1978.
Paige, J.M., and S i m o n , H.A. " C o g n i t i v e Processes in Solving A l g e b r a W o r d Prob-

l e m s . " In Problem Solving: Research, Method and Theory, e d i t e d by B. K l e i n -
muntz. N e w York: John W i l e y & Sons, Inc., 1966.
P o l y a , G. How to Solve It, S e c o n d E d i t i o n . P r i n c e t o n , N J : P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y

Press, 1957.
W i c k e l g r e n , W . A . How to Solve Problems. S a n F r a n c i s c o : W . H . F r e e m a n &. C o . ,

1974.
TWO
SEARCH
O n c e p e o p l e h a v e arrived at a crude understanding of a p r o b l e m — a prelimi-

n a r y r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f its g o a l , o p e r a t o r s , e t c . — t h e y c a n l a u n c h i n t o ^ s e a r c h f o r t h e
s o l u t i o n . I n t h i s c h a p t e r , w e w i l l d e s c r i b e t h a t s e a r c h p r o c e s s i n its v a r i o u s f o r m s
and provide some practical guidelines w h i c h can h e l p y o u in your o w n solution
searches.
A s a m e t a p h o r for t h e p r o b l e m s o l v e r ' s s e a r c h for s o l u t i o n , w e i m a g i n e a p e r s o n
s e a r c h i n g t h r o u g h a m a z e . T h e e n t r a n c e t o t h e m a z e i s t h e i n i t i a l state o f t h e
p r o b l e m a n d its e x i t i s t h e g o a l . T h e paths i n t h e m a z e , i n c l u d i n g all its b y w a y s a n d
blind alleys, c o r r e s p o n d ' " ' J ^ J ^ , _ p r o b l e m ^ s p a c e — t h a t i s , t o all t h e s e q u e n c e s o f
:
moves available to the p r o b l e m solver.

A factor w h i c h h a s a n i m p o r t a n t e f f e c t o n t h e d i f f i c u l t y o f a m a z e i s its s i z e .
F i g u r e 1 s h o w s six " t r e e " m a z e s w h i c h v a r y i n b r a n c h i n g , l e n g t h , a n d s i z e . A tree
maze i s o n e w i t h n o l o o p s . T h e size o f a m a z e i s t h e total n u m b e r o f d i f f e r e n t p a t h s
from lop"T6"b6rT6m7TRe m a z e s i n t h e u p p e r p a r t o f t h e f i g u r e b r a n c h t w i c e a t e a c h
choice point, w h i l e those in the l o w e r part b r a n c h three times. T h i s difference in
b r a n c h i n g d o e s n ' t m a k e v e r y m u c h d i f f e r e n c e i n s i z e i f t h e m a z e i s short. I f t h e
maze is long, h o w e v e r , it m a k e s an e n o r m o u s difference. N o t i c e that m a z e 6 is m o r e
than 5 0 t i m e s a s b i g a s m a z e 5 . *
Familiar p r o b l e m s differ a great deal in size. T h e R i v e r C r o s s i n g P r o b l e m in
t h e last c h a p t e r h a s a v e r y s m a l l p r o b l e m s p a c e , w h i l e t h e C o m b i n a t i o n L o c k
Problem in the Introduction has a h u g e one. N e w e l l and S i m o n (1972) estimate that
t h e s i z e o f t h e p r o b l e m s p a c e for a t y p i c a l c h e s s g a m e i s 1 0 . ( T h e y a s s u m e a g a m e
1 2 0
of 40 moves with branching of 20 alternatives per move.) It will h e l p you to under-

stand j u s t h o w l a r g e a n u m b e r 1 0 is if y o u r e c o g n i z e that the e s t i m a t e d n u m b e r
1 2 0
of atoms in the u n i v e r s e is o n l y 1 0 . 8 0
VARIETIES OF SEARCH
W h i l e most p e o p l e are v a g u e l y familiar w i t h "trial a n d e r r o r " search, f e w can

d e s c r i b e o t h e r s e a r c h m e t h o d s . I n fact, t h e r e a r e a g r e a t m a n y s e a r c h m e t h o d s . I n
this c h a p t e r , w e w i l l d e s c r i b e f o u r g e n e r a l s e a r c h m e t h o d s :
* If B is the degree of branching and L is length, then
size = B L
25
Figure 1. Six T r e e M a z e s
MAZE 1
branching = 2
length = 1
size = 2 1
= 2
MAZE 2
branching = 3
length = 1
size = 3 1
= 3
Search
branching = 2
length = 3
size = 2 3
= 8
MAZE 4
branching = 3
length = 3
size = 3 3
= 27
MAZE 5
branching = 2
l e n g t h = 10
size = 2 1 0
= 1,024
1. Trial and Error

2. Proximity Methods
3. Fractionation Methods
4. Knowledge-based Methods
U n d e r s t a n d i n g t h e s e s t r a t e g i e s a n d t h e i r s t r e n g t h s a n d w e a k n e s s e s i s e s s e n t i a l for
choosing good problem solving procedures.
TRIAL-AND-ERROR SEARCH
T h e d e f i n i n g characteristic of trial-and-error search is that the searchers either

don't h a v e or don't u s e information that indicates to t h e m that a n y path is m o r e
l i k e l y to l e a d to the goal than any other path. In a m a z e , trial-and-error searchers
n e v e r k n o w that t h e y are on the right path until t h e y o p e n the last door and find
themselves outside.
T r i a l - a n d - e r r o r s e a r c h c o m e s i n t w o f o r m s — blind a n d systematic. I n b l i n d
search, the searchers p i c k paths to explore blindly, without considering w h e t h e r
they h a v e already e x p l o r e d the path. In systematic search, the searchers k e e p track
of the paths w h i c h they have already explored and choose to explore only unex-
p l o r e d paths. B e c a u s e this m e t h o d avoids m u l t i p l e s e a r c h e s , systematic search is
twice a s e f f i c i e n t o n t h e a v e r a g e a s b l i n d s e a r c h .
A D r a m a t i c Example
S u p p o s e that y o u h a v e 50 eggs in a b a g b a l a n c e d on your head. O n e of the eggs

i s b r o w n a n d all t h e r e s t a r e w h i t e . J u s t a s y o u a r e c r o s s i n g a d e e p c h a s m b y
b a l a n c i n g on a fallen log, y o u hear a c o m m a n d i n g v o i c e say, " S t o p w h e r e y o u are
and s h o w m e the b r o w n e g g ! " S i n c e y o u h a v e n o idea w h a t this maniac m a y do, y o u
d e c i d e to pacify him. Y o u reach into the b a g with your one free h a n d and pull out
a n e g g . It's w h i t e ! W h a t d o y o u d o n o w ? I f y o u p u t t h e w h i t e e g g s b a c k w i t h t h e
o t h e r s a n d k e e p t r y i n g , y o u w i l l b e d o i n g r e l a t i v e l y i n e f f i c i e n t blind s e a r c h . O n t h e
a v e r a g e , it w i l l take y o u 50 tries to find the b r o w n e g g a n d m a y take m u c h longer.
H o w e v e r , if y o u mark the eggs y o u h a v e already e x a m i n e d in the only w a y you can,
b y t o s s i n g t h e m i n t o t h e c h a s m , y o u w i l l b e d o i n g a r e l a t i v e l y e f f i c i e n t systematic
search. On the a v e r a g e , it will take y o u only 25 tries to find the b r o w n e g g , a n d it
w i l l n e v e r take m o r e than 50. S i n c e a little reflection s u g g e s t s h o w truly d e m e n t e d
t h i s p e r s o n m u s t b e , y o u d e c i d e t o s a c r i f i c e y o u r e g g s a n d g o for t h e q u i c k e r
systematic search.
T r i a l - a n d - e r r o r s e a r c h c a n b e v e r y u s e f u l for f i n d i n g o n e ' s w a y i n s m a l l m a z e s
a n d for s o l v i n g p r o b l e m s w i t h s m a l l p r o b l e m s p a c e s . I n t h e R i v e r C r o s s i n g P r o b l e m
i n C h a p t e r I , i t i s e a s y t o s e a r c h t h r o u g h all p o s s i b l e p a t h s t o f i n d t h e s o l u t i o n .
H o w e v e r , as the size of the p r o b l e m space increases, the m e t h o d b e c o m e s less and
l e s s u s e f u l . T r i a l a n d e r r o r i s a r e a s o n a b l y c o m f o r t a b l e s t r a t e g y for o p e n i n g a c o m -
bination l o c k w i t h o n e or e v e n t w o dials. W i t h t h r e e dials (1,000 paths), it gets a b i t
b o r i n g . W i t h f i v e d i a l s (100,000 p a t h s ) , w e h a v e t o b e p r e t t y d e s p e r a t e t o u s e it, a n d
with 10 dials, as we pointed out in the Introduction, it is essentially useless unless
y o u h a v e a spare 3 1 7 years to invest.
S u p p o s e y o u w e r e p a s s i n g t h r o u g h Pittsburgh, a n d y o u w a n t e d t o call y o u r
f r i e n d , B i l l M i l l e r . W h e n y o u l o o k i n t h e p h o n e b o o k , y o u f i n d t h a t t h e r e are 180
W i l l i a m M i l l e r s l i s t e d . Y o u c o u l d c a l l t h e m o n e after a n o t h e r u n t i l y o u f o u n d t h e
r i g h t o n e , b u t i t w o u l d b e far m o r e s e n s i b l e t o try a n o t h e r s t r a t e g y . Y o u c o u l d try
Search 31
t o r e m e m b e r h i s m i d d l e i n i t i a l o r h i s a d d r e s s . O r y o u c o u l d try t o r e a c h a m u t u a l
friend w h o m i g h t h a v e his n u m b e r .
T h e m o r a l h e r e i s v e r y c l e a r . T r i a l - a n d - e r r o r s e a r c h i s not e f f i c i e n t i n l a r g e
p r o b l e m s . I f y o u find y o u r s e l f d o i n g t r i a l - a n d - e r r o r s e a r c h i n a l a r g e p r o b l e m , y o u
should almost certainly stop and use a better m e t h o d .
S o m e t i m e s (alas!) w e d o n ' t h a v e a c h o i c e . T r i a l a n d e r r o r m a y t r u l y b e t h e o n l y
m e t h o d available. I f so, y o u s h o u l d c o n s i d e r v e r y carefully w h e t h e r s o l v i n g the
problem is worth the cost of the search. It may well not b e !
PROXIMITY METHODS
Proximity search m e t h o d s are in a s e n s e just o n e step a h e a d of trial-and-error

search. In proximity search, the searcher looks exactly o n e step ahead, w h i l e in
trial-and-error s e a r c h , t h e s e a r c h e r d o e s n ' t l o o k a h e a d a t a l l . T h i s o n e - s t e p differ-
ence, h o w e v e r , makes an enormous difference in the effectiveness of the methods.
T h e t w o p r o x i m i t y m e t h o d s w e w i l l d i s c u s s are " h i l l c l i m b i n g " a n d " m e a n s -
ends analysis." In b o t h of t h e s e m e t h o d s the basic q u e s t i o n is, " W h a t next step can
rtake that w i l l b r i n g m e c l o s e r to t h e g o a l ? " N e i t h e r m e t h o d l o o k s b e y o n d t h a t o n e
step to see w h a t difficulties lie ahead.
The Hill C l i m b i n g M e t h o d -y~-
S u p p o s e t h a t y o u a r e l o s t a t n i g h t i n a forest. Y o u c a n ' t s e e a t h i n g . Y o u r e a s o n
that i f y o u w e r e o n t h e t o p o f a h i l l y o u m i g h t b e a b l e t o s p o t t h e l i g h t o f a h o u s e
or a campfire. C a n y o u do any better than trial-and-error search to find the top of a
h i l l ? I n fact, y o u c a n d o m u c h b e t t e r ! T h e h i l l - c l i m b i n g m e t h o d c a n g r e a t l y r e d u c e
the time y o u require to reach your goal. T h e m e t h o d works like this:
J. Y o u p u t o u t a foot to t a k e a s t e p .
2. If the step is u p , y o u take it and repeat the procedure.
3. If the step is d o w n , y o u p u l l y o u r foot back, take a quarter turn c l o c k w i s e , a n d
try a g a i n .
4 . I f y o u h a v e t u r n e d a full c i r c l e a n d h a v e f o u n d n o t h i n g b u t s t e p s d o w n , y o u s t o p
because y o u k n o w y o u must be on the top of a hill.
H a v i n g c o m p l e t e d t h e h i l l - c l i m b i n g p r o c e d u r e , y o u c a n n o w l o o k a r o u n d for s i g n s
of civilization.
H o w e f f i c i e n t i s t h e h i l l - c l i m b i n g m e t h o d c o m p a r e d t o trial a n d e r r o r ? V e r y
e f f i c i e n t i n h i l l y c o u n t r y . F o r e x a m p l e , i f w e w e r e s e a r c h i n g for a h i l l t o p i n a n a r e a
1,000 s t e p s s q u a r e , h i l l c l i m b i n g w o u l d b e a b o u t 1,000 t i m e s m o r e e f f i c i e n t t h a n
trial-and-error s e a r c h . T h e r e l a t i v e e f f i c i e n c y o f h i l l c l i m b i n g w o u l d b e e v e n
g r e a t e r for l a r g e r s e a r c h a r e a s .
D e s p i t e its e f f i c i e n c y , t h e h i l l - c l i m b i n g m e t h o d h a s s o m e i n h e r e n t w e a k -
n e s s e s . T o i l l u s t r a t e , l e t ' s p i c k u p t h e e x a m p l e w h e r e w e l e f t off. H a v i n g r e a c h e d
t h e t o p o f t h e h i l l , y o u l o o k a r o u n d a n d s e e n o t h i n g . T i r e d a n d d i s c o u r a g e d , y o u fall
a s l e e p o n l y t o w a k e i n full m o r n i n g l i g h t . Y o u l o o k a n d f i n d t o y o u r s u r p r i s e t h a t
your hill i s e n t i r e l y s u r r o u n d e d b y m u c h taller hills. N o w y o u can u n d e r s t a n d w h y
y o u d i d n ' t s e e a n y s i g n s o f c i v i l i z a t i o n l a s t n i g h t . Y o u w a n t e d t o b e o n a tall h i l l , b u t
the hill-climbing m e t h o d can't tell o n e hill from another. It took y o u to the top of
the nearest hill and that h a p p e n e d to be a small one. If y o u w a n t to be sure to find
the h i g h e s t hill, t h e n y o u w i l l h a v e t o s u p p l e m e n t the hill c l i m b i n g m e t h o d w i t h
some other m e t h o d that can c h o o s e a m o n g hills or u s e a different m e t h o d entirely.
32 T h e C o m p l e t e Problem Solver
Figure 2. Hill C l i m b e r W i t h V e r y Few Hills
A n o t h e r p r o b l e m w i t h h i l l c l i m b i n g i s t h a t i t w o r k s w e l l o n l y w h e n m o s t o f its
s e a r c h a r e a s l o p e s . I f its s e a r c h a r e a i s a l m o s t e n t i r e l y flat w i t h a n o c c a s i o n a l v e r y
s t e e p p e a k (see F i g u r e 2), t h e hill c l i m b e r is v e r y little b e t t e r off than t h e trial-and-
error searcher.
T h e hill-climbing method is important b e c a u s e it can be u s e d and is used to
s o l v e a w i d e r a n g e o f p r o b l e m s . H e r e are t w o e v e r y d a y e x a m p l e s :
1. Y o u are d r i v i n g in a strange city a n d w a n t to find the d o w n t o w n area. At e a c h

c o r n e r y o u s t o p a n d l o o k i n all d i r e c t i o n s . Y o u p r o c e e d i n t h e d i r e c t i o n t h a t
appears busiest.
In this e x a m p l e , the c h o i c e of streets corresponds to the c h o i c e of steps, and the

a m o u n t o f c o m m o t i o n o n t h e s t r e e t s c o r r e s p o n d s t o t h e h e i g h t o f t h e s t e p s . Just a s
the m e t h o d may take y o u to a low hilltop w h e n y o u w a n t the tallest one, it may also
take y o u to a local s h o p p i n g center w h e n y o u w a n t d o w n t o w n .
2 . A s m a l l c h i l d h a s r e a d j u s t e d y o u r T V s e t s o t h a t i t s h o w s all sorts o f i n t e r e s t i n g
d i a g o n a l s t r i p e s . T o r e t u r n t h e s e t t o its m o r e t r a d i t i o n a l a d j u s t m e n t , y o u b e g i n
to t w i d d l e k n o b s . T h a t is, y o u c h o o s e a k n o b a n d turn it a little bit w h i l e w a t c h i n g
the screen. If the pictures gets better, y o u do it again. If it gets worse, you m o v e
it a little in t h e o p p o s i t e direction. W h e n it gets w o r s e w h e n y o u m o v e in e i t h e r
direction, y o u l e a v e it w h e r e it is, h a v i n g found the " r i g h t " adjustment. T h e n y o u
d o t h e s a m e for t h e o t h e r k n o b s — t h a t i s , y o u " h i l l c l i m b " t o b e s t a d j u s t m e n t
with each knob. Since the adjustment of some knobs influences the adjustment
o f o t h e r s , y o u m a y h a v e t o r e d o s o m e o f t h e k n o b s s e v e r a l t i m e s b e f o r e y o u are
a b l e to get a d e c e n t picture.
After Hill C l i m b i n g , W h a t ?
I n t h e p r o b l e m s w e u s e d t o i l l u s t r a t e t h e h i l l - c l i m b i n g m e t h o d , t h e i n i t i a l state
a n d t h e goal differed in a single d i m e n s i o n , e.g., h e i g h t , d e n s i t y of b u s i n e s s , picture
Search 33
q u a l i t y . F u r t h e r , i n e a c h o f t h e s e p r o b l e m s , t h e o p e r a t o r s (if t h e r e w a s m o r e t h a n
o n e ) all w o r k e d i n e s s e n t i a l l y t h e s a m e w a y t o c h a n g e t h a t s i n g l e d i m e n s i o n , e . g . ,
i n t h e T V e x a m p l e , all o f t h e k n o b s c h a n g e d p i c t u r e q u a l i t y i n r o u g h l y t h e s a m e
d e g r e e . I n m a n y p r o b l e m s , t h o u g h , w e m u s t deal w i t h differences that h a v e several
dimensions and w e must deal w i t h t h e m b y u s i n g s p e c i a l i z e d o p e r a t o r s — t h a t is,
o p e r a t o r s that c h a n g e o n e o r a f e w o f t h e d i m e n s i o n s b u t n o t all o f t h e m .
I m a g i n e t h a t y o u are a c o n t r a c t o r b u i l d i n g a h o u s e . T h e e m p t y l o t t h a t y o u h a v e
r i g h t n o w differs i n m a n y d i m e n s i o n s f r o m y o u r g o a l . I t d o e s n ' t h a v e a f o u n d a t i o n ,
w a l l s o r roof, p l u m b i n g , w i r i n g , o r p a i n t . F u r t h e r , y o u r o p e r a t o r s — m a s o n s , car-
penters, plumbers, electricians, and p a i n t e r s — a r e specialized. Masons can build
foundations and walls, but they can't paint. Electricians can p u t in wiring, b u t not
roofs. W h e n w e w e r e t u n i n g t h e T V s e t , i t w a s r e a s o n a b l e t o t r y k n o b s a t r a n d o m
to s e e w h a t h e l p e d . In b u i l d i n g a h o u s e , t h o u g h , this strategy w o u l d be wasteful
and foolish. I f the h o u s e n e e d e d painting, w e w o u l d n ' t r a n d o m l y call i n p l u m b e r s
o r c a r p e n t e r s t o s e e i f t h e y h e l p e d . W e w o u l d a n a l y z e w h a t still n e e d e d t o b e d o n e
a n d s e a r c h for a n a p p r o p r i a t e m e a n s t o a c c o m p l i s h it. T h i s i s j u s t w h a t t h e t e c h -
nique of means-ends analysis does in solving problems.
Means-Ends Analysis
M e a n s - e n d s analysis ( N e w e l l and S i m o n , 1972), like hill c l i m b i n g , tries to

reach the goal by taking a s e q u e n c e of steps, e a c h of w h i c h r e d u c e s the distance to
t h e g o a l . T h e m e a n s - e n d s t e c h n i q u e for d o i n g t h i s , h o w e v e r , i s b o t h m o r e c o m p l e x
and more powerful than the hill-climbing t e c h n i q u e . It can h a n d l e more c o m -
plex differences and e m p l o y s subgoals to h e l p execute each step.
T h e technique involves three procedures:
Procedure Example
1. F i n d a list of differences b e t w e e n The house needs plumbing,

the current state a n d t h e goal. wiring, and paint.
(If y o u c a n ' t f i n d a n y d i f f e r e n c e s ,
report that t h e p r o b l e m is solved.)
2 . T a k e t h e first d i f f e r e n c e a n d f i n d a n T r y to hire a p l u m b e r .
o p e r a t o r a p p r o p r i a t e for r e d u c i n g it.
If you can't find an appropriate If the plumber is out of town,

operator, go to t h e n e x t d i f f e r e n c e . try to hire an electrician.
If you run out of differences to find I f e v e r y o n e i s o u t o f t o w n for

operators for, r e p o r t t h a t y o u c a n ' t a builder's convention, give
solve the p r o b l e m . u p — a t l e a s t for n o w .
3 . C o m p a r e t h e c o n d i t i o n s for a p p l y i n g T h e painter says he'll d o the

t h e o p e r a t o r w i t h t h e c u r r e n t state j o b , b u t he b r o k e his ladder.
to f i n d a d i f f e r e n c e . ( I f t h e r e is
no difference, of course, just apply
the operator.)
If t h e r e is a d i f f e r e n c e , try to r e d u c e it. L e n d the painter your ladder.

Sometimes it is convenient to s h o w the relation b e t w e e n means and ends in a

means-ends table such as this:
foundation walls roof plumbing wiring painting
mason X X
carpenter X X
plumber X
electrician X
painter X
H e r e i s a n o t h e r e x a m p l e . I m a g i n e t h a t V l a d i s a S l o v a k e m i g r a n t i n t h e 1880's
w h o i s w e l l t r a i n e d i n m e a n s - e n d s a n a l y s i s . V l a d i s t r a v e l i n g f r o m his n a t i v e v i l l a g e
of Bicske, 35 miles w e s t of Budapest, to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, to work in the
s t e e l m i l l s . T h e r e a r e s e v e r a l m e a n s o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a v a i l a b l e w h i c h are s u i t e d t o
various purposes. T h e s e means and ends can be summarized as follows:
ship train coach trolley walking
large ocean distances X
large land distances X
m e d i u m distances X X
medium-small distances,
urban areas X
small distances X
V l a d looks in his atlas a n d d i s c o v e r s that P i t t s b u r g h is s e p a r a t e d from B i c s k e by

a v e r y large o c e a n . T h e m e a n s - e n d s table indicates that his original intention to take
a s t a g e c o a c h i s o u t . O n l y a s h i p w i l l d o . T h e first t r a v e l a g e n t h e s p e a k s t o c a n
a r r a n g e p a s s a g e for h i m o n a v e r y n i c e s h i p t o C a l c u t t a . V l a d r e j e c t s this offer
Search 35
b e c a u s e h i s atlas s h o w s t h a t C a l c u t t a i s e v e n f a r t h e r f r o m P i t t s b u r g h t h a n B i c s k e is.
A f t e r all, h i s g o a l i s t o reduce t h e d i s t a n c e b e t w e e n h i m a n d P i t t s b u r g h . T h e s e c o n d
a g e n t offers h i m p a s s a g e o n a s h i p s a i l i n g f r o m B r e m e n t o N e w Y o r k . S i n c e N e w
Y o r k i s m u c h c l o s e r t o P i t t s b u r g h t h a n B i c s k e , V l a d b u y s a t i c k e t for N e w Y o r k .
N o w V l a d h a s i d e n t i f i e d a n o p e r a t o r for r e d u c i n g h i s d i s t a n c e f r o m
P i t t s b u r g h — t a k i n g a ship from B r e m e n . B u t he can't a p p l y it b e c a u s e the operator
has a c o n d i t i o n — h e has t o b e i n B r e m e n t o sail. S o V l a d s e t s u p a s u b g o a l — t o g e t
from B i c s k e t o B r e m e n . R e l y i n g o n h i s atlas a n d h i s m e a n s - e n d s t a b l e , h e d e c i d e s
t o t a k e a train. F o r t u n a t e l y , h e i s a b l e t o b u y a t i c k e t for a n e x p r e s s train f r o m
B u d a p e s t to B r e m e n . H e r e again, the operator i m p o s e s a c o n d i t i o n — V l a d has to g e t
t o B u d a p e s t t o t a k e t h e train. S o h e sets u p a n e w s u b g o a l t o g e t f r o m B i c s k e t o
Budapest. Since B i c s k e is out in the sticks, the m e a n s - e n d s table tells V l a d that he
has o n l y o n e o p t i o n , t h e s t a g e c o a c h . S i n c e t h e c o a c h d o e s n ' t s t o p a t V l a d ' s h o v e l ,
h e has t o s e t u p o n e m o r e s u b g o a l — t o g e t t o t h e c o a c h s t o p . H i s r e l i a b l e m e a n s -
ends table tells him to walk.
HILL CLIMBING A N D MEANS-ENDS ANALYSIS: A C O M P A R I S O N
B o t h m e t h o d s s e a r c h for a n e x t s t e p w h i c h w i l l r e d u c e t h e d i s t a n c e t o t h e g o a l .
Means-ends analysis is a m o r e p o w e r f u l m e t h o d than hill c l i m b i n g b e c a u s e :
1 . i t c a n c o n s i d e r m a n y d i m e n s i o n s o f d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e c u r r e n t state a n d t h e
goal, and
2. it can set up a s e q u e n c e of subgoals to h e l p in a c c o m p l i s h i n g the next step.
B e c a u s e both methods look only one step ahead, both h a v e difficulty w i t h b l i n d

alleys and detour problems. For example, in solving the River Crossing Problem in
C h a p t e r 1 , i t i s n e c e s s a r y a t s o m e p o i n t for t h e f a r m e r t o t a k e o n e o f h i s p o s s e s s i o n s
back across the river a w a y from the goal. H i l l c l i m b e r s , m e a n s - e n d s a n a l y z e r s , a n d ,
not incidentally, p e o p l e , h a v e trouble w i t h p r o b l e m s o f this k i n d .
In the next section, a m o n g other things, we will discuss some procedures
w h i c h can h e l p us out of our difficulties w i t h detour p r o b l e m s .
FRACTIONATION METHODS
A v e r y p o w e r f u l w a y t o s i m p l i f y t h e s e a r c h for a s o l u t i o n i s t o b r e a k t h e p r o b l e m
intojaarts. I m a g i n e t h a t y o u are w o r k i n g y o u r w a y t h r o u g h a t r e e m a z e that h a s a
length of ten, and has t w o alternatives at e a c h of ten c h o i c e points. In this m a z e , y o u
w o u l d have to find the goal a m o n g 2 o r 1,024 a l t e r n a t i v e s . B u t n o t i c e h o w t h i s
1 0
situation w o u l d c h a n g e i f s o m e o n e w h o k n e w t h e m a z e g a v e y o u t h e f o l l o w i n g h i n t .
_The last p e r s o n t o s o l v e t h e m a z e l o s t h i s p u p p y h a l f w a y t h r o u g h t h e . m a z e - T h e
p u p p y i s n o w s i t t i n g r i g h t i n front o f t h e d o o r t h r o u g h w h i c h t h e s o l u t i o n p a t h a n d
his m a s t e r p a s s e d . N o w y o u c a n b r e a k t h e p r o b l e m i n t o t w o p a r t s . A s asuhgoal, y o u
first s e a r c h for a n d r e s c u e t h e p u p p y . T h e n , w h e n y o u h a v e f o u n d it, y o u c a n s e a r c h
foTtrre-exit f r o m t h e r e . B r e a k i n g t h e p r o b l e m i n t o p a r t s i s a r e a l a d v a n t a g e b e c a u s e
solving the t w o s u b p r o b l e m s is easier than solving the original p r o b l e m . F i g u r e 3
illustrates t h e p o i n t . S i n c e y o u k n o w t h a t t h e p u p p y i s l o c a t e d h a l f w a y t h r o u g h t h e
m a z e , t h e r e are j u s t 2 o r 3 2 p l a c e s w h e r e i t m a y b e . O n c e y o u f i n d t h e p u p p y , t h e r e
5
are j u s t f i v e m o r e s t e p s t o r e a c h t h e g o a l , a n d , t h e r e f o r e , j u s t 3 2 a l t e r n a t i v e p a t h s t o
t h e exit. T o f i n d t h e p u p p y a n d t h e n f i n d t h e g o a l w i l l r e q u i r e u s t o e x a m i n e n o
more than 32 + 32 or 64 alternatives. W i t h o u t the hint, we w o u l d h a v e to e x a m i n e
a m a x i m u m of 1,024 a l t e r n a t i v e s .
W h e r e d o e s this a d v a n t a g e c o m e f r o m ? W h e n w e c o m e t o a d o o r h a l f w a y
t h r o u g h t h e m a z e a n d i t d o e s n ' t h a v e a p u p p y i n front o f it, w e k n o w t h a t w e d o n ' t
> 32 paths to h e r e
1,024 paths to here
32 paths
Y
1,024 paths
Figure 3. An Example of Breaking a P r o b l e m Into Parts
h a v e to e x p l o r e any of t h e 32 paths w h i c h lie b e y o n d . S i n c e there are 31 doors

w i t h o u t p u p p i e s , that m e a n s that we e l i m i n a t e 31 X 32 or 992 paths.
B r e a k i n g the p r o b l e m into parts, then, has r e d u c e d the a m o u n t o f search w e h a v e
1024
to do by a factor of , or 16. It is surprising w h a t o n e little s u b g o a l can do. H a v i n g
64
several subgoals w o u l d help e v e n more.
C l e a r l y , i f s o m e o n e g i v e s y o u a s u b g o a l , a s i n t h e e x a m p l e a b o v e , that w i l l h e l p
you to solve the problem. But in most cases you aren't g i v e n subgoals.„You have to
f i n d t h e m for y o u r s e l f . H o w c a n y o u d o t h a t ?
S u p p o s e that y o u are trying to solve a p r o b l e m like that r e p r e s e n t e d in F i g -
ure 4. Y o u are g i v e n A a n d s o m e h o w y o u h a v e to g e t to G. Y o u m a y be a b l e to find
a useful s u b g o a l if y o u w o r k into the p r o b l e m either forward or b a c k w a r d . F o r ex-
a m p l e , if y o u are a b l e to g e t from A to B, t h e n y o u can set up the s u b g o a l of getting
from B t o G . * I f y o u can g e t f r o m G t o F , t h e n y o u r subgoal i s getting f r o m F t o A .
* T h e hill-climbing method and means-ends analysis break up the problem in just

this way.
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I I U I I I I L_J Il
Figure 6. First Subgoal in t h e Figure 7. S e c o n d Subgoal in the
T o w e r of Hanoi Problem T o w e r of Hanoi Problem
N o t i c e that y o u m a y s e t u p s u b g o a l s i n this w a y w h i c h are n o t u s e f u l . F o r e x a m p l e ,
s u p p o s e that y o u d i s c o v e r that y o u c a n g e t t o M f r o m A , a n d s e t u p t h e s u b g o a l t o
g e t from M to G. In fact, t h e r e is no p a t h f r o m M to G so t h a t t h i s s u b g o a l c a n ' t be
a c h i e v e d . S u b g o a l s are so useful in p r o b l e m s o l v i n g that it is almost a l w a y s advisa-
b l e t o s e a r c h for t h e m , e v e n t h o u g h w e s o m e t i m e s f i n d o n e s t h a t a r e n o t u s e f u l .
Another w a y to find subgoals is to analyze the goal we are trying to reach. T h i s
process is illustrated in the T o w e r of Hanoi P r o b l e m s h o w n in F i g u r e 5. T h e
p r o b l e m i s t o m o v e t h e d i s k s f r o m t h e left p e g t o t h e r i g h t p e g w i t h t h e f o l l o w i n g
restrictions:
1. only one disk can be m o v e d at a time, and
2. a large disk m u s t n e v e r be p l a c e d on a small disk.
Figure 8 . Subgoals C a n b e Used t o G u i d e t h e Problem Solver A r o u n d D e t o u r s

E x a m i n i n g the goal, we can ask w h a t part of the goal is the hardest to a c h i e v e .

S i n c e the s e c o n d restriction constrains the small disk least, and the large disk most,
w e m a y r e a s o n t h a t g e t t i n g t h e l a r g e d i s k i n p l a c e i s t h e h a r d e s t part t o a c h i e v e .
T h e r e f o r e , w e s e t a s o u r s u b g o a l t h e state o f affairs s h o w n i n F i g u r e 6 , w i t h t h e
o t h e r d i s k s a t u n s p e c i f i e d l o c a t i o n s . B y c o m p a r i n g t h e s u b g o a l w i t h t h e initial s t a t e ,
w e c a n s e e t h a t t h e i n i t i a l state c o u l d b e t r a n s f o r m e d i n t o t h e s u b g o a l i f t h e t w o
smaller disks w e r e r e m o v e d . This suggests the second subgoal s h o w n in Figure 7.
A r m e d w i t h these t w o subgoals, most find it quite easy to s o l v e the problem.
T h e use of subgoals in the T o w e r of Hanoi P r o b l e m illustrates a second very
i m p o r t a n t f u n c t i o n of s u b g o a l s : subgoals can be used to guide the problem solver
around detours. F i g u r e 8 i l l u s t r a t e s t h i s p o i n t .
W i t h t h e i n i t i a l state a t A a n d t h e g o a l a t G , p r o b l e m s o l v e r s u s i n g a d i s t a n c e -
r e d u c i n g m e t h o d are b o u n d to run into the barrier. H o w e v e r , if we p r o v i d e a
subgoal, S, to lead the p r o b l e m solvers in a detour around the barrier, they can use
t h e i r d i s t a n c e r e d u c i n g m e t h o d s first to g e t f r o m A to S a n d t h e n f r o m S to G.
To s e e that the T o w e r of H a n o i P r o b l e m is a detour p r o b l e m , look at F i g u r e 9.
T h e figure shows the c o m p l e t e solution, together with a measure of the distance
f r o m t h e g o a l a t e a c h s t e p . S i n c e t h e o b j e c t i v e w a s t o g e t t h r e e p e g s off d i s k 1 a n d
onto disk 3, d i s t a n c e to the goal w a s m e a s u r e d as f o l l o w s :
D i s t a n c e = d i s k s on p e g 1 + d i s k s off p e g 3
As y o u can s e e , the solution r e q u i r e s y o u to take t w o steps that increase the distance

to the g o a l — g o a l step 3 and step 5. T h e s e detours disappear, h o w e v e r , if you use
t h e t w o s u b g o a l s , S I a n d S 2 , f o u n d b y a n a l y z i n g t h e g o a l . F i g u r e 9 s h o w s that
t r a v e l i n g f r o m t h e start t o S I a n d f r o m S 2 t o t h e g o a l r e q u i r e s o n l y f o r w a r d m o v e s .
T h i s situation is r e p r e s e n t e d in F i g u r e 10.
T h e s o l u t i o n m e t h o d c a l l e d abstraction a l s o w o r k s b y g e n e r a t i n g s u b g o a l s .
S u p p o s e that y o u are s o l v i n g a p r o b l e m w i t h several restrictions,X, Y, a n d Z . S i n c e
y o u a r e h a v i n g t r o u b l e , y o u t u r n t o t h e m e t h o d o f a b s t r a c t i o n . W i t h this m e t h o d , y o u
b r e a k the p r o b l e m into parts. First, y o u drop s o m e of the restrictions, say Y a n d Z ,
a n d s o l v e t h e r e s u l t i n g " a b s t r a c t e d " p r o b l e m . N e x t , y o u try t o fix u p t h i s s o l u t i o n ,
s o t h a t r e s t r i c t i o n Y i s s a t i s f i e d . F i n a l l y , y o u try t o fix t h e s o l u t i o n a g a i n s o t h a t t h e
restriction Z is satisfied a n d the original p r o b l e m is solved.
Let's illustrate this w i t h a p r o b l e m . S u p p o s e that we are r u n n i n g a m e e t i n g of
16 p e o p l e , m a l e s a n d f e m a l e s , from four c o m p a n i e s a n d o c c u p y i n g four positions,
a s s h o w n i n F i g u r e 1 1 . O u r p r o b l e m i s t o o r g a n i z e four, f o u r - p e r s o n g r o u p s w i t h t h e
restrictions that e a c h task g r o u p i n c l u d e :
-Z. a p e r s o n from e a c h c o m p a n y
2. a p e r s o n from e a c h position
3. t w o males and t w o females.
S o l v i n g this p r o b l e m b y a b s t r a c t i o n , w e start b y s o l v i n g i t j u s t for r e s t r i c t i o n 1 .

This solution, s h o w n in Figure 12, is very easy to achieve.
N e x t w e fix u p t h e s o l u t i o n s o t h a t i t s a t i s f i e s r e s t r i c t i o n 2 . T h i s s o l u t i o n , s h o w n
in Figure 13, is also easy to achieve. As we can see, h o w e v e r , the proposed solution
d o e s n o t b a l a n c e all o f t h e g r o u p s b y s e x . G r o u p s 2 a n d 4 a r e b a l a n c e d b u t 1 a n d 3
are not. H o w e v e r , this solution can b e fixed u p b y e x c h a n g i n g t h e t w o p e o p l e from
c o m p a n i e s A a n d C in g r o u p 1 w i t h t h o s e in g r o u p 3.
Finally, and perhaps most important, we can set up useful subgoals w h e n we
are dealing with familiar classes of problems. W h e n we are writing an essay, we
k n o w that w e can b r e a k the task into p a r t s — r e s e a r c h , brainstorming, organization,
w r i t i n g a draft, r e v i s i n g , g e t t i n g o u t s i d e c r i t i c i s m . W e k n o w t h i s b e c a u s e w e a r e
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Figure 9. Solution to the T o w e r of Hanoi Problem
familiar with w r i t i n g tasks. In the s a m e w a y , in s o l v i n g a g e o m e t r y p r o b l e m , we

k n o w t h a t o u r first s u b g o a l s h o u l d b e t o d r a w a f i g u r e .
USING K N O W L E D G E IN PROBLEM S O L V I N G
Learning
I f you k n e w that y o u w e r e g o i n g t o h a v e t o run the s a m e m a z e 5 0 times, y o u

would certainly make a point of trying to learn useful things about the maze. For
A , B , C , D are companies
1,2,3,4 a r e t a b l e s
Figure 1 1 . Solving by Abstraction for Restriction 1

Search
F = female, M = male
1,2,3,4 a r e t a b l e s
A , B , C , D are c o m p a n i e s
L,M,R,S are professions
Figure 1 2 . Solving by Abstraction for Restrictions 1 and 2
e x a m p l e , y o u w o u l d try t o r e c o g n i z e b l i n d - a l l e y e n t r a n c e s s o a s n o t t o s t u m b l e i n t o
t h e m a g a i n . Y o u w o u l d p r o b a b l y try t o r e m e m b e r t h e m o v e j u s t b e f o r e t h e e n d , a n d
o n a p a r t i c u l a r l y s u c c e s s f u l r u n y o u m i g h t w a n t t o r e m e m b e r y o u r first f e w m o v e s
as well. As you gain e x p e r i e n c e with the m a z e , the old patterns will g r o w and n e w
ones will be a d d e d until t h e y b l e n d together to c o v e r the w h o l e solution path. As
t h e patterns g r o w , t h e n u m b e r o f e r r o r s y o u m a k e w i l l d e c r e a s e u n t i l f i n a l l y y o u c a n
run the m a z e perfectly.
Clearly, pattern l e a r n i n g c a n r e d u c e the difficulty of search e n o r m o u s l y . It's
fortunate t h a t t h i s i s s o , for o t h e r w i s e w e w o u l d all w a s t e a g r e a t d e a l o f t i m e f i n d i n g
our w a y h o m e a t n i g h t .
Searching for auxiliary problems is a v e r y p o w e r f u l p r o b l e m - s o l v i n g t e c h -
n i q u e w h i c h i s e f f e c t i v e e x a c t l y b e c a u s e i t p r o v i d e s o p p o r t u n i t y for r e l e v a n t l e a r n -
ing. W h e n w e a r e h a v i n g d i f f i c u l t y w i t h a p r o b l e m , w e c a n t r y t o p o s e a r e l a t e d ,
e a s i e r a u x i l i a r y p r o b l e m for o u r s e l v e s . W e d o t h i s b e c a u s e b y s o l v i n g t h e e a s i e r
problem, w e h o p e t o learn s o m e t h i n g that will h e l p u s s o l v e the harder p r o b l e m .
For example, consider the E i g h t Dots Problem in Chapter 1. We can create an
easier auxiliary p r o b l e m quite h a n d i l y i n this case j u s t b y r e d u c i n g t h e n u m b e r o f
dots. S o l v e t h e E i g h t D o t s P r o b l e m b y first s o l v i n g t h i s o n e :
• _ o
then this o n e :
• • _ o O
and t h e n this o n e :
• • • _ o o o
A s y o u s o l v e e a c h p r o b l e m , b e careful t o notice a n y t h i n g y o u learn that helps y o u
to solve the next harder problem.
F r e q u e n t l y you can create an easier auxiliary p r o b l e m by r e d u c i n g the number
of e l e m e n t s in the p r o b l e m or the n u m b e r of constraints.
Figure 1 3 . Solution of t h e Abstraction Problem
PATTERN MATCHING
P l a y i n g 50 g a m e s of chess or of poker isn't like r u n n i n g the s a m e m a z e 50 times.

E a c h chess g a m e and e a c h poker g a m e is u n i q u e . Still, there are m a n y patterns to
b e l e a r n e d w h i c h can b e useful i n later play, e.g., standard chess gambits a n d
e n d - g a m e situations.
T h e importance of such patterns in chess has b e e n demonstrated by de Groot
and by S i m o n and his collaborators in a significant series of studies. T h e s e investi-
gations w e r e sparked by a surprising discovery m a d e by de Groot (1965), w h o was
trying to a n s w e r the question, " W h y are chess masters better than w e a k e r p l a y e r s ? "
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It was c o m m o n l y b e l i e v e d that w h e n chess masters c h o s e a m o v e , t h e y either

examined more alternatives than w e a k e r players or e x a m i n e d the alternatives in
greater d e p t h — t h a t is, t h e y l o o k e d further a h e a d than w e a k e r players. D e G r o o t
f o u n d that n e i t h e r o f t h e s e b e l i e f s w a s t r u e . B o t h m a s t e r s a n d w e a k e r p l a y e r s
typically e x a m i n e d b e t w e e n 30 and 50 m o v e s , and both searched to a depth of t w o
or three m o v e s on the a v e r a g e . T h e o n l y t h i n g that s e e m e d really different a b o u t
the masters' p l a y was that t h e y m a d e better m o v e s !
W h i l e c o n d u c t i n g his investigations, de G r o o t n o t i c e d a curious thing. If the
c h e s s m a s t e r s l o o k e d a t a c h e s s p o s i t i o n for o n l y a f e w s e c o n d s , t h e y c o u l d r e -
m e m b e r it remarkably w e l l — f a r better than w e a k e r players. T h e masters' ability to
r e m e m b e r chess positions w a s n ' t a general m e m o r y skill. W h e n t h e y w e r e asked to
remember random arrangements of chess p i e c e s , they did no better than the w e a k e r
players. Their superior ability to r e m e m b e r chess positions d e p e n d e d specifically
on their superior k n o w l e d g e of chess.
T h i s o b s e r v a t i o n s u g g e s t s a n e x p l a n a t i o n for t h e m a s t e r s ' s u p e r i o r a b i l i t y t o
find g o o d m o v e s . T h e e x p l a n a t i o n h a s b e e n a r t i c u l a t e d b e s t b y S i m o n a n d h i s
collaborators:
1 . Chess_masters c a n r e m e m b e r b r i e f l y e x p o s e d c h e s s p o s i t i o n s b e c a u s e t h e y h a v e
l i v e r y large n u m b e r of chess patterns stored in memory. T h e s e patterns allow the
"^master to r e m e m b e r a c h e s s p o s i t i o n as a c o m b i n a t i o n of a s m a l l n u m b e r of f a i r l y
large patterns a l r e a d y familiar to t h e m . L e s s e x p e r i e n c e d c h e s s players m u s t try
to r e m e m b e r chess positions as a large n u m b e r of smaller p a t t e r n s — a more
difficult task.
S i m o n and G i l m a r t i n (1973) tested this theory b y c o m p u t e r simulation. T h e y
constructed a program, called M A P P , w h i c h r e m e m b e r e d chess board positions
b y c o m p a r i n g t h e m t o p a t t e r n s s t o r e d i n its m e m o r y . G i v e n a b o u t 1,000 p a t t e r n s ,
M A P P did better than chess beginners but only half as w e l l as masters. On the
basis of their simulation, S i m o n a n d G i l m a r t i n estimate that masters h a v e b e -
t w e e n 10,000 a n d 100,000 c h e s s p a t t e r n s s t o r e d i n m e m o r y .
2 . C h e s s m a s t e r s c a n f i n d b e t t e r m o v e s t h a n w e a k e r p l a y e r s for a g i v e n a m o u n t o f
search b e c a u s e the c h e s s masters h a v e a larger c o l l e c t i o n of patterns stored in
memory. T h e y can r e c o g n i z e better than w e a k e r players that a particular pattern
o n t h e c h e s s b o a r d r e q u i r e s a p a r t i c u l a r r e s p o n s e . T h e y m a y r e c o g n i z e , for
example, that a b o a r d position is similar to o n e in a g a m e t h e y are familiar with,
e.g., " O h , this i s l i k e G a m e 3 o f F i s c h e r v e r s u s S p a s s k y . " T h i s r e c o g n i t i o n w i l l
often s u g g e s t a m o v e s i m i l a r t o o n e i n t h e o r i g i n a l g a m e .
H o w l o n g d o e s it take a chess master to learn the patterns on w h i c h his skill is

b a s e d ? S i m o n a n d C h a s e (1973) estimate that to b e c o m e a grand master requires
from 10,000 t o 50,000 h o u r s s t a r i n g a t c h e s s p o s i t i o n s . T h e y n o t e t h a t n o o n e h a s
reached the grand master l e v e l with less than about a d e c a d e ' s intense p r e o c c u p a -
tion w i t h t h e g a m e .
SEARCH A L G O R I T H M S
S o m e t i m e s w h e n w e a r e s e a r c h i n g for t h e s o l u t i o n t o a p r o b l e m , w e u s e p r o c e -
d u r e s that are o f t e n u s e f u l , b u t a r e b y n o m e a n s g u a r a n t e e d t o p r o d u c e t h e s o l u t i o n
o f t h e p r o b l e m . S u c h p r o c e d u r e s a r e c a l l e d search heuristics. H i l l c l i m b i n g , m e a n s -
e n d s a n a l y s i s , a n d l o o k i n g for a u x i l i a r y p r o b l e m s a r e all e x a m p l e s o f s e a r c h h e u r i s -
tics. F o r s o m e c l a s s e s o f p r o b l e m s , t h o u g h , t h e r e a r e p r o c e d u r e s w h i c h , i f c o r r e c t l y
applied, are g u a r a n t e e d to y i e l d the right solution. T h e s e p r o c e d u r e s are c a l l e d
algorithms.
T h e long-division procedure is an example of a search algorithm. W h e n you
r e c o g n i z e that y o u a r e d e a l i n g w i t h a d i v i s i o n p r o b l e m , y o u c a n a p p l y t h e m e t h o d
and b e sure o f g e t t i n g the a n s w e r . Y o u can s o l v e d i v i s i o n p r o b l e m s b y trial-and-

error s e a r c h , b u t i t i s v e r y i n e f f i c i e n t w i t h c o m p l e x p r o b l e m s . I f I a s k e d y o u t o
divide 19 into 323, y o u c o u l d carry out a systematic trial-and-error search as follows:
" 1 9 x 1 = 19. N o , t h a t ' s n o t it.

19 x 2 = 3 8 . N o , t h a t ' s n o t it.
19 x 3 = 57, etc."
Clearly the long-division algorithm is better.

W e all l e a r n a n u m b e r o f s e a r c h a l g o r i t h m s i n s c h o o l . W e l e a r n a b o u t " c o m p l e t -
ing the s q u a r e " in algebra, "balancing equations" in chemistry, the "right-hand
r u l e " in physics, the Phythagorean theorem in geometry, and so on.
A s e a r c h a l g o r i t h m w h i c h y o u m a y n o t k n o w i s t h e maze algorithm. T h e m a z e
a l g o r i t h m i n s u r e s t h a t w h e n y o u e n t e r a m a z e , y o u w i l l always b e a b l e t o f i n d t h e
exit. T h e algorithm i s v e r y s i m p l e . A s y o u enter the m a z e , p u t y o u r h a n d o n the w a l l ,
and keep i t there a s y o u w a l k t h r o u g h t h e m a z e . T r y t h e a l g o r i t h m w i t h t h e m a z e
s h o w n i n F i g u r e 1 4 . I m a g i n e first t h a t y o u a r e w a l k i n g t h r o u g h t h e m a z e w i t h y o u r
r i g h t h a n d o n t h e w a l l . T h e n t r y i t u s i n g y o u r left h a n d .
N o t i c e t h a t y o u t o o k a d i f f e r e n t p a t h t o t h e e x i t w h e n y o u u s e d y o u r left h a n d
than w h e n y o u u s e d y o u r right hand. Either h a n d will work, b u t it is important not
to s w i t c h h a n d s ! If y o u s w i t c h from right to left w h e n y o u get to the arrow (see
F i g u r e 1 4 ) , y o u w i l l never g e t o u t o f t h e m a z e . T h e a d v a n t a g e t h a t t h e m a z e
algorithm g i v e s is that it insures that y o u w o n ' t g e t c a u g h t w a n d e r i n g in circles
through the maze.
The split-half method is a n o t h e r s e a r c h a l g o r i t h m a n d a v e r y u s e f u l o n e . It is
u s e d by electricians, m e c h a n i c s , electronics technicians, a n d others to locate trou-
b l e s i n f a u l t y e q u i p m e n t . A s a n e x a m p l e o f its u s e , s u p p o s e t h a t y o u r front d o o r b e l l
Start
Figure 1 4 . A P r a c t i c e M a z e for the M a z e Algorithm

Search 45
Figure 1 5 . Using t h e Split-half Algorithm to Locate a C u r r e n t Break
doesn't work. Y o u find that it isn't g e t t i n g current, e v e n t h o u g h t h e p o w e r s u p p l y

in the kitchen is w o r k i n g fine. T h e r e m u s t be a break s o m e w h e r e in the 20 feet of
wall b e t w e e n t h e k i t c h e n a n d t h e front door. Y o u w a n t to locate t h e b r e a k w i t h a
minimum of d a m a g e to your house. U s i n g the split-half t e c h n i q u e , y o u m a k e a hole
h a l f w a y b e t w e e n t h e k i t c h e n a n d t h e b e l l , a n d t e s t t h e w i r e for c u r r e n t . I f t h e r e i s
current, t h e n t h e b r e a k m u s t b e b e t w e e n t h e h o l e a n d t h e front door. A p p l y i n g t h e
t e c h n i q u e a g a i n , y o u m a k e a s e c o n d h o l e h a l f - w a y b e t w e e n t h e first h o l e a n d t h e
b e l l . I f y o u d i d n ' t f i n d c u r r e n t o n y o u r first t e s t , t h e b r e a k m u s t b e b e t w e e n t h e h o l e
and the kitchen. I n this case y o u w o u l d h a v e m a d e t h e s e c o n d h o l e h a l f w a y b e -
t w e e n t h e first h o l e a n d t h e k i t c h e n . I f y o u m a k e h o l e s t h a t a r e a b o u t t h r e e i n c h e s
across, y o u s h o u l d n e v e r h a v e t o m a k e m o r e t h a n six o f t h e m t o f i n d t h e b r e a k , a s
shown in Figure 15.
SUMMARY: S E A R C H I N G FOR S O L U T I O N S
W e h a v e d i s c u s s e d f o u r g e n e r a l m e t h o d s for s e a r c h i n g for p r o b l e m s o l u t i o n s :
• Trial and error

• Proximity methods
• Fractionation methods, and
• Knowledge-based methods.
1 . T r i a l - a n d - e r r o r s e a r c h i s u s e f u l o n l y i n s m a l l p r o b l e m s p a c e s . S y s t e m a t i c trial-
and-error s e a r c h i s t w i c e a s e f f i c i e n t a s b l i n d t r i a l - a n d - e r r o r s e a r c h .
2. Proximity methods attempt to solve p r o b l e m s by s e l e c t i n g a step at a time, e a c h
of which reduces the distance to the goal.
a. T h e h i l l - c l i m b i n g m e t h o d s e e s just o n e k i n d of d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n the cur-
r e n t state a n d t h e g o a l , e . g . , h e i g h t , p i c t u r e q u a l i t y . A l l its o p e r a t o r s h a v e t h e
same e f f e c t — t o c h a n g e that difference.
b. Means-ends analysis can handle many kinds of differences in the same prob-
lem. It e m p l o y s s p e c i a l i z e d operators w h i c h h a v e different effects on the
differences. If it runs into difficulties in a p p l y i n g an operator, it can set up a
s e q u e n c e of subgoals to r e d u c e that difference.
All proximity methods h a v e trouble with detour problems.
3. Fractionation m e t h o d s involve breaking the p r o b l e m into a s e q u e n c e of smaller

parts, that,is, by setting up subgoals. Subgoals m a k e p r o b l e m s easier to solve
b e c a u s e t h e y r e d u c e the amount of search r e q u i r e d to find the solution, and t h e y
may g u i d e the problem solver around a detour. ~
W e can set u p subgoals b y w o r k i n g part w a y into the p r o b l e m , analyzing the
goal to be a c h i e v e d , d r o p p i n g some of the p r o b l e m restrictions and solving the
"abstracted" p r o b l e m , or using k n o w l e d g e of familiar p r o b l e m types.
4. K n o w l e d g e - b a s e d methods u s e information stored in the p r o b l e m solver's m e m -
o r y t o g u i d e t h e s e a r c h for s o l u t i o n . P r o b l e m s o l v e r s m a y s e t o u t t o a c q u i r e t h e
n e e d e d k n o w l e d g e w h e n t h e y h a v e difficulty. F o r e x a m p l e , t h e y m a y solve a n
auxiliary p r o b l e m to learn h o w to solve the one they are h a v i n g difficulty with.
Or p r o b l e m solvers m a y use information already k n o w n to them, as w h e n a chess
player uses stored chess patterns, a p u z z l e enthusiast recognizes a p r o b l e m type
a n d a p p l i e s a p r o b l e m s c h e m a , or a m e c h a n i c a p p l i e s a search algorithm such as
the split-half t e c h n i q u e .
EXECUTING THE S O L U T I O N PLAN
O n c e w e h a v e p l a n n e d a s o l u t i o n t o a p r o b l e m , w e h a v e t o c a r r y i t out. S o m e -
t i m e s e x e c u t i o n o f t h e p l a n i s q u i t e e a s y . I n t h e D r i v e r ' s L i c e n s e P r o b l e m , for
example, the hard part is figuring out w h a t equations we w a n t to solve. Carrying out
the solution is routine algebra. We n e e d only take care not to m a k e d u m b mistakes
w h i c h w i l l s p o i l o u r b r i l l i a n t l y c o n c e i v e d p l a n . ( D u m b m i s t a k e s g i v e p e o p l e far
m o r e trouble than t h e y m a y care to admit.)
I n o t h e r c a s e s , e x e c u t i o n i s b y n o m e a n s t r i v i a l . F o r e x a m p l e , after w e h a v e
p l a n n e d a n e s s a y , w e f i n d that t u r n i n g o u r p l a n i n t o s m o o t h l y f l o w i n g s e n t e n c e s o r
e v e n into marginally intelligible scrawl is v e r y difficult i n d e e d . F r e q u e n t l y the
plan has to be m o d i f i e d or in some cases a b a n d o n e d entirely. O u r attempts at
execution send us scurrying back to the drawing board to devise a n e w plan. With
luck, we will h a v e l e a r n e d e n o u g h from our disastrous attempt to e x e c u t e the old
plan that our n e w plan will h a v e a better c h a n c e of success.
Executing the solution provides us with a very valuable check on the adequacy
of our plans. S o m e t i m e s students will look at the problems at the e n d of a chapter
and d e c i d e that s i n c e t h e y k n o w h o w t o s o l v e t h e m , t h e y n e e d n ' t b o t h e r w i t h the
d r u d g e r y of actually e x e c u t i n g the solutions. S o m e t i m e s the students are right, b u t
s o m e t i m e s t h e y miss a n e x c e l l e n t opportunity t o d i s c o v e r that t h e y w e r e w r o n g .
EVALUATING THE S O L U T I O N
H o w do we k n o w w h e n we have gotten the right a n s w e r to a p r o b l e m ? If we

a r e r u s h e d , w e m a y d o l i t t l e m o r e t h a n g u e s s t h a t w h a t w e h a v e looks l i k e a n
a n s w e r . T h e p r o b l e m s a i d " S o l v e for X , " a n d h e r e w e h a v e X o n o n e s i d e a n d
e v e r y t h i n g e l s e on t h e other side, so that's t h e a n s w e r .
T h i s q u i c k g l a n c e at the a n s w e r to s e e if it has the g e n e r a l s h a p e of a solution
m a y b e the b e s t w e can d o w h e n w e are rushed, b u t i t can hardly b e v i e w e d a s a n
a d e q u a t e e v a l u a t i o n . I f a d r u g g i s t w e r e w e i g h i n g o u t a m e d i c a t i o n for u s , w e w o u l d
not o n l y w a n t h i m to c h e c k carefully to s e e that his m e a s u r e d quantities corre-
sponded to the quantities in the prescription. We might e v e n w a n t h i m to be sure
t h a t t h e p r e s c r i p t i o n h e i s u s i n g i s t h e o n e w i t h o u r n a m e o n it!
T h e c r i t i c a l q u e s t i o n i n e v a l u a t i o n i s t h i s : " D o e s t h e a n s w e r I p r o p o s e m e e t all
o f t h e g o a l s a n d c o n d i t i o n s s e t b y t h e p r o b l e m ? " T h u s , after t h e effort o f f i n d i n g a
solution, we m u s t turn our attention b a c k to the p r o b l e m statement and c h e c k
c a r e f u l l y t o b e s u r e o u r s o l u t i o n s a t i s f i e s it.
In easy problems, we may be tempted strongly to skip evaluation because the
Search 47
probability of an error s e e m s small. In s o m e cases this can be costly. T h i s can be

s h o w n b y t h e f o l l o w i n g p r o b l e m s f r o m W h i m b e y a n d L o c h h e a d (1980). S o l v e t h e m
before proceeding.
1. There are 3 separate, equal-size boxes, and inside each box there are 2 separate
small boxes, and inside each of the small boxes there are 4 e v e n smaller boxes.
H o w many boxes are there altogether?
a. 24 b. 13 c. 21 d. 33 e. some other number
2. T e n full crates of walnuts w e i g h 4 1 0 lb., w h i l e an e m p t y crate w e i g h s 10 lb. H o w

much do the walnuts alone w e i g h ?
a. 400 lb. b. 390 lb. c. 3 1 0 lb. d. 320 lb. e. 420 lb.

3. Three empty cereal boxes w e i g h 9 ozs. and each box holds 11 ozs. of cereal. H o w
much do 2 full boxes of cereal w e i g h together?
a. 20 ozs. b. 40 ozs. c. 14 ozs. d. 28 ozs. e. 1 5 ozs.

4. Cross out the letter after the letter in the word seldom w h i c h is in the same
position in the word as it is in the alphabet.
5. In how many days of the w e e k does the third letter of the day's name immediately
follow the first letter of the day's name in the alphabet?
a. 1 b. 2 c. 3 d. 3 e. 5
W h i l e these p r o b l e m s are not difficult, it is easy to m a k e mistakes w h i l e solving

t h e m , a n d t h e m i s t a k e s a r e r e v e a l i n g . W h i m b e y a n d L o c h h e a d (1980) p o i n t o u t t h e
following c o m m o n errors:
I n p r o b l e m 4 , m a n y p e o p l e cross out the " d " rather than t h e " o " i n " s e l d o m . "
O n e can i m a g i n e that t h e s e p e o p l e h a v e b e c o m e s o i n v o l v e d i n the p r o c e s s e s o f
finding the letter w i t h t h e s a m e position in the a l p h a b e t as in t h e w o r d that t h e y
forget that t h e i r task i s t o c r o s s o u t t h e l e t t e r after it. E v a l u a t i o n c o u l d h a v e
r e v e a l e d the error.
In p r o b l e m 2, a f r e q u e n t error is to a n s w e r 400 p o u n d s . T h e difficulty a p p e a r s
to lie in representing the p r o b l e m i n c o r r e c t l y — t h a t is, in failing to notice that there
are 1 0 1 0 - p o u n d b o x e s . I n e v a l u a t i n g , t h e n , it's i m p o r t a n t t o e v a l u a t e o u r
representation as w e l l as our solution.
While evaluation is useful in solving simple problems, it is e v e n more useful
i n solving c o m p l e x ones. S u p p o s e w e h a v e the task o f w r i t i n g a n e s s a y o n " E n -
d a n g e r e d S p e c i e s " for a n a u d i e n c e o f 1 0 - y e a r - o l d s . L i k e t h e p e o p l e s o l v i n g p r o b -
lem 4, we m a y b e c o m e so i n v o l v e d in o n e part of the p r o b l e m , e.g., e x p o u n d i n g our
theories of e c o l o g y , that we c o m p l e t e l y forget that we are s u p p o s e d to w r i t e to a
10-year-old a u d i e n c e . W h i l e writing, w e m u s t c o n t i n u a l l y e v a l u a t e w h a t w e w r i t e
t o b e s u r e that i t s a t i s f i e s all t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s o f o u r w r i t i n g t a s k .
Some problems h a v e u n i q u e solutions. We either get t h e m right or we get t h e m
wrong. Other problems h a v e a w h o l e range of solutions, some better than others.
P r o b l e m s o f this sort p o s e a n e s p e c i a l l y d i f f i c u l t e v a l u a t i o n t a s k — t h e t a s k o f d e t e r -
m i n i n g h o w g o o d our solution is. I n t h e chapters o n d e c i s i o n m a k i n g , w e w i l l
d i s c u s s t e c h n i q u e s w h i c h c a n h e l p y o u t o c a r r y o u t t h i s task.
Sometimes special decision-making procedures don't help. What we m a y
really n e e d is an outside opinion. We will discuss just o n e practical case h e r e — t h e
case of writing. W h e n we write an essay, we often write a b o u t things of special
interest to u s — t h i n g s we k n o w a great d e a l about. B e c a u s e of our special k n o w l -
e d g e , i t m a y b e v e r y d i f f i c u l t for u s t o p u t o u r s e l v e s i n t h e p o s i t i o n o f o u r
a u d i e n c e — t o imagine what it w o u l d be like not to understand things we consider
obvious.
R e c o g n i z i n g this difficulty w e h a v e i n e v a l u a t i n g our o w n w r i t i n g , the s e n s i b l e
thing to do is to s e e k the h e l p of others. A s k i n g a friend to read aloud w h a t we h a v e

written and to tell us w h a t it means can be a horrifying b u t extremely educational
experience.
T e s t i n g w r i t i n g o u t o n t h e a u d i e n c e for w h i c h i t i s i n t e n d e d i s a v e r y s i m p l e
i d e a w i t h o b v i o u s a d v a n t a g e s , b u t v e r y f e w p e o p l e d o it. M a j o r c o r p o r a t i o n s a n d
g o v e r n m e n t a l a g e n c i e s p u t a great d e a l of m o n e y a n d effort into p r o d u c i n g instruc-
tion manuals and other d o c u m e n t s to inform the public, yet rarely consider testing
t h o s e d o c u m e n t s o n t h e a u d i e n c e for w h i c h t h e y w e r e i n t e n d e d .
W e i n t e n d our w r i t i n g t o b e understood. T o e v a l u a t e w h e t h e r o r not i t can b e
u n d e r s t o o d , w e s h o u l d r o u t i n e l y t a k e i t t o o t h e r s for c r i t i c i s m .
CONSOLIDATION
T h i n k of the last t i m e y o u s o l v e d a difficult p r o b l e m . W h e n t h e solution finally

c a m e t o y o u , y o u r strongest e m o t i o n w a s p r o b a b l y o n e o f great relief. A t s u c h t i m e s ,
we are likely to say to ourselves, " W h e w ! T h a n k G o d I'm through with that!" and
turn our attention to m o r e r e l a x i n g thoughts. It is just at this point, t h o u g h , that we
c a n g a i n m o s t f r o m t h e p r o c e s s o f consolidation—that i s , f r o m r e f l e c t i n g o n t h e
p r o b l e m - s o l v i n g e x p e r i e n c e w e h a v e j u s t b e e n t h r o u g h a n d l e a r n i n g f r o m it.
W h e n w e s t r u g g l e w i t h a h a r d p r o b l e m , w e m a y start off i n a h u n d r e d w r o n g
directions, e x p l o r e n u m e r o u s b l i n d alleys, miss critical c l u e s , a n d only s l o w l y c o m e
t o r e c o g n i z e w h a t ' s i m p o r t a n t a b o u t t h e p r o b l e m a n d w h a t i s not. A s w e m a k e
progress, w e m a y m a k e important c h a n g e s i n our representation, d e t e c t faulty
assumptions or discover useful detours. After a w e e k has passed, or perhaps e v e n
after a f e w h o u r s , w e w i l l b e a b l e t o r e m e m b e r v e r y l i t t l e o f t h i s c o m p l e x p r o c e s s .
W e r e c o g n i z e the p r o b l e m b u t forget w h y w e found i t s o difficult.
Consolidation, then, is best d o n e w h e n our m e m o r y of the problem-solving
p r o c e s s i s still v e r y f r e s h i n o u r m i n d s . H o w d o w e d o i t ? T h e b a s i c q u e s t i o n t o b e
a n s w e r e d is, " W h a t c a n I l e a r n f r o m t h e e x p e r i e n c e o f s o l v i n g t h i s p r o b l e m ? " T h e
f o l l o w i n g m o r e specific questions m a y h e l p us to a n s w e r this o n e :
1. W h y w a s this p r o b l e m difficult?
2. W a s it hard to find an appropriate representation?
3. W a s i t d i f f i c u l t for m e t o k e e p m y p l a c e i n t h e p r o b l e m ?
4. W a s it h a r d to f i n d a s o l u t i o n m e t h o d ?
5. Was there a detour?
6. W h y d i d I miss critical c l u e s ?
7. D i d I m a k e false assumptions?
8. Should I h a v e u s e d a different representation?
9. What mistakes did I make?
JO. D i d I m a k e i m p o r t a n t d i s c o v e r i e s a b o u t r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s , m e t h o d s , d e t o u r s ?
I J. If so, h o w d i d I m a k e t h e m ?
12. A r e t h e r e o t h e r p r o b l e m s s i m i l a r t o t h i s o n e ?
13. C o u l d t h e y h a v e b e e n s o l v e d i n t h e s a m e w a y ?
O f c o u r s e , d i f f e r e n t q u e s t i o n s m a y b e a p p r o p r i a t e for d i f f e r e n t p r o b l e m s . T h e
particular questions are not important. W h a t is important is that y o u reflect on the
p r o b l e m - s o l v i n g p r o c e s s , a s k q u e s t i o n s a b o u t it, a n d l e a r n f r o m t h e e x p e r i e n c e .
I f y o u m a k e i t a h a b i t t o c o n s o l i d a t e i m m e d i a t e l y after p r o b l e m s o l u t i o n , y o u
can take a d v a n t a g e of a w e a l t h of information w h i c h w o u l d o t h e r w i s e be lost to y o u .
THREE.
PROTOCOL ANALYSIS
I n this c h a p t e r w e i n t r o d u c e t h e t e c h n i q u e o f protocol analysis—cognitive

p s y c h o l o g y ' s m o s t p o w e r f u l t o o l for d e s c r i b i n g p s y c h o l o g i c a l p r o c e s s e s . F i r s t , w e
will answer the question, " W h a t is a protocol?" T h e n we will w o r k through several
examples to s h o w h o w protocols m a y be analyzed.
W H A T IS A P R O T O C O L ?
A protocol is a d e s c r i p t i o n of the activities, o r d e r e d in t i m e , in w h i c h a subject

e n g a g e s w h i l e p e r f o r m i n g a task.
A protocol, t h e n , is a d e s c r i p t i o n , b u t not e v e r y d e s c r i p t i o n of a task perform-
a n c e i s a p r o t o c o l . O f t e n w e d e s c r i b e tasks m e n t i o n i n g o n l y t h e i r o u t c o m e s o r g o a l s .
W e m a y s a y , for e x a m p l e , " M y G r e a t D a n e , S p o t , p e r s u a d e d m e t o g i v e h i m h i s
s u p p e r . " T h i s d e s c r i p t i o n tells us that the d o g d i d o n e or m o r e things to get food,
but it doesn't say what these things w e r e or in what order they occurred. T h e
d e s c r i p t i o n , t h e r e f o r e , is not a p r o t o c o l . T h e d e s c r i p t i o n b e l o w is a p r o t o c o l ,
however.
E x p e r i m e n t e r : [seated at d i n n e r table cutting into his steak]

Spot: [seated directiy b e h i n d the experimenter, his chin resting on the
experimenter's shoulder. Spot watches intently as the steak is b e i n g
cut]
Exp: [ s k e w e r s a l a r g e p i e c e o f s t e a k w i t h h i s fork]
Spot: [tail w a g s , s t o m a c h r u m b l e s o m i n o u s l y ]
Exp: [ b e g i n s t o r a i s e fork t o m o u t h ]
Spot: [places p a w on experimenter's arm and looks intently into experi-
menter's eyes]
Exp: "Spot!"
Spot: [removes paw, continues to watch intently]
Spot: [drools into e x p e r i m e n t e r ' s shirt p o c k e t ]
Exp: [abandons o w n dinner and feeds dog]
T h i s i s a p r o t o c o l b e c a u s e i t lists S p o t ' s a c t i v i t i e s a n d t h e o r d e r i n w h i c h t h e y
occurred. In the same w a y , w h e n we collect protocols of p e o p l e solving p r o b l e m s ,
w e are n o t j u s t i n t e r e s t e d i n t h e a n s w e r s t h e y g i v e u s , b u t , m o r e i m p o r t a n d y , i n t h e
sequence of things they do to get those answers. T h e y do things — such as draw
diagrams, m a k e c o m p u t a t i o n s , and ask q u e s t i o n s — i n a particular order.
W e w i l l d e s c r i b e t h r e e k i n d s o f p r o t o c o l s h e r e : motor p r o t o c o l s , eye movement

p r o t o c o l s , a n d verbal p r o t o c o l s . A l l t h r e e k i n d s h a v e p r o v e d t o b e v e r y u s e f u l for
d e s c r i b i n g p s y c h o l o g i c a l p r o c e s s e s , b u t i n this c h a p t e r o u r m a i n i n t e r e s t w i l l b e i n
the third k i n d — v e r b a l protocols.
MOTOR PROTOCOLS
To obtain motor protocols, we observe the obvious physical activities of our

subjects—activities such as walking, picking things up, and reaching. T h e " S p o t "
protocol was largely a motor protocol. T h e motor protocol b e l o w , collected by
Kohler (1925, p. 174), describes the activities of Sultan, an ape, as he solved a simple
problem.
(March 26th): Sultan is squatting at the bars, but cannot reach the fruit, which
lies outside, by means of his only available short stick. A longer stick is deposited
outside the bars, about t w o metres on one side of the objective, and parallel with the
grating. It can not be grasped with the hand, but it can be p u l l e d within reach by
means of the small stick (see Figure 1). Sultan tries to reach the fruit with the smaller
of the two sticks. N o t succeeding, he tears at a p i e c e of wire that projects from die
netting of his cage, b u t that, too, is in vain. T h e n he gazes about him; (there are
always in the course of these tests some long pauses, during which the animals
scrutinize the w h o l e visible area). He suddenly picks up the little stick once more,
goes up to the bars directly opposite to the long stick, scratches it towards him with
the 'auxiliary,' seizes it, and goes with it to the point opposite the objective, which ,
he secures. From the moment that his eyes fall upon the long stick, his procedure
forms one consecutive whole, without hiatus
K o h l e r u s e d the o b s e r v a t i o n that the solution o c c u r r e d s u d d e n l y to argue that

Sultan's solution process involved "insight." Further, Kohler u s e d the observation
t h a t t h e s o l u t i o n r a n off s m o o t h l y a n d c o n t i n u o u s l y t o a r g u e t h a t S u l t a n " k n e w w h a t
he was d o i n g " from the m o m e n t of insight.
M o t o r p r o t o c o l s a r e e s p e c i a l l y v a l u a b l e for u s e w i t h s u b j e c t s w h o h a v e l i m i t e d
language abilities—for example, children and animals.
Protocol Analysis 53
EYE-MOVEMENT PROTOCOLS
An e y e - m o v e m e n t protocol is a record of the places in a scene w h e r e the

s u b j e c t s fix t h e i r g a z e a s t h e y p e r f o r m a task. I n s o m e c a s e s , w e c a n o b t a i n suf-
ficiently accurate information about e y e m o v e m e n t s just by looking at the subjects,
as F a n t z (1961) has d o n e , to s e e if t h e y are l o o k i n g left or right. In other cases, we
must use sophisticated equipment such as an e y e - m o v e m e n t camera (Mackworth
and T h o m a s , 1962) to obtain p r e c i s e e y e positions.
F i g u r e 2 s h o w s t h e e y e m o v e m e n t s o f a n e x p e r t c h e s s p l a y e r d u r i n g t h e first
five seconds of examining the chess position s h o w n in F i g u r e 3 (Tichomirov and
P o z n y a n s k a y a , 1966). U s i n g t h e s e data, S i m o n a n d B a r e n f e l d (1969) a r g u e d that the
chess expert was examining attack-and-defense relationships among the pieces.
E y e - m o v e m e n t protocols h a v e also b e e n u s e d to study tasks s u c h as r e a d i n g
( C a r p e n t e r a n d Just, 1 9 7 8 ) a n d s o l v i n g n u m b e r p u z z l e s ( W i n i k o f f , 1 9 6 6 ) .
VERBAL PROTOCOLS
In a verbal, or " t h i n k i n g a l o u d " protocol, subjects are asked to say aloud every-
t h i n g t h e y t h i n k w h i l e p e r f o r m i n g t h e task. T h e y are a s k e d t o s a y e v e r y t h i n g t h a t
occurs t o t h e m , n o matter h o w trivial i t m a y s e e m . E v e n w i t h s u c h e x p l i c i t instruc-
t i o n s , h o w e v e r , s u b j e c t s m a y f o r g e t a n d fall s i l e n t — c o m p l e t e l y a b s o r b e d i n t h e
task. A t s u c h t i m e s t h e e x p e r i m e n t e r w i l l s a y , " R e m e m b e r , t e l l m e e v e r y t h i n g y o u
are t h i n k i n g . "
Figure 2. Record of Eye M o v e m e n t s for the First Five S e c o n d s Reprinted from Soviet
Psychology, V o l . 5, 1 9 6 6 , by permission of the publisher, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., W h i t e Plains,
NY 1 0 6 0 3 .
As examples we will s h o w t w o verbal protocols, in w h i c h subjects solve water-

j u g p r o b l e m s . T h e s e r e q u i r e that the subject m e a s u r e out a s p e c i f i e d quantity of
water using three jugs, as shown in Figure 4.
O n e typical water-jug p r o b l e m r e q u i r e s the subject t o m e a s u r e out 3 1 quarts

w h e n Jug A will hold 20 quarts; J u g B , 59 quarts; and Jug C, 4 quarts. T h e p r o b l e m
can be s o l v e d in four steps as follows:
1. Fill J u g B .
2. Fill Jug A from J u g B, l e a v i n g 39 quarts in B.
3. F i l l J u g C f r o m B, l e a v i n g 35 q u a r t s in B.
4 . E m p t y C a n d fill i t a g a i n f r o m B , l e a v i n g t h e d e s i r e d q u a n t i t y , 3 1 q u a r t s , i n B .
W h e n y o u a n a l y z e a p r o t o c o l i t i s h e l p f u l t o h a v e a l r e a d y d o n e t h e task y o u r s e l f .
S o , b e f o r e y o u b e g i n t o a n a l y z e P r o t o c o l I , try t o s o l v e t h i s p r o b l e m :
Measure 100 qts. g i v e n Jug A, holding 21 qts.; Jug B, holding 1 2 7 qts; and Jug C,
3 qts.
W h e n y o u have found the solution, solve the p r o b l e m in Protocol I, if y o u have

not already d o n e so.
PROTOCOL I
Problem: G i v e n J u g A , w h i c h c o n t a i n s 9 q t s . ; J u g B , 4 2 q t s . ; a n d J u g C , 6
qts., m e a s u r e out e x a c t l y 21 qts.
Subj = Subject Exp = Experimenter
Subj: (1) " U h , t h e first t h i n g t h a t ' s a p p a r e n t i s h a l f o f B i s , i s t h e u h , t h e

(2) a m o u n t that y o u w a n t . "
Exp: (3) "Uh huh."
Subj: (4) " U m , y o u c a n ' t g e t 21 from j u s t m u l t i p l y i n g up A or C.
(5) Y o u g e t 1 8 a n d 1 8 r e s p e c t i v e l y , t h a t ' s a s c l o s e a s y o u c a n g e t ,
(6) I g u e s s . U m , s o I'll try t o t h i n k o f t h e d i f f e r e n t c o m b i n a t i o n s t h a t
(7) m i g h t . . . c o m e u p w i t h a s u r p l u s . . . o r d e f i c i t o f t h e 2 1 q u a r t s . . .
and
(8) n i n e a n d six a r e , 1 5 . . . i f y o u t o o k t w o n i n e s a n d t w o s i x e s , y o u ' d
have 30 which
(9) w o u l d l e a v e y o u . . . a n d p o u r t h e m i n t o t h e 4 2 c o n t a i n e r , y o u ' d
h a v e a,
(10) a n o p e n s p a c e o f a , 1 2 , w h i c h m e a n s n o t h i n g . H o w a b o u t . . .
s e e . . . n o w I'm
(11) trying to think of h o w close to 42 you can get with a nine and the
six q u a n t i t i e s .
( 1 2 ) Y o u c a n g e t . . . I f o r g e t t h e s e v e n t a b l e . It's b e e n a l o n g t i m e
since I've
(13) h a d to m u l t i p l y or a n y t h i n g so y o u ' l l h a v e to g i v e me s o m e time.

Um,
( 1 4 ) n i n e t i m e s f i v e i s 4 5 . . . h m , six t i m e s s e v e n i s 4 2 , 1 t h i n k . I s that
right?"
Exp: (15) " U h huh."
Subj: (16) " O K , s o y o u c a n , u h . . . fill B w i t h C , e v e n l y . . . "
Exp: (17) "You could..."
Subj: (18) " S o , . . . i f y o u w e r e t o t a k e . . . 3 6 . . . h m , o h , u h , six t i m e s f o u r i s
2 4 . . . and if y o u , u h ,
(19) W h a t I ' m t r y i n g t o g e t r i d o f i s , i s , t h r e e q u a r t s t h e r e . . . "
Exp: (20) " G o o d . "
S u b j : (21) " S o i f y o u w e r e t o , u m . . . still 2 4 . I , I w a s t r y i n g t o t h i n k p o s -
sibly,
(22) s o m e w a y , o f . . . t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e six a n d t h e n i n e i s
three quarts. I
(23) w a s t r y i n g t o t h i n k o f . . . a w a y t o u h . . . o h , h o w a b o u t . . . y o u p u t
t h e t h r e e , six
(24) q u a r t q u a n t i t y i n t o t h e 4 2 b o t t l e , w h i c h i s 1 8 , t h e n t h e r u n off,
from
(25) p o u r i n g a n i n e i n t o a six w h i c h i s t h r e e a n d 1 8 i s 2 1 . "
Exp: (26) " G o o d . "
AN EXAMPLE O F P R O T O C O L ANALYSIS
N o w , l e t ' s e x a m i n e P r o t o c o l I i n d e t a i l a n d try t o m a k e s o m e r e a s o n a b l e
guesses about what the subject is doing.
I n h i s first s e n t e n c e , t h e s u b j e c t m e n t i o n s s o m e t h i n g t h a t a p p e a r s t o b e i r r e l e -
v a n t t o s o l v i n g t h e p r o b l e m . H e m e n t i o n s t h e fact t h a t t h e d e s i r e d a m o u n t ( 2 1
quarts) i s j u s t h a l f t h e q u a n t i t y c o n t a i n e d i n J u g B . N o w , d i v i s i o n i s a v e r y u s e f u l
operation in m a n y a l g e b r a p r o b l e m s . In this p r o b l e m , if we c o u l d d i v i d e Jug B in
half, t h e p r o b l e m w o u l d b e s o l v e d . B u t a l a s ! T h e r e i s n o d i v i s i o n o p e r a t i o n i n
water-jug p r o b l e m s . All we can do is add and subtract the quantities in Jugs A, B,
and C. W h y , t h e n , d o e s the subject notice that the d e s i r e d quantity is half of B ? T h e
simplest a n s w e r s e e m s to be that he is c o n f u s i n g water-jug p r o b l e m s (perhaps
b e c a u s e he isn't t h o r o u g h l y familiar w i t h them) w i t h the m o r e g e n e r a l class of
algebra p r o b l e m s . I f this a n s w e r i s correct, w e w o u l d e x p e c t that the subject w o u l d
stop n o t i c i n g d i v i s i o n r e l a t i o n s a s h e g a i n s m o r e e x p e r i e n c e w i t h w a t e r - j u g p r o b -
l e m s . I n fact, t h a t i s w h a t h a p p e n e d .
In line 3, the experimenter does just what the experimenter is supposed to
d o — t h a t is, he is n o n c o m m i t a l . In general, the e x p e r i m e n t e r s h o u l d a n s w e r only
essential questions and r e m i n d the subject to k e e p talking.
F r o m lines 4 a n d 5, we c a n g u e s s that the subject has s u c c e s s i v e l y a d d e d nines
t o g e t n i n e , 1 8 , 2 7 . . . a n d s i x e s t o g e t six, 1 2 , 1 8 , 2 4 . . . a n d r e a l i z e d t h a t n e i t h e r
s e q u e n c e includes 2 1 . F r o m lines 6 through 10, we can s e e that the subject b e g i n s
to consider combinations of nines and sixes w h i c h m a y be a d d e d together to obtain
interesting sums, or subtracted from the 42-quart container to obtain interesting
d i f f e r e n c e s . W h i l e c o n s i d e r i n g s u m s , t h e s u b j e c t fails t o n o t i c e t h a t t h e s u m 6 + 6
+ 9 solves the problem.
In lines 11 through 14, the subject tries to find out if 42 quarts can be obtained
by adding nines and sixes. T h e a n s w e r is positive, b u t it doesn't h e l p the subject
to find a solution. It appears to be a " b l i n d a l l e y . " In this section, the subject
indicates several times that he doesn't feel confident about multiplication.
In lines 15 and 17, the e x p e r i m e n t e r provides the subject with a small amount
o f information b y c o n f i r m i n g his u n e a s y s u s p i c i o n that six t i m e s s e v e n e q u a l s 4 2 .

On occasion, the experimenter must d e c i d e w h e t h e r or not to provide information
the subject requests. In this case, since the e x p e r i m e n t e r w a s really interested in
water j u g p r o b l e m s rather than in arithmetic, he d e c i d e d to s u p p l y an arithmetic
fact.
In l i n e s 18 a n d 19, t h e s u b j e c t realizes that if he h a d a w a y to subtract three
quarts from 24 quarts, he c o u l d s o l v e the p r o b l e m . In l i n e 20 the e x p e r i m e n t e r
appears to slip by providing the subject with approval, w h e n he w o u l d better have
r e m a i n e d s i l e n t . I n l i n e 2 1 , t h e s u b j e c t i s still t h i n k i n g o f w o r k i n g f r o m 2 4 q u a r t s .
I n l i n e 2 2 , h e d i s c o v e r s a w a y t o a d d (rather t h a n s u b t r a c t ) t h r e e q u a r t s b y p o u r i n g
A into C a n d c a t c h i n g t h e overflow. In lines 23 and 24, he d e c i d e s to w o r k from 18
q u a r t s r a t h e r t h a n 2 4 q u a r t s a n d t h e n (on l i n e 2 5 ) i m m e d i a t e l y s o l v e s t h e p r o b l e m .
N o w , let's stand b a c k from the details of the protocol to s e e if we can charac-
terize the w h o l e p r o b l e m - s o l v i n g p r o c e s s that the subject w e n t through. B e f o r e
r e a d i n g further, r e v i e w the discussion of the protocol a n d t h e n try to characterize
the p r o b l e m - s o l v i n g process yourself.
O n e w a y to characterize the problem-solving process is to describe it as a
s e a r c h for a n o p e r a t o r o r a c o m b i n a t i o n o f o p e r a t o r s t o s o l v e t h e p r o b l e m . ( I n t h i s
case, the operators are arithmetic procedures such as division and subtraction). In
F i g u r e 5 , w h e r e w e h a v e d i a g r a m m e d this search p r o c e s s , w e c a n s e e that search
p r o c e e d s , generally, from s i m p l e to c o m p l e x — t h a t is, from single operators to
c o m p l e x combinations of operators.
U p u n t i l l i n e 1 8 , t h e s u b j e c t ' s s e a r c h for a s o l u t i o n c o u l d h a v e b e e n g u i d e d b y
the p r o b l e m statement. T h a t is, b y r e a d i n g the p r o b l e m statement, the subject c o u l d
h a v e d e c i d e d that w h a t w a s n e e d e d t o s o l v e the p r o b l e m w a s s o m e c o m b i n a t i o n o f
a l g e b r a i c o p e r a t o r s . U p t o l i n e 1 8 , h e c o u l d s i m p l y b e t r y i n g o n e c o m b i n a t i o n after
a n o t h e r . W e c a l l t h i s " f o r w a r d s e a r c h " — a s e a r c h s u g g e s t e d b y t h e p r o b l e m state-
m e n t alone. In lines 18 a n d 19, h o w e v e r , the subject formulates a goal on the basis
of his difficulties in s o l v i n g the p r o b l e m . He notes that he hasn't b e e n able to get

closer to t h e a n s w e r than three quarts a n d attempts to find an operator that w i l l
subtract t h r e e quarts. T h i s goal d e p e n d s not just on the p r o b l e m statement b u t also
on the subject's e x p e r i e n c e in trying to solve the p r o b l e m — t h a t is, on his distance
from t h e goal. It is a form of m e a n s - e n d s a n a l y s i s in w h i c h t h e s u b j e c t attempts to
find a m e a n s to the e n d of r e d u c i n g his distance from the goal.
T h e w h o l e solution process then consists of
1. An initial p h a s e of forward search t h r o u g h an i n c r e a s i n g l y c o m p l e x s e q u e n c e of

operators, followed by
2. A phase of means-ends analysis in w h i c h the subject s u c c e e d s in finding a
solution.
In analyzing a protocol, we attempt to d e s c r i b e the p s y c h o l o g i c a l processes that

a s u b j e c t u s e s t o p e r f o r m a task. T o d o t h i s , i t i s u s e f u l t o b e f a m i l i a r b o t h w i t h t h e
properties of the task a n d with the p r o b l e m solver's c o m p o n e n t p s y c h o l o g i c a l
processes. In a n a l y z i n g t h e water-jug protocol a b o v e , k n o w i n g that t h e task re-
quired algebraic operators and that h u m a n p r o b l e m solvers often u s e processes of
forward search and means-ends analysis h e l p e d us to r e c o g n i z e h o w the subject had
o r g a n i z e d t h e s e p r o c e s s e s i n h i s s e a r c h for a s o l u t i o n . I n t h e s a m e w a y , w h e n w e
a n a l y z e other protocols, k n o w l e d g e o f other tasks a n d o f other p s y c h o l o g i c a l prop-
erties will be useful. T h i s is not to say that we m u s t already u n d e r s t a n d a perform-
a n c e b e f o r e w e c a n a n a l y z e it. I t i s j u s t t h a t w h e n w e d o u n d e r s t a n d s o m e t h i n g s
about the performance, we can use t h e m very profitably to learn other things.
In analyzing Protocol II, k n o w l e d g e of the p s y c h o l o g i c a l p h e n o m e n o n of set is
very helpful.
Protocol II
Problem: G i v e n J u g A , w h i c h c o n t a i n s 2 3 q t s . , J u g B , 4 9 q t s . , a n d J u g C , 3
qts., m e a s u r e out exactly 20 qts.
Subj: (1) " U h , . . . I'm adding and subtracting h e r e , "

Exp: (2) "Say what you're adding and subtracting."
Subj: (3) " O . K . W e l l , 2 3 from 4 9 . . . i s . . . u h . . . r e m i n d s m e w h e n
(4) we k e e p score w h e n we play cards. 2 6 . . . oh, OK. Er it
(5) w o u l d be easy enough. You t a k e . . . u m . . . OK. H o w do we
(6) g e t this into water and j u g s n o w ? . . . b e c a u s e y o u could take a . . .
(7) w h i c h is 23, and pour it into C w h i c h is three, there we go,
(8) pour it into C w h i c h is three, and 20 w o u l d be w h a t w o u l d g o . . .
(9) right into B . "
Exp: (10) "Good."
T h e p r o b l e m u s e d i n this protocol can b e s o l v e d i n either o f t w o w a y s . I t can b e

solved by the p r o c e d u r e B — A — 2 C , or it can be s o l v e d by the s i m p l e r p r o c e d u r e :
A — C . Just b e f o r e s o l v i n g t h i s p r o b l e m , t h e s u b j e c t w o r k e d a s e r i e s o f s i x p r o b l e m s ,
all o f w h i c h r e q u i r e d t h e p r o c e d u r e B — A — 2 C for s o l u t i o n . A s a r e s u l t , w e w o u l d
e x p e c t t h e s u b j e c t to s h o w a s e t to u s e t h e B - A - 2C p r o c e d u r e . As l i n e s 6 t h r o u g h
9 s h o w , the subject actually solves the p r o b l e m by the A — C p r o c e d u r e . H o w -
e v e r , i f w e l o o k b a c k t o l i n e s 3 a n d 4 , w e s e e t h a t t h e s u b j e c t ' s first p r o b l e m -
solving attempt w a s to subtract A from B. T h i s s u g g e s t s that he started to u s e the
B — A — 2C p r o c e d u r e e v e n t h o u g h he d i d n ' t carry it t h r o u g h . C l e a r l y , a n a l y z i n g
the protocol g i v e s u s e v i d e n c e a b o u t the subject's solution p r o c e s s that w e can't g e t
just by looking at the answer.
AGE PROBLEMS
T h e protocol of an age p r o b l e m illustrates again the usefulness of k n o w l e d g e

o f task d e m a n d s a n d c o m p o n e n t p s y c h o l o g i c a l p r o c e s s e s for u n d e r s t a n d i n g h u m a n
p e r f o r m a n c e . As in m a n y p r o b l e m s , part of the difficulty of age p r o b l e m s lies in
k e e p i n g track of r e l e v a n t information. U n l e s s p r o b l e m solvers are v e r y careful in
l a b e l i n g information, t h e y are likely to confuse a person's a g e at o n e time with the
same person's age at a different time. For example, p r o b l e m solvers w h o have only
a s i n g l e l a b e l w h i c h t h e y u s e b o t h for " M a r y ' s a g e n o w " a n d " M a r y ' s a g e
t h e n " — l e t us say " M a r y " or " M " — a r e very likely to confuse Mary's age n o w with
M a r y ' s a g e t h e n . T h i s is j u s t w h a t h a p p e n s in this a g e - p r o b l e m protocol.
Protocol III
Problem: J o h n i s n o w t w i c e a s o l d a s h e w a s w h e n M a r y w a s 3 y e a r s o l d e r
than he is now, but he is only half as old as Mary is at present. N o w h o w
o l d are t h e y ?
Subj: (1 " U r n , u m , J o h n i s n o w t w i c e a s o l d a s h e w a s w h e n M a r y w a s
(2. t h r e e y e a r s o l d e r t h a n h e i s n o w . B u t h e i s o n l y h a l f a s o l d a s
Mary
(3. A t p r e s e n t . U m , u m , t h r e e y e a r s o l d e r i s t h e o n l y n u m b e r s u p -
plied,
(4: s o I ' m g o i n g t o start w o r k i n g f r o m t h e r e . I g u e s s , a n d u h , . . . "
Exp: (5; " W h a t a r e y o u t h i n k i n g ? "
Subj: (6 " I g e t a b s o l u t e l y n o t h i n g f r o m t h o s e q u e s t i o n s .
(7 " I a m d r a w i n g a b l a n k a t t h e m o m e n t , u m , I a m t r y i n g t o sort o u t
John
(s; and Mary, I guess, here, because, the words don't lend themsel-
v e s to
(9 b e d e c i p h e r e d into, like, t w o neat little John and M a r y c o l u m n s ,
um,
(10 a n d it's h a r d . O K . J o h n i s t w i c e a s o l d . . . n o w . . . t h a n w h e n h e
was w h e n
(11 M a r y w a s three years older than him . . . O H w o w ! U m , but h e i s
only half
(12 as old as Mary at p r e s e n t . . . so, u m , John e q u a l s , u m , n o w I'm
trying
(13 t o t h i n k o f a . . . I d o n ' t k n o w w h y i t j u s t o c c u r r e d t o m e that
m a y b e if
(14 I p l u g g e d John and M a r y and the information into little, little,
you
(is; k n o w , J o h n e q u a l s M a r y p l u s t h r e e , o r s o m e t h i n g l i k e that, y o u
know,
(ie; little X , Y ? "
Exp: (17 "Uh Huh."
Subj: (18 " I don't k n o w w h a t y o u call t h e m . "
Exp: (19 "Equations."
S u b j : (20 " E q u a t i o n s . O K . G o t to w a r n y o u , I f l u n k e d m a t h in sixth grade.
So um,
(2i; u m , A h . . . John i s n o w t w i c e a s old a s h e w a s w h e n Mary w a s
three years
(22 o l d e r t h a n h e i s n o w . . . O K , s o J o h n e q u a l s . . . u m , M a r y a n d
three . . . , which
(23 doesn't do me any good, and he is only half as old as Mary at
present,
(24) s o I h a v e t o k n o w h o w m u c h J o h n i s w o r t h first, h e r e , a n d ,
u h , . . . Mary is
(25) t h r e e y e a r s o l d e r t h a n h e i s . . . , a n d h a l f a s o l d a s M a r y a t p r e s -
ent. U m ,
(26) M a r y i s t h r e e y e a r s o l d e r t h a n h e i s n o w , b u t h e i s o n l y h a l f a s
o l d as
(27) M a r y a t p r e s e n t . . . s o h e h a s t o b e u m . . . M a r y i s t h r e e y e a r s
older than
(28) h e i s n o w . . . a n d M a r y i s t w i c e h i s a g e . T h e n h e ' s g o t t o b e t h r e e
years
(29) o l d . "
Exp: (30) " A l l r i g h t . "
ANALYSIS OF THE PROBLEM
T o s o l v e this p r o b l e m , i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o d i s t i n g u i s h f o u r q u a n t i t i e s — J o h n ' s a g e
n o w (JN), J o h n ' s a g e t h e n (JT), M a r y ' s a g e n o w ( M N ) , a n d M a r y ' s a g e t h e n ( M T ) .
T h r e e equations can b e d e r i v e d from the p r o b l e m statement.
JN = 2 JT [John i s t w i c e a s o l d n o w a s h e w a s t h e n . ]
MT = JN + 3 [Mary t h e n w a s three years o l d e r than John is now.]
JN = V2 MN [John n o w is h a l f as o l d as M a r y n o w . ]
I n addition, b e c a u s e w e k n o w that John and M a r y a g e a t the s a m e rate, w e can

derive a fourth equation:
JN — JT = MN — MT [The difference b e t w e e n John's age n o w and John's

age then is the same as the difference b e t w e e n
Mary's age n o w and Mary's age then.]
A r m e d w i t h t h e s e e q u a t i o n s , t h o s e a d e p t a t a l g e b r a c a n d e t e r m i n e that J o h n ' s a g e
n o w i s six a n d M a r y ' s a g e n o w i s 1 2 .
N o w , let's s e e w h a t our subject has d o n e . F r o m lines 1 5 through 29, she
frequently confuses John's and Mary's ages n o w with John's and Mary's ages then.
I n fact, n o w h e r e i n t h e p r o t o c o l i s t h e r e a n y e v i d e n c e t h a t s h e e v e r m a k e s t h e
now-then distinction. In lines 27 and 28, she derives t w o equations:
M a r y = J o h n + 3, a n d
Mary = 2 x John
T h e s e c o n d o n e i s c o r r e c t , b u t t h e first i s n o t b e c a u s e i t c o n f u s e s M a r y ' s a g e t h e n
with Mary's age now. T h e subject then solves these equations and concludes,
incorrectly, that John's a g e n o w is three.
P R O T O C O L ANALYSIS APPLIED T O W R I T I N G
T h e first 2 7 l i n e s o f a w r i t i n g p r o t o c o l , a b o u t 1 0 p e r c e n t o f t h e full p r o t o c o l , are

r e p r i n t e d h e r e . T h e w r i t e r w a s a v o l u n t e e r w h o k n e w that s h e w a s t o e n g a g e i n a
w r i t i n g s t u d y for a b o u t a n h o u r . S h e k n e w t h a t s h e w o u l d b e a s k e d t o " t h i n k a l o u d "
as she p r o d u c e d a short essay. S h e d i d not k n o w the topic, h o w e v e r , until she
a r r i v e d for t h e t a p e r e c o r d i n g s e s s i o n .
Protocol IV
Problem: W r i t e a s h o r t e s s a y o n w h y y o u w r i t e p a p e r s a t C a r n e g i e - M e l l o n
University.
S: (1) " O K , u m , t h e i s s u e i s m o t i v a t i o n a n d t h e p r o b l e m o f w r i t i n g
papers. For
(2) m e , m o t i v a t i o n h e r e a t C a r n e g i e - M e l l o n i s t h e a c a d e m i c p r e s s u r e
a n d g r a d e s that
(3) a r e i n v o l v e d , s o I'd b e t t e r p u t t h a t d o w n . . . a n d g r a d e s . . . u m , t h e y
kind of
(4) c o m p e l m e , t h a t ' s r e a l l y w h a t m o t i v a t i o n is, u m , k i n d o f t o i m p e l o r
start or
(5) a , m o m e n t u m . ( P a u s e ) O K , I s u p p o s e f r o m t h e a c a d e m i c p r e s s u r e
of the grades,
(6) I ' m n o t s u r e w h e t h e r , I t h i n k p e r s o n a l s a t i s f a c t i o n i s i m p o r t a n t , b u t
I'm not
(7) s u r e w h e t h e r t h a t s t e m s f r o m a c a d e m i c p r e s s u r e s a n d g r a d e s , o r
whether—I
(8) w o u l d s a y p e r s o n a l s a t i s f a c t i o n i s a m a j o r i s s u e . O K , u m . O h . "
E: (9) " W h a t a r e y o u t h i n k i n g ? "
S: (10) " I ' m t r y i n g t o t h i n k o f t h e first s e n t e n c e t o start w i t h . U m , m a y b e
something
(11) l i k e , p e r s o n a l satisfaction is the major m o t i v a t i n g force in the writ-
ing of m y
(12) p a p e r s a n d reports. O K , I'm trying to think o f . . . O K , I w a n t to
s o m e h o w g e t it into
(13) the a c a d e m i c pressures n o w . U m , w e l l m a y b e not s o soon. O K . N o t
o n l y do I g e t
(14) satisfaction from my g r a d e s , b u t I also g e t satisfaction in turning in
something
(15) that is g o o d quality. So, if I'm h a p p y w h e n I write a g o o d paper, it
really doesn't
( 1 6 ) m a t t e r w h a t k i n d o f g r a d e I g e t b a c k o n it, i f I ' m h a p p y w i t h it. S o ,
um, um,
( 1 7 ) l e t ' s s e e . U m , w h a t a r e t h e — I ' m t h i n k i n g of, I ' m t r y i n g t o r e l a t e
personal
(18) satisfaction b e t w e e n a c a d e m i c p r e s s u r e a n d t h e g r a d e s , b u t I'm not
really sure
( 1 9 ) h o w t o d o it, h o w t o b r a n c h it. I ' m r e a l l y h a v i n g a h a r d t i m e g e t t i n g
started.
(20) W e l l , m a y b e I'll j u s t w r i t e a b u n c h o f i d e a s d o w n , a n d m a y b e try
t o c o n n e c t t h e m after
(21) I finish. O K . W h e n I feel that I've w r i t t e n a h i g h quality, a n d I p u t
in paren-
(22) t h e s e s , p r o f e s s i o n a l , p a p e r , u m , t o b e g r a d e d , w h e n I s u b m i t it, t h e
grade is not
(23) a l w a y s n e c e s s a r y for t h e t e a c h e r t o h a v e t h e s a m e . O K , t h a t ' s k i n d
Of ;
(24) I'll c h e c k w i t h t h a t o n e . O K , a n d — l e t ' s s e e w h a t e l s e . U m , b u t

(25) o f c o u r s e , t h e r e a s o n I ' m w r i t i n g t h e p a p e r i n t h e first p l a c e i s for
the grade,
(26) o r t o r e l a t e t h a t b a c k . T h o s e t w o i d e a s a r e v e r y i n t e r l o c k e d —
m a y b e that's not
(27) t h e r i g h t t e r m . "
Analysis of t h e P r o t o c o l
In a n a l y z i n g this protocol fragment, we w i l l call attention to just o n e class of

processes which we consider especially significant—understanding processes.
W h a t we refer to h e r e as u n d e r s t a n d i n g processes are w h a t Stoehr (1967) calls
"thinking," and V a n Nostrand (1976) describes as a " l e a r n i n g process." E v i d e n c e

that u n d e r s t a n d i n g p r o c e s s e s a r e a t w o r k m a y b e s e e n i n c h a n g e s i n t h e w r i t e r ' s
understanding of the topic as writing p r o c e e d s . In lines 1 through 3, the writer
identifies motivation w i t h grades. In lines 6 and 7, she introduces the idea of
p e r s o n a l s a t i s f a c t i o n b u t i s n o t a t all s u r e t h a t t h i s i s a s o u r c e o f s a t i s f a c t i o n d i s t i n c t
from g r a d e s . In lines 8 t h r o u g h 1 2 , p e r s o n a l satisfaction is g i v e n a v e r y important
role, b u t it is not clear h o w the writer relates it to grades. In lines 13 through 15, two
sources of personal satisfaction are identified: grades a n d the production of high-
quality work. A relation b e t w e e n the t w o sources of satisfaction is specified in lines
15 and 16 and again in lines 21 through 23. T h e relation is that if the w o r k is of good
q u a l i t y , a g r a d e i s n o t n e c e s s a r y for s a t i s f a c t i o n . I n l i n e s 2 4 a n d 2 5 , a c o n t r a d i c t o r y
r e l a t i o n i s n o t e d — t h a t i s , t h a t g r a d e s are t h e i n i t i a l m o t i v a t o r for all e s s a y w r i t i n g .
I n l i n e s 2 6 a n d 2 7 , t h e s e r e l a t i o n s are d e s c r i b e d a s " i n t e r l o c k e d " r a t h e r t h a n a s
contradictory. T h e contradiction b e t w e e n the relations is r e c o g n i z e d later in the
p r o t o c o l . I n l a r g e m e a s u r e , t h e final e s s a y i s c o n c e r n e d w i t h t h e r e s o l u t i o n o f t h i s
conflict.
T h e C o m p l e t e d Essay
Personal satisfaction is the major motivating force in the writing of my papers
and reports. T h e emphasis on 4.0's here at C a r n e g i e - M e l l o n University causes
grades to b e c o m e an instinctive motivator for myself. Acquiring good grades does,
in fact, g i v e me personal satisfaction.
T h e initial motivator in the outset of writing a paper is the fact that a grade will
be attached to it upon completion. I feel that my role as a student requires all of my
efforts to be put forth into course work, w h i c h includes the writing of papers.
After I b e g i n writing a paper, the grade emphasis diminishes and a higher level
of personal satisfaction takes over. W h e n I feel that I've written a high-quality or
professional paper to be submitted for grading, it is not mandatory for the teacher
to have the same opinion. But of course, this somewhat contradicts my earlier
statement that the motivation for writing paper is to achieve the ultimate g o a l — a
good grade.
T h u s , the combination of the grade "initiator" and later a higher l e v e l of per-
sonal satisfaction is what motivates me to write my college papers and reports.
In the course of writing the essay, the subject's understanding of the topic
c h a n g e d r a d i c a l l y . A t first, s h e b e l i e v e d h e r m o t i v a t i o n h a d a s i n g l e s o u r c e . B y t h e
end of the e s s a y s h e r e c o g n i z e d that it h a d t w o s o u r c e s w h i c h w e r e related in a
complex w a y . W r i t i n g in this case clearly i n v o l v e d u n d e r s t a n d i n g processes.
P R O T O C O L A N A L Y S I S , M O R E GENERALLY C O N S I D E R E D
As we h a v e seen, protocol analysis can be u s e d as an aid in understanding a

w i d e variety of tasks from s i m p l e p r o b l e m s o l v i n g by a p e s to c o m p l e x performances
such as chess p l a y i n g a n d w r i t i n g by h u m a n s . T y p i c a l l y t h o u g h , protocols are
incomplete. M a n y p r o c e s s e s o c c u r d u r i n g the p e r f o r m a n c e of a task w h i c h the
subject can't or d o e s n ' t report. T h e psychologist's task in a n a l y z i n g a protocol is to
take t h e i n c o m p l e t e r e c o r d p r o v i d e d b y t h e p r o t o c o l , t o g e t h e r w i t h h i s k n o w l e d g e
of human capabilities, a n d to infer from t h e s e a m o d e l of the u n d e r l y i n g p s y c h o l o g -
ical p r o c e s s e s b y w h i c h t h e s u b j e c t p e r f o r m s t h e task.
A n a l y z i n g a protocol is l i k e f o l l o w i n g t h e tracks of a p o r p o i s e . O c c a s i o n a l l y , t h e
p o r p o i s e r e v e a l s i t s e l f b y b r e a k i n g t h e s u r f a c e o f t h e s e a . Its b r i e f s u r f a c i n g s a r e l i k e
t h e g l i m p s e s o f t h e u n d e r l y i n g m e n t a l p r o c e s s w h i c h t h e p r o t o c o l affords u s . B e -
t w e e n surfacings, the mental process, like the porpoise, runs d e e p and silent. O u r
task is to infer the c o u r s e of the p r o c e s s from t h e s e b r i e f traces.
S o m e h a v e s h o w n c o n c e r n that thinking-aloud protocols m a y distort or inter-
fere with the mental processes w h i c h we want to observe. Sometimes subjects
c o m p l a i n that it is hard to think a b o u t d o i n g the task a n d to talk at the same time.
W h i l e t h e s e difficulties typically disappear with a little practice, t h e y force us to
take the questions of distortion and interference seriously. Fortunately, Ericsson
and Simon (1979) h a v e p r o v i d e d a thorough and thoughtful r e v i e w of the e v i d e n c e
o n this issue. T h e y h a v e f o u n d that:
J. t h e r e i s n o e v i d e n c e t h a t t h i n k i n g - a l o u d p r o t o c o l s c o l l e c t e d u n d e r t h e sorts o f
conditions w e d e s c r i b e d a b o v e distort o r interfere w i t h subjects' thinking w h e n
they are performing tasks; and
2. t h i n k i n g - a l o u d protocols v e r y c l o s e l y reflect the t h o u g h t processes that o c c u r
d u r i n g task p e r f o r m a n c e .
H o w e v e r , t h e y a l s o c o n c l u d e t h a t , u n d e r special circumstances, t h i n k i n g - a l o u d c a n
interfere with the subjects' thought processes. In the usual thinking-aloud proce-
dure, the e x p e r i m e n t e r asks the subjects to say w h a t e v e r is on their m i n d s . If
instead of t h e usual p r o c e d u r e , t h e e x p e r i m e n t e r tells t h e subjects w h a t to talk
about, they m a y be forced to p a y attention to things t h e y w o u l d ordinarily h a v e
i g n o r e d . S u p p o s e , for e x a m p l e , t h a t w e g a v e s u b j e c t s a n u m b e r p r o b l e m a n d a s k e d
t h e m t o t e l l u s e v e r y t i m e t h e y t h o u g h t o f a n o d d n u m b e r w h i l e s o l v i n g it. O r d i n a r -
i l y , t h e y m i g h t p a y n o a t t e n t i o n a t all t o w h e t h e r a n u m b e r w a s o d d o r e v e n i n
solving the p r o b l e m . With our instructions, not only must they pay special attention
t o o d d n u m b e r s , b u t t h e y m a y a l s o d e v e l o p t h e s n e a k i n g s u s p i c i o n that o d d
n u m b e r s are i m p o r t a n t for t h e s o l u t i o n w h e t h e r t h e y a r e o r n o t .
We c o n c l u d e that as l o n g as we avoid telling our subjects w h a t to think about,
thinking-aloud protocols can p r o v i d e us w i t h a fairly clear, u n d i s t o r t e d w i n d o w into

human thinking processes.
PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
A l t h o u g h we h a v e d e s c r i b e d protocol analysis as a research tool, it is important

for y o u t o r e a l i z e t h a t y o u c a n a d a p t i t for y o u r p e r s o n a l u s e . I m a g i n e t h a t y o u a r e
having trouble with a particular type of p r o b l e m either in school or at work. It might
b e a w r i t i n g p r o b l e m o r a p r o b l e m i n , s a y , a c c o u n t i n g o r l a w . Y o u h a v e r e a d all t h e
available instruction manuals, and you have asked p e o p l e to h e l p you. Unfortu-
n a t e l y , t h e i r a d v i c e j u s t c o n f u s e s y o u . T h e y s a y t h i n g s l i k e , " O h , s u r e . It's e a s y . Y o u
j u s t r e a r t i c u l a t e t h e f r a m e s , a d j u s t for m a r g i n a l l i q u i d i t y a t c o m p o u n d i n t e r e s t , a n d
stir u n t i l s l i g h t l y t h i c k e n e d . "
H o w can you get out of your d i l e m m a ? O n e v e r y effective thing y o u can do is
to watch an expert solve one of these problems. An ideally cooperative expert
w o u l d let you tape record a thinking-aloud protocol. H o w e v e r , y o u may have to
satisfy y o u r s e l f j u s t w a t c h i n g h i m o r h e r s c r i b b l i n g o u t t h e s u c c e s s i v e p a r t s o f t h e
solution. If you can, of course, you should take notes so you can r e m e m b e r the
s e q u e n c e o f e v e n t s . P e r h a p s all y o u w i l l b e a b l e t o d o i s t o w r i t e a s e q u e n c e o f
numbers to indicate the order in w h i c h notes w e r e scribbled on the expert's scratch
pad. In any case, just w a t c h i n g another person solving a p r o b l e m can be remarkably
h e l p f u l . I n fact, W h i m b e y a n d L o c h h e a d ( 1 9 8 0 ) r e c o m m e n d t h a t t h i n k i n g a l o u d b e
u s e d as a routine classroom exercise to teach p r o b l e m - s o l v i n g skills.
In the next section, we p r e s e n t t w o rather difficult p r o b l e m s together with a
detailed description of h o w some problem solvers successfully solved them. T r y to
solve each p r o b l e m before reading the solution. If y o u m a n a g e to solve the prob-
l e m , c o m p a r e y o u r s o l u t i o n t o t h e o n e i n t h e t e x t . I f y o u c a n ' t s o l v e it, try t o
understand h o w the p r o b l e m solver w h o s e solution process is d e s c r i b e d in the text
a v o i d e d or o v e r c a m e the difficulties that y o u e x p e r i e n c e d .
T h e Handshaking P r o b l e m *
A social psychologist was interested in the custom of handshaking. He noticed
that some p e o p l e are more inclined than others to shake hands w h e n they are
introduced. O n e e v e n i n g w h e n he and his wife had j o i n e d four other couples at a
party, he took advantage of the occasion to collect data. He asked each of the other
nine p e o p l e at the party h o w many p e o p l e they had shaken hands with during the
introductions. He r e c e i v e d a different answer, from zero through eight, from each
of the nine people. You can assume that husbands and w i v e s don't shake hands
with each other during introductions, and, of course, p e o p l e don't shake hands with
themselves. G i v e n this information, find out h o w often the psychologist's wife
shook hands.
M a n y p e o p l e find i t hard t o b e l i e v e that this p r o b l e m can b e s o l v e d w i t h o n l y

t h e little i n f o r m a t i o n g i v e n , b u t i t c a n . T r y it.
W h e n I first e n c o u n t e r e d t h i s p r o b l e m , I h a d n o i d e a h o w I w a s g o i n g t o s o l v e
it. D e s p i t e t h i s , I d e c i d e d t o j u m p i n b y t r y i n g t o r e p r e s e n t w h a t I k n e w i n a
systematic w a y . I c h o s e t h e matrix s h o w n in F i g u r e 6 to r e p r e s e n t t h e facts.
Next, I d e c i d e d arbitrarily (gap-filling decision) to r e p r e s e n t the person w h o
shook h a n d s e i g h t times as H I . E q u a l l y arbitrarily, I a s s u m e d that that p e r s o n w a s
t h e h u s b a n d i n c o u p l e 1 . M y o n l y j u s t i f i c a t i o n for m a k i n g t h i s p a r t i c u l a r d e c i s i o n
w a s that I h a d to m a k e some d e c i s i o n in o r d e r to p r o c e e d . I e n t e r e d X ' s in t h e first
r o w a n d first c o l u m n i n F i g u r e 7 for e a c h p e r s o n H I s h o o k h a n d s w i t h . T h e z e r o s
indicate that H I shook h a n d s n e i t h e r w i t h h i m s e l f nor w i t h his w i f e .
A t this p o i n t , j u m p i n g i n y i e l d e d t h e first i m p o r t a n t i n s i g h t i n t o t h e p r o b l e m .
* T h i s p r o b l e m was d e s c r i b e d to me by R. Bhaskar.
Since e v e r y o n e but Hi's wife shook hands at least once, she is the only person w h o
c o u l d h a v e s h a k e n h a n d s z e r o t i m e s . S o I f i l l e d i n z e r o s for W l r o w a n d c o l u m n .
N e x t I arbitrarily c h o s e H2 to be the person w h o shook hands s e v e n times. I
inserted zeros in the table to indicate that H2 shook h a n d s n e i t h e r with h i m s e l f nor
his wife, and I put X's in H2's row and c o l u m n to indicate that he shook hands with
t h e r e m a i n i n g six p e o p l e as s h o w n in F i g u r e 8.
N o w , jumping in led me to a second discovery. E v e r y o n e but H2's wife had
shaken hands twice. So she was the only person w h o could h a v e shaken hands just
o n c e . T h i s d i s c o v e r y s u g g e s t e d a p a t t e r n . I n t h e first t w o c o u p l e s , e i g h t w a s p a i r e d
w i t h z e r o a n d s e v e n w i t h o n e . I h y p o t h e s i z e d t h a t i n t h e r e m a i n i n g c o u p l e s , six
w o u l d b e p a i r e d w i t h t w o , f i v e w i t h t h r e e , a n d f o u r w i t h four. W o r k i n g o u t t h e
details ( e x e c u t i n g the solution) p r o v e d that the h y p o t h e s i s w a s correct.
It w a s o n l y at this p o i n t that I h a d the critical fact that I n e e d e d to s o l v e the
Couple 1 Couple 2 Couple 3 Couple 4 Couple 5
HI Wl H2 W2 H3 W3 H4 W4 H5 W5
HI 0 0 X X X X X X X X
Couple 1
Wl 0
H2 X
Couple 2
W2 X
H3 X
Couple 3
W3 X
H4 X
Couple 4
W4 X
H5 X
Couple 5
W5 X '
Figure 7. S t e p O n e in Solving t h e Handshaking Problem

Couple 1 Couple 2 Couple 3 Couple 4 Couple 5
HI Wl H2 W2 H3 W3 H4 W4 H5 W5
HI 0 0 X X X X X X X X
Couple 1
Wl 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
H2 X 0 0 0 X X X X X X
Couple 2
W2 X 0 0
H3 X 0 X
Couple 3
W3 X 0 X
H4 X 0 X
Couple 4
W4 X 0 X
H5 X 0 X
W5 X 0 X
Figure 8. P r o c e e d i n g to Fill in the Matrix to Solve t h e Handshaking Problem
p r o b l e m — t h e f a c t t h a t f o u r w a s p a i r e d w i t h four. T h e s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g i s t a s k e d t h e
other p e o p l e h o w often t h e y h a d s h a k e n h a n d s , and f o u n d only o n e p e r s o n w h o h a d
shaken hands four times. H e , himself, must be the other person w h o shook hands
four t i m e s . W e c a n c o n c l u d e t h e n t h a t h i s w i f e s h o o k h a n d s f o u r t i m e s .
This p r o b l e m demonstrates as w e l l as any I k n o w the v a l u e of j u m p i n g into a
p r o b l e m a n d m a k i n g g a p - f i l l i n g d e c i s i o n s i n s o l v i n g w h a t for m e a t l e a s t w a s a . very
ill-defined problem.
T h e Christmas T r e e P r o b l e m *
Arrange 10 Christmas trees in five straight rows of four trees each. Again, try to
solve the problem before reading further.
W e will d e s c r i b e h o w t w o subjects s o l v e d this p r o b l e m i n similar b u t slightly

different w a y s . P r o b l e m solver # 1 a p p r o a c h e d the p r o b l e m cautiously. First, she
asked the e x p e r i m e n t e r if it w a s important that the trees w e r e C h r i s t m a s trees rather
t h a n oaks o r m a p l e s . T h e e x p e r i m e n t e r a s s u r e d h e r t h a t t h e t y p e o f t r e e w a s n o t
r e l e v a n t . N e x t , s h e w a s c o n c e r n e d t h a t t h e p r o b l e m m i g h t i n v o l v e s o m e sort o f t r i c k
in representation, e.g., that t h e n u m b e r s be r e p r e s e n t e d as R o m a n n u m e r a l s , so that
"five rows of four" might be five lines making up the R o m a n numeral IV as b e l o w :
IV
A g a i n , the e x p e r i m e n t e r r u l e d out this possibility.
Subject # 2 , less cautiously, s i m p l y a s s u m e d that the p r o b l e m i n v o l v e d no such
c a t c h e s . F o r t u n a t e l y for h i m , i t d i d n ' t .
A t this s t a g e i n p r o b l e m s o l v i n g , b o t h s u b j e c t s r e c o g n i z e d t h a t a r r a n g i n g t e n
trees in five r o w s of four r e q u i r i n g p u t t i n g s o m e trees in m o r e than o n e row. To
accomplish this, b o t h settled d o w n to arranging and rearranging dots on p a p e r (see
below).
* T h i s problem was d e s c r i b e d t o m e b y C . Berkenkotter.

• •• • • • • ••
• • • • • • • •
• •• • • • • •
B o t h s u b j e c t s s t a r t e d b y c o n s i d e r i n g r e c t a n g u l a r a r r a y s first a n d t h e n p r o - \
c e e d e d to experiment with triangles. W h e n these early attempts failed to yield a
quick solution, both subjects attempted to change the representation of the problem
by r e d e f i n i n g " r o w . " B o t h a r g u e d ( i n d e p e n d e n t l y ) that a r o w of five c o u l d be
v i e w e d as t w o rows of four as b e l o w :
Row 1 x
After s e v e r a l u n s u c c e s s f u l tries, S u b j e c t # 1 a b a n d o n e d this approach, b u t S u b -

ject #2 persisted and proposed the following solution.
T h e e x p e r i m e n t e r a s k e d S u b j e c t # 2 t o s e a r c h for a m o r e e l e g a n t s o l u t i o n .
B o t h s u b j e c t s t h e n r e t u r n e d t o t h e first p r o b l e m r e p r e s e n t a t i o n — t h e o n e i n -
v o l v i n g non-overlapping rows. After considerable experimentation, Subject #1 pro-
d u c e d this solution.
S u b j e c t # 2 r e e x a m i n e d t h e p r o b l e m s t a t e m e n t . W h i l e p r e v i o u s l y h e h a d at-
t e n d e d m o s t s p e c i f i c a l l y to " f i v e rows of four," n o w he s h i f t e d h i s a t t e n t i o n to "five
r o w s o f f o u r . " T h i s c h a n g e i n e m p h a s i s l e d h i m t o s e a r c h for i n t e r e s t i n g f i g u r e s w i t h
f i v e p a r t s . T h i s s e a r c h s o o n t u r n e d u p t h e star w h i c h s u g g e s t e d S u b j e c t * 2 ' s
solution.
FOUR.
THE STRUCTURE O F H U M A N
MEMORY
E a c h , o f u s h a s s e v e r a l m e m o r i e s w h i c h h o l d d i f f e r e n t k i n d s o f m a t e r i a l for
different lengths of time. F o r e x a m p l e , we h a v e a sensory m e m o r y w h i c h can hold
a n i m a g e o f 1 0 t o 1 2 l e t t e r s b u t only for a q u a r t e r o f a s e c o n d . W e h a v e a s h o r t - t e r m
m e m o r y w h i c h w i l l h o l d a b o u t s e v e n n u m b e r s o r l e t t e r s for r o u g h l y 1 5 s e c o n d s , a n d
we have a long-term m e m o r y w h i c h will hold great quantities of information—such
as our k n o w l e d g e of a l a n g u a g e — f o r many, m a n y years. In this book, we will be
c o n c e r n e d p r i m a r i l y w i t h t h e s e last t w o m e m o r i e s — t h e short-term memory, o r
STM, a n d t h e long-term memory, or LTM. —
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN STM A N D LTM
F i g u r e 1 p r o v i d e s u s w i t h a f r a m e w o r k for u n d e r s t a n d i n g h u m a n m e m o r y .
M e s s a g e s , r e c e i v e d m o s t l y b y e y e o r e a r , a r e s t o r e d for v e r y s h o r t p e r i o d s o f t i m e
REHEARSAL
SENSORY
MEMORY
TION
INCOMING SHORT- \ \ V LONG-

1
i
INFORMATION VERY TERM / TERM
<
SHORT- MEMORY MEMORY
TERM
Figure 1. A F r a m e w o r k for U n d e r s t a n d i n g H u m a n M e m o r y
i n s e n s o r y s t o r e s . I f w e a t t e n d t o t h e m , t h e m e s s a g e s w i l l b e t r a n s f e r r e d t o short-
t e r m m e m o r y . O t h e r w i s e t h e y a r e lost. A t a p a r t y w e m a y h e a r s e v e r a l c o n v e r s a t i o n s
g o i n g o n a t t h e s a m e t i m e , all o f w h i c h a r e b e i n g d u m p e d i n t o o u r s e n s o r y store.
Usually, we pay attention to just one conversation, a n d are conscious of the others
only as a b a c k g r o u n d b u z z . T h e y n e v e r enter our short-term m e m o r y and we h a v e

n o i d e a , e i t h e r a t t h e t i m e o r later, w h a t t h e y a r e a b o u t .
O n c e the m e s s a g e has e n t e r e d short-term m e m o r y , w e can k e e p i t there b y
r e p e a t i n g i t t o o u r s e l v e s — t h a t is, b y r e h e a r s a l . O t h e r w i s e i t w i l l b e l o s t w i t h i n a f e w
seconds.
Later in this chapter, we will discuss h o w m e s s a g e s are transferred to long-term
m e m o r y by a process called elaborative rehearsal.
SHORT-TERM MEMORY
A g o o d w a y to understand the properties of short-term m e m o r y is to test

s o m e o n e ' s m e m o r y s p a n . T a b l e 1 p r o v i d e s lists o f r a n d o m n u m b e r s y o u c a n u s e for
this p u r p o s e .
T a b l e 1 . R a n d o m N u m b e r s for M e m o r y Span Test
Length Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
4 08 24 12 7 9 8 2 6 9
5 4 1 6 2 3 1 4 6 0 3 14 508
6 9 0 7 8 96 7 2 3 4 95 2 4 1 2 7 9
7 3 0 7 12 8 3 8 4 9 2 6 0 7 6 4 1 3 2 6 1
8 5 4 3 7 5 9 8 0 6 9 7 8 3 5 1 7 0 6 2 9 4 8 3 8
9 42 1 6 9 2 108 53 1 8 092 92 9 0 8 13 5 8 0 1
10 5 4 6 7 4 0 2 1 9 3 1 5 6 8 2 4 0 5 1 2 4 2 8 6 5 1 3 9 1 2
11 8 5 7 2 9 6 1 5 3 5 8 6 8 3 0 9 7 4 6 3 5 7 4 7 9 0 3 8 6 8 5 3 5
12 2 7 6 0 8 1 4 9 3 6 04 0 1 8 2 4 9 3 2 0 7 6 3 3 94 263 94 1 806
First, find a w i l l i n g subject—ideally a friend w h o really doesn't care h o w the

test c o m e s out. D o n ' t test c h i l d r e n o r p e o p l e w h o m i g h t b e c o n c e r n e d i f t h e y d i d n ' t
d o w e l l . N e x t , e x p l a i n t o t h e s u b j e c t t h a t y o u a r e g o i n g t o r e a d lists o f n u m b e r s t o
h i m a n d t h a t a s s o o n a s y o u f i n i s h r e a d i n g , h e s h o u l d try t o s a y t h e l i s t j u s t a s h e
h e a r d i t — t h e s a m e n u m b e r s i n t h e s a m e o r d e r . K e e p y o u r w a t c h i n front o f y o u a n d
read the n u m b e r s s t e a d i l y a n d w i t h o u t e m p h a s i s , a t t h e rate o f o n e n u m b e r p e r
s e c o n d . S t a r t w i t h t h e s h o r t e s t list a n d say, " N o w I ' m g o i n g t o r e a d y o u f o u r
n u m b e r s : 2 . . . 7 . . . 1 . . . 4 . " Y o u r s u b j e c t s h o u l d t h e n try t o r e p e a t t h e list. N e x t
p r o c e e d to five n u m b e r s , six n u m b e r s , a n d so on. If t h e s u b j e c t has t r o u b l e w i t h a
l i s t o f s e v e n o r e i g h t n u m b e r s , d o n ' t f o r c e h i m t o try all t h e lists u p t o 1 2 . T h a t w i l l
only p r o d u c e m a s s i v e frustration. Stop w h e n the subject has m i s s e d t w o o r three
lists in a r o w .
M e m o r y s p a n s t u d i e s u s u a l l y r e q u i r e the s u b j e c t t o w o r k t h r o u g h several sets
o f lists l i k e t h o s e i n T a b l e 1 . T y p i c a l l y , t h e s u b j e c t g e t s t h e v e r y s h o r t lists r i g h t 1 0 0
p e r c e n t o f t h e t i m e a n d t h e v e r y l o n g lists z e r o p e r c e n t o f t h e t i m e . T h e s u b j e c t ' s
m e m o r y span is the l e n g t h of the list that he can r e p e a t correctly 50 p e r c e n t of the
t i m e . A t y p i c a l m e m o r y s p a n for a d u l t s i s b e t w e e n s e v e n a n d e i g h t n u m b e r s . I f w e
p e r f o r m e d the m e m o r y - s p a n test u s i n g letters, w e w o u l d get a b o u t the s a m e results
a s for n u m b e r s . T h e a v e r a g e m e m o r y s p a n for l e t t e r s i s a b o u t 7 . 2 .
Memory "Chunks"
T h e m e m o r y s p a n for f a m i l i a r w o r d s i s a b i t l e s s t h a n t h a t f o r l e t t e r s — 5 . 8 6 .
H o w e v e r , this span i s surprisingly large w h e n w e c o n s i d e r h o w m a n y letters are
c o n t a i n e d i n 5.86 w o r d s . A n a v e r a g e w o r d has a b o u t five letters. W h e n p e o p l e
r e m e m b e r f i v e o r six w o r d s , t h e y a r e r e m e m b e r i n g 2 5 o r 3 0 l e t t e r s — a n u m b e r far
b e y o n d t h e i r m e m o r y s p a n for l e t t e r s .
The Structure of H u m a n M e m o r y 73
W h y can p e o p l e r e m e m b e r so m a n y more letters w h e n t h e y are c o m b i n e d in

w o r d s t h a n w h e n t h e y a r e p r e s e n t e d s e p a r a t e l y ? T h e r e a s o n i s t h a t w e s t o r e infor-
m a t i o n in " c h u n k s . " A c h u n k is a p a c k a g e of i n f o r m a t i o n t h a t is t r e a t e d as a u n i t .
L e t t e r s a r e s o m e t i m e s t r e a t e d a s u n i t s a n d s o m e t i m e s n o t . W h e n l e t t e r s are p r e -
s e n t e d in an u n r e l a t e d w a y as in the l i s t X Z L P T R , e a c h letter acts as an i n d e p e n d e n t
u n i t . T h u s t h i s l i s t w o u l d b e r e m e m b e r e d a s t h e six c h u n k s " X , " " Z , " " L , " " P , " " T , "
and " R . " W h e n letters are c o m b i n e d into familiar w o r d s , as in the list
PEACH MAP RIVER FLIGHT
they don't function as individual units. T h e s e 19 letters function as four units and
would be remembered as the chunks " p e a c h , " " m a p , " "river," and "flight." Such
observations l e d G e o r g e M i l l e r (1956) to c o n c l u d e that the capacity of short-term
m e m o r y i s 7 ± 2 chunks, n o t 7 ± 2 letters. W h e n s e v e r a l l e t t e r s a r e c o m b i n e d i n e a c h
chunk, we can h o l d m a n y m o r e letters in short-term m e m o r y than w h e n there is
only o n e letter per chunk.
W h e r e D o C h u n k s C o m e From?
A person's ability to r e m e m b e r in chunks d e p e n d s on that person's k n o w l e d g e .

I f y o u w a n t e d t o r e m e m b e r a l i s t c o n t a i n i n g t h e S w a h i l i w o r d for l e m o n , ndimu,
y o u w o u l d p r o b a b l y h a v e t o r e m e m b e r t h r e e c h u n k s — e n , dee, a n d moo—rather
t h a n t h e s i n g l e c h u n k y o u w o u l d n e e d for lemon. T h e s y l l a b l e s en, dee, a n d moo
are f a m i l i a r a s u n i t s o f p r o n u n c i a t i o n i n E n g l i s h ; t h e r e f o r e , w e c a n r e m e m b e r t h e m
a s c h u n k s . T h e c o m b i n a t i o n en-dee-moo, h o w e v e r , i s n o t a f a m i l i a r u n i t for E n g l i s h
s p e a k e r s , s o w e c a n ' t r e m e m b e r i t a s a c h u n k . Ndimu i s a c h u n k for S w a h i l i s p e a k e r s
b e c a u s e it is as f a m i l i a r to t h e m as lemon or parsnip is to u s .
E a c h character in a C h i n e s e ideograph (Figure 2) can be r e m e m b e r e d as a
c h u n k to those fluent in C h i n e s e . F o r those of us w h o are not c a p a b l e of reading
C h i n e s e , each character appears to be c o m p l e x e s of four to 10 lines and squiggles,
each of w h i c h must be r e m e m b e r e d as a chunk.
C h u n k s c o m e in m a n y shapes and sizes. W h e n e v e r we recognize a pattern in
Figure 2 . Three C h i n e s e Ideographs: " A Flight o f Butterflies"

information, we can break the information d o w n into c h u n k s and r e m e m b e r it m o r e

easily. F o r e x a m p l e , familiar sentences can be chunks. T h e list of words in T a b l e
2 A i s h a r d t o r e m e m b e r , b u t t h e s a m e list i s e a s y t o m e m o r i z e w h e n i t i s r e o r g a n i z e d
into maxims, as in T a b l e 2 B .
T a b l e 2. M a x i m s as C h u n k s
A. Words in bizarre sequence:
F o r I s e e t h e r e ' s o n e o l d b a s k e t l i k e all o f m y r e g r e t i n y o u r c o u n t r y e y e s d o n ' t

fool a n I s h o o t o n e b u t t h e fool t h a t y o u h a v e p u t t o l i f e till t h e i r e g g s d o n ' t g i v e
no whites.
B. T h e same words in familiar maxims:
I r e g r e t t h a t I h a v e b u t o n e l i f e t o g i v e for m y c o u n t r y .
D o n ' t p u t all y o u r e g g s i n o n e b a s k e t .
T h e r e ' s no fool like an old fool.
D o n ' t s h o o t till y o u s e e t h e w h i t e s o f their e y e s .
G r o u p s o f letters can b e chunks e v e n i f they don't form words. D D T , I B M ,

R S V P , a n d U S S R are e x a m p l e s of familiar letter clusters that we treat as chunks.
F a m i l i a r dates s u c h as 1066 and 1492 are e x a m p l e s of n u m b e r chunks. T e l e p h o n e
n u m b e r s t h a t a r e e a s y t o c h u n k , s u c h a s 7 0 7 - 1 7 7 6 , a r e e a s y t o r e m e m b e r for t h a t
reason.
Recoding
S o m e t i m e s m e s s a g e s can be r e c o d e d so that we can g e t m o r e information into

each chunk. Smith (reported in Miller, 1956) has s h o w n a dramatic effect of recod-
i n g o n m e m o r y s p a n for b i n a r y d i g i t s . * S m i t h first d e t e r m i n e d t h a t h i s s u b j e c t , w h o
w a s u n u s u a l l y g o o d at short-term m e m o r y tasks, c o u l d h o l d 15 b i n a r y digits in
i m m e d i a t e m e m o r y . T h a t is, he c o u l d listen to a n d r e p e a t b a c k a list like this:
1-0-1-1-0-1-0-0-0-1-1-0-1-1-0
N e x t h e d r i l l e d his s u b j e c t t h o r o u g h l y i n several r e c o d i n g s c h e m e s . I n the 2 : 1

r e c o d i n g s c h e m e , t h e s u b j e c t first g r o u p e d t h e l i s t o f d i g i t s i n p a i r s a n d t h e n
recoded each pair by the rule s h o w n in the box labeled " 2 : 1 R e c o d e r " in F i g u r e 3.
T h e subject stored the names of the pairs rather than the original binary digits
i n short-term m e m o r y . T h u s , h e h a d t o r e m e m b e r o n l y six pair n a m e s rather than
12 binary digits. W h e n asked to recall, the subject d e c o d e d the pair names and
a t t e m p t e d to report the original list of b i n a r y digits. T h i s s e q u e n c e of e v e n t s is also
s h o w n in F i g u r e 3. In the 3 : 1 r e c o d i n g s c h e m e , the subject g r o u p e d the list of digits
into triplets a n d t h e n r e c o d e d e a c h triplet b y the rule i n the b o x l a b e l e d " 3 : 1
R e c o d e r " in F i g u r e 4. W i t h this s c h e m e , the subject stored the four n a m e s of the
triplets—5-5-0-6—rather than the 12 binary digits. In addition, 4 : 1 and 5 : 1 recoding
schemes w e r e also taught.
W h e n t h e r e c o d i n g s c h e m e s h a d b e e n m a s t e r e d , t h e s u b j e c t ' s m e m o r y s p a n for
binary digits w a s again tested. T h i s time the subject r e c o d e d the binaries as he
listened to them and then d e c o d e d them again w h e n he repeated them. T h e result
w a s t h a t all o f t h e r e c o d i n g s c h e m e s i m p r o v e d t h e m e m o r y s p a n for b i n a r i e s . W i t h
3 : 1 recoding, he r e m e m b e r e d about 33 binaries, and with 5 : 1 recoding, more
than 40.
* Binary digits are s e q u e n c e s of zeros and ones.

R e c e n t l y , C h a s e a n d E r i c s s o n ( 1 9 7 9 ) r e p o r t e d m e m o r y - s p a n r e s u l t s for a s u b -
j e c t w h o u s e s a c o m p l e x s c h e m e for r e c o d i n g d e c i m a l d i g i t s a s t i m e s for r u n n i n g
races. T h i s subject can r e m e m b e r up to 81 d e c i m a l digits.
Searching for C h u n k s
C h u n k i n g i s a n a c t i v i t y — i t i s s o m e t h i n g that w e d o — a l t h o u g h w e are often

c o m p l e t e l y u n a w a r e t h a t w e a r e d o i n g it. C h u n k i n g i n v o l v e s n o t i c i n g , b u t s o m e -
t i m e s w e fail t o n o t i c e a p a t t e r n i n t h e m a t e r i a l w e a r e t r y i n g t o l e a r n . T h i s fact w a s
demonstrated v e r y n i c e l y i n e x p e r i m e n t s b y B o w e r a n d Springston (1970). I n both
e x p e r i m e n t s , s u b j e c t s s t u d i e d a n d i m m e d i a t e l y t r i e d t o r e c a l l lists o f l e t t e r s . T h e r e
w e r e t w o sorts o f l i s t s — l i s t s l i k e T V I B M T W A U S S R — i n w h i c h t h e c h u n k s are
e a s y t o f i n d — a n d lists l i k e I C B M F B I U S A O K — w h e r e t h e c h u n k s a r e a little
h a r d e r t o f i n d . ( B e s u r e y o u d o f i n d t h e m o r y o u w i l l m i s s a n i m p o r t a n t point.) I n
o n e s t u d y , t h e g r o u p s w e r e f o r m e d b y i n s e r t i n g p a u s e s i n s p o k e n lists. I n t h e o t h e r ,
t h e y w e r e f o r m e d b y c h a n g i n g t h e s i z e o r t h e c o l o r o f t h e l e t t e r s i n p r i n t e d lists. I n
both of the e x p e r i m e n t s , the subjects r e m e m b e r e d m o r e letters from the easy-to-
find lists t h a n f r o m t h e h a r d - t o - f i n d o n e s — a n d t h e d i f f e r e n c e s w e r e b i g — i n s o m e
Triplet Names DEcoded 1-0-1

Original List Reported 1 - 0 - 1
by Subject
Figure 4. 3:1 R e c o d i n g
cases, m o r e than 4 0 p e r c e n t . T h e e x p e r i m e n t e r s w e r e a b l e t o s h o w that the subjects
w e r e not m a k i n g u s e of t h e c h u n k s in the hard-to-find lists. If the subjects h a d m a d e
u s e o f the c h u n k s that w e r e p r e s e n t i n the lists, t h e y w o u l d h a v e r e m e m b e r e d more.
I t i s c l e a r that w e can m a k e l e a r n i n g a n d r e m e m b e r i n g easier b y s e a r c h i n g
c o n s c i o u s l y for c h u n k s i n t h e m a t e r i a l w e a r e s t u d y i n g .
Forgetting and Short-Term M e m o r y
T h e r e are t w o w a y s w e can lose information from short-term m e m o r y : b y

displacement and by decay.
Displacement
I m a g i n e y o u r s e l f as a n o v i c e waiter w h o b e l i e v e s that g o o d waiters k e e p orders

i n s h o r t - t e r m m e m o r y . Y o u t a k e t h e o r d e r o f y o u r first c u s t o m e r : m u s s e l s , b o r s c h t ,
spaghetti, rice, asparagus, p i c k l e s , and cocoa. " V e r y g o o d , sir," y o u say, not really
m e a n i n g it, b u t c o n f i d e n t t h a t t h e o r d e r i s s a f e l y s t o r e d i n s h o r t - t e r m m e m o r y . A s
you walk away, the customer says, " A n d a side of zucchini, waiter!" N o w you're in
trouble. Y o u r short-term m e m o r y holds s e v e n chunks and zucchini makes eight.
Y o u r e m e m b e r the zucchini, b u t i t has p u s h e d s o m e t h i n g e l s e out o f S T M . Y o u h a v e
The Structure of Human M e m o r y 77
n o i d e a w h a t i t w a s . B u t y o u k n o w that a t s o m e p o i n t t h e c u s t o m e r i s g o i n g t o s a y ,
"Waiter, w h e r e is my ?"
T h i s i s f o r g e t t i n g b y displacement. B e c a u s e s h o r t - t e r m m e m o r y h o l d s a l i m i t e d
n u m b e r o f c h u n k s , p u t t i n g a n e w c h u n k i n w h e n i t i s full w i l l p u s h a n o l d c h u n k
out.
Decay
I n f o r m a t i o n i s l o s t v e r y q u i c k l y f r o m S T M i f w e d o n ' t r e h e a r s e it. T h i s fact

was demonstrated clearly in an e x p e r i m e n t by Peterson and Peterson (1959). T h e
Petersons asked their subjects to r e m e m b e r just three letters—a triplet of con-
s o n a n t s s u c h a s " P T K " — f o r l e s s t h a n a m i n u t e . T h i s s e e m s l i k e a v e r y e a s y task.
H o w e v e r , b e t w e e n h e a r i n g t h e letters a n d t h e test, t h e s u b j e c t h a d t o c o u n t back-
w a r d s b y t h r e e ' s a s fast a s p o s s i b l e . T h e i n t e r c h a n g e b e t w e e n t h e e x p e r i m e n t e r a n d
the subject w e n t as follows:
Experimenter: " R X B , 4 7 1 "

Subject: " 4 7 1 , 468, 465, 462, . . ." [light s i g n a l i n g test] " R X B "
Counting backwards, if it is done rapidly, prevents rehearsal quite effectively.

Y o u c a n c o n v i n c e y o u r s e l f o f t h i s b y t r y i n g it.
T h e results of the P e t e r s o n s ' study are s h o w n in F i g u r e 5, and t h e y are surpris-
i n g . A f t e r s e v e n s e c o n d s , t h e s u b j e c t ' s c h a n c e s o f g e t t i n g t h e t r i p l e t r i g h t a r e 50/50,
a n d after 1 8 s e c o n d s , o n l y o n e i n 1 0 . T h e c o n c l u s i o n i s o b v i o u s : E v e n a s i m p l e
m e s s a g e in S T M will d e c a y in less than 20 seconds a n d be lost if it is not refreshed
by rehearsal.
Rehearsal
W e c a n m a i n t a i n a m e s s a g e i n s h o r t - t e r m m e m o r y for q u i t e s o m e t i m e . A
c o m m o n w a y to rehearse a m e s s a g e is to say it over and over to ourselves. S u p p o s e
Figure 5. Trigram Recall After V a r i o u s Intervals Filled W i t h B a c k w a r d Counting

From The Psychology of Learning and Memory by D o u g l a s L. Hintzman, W. H. Freeman
and C o m p a n y , copyright © 1 9 7 8 .
we w a n t to m a k e a p h o n e call in a p u b l i c place w h e r e the p h o n e b o o k is in one p l a c e

a n d t h e p h o n e i s i n a n o t h e r . W e all k n o w w h a t t o d o : W e l o o k u p t h e n u m b e r a n d
repeat it over and over w h i l e we race madly to the phone, avoiding people w h o
m i g h t ask us a question that c o u l d w i p e the n u m b e r out of our heads.
Surprisingly, y o u n g c h i l d r e n m a y not k n o w this rehearsal strategy. K e e n e y ,
C a n n i z z o , a n d F l a v e l l (1967) f o u n d that s o m e first-grade c h i l d r e n r e h e a r s e d a n d
s o m e didn't. T h o s e w h o r e h e a r s e d d i d b e t t e r i n short-term m e m o r y tests than those
w h o didn't. H o w e v e r , w h e n the non-rehearsers w e r e told t o r e h e a r s e , their per-
formance i m p r o v e d to the level of the children w h o rehearsed on their own.
W i t h uninterrupted rehearsal we can k e e p a p h o n e n u m b e r in short-term m e m -
o r y for a l o n g t i m e . J u s t h o w l o n g w o u l d a p p e a r t o d e p e n d o n t h e p e r s i s t e n c e w i t h
w h i c h the person continues to rehearse. T h e r e is currently no G u i n n e s s World
R e c o r d t i m e for h o l d i n g a t e l e p h o n e n u m b e r i n S T M , b u t p e r h a p s s o m e o n e d e s i r -
ing eternal fame will soon establish one.
S u m m a r y : Short-term M e m o r y
1. A c h u n k is a p a c k a g e of information that we treat as a unit b e c a u s e we r e c o g n i z e

it as a f a m i l i a r p a t t e r n .
2. Short-term m e m o r y can hold 7 ± 2 chunks.
3 . B y a c t i v e l y s e a r c h i n g for c h u n k s i n t h e m a t e r i a l w e w a n t t o l e a r n , w e c a n m a k e
learning easier.
4 . B y c o n t i n u o u s r e h e a r s a l , w e c a n k e e p a m e s s a g e i n s h o r t - t e r m m e m o r y for l o n g
periods of time.
5. Without rehearsal, information in S T M will d e c a y within 20 seconds.
LONG-TERM MEMORY
T h e r e a r e t w o d r a m a t i c w a y s i n w h i c h l o n g - t e r m m e m o r y d i f f e r s f r o m short-
t e r m m e m o r y . F i r s t , w h i l e s h o r t - t e r m m e m o r i e s last for l e s s t h a n 2 0 s e c o n d s , l o n g -
t e r m m e m o r i e s c a n l a s t for a l i f e t i m e . A v e r y o l d m a n m a y b e a b l e t o r e c a l l w h e r e
h e sat i n h i s f i r s t - g r a d e c l a s s r o o m a n d w h a t h i s t e a c h e r l o o k e d l i k e . S e c o n d , w h i l e
short-term m e m o r y can h o l d only 7 ±2 chunks, the capacity of long-term m e m o r y is
practically u n l i m i t e d . L o n g - t e r m m e m o r y contains our k n o w l e d g e of our l a n g u a g e
and of the faces of the p e o p l e we know. It contains our k n o w l e d g e of h o w to find
our w a y around the city, h o w to order in a restaurant, h o w to do algebra, a n d h o w
to p e e l a banana. I c o u l d go on, b u t it s h o u l d be clear a l r e a d y that the a m o u n t of
information in long-term m e m o r y is huge.
T h e topic o f long-term m e m o r y can b e d i v i d e d quite naturally into three
p h a s e s : first, a n encoding p h a s e i n w h i c h w e p u t i n f o r m a t i o n i n t o m e m o r y ; s e c o n d ,
a storage p h a s e ; a n d f i n a l l y , ^retrieval p h a s e i n w h i c h w e r e c o v e r t h e i n f o r m a t i o n
w e s t o r e d ( s e e F i g u r e 6 ) . I t i s n e c e s s a r y t o u n d e r s t a n d all t h r e e o f t h e s e p h a s e s i f
ENCODING | STORAGE [ RETRIEVAL
Figure 6. The Three Phases of Long-term M e m o r y
w e are t o u n d e r s t a n d h o w t o i m p r o v e long-term m e m o r y . W e w i l l discuss the

p h a s e s i n r e v e r s e o r d e r , d e a l i n g first w i t h r e t r i e v a l , t h e n s t o r a g e , a n d l e a v i n g t h e
m o s t c o m p l i c a t e d t o p i c — e n c o d i n g — f o r last.
Retrieval
E v e n t h o u g h w e h a v e s o m e fact, s u c h a s a n a m e o r d a t e , s t o r e d i n o u r m e m o r y ,
t h a t d o e s n ' t m e a n w e c a n g e t a t t h e i n f o r m a t i o n w h e n e v e r w e w a n t it. W e h a v e all
felt the frustration o f r e c o g n i z i n g p e o p l e a t parties b u t b e i n g c o m p l e t e l y u n a b l e t o

d r e d g e u p t h e i r n a m e s — c e r t a i n l y n o t i n t i m e for i n t r o d u c t i o n s . O f t e n w e f e e l t h a t
t h e n a m e i s " o n t h e t i p o f (our) t o n g u e . " W e m a y b e s u r e t h a t i t h a s t h r e e s y l l a b l e s
and b e g i n s w i t h " B " and w e k n o w that i f s o m e o n e told u s the n a m e w e w o u l d
recognize it immediately.
R o g e r B r o w n a n d D a v i d M c N e i l l (1966) h a v e s t u d i e d the " t i p o f the t o n g u e "
p h e n o m e n o n i n p e o p l e trying t o r e m e m b e r w o r d s . T h e y r e a d definitions o f infre-
quently u s e d words to subjects w h o w e r e asked to respond by writing d o w n the
corresponding word. For example, they w o u l d read "a navigational instrument
u s e d i n m e a s u r i n g a n g u l a r d i s t a n c e s , e s p e c i a l l y t h e a l t i t u d e o f s u n , m o o n , a n d stars
at sea." S o m e of the subjects h a d no idea w h a t w o r d this defines, w h i l e s o m e others
w e r e immediately able to write d o w n "sextant." T h e interesting subjects, though,
w e r e the ones w h o c o u l d not i m m e d i a t e l y write d o w n the a n s w e r , b u t w h o felt that
i t w a s j u s t " o n t h e t i p o f (their) t o n g u e . " T h e s e s u b j e c t s w e r e e n c o u r a g e d t o g i v e
all t h e i n f o r m a t i o n t h e y c o u l d a b o u t t h e w o r d : W h a t a r e its first l e t t e r s ? H o w m a n y
syllables does it h a v e ? W h a t does it r h y m e w i t h ? A b o u t half w e r e able to identify
t h e first l e t t e r c o r r e c t l y , a n d a b o u t h a l f k n e w t h e n u m b e r o f s y l l a b l e s i n t h e w o r d .
Many of these subjects did eventually r e m e m b e r the correct word.
T h e "tip o f the t o n g u e " p h e n o m e n o n illustrates clearly that e v e n though w e
have information in m e m o r y , we can't always get at it w h e n we want.
Retrieval Tasks
Psychologists h a v e i n v e n t e d a variety of w a y s to test m e m o r y . S o m e of these

methods put the b u r d e n on the subjects to s h o w w h a t t h e y k n o w , w h i l e others
reveal k n o w l e d g e that the subjects t h e m s e l v e s can't report and i n d e e d are u n a w a r e
they possess.
S u p p p o s e t h a t y o u a s k e d s u b j e c t s t o m e m o r i z e t h e f o l l o w i n g list:
Derby Hut Edna

Carp Beret Orange
Jane Peach Flounder
Apple House George
Church Grape Skyscraper
Trout Hat Fez
Frank Cod
L e t ' s a s s u m e t h a t y o u r e a d t h i s list t o t h e m i n o r d e r , o n e w o r d a t a t i m e , a n d t h a t
you read it through c o m p l e t e l y three times before you tested the subjects' memory.
T h e r e are m a n y w a y s t h a t y o u c o u l d t e s t t h e s u b j e c t s ' k n o w l e d g e . W e w i l l d i s c u s s
four m e t h o d s : u n c u e d r e c a l l , c u e d r e c a l l , r e c o g n i t i o n , a n d s a v i n g s .
Uncued recall. T h e c r i t i c a l f e a t u r e o f u n c u e d r e c a l l t a s k s i s t h a t t h e s u b j e c t s a r e
required to r e p r o d u c e the material they have learned with no aids. T h e r e are t w o

c o m m o n k i n d s of u n c u e d r e c a l l t a s k s : serial recall a n d free recall.
I f y o u a s k t h e s u b j e c t s t o w r i t e d o w n t h e w o r d s i n the order i n w h i c h t h e y h e a r d
t h e m , y o u will be testing by the m e t h o d of serial recall. If the subjects write
C A R P - D E R B Y rather than D E R B Y - C A R P , they get t w o wrong. R e m e m b e r i n g the
n u m b e r o f y o u r c o m b i n a t i o n l o c k i s a n e v e r y d a y e x a m p l e o f a s e r i a l r e c a l l task. Y o u
h a v e t o r e m e m b e r t h e n u m b e r s and t h e i r o r d e r .
I f y o u l e t t h e s u b j e c t w r i t e d o w n t h e w o r d s i n a n y o r d e r , t h e n y o u are t e s t i n g
b y t h e m e t h o d o f f r e e r e c a l l . F r e e r e c a l l i s e a s i e r for t h e s u b j e c t s t h a n s e r i a l r e c a l l
b e c a u s e t h e y can be scored correct e v e n though they don't r e m e m b e r the order of
the words. B e i n g a s k e d to say w h o w a s at a party or m e e t i n g is a c o m m o n free recall
task. T h e o r d e r i n w h i c h y o u m e n t i o n t h e p e o p l e d o e s n ' t m a t t e r .
Cued recall. I f y o u g a v e t h e s u b j e c t s h i n t s w h i c h t h e y t r i e d t o r e c a l l
( R e m e m b e r a n y fish n a m e s ? D o e s a n y t h i n g r h y m e w i t h f i g ? ) , t h e n y o u w o u l d b e
u s i n g t h e m e t h o d of c u e d recall. A c o m m o n e x a m p l e of a c u e d recall task is the party
situation in w h i c h y o u h a v e to r e m e m b e r people's names w h e n you see them. T h e
f a c e i s t h e c u e t o t h e n a m e w h i c h y o u m u s t try t o r e c a l l . A c u e d r e c a l l t a s k c a n b e
m a d e harder or easier by c h a n g i n g the c u e s . T h e s e c o n d list of c u e s in T a b l e 3
w o u l d p r o b a b l y b e m o r e h e l p f u l t h a n t h e first.
T a b l e 3. C u e Lists
General Category Cues Specific Category C u e s Rhyme Cues
living things fish harp

food fruit teach
names first n a m e s tank
clothing h e a d gear bat
man-made structures buildings lurch
Categories can serve as very powerful retrieval cues. T u l v i n g and Pearlstone

( 1 9 6 6 ) d e m o n s t r a t e d t h i s i n a n e x p e r i m e n t i n w h i c h t h e s u b j e c t s l e a r n e d lists o f
w o r d s w h i c h c o u l d b e g r o u p e d into categories. F o r e x a m p l e , the words " b o m b , "
" t a b l e , " "carrot," " c a n n o n , " " p o t a t o , " and " c h a i r " can b e g r o u p e d into the cate-
gories " w e a p o n s , " "furniture," and " v e g e t a b l e s . "
T w o g r o u p s o f s u b j e c t s s t u d i e d lists w h i c h c o n s i s t e d o f 4 8 w o r d s i n 1 2 c a t e g o -
ries. G r o u p 1 was a s k e d to recall as m a n y words as t h e y could. G r o u p 2 h a d the s a m e
task b u t t h e y w e r e also g i v e n the n a m e s o f the categories t o h e l p t h e m . P e o p l e i n
G r o u p 1 r e m e m b e r e d about 19 of the words, while people in G r o u p 2 remembered
nearly 30. T h e p e o p l e in the t w o groups r e m e m b e r e d about the same n u m b e r of
words in each category—2.6 out of 4 — b u t G r o u p 2 r e m e m b e r e d words in m a n y
m o r e c a t e g o r i e s — 1 1 . 5 c a t e g o r i e s for G r o u p 2 , b u t o n l y 7 . 3 for G r o u p 1 . T h e a d v a n -
tage that h a v i n g the c a t e g o r y n a m e s g a v e to G r o u p 2, t h e n , w a s that it i n c r e a s e d the
n u m b e r o f categories t h e y r e m e m b e r e d . N o t i c e t h a t i f G r o u p 1 r e m e m b e r e d a n y
w o r d s in a category, t h e n t h e y r e m e m b e r e d as m a n y as G r o u p 2. T h i s suggests that
r e m e m b e r i n g one w o r d in a category reminds the person of the w h o l e category, just
as hearing the category n a m e does. We can imagine ourselves trying to recall the
words, saying to ourselves, " C H . . . C H s o m e t h i n g — C H A I R ! Oh, yeah! And bed
and table!"
T h i s t e n d e n c y to r e m e m b e r things in clusters from the s a m e category w a s
c l e a r l y d e m o n s t r a t e d b y B o u s f i e l d ( 1 9 5 3 ) . H e a s k e d s u b j e c t s t o s t u d y a list o f 6 0
w o r d s from the four categories: animals, n a m e s , professions, a n d v e g e t a b l e s . T h e
c a t e g o r i e s w e r e s c r a m b l e d t o p r o d u c e lists l i k e t h i s : g i r a f f e , O t t o , b a k e r , t u r n i p ,
N o a h , c e l e r y , B e r n a r d , c a m e l , florist, e t c . T h e s u b j e c t s w e r e a s k e d t o r e c a l l a s m a n y
w o r d s a s t h e y c o u l d i n a n y o r d e r that o c c u r r e d t o t h e m . I n t h e i r r e s p o n s e s , t h e
s u b j e c t s w o u l d r e c a l l first a g r o u p o f i t e m s f r o m o n e c a t e g o r y , p a u s e , a n d t h e n r e c a l l
a group of items from another category, etc. R e m e m b e r i n g an i t e m s e e m e d to c u e
r e c a l l for o t h e r i t e m s i n t h e s a m e c a t e g o r y .
Recognition. Y o u c o u l d a l s o t e s t y o u r s u b j e c t s ' m e m o r y for 2 0 w o r d s b y a s k i n g
t h e m to p i c k t h e m out of a larger list w h i c h consists of the 20 old w o r d s m i x e d w i t h
2 0 n e w ones that w e r e n ' t o n the list t h e y studied. T h e s e n e w w o r d s are c a l l e d
" f o i l s . " T h e subjects' task i s t o g o through the 4 0 w o r d s , m a r k i n g t h e m either " o l d "
i f t h e y r e c o g n i z e t h e m a s p a r t o f t h e s t u d i e d list, o r " n e w " i f t h e y d o n o t . T h i s i s a
r e c o g n i t i o n task, w h i c h i s g e n e r a l l y e a s i e r t h a n a r e c a l l task.
T h e d i f f i c u l t y o f a r e c o g n i t i o n task v a r i e s w i t h t h e n a t u r e o f t h e f o i l s . W e w o u l d
e x p e c t o u r s u b j e c t s t o d o b e t t e r i f t h e foils w e r e d i f f e r e n t f r o m t h o s e i t e m s o n t h e
o r i g i n a l list. F o r e x a m p l e , i f t h e o l d l i s t w e r e m a d e u p o f n a m e s o f fruit, a n d t h e foils
w e r e all I t a l i a n w o r d s , t h e r e c o g n i t i o n t a s k w o u l d b e s i m p l e .
R e c o g n i t i o n t a s k s i n r e a l life c a n b e m o r e c o m p l i c a t e d : I f y o u g o t o t h e a i r p o r t
to m e e t s o m e o n e y o u h a v e m e t only once before, you h a v e a difficult recognition
task i n p i c k i n g t h a t p e r s o n o u t o f t h e c r o w d . I f y o u r l a u n d r y g e t s m i x e d w i t h
s o m e o n e e l s e ' s a t t h e l a u n d r o m a t , y o u a l s o h a v e a r e c o g n i t i o n task.
Savings. I f i n s t e a d o f t e s t i n g y o u r s u b j e c t s r i g h t after l e a r n i n g , y o u t e s t e d t h e m
a w e e k or a m o n t h later, t h e y w o u l d p r o b a b l y g e t v e r y l o w scores on a n y of the tests
w e h a v e d i s c u s s e d . T h e y m i g h t e v e n claim that t h e y r e m e m b e r e d a b s o l u t e l y noth-
ing a b o u t t h e lists. E v e n so, b y u s i n g t h e savings m e t h o d y o u c o u l d p r o b a b l y s h o w
that t h e y still r e t a i n e d s o m e t h i n g o f t h e i r e a r l i e r l e a r n i n g . W i t h t h e s a v i n g s m e t h o d ,
w e m e a s u r e how l o n g i t t a k e s t h e s u b j e c t t o r e l e a r n t h e o l d l i s t i n c o m p a r i s o n t o
l e a r n i n g a c o m p a r a b l e n e w list. I f i t t a k e s t h e s u b j e c t s s e v e n r e p e t i t i o n s t o r e l e a r n
t h e o l d list a n d 1 0 t o l e a r n t h e n e w , t h e n r e l e a r n i n g t i m e i s 7 0 p e r c e n t o f l e a r n i n g
time, and the savings score is 30 percent.
P e o p l e w h o h a v e t o r e p e a t a course are often surprised b y h o w m u c h easier the
c o u r s e i s t h e s e c o n d t i m e a r o u n d . E v e n i f t h e y f l u n k e d t h e c o u r s e t h e first t i m e ,
b e i n g in the same Jearning situation reveals k n o w l e d g e t h e y didn't suspect
they had.
O n e study s h o w e d that a child m a y retain a good deal of information e v e n from
very early e x p e r i e n c e s . W h e n his son w a s b e t w e e n 15 months and three years old,
H. E. Burtt (1941) read passages to h i m from S o p h o c l e s in the original G r e e k . He
r e p e a t e d e a c h p a s s a g e a b o u t 9 0 t i m e s . W h e n t h e c h i l d w a s 8V2, h e l e a r n e d b o t h o l d
a n d n e w p a s s a g e s a n d s h o w e d a s a v i n g s s c o r e o f 2 7 p e r c e n t for t h e o l d . B y t h e t i m e
the child w a s 14, the savings score d r o p p e d to e i g h t p e r c e n t , a n d at 18, to z e r o
percent.
T h e four r e c a l l tasks h a v e b e e n p r e s e n t e d h e r e i n i n c r e a s i n g o r d e r o f s e n s i t i v -
ity t o t h e s u b j e c t s ' k n o w l e d g e . F o r a g i v e n d e g r e e o f l e a r n i n g , w e w o u l d e x p e c t o u r
subjects t o s c o r e w o r s t i n u n c u e d r e c a l l t a s k s , b e t t e r i n c u e d r e c a l l t a s k s , a n d still
b e t t e r i n r e c o g n i t i o n t a s k s . T h e s a v i n g s m e t h o d i s t h e m o s t s e n s i t i v e o f all s i n c e i t
m a y r e v e a l k n o w l e d g e e v e n w h e n t h e s u b j e c t s c o r e s z e r o o n all o f t h e o t h e r t a s k s .
We w i l l m a k e u s e of the fact that s o m e retrieval tasks are easier than others
w h e n we discuss m e m o r y techniques in the next chapter. S o m e m e m o r y tech-
n i q u e s w o r k by c h a n g i n g a h a r d e r retrieval task into an e a s i e r o n e , e.g., by c h a n g i n g
a n u n c u e d r e c a l l t a s k i n t o a c u e d r e c a l l task.
Summary: Retrieval
I . E v e n t h o u g h i n f o r m a t i o n i s s t o r e d i n o u r m e m o r y , w e c a n ' t a l w a y s r e t r i e v e it, a s
the "tip of the t o n g u e " p h e n o m e n o n shows.
2. Retrieval tasks vary in difficulty in the f o l l o w i n g order:
U n c u e d recall (most difficult)

C u e d recall
Recognition
Savings (least difficult)
F o r a g i v e n d e g r e e of learning, we w o u l d get the b e s t score on a savings test and

the w o r s t o n a n u n c u e d recall test.
Storage
S u p p o s e s o m e o n e g i v e s y o u a m e s s a g e that y o u w i l l h a v e to act on t o m o r r o w ,
such as: " W h e n y o u take the d o g to the cleaners, tell t h e m to u s e less starch."
B e t w e e n t h e t i m e y o u e n c o d e t h e m e s s a g e a n d t h e t i m e y o u h a v e t o r e c a l l it, y o u
w o u l d h o p e that the information w i l l remain stored, p e a c e f u l and undisturbed, in
l o n g - t e r m m e m o r y . H o w e v e r , lots o f t h i n g s c a n h a p p e n t o a n u n s u s p e c t i n g m e m o r y
t r a c e . I f y o u w e r e h i t o n t h e h e a d s h o r t l y after r e c e i v i n g t h e m e s s a g e , y o u m i g h t
suffer f r o m r e t r o g r a d e a m n e s i a — a c o n d i t i o n i n w h i c h m e m o r i e s o f e v e n t s e x p e r i -
e n c e d j u s t b e f o r e t h e b l o w are lost. T h i s p h e n o m e n o n r e m i n d s u s dramatically that
the m e m o r y trace has a p h y s i c a l basis w i t h i n our brains and that it can be disturbed
by a gross p h y s i c a l e v e n t like a b l o w on the head.
I f a n y t h i n g h a p p e n s t o o u r m e m o r y t r a c e , t h o u g h , i t i s far m o r e l i k e l y t o h a p p e n
through interference than through retrograde amnesia. Interference occurs w h e n
l e a r n i n g o n e t h i n g m a k e s i t d i f f i c u l t for u s t o r e m e m b e r s o m e t h i n g e l s e . P s y c h o l o -
g i s t s d i s t i n g u i s h b e t w e e n t w o k i n d s o f i n t e r f e r e n c e — p r o a c t i v e a n d retroactive. I n
proactive interference, something learned earlier m a k e s it difficult to r e m e m b e r
s o m e t h i n g l e a r n e d later. F o r e x a m p l e , i f last w e e k y o u h a d gotten t h e m e s s a g e ,
" W h e n y o u g e t the d o g from the cleaners, tell t h e m the starch w a s just right," this
m e s s a g e m i g h t b e c o n f u s e d w i t h the current m e s s a g e a n d c a u s e proactive inter-
ference. T h e effect of proactive interference can be quite large. G r e e n b e r g and
U n d e r w o o d ( 1 9 5 0 ) a s k e d p e o p l e t o l e a r n 2 0 lists o f w o r d p a i r s — o n e l i s t e v e r y t w o
d a y s . F o r t h e first l i s t , t h e y f o u n d t h a t i n 2 4 h o u r s , s u b j e c t s f o r g o t a b o u t 2 0 p e r c e n t
o f t h e p a i r s t h a t t h e y h a d l e a r n e d . W i t h e a c h s u c c e s s i v e list t h e y l e a r n e d , t h e y f o r g o t
m o r e in 24 hours until on their t w e n t i e t h list t h e y forgot n e a r l y 80 p e r c e n t in 24
hours. E a c h s u c c e s s i v e list suffers from m o r e p r o a c t i v e i n t e r f e r e n c e than d i d t h e
p r e v i o u s o n e . T h i s can m a k e the difference b e t w e e n r e m e m b e r i n g four out o f five
items a n d forgetting four out of five items.
In retroactive i n t e r f e r e n c e , s o m e t h i n g l e a r n e d later m a k e s it difficult to re-
m e m b e r s o m e t h i n g w h i c h w a s l e a r n e d e a r l i e r . T h u s , i f after y o u r first m e s s a g e
about the dog, y o u r e c e i v e d a great m a n y other messages about dogs and laundries,
these could cause retroactive interference w h i c h w o u l d greatly increase your
chances of forgetting the original message.
Retroactive interference was demonstrated in a c u e d recall experiment by
B a r n e s a n d U n d e r w o o d ( 1 9 5 9 ) . T h e s u b j e c t s first l e a r n e d l i s t A - B ( s e e T a b l e 4 ) s o
that w h e n t h e y w e r e g i v e n t h e A i t e m s t h e y c o u l d r e p e a t t h e B i t e m s . T h e n t h e y
b e g a n t o s t u d y t h e A - C l i s t ( s e e T a b l e 4). N o t i c e t h a t t h e A i t e m s i n t h e A - B list are
e x a c t l y t h e s a m e a s t h e A i t e m s i n t h e A - C list. I n l e a r n i n g t h e A - B l i s t , t h e s u b j e c t s
l e a r n Z U T - U S E F U L a n d i n l e a r n i n g t h e A - C list, t h e y l e a r n Z U T - B R O W N .
B e t w e e n p r a c t i c e s e s s i o n s o n t h e A - C list, t h e s u b j e c t s w e r e t e s t e d b y p r e s e n t i n g
t h e A l i s t a n d a s k i n g t h e m t o g i v e both t h e B a n d t h e C i t e m s . A s p r a c t i c e o n t h e
A - C l i s t c o n t i n u e d , c u e d r e c a l l for t h e B i t e m s d e c l i n e d f r o m 1 0 0 p e r c e n t t o l i t t l e
m o r e t h a n 5 0 p e r c e n t a f t e r 2 0 A - C p r a c t i c e trials. C l e a r l y r e t r o a c t i v e i n t e r f e r e n c e
had a v e r y m a r k e d effect.
Table 4. Nonsense Syllable/Adjective Pairs
Nonsense Nonsense
Syllable Adjective Syllable Adjective
A B A C
ZUT useful ZUT brown
PUM dark PUM humble
BIP early BIP tall
SEG green SEG happy
YAD new YAD easy
LUS short LUS frequent
VOB helpful VOB hot
KIJ tough KIJ wet
WOF sad WOF wide
RUP distant RUP lively
C a n memories d e c a y simply through the passage of time? Earlier psychologists

t h o u g h t s o . T h o r n d i k e ( 1 9 1 4 ) , for e x a m p l e , b e l i e v e d t h a t m e m o r i e s g o t w e a k e r
through disuse. W h e n psychologists came to understand the effect of interference
on m e m o r y , t h e y b e g a n to d o u b t that t h e y n e e d e d d e c a y to explain m e m o r y losses.
M c G e o c h ( 1 9 3 2 ) , for e x a m p l e , s a i d , " T i m e , i n a n d o f itself, d o e s n o t h i n g . " M a n y
m o d e r n p s y c h o l o g i s t s b e l i e v e t h a t r e t r o a c t i v e a n d p r o a c t i v e i n t e r f e r e n c e a r e suffi-
c i e n t t o a c c o u n t for a l l o f t h e f o r g e t t i n g a t t r i b u t e d t o d e c a y . T h e i s s u e , h o w e v e r , i s
still i n d o u b t , a s H i n t z m a n ( 1 9 7 8 ) p o i n t s o u t .
H o w can w e r e d u c e the effects o f i n t e r f e r e n c e ? O u r m a i n w e a p o n s against i t
are overlearning a n d reviewing.
S u p p o s e that it w o u l d take y o u 10 hours of study to learn a topic w e l l e n o u g h
t o s c o r e 1 0 0 p e r c e n t o n a q u i z g i v e n i m m e d i a t e l y after s t u d y . I f y o u s t u d i e d 1 5
hours, w e w o u l d say that y o u had p u t i n 5 0 p e r c e n t o v e r l e a r n i n g , a n d i f y o u s t u d i e d
20 hours, 100 p e r c e n t o v e r l e a r n i n g . T h e effect of o v e r l e a r n i n g is to r e d u c e forget-
ting. K r e u g e r ( 1 9 2 9 ) s h o w e d t h a t i f m a t e r i a l w a s o v e r l e a r n e d b y 5 0 p e r c e n t o r 100
percent, it w a s better recalled over the next w e e k or t w o than if it was not over-
l e a r n e d . F u r t h e r , e v e n after a m o n t h , t h e s u b j e c t s s h o w a 2 0 p e r c e n t s a v i n g s s c o r e
w i t h o v e r l e a r n i n g , w h i l e w i t h o u t it, t h e y s h o w n o n e .
R e v i e w i n g information also protects it against i n t e r f e r e n c e ( U n d e r w o o d , 1964).
T h e m o r e f r e q u e n t l y w e r e f e r t o i n f o r m a t i o n , t h e m o r e l i k e l y w e a r e t o r e t a i n it.
T e l e p h o n e n u m b e r s w e call f r e q u e n t l y s u r v i v e interference from the m a n y other
numbers we m a y dial in a typical w e e k . Clearly, if students w o u l d r e v i e w the
course material frequently during the term, they c o u l d a v o i d that dreadful question,
" W h e r e h a v e I h e a r d a b o u t t h a t b e f o r e ? " t h a t s o o f t e n c o m e s u p d u r i n g final e x a m s .
Summary: Storage
1. M u c h of our forgetting can be attributed to interference from other learning.

2. When t h i n g s l e a r n e d e a r l i e r i n t e r f e r e w i t h m e m o r y for t h i n g s l e a r n e d l a t e r , w e
speak of proactive interference.
3. When t h i n g s l e a r n e d l a t e r i n t e r f e r e w i t h m e m o r y for t h i n g s l e a r n e d e a r l i e r , w e
speak of retroactive interference.
4. T h e effects of interference can be r e d u c e d through o v e r l e a r n i n g a n d r e v i e w .
Encoding
A t o n e time, p s y c h o l o g i s t s b e l i e v e d that w e c o u l d transfer information into

l o n g - t e r m m e m o r y s i m p l y b y r e h e a r s i n g it. N o w t h e y r e c o g n i z e t h a t i n o r d e r t o fix
an item in long-term memory, we must do something more complicated than just

repeating it over and over. We must rework the item or elaborate on it by asking
q u e s t i o n s a b o u t it, m a k i n g a s s o c i a t i o n s , c r e a t i n g i m a g e s , e t c . S i m p l e r e h e a r s a l
w h i c h w i l l k e e p an item in short-term m e m o r y is c a l l e d " m a i n t e n a n c e rehearsal."
Rehearsal with r e w o r k i n g and elaboration is called "elaborative rehearsal" (Craik
and Watkins, 1973).
In this section, 1. we will d e s c r i b e the e v i d e n c e that m a i n t e n a n c e rehearsal
isn't sufficient to p u t information into long-term m e m o r y , and 2. we w i l l discuss the
p r o c e s s e s w h i c h d o h e l p t o fix i n f o r m a t i o n i n l o n g - t e r m m e m o r y .
T h e r e i s a d i f f i c u l t y i n s h o w i n g t h a t s i m p l e r e p e t i t i o n i s n ' t s u f f i c i e n t t o fix
information in long-term m e m o r y . T h e difficulty lies in getting p e o p l e to do repe-
tition w i t h o u t also elaborating. I f subjects s u s p e c t that t h e y m a y b e tested o n w h a t
t h e y are r e p e a t i n g , t h e y m a y almost automatically d o w h a t e v e r t h e y u s u a l l y d o that
h e l p s to put the material into L T M , such as form images or m a k e associations. Craik
a n d W a t k i n s ( 1 9 7 3 ) w e r e a b l e t o d e v i s e a task i n w h i c h t h e s u b j e c t s a p p a r e n t l y d o n ' t
elaborate on w h a t t h e y are rehearsing. T h e subjects w e r e a s k e d to listen to a list of
w o r d s , similar to that s h o w n in the left-hand c o l u m n of T a b l e 5. T h e words w e r e
T a b l e 5. Craik and W a t k i n s ' Task
Word List Read Target Word Rehearsed

to Subject by Subject
1. daughter
2. oil
3. rifle
4. garden garden
5. grain grain
6. table grain
7. football grain
8. anchor grain
9. giraffe giraffe
10. harp giraffe
11. lake giraffe
12. bike giraffe
13. purse giraffe
14. milk giraffe
15. issue giraffe
16. shadow giraffe
17. chair giraffe
18. nail giraffe
19. job giraffe
20. trip giraffe
21. elbow giraffe
F r o m Craik and W a t k i n s , " T h e R o l e of Rehearsal in Short-term M e m o r y , " in the Journal of Verbal
Learning and Verbal Behavior, 12, 1 9 7 3 . R e p r i n t e d by permission of the authors.
read to t h e m o n e at a t i m e . T h e subjects' task w a s to report the last w o r d in the list

w h i c h b e g a n w i t h t h e l e t t e r " G " . T o d o t h i s , t h e s u b j e c t s w a i t e d for a w o r d b e g i n -
ning with G. W h e n a target w o r d was presented, the subjects rehearsed it (since it
m i g h t be the last one) until another target w o r d , if any, a p p e a r e d (see the right-hand
c o l u m n i n T a b l e 5). W h e n t h e n e w t a r g e t w o r d a p p e a r e d , i t r e p l a c e d t h e o l d o n e a s
the word b e i n g rehearsed. From the subjects' point of v i e w , there was no point in
p u t t i n g t h e o l d t a r g e t w o r d s i n t o l o n g - t e r m m e m o r y , s i n c e t h e i r task w a s t o r e p o r t
o n l y t h e c u r r e n t t a r g e t . N o t i c e that b y v a r y i n g t h e s p a c i n g b e t w e e n t a r g e t w o r d s
from z e r o t o t w e l v e w o r d s , t h e e x p e r i m e n t e r s w e r e a b l e t o control t h e a m o u n t o f
rehearsal g i v e n to each word.
H o w e v e r , after t h e s u b j e c t s h a d w o r k e d t h r o u g h a n u m b e r o f w o r d lists l i k e that
s h o w n in T a b l e 5, the experimenters u n e x p e c t e d l y a s k e d t h e m to recall as many
w o r d s a s p o s s i b l e f r o m all t h e l i s t s . T h e c r i t i c a l f i n d i n g w a s t h a t w o r d s w h i c h w e r e
r e h e a r s e d for a l o n g t i m e , a s d u r i n g a 1 2 - w o r d i n t e r v a l , w e r e n ' t r e m e m b e r e d a n y
b e t t e r t h a n w o r d s w h i c h w e r e r e h e a r s e d for a s h o r t t i m e , a s d u r i n g a z e r o - w o r d
interval. Maintenance rehearsal appeared to h a v e no effect in fixing information in
long-term m e m o r y . O t h e r studies b y C r a i k a n d W a t k i n s ( 1 9 7 3 , E x p e r i m e n t II) a n d
Jacoby (1974) also support this c o n c l u s i o n .
We h a v e taken the t r o u b l e to e m p h a s i z e this p o i n t b e c a u s e it is of c o n s i d e r a b l e
p r a c t i c a l i m p o r t a n c e . S o m e s t u d e n t s s p e n d a g r e a t d e a l o f effort o n m a i n t e n a n c e
r e h e a r s a l o f t h e i r l e s s o n s i n t h e m i s t a k e n b e l i e f t h a t i t w i l l fix i n f o r m a t i o n i n t h e i r
m e m o r y . T h e s e s t u d e n t s w o u l d d o far b e t t e r b y u s i n g t h e e n c o d i n g p r o c e d u r e s
described below.
Elaboration
I s u g g e s t e d a b o v e that in order to get information into long-term m e m o r y , we

m u s t e l a b o r a t e it. H o w e v e r , I d i d n ' t s a y v e r y s p e c i f i c a l l y w h a t e l a b o r a t i o n i s . P e r -
haps the b e s t w a y to u n d e r s t a n d elaboration is to think of it as a p r o c e s s that forms
c o n n e c t i o n s — e i t h e r w i t h i n the material to be learned, or b e t w e e n the material to
be learned and other things we already know. T h e more connections the material
h a s , t h e m o r e l i k e l y w e a r e t o b e a b l e t o r e m e m b e r it. W e m i g h t t h i n k o f a n
elaborated m e m o r y as a satchel w i t h lots of h a n d l e s . T h e m o r e h a n d l e s it has, the
e a s i e r i t i s t o g e t h o l d of.
I n t h e f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n s I w i l l d e s c r i b e s o m e t e c h n i q u e s for e l a b o r a t i n g
memories.
Inputs and Representations. I m a g i n e t h a t y o u a r e at a p a r t y a n d t h a t y o u a r e
b e i n g i n t r o d u c e d to s o m e o n e . At that m o m e n t y o u are e x p o s e d to a great deal of
i n f o r m a t i o n all a t o n c e . M u c h o f t h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o m e s f r o m t h e o u t s i d e , t h r o u g h
sensory channels. T h e r e is visual information—the a p p e a r a n c e of the person's face
and clothing, and the confused party s c e n e around him. T h e r e is auditory
information—the sound of the person's voice, the voice of your host introducing
him, and noises in t h e room. T h e r e is information from the m u s c l e s e n s e s — y o u
h a v e b e e n s t a n d i n g for h o u r s a n d w o u l d v e r y m u c h l i k e t o sit d o w n — a n d t h e r e i s
osmic or smell i n f o r m a t i o n — a faint fragrance of p e r f u m e a n d tobacco.
In addition to this s e n s o r y information, t h e r e is s e m a n t i c i n f o r m a t i o n — t h a t is,
meanings y o u d e r i v e from the sensory information that are not t h e m s e l v e s sensory
i n character. F o r e x a m p l e , y o u r host says, " M e e t m y son, t h e d o c t o r . " Later, e v e n
though you can't r e m e m b e r the sensory information—the inflections of the host's
v o i c e o r his p a r t i c u l a r w o r d i n g — y o u still r e m e m b e r t h e m e a n i n g , t h a t h e h a s a s o n
and the son is a doctor. Similarly, the sensory information of a faint fragrance m a y
b e p r o c e s s e d t o p r o d u c e a q u e s t i o n o f m e a n i n g far m o r e c o m p l e x t h a n t h e s c e n t
w h i c h t r i g g e r e d it: " W h y i s t h i s g u y w e a r i n g C h a n e l # 5 ? "
C o r r e s p o n d i n g to the various forms of information i n p u t there are forms of
internal representation. R e m e m b e r i n g a visual i m a g e of a face is m u c h l i k e l o o k i n g
at a face. U s u a l l y , we c a n tell the d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n a s e n s o r y i m a g e a n d a m e m o r y
image, b u t P e r k y (1910) s h o w e d that p e o p l e can be f o o l e d into a c c e p t i n g a real
external picture as s o m e t h i n g t h e y are i m a g i n i n g . Similarly, r e m e m b e r i n g an audi-
tory i m a g e o f a f r i e n d ' s v o i c e i s m u c h l i k e l i s t e n i n g t o a r e a l v o i c e .
A p a r t i c u l a r f o r m of i n t e r n a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n , e . g . , a v i s u a l i m a g e , is t y p i c a l l y
b e t t e r for r e m e m b e r i n g s o m e k i n d s o f i n f o r m a t i o n t h a n for r e m e m b e r i n g o t h e r
k i n d s . V i s u a l i m a g e s a r e g o o d for r e m e m b e r i n g p i c t u r e s b u t n o t for r e m e m b e r i n g
t u n e s . A u d i t o r y i m a g e s a r e g o o d for t u n e s b u t t e r r i b l e for s u n s e t s .
Representation and Elaboration. O n e o b v i o u s w a y to e l a b o r a t e on a m e s s a g e
i s t o u s e m o r e t h a n o n e f o r m o f r e p r e s e n t a t i o n t o c o d e it. W h e n r e a d i n g , for e x a m -
ple, we might construct visual images of the p e o p l e and actions described in the
text in addition to our usual semantic c o d i n g of the material. T h e r e is a great deal
of e v i d e n c e d e m o n s t r a t i n g that i m a g e r y is a p o w e r f u l m e m o r y aid. L e v i n (1973)
t a u g h t f o u r t h - g r a d e c h i l d r e n t o i m a g e w h a t t h e y w e r e r e a d i n g a n d s h o w e d that i t
h e l p e d t h e m t o r e m e m b e r t h e m a t e r i a l . P a i v i o a n d C s a p o ( 1 9 7 3 ) s h o w e d that i t i s
easier to learn a list of w o r d s s u c h as " a l l i g a t o r " a n d " a c c o r d i a n " w h i c h are easy to
image than words such as "ability" and "afterlife" w h i c h are hard to image. In the
next chapter, we will d e s c r i b e a n u m b e r of m e m o r y t e c h n i q u e s that d e p e n d on
visual imagery.
W h i l e i m a g e r y can be a v e r y p o w e r f u l m e m o r y aid, not e v e r y sort of i m a g e is
h e l p f u l . T o h e l p t h e m l e a r n a list o f w o r d p a i r s , B o w e r ( 1 9 7 2 ) a s k e d h i s s u b j e c t s t o
form e i t h e r o f t w o k i n d s o f i m a g e s : i n t e r a c t i n g i m a g e s a n d s e p a r a t e d i m a g e s . T o
form a n i n t e r a c t i n g i m a g e for t h e p a i r " d o g - b i c y c l e " t h e s u b j e c t s m i g h t p i c t u r e a
d o g riding a b i c y c l e . To form a separated image, t h e y w o u l d picture a d o g on the
left a n d a b i c y c l e o n t h e r i g h t i n s u c h a w a y t h a t t h e t w o o b j e c t s d i d n ' t i n t e r a c t .
B o w e r f o u n d t h a t w i t h i n t e r a c t i v e i m a g e s , s u b j e c t s g i v e n t h e first h a l f o f e a c h p a i r
could r e m e m b e r 71 p e r c e n t of the pairs. With separated images, they r e m e m b e r e d
only 46 p e r c e n t — n o m o r e than subjects w h o s i m p l y r e p e a t e d the pairs w i t h o u t
i m a g i n g . I n t e r a c t i v e i m a g e s , t h a t is, i m a g e s w h i c h f o r m c o n n e c t i o n s , a r e a u s e f u l
m e m o r y aid. S e p a r a t e d i m a g e s are not.
Elaboration is p o s s i b l e w i t h i n a single form of representation b e c a u s e we can
u s e t h a t f o r m i n m o r e t h a n o n e w a y t o c o d e a m e s s a g e . S u p p o s e , for e x a m p l e , t h a t
w e w a n t e d t o f o r m a n i m a g e for a n a b s t r a c t w o r d l i k e " a g r e e m e n t . " W e m i g h t
picture two p e o p l e shaking hands, or we might picture a paper marked "agree-
m e n t , " o r w e m i g h t p i c t u r e t w o p e o p l e s h a k i n g h a n d s and e x c h a n g i n g a p a p e r
marked "agreement."
Elaborating by Answering Questions. S u p p o s e t h a t y o u a r e h a l f w a y t h r o u g h a
m y s t e r y story a n d a friend w h o has already read it b e g i n s to harass y o u w i t h
questions such as:
D i d y o u n o t i c e h o w t h e C o u n t e s s w a s d r e s s e d after t h e m u r d e r ?
D i d you figure out w h y the butler w a l k e d with a limp?
D i d y o u w o n d e r w h y Sir A u b r e y a l w a y s w o r e a scarf?
A s s u m i n g that y o u restrain the i m p u l s e to throw the b o o k at y o u r friend, y o u

will p r o b a b l y c h a n g e t h e w a y y o u represent the story t o y o u r s e l f a s y o u read. N o w
y o u w i l l n o t i c e h o w p e o p l e are d r e s s e d and h o w the b u t l e r w a l k s , a n d try t o find
connections b e t w e e n these things and the murder. T h e questions, then, will cause
you to elaborate your representation.
Craik and T u l v i n g (1975) performed an experiment to find out h o w elabora-
tions i n d u c e d b y q u e s t i o n s w o u l d i n f l u e n c e m e m o r y . T h e y b e l i e v e d that elabo-
rations i n v o l v i n g s e m a n t i c c o d e s w o u l d i m p r o v e m e m o r y m o r e t h a n e l a b o r a t i o n o f
visual or auditory c o d e s . T h e subjects' task w a s to a n s w e r q u e s t i o n s a b o u t a se-
q u e n c e o f w o r d s . T h e subjects w o u l d b e g i v e n a q u e s t i o n s u c h as, " I s the w o r d i n
capital letters?" before e a c h word. T h e y a n s w e r e d " y e s " o r " n o " a n d w e n t o n t o the
next question. T y p i c a l questions and responses are s h o w n in T a b l e 6.
T h e typeface and rhyme questions might be e x p e c t e d to induce visual and
auditory elaboration respectively, and the category and sentence questions might
be e x p e c t e d to i n d u c e semantic elaboration. After the subjects w o r k e d through 40
question-word pairs, they w e r e u n e x p e c t e d l y tested. T h e test required the subjects
Table 6. Typical Q u e s t i o n s and Responses in t h e Craik and Tulving Experiment
Level of
processing Question Yes No
Visual Is the w o r d in capital letters? TABLE table

Auditory D o e s the word rhyme with W E I G H T ? crate MARKET
Category Is the w o r d a t y p e of fish? SHARK heaven
Sentence W o u l d t h e w o r d fit t h e s e n t e n c e : friend CLOUD
" H e met a in the street?"
F r o m Craik and T u l v i n g , " D e p t h of P r o c e s s i n g and the R e t e n t i o n of Words in E p i s o d i c M e m o r y , " in the
Journal of Experimental Psychology, 1 0 4 , 1 9 7 5 . C o p y r i g h t 1 9 7 5 by the A m e r i c a n P s y c h o l o g i c a l Associa-
tion. Reprinted by permission.
Table 7. Percent of W o r d s C o r r e c t l y Identified in the Craik and Tulving Experiment
Question T y p e : Typeface Rhyme Category Sentence
Percent Correct: 16 57 78 89
to examine a list consisting of the original w o r d s m i x e d with 40 n e w ones and to

check the words they had seen before.
T a b l e 7 s h o w s that the s e n t e n c e a n d category questions l e d to b e t t e r r e c o g n i -
tion t h a n t h e r h y m e a n d t y p e f a c e q u e s t i o n s . T h i s r e s u l t i s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h C r a i k a n d
Tulving's b e l i e f that semantic elaboration w o u l d aid m e m o r y more than visual or
auditory elaboration.
Noticing Categories. A s w e d i s c u s s e d e a r l i e r , c a t e g o r i e s a r e a v e r y p o w e r f u l
retrieval c u e . I f w e n o t i c e categories i n the material w e are learning, w e can
i n c r e a s e o u r c h a n c e s o f r e m e m b e r i n g it.
Jacoby (1974) s h o w e d this by arranging a situation in w h i c h o n e group of
subjects w a s m o r e l i k e l y to n o t i c e categories in a list than another. He s h o w e d b o t h
groups a l o n g list of w o r d s w h i c h c o n t a i n e d s u c h categories as birds, v e g e t a b l e s ,
etc. A s e a c h w o r d w a s s h o w n , G r o u p 1 w a s a s k e d t o s a y w h e t h e r i t w a s a m e m b e r
of the same c a t e g o r y as the i m m e d i a t e l y p r e c e d i n g w o r d . G r o u p 2 w a s a s k e d to say
w h e t h e r i t w a s i n t h e s a m e c a t e g o r y a s any p r e c e d i n g w o r d . T h u s , i f w o r d s l i k e
"parrot" a n d " f i n c h " o c c u r r e d i n t h e list five w o r d s apart, w e w o u l d e x p e c t that
Group 2 w o u l d be m o r e likely to notice the category " b i r d s " than w o u l d G r o u p 1.
On a surprise recall test, G r o u p 2 r e m e m b e r e d m u c h m o r e than G r o u p 1. T h e
learner is w e l l a d v i s e d to notice category relations in the material b e i n g learned.
Hierarchies. M u c h o f t h e i n f o r m a t i o n w e d e a l w i t h e v e r y d a y i s o r g a n i z e d i n
categories, and f r e q u e n t l y those categories are t h e m s e l v e s o r g a n i z e d in hier-
archies. F o r e x a m p l e , minerals can be arranged in a hierarchically o r g a n i z e d set of
categories as s h o w n in F i g u r e 7. We k n o w that attention to categories can aid
learning. W h a t about attention to hierarchical organization? B o w e r , Clark, L e s g o l d ,
and W i n z e n z (1969) h a v e studied just such hierarchically organized material. In
fact, F i g u r e 7 i s o n e o f t h e e i g h t h i e r a r c h i e s t h e y s t u d i e d . T h e s u b j e c t s i n t h e i r
e x p e r i m e n t l e a r n e d e i t h e r b y s e e i n g t h e c o m p l e t e h i e r a r c h y all a t o n c e o n e a c h o f
t h e four trials ( w h o l e m e t h o d ) o r b y s e e i n g l e v e l 1 a n d 2 o f t h e h i e r a r c h y o n trial 1 ;
l e v e l s 1 , 2 , a n d 3 o n trial 2 ; a n d all f o u r l e v e l s o n trials 3 a n d 4 ( p r o g r e s s i v e m e t h o d ) .
Further, in s o m e cases the organization of the material w a s meaningful as in
Figure 7, and in others it w a s random, as in T a b l e 8.
M e a n i n g f u l o r g a n i z a t i o n m a d e a b i g d i f f e r e n c e i n t h e n u m b e r o f w o r d s re-
c a l l e d . O n t h e first t r i a l , s u b j e c t s i n t h e m e a n i n g f u l c o n d i t i o n r e m e m b e r e d m o r e
LEVEL
T a b l e 8. Random O r g a n i z a t i o n of Mineral Information
STONES METALS
Precious Alloys Rare Masonry Common
limestone ruby copper emerald iron

bronze sapphire marble silver diamond
aluminum granite steel lead slate
platinum brass gold
than three times as m a n y words as those in the random condition. Performance of

subjects i n t h e m e a n i n g f u l c o n d i t i o n w a s p e r f e c t b y t h e third trial, w h i l e subjects
i n t h e r a n d o m c o n d i t i o n still k n e w l e s s t h a n h a l f o f t h e w o r d s o n t h e t h i r d trial.
F u r t h e r , l e a r n i n g t h e t o p t h r e e l e v e l s o f t h e h i e r a r c h y first, a s i n t h e p r o g r e s s i v e
m e t h o d , h e l p e d s u b j e c t s t o l e a r n t h e w o r d s o n t h e f o u r t h l e v e l . O n t h e i r first
e x p o s u r e t o the w o r d s o n t h e fourth l e v e l , subjects u s i n g the w h o l e m e t h o d l e a r n e d
60 percent of the words, w h i l e subjects using the progressive m e t h o d learned 77
percent. Attending to the hierarchical organization of the material to be learned is
clearly a p o w e r f u l l e a r n i n g aid.
Use o f Examples. E x a m p l e s a r e t y p i c a l l y a t t h e v e r y l o w e s t l e v e l s i n t h e h i e r a r -
c h i c a l s t r u c t u r e o f a t e x t o r a l e c t u r e . N o n e t h e l e s s , t h e y c a n b e v e r y i m p o r t a n t for
understanding the information presented. Pollchik (1975) asked subjects to read a
100-sentence text d e s c r i b i n g s e v e n psychological d e f e n s e m e c h a n i s m s . In addi-
tion, he g a v e s o m e of the subjects t w o one-sentence e x a m p l e s illustrating e a c h of
the m e c h a n i s m s . To test their k n o w l e d g e of the defense m e c h a n i s m s , subjects w e r e
asked to identify the mechanism involved in each of 20 cases. Subjects w h o had had
e x a m p l e s as part of their instruction correctly identified 16.4 of the 20 cases. S u b -
j e c t s w h o h a d n o t s e e n t h e e x a m p l e s a s p a r t o f t h e i r i n s t r u c t i o n i d e n t i f i e d o n l y 9.9
of the cases. E x a m p l e s , then, are an important aid to instruction.
S u m m a r y : Encoding
1. M a i n t e n a n c e rehearsal isn't sufficient to put information into long-term m e m o r y .

Elaborative rehearsal is necessary.
2. T h e r e are s e v e r a l distinct m e m o r y c o d e s : auditory, v i s u a l , semantic, etc.
3. Elaborative rehearsal m a y involve:
• use of extra c o d e s , s u c h as imagery

• answering questions
• noticing categories
• a t t e n d i n g to h i e r a r c h i c a l s t r u c t u r e
• s e e i n g principles illustrated in e x a m p l e s
CONTROLLING YOUR O W N LEARNING PROCESS

U p t o this point w e h a v e d i s c u s s e d the p r o c e s s e s o f e n c o d i n g , storage, and
retrieval separately. I n this section, w e w i l l d e s c r i b e h o w p e o p l e can u s e o n e o f
these processes to control another. F o r e x a m p l e , we will d e s c r i b e h o w retrieval can
profitably be u s e d to control information about success and failure at e n c o d i n g .
W h e n y o u are s t u d y i n g , y o u c a n m a k e d e c i s i o n s a b o u t h o w t o s p e n d y o u r s t u d y
t i m e . I f y o u a r e l u c k y , y o u c a n c h o o s e t o s p r e a d t h e effort y o u s p e n d o n a s u b j e c t
o u t o v e r w e e k s o r m o n t h s . I f y o u a r e n ' t l u c k y , y o u m a y f i n d y o u r s e l f c r a m m i n g all
y o u r effort i n t o t h e last f e w h o u r s a v a i l a b l e b e f o r e a n e x a m o r s o m e o t h e r d e a d l i n e .
Y o u can c h o o s e to e m p l o y any of a w i d e variety of strategies in learning, e.g., y o u
can e n c o d e information i n m a n y w a y s . Y o u m a y c h o o s e t o s p e n d 100 p e r c e n t o f y o u r
study time in r e a d i n g a n d r e r e a d i n g the material y o u are trying to learn, or y o u m a y
choose to s p e n d s o m e of your time testing yourself. Your decisions about h o w to
spend your time h e l p determine the efficiency of your learning.
I n g e n e r a l , s p r e a d i n g y o u r s t u d y effort o u t o v e r a p e r i o d o f t i m e i s m o r e effi-
c i e n t t h a n c r a m m i n g . T h a t i s , i f y o u d i s t r i b u t e y o u r effort, y o u c a n l e a r n a t o p i c i n
less time than w i t h m a s s e d practice. F i g u r e 8 s h o w s L y o n ' s (1914) results compar-
i n g m a s s e d a n d d i s t r i b u t e d p r a c t i c e for t a s k s w h i c h v a r y i n d i f f i c u l t y . T h e a d v a n -
tage of distributed practice i n c r e a s e s as the task b e c o m e s m o r e difficult.
Number of syllables in list

Figure 8. Massed V e r s u s Distributed P r a c t i c e in Relation to Length of List Learned
Reprinted from Foundations of Psychology, Boring, E. G., Langfeld, H. S., and
W e l d , H. P. By permission of John W i l e y and Sons, © 1 9 4 8 .
A s t u d y b y T h o r n d y k e a n d S t a s z (1980) o n m a p l e a r n i n g i l l u s t r a t e s t h e i m p o r -
t a n c e o f s t r a t e g y s e l e c t i o n . T h e s u b j e c t s w e r e g i v e n six t w o - m i n u t e s t u d y p e r i o d s
in w h i c h to learn p l a c e n a m e s and spatial information from a m a p . After e a c h study
period, they d r e w and l a b e l e d as m u c h of the m a p as t h e y c o u l d r e m e m b e r . T h e
subjects v a r i e d c o n s i d e r a b l y i n t h e i r s u c c e s s i n t h i s l e a r n i n g t a s k a n d i n t h e strate-
g i e s t h e y u s e d i n p e r f o r m i n g it. T h e a u t h o r s f o u n d i m p o r t a n t d i f f e r e n c e s i n t h e w a y
g o o d a n d p o o r l e a r n e r s a p p r o a c h e d t h e task. F i r s t , t h e y f o u n d t h a t g o o d l e a r n e r s
e m p l o y e d b e t t e r s t r a t e g i e s for e n c o d i n g s p a t i a l i n f o r m a t i o n . T h e y f r e q u e n t l y u s e d
visual imagery, pattern e n c o d i n g (e.g., " I t looks like a h o u s e " ) , a n d relational
e n c o d i n g ( e . g . , " T h o s e t w o s t r e e t s are p a r a l l e l " ) . S e c o n d , t h e g o o d l e a r n e r s w e r e

more effective in using self-evaluation to control their learning. T h e good learners
w e r e more likely than the poor learners to evaluate t h e m s e l v e s w h e r e their knowl-
e d g e was weak. T h e poor learners w e r e more likely to spend time confirming what
they did know. In evaluating themselves, the good learners w e r e more accurate
(96 p e r c e n t c o r r e c t ) t h a n t h e p o o r l e a r n e r s (82 p e r c e n t c o r r e c t ) . F u r t h e r , w h e n t h e
good learners d i s c o v e r e d that t h e y didn't k n o w s o m e t h i n g , t h e y w e r e more likely
t o t a k e i m m e d i a t e a c t i o n t o l e a r n i t (95 p e r c e n t ) t h a n w e r e t h e p o o r l e a r n e r s
(75 percent). T h e s e three differences taken together a d d up to a v e r y considerable
d i f f e r e n c e i n t h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s w i t h w h i c h g o o d a n d p o o r l e a r n e r s u s e self-
evaluation to control learning.
I n a s e c o n d s t u d y , T h o r n d y k e a n d S t a s z (1980) s h o w e d t h a t t h e s p a t i a l c o d i n g
and self-evaluation strategies w h i c h the good learners use could be taught to other
subjects and that d o i n g so m a r k e d l y i m p r o v e d the subjects' m a p learning per-
formance.
T h e T h o r n d y k e and Stasz study s h o w s that self-evaluation is important, b u t
h o w m u c h of your study time, if any, should y o u devote to testing yourself? Gates
(1917) investigated this question and c a m e up w i t h a surprising answer. His results,
s h o w n i n F i g u r e 9 , indicate that p e o p l e m a y learn b e s t w h e n t h e y s p e n d u p t o 8 0
percent of their study time in testing themselves.
20 -
10 -
_] I I I I
0 20 40 60 80
P e r c e n t a g e of study time
spent in self-recitation
Figure 9. Effects on Recall of Spending Various Proportions of Study T i m e in
A t t e m p t i n g Retrieval Rather Than in Silent Study, for Tests G i v e n Immediately After
Study From Introduction to Psychology, Seventh Edition, edited by E. R. Hilgard,
R. L. Atkinson, and R. C. Atkinson. By permission of Harcourt Brace
Jovanovich, Inc., © 1 9 7 9 .
S u m m a r y : C o n t r o l of Learning Process
P e o p l e can influence their o w n learning processes and h a v e a great deal to gain
b y d o i n g so. B y J . c h o o s i n g t o distribute practice, 2 . s e l e c t i n g appropriate l e a r n i n g
strategies, a n d 3. u s i n g evaluation of progress to control study, p e o p l e can signifi-
cantly increase their learning effectiveness.
CONCLUSION
Basic research on human m e m o r y provides us with a great deal of useful

information. It indicates the importance of c h u n k i n g in u s i n g our limited capacity
short-term m e m o r i e s effectively. Further, it p r o v i d e s a n u m b e r of g u i d i n g princi-
p l e s for t h e e f f i c i e n t u s e o f l o n g - t e r m m e m o r y . F o r e x a m p l e , i t h a s s h o w n t h e
i m p o r t a n c e o f e l a b o r a t i o n for l e a r n i n g , t h e v a l u e o f o v e r l e a r n i n g a n d r e h e a r s a l for
maintaining information in storage, and the usefulness of c u e i n g in recall. In addi-
tion, research reveals that p e o p l e can b e c o m e m o r e effective learners if t h e y learn
to monitor and control their o w n learning processes.
REFERENCES
B a r n e s , J . M . , a n d U n d e r w o o d , B.J. " ' F a t e ' " o f F i r s t - l i s t A s s o c i a t i o n s i n T r a n s f e r

T h e o r y . " Journal of Experimental Psychology, 58, 97-105, 1961.
Bousfield, W. A. " T h e Occurrence of Clustering in the Recall of Randomly

A r r a n g e d A s s o c i a t e s . " Journal of General Psychology, 49, 2 2 9 - 2 4 0 , 1 9 5 3 .
B o w e r , G . H . " M e n t a l I m a g e r y a n d A s s o c i a t i v e L e a r n i n g . " I n Cognition i n Learn-

ing and Memory, e d i t e d b y L . W . G r e g g . N e w Y o r k : W i l e y , 1 9 7 2 .
Bower, G.H., Clark, M.C., Lesgold, A.M., and W i n z e n z , D. "Hierarchical Retrieval

S c h e m e s in R e c a l l of C a t e g o r i z e d W o r d L i s t s . " Journal of Verbal Learning and
Verbal Behavior, 8, 3 2 3 - 3 4 3 , 1 9 6 9 .
Bower, G.H., and Springston, F. "Pauses as R e c o d i n g Points in Letter Series."

Journal of Experimental Psychology, 83, 421-430, 1970.
Brooks, L.R. "Spatial and Verbal Components o f t h e A c t o f R e c a l l . " Canadian

Journal of Psychology, 22, 349,368, 1968.
B r o w n , R., a n d M c N e i l l , D . " T h e ' T i p o f t h e T o n g u e ' P h e n o m e n o n . " Journal o f

Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior, 5, 3 2 5 - 3 3 7 , 1 9 6 6 .
Burtt, H . E . " A n E x p e r i m e n t a l S t u d y o f E a r l y C h i l d h o o d M e m o r y : F i n a l R e p o r t . "

Journal of Genetic Psychology, 58, 4 3 5 - 4 3 9 , 1 9 4 1 .
C h a s e , W . G . , a n d E r i c s s o n , K.A. A Mnemonic System for Digit Span: One Year

Later. U n p u b l i s h e d r e p o r t , C a r n e g i e - M e l l o n U n i v e r s i t y , 1 9 7 9 .
Craik, F.I.M., and T u l v i n g , E. " D e p t h of P r o c e s s i n g a n d the R e t e n t i o n of W o r d s in

E p i s o d i c M e m o r y . " Journal of Experimental Psychology, 104, 2 6 8 - 2 9 4 , 1 9 7 5 .
Craik, F.I.M., and W a t k i n s , M.J. " T h e R o l e o f R e h e a r s a l i n Short-term M e m o r y . "

Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior, 12, 599-607, 1973.
Gates, A.I. " R e c i t a t i o n as a F a c t o r in M e m o r i z i n g . " Archives of Psychology, 40,

1917.
G r e e n b e r g , R., a n d U n d e r w o o d , B.J. " R e t e n t i o n a s a F u n c t i o n o f S t a g e o f P r a c t i c e . "

Journal of Experimental Psychology, 40, 452-457, 1950.
Hintzman, D.L. The Psychology of Learning and Memory. San Francisco:

W.H. Freeman, 1978.
Jacoby, L.L. " T h e R o l e of M e n t a l C o n t i g u i t y in M e o r y : Registration and Retrieval

E f f e c t s . " Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior, 13, 4 8 3 - 4 9 6 , 1 9 7 4 .
FIVE.
USING M E M O R Y EFFECTIVELY
Usually w h e n we think of m e m o r y , we think of information that is stored inside

t h e h e a d . I n t h i s c h a p t e r , w e w a n t t o e m p h a s i z e that, w h i l e s o m e o f t h e i n f o r m a t i o n
available to us is stored inside the head, m u c h of it is stored outside. Solving
p r a c t i c a l p r o b l e m s t y p i c a l l y r e q u i r e s u s t o u s e b o t h i n t e r n a l and e x t e r n a l m e m o r y .
O u r e f f e c t i v e n e s s in practical m e m o r y tasks is often d e t e r m i n e d by our s u c c e s s in
managing the relation b e t w e e n internal and external m e m o r y . If the answer to our
p r o b l e m i s i n a r e f e r e n c e b o o k i n t h e l i b r a r y , i t w o n ' t h e l p u s a t all u n l e s s w e h a v e
s u f f i c i e n t k n o w l e d g e in our heads to be a b l e to f i n d t h e b o o k .
I n t h i s c h a p t e r , w e w i l l d e s c r i b e s t r a t e g i e s for u s i n g b o t h i n t e r n a l a n d e x t e r n a l
memories effectively. First, w e will describe several m n e m o n i c t e c h n i q u e s — t h a t
is, p r o c e d u r e s for s t o r i n g i n f o r m a t i o n r a p i d l y i n i n t e r n a l l o n g - t e r m m e m o r y — a n d
w e will p r o v i d e practice e x e r c i s e s i n their use. W h e n y o u h a v e m a s t e r e d this
section, y o u s h o u l d be a b l e at o n e h e a r i n g to learn a list of 20 w o r d s p r e s e n t e d at
t h e rate o f o n e w o r d e v e r y f i v e s e c o n d s . I n a d d i t i o n , y o u s h o u l d b e a b l e t o l e a r n
f o r e i g n l a n g u a g e v o c a b u l a r y a t t h e rate o f o n e w o r d a m i n u t e . W e w i l l p l a c e
heaviest e m p h a s i s in this chapter on m n e m o n i c t e c h n i q u e s . Next, we w i l l discuss
the u s e o f e x t e r n a l s o u r c e s o f i n f o r m a t i o n , s u c h a s l i b r a r i e s a n d r e f e r e n c e b o o k s .
Finally, we w i l l discuss notes and r e m i n d e r s — t h a t is, self-generated external
memory aids such as lecture notes, and describe their use in solving particular
memory problems.
M N E M O N I C T E C H N I Q U E S : THE NEED
E x t e r n a l m e m o r y a i d s a r e v e r y u s e f u l i n a w i d e v a r i e t y o f s i t u a t i o n s . T h e r e are
many practical situations, h o w e v e r , in w h i c h it is either necessary or very con-
v e n i e n t for u s t o h a v e i n f o r m a t i o n s t o r e d i n o u r m e m o r i e s .
Imagine y o u r s e l f at a cocktail party; y o u r host steers y o u to a g r o u p of p e o p l e
standing together w h o cordially introduce t h e m s e l v e s . Y o u i m m e d i a t e l y w h i p out
your pad and p e n c i l and write d o w n their names and distinguishing features, in
o r d e r t o r e m e m b e r t h e i r n a m e s a n d f a c e s . R u m o r s i m m e d i a t e l y c i r c l e that y o u are
a. a n a r c o t i c s a g e n t , b. an e m i s s a r y f r o m t h e C I A , or c. a d i v o r c e l a w y e r l o o k i n g for
e v i d e n c e . O b v i o u s l y , this use of external m e m o r y d o e s not reflect good social
manners and is not encouraged.
T h e p r e v i o u s e x a m p l e is o n e of the most c o m m o n situations r e q u i r i n g internal
m e m o r y s k i l l s . I n s o c i a l a n d b u s i n e s s m e e t i n g s , w e are e x p e c t e d t o s t o r e n a m e - f a c e
connections internally. T h e " W h a t w a s your n a m e a g a i n ? " routine certainly isn't
flattering, a n d e v e n t u a l l y i t b e c o m e s insulting. N u m e r o u s other e x a m p l e s c a n b e
cited. In speaking a foreign language, most of the vocabulary and grammar rules
must be stored internally. As a practical matter, o n e can use a dictionary only rarely
in conversation. T h e same applies to writing. Efficiency of writing is greatly
reduced if you must consult the dictionary frequently to c h e c k spelling. Also, typing
s p e e d suffers h o r r i b l y i f y o u h a v e t o m a k e f r e q u e n t r e f e r e n c e t o t h e k e y b o a r d . I n
football, y o u h a v e to r e m e m b e r the plays, and on the stage, y o u must r e m e m b e r
y o u r l i n e s . I n m a n y s c h o o l s i t u a t i o n s , s u c h a s t e s t t a k i n g , t h e t a s k i s e x a c t l y that o f
storing information internally.
S o m e students take the v i e w that there is no p u r p o s e in l e a r n i n g information
c o n t a i n e d i n t e x t b o o k s b e c a u s e o n e c a n a l w a y s l o o k i t u p . T h e r e are s o m e c a s e s i n
w h i c h t h i s v i e w i s j u s t i f i e d . W e don't w a n t t o m e m o r i z e t a b l e s o f l o g a r i t h m s o r
t r i g o n o m e t r i c f u n c t i o n s . H o w e v e r , t h e r e are m a n y c a s e s i n w h i c h i t i s n o t j u s t i f i e d .
I m a g i n e v i s i t i n g a doctor w h o has a great m e d i c a l library b u t d o e s n ' t k n o w the
contents. Y o u say, " D o c , I hurt right h e r e . " D o c says, " R i g h t there, e h ! O K , I h a v e
n o i d e a w h a t t h a t m e a n s , b u t I'll h i t t h e m e d i c a l b o o k s r i g h t a w a y t o s e e i f I c a n t u r n
a n y t h i n g u p . I'll g i v e y o u a c a l l i n a f e w w e e k s i f w e ' r e g o i n g t o n e e d a n y t e s t s . "
Finally, there are situations i n w h i c h external m e m o r y w o u l d b e better b u t w e
j u s t d o n ' t h a v e p e n c i l a n d p a p e r a v a i l a b l e a t t h e m o m e n t . I t i s for s i t u a t i o n s l i k e
these that w e r e c o m m e n d u s i n g the s e v e n m e m o r y aids w e are about t o describe,
a s w e l l a s s u c h v a r i a t i o n s a n d c o m b i n a t i o n s o f t h e m a s y o u m a y i n v e n t for y o u r o w n
special needs.
In the sections w h i c h follow, we will describe seven types of m n e m o n i c tech-
niques or m e m o r y aids:
1. acronyms and acrostics
2. rhyme-keys
3. multiple-keys
4. the m e t h o d of loci
5. the keyword method
6. the image-name technique, and
7. chaining.
THE BASIS O F M N E M O N I C T E C H N I Q U E
T h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f m n e m o n i c t e c h n i q u e s d e p e n d s o n four m e m o r y p r i n c i -
p l e s : 1. i n d e x i n g , 2. s w i t c h i n g to an easier m e m o r y task, 3. c h u n k i n g , and 4. e l a b o -
ration. T h e last t h r e e p r i n c i p l e s s h o u l d b e familiar t o y o u from r e a d i n g C h a p t e r 4 .
S w i t c h i n g to an e a s i e r m e m o r y task refers to the s e q u e n c e of retrieval tasks o r d e r e d
from m o s t t o l e a s t d i f f i c u l t : u n c u e d r e c a l l , c u e d r e c a l l , r e c o g n i t i o n , a n d s a v i n g s . T h e
most usual application of this principle in m n e m o n i c s is to c h a n g e an u n c u e d recall
task i n t o a c u e d r e c a l l task.
I n d e x i n g , the only principle not d i s c u s s e d in C h a p t e r 4, is familiar to y o u in
another context. Dictionaries contain an enormous amount of useful information in
the form of w o r d s paired w i t h their definitions. T h i s information w o u l d be very
h a r d t o r e t r i e v e i f t h e w o r d s w e r e a r r a n g e d a t r a n d o m . F o r t u n a t e l y , d i c t i o n a r i e s are
i n d e x e d . T h a t is, t h e y are a r r a n g e d i n a n o r d e r l y w a y ( a l p h a b e t i c a l l y ) s o t h a t w e c a n
q u i c k l y f i n d t h e w o r d w e are i n t e r e s t e d i n w i t h o u t a n e x h a u s t i v e s e a r c h .
M o r e generally, an index is any organized set of c u e s to information. In m e m -
ory, a n i n d e x i s a n o r g a n i z e d s e t o f c u e s (in t h e s e n s e o f c u e d r e c a l l ) t o i n f o r m a t i o n
in memory. T h e r h y m e - k e y method, discussed b e l o w , provides an excellent illus-
tration of the a p p l i c a t i o n of i n d e x i n g in m n e m o n i c s .
A s y o u r e a d a b o u t e a c h t e c h n i q u e , try t o i d e n t i f y t h e m e m o r y p r i n c i p l e s o n
w h i c h it relies.
Using M e m o r y Effectively 95
A c r o n y m s and A c r o s t i c s
I f y o u try t o r e m e m b e r t h e n a m e s o f t h e G r e a t L a k e s w i t h o u t h e l p (that is, a s

a free recall task), y o u m a y e x p e r i e n c e s o m e difficulty. H o w e v e r , if y o u k n o w that
t h e first l e t t e r s o f t h e n a m e s s p e l l t h e w o r d HOMES, y o u m a y f i n d t h e t a s k m u c h
e a s i e r . HOMES i s t h e k i n d o f m e m o r y a i d c a l l e d a n acronym. A n a c r o n y m i s a w o r d
o r p h r a s e m a d e e n t i r e l y o f l e t t e r s w h i c h are c u e s t o w o r d s w e w a n t t o r e m e m b e r .
O f t e n t h e c u e s are t h e first l e t t e r o r first s y l l a b l e o f t h e w o r d s w e w a n t t o r e m e m b e r .
O t h e r e x a m p l e s o f a c r o n y m s are s h o w n i n T a b l e 1 ( i t e m s 2 , 3 , a n d 4).
T a b l e 1 . A c r o n y m s and A c r o s t i c s
Memory Aid Type Application
HOMES Acronym T h e names of the Great L a k e s (Huron,

Ontario, Michigan, Erie, Superior)
ITCHE Acronym W o r d s d e s i g n a t i n g the four m e m o r y

(pronounced "itchy") principles (Indexing, Task switching,
C/mnking, Elaboration)
R O Y G. BIV Acronym T h e colors of the rainbow (Red,

Orange, Y e l l o w , G r e e n , B l u e , Zndigo,
Violet)
FACE Acronym T h e notes represented by the spaces

of the G-clef
True virtue makes dull Acrostic A s e q u e n c e of navigation terms to be

company. r e m e m b e r e d in order (True, Variation,
Magnetic, Deviation, Compass)
Every good boy does Acrostic T h e notes represented by the lines

fine. o f t h e G-cle'f
On old O l y m p u s top- Acrostic U s e d t o r e m e m b e r t h e first l e t t e r s o f

most top, a F i n n the cranial n e r v e s (Optic, Olfactory,
and G e r m a n v i e w e d Oculomotor, Troclear, Trigeminal,
a hop. Abducens, Facial, Auditory,
Glossopharyngeal, Vagus, Accessory,
Hypoglossal)
A n acrostic i s a s e n t e n c e o r r h y m e i n w h i c h t h e first l e t t e r o f e a c h w o r d i s a c u e .
I n t h e a c r o s t i c , " T r u e v i r t u e m e a n s d u l l c o m p a n y , " t h e first l e t t e r o f e a c h w o r d i s
a cue to a s e q u e n c e of terms relating to the m a g n e t i c c o m p a s s : " t r u e , uariation,
magnetic, deviation, c o m p a s s . " O t h e r e x a m p l e s of acrostics are s h o w n in T a b l e 1
(items 6 a n d 7).
Exercises
I n v e n t a c r o n y m s o r a c r o s t i c s for e a c h o f t h e f o l l o w i n g :
1. A d o u b l e d c o n s o n a n t is p r e c e d e d by a s h o r t v o w e l .
2 . T h e first 1 3 states o f t h e u n i o n i n o r d e r o f t h e i r a d m i s s i o n t o t h e u n i o n : D e l a -
ware, Pennsylvania, N e w Jersey, Georgia, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Mary-
land, South C a r o l i n a , N e w H a m p s h i r e , Virginia, N e w York, North C a r o l i n a , and
Rhode Island.
3. T h e names of the Great Lakes in order of size: Ontario, Erie, Michigan, Huron,
Superior.
4. G e o l o g i c a l periods of the P a l e o z o i c era from earliest to m o s t recsent: C a m b r i a n ,

Ordovician, Silurian, Devonian, Mississippian, Pennsylvanian, Permian.
5 . T h e p l a n e t s i n o r d e r o f d i s t a n c e from the sun: M e r c u r y , V e n i is, Earth, M a r s ,
Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, N e p t u n e , Pluto.
The Rhyme-Key M e t h o d
T h i s m e t h o d i s u s e f u l for r e m e m b e r i n g lists o f o r d e r e d o r u n o r a l e r e d i t e m s s u c h
a s s h o p p i n g lists o r c h e c k l i s t s . T o u s e t h e m e t h o d , y o u m u s t first m i e m o r i z e t h e list
of k e y words r h y m e d w i t h the s e q u e n c e of digits s h o w n in T a b l e 2.
T a b l e 2. Digits and Rhymed Key W o r d s
Digit Rhymed K e y Wc d
one gun
two shoe :
"
three tree
four door
five hive
six bricks
seven heaven
eight gate
nine mine
ten hen
S u p p o s e t h a t w e w a n t t o r e m e m b e r a s h o p p i n g list c o n s i s t i n g o f t h e f o l l o w i n g
items: onions, coffee, bananas, soup, spaghetti, cola, e g g s , bread, and milk. W i t h the
r h y m e - k e y m e t h o d , w e w i l l c r e a t e a n i m a g e r e l a t i n g t h e i t e m s o n t h e s h o p p i n g list
t o t h e s e q u e n c e o f r h y m e d k e y w o r d s . T h u s t h e first i t e m , " o n i o n s , " m i g h t b e
associated to the k e y w o r d " g u n " through an image of a gun shooting a hole in an
onion or an i m a g e of a g u n shooting onions as b u l l e t s . A n y i m a g e that depicts a
striking interaction b e t w e e n the r h y m e d k e y w o r d and the object to be r e m e m b e r e d
w i l l d o . W h e n t h e first i m a g e i s c r e a t e d , t h e s e c o n d i t e m i s r e l a t e d t o t h e k e y w o r d
r h y m e d w i t h t w o , and so on. T h u s , we m i g h t picture a shoe filled w i t h ground
coffee, a b a n a n a h a n g i n g on a tree, a door inset w i t h d o z e n s of soup cans, or b e e s
carrying strands of l i m p spaghetti to their h i v e , a b o y t h r o w i n g bricks at cola bottles,
c l o u d s (in h e a v e n ) s h a p e d l i k e e g g s , a g a t e s e t i n t o t h e s i d e o f a l o a f o f b r e a d , a n d
milk pouring from the m o u t h of a mine.
I f t h e m e t h o d i s t o w o r k w e l l , y o u m u s t first h a v e T a b l e 2 t h o r o u g h l y m e m o -
rized, and y o u must generate vivid interactive images relating the items to be
remembered to the key words.
Exercises
Study the r h y m e d k e y pairs s h o w n in T a b l e 2 until y o u can r e p r o d u c e t h e m

r a p i d l y a n d e a s i l y . T h e n m e m o r i z e t h e f o l l o w i n g s h o p p i n g lists u s i n g t h e r h y m e -
key method:
1 . hat, g l o v e s , s h o e s , n e e d l e s , g l a s s e s , u m b r e l l a , p e n , gift w r a p , s c o t c h t a p e , r a z o r
blades
2 . p e r c h , c h e e s e , g i n g e r r o o t , salt, o n i o n s , c a s h e w s , s a n d w i c h b a g s , s t e a k , c o o k i e s
3. thread, curtains, light bulbs, saw blades, fuses, masking tape
Multiple-Key M e t h o d
T h i s m e t h o d i s a v a r i a t i o n o f t h e r h y m e - k e y m e t h o d a n d i s e s p e c i a l l y u s e f u l for
r e m e m b e r i n g t e l e p h o n e n u m b e r s . T h e m e t h o d r e q u i r e s a fair a m o u n t o f intial
effort. T a b l e 3 , o r a s i m i l a r c h a r t o f y o u r o w n d e v i c e , m u s t b e t h o r o u g h l y m e m o -
r i z e d . T h e effort i n v o l v e d i n l e a r n i n g T a b l e 3 i s l e s s t h a n i t a p p e a r s a t first g l a n c e ,
s i n c e t h e k e y for e a c h d i g i t c a n b e l e a r n e d a s a s i n g l e i m a g e , a n d t h e f o u r w o r d s i n
t h e k e y r h y m e w i t h t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g d i g i t . T o i l l u s t r a t e , t h e f o u r k e y w o r d s for
zero, or " n a u g h t , " can be stored in a single image of a hot d a u g h t e r w h o is standing
on h e r n e w l y - b o u g h t yacht. Further, the last c o l u m n in T a b l e 3 is identical to the
last c o l u m n i n T a b l e 2 , w h i c h y o u a l r e a d y k n o w .
Table 3. A Chart for Using t h e Multiple-Key M e t h o d
Digit Modifier Actor Act Object-Place
0 hot daughter bought yacht

(nought)
1 funny nun runs gun
2 blue gnu flew shoe
3 wee me skis tree
4 snoring whore tore door
5 jive wife arrives hive
6 quick hick fix bricks
7 raving Kevin severs heaven
8 crated Beethoven inflates gate
9 fine lion dines | mine
T h e h a r d p a r t o f r e m e m b e r i n g a t e l e p h o n e n u m b e r i s r e m e m b e r i n g t h e last
four d i g i t s . S o w e w i l l c o n c e n t r a t e o n t h a t first. T o r e m e m b e r t h e n u m b e r 9 6 3 - 8 7 2 5 ,
we w i l l take the last four digits in order a n d c o d e t h e m as a modifier, an actor, an
act, a n d a n o b j e c t o r p l a c e . T h u s , 8 7 2 5 b e c o m e s " c r a t e d K e v i n f l e w t o a h i v e . "
N o t i c e that t h e o r d e r o f t h e n u m b e r s i s i m p o r t a n t i n d e t e r m i n i n g t h e i m a g e . T h e
number 7528 b e c o m e s "a raving g n u arrives at the gate," and the n u m b e r 5872
b e c o m e s " a j i v e B e e t h o v e n s e v e r s a s h o e . " A r t i c l e s a n d p r e p o s i t i o n s c a n b e in-
serted to assure the grammaticality of the phrase.
T h e e x c h a n g e (the first t h r e e d i g i t s o f a t e l e p h o n e n u m b e r ) i s o f t e n e a s y t o
r e m e m b e r w i t h o u t a m e m o r y aid since the n u m b e r s we call most f r e q u e n t l y — l o c a l
n u m b e r s — e i t h e r h a v e t h e s a m e e x c h a n g e o r are d i v i d e d i n t o a v e r y f e w e x c h a n g e
areas. I f y o u d o w a n t t o u s e a m e m o r y a i d for r e m e m b e r i n g a n e x c h a n g e , h o w e v e r ,
t h e m e t h o d r e q u i r e s o n e m o d i f i c a t i o n — a s y m b o l for a m i s s i n g n u m b e r . W e w i l l u s e
the image of a h o l e to r e p r e s e n t a m i s s i n g n u m b e r . T h u s the n u m b e r 963 can be
represented as "a fine hick skis into a h o l e . "
Exercises
1 . R e c i t e t h e list o f i m a g e s for t h e d i g i t s .
2 . G e n e r a t e i m a g e s ( a n d w o r d s , w h e n p o s s i b l e ) for t h e f o l l o w i n g n u m b e r s :
a. 2 8 9 3
b. 5106
c. 7 4 5 4
d. 8888
3 . G e n e r a t e i m a g e s for t h e f o l l o w i n g n u m b e r s :
a. 5 5 5 - 1 2 1 2 (directory assistance—information)
b . (292) 4 5 6 - 1 4 1 4 ( t h e W h i t e H o u s e )
c . 3 9 1 - 9 5 0 0 (the " t i m e " n u m b e r )
4 . M e m o r i z e t h i s s o c i a l s e c u r i t y n u m b e r (or y o u r o w n ) :
420-14-3170
5. M e m o r i z e TT to n i n e p l a c e s :
3.14159265
The M e t h o d of Loci
T h i s m e t h o d , l i k e t h e r h y m e - k e y m e t h o d , i s e s p e c i a l l y u s e f u l for r e m e m b e r i n g
u n r e l a t e d lists o f o b j e c t s . B e c a u s e i t r e t a i n s i t e m s i n a s p e c i f i c s e q u e n c e , i t i s a l s o
u s e f u l for m e m o r i z i n g i t e m s that m u s t b e m i x e d i n a d e f i n i t e o r d e r , s u c h a s i n g r e d i -
ents in a r e c i p e , or c h e m i c a l s in a laboratory e x p e r i m e n t . T h e m e t h o d is of v e r y
a n c i e n t o r i g i n a n d w a s u s e d b y R o m a n orators w h e n d e l i v e r i n g s p e e c h e s .
To u s e the m e t h o d of loci, y o u must select a place such as a house or a b u i l d i n g
that y o u are v e r y familiar with. N e x t c h o o s e a c o n v e n i e n t starting p l a c e s u c h as a
front d o o r o r m a i n e n t r a n c e a n d i m a g i n e y o u r s e l f w a l k i n g s l o w l y t h r o u g h t h e b u i l d -
ing. As y o u walk, choose a s e q u e n c e of 20 distinct loci—clearly defined places like
a sofa o r a r e f r i g e r a t o r — w h e r e y o u c a n i m a g i n e p u t t i n g t h e o b j e c t s y o u are t r y i n g
Figure 1. A Loci M a p
Using Memory Effectively 99
t o r e m e m b e r . T o a v o i d c o n f u s i o n , d o n o t c r o s s y o u r p a t h ; t h a t is, " w a l k " i n e a c h a r e a

only o n c e . F i g u r e 1 s h o w s the h o u s e that I use and my c h o s e n path through it w i t h
2 0 l o c i . T h e first l o c u s i s t h e front d o o r ; t h e s e c o n d , a r a d i a t o r , t h e t h i r d , t h e
refrigerator, etc. It is important, if the m e t h o d is to w o r k w e l l , that y o u identify a
u n i q u e p a t h w i t h a w e l l - d e f i n e d s t a r t i n g p l a c e a n d a v e r y d e f i n i t e s e t o f l o c i s o that
w h e n y o u are r e t r i e v i n g i n f o r m a t i o n y o u c a n r e p e a t e x a c t l y t h e s a m e s e q u e n c e o f
loci that y o u u s e d w h e n storing the information.
T o a p p l y t h e m e t h o d o f l o c i i n l e a r n i n g a list o f i t e m s s u c h a s t h o s e s h o w n i n
T a b l e 4 , y o u m u s t a s s o c i a t e t h e i t e m s o f t h e list s u c c e s s i v e l y t o t h e s e q u e n c e o f l o c i .
T h u s , s i n c e t h e first i t e m i s a n u m b r e l l a , a n d m y first l o c u s i s t h e front d o o r , I
imagine the u m b r e l l a stuck into the m i d d l e of the door. I i m a g i n e the s e c o n d item,
the sea gull, squatting u n c o m f o r t a b l y on the radiator; the third item, the water-
m e l o n , falling out of the refrigerator, etc.
T a b l e 4. A W o r d List To Practice t h e M e t h o d of Loci
1. u m b r e l l a 1 1 . railroad tie
2. sea gull 12. brick
3. watermelon 13. hippopotamus
4. Picasso painting 14. fire
5. elephant 15. dog
6. telephone 16. pizza
7. cricket 17. uncle
8. waterfall 18. candlestick
9. a u t o m o b i l e tire 19. spinach
10. snow shovel 20. ivy vines
It helps in u s i n g the m e t h o d to break y o u r loci into groups of five. If y o u use

a s q u a r e h o u s e for y o u r l o c i , a c o n v e n i e n t a n d n a t u r a l w a y t o d o t h i s i s t o p l a c e f i v e
loci along e a c h of the four w a l l s of the h o u s e . B r e a k i n g the loci up in this w a y m a k e s
i t e a s i e r t o r e t r i e v e a s i n g l e i t e m i n t h e m i d d l e o f t h e list. F o r e x a m p l e , i f y o u w a n t
to retrieve item 12, you can j u m p ahead to locus 10 at one corner of the house and
then " w a l k " t w o loci.
Exercises
1. M a k e a d i a g r a m of y o u r loci similar to F i g u r e 1.
2. M e m o r i z e the following recipe using the m e t h o d of loci:
Veal Cutlets—Parma Style
Beat six veal cutlets lightly to flatten them. Sprinkle with salt and fry in butter on both
sides in a heavy frying pan. Sprinkle the cutlets with Vt pound c h o p p e d ham, 2-3 sprigs
chopped parsley, A c u p grated parmesan cheese, and 2V2 tablespoons marsala wine.
l
Serve as soon as the c h e e s e begins to melt.
3. M e m o r i z e the f o l l o w i n g lists:
List 1 List 2
1. an e g g 1. cheese
2. T h o m a s Jefferson 2. Budapest
3. a freight train 3. John Milton
4. a water glass 4. thread
5. the T h a m e s R i v e r 5. a yak
6. cotton c a n d y 6. cadmium
7. a rose b u s h 7. a door
8. Ty C o b b 8. the Antarctic
9. a fountain 9. tennis
10. Beethoven's Second Symphony 10. a robin
List 1 List 2
11. a horse 11. jurisprudence

12. an ice cream cone 12. a vacuum cleaner
13. philosophy 13. Spiro A g n e w
14. Ghana 14. the P y r e n e e s
15. a pencil 15. maple syrup
16. a carrot 16. a light bulb
17. the Pacific O c e a n 17. Bulgaria
18. Galileo 18. summer
19. an a u t o m o b i l e tire 19. honesty
20. jello 20. Cezanne
Repair manual. I f y o u h a v e t r o u b l e w i t h t h e m e t h o d — t h a t is, i f y o u f i n d y o u

r e m e m b e r less than 17 or 18 out of 20 items—try the following:
1. Recheck your loci. M a k e a n o t h e r d i a g r a m of y o u r l o c i a n d c h e c k it a g a i n s t t h e

diagram y o u m a d e i n E x e r c i s e 1 . B e sure that y o u k n o w w i t h o u t any d o u b t
e x a c t l y w h a t y o u r l o c i a r e a n d w h a t o r d e r t h e y c o m e in.
2. Be sure that you are generating striking interactive images. If y o u are s t o r i n g t h e
item " t o w e l " at the locus "sink," don't just place the towel there neatly folded
and l o o k i n g as if it b e l o n g e d . M a k e the t o w e l and the sink interact. I m a g i n e that
t h e w a t e r i s t u r n e d o n a n d i t i s s o a k i n g t h e t o w e l . I f y o u are s t o r i n g t h e u m b r e l l a
o n t h e s t o v e , l e t t h e s t o v e s e t fire t o t h e u m b r e l l a .
T h e m e t h o d o f l o c i h a s p r o v e d i t s e l f q u i t e e f f e c t i v e i n i m p r o v i n g m e m o r y for
lists. S e v e n t y - f i v e o f m y s t u d e n t s w e r e g i v e n a m e m o r y t e s t b o t h b e f o r e a n d after
l e a r n i n g t h e m e t h o d o f l o c i . I n b o t h c a s e s , t h e s t u d e n t s h e a r d a list o f 2 0 i t e m s r e a d
o n l y o n c e a t t h e rate o f o n e i t e m e v e r y s e v e n s e c o n d s . T h e m e d i a n score o n the
pre-test w a s 7; on the post-test, 17. T h e difference w a s v e r y r e l i a b l e statistically.
S o m e students h a v e e x p r e s s e d c o n c e r n that the m e t h o d o f loci w i l l b e c o m e less
and less e f f e c t i v e as o n e c o n t i n u e s to u s e it to learn s u c c e s s i v e lists. T h e w o r r y is
that i m a g e s c o n s t r u c t e d for r e m e m b e r i n g e a r l i e r lists w i l l b e c o m e c o n f u s e d w i t h
i m a g e s for t h e c u r r e n t list, a n d that t h i s c o n f u s i o n w i l l g r o w a s t h e n u m b e r o f lists
w e l e a r n b y t h i s m e t h o d i n c r e a s e s . C o n f u s i o n s o f t h i s sort s o m e t i m e s o c c u r i n u s i n g
the m e t h o d , b u t I d o n ' t b e l i e v e that t h e y constitute an important limitation. To test
my belief, I asked p e o p l e to use the m e t h o d several times in succession. T h e y
l e a r n e d a list, w e r e t e s t e d o n it, i m m e d i a t e l y l e a r n e d a s e c o n d list, w e r e t e s t e d o n
t h e s e c o n d l i s t , a n d s o o n . I r e a s o n e d t h a t l e a r n i n g t h e lists i n i m m e d i a t e s u c c e s s i o n
w o u l d c a u s e m o r e c o n f u s i o n t h a n w o u l d l e a r n i n g lists w i d e l y s e p a r a t e d i n t i m e .
T h u s , t h i s t e s t s h o u l d b e a s e v e r e o n e for t h e m e t h o d o f l o c i . T h e r e s u l t s are s h o w n
i n T a b l e 5 . C l e a r l y the m e t h o d holds u p quite w e l l e v e n u n d e r this s e v e r e test.
T a b l e 5. Results of Using the M e t h o d of Loci To Learn S u c c e s s i v e Lists
Successive Lists L e a r n e d
Subject 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 20 20 16 19 20 19
2 19 20 17 15 18 14
3 18 20 20 18
4 20 19 20
5 16 13 16 12 14 14
The K e y w o r d M e t h o d
T h e k e y w o r d m e t h o d i s e s p e c i a l l y u s e f u l for l e a r n i n g f o r e i g n l a n g u a g e v o c a b u -
lary. W e w i l l i l l u s t r a t e t h e m e t h o d b y a p p l y i n g i t i n l e a r n i n g t h e m e a n i n g s o f t h e
list o f I t a l i a n w o r d s i n T a b l e 6 . C o n s i d e r t h e first I t a l i a n w o r d , agnello. T h e I t a l i a n
pronunciation [AN Y E L L ' O H ] sounds quite similar to the E n g l i s h w o r d s " A N N
Y E L L O W , " o u r c h o s e n k e y w o r d s for agnello. N e x t w e w i l l r e l a t e t h e k e y w o r d s t o
the E n g l i s h translation: " l a m b . " T o d o this w e can create a n i m a g e o f a girl, A n n ,
l e a d i n g a b r i g h t y e l l o w l a m b . T h e s e c o n d w o r d , pomidoro [ P A L M E E D O O R ' O H ] ,
sounds like the English words " B A L M Y D O O R " o r " B O M B H I S D O O R . " For the
first k e y w o r d , w e c o u l d i m a g i n e a d o o r w a y i n a t r o p i c a l r e g i o n s u r r o u n d e d b y p a l m
trees and tomato plants. F o r the s e c o n d k e y w o r d we c o u l d i m a g i n e a man's door
being bombarded with exploding tomatoes.
Table 6. Italian M e n u W o r d s
Word in Italian Pronunciation Key Word English Meaning
a g n e F lo an yell' oh ann y e l l o w lamb

bis tec' ca biss tech' ah b e e sticker steak
for m a g ' g i o for m o d g e j o for m o d j o e cheese
ci pol' le chee pole a cheap ollie onions
pom i dor' o palm ee door oh !

b a
ldoor
m y
tomatoes
palmyj
man' zo m o n zo man sew beef
rip i e n ' o ree pee-a' no rip p i a n o stuffed
tor' ta tore tah (ex) tort a cake
in sa l a ' ta in sah lah' tah it's a l o t t a ' salad
(salad)
uo' va w o e vah woven eggs
mai al' e m a h y a h ' lay my alley pork, p i g
c a r c i o ' fi car c h o h ' fe car s h o w fee artichokes
m e lan zan' e m e h lahn zahn' a zany melon eggplant
vi tel' lo vee tell' oh v telly veal
pol' lo pole' low polo chicken
fun' ghi foon ghee fun g e e s e mushrooms
pes' ce pesh shay passion fish
bi an' co b e e yon' co bee uncle white
sal s i c ' c e sahl see chay sol's itchy sausage
r o s ' so row sow row sow red
T h e k e y w o r d m e t h o d , then, consists of two steps: First, one selects as a key-

word an E n g l i s h w o r d that r e s e m b l e s the foreign w o r d in pronunciation. As is the
c a s e i n u s i n g " b o m b h i s d o o r " a s a k e y w o r d for p o m i d o r o , t h e r e s e m b l a n c e n e e d
n o t b e p e r f e c t . S e c o n d , o n e c r e a t e s a s t r i k i n g i n t e r a c t i v e i m a g e r e l a t i n g t h e key--
word and the E n g l i s h meaning. T h e images must be actively related, as we saw in
t h e last c h a p t e r , t o p r o m o t e r e t r i e v a l .
Exercise 1
I n T a b l e 6 , w e h a v e s u g g e s t e d k e y w o r d s for e a c h o f t h e 2 0 I t a l i a n w o r d s .
S p e n d a b o u t 10 m i n u t e s , u s i n g the k e y w o r d m e t h o d , to learn all 20 of the
Italian w o r d s . B e sure t o g e n e r a t e a n interactive i m a g e relating the k e y w o r d
with the E n g l i s h meaning. This is a crucial step in the k e y w o r d method. T h e n
cover the p a g e so that only the Italian w o r d s are s h o w i n g a n d test yourself.
Table 7. Arabic Menu Words
Word in Arabic Keyword English Meaning
loo'bee blue bean green beans

ba mi'a bomb okra
koo'sa clues green squash
wa'rak w a r rock leaves
a reesh' a reach grape
la'ban lob bun yogurt
kib'bee kb meat and wheat
na y e e ' i e raw
ta b o o ' l e e table leg mixture
ba'ba ga nouge' papa canoes mashed eggplant
hom'mos home moss chick peas
bit' h e n ' e e bit any sesame
bas zel'la b u z z ella sweet peas
mi'shee mishmosh stuffed
mal foof m a l e foot cabbage leaves
na mool' a mule butter cookie
na mu'ra no more coconut cake
ke na'fee c a n offer shredded wheat cake
niss oo niss not so nice half and half
bak la'wa bake lava h o n e y pastry
Exercise 2
S t u d y t h e A r a b i c m e n u w o r d s i n T a b l e 7 for 1 0 m i n u t e s b y t h e k e y w o r d
m e t h o d (time yourself). T h e n test y o u r s e l f b y c o v e r i n g all b u t the A r a b i c w o r d s .
Generating Keywords
I n t h e t w o e x e r c i s e s a b o v e , w e h a v e p r o v i d e d k e y w o r d s for y o u . N o w , t o m a k e
t h e t e c h n i q u e m o r e g e n e r a l l y u s e f u l , y o u s h o u l d p r a c t i c e g e n e r a t i n g k e y w o r d s for
yourself. T a b l e 8 s h o w s 20 G e r m a n words, their pronunciations, and their m e a n -
ings. S p e n d 20 minutes studying these words by the k e y w o r d method, generating
y o u r o w n k e y w o r d s . T h e n test y o u r s e l f b y c o v e r i n g the p a g e s o that o n l y the
G e r m a n w o r d s are s h o w i n g .
W h e n k e y w o r d s are p r o v i d e d , we estimate that it takes a typical student a b o u t
30 s e c o n d s p e r w o r d to m e m o r i z e a list of foreign l a n g u a g e w o r d s by the k e y w o r d
m e t h o d . W h e n k e y w o r d s a r e n o t p r o v i d e d , t h e s a m e task t a k e s a b o u t 6 0 s e c o n d s p e r
word.
T h e m e t h o d a p p e a r s t o w o r k w e l l for m o s t s t u d e n t s . E i g h t y - f i v e o f m y s t u d e n t s
w e r e g i v e n 10 m i n u t e s to learn the Italian w o r d s s h o w n in T a b l e 6 ( w h i c h t h e y had
n o t s e e n b e f o r e ) , w i t h t h e k e y w o r d s p r o v i d e d . G i v e n a p o s t t e s t , 6 6 p e r c e n t g o t all
20 correct, 19 p e r c e n t got 18 or 19 correct, and 15 p e r c e n t got 17 or f e w e r correct.
Worries. S o m e p e o p l e h a v e e x p r e s s e d c o n c e r n t h a t b y u s i n g t h e k e y w o r d
method, the language student's m e m o r y will be cluttered with meaningless key-
w o r d s w h i c h , w h i l e u s e f u l for i n i t i a l l e a r n i n g , w i l l l a t e r i n t e r f e r e w i t h t h e n a t u r a l
use of l a n g u a g e . Atkinson (1975), w h o has p i o n e e r e d research on the use of this
m e t h o d , has i n v e s t i g a t e d this p r o b l e m . He finds in g e n e r a l that the student's con-
sciousness of the k e y w o r d s fades as familiarity w i t h the language increases. T h u s
i t a p p e a r s t h a t t h e k e y w o r d , w h i c h i s u s e f u l for i n i t i a l l e a r n i n g , d i s a p p e a r s w i t h o u t
harmful after-effects, like a b u i l d e r ' s scaffolding w h e n it is no longer n e e d e d .
A second frequently expressed worry relates to pronunciation. Since the key-
Table 8 . German Words
German Word Pronunciation English Word
abend ah-bent evening

ei eye egg
essen ess-en to e a t
flugzeug flook-tsoyk airplane
friihstuck free-schteeck breakfast
gasthof gahsst-hahf hotel
kartoffel kart-off-el potato
kellner kel-ner waiter
mittag mit-tahg noon
morgen morg-en morning
nicht nikt not
rouchen rowk-en to smoke
stadt shtahtt city
strasse shtrahs-e street
trinken trink-en to drink
wann vahnn when
wo vok where
zeit tsite time
zeitung tsy-toong newspaper
zug tsook train
word provides only an approximation to the correct pronunciation of the foreign

word, s o m e h a v e b e e n c o n c e r n e d that students u s i n g the m e t h o d m a y learn incor-
rect pronunciations w h i c h w i l l later be hard to u n l e a r n . T h i s is certainly a p r o b l e m
t o b e a v o i d e d i n u s i n g t h e m e t h o d . S i n g e r ( 1 9 7 6 ) h a s s h o w n , h o w e v e r , that t h e
k e y w o r d m e t h o d can actually be u s e d as an aid in a v o i d i n g errors in pronunciation.
F o r e x a m p l e , i n l e a r n i n g t h e F r e n c h w o r d l e pantalon, h e r s t u d e n t s w o u l d t y p i c a l l y
h a v e m i s p r o n o u n c e d t h e first s y l l a b l e o f t h e w o r d b y u s i n g a s h o r t " a . " " L e p a n t a -
lon" looks like " p a n t , " not " p o n t , " as it should be p r o n o u n c e d . By choosing the
keyword, "Pontiac," the mispronunciation was avoided.
T h e k e y w o r d m e t h o d m a y also b e u s e d t o learn spelling. S u p p o s e y o u w a n t e d
to l e a r n to s p e l l t h e w o r d s peasant, existence, a n d determine. F i r s t , y o u m u s t
i d e n t i f y a n E n g l i s h w o r d (or w o r d s ) w h i c h c o n t a i n s t h e " h a r d - t o - s p e l l " p a r t o f t h e
target w o r d . W h e r e p o s s i b l e , t h e k e y w o r d s m a y c o n t a i n t h e w h o l e w o r d . T h u s , w e
g e t t h e k e y w o r d s , " P E A S A N T " for PEASANT, " T E N " for EXISTENCE, a n d
" D E T E R M I N E " for DETERMINE. N e x t , y o u m u s t c o n s t r u c t a n i m a g e o r s t o r y
r e l a t i n g t h e k e y w o r d s t o t h e t a r g e t w o r d . T h u s , for t h e first w o r d , w e m a y c o n s t r u c t
t h e s e n t e n c e , " P e a s a n t s e a t p e a s w i t h ants o n t h e m " ; for t h e s e c o n d , " E x i s t e n c e h a s
t e n m i n u s o n e l e t t e r s " ; a n d for t h e t h i r d , " T h e c o a l c o m p a n y w a n t s t o d i g a h o l e i n
m y front y a r d b u t I a m d e t e r m i n e d t o d e t e r t h e m i n e . " T h i s t e c h n i q u e h a s b e e n
d e s c r i b e d in d e t a i l by S h e f t e r ( 1 9 7 6 ) in h i s b o o k , Six Minutes a Day to Perfect
Spelling.
Exercise
Use the k e y w o r d m e t h o d to learn the following spelling words:
acceptable
cameos
courtesy
extraordinary
jurisdiction
mausoleum
pigeon
sovereign
The I m a g e - N a m e T e c h n i q u e
T h i s p r o c e d u r e i s m o s t f r e q u e n t l y u s e d for l e a r n i n g p e o p l e ' s n a m e s , b u t i t c a n
a l s o b e u s e d for a s s o c i a t i n g p a i n t i n g s w i t h t h e i r t i t l e s , or, m o r e g e n e r a l l y , i m a g e s
with names.
Let's suppose y o u w a n t to learn the names of some people. T h e image-name
t e c h n i q u e i n v o l v e s a n a l y z i n g b o t h t h e f a c e a n d t h e n a m e , a n d t h e n s e a r c h i n g for
a n y r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n t h e t w o that c a n b e f o u n d . A n a l y s i s o f t h e f a c e i n v o l v e s
s e a r c h i n g for i n d i v i d u a l f e a t u r e s s u c h a s c l o s e l y - s e t e y e s , h i g h h a i r l i n e , l a r g e e a r s ,
o r h e a v y e y e b r o w s , o r for o v e r a l l i m p r e s s i o n s u c h a s " r e m i n d s m e o f a w e a s e l , " o r
" l o o k s like a j u d g e . " T h e features that y o u attend to s h o u l d be p e r m a n e n t o n e s that
are l i k e l y t o b e p r e s e n t w h e n y o u m e e t t h e p e r s o n a g a i n . C l o t h e s o r c h a n g e a b l e
j e w e l r y w o u l d not h e l p y o u learn the name permanently.
A n a l y s i s o f the n a m e i n v o l v e s identification o f parts, r h y m e s , a n d p u n s . A n y
r e l a t i o n t h a t y o u c a n f i n d b e t w e e n t h e a n a l y s i s o f t h e f a c e a n d t h e n a m e i s fair g a m e .
F i g u r e s 2 and 3 s h o w o n e subject's analysis of t w o n a m e s and faces a n d the relations
he found b e t w e e n them.
Exercise
A p p l y the image-name technique the next time y o u m e e t someone new.
T h e i m a g e - n a m e t e c h n i q u e i s h a r d e r for m o s t p e o p l e t h a n t h e t e c h n i q u e s
discussed previously. Prior to learning the image-name t e c h n i q u e , 75 students in
Figure 2. Using t h e Image/Name T e c h n i q u e to Learn G r e g o r y Thurstone's N a m e

Figure 3 . Using t h e I m a g e / N a m e T e c h n i q u e t o Learn D w i g h t D e n t o n ' s N a m e
m y P r o b l e m S o l v i n g c o u r s e w e r e a b l e t o r e m e m b e r a m e d i a n o f six n a m e - f a c e p a i r s
in a list of 20. After l e a r n i n g the t e c h n i q u e , t h e y w e r e a b l e to r e m e m b e r a m e d i a n
of 10.5 n a m e - f a c e pairs. W h i l e this i m p r o v e m e n t is less i m p r e s s i v e than the
i m p r o v e m e n t w i t h the m e t h o d of loci, it is v e r y reliable statistically. Of the 75
s t u d e n t s , 6 6 s h o w e d s o m e i m p r o v e m e n t after l e a r n i n g t h e m e t h o d .
Repair manual. I f y o u are h a v i n g t r o u b l e w i t h t h e i m a g e - n a m e t e c h n i q u e , t h e
difficulty m a y c o m e from i n a d e q u a t e analysis of the n a m e s and faces. T h i s aspect
o f t h e t e c h n i q u e r e q u i r e s c o n s i d e r a b l e effort a n d c o n c e n t r a t i o n i f i t i s t o w o r k
consistently w e l l . Y o u shouldn't e x p e c t m e m o r a b l e relations b e t w e e n names and
f a c e s t o s p r i n g i n t o c o n s c i o u s n e s s e a s i l y . O f t e n y o u w i l l h a v e t o d i g for t h e m .
Practice helps here.
A final word of wisdom. T h e t e c h n i q u e w o n ' t h e l p at all if y o u d o n ' t u s e it. To
get the benefit of the t e c h n i q u e y o u have to get in the habit of a p p l y i n g it w h e n you
meet new people.
Chaining
I n all o f t h e t e c h n i q u e s w e h a v e d i s c u s s e d s o far, t h e m e m o r y c u e a n d t h e
content retrieved w e r e distinct. In the c h a i n i n g t e c h n i q u e , e a c h portion of the
c o n t e n t a s i t i s r e t r i e v e d s e r v e s a s t h e c u e for t h e n e x t r e t r i e v a l . W i t h t h i s t e c h n i q u e ,
t h e u s e r c o n s t r u c t s a s t o r y t h a t i n c o r p o r a t e s e a c h e l e m e n t o f a list t o b e r e m e m b e r e d
i n turn. T h u s , t o r e m e m b e r t h e list: f u d g e , T o r o n t o , N a p o l e o n , p i n , a n t e a t e r , t e n t ,
brick, f l o w e r pot, river, a n d hot d o g , we c a n create a story l i k e the f o l l o w i n g : " O n c e
there was a p i e c e of fudge m a d e in Toronto. It was eaten by N a p o l e o n and gave him
a pain in the stomach that felt like a pin. He p u l l e d it out and t h r e w it at an anteater
w h o w a s f r i g h t e n e d a n d r a n i n t o a t e n t w h e r e i t h i t its h e a d a g a i n s t a b r i c k that w a s
just inside, and k n o c k e d o v e r the flower pot on top, w h i c h rolled d o w n to the river
and floated next to an o l d hot d o g . "
T h i s t e c h n i q u e i s u s e f u l for t h e s a m e r a n g e o f t a s k s a s t h e m e t h o d o f l o c i , i.e.,
r e m e m b e r i n g o r d e r e d o r u n o r d e r e d lists o f o b j e c t s . K o h u t ( 1 9 7 6 ) c o m p a r e d t h e s e
t w o m e t h o d s for m e m o r i z i n g m u l t i p l e l i s t s . H e a s k e d s u b j e c t s t o h o l d six lists i n
memory at the same time, three m e m o r i z e d by the m e t h o d of loci and three by the
c h a i n i n g m e t h o d . H e t e s t e d for r e c a l l o f t h e lists after all six h a d b e e n m e m o r i z e d .
I n t h e t e s t s , t h e s u b j e c t w a s g i v e n t h e first w o r d o f t h e l i s t a n d a s k e d t o r e c a l l t h e
rest. K o h u t f o u n d t h a t t h e t w o m e t h o d s w e r e a b o u t e q u a l l y g o o d i f t h e s u b j e c t h a d
to r e m e m b e r b o t h the correct position and the correct list to be scored correct.
H o w e v e r , the m e t h o d of loci was better if the subject just had to r e m e m b e r the
c o r r e c t p o s i t i o n o f t h e w o r d i n its list a n d n o t w h i c h l i s t i t w a s o n . T h e c h a i n i n g
m e t h o d w a s b e t t e r if the subject just had to get the list right b u t not the position.
W H Y D O THE M N E M O N I C T E C H N I Q U E S W O R K ?
As we noted earlier, the m n e m o n i c t e c h n i q u e s d e p e n d on four m e m o r y princi-

p l e s for t h e i r e f f e c t i v e n e s s :
J. Indexing,
2. S w i t c h i n g to an easier m e m o r y task,
3. Chunking, and
4. Elaboration.
A c r o n y m s and acrostics m a k e use of t w o of the principles. T h e acronym
I T C H E , for e x a m p l e , i s a c h u n k w h i c h h e l p s u s r e m e m b e r c u e s t o t h e four m e m o r y
principles. T h e s e c u e s c h a n g e w h a t w o u l d o t h e r w i s e be a free recall task into a
c u e d r e c a l l task. A c r o s t i c s w o r k i n t h e s a m e w a y . T h u s , a c r o n y m s a n d a c r o s t i c s
d e p e n d o n c h u n k i n g a n d o n s w i t c h i n g t o a n e a s i e r m e m o r y task.
T h e r h y m e - k e y m e t h o d m a k e s u s e o f a n u m e r i c a l i n d e x — t h e n u m b e r s from
one t o t e n — t o c u e h i g h l y i m a g e a b l e k e y w o r d s — g u n , shoe, etc. T h e k e y w o r d s are
associated with the items to be r e m e m b e r e d by forming interactive i m a g e s — a
process of elaboration. T h e multiple-key method d e p e n d s on the same principles
as the rhyme-key m e t h o d , as does the m e t h o d of loci. H o w e v e r , the m e t h o d of loci
uses a spatial rather than a n u m e r i c a l index.
T h e k e y w o r d m e t h o d , t h e i m a g e - n a m e t e c h n i q u e , a n d t h e c h a i n i n g m e t h o d all
d e p e n d o n e l a b o r a t i o n o f v a r i o u s sorts. I n t h e c h a i n i n g m e t h o d , t h e e l a b o r a t i o n m a y
b e l a r g e l y s e m a n t i c — w e try t o t e l l o u r s e l v e s a m e a n i n g f u l story a b o u t i t e m s t o b e
r e m e m b e r e d — a n d in the k e y w o r d m e t h o d , it m a y be largely visual, e.g., i m a g e s of
tomatoes thrown at doors. T h e image-name technique encourages both auditory
and visual elaboration.
T a b l e 9 lists t h e s e v e n m n e m o n i c t e c h n i q u e s t o g e t h e r w i t h t h e m e m o r y p r o b -
l e m s t h e y are a p p l i e d to and the m e m o r y principles t h e y e m p l o y .
Constructing Memory Schemes
We h a v e p r e s e n t e d a n u m b e r of s c h e m e s that can be u s e d to aid m e m o r y .

T h e s e s c h e m e s are e a c h useful in t h e m s e l v e s in a variety of situations. H o w e v e r ,
the r e a d e r w o u l d be m i s s i n g a major v a l u e of t h e s e s c h e m e s and an important
r e a s o n for p r e s e n t i n g t h e m , i f h e f a i l e d t o r e a l i z e t h a t t h e y i l l u s t r a t e j u s t a f e w o f t h e
m a n y p o s s i b l e m e m o r y s c h e m e s . T h e reader s h o u l d realize that h e h i m s e l f can
construct others.
T h e s c h e m e s w e h a v e p r e s e n t e d differ i n a n u m b e r o f w a y s . S o m e o f the
s c h e m e s e m p l o y m e m o r i z e d k e y s w h i l e others r e q u i r e the u s e r t o g e n e r a t e his o w n
keys. S o m e have single keys; others, multiple keys. S o m e s c h e m e s use auditory
imagery, others require visual imagery, and so on. If y o u have a special m e m o r y
n e e d , y o u m a y find that n o n e o f the s c h e m e s w e h a v e p r e s e n t e d i s q u i t e appropriate
t o it. S u p p o s e y o u w a n t a m e m o r y s c h e m e for u s e i n p l a y i n g b r i d g e . N o n e o f t h e
s c h e m e s we h a v e p r e s e n t e d is especially adapted to r e m e m b e r i n g the cards yet to
be p l a y e d in a bridge hand. W h a t w o u l d y o u do to put such a s c h e m e together? A
w a y t o b e g i n w o u l d b e t o try t o a n s w e r t w o q u e s t i o n s :
1. W h a t is special about the bridge situation?

2. What aspects of k n o w n m e m o r y schemes match the special aspect of the
bridge situation?
Using M e m o r y Effectively ?07
Table 9. S e v e n M n e m o n i c T e c h n i q u e s , Their A p p l i c a t i o n s , and the M e m o r y Principles

Involved in Their Use
Name Application Memory Principles Used
Acronyms and p e r m a n e n t storage of impor- c h u n k i n g , task

Acrostics t a n t lists a n d r u l e s , e . g . ,
s h o p p i n g l i s t s ; n o t u s e d for
temporary storage
Rhyme-Key a r b i t r a r y lists o f 1 0 i t e m s numerical indexing,

or less (ordered or unordered) elaboration
Multiple-Key m u l t i - d i g i t n u m b e r s , e.g., numerical indexing,

telephone numbers elaboration
Method of Loci a r b i t r a r y lists ( o r d e r e d o r spatial i n d e x i n g ,

unordered); length limited elaboration
b y l o c i list
Keyword Method vocabulary learning elaboration
Image-Name learning names of people, elaboration

w o r k s o f art
Chaining a r b i t r a r y lists ( o r d e r e d o r elaboration

unordered)
T o a n s w e r t h e first q u e s t i o n , w e m a y n o t e t h a t b r i d g e h a s f o u r p l a y e r s ; t h e y are
a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e c o m p a s s d i r e c t i o n s — n o r t h , s o u t h , e a s t , a n d w e s t ; t h e r e are t w o
h a n d s w h i c h d o n ' t n e e d t o b e r e m e m b e r e d — s e l f a n d d u m m y ; s o m e c a r d s are m o r e
i m p o r t a n t t h a n o t h e r s ; a n d t h e c a r d s are c h a r a c t e r i z e d b y t w o d i m e n s i o n s — s u i t a n d
value. T h e s e p r o p e r t i e s o f the b r i d g e task s u g g e s t s o m e features w e m i g h t w a n t t o
i n c l u d e i n a u s e f u l m e m o r y s c h e m e . T h e s p a t i a l c o d i n g o f t h e four p l a y e r s s u g g e s t s
t h e u s e o f a m o d i f i e d m e t h o d o f l o c i w i t h a l o c u s for e a c h o f t h e c o m p a s s d i r e c t i o n s .
T h e fact t h a t t h e c a r d s h a v e t w o d i m e n s i o n s s u g g e s t s a p a i r o f m e m o r i z e d
k e y s — o n e for s u i t a n d o n e for v a l u e . S i n c e t h e v a l u e s are t h e d i g i t s o n e t h r o u g h t e n
a n d Jack, Q u e e n , a n d K i n g , t h e r h y m e - k e y for d i g i t s m i g h t e a s i l y b e a u g m e n t e d t o
p r o v i d e t h e k e y for v a l u e . S i n c e t h e r h y m e - k e y i s f o c u s e d o n n o u n s , p e r h a p s t h e
suit k e y s h o u l d b e f o c u s e d o n a d j e c t i v e s t o a l l o w e a s y c o m b i n a t i o n s o f t h e k e y s i n
images. C a n a useful s c h e m e be constructed with these properties? We don't know.
We l e a v e that q u e s t i o n to the interested reader.
Exercises
D e s i g n a m e m o r y s c h e m e b a s e d o n a n a n a l y s i s o f t h e m e m o r y task o f o n e o f t h e
following:
1. chemical nomenclature
2. biological classifications
3. appointments
4. geological eras
5. resister color-coding
6. traffic l a w s
7. cultural history
USING EXTERNAL S O U R C E S
T h e r e is an enormous amount of useful information stored in such external

sources as textbooks, m a g a z i n e s , journals, n e w s p a p e r s , microfilm, and so on. T h e r e
i s s o m u c h u s e f u l i n f o r m a t i o n , i n fact, that w e o f t e n h a v e c o n s i d e r a b l e t r o u b l e
s i f t i n g t h r o u g h w h a t i s a v a i l a b l e t o f i n d w h a t w e w a n t . F o r t u n a t e l y , t h e r e are m a n y
g u i d e s o r indexes t o a v a i l a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n w h i c h c a n a i d u s i n o u r s e a r c h . K n o w i n g
the right i n d e x e s is an important prerequisite to work in m a n y fields. For example,
p h y s i c i a n s s h o u l d b e a b l e t o u s e t h e Cumulative Medical Index, a n d p s y c h o l o g i s t s
s h o u l d k n o w h o w t o l o c a t e p s y c h o l o g i c a l s t u d i e s t h r o u g h Psychological Abstracts.
Using Indexes
T h e q u e s t i o n s w e m a y n e e d t o a s k w h e n d o i n g r e s e a r c h i n t h e l i b r a r y are v e r y
d i v e r s e , and so are the sources of information n e e d e d to a n s w e r t h e m . T h e card
catalog is one index to these sources, but typically we n e e d m a n y more. A m o n g the
most g e n e r a l l y useful i n d e x e s * are:
1. World Almanac and Book of Facts

2. Statistical Abstract of the United States
3. Webster's Third New International Dictionary of the English Language
Unabridged
4. Encyclopedia Americana
5. Reader's Guide to Periodic Literature
6. New York Times Index
I f there are a n y o f t h e s e r e f e r e n c e s w h i c h y o u h a v e n e v e r u s e d , y o u should m a k e
a point of finding t h e m in the library and examining their contents.
O n e o f t h e m o s t v a l u a b l e r e s o u r c e s o f a l i b r a r y i s t h e staff o f r e s e a r c h l i b r a r i a n s .
R e s e a r c h librarians are familiar w i t h a large n u m b e r of i n d e x e s to i n f o r m a t i o n —
many unfamiliar to most p e o p l e — w h i c h allow them to answer a stupifying variety
of questions. B e l o w are s o m e samples of the kinds of questions research librarians
must handle and the reference sources (indexes) w h i c h m a y be used to answer
them.*
Q: What does A.C.R.L. mean?

A: L o o k in t h e Acronyms, Initialisms, b- Abbreviations Dictionary.
Q: I k n o w part of a p o e m ; h o w can I find out w h a t it is so that I can g e t a c o p y ?
A: Granger's Index to Poetry ( i n d e x e d by t i t l e and first l i n e )
Q: W h a t does the s y m b o l of the pyramid on the back of the dollar bill signify?
A : Collier's Encyclopedia, v . 1 1 . T h i s a p p e a r s u n d e r t h e s u b j e c t o f t h e " G r e a t
Seal of the U n i t e d States." A n y attempt to locate this information u n d e r the
h e a d i n g s of " d o l l a r " or " c u r r e n c y " or " m o n e y " w i l l be futile.
Q: H o w many steel workers b e l o n g to labor unions?
A: Directory of National Unions and Employee Associations
Q: W h e r e c a n I find the address of the c o m p a n y that m a k e s my slide-o-matic
windows?
A: Thomas Register, v. 7 ( b r a n d n a m e s a n d i n d e x )
Q: H o w m a n y houses in the Pittsburgh area have central air-conditioning?
A: U.S. Census of Housing, Census Tracts, Pittsburgh, PA.
Q: W h e r e can I b u y a good map of Dekalb County, Georgia?
A: 10,000 Map and Travel Publications Reference Guide
T h e i m p o r t a n t p o i n t t o n o t i c e i s t h a t t h e r e are m a n y o b s c u r e i n d e x e s . T h e i n d e x
most appropriate to solving your problem may be one y o u never dreamed existed,
a n d a q u i c k q u e s t i o n t o y o u r r e s e a r c h l i b r a r i a n m i g h t l e a d y o u t o it.
* T h e s e lists w e r e prepared by Ms. Dorothea T h o m p s o n , Reference Librarian, Hunt

Library, C a r n e g i e - M e l l o n University.
Exercises
Find appropriate indexes to help you answer the following questions:
1. Is t h e r e a poster of t h e C o n e h e a d s in print?
2. What do yaks eat?
3. On what day did Estes Kefauver die?
4. W h o is on the Board of Directors of Marvel C o m i c s ?
5. What is Spiro A g n e w doing n o w ?
N o t e s and Reminders
P e o p l e m a k e f r e q u e n t u s e o f notes a n d r e m i n d e r s i n e v e r y d a y m e m o r y tasks.
W e are f a m i l i a r w i t h t h e m i n t h e f o r m o f s h o p p i n g l i s t s , l e c t u r e n o t e s , a n d t h e
proverbial string around the finger. S o m e c o m m o n p l a c e r e m i n d e r s , h o w e v e r , m a y
escape our notice. F o r e x a m p l e , we m a y routinely use a finger to k e e p our place in
a t e l e p h o n e b o o k o r i n o u r r e a d i n g b u t n e v e r t h i n k o f i t a s a m e m o r y a i d . W e are
e v e n less l i k e l y to n o t i c e that e y e position can be u s e d as a m e m o r y aid. W h e n y o u
are f o l l o w i n g a p e r s o n i n a c r o w d , i t i s e s s e n t i a l t o try t o k e e p h i m i n s i g h t . I f y o u
l o s e s i g h t o f h i m for a m o m e n t , i t i s i m p o r t a n t t o l o o k for h i m c l o s e t o t h e p l a c e y o u
s a w h i m last.
T h e sorts o f n o t e s w e m a k e w h i l e d o i n g a r i t h m e t i c c o m p u t a t i o n s o r s o l v i n g
other p r o b l e m s are of great practical importance and illustrate h o w aids to m e m o r y
can also be aids to p r o b l e m solving. T h i n k h o w m u c h harder it is to multiply 2,749
b y 9,472 w h e n y o u h a v e t o d o all o f the w o r k i n y o u r h e a d than w h e n y o u c a n w r i t e
d o w n the partial results as y o u work, or h o w m u c h harder it m a y be to solve a
p h y s i c s o r g e o m e t r y p r o b l e m w i t h o u t first d r a w i n g a d i a g r a m . W e d i s c u s s e d
the function of diagrams and other forms of representations in m o r e detail in
C h a p t e r 1.
I n t h e n e x t c h a p t e r , w e w i l l d i s c u s s t e c h n i q u e s for t a k i n g l e c t u r e n o t e s w h i c h
c a n i m p r o v e l e a r n i n g e f f i c i e n c y for m a n y s t u d e n t s . H e r e w e w i l l d i s c u s s j u s t o n e
practical application of r e m i n d e r s w h i c h can be helpful to that pitiable s e g m e n t of
humanity k n o w n as " t h e a b s e n t - m i n d e d " — t h o s e p e o p l e w h o regularly arrive at
t h e i r o f f i c e s t o d i s c o v e r t h a t t h e i r o f f i c e k e y s a r e a t h o m e . T h e r e r e a l l y i s a differ-
ence in the d e g r e e of absent-mindedness among p e o p l e . In one study (Wilkins and
Baddeley, 1978) p e o p l e w e r e asked to p u n c h a time clock four times a day—8:30
A . M . , 1:00 P . M . , 5 : 3 0 P . M . , a n d 10:00 P . M . T h i s i s a t a s k s i m i l a r t o t h a t o f r e m e m -
bering to take y o u r m e d i c i n e at the right time or r e m e m b e r i n g to p u t more coins in
y o u r p a r k i n g m e t e r b e f o r e t h e m e t e r m a i d d i s c o v e r s h o w l o n g it's b e e n s i n c e y o u
last d i d s o . T h e s t u d y s h o w e d c o n s i s t e n t d i f f e r e n c e s a m o n g p e o p l e i n t h e d e g r e e
of lateness w i t h w h i c h they p u n c h e d the clock.
C a n a b s e n t - m i n d e d n e s s b e h e l p e d ? W e h o p e so. I n m a n y c a s e s , the trouble
seems to result from failure to p a y attention at certain critical t i m e s . A critical time
is a time just b e f o r e we take an action that is hard to r e v e r s e — l i k e t r a v e l i n g to w o r k
or to Tahiti; m a i l i n g a p a c k a g e ( D i d I r e m e m b e r to take off t h e p r i c e tag?); or
r e v e a l i n g i n f o r m a t i o n ( O o p s , I t h i n k t h a t was a s e c r e t ! ) . O n e w a y w e c a n h e l p
ourselves to notice the critical times is to use a landmark that is c o n n e c t e d with the
c r i t i c a l t i m e . F o r e x a m p l e , t h e f r o n t d o o r i s a n e x c e l l e n t l a n d m a r k t o u s e for r e m e m -
b e r i n g w h a t w e w a n t t o t a k e t o w o r k . I f w e w o u l d j u s t s t o p for a m o m e n t a t t h e front
door t o r e v i e w w h a t w e w i l l n e e d during the day, w e c o u l d a v o i d m a n y annoying
attacks o f a b s e n t - m i n d e d n e s s . T h e a c t o f s e a l i n g a p a c k a g e i s a g o o d l a n d m a r k for
r e m i n d i n g us to ask q u e s t i o n s l i k e , " D i d I i n c l u d e e v e r y t h i n g I s h o u l d h a v e ? " F o r
the absent-minded surgeon, s e w i n g the patient back up should trigger questions
s u c h a s , " D o I k n o w w h e r e all m y s c i s s o r s a r e ? O r m y w r i s t - w a t c h ? O r m y s h o e s ? "
7/0 The C o m p l e t e Problem Solver
A b s e n t - m i n d e d n e s s m a y s t r i k e e v e n w h e n w e d o s t o p a t t h e front d o o r a n d try
t o r e m e m b e r w h a t w e s h o u l d t a k e w i t h u s . It's h a r d t o r e m e m b e r everything w e
s h o u l d t a k e . I n s u c h s i t u a t i o n s , checklists c a n b e v e r y u s e f u l . A c h e c k l i s t i s s i m p l y
a list o f i t e m s w e m a y w a n t t o r e m e m b e r . A c h e c k l i s t for l e a v i n g t h e h o u s e m i g h t
look like this:
car k e y s
briefcase
office k e y s
cats ( H a v e t h e y b e e n f e d ? )
g a r b a g e (Is it o u t ? )
wallet
checkbook
socks
pants
I f s o m e d a y y o u f o r g e t a n e w i t e m , e . g . , y o u r p e n , y o u c a n s i m p l y a d d i t t o t h e list.
I f t h e c h e c k l i s t c a n b e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a l a n d m a r k , e . g . , t a p e d t o t h e front d o o r
w h e r e you will see it w h e n y o u leave, it is likely to be more effective.
SUMMARY
1. In solving p r o b l e m s , we m a k e use both of internal and of external m e m o r y .

2 . M n e m o n i c t e c h n i q u e s are p r o c e d u r e s w e u s e f o r p u t t i n g i n f o r m a t i o n r a p i d l y
into long-term m e m o r y .
a. These techniques depend on four memory principles:
• Indexing
• S w i t c h i n g t o a n e a s i e r m e m o r y task
• Chunking
• Elaboration
b. S e v e n m n e m o n i c t e c h n i q u e s , their applications, and the m e m o r y principles
t h e y d e p e n d on are s u m m a r i z e d in F i g u r e 4.
c . I f the a v a i l a b l e m e m o r y t e c h n i q u e s don't suit o u r n e e d s , w e s h o u l d c o n s i d e r
i n v e n t i n g n e w t e c h n i q u e s that d o .
3. To find information in external m e m o r y , e.g., b o o k s , libraries, we d e p e n d on
indexes.
a. R e f e r e n c e librarians can often provide us w i t h an i n d e x to the information we
need.
4 . N o t e s a n d r e m i n d e r s a r e e x t e r n a l m e m o r y a i d s w e c o n s t r u c t for o u r s e l v e s .
a. T h e y can be used to aid us in learning and in problem solving.
b. T h e y can be used to reduce absent-mindedness.
REFERENCES
Acronyms, Initialisms, and Abbreviations Dictionary, Sixth Edition. Detroit: Gale

Research Company, 1978.
Atkinson, R.C. " M n e m o t e c h n i c s in Second-language L e a r n i n g . " American Psy-

chology, 30, 8 2 1 - 8 2 8 , 1 9 7 5 .
Collier's Encyclopedia. New York: P.F. Collier, 1975.
Directory of National Unions and Employee Associations. U.S. Department of

Labor. B u r e a u o f L a b o r Statistics, Bulletin # 1 9 3 7 .
Encyclopedia Americana. New York: Americana Corporation, 1977.

SIX
LEARNING STRATEGIES
Nearly e v e r y o n e uses learning strategies, but some p e o p l e clearly make better

and more extensive use of t h e m than others. Differences in the w a y p e o p l e perform
i n l e a r n i n g s i t u a t i o n s , e i t h e r i n s c h o o l o r o n t h e j o b , m a y d e p e n d m o r e o n differ-
ences in their learning strategies than on differences in their ability. For example,
G o l d m a n and H u d s o n (1973) f o u n d that c o l l e g e students w i t h h i g h , m i d d l e , and
low grade-point averages differed in learning strategies b u t not in ability.
If learning strategies are so important, w h y do we hear so little about t h e m ?
T h e r e are a t l e a s t t w o a n s w e r s t o t h i s q u e s t i o n . O n e i s t h a t t h e l e a r n i n g s t r a t e g i e s
w e u s e m a y b e s o familiar a n d automatic that w e are a l m o s t u n a w a r e o f t h e m . F o r
e x a m p l e , w e a l l r e h e a r s e i n f o r m a t i o n w h e n w e w a n t t o r e m e m b e r it. I t s e e m s s u c h
a natural t h i n g to do that we h a r d l y think of it as a strategy. In C h a p t e r 4, t h o u g h ,
w e saw that s o m e first-grade c h i l d r e n h a d not y e t l e a r n e d t o r e h e a r s e . W h e n t h e y
were taught to rehearse, their m e m o r y performance improved. Rehearsal, then,
isn't i n n a t e . I t i s a s t r a t e g y w e h a v e t o l e a r n . M o s t o f u s l e a r n e d i t s o l o n g a g o ,
t h o u g h , t h a t w e d o n ' t r e m e m b e r l e a r n i n g it.
T h e s e c o n d r e a s o n w e d o n ' t h e a r m u c h a b o u t l e a r n i n g strategies i s that re-
search on l e a r n i n g strategies is q u i t e n e w . T h e r e is still a great d e a l to learn a b o u t
them. H o w e v e r , w e d o k n o w that instruction i n l e a r n i n g strategies c a n i m p r o v e
people's ability to learn.
I n this c h a p t e r , w e w i l l 1 . d i s c u s s s e v e n b a s i c l e a r n i n g s t r a t e g i e s , 2 . d e s c r i b e
some practical learning systems w h i c h m a k e u s e of t h e s e basic strategies, and
3 . d e s c r i b e s o m e s p e c i a l t e c h n i q u e s for l e a r n i n g d i f f i c u l t t o p i c s .
BASIC LEARNING STRATEGIES
T h e seven basic learning strategies we will discuss are:
1. T h e structuring strategy
2. T h e context strategy
3. Monitoring
4. Inferencing
5. Instantiation
6. Multiple coding
7. Attention m a n a g e m e n t
F u n d a m e n t a l research u n d e r l y i n g m a n y of these strategies has already b e e n

described in Chapter 4.
The Structuring Strategy
T h e s t r a t e g y o f i n f o r m a t i o n s t r u c t u r i n g r e q u i r e s y o u t o s e a r c h a c t i v e l y for
relations in the learning material. T h e relations m a y reveal categories, hierarchies,
n e t w o r k s , or other information structures that w i l l h e l p y o u to understand and
r e m e m b e r the material.
F o r e x a m p l e , s u p p o s e t h a t y o u a r e r e v i e w i n g for a t e s t o n C h a p t e r 5 b y l e a r n i n g
t h e f o l l o w i n g list:
1. Elaboration
2. Displacement
3. C u e d recall
4. Retroactive interference
5. 7 ± 2
6. T i p of the tongue
7. Recognition
8. Maintenance rehearsal
9. Proactive interference
10. Savings
11. Chunks
12. U n c u e d recall
T a b l e 1 s h o w s t h e c a t e g o r y s t r u c t u r e o f t h e list, a n d F i g u r e 1 s h o w s its h i e r -
archical structure.
T h e c h a p t e r has a t h e m e — t h e structure o f h u m a n m e m o r y — w i t h s o m e major
topics u n d e r the t h e m e . T h e topics in turn h a v e subtopics u n d e r t h e m , and these
subtopics m a y h a v e subtopics of their o w n . At the l o w e s t l e v e l , we typically find
e x a m p l e s a n d specific studies that illustrate points m a d e in h i g h e r l e v e l s .
I n g e n e r a l , i t i s a g o o d p r i n c i p l e t o list r e l a t e d t o p i c s u n d e r a s i n g l e h e a d i n g i n
the hierarchy. F o r e x a m p l e , the various topics u n d e r the h e a d i n g " r e t r i e v a l " are
grouped together in Chapter 4. Separating these topics w o u l d have t w o unfortunate
effects:
1. It w o u l d be m o r e difficult to m a k e comparisons a n d contrasts a m o n g similar

topics, e.g., the difference b e t w e e n r e c o g n i t i o n a n d recall m i g h t b e m i s s e d .
2. It w o u l d be h a r d e r to identify t h e h i e r a r c h i c a l structure of t h e text.
If y o u can't find the hierarchical structure of a lecture or text, either it is poorly
T a b l e 1. Items A r r a n g e d by C a t e g o r i e s
Short-term
Memory Encoding Storage Retrieval
7±2 Elaboration Retroactive T i p of the tongue

interference
U n c u e d recall
Chunks Proactive
interference C u e d recall
Displacement
Recognition
Maintenance
rehearsal Savings
c o n s t r u c t e d o r y o u h a v e n o t f u l l y u n d e r s t o o d it. I n e i t h e r c a s e , y o u a r e l i k e l y t o h a v e
difficulty in r e m e m b e r i n g t h e material.
U s i n g the structuring strategy shouldn't be v i e w e d simply as a matter of iden-
tifying structure. It c a n a n d s o m e t i m e s s h o u l d i n v o l v e restructuring. If a s e n t e n c e ,
7 76 The C o m p l e t e Problem Solver
Figure 3. C o m m u n i c a t i o n s N e t w o r k in an Imaginary C o m p a n y
paragraph, or larger text is hard to understand b e c a u s e of poor organization, y o u

m a y n e e d t o r e o r g a n i z e i t i n o r d e r t o u n d e r s t a n d it. R e a d e r s o f t e n d o this w h e n
r e a d i n g v e r y difficult texts (see F l o w e r , H a y e s , and Swarts, 1979).
E x a m i n i n g relations in the material to be learned can lead y o u to discover more
c o m p l e x structures than hierarchies. F o r e x a m p l e , if we look at authority relations
in a c o m p a n y , we w i l l find a hierarchy like that s h o w n in F i g u r e 2. H o w e v e r , if we
l o o k a t c o m m u n i c a t i o n s , w e a r e v e r y l i k e l y t o f i n d a c o m p l e x network l i k e t h a t
s h o w n in F i g u r e 3. T h e n e t w o r k differs from a h i e r a r c h y b e c a u s e it contains loops.
F o r e x a m p l e , t h e r e is a c o m m u n i c a t i o n l o o p from the p r e s i d e n t to A to F and b a c k
to the president. If there w e r e a similar authority loop, the c o m p a n y w o u l d be in b i g
trouble.
Rhetorical Structure
B a r t l e t t ( 1 9 7 8 ) m a d e a n i m p o r t a n t p r a c t i c a l a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e s t r u c t u r i n g strat-
e g y i n t e a c h i n g students h o w t o profit from their r e a d i n g , b y h a v i n g t h e m d e s c r i b e
t h e rhetorical structure o f t h e t e x t , o r h o w t h e a u t h o r o r g a n i z e d i t t o a c h i e v e its
major p u r p o s e . F o u r c o m m o n rhetorical structures are d e s c r i b e d b y M e y e r a n d
F r e e d l e (1978):
Attribution: Attribution is used to relate a description of a person, place, thing,

event, quality or abstraction of that thing w h i c h it describes.
Covariance: Covariance indicates a causal relationship serving as an antecedent
to another serving as the consequent. . . either the antecedent or the consequent can
be in the superordinate . . . position.
Response: Response has three subtypes. O n e . . . can be a question and its *
answer. T h e second has arguments that are a remark and a reply to it. T h e arguments
of the third are a problem and its solution.
Adversative: Adversative . . . relates what did not happen to what did happen,
or what does not exist to what does exist.
B a r t l e t t ( 1 9 7 8 ) h a s t a u g h t n i n t h - g r a d e c h i l d r e n h o w t o i d e n t i f y r h e t o r i c a l struc-
ture as a w a y to i m p r o v e their ability to learn from their reading. In a series of five
one-hour class sessions, the students learned to identify
1. the main idea of the passage, and

2. w h i c h of the four rhetorical structures the author u s e d to get the idea across.
Learning Strategies 777
T h i s q u i z illustrates the skills the students w e r e e x p e c t e d to acquire:
U n d e r l i n e the sentence containing the main idea. C i r c l e the top-level organiza-

tion u s e d b y the writer.
1. M a r t h a w a s w o r r i e d about h e r health. T h e doctor h a d told Martha that h e r
system was overtaxed. As a result she tried to rest m o r e and to eat at regular
times. She k n e w her lifestyle had to change.
a) d e s c r i p t i o n c) p r o b l e m - s o l u t i o n
b) before-as a result d) favored v i e w vs. opposite v i e w
2 . P o l l u t i o n i s a p r o b l e m for o u r r i v e r s . P o l l u t e d r i v e r s a r e e y e s o r e s . T h e y are
also health hazards. O n e solution is to stop the d u m p i n g of industrial waste.
a) description c) p r o b l e m - s o l u t i o n
3 . O u r class r e u n i o n w a s h e l d last year. W e saw m a n y old friends there. T h e

business of the m e e t i n g was kept to a m i n i m u m . We spent most of our time
socializing.
4. D e s p i t e the a r g u m e n t that s m o k i n g is harmful, m a n y c l a i m it is not so.

Certainly, s m o k i n g has b e e n related to l u n g cancer, h i g h b l o o d pressure,
a n d l o s s o f a p p e t i t e . B u t , for s o m e p e o p l e s m o k i n g m a y r e l i e v e t e n s i o n .
T h e students w e r e told that finding the organization (the rhetorical structure)

was the k e y to getting the author's m e s s a g e . To recall that m e s s a g e , t h e y w e r e told:
Our strategy involves two steps. In reading, we find the organization the writer
used. In recalling, we use the same organization. This is a strategy to improve
memory. T h e strategy is called using top-level organization.
Students w h o had had this training w e r e c o m p a r e d t o a g r o u p o f students w h o

had not. B o t h g r o u p s w e r e a s k e d to read passages such as that s h o w n b e l o w . After
reading, the subjects w e r e a s k e d t o w r i t e d o w n all t h e y c o u l d r e m e m b e r a b o u t t h e
passage. T h e experimental group r e m e m b e r e d nearly t w i c e as m u c h as the controls.
T h e Early Railroads*
T w o contrasting v i e w s on the usefulness of railroads existed for early Ameri-

cans. American m e n of business w e r e quick to recognize the promise of railroads,
and by 1830 several companies had b e e n formed to construct railroad lines in the
United States. Both the South Carolina Railroad and the Baltimore and O h i o Rail-
roads, America's earliest lines, c o m m e n c e d operations in 1830. T h e first American
locomotive engines w e r e built and d e l i v e r e d in the same year. Most of the early
railroads were short l i n e s — t h e longest in the United States was also the longest in
the world, 136 miles. Railway d e v e l o p m e n t p r o c e e d e d rapidly. In the first six years,
more than a thousand miles of track w e r e laid, and railroads b e g a n to run trains in
e l e v e n states.
In the 1850's, rail service was extended to the Mississippi River. E x c e p t for the
bulkiest of goods, railroads b e c a m e the most economical form of transportation
within the United States. Traveling by water b e t w e e n N e w York City and Detroit
in the 1850's took ten days; by rail, the same trip required only four days.
Railroads w e r e not popular with everybody. Farmers complained that the noise
frightened their cattle, and that sparks from the engines set their fields afire. Some
physicians feared that the human body could not endure travel at speeds so high as
* From Bartlett, 1978

30 miles an hour. Canal companies tried to k e e p railroads from building lines that
might compete with canals.
S i n c e k n o w i n g t h e s t r u c t u r e o f t h e t e x t w e are r e a d i n g c a n h e l p u s t o l e a r n , i t
m a k e s s e n s e t o l o o k a c t i v e l y for c l u e s t o s t r u c t u r e b e f o r e w e b e g i n r e a d i n g . I f w e
p r e v i e w the text q u i c k l y by r e a d i n g i n d e x e s , h e a d i n g s , and topic s e n t e n c e s , and
glancing at pictures, we can often anticipate the main topic, subtopics, and the
a u t h o r ' s g e n e r a l a p p r o a c h . T h e c l u e s w e u s e t o i d e n t i f y s t r u c t u r e b e f o r e w e r e a d are
c a l l e d advanced organizers ( A u s u b e l , 1 9 6 0 ) . A t t e n d i n g t o t h e m c a n m a k e l e a r n i n g
a good deal easier.
S i n c e c u e s t o s t r u c t u r e c a n h e l p u s w h e n w e are r e a d i n g , w e s h o u l d r e m e m b e r
t o p r o v i d e t h e m for o u r r e a d e r s w h e n w e are w r i t i n g . T h i s m e a n s first, t h a t o u r
w r i t i n g s h o u l d h a v e structure, and s e c o n d , that w e tell the r e a d e r w h a t i t is. T h e u s e
o f h e a d i n g s , c l e a r p a r a g r a p h s , a n d t o p i c s e n t e n c e s c a n e a s e y o u r r e a d e r s ' task
greatly. Also, there is n o t h i n g disgraceful about telling your r e a d e r straight out w h a t
y o u are u p t o , e . g . , " F i r s t , I w i l l d i s c u s s t h e a r g u m e n t s for c a p i t a l p u n i s h m e n t , t h e n
I w i l l try t o r e f u t e e a c h o f t h e m . " Y o u r r e a d e r m a y w e l l a p p r e c i a t e t h e h e l p .
The C o n t e x t Strategy
I n t h e s t r u c t u r e s t r a t e g y , w e s e a r c h for r e l a t i o n s w i t h i n t h e m a t e r i a l t o b e
l e a r n e d . I n t h e c o n t e x t s t r a t e g y , w e s e a r c h for r e l a t i o n s b e t w e e n t h e t h i n g s t o
be learned and the things we already know. R e c o g n i z i n g such relations can make
l e a r n i n g a great d e a l easier. In C h a p t e r 2, we found that c h e s s masters m a k e
extensive use of their chess k n o w l e d g e to h e l p them learn n e w chess positions.
W h e n w e r e a d a p u z z l e , w e h a v e a m u c h e a s i e r t i m e l e a r n i n g its d e t a i l s i f w e c a n
r e l a t e i t t o s i m i l a r p r o b l e m s w e h a v e s e e n b e f o r e . I f w e a l r e a d y k n o w h o w t o fix
l a w n m o w e r m o t o r s , w e w i l l h a v e a n e a s i e r t i m e l e a r n i n g h o w t o fix o u t b o a r d
motors.
Often, the things we w a n t to learn suggest a great deal of related k n o w l e d g e .
In such cases, we don't n e e d a context strategy b e c a u s e the context is obvious.
I n other c a s e s , w h e n t h e p r o b l e m s e e m s strange o r w h e n little related k n o w l -
e d g e s u g g e s t s itself, w e m a y w a n t t o u s e t h e c o n t e x t s t r a t e g y — t h a t is, w e m a y w a n t
t o s e a r c h for a n a l o g i e s o r o l d k n o w l e d g e t o h e l p u s l e a r n t h e n e w m a t e r i a l . T h i s
s i t u a t i o n m a y a r i s e w h e n w e start a n e w c o u r s e o r t a k e a n e w j o b . H e r e , s o m e t i m e
s p e n t s e a r c h i n g for r e l e v a n t k n o w l e d g e m a y p a y off h a n d s o m e l y .
A situation in w h i c h the context strategy is frequently useful is in finding the
meanings of unfamiliar words. We have a great deal of k n o w l e d g e about w o r d
m e a n i n g s in t h e form of w o r d roots. If it o c c u r s to us to u s e this k n o w l e d g e , we can
often guess the m e a n i n g of a n e w w o r d .
A l t h o u g h m a n y o f t h e r e l e v a n t w o r d roots are L a t i n o r G r e e k , o n e d o e s n ' t n e e d
to k n o w either of these languages in order to do the analyses. All of the necessary
information can be found in any good E n g l i s h dictionary.
In learning foreign language vocabulary, one can guess the meanings of words
l i k e a r b e (tree) a n d v i n ( w i n e ) b y n o t i c i n g t h e i r r e l a t i o n s t o t h e roots o f t h e E n g l i s h
w o r d s arbor and v i n e . T h e m e a n i n g s o f the E n g l i s h w o r d s , o f course, m a y b e
learned in the same way. For example, we can guess the m e a n i n g of the word
pericardial i f w e r e l a t e i t t o roots o f w o r d s l i k e p e r i m e t e r a n d c a r d i a c .
S p e l l i n g can also b e m a d e easier b y k n o w l e d g e o f w o r d roots. F o r e x a m p l e ,
s p e l l i n g w o r d s l i k e pneumonia, pneumatic, psychology, a n d psychomotor is e a s i e r
i f w e k n o w t h a t " p n e u m o " i s a root for l u n g a n d " p s y c h o " t h e r o o t for m i n d .
Monitoring
C e r t a i n l y o n e o f t h e m o s t p o w e r f u l o f t h e l e a r n i n g s t r a t e g i e s i s monitoring.
T h i s is the strategy in w h i c h learners test t h e m s e l v e s to find out w h a t t h e y have and
h a v e n o t l e a r n e d . T h e n t h e y u s e that i n f o r m a t i o n t o g u i d e s t u d y a n d p r o m o t e
learning.
O n e w a y t o m o n i t o r i s t o t e s t y o u r s e l f after y o u h a v e c o m p l e t e d a u n i t o f s t u d y .
F o r e x a m p l e , after r e a d i n g a n a r t i c l e , y o u c o u l d w r i t e d o w n all y o u r e m e m b e r a b o u t
t h e a r t i c l e a n d t h e n c h e c k y o u r r e s p o n s e a g a i n s t t h e o r i g i n a l . A n o t h e r w a y i s t o ask
y o u r s e l f q u e s t i o n s while y o u are r e a d i n g . A s k i n g a q u e s t i o n f o c u s e s y o u r a t t e n t i o n
o n a p a r t o f t h e t e x t a n d m a k e s i t m o r e l i k e l y t h a t y o u w i l l l e a r n t h a t part. B y a s k i n g
y o u r s e l f m a n y questions w h i l e y o u read, y o u s h o u l d b e able t o learn the text more
r a p i d l y than if y o u don't ask q u e s t i o n s . As we saw in C h a p t e r 4, it m a y be useful to
spend as m u c h as 80 percent of your study time in such self-testing activities.
W h a t sort o f q u e s t i o n s s h o u l d y o u a s k ? I f y o u r o b j e c t i v e i s j u s t t o g e t t h e facts,
the questions can be quite superficial: " W h y did R o o s e v e l t d e c i d e to run as a third
p a r t y c a n d i d a t e ? " or, " W h a t w e r e t h e n a m e s o f t h e first r a i l w a y c o m p a n i e s ? " I f y o u r
o b j e c t i v e i s t o e v a l u a t e t h e t e x t o r t o d e e p e n y o u r u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f it, t h e n y o u
s h o u l d e m p l o y t h e inference strategy, w h i c h r e q u i r e s y o u t o a s k m o r e p e n e t r a t i n g
questions.
Inferencing
This strategy is related to monitoring b e c a u s e it involves asking questions

about the material studied, and it is related to contextualizing b e c a u s e , typically, it
e x p l o r e s t h e r e l a t i o n o f o t h e r k n o w l e d g e t o t h e m a t e r i a l b e i n g l e a r n e d . Its o b j e c -
t i v e , h o w e v e r , i s t o g e n e r a t e i n f e r e n c e s a b o u t t h e m a t e r i a l i n o r d e r t o e v a l u a t e its
truth o r i m p o r t a n c e , t o w o r k o u t its i m p l i c a t i o n s , o r t o d e e p e n u n d e r s t a n d i n g .
Carrying out this strategy i n v o l v e s asking p r o b i n g questions, such as: " I s the author
b i a s e d ? " or, " C a n I t h i n k o f a c o u n t e r - e x a m p l e ? " or, " H o w w o u l d t h e a r g u m e n t
s e e m i f the roles w e r e r e v e r s e d ? " I n C h a p t e r 10, w e w i l l d e s c r i b e s o m e critical
thinking t e c h n i q u e s that can h e l p y o u to find " p e n e t r a t i n g q u e s t i o n s . "
Instantiation
Often, w h e n w e are h a v i n g trouble u n d e r s t a n d i n g s o m e t h i n g that s o m e o n e i s

telling us, w e w i l l say, " C a n y o u g i v e m e a n e x a m p l e o f t h a t ? " T h i s i s a n e x a m p l e
o f t h e instantiation strategy. W e s a w i n C h a p t e r 4 t h a t e x a m p l e s h e l p u s t o l e a r n .
In the instantiation strategy, we s e e k out e x a m p l e s that illustrate the materials we
are t r y i n g t o m a s t e r . W e c a n d o t h i s i n t w o w a y s :
1. We can p a y careful attention to the e x a m p l e s that others g i v e us in lectures, in

textbooks, or in a n s w e r to questions such as, " C a n y o u g i v e me an e x a m p l e of
that?" and
2 . W e c a n try t o c r e a t e e x a m p l e s for o u r s e l v e s . I t i s c o m m o n for p e o p l e t o d o this
w h e n t h e y are r e a d i n g a difficult text. In a r e c e n t study by F l o w e r , H a y e s , and
Swarts (1980), p e o p l e w e r e a s k e d to t h i n k a l o u d as t h e y r e a d a difficult federal
r e g u l a t i o n a n d t r i e d t o u n d e r s t a n d it. T h e p r o t o c o l s w e r e p e p p e r e d w i t h e x a m -
p l e s t h e r e a d e r s c r e a t e d for t h e m s e l v e s i n a n effort t o u n d e r s t a n d . H e r e i s a n
instance.
[The subject reads " i n e l i g i b l e c o n c e r n s , " and t h e n says] " S a y that if a f e l l o w
has a b a r a n d h e ' s s e l l i n g m o o n s h i n e w h i c h is n o t t a x e d . . . ."
Multiple C o d i n g
T h e e s s e n c e of the multiple-coding strategy is to represent the information we

want to r e m e m b e r in m o r e than o n e w a y . We can do this by paraphrasing, forming
images, w e a v i n g the material into a story, a n d by m a n y other w a y s . F o r e x a m p l e ,
suppose we w a n t e d to r e m e m b e r the information in the following sentence:
" B r a v e W o r m f i n i s h e d first; F i g N e w t o n , s e c o n d ; a n d K i n g K o n g , t h i r d . "

W e c o u l d paraphrase this as: " T h e w i n , p l a c e , and s h o w horses w e r e Brave W o r m ,

F i g N e w t o n , a n d K i n g K o n g . " W e c o u l d f o r m a n i m a g e o f a w o r m w i t h its c h e s t
s t u c k o u t s i t t i n g o n a f i g n e w t o n h e l d b y K i n g K o n g , o r w e c o u l d c r e a t e a story a b o u t
t h e first o f a l i n e o f b r a v e w o r m s w h i c h all b y i t s e l f a t e t w o f i g n e w t o n s a n d a t h i r d
of King Kong.
A n y of these methods of multiple coding should m a k e the information easier to
recall.
Attention M a n a g e m e n t
Far and a w a y the most important cause of failure to learn is failure to study. If
y o u haven't read an article, y o u m a y w e l l e x p e r i e n c e some difficulty in answering
q u e s t i o n s a b o u t it.
W e all h a v e l i m i t e d t i m e a n d w e m a y o f t e n h a v e d i f f i c u l t y i n f i n d i n g t h e t i m e
to do the r e a d i n g that is e x p e c t e d of us. S o m e p e o p l e , t h o u g h , s e e m to h a v e more
difficulty than others. Differences in performance on the j o b or in the classroom
may d e p e n d m o r e on differences in the amount of time invested than on differences
in ability.
Some p e o p l e have a very poor idea of w h e r e their time goes. Y o u may be one
of these. For example, do y o u k n o w h o w many hours a w e e k you spend reading to
learn? D o y o u k n o w h o w many hours you spend watching T V ? D o you know h o w
m u c h of your time is spent b e i n g polite to p e o p l e w h o are interrupting what y o u
really w a n t to do? If y o u did know, y o u might be sufficiently horrified to do
s o m e t h i n g a b o u t it. A p p e n d i x I d e s c r i b e s s o m e p r o c e d u r e s t h a t c a n h e l p w i t h t i m e
management.
Concentration
P e r h a p s y o u are p u t t i n g i n e n o u g h t i m e o n y o u r l e a r n i n g tasks b u t y o u are

w o r k i n g v e r y i n e f f i c i e n t l y . F o r e x a m p l e , y o u m a y d u t i f u l l y sit d o w n for a l o n g s t u d y
session and find that y o u h a v e terrible trouble concentrating. Often w h e n w e are
reading, w e discover that w e haven't b e e n p a y i n g attention. O u r e y e s w e r e scan-
n i n g l i n e after l i n e , b u t o u r m i n d w a s far a w a y . W e h a v e n o i d e a w h a t t h e last f e w
p a g e s w e r e about. T h i s can b e a v e r y a n n o y i n g p r o b l e m w h e n w e are trying t o m e e t
a d e a d l i n e , s u c h a s a t e s t i n t h e m o r n i n g o r a m e e t i n g after l u n c h . W e c a n ' t s p a r e
the time but we can't s e e m to concentrate either! A p p e n d i x I provides some sugges-
tions that can h e l p y o u solve concentration p r o b l e m s .
S T U D Y SYSTEMS
Study systems are organized approaches to learning, especially to learning

from r e a d i n g . T h e r e are m a n y different study s y s t e m s ; typically t h e y i n v o l v e s o m e
r u l e o r s e q u e n c e for a p p l y i n g s o m e o f t h e b a s i c l e a r n i n g s t r a t e g i e s , a n d m a n y
include p r o b l e m - s o l v i n g strategies as w e l l .
Survey Q 3 R
O n e of the most w i d e l y used study systems is the Survey Q 3 R system devised

b y R o b i n s o n (1946). T h e five steps i n this s y s t e m — s u r v e y , q u e s t i o n , read, recite,
and r e v i e w — a r e d e s c r i b e d i n R o b i n s o n ' s o w n s u m m a r y (Robinson, 1946):
SURVEY 1. Glance over the headings in the chapter to see the few big points
which will be developed. This survey should not take more than a
minute and w i l l show the three to six core ideas around w h i c h the rest
of the discussion will cluster. If the chapter has a final summary para-
graph this w i l l also list the ideas d e v e l o p e d in the chapter. This orien-
•> tation w i l l h e l p you organize the ideas as y o u read them later.
QUESTION 2. N o w b e g i n to work. Turn the first heading into a question. This will
arouse your curiosity and so increase comprehension. It will bring to
m i n d information already known, thus h e l p i n g you to understand that
section more quickly. A n d the question w i l l make important points
stand out w h i l e explanatory detail is recognized as such. T h i s turning
a heading into a question can be done on the instant of reading the
heading, but it demands a conscious effort on the part of the reader to
make this query for which he must read to find the answer.
READ 3. Read to answer that question, i.e., to the e n d of the first h e a d e d
section. T h i s is not a passive p l o w i n g along each line, b u t an active
search for the answer.
RECITE 4. Having read the first section, look away from the book and try briefly
to recite the answer to your question. U s e your own words and name
an example. If you can do this you know what is in the book; if you
can't, glance over the section again. An excellent w a y to do this recit-
ing from memory is to jot down cue phrases in outline form on a sheet
of paper. M a k e these notes very brief!
NOW REPEAT STEPS 2, 3 AND 4 ON EACH SUCCEEDING HEADED SECTION.

THAT IS, TURN THE NEXT HEADING INTO A QUESTION, READ TO ANSWER
THAT QUESTION, AND RECITE THE ANSWER HY JOTTING DOWN CUE
PHRASES IN YOUR OUTLINE. READ IN THIS WAY UNTIL THE ENTIRE LESSON
IS COMPLETED.
REVIEW 5. W h e n the lesson has thus b e e n read through, look over your notes to
get a bird's-eye view of the points and of their relationship and check
your memory as to the content by reciting on the major subpoints
under each heading. This checking of memory can be done by cover-
ing up the notes and trying to recall the main points. T h e n expose each
major point and try to recall the subpoints listed under it.
Survey Q R 3 m a k e s use of three of the s e v e n strategies. T h e survey step is an

example of the structuring strategy. T h e question step i n v o l v e s monitoring, b u t
Robinson intends it also to facilitate structuring and to p r o v i d e context by m a k i n g
contact with previous k n o w l e d g e . T h e reciting step i n v o l v e s both monitoring and
structuring, a n d the r e v i e w step is s i m p l y monitoring.
D a n s e r e a u ' s M U R D E R System
T h e a c r o n y m M U R D E R ( r e m e m b e r a c r o n y m s ? ) s t a n d s for t h e six parts o f

D a n s e r e a u e t al.'s ( 1 9 7 9 ) s t u d y s y s t e m : M o o d , U n d e r s t a n d , R e c a l l , D i g e s t , E x p a n d ,
and R e v i e w .
1 . Mood. T h e first s t e p o f M U R D E R i s s e t t i n g t h e m o o d for s t u d y . D a n s e r e a u s e e s

t w o major p r o b l e m s i n s e t t i n g t h e r i g h t m o o d . O n e i s c r e a t i n g a p o s i t i v e
a t t i t u d e — t h a t is, s o m e h o w o v e r c o m i n g t h e fear a n d l o a t h i n g o f study. T h e
second is c o p i n g w i t h distractions, e.g., y o u r r o o m m a t e practicing e l e p h a n t mat-
ing calls. B o t h o f t h e s e p r o b l e m s are attention m a n a g e m e n t p r o b l e m s , w h i c h are
treated in A p p e n d i x I u n d e r the h e a d i n g " C o n c e n t r a t i o n . "
2 . Understand. I n u s i n g t h e s y s t e m , y o u a r e e n c o u r a g e d w h e n first r e a d i n g a t e x t
t o m a r k a n y parts o f t h e t e x t y o u d o n ' t u n d e r s t a n d . D u r i n g t h e " D i g e s t " s t e p , y o u
a t t e n d t o t h e m a r k e d p a r t s w h i c h a r e still u n c l e a r t o y o u after f u r t h e r r e a d i n g . I n
learning to u s e the s y s t e m , y o u are trained to locate the p r o b l e m — a difficult
w o r d , s e n t e n c e , or p a r a g r a p h — a n d to b r e a k it into parts, e.g., y o u are trained to
b r e a k a d i f f i c u l t w o r d i n t o its r o o t s . I f t h e m e a n i n g i s still n o t c l e a r , y o u are
e n c o u r a g e d to look at the context of the difficulty to find related information, and
i f all e l s e fails, t o c o n s u l t o u t s i d e s o u r c e s , e . g . , d i c t i o n a r i e s , r e s e a r c h l i b r a r i a n s ,
etc. T h e " U n d e r s t a n d " a n d " D i g e s t " s t e p s , t h e n , i n v o l v e a p r o b l e m - s o l v i n g
s t r a t e g y — f r a c t i o n a t i o n — a n d a l e a r n i n g s t r a t e g y — t h e context strategy.
3 . Recall. A f t e r i n i t i a l r e a d i n g , y o u a r e i n s t r u c t e d t o r e c a l l t h e i n f o r m a t i o n y o u h a v e
b e e n r e a d i n g a b o u t a n d t o t r a n s f o r m i t u s i n g o n e (or p o s s i b l y b o t h ) o f t h e f o l l o w -
ing substrategies:
1 . Paraphrase-imagery. T h i s i s j u s t t h e m u l t i p l e - c o d i n g s t r a t e g y d e s c r i b e d
above.
2 . Networking. Y o u i d e n t i f y r e l a t i o n s i n t h e m a t e r i a l s t o b e l e a r n e d , s u c h a s
" p a r t of," " e x a m p l e of," a n d " l e a d s t o . " T h i s i s a n i n s t a n c e o f t h e s t r u c t u r i n g
strategy d e s c r i b e d a b o v e .
4 . Digest. T h i s s t e p h a s a l r e a d y b e e n d e s c r i b e d u n d e r " U n d e r s t a n d . "
5 . Expand. I n t h i s s t e p , y o u a s k a n d a n s w e r t h r e e k i n d s o f q u e s t i o n s .
1 . I f y o u c o u l d t a l k t o t h e a u t h o r , w h a t sorts o f q u e s t i o n s o r c r i t i c i s m s w o u l d y o u
raise?
2. H o w can the material be applied?
3. H o w could y o u m a k e the material more understandable and interesting to
others?
Clearly, the learning strategy i n v o l v e d here is inferencing.
6 . Review. H e r e , y o u r e v i e w y o u r e r r o r s w i t h t h e i n t e n t o f f i n d i n g t h e i r c a u s e s a n d
m a k i n g appropriate c h a n g e s in your study habits. T h e relevant strategy here is
monitoring.
T h e M U R D E R s y s t e m , t h e n , m a k e s u s e o f all o f t h e l e a r n i n g s t r a t e g i e s e x c e p t
instantiation.
D a n s e r e a u tested the M U R D E R system by comparing 38 college students w h o
took a 1 2 - w e e k learning strategies class with 28 students w h o d i d not take the class.
Learning performance was measured three times in each group: once before the
c l a s s b e g a n , o n c e h a l f w a y t h r o u g h , a n d o n c e after t h e c o u r s e w a s c o m p l e t e d . T h e
m e a s u r e m e n t i n v o l v e d r e a d i n g a 3,000 w o r d p a s s a g e a n d t h e n t a k i n g a t e s t o n its
contents o n e w e e k later. After training, the e x p e r i m e n t a l g r o u p p e r f o r m e d b e t w e e n
14 and 18 p e r c e n t better than the untrained control group.
D a n s e r e a u also t e s t e d the n e t w o r k i n g strategy s e p a r a t e l y from the w h o l e
s y s t e m . H e f o u n d t h a t after six h o u r s o f t r a i n i n g , t h e e x p e r i m e n t a l g r o u p r e m e m -
b e r e d 34 p e r c e n t m o r e m a i n ideas than the untrained control group, b u t about the
same n u m b e r of details.
B. F. Jones and her colleagues (1979) have d e v e l o p e d a study system to im-
p r o v e t h e r e a d i n g s k i l l s o f d i s a d v a n t a g e d c h i l d r e n i n t h e fifth t h r o u g h e i g h t h g r a d e s
i n C h i c a g o p u b l i c s c h o o l s . S t u d e n t s are t a u g h t a c a r e f u l l y s e q u e n c e d s e t o f l e a r n i n g
s t r a t e g i e s in a mastery learning format. M a s t e r y l e a r n i n g m e a n s t h a t e a c h s t u d e n t
m u s t h a v e m a s t e r e d all o f t h e s t r a t e g i e s t a u g h t s o far, a s i n d i c a t e d b y p a s s i n g a t e s t ,
before b e i n g a l l o w e d to study the next strategy. T h e strategies i n c l u d e m u l t i p l e
c o d i n g , e.g., v i s u a l i z i n g w o r d s in a n a l o g i e s ; structuring, e.g., differentiating m a i n
points a n d details; c o n t e x t u a l i z i n g , e.g., finding the m e a n i n g of an unfamiliar w o r d
from other information in the text; and i n f e r e n c i n g , e.g., differentiating o p i n i o n
from fact in w h a t is read.
Jones e t al. find that their l e a r n i n g strategies y i e l d m u c h greater i m p r o v e m e n t
in the student's r e a d i n g c o m p r e h e n s i o n scores than d o e s m o r e traditional instruc-
tion.
SPECIAL T E C H N I Q U E S FOR H A R D CASES
In this section, we w i l l s h o w h o w the learning strategies can be a p p l i e d in

l e a r n i n g topics w h i c h m a n y p e o p l e find difficult, e.g., zoological categories, p h y s i c s
e q u a t i o n s , and cultural history. O f c o u r s e , there are s o m a n y different topics that w e
can't h o p e to c o v e r t h e m all. O u r intention h e r e is s i m p l y to p r o v i d e a f e w illustra-
tions o f h o w t h e l e a r n i n g strategies can b e a p p l i e d . W e h o p e that t h e s e e x a m p l e s

w i l l h e l p y o u t o a p p l y the l e a r n i n g strategies w h e n y o u e n c o u n t e r difficult learning
situations.
T h e first t o p i c w i l l i l l u s t r a t e t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e s t r u c t u r i n g a n d c o n t e x t
strategies.
Learning C a t e g o r i e s in Z o o l o g y
S u p p o s e t h a t y o u w a n t e d (or n e e d e d ) t o l e a r n m a t e r i a l l i k e t h e z o o l o g i c a l
phyla, classes, and orders with associated properties and examples, as s h o w n in
T a b l e 2.
A t first s i g h t , t h e s t r a n g e a n d c o m p l e x n a m e s o f t h e c a t e g o r i e s m a y s e e m a
t e r r i b l e b a r r i e r t o l e a r n i n g . I n fact, i f w e u s e t h e m i n t h e r i g h t w a y , t h e n a m e s
b e c o m e a k e y t o a g r e a t d e a l o f k n o w l e d g e w e a l r e a d y h a v e s t o r e d — k n o w l e d g e that
c a n b e c o n n e c t e d t o t h e n e w m a t e r i a l t o h e l p u s i n l e a r n i n g it.
O n t h e r i g h t - h a n d s i d e o f T a b l e 2 a r e t h e roots o f t h e c a t e g o r y n a m e s . S o m e o f
t h e m , l i k e " c n i d a " a n d " e c h i n o " a r e u n f a m i l i a r t o m o s t o f u s , b u t m a n y a r e parts o f
w o r d s w e a r e a l r e a d y f a m i l i a r w i t h , e . g . , p r o t o t y p e , pyrocanthus (fire t h o r n ) ,
arthritis, d e n t i s t , e t c . T h e s e roots s h o u l d b e e a s y t o l e a r n b e c a u s e w e c a n c o n n e c t
them to k n o w l e d g e we already have.
W h e n w e k n o w the m e a n i n g s o f the roots, the c a t e g o r y n a m e g i v e s u s a t h u m b -
nail d e s c r i p t i o n of the animals in the category. S i n c e m o l l u s m e a n s "soft," M o l l u s c a
s e e m s a v e r y r e a s o n a b l e n a m e for c l a m s a n d o y s t e r s . W e c a n i m a g i n e w h a t t h e
A c a n t h o c e p h a l i (thorny heads) w i l l look like, and w e can g u e s s that lobsters m i g h t
well be Arthropoda.
O n e o f t h e m o s t i m p o r t a n t facts a b o u t c a t e g o r i e s i n z o o l o g y i s t h a t t h e y are
hierarchically organized, as s h o w n in Figure 4. We could learn the categories
w i t h o u t p a y i n g attention to the hierarchy, b u t learning w o u l d be m o r e difficult and
m u c h less m e a n i n g f u l . F o r e x a m p l e , a p e r s o n w h o d o e s n ' t u n d e r s t a n d the hierar-
c h i c a l o r g a n i z a t i o n c a n ' t f i g u r e o u t t h a t b i r d s are m o r e c l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o r e p t i l e s
than to s p o n g e s .
T h e structure s h o w n in T a b l e 2 reflects several important principles of zoology.
For e x a m p l e , the p h y l a are o r g a n i z e d by a principle of c o m p l e x i t y . T h e simplest of
t h e p h y l a s , t h e P r o t o z o a , c o n s i s t o f s i n g l e c e l l s . T h e n e x t l e v e l o f c o m p l e x i t y in-
volves multicellular phyla like Porifera and Cnidaria w h i c h have tissues but
no organs. M o r e c o m p l e x p h y l a h a v e organ systems of v a r y i n g d e g r e e s of elabo-
rateness.
A s e c o n d o r g a n i z i n g p r i n c i p l e for t h e p h y l a i s t h e p r i n c i p l e o f e n c e p h a l i z a t i o n .
By encephalization, we m e a n an increasing importance of the head. As we progress
from u n o r g a n i z e d b l o b s t o p e o p l e , w e f i n d a n i n c r e a s i n g p r e f e r e n c e for h e a d - f i r s t
motion, with an increasing concentration of sensory systems and neural centers at
the h e a d e n d . S i m p l e p h y l a like Protozoa and C n i d a r i a s h o w little encephalization.
W e f i n d i n c r e a s i n g e n c e p h a l i z a t i o n w i t h i n c r e a s i n g c o m p l e x i t y a s w e m o v e from
Platyhelminthes to A n n e l i d a to Chordata.
O t h e r o r g a n i z i n g p r i n c i p l e s for t h e c a t e g o r i e s i n T a b l e 2 i n v o l v e c h a n g e s i n
s p e c i f i c o r g a n s y s t e m s . C h a n g e s i n t h e d i g e s t i v e tract p r o v i d e o n e o f t h e m o s t
f u n d a m e n t a l o f t h e o r g a n i z i n g s c h e m e s for t h e p h y l a . T h e t w o l e a s t c o m p l e x p h y l a ,
Protozoa and Porifera, h a v e no d i g e s t i v e tract at all. T h e m o s t c o m p l e x of the p h y l a ,
the Molluscs, A n n e l i d s , Arthropods, E c h i n o d e r m s , and Chordates, have w e l l -
d e v e l o p e d d i g e s t i v e s y s t e m s w i t h a true c o e l u m . A true c o e l u m is a space separat-
i n g t h e d i g e s t i v e tract f r o m t h e b o d y w a l l w h i c h i s l i n e d w i t h a s p e c i a l t i s s u e c a l l e d
p e r i t o n e u m . C n i d a r i a a n d P l a t y h e l m i n t h e s , w h i c h are a s t e p a b o v e t h e s p o n g e s i n
c o m p l e x i t y , h a v e a d i g e s t i v e tract b u t n o c o e l u m . T h e A c a n t h o c e p h a l a , w h i c h l i e
Table 2. Zoological Categories
Name Example Meaning
Protozoa amoeba proto (primitive, original) + z o a (animal)

Porifera sponge p o r o s ( p a s s a g e , p o r e ) + f e r r e (to b e a r )
Cnidaria jellyfish cnida (nettle, stinging cell)
s Platyhelminthes
Acanthocephala
flatworms p l a t y (flat) + h e l m i n t h e s ( w o r m )
acantho (thorny) + c e p h a l u s (head)
Mollusca clam m o l l u s (soft)
i-H
Annelida earth w o r m a n n u l u s (ring)
Arthropoda spiders, crabs arthro (jointed) + p o d a (legs)
Echinodermata starfish e c h i n o ( s p i n y ) + d e r m u s (skin)
Chordata (Vertebrates) cat, p e o p l e c h o r d a (string, c o r d )
Agnatha lampreys a (no) + g n a t h o s (jaw)

Placodermi (extinct) p l a c o ( p l a t e s ) + d e r m u s (skin)
Osteichthyes salmon o s t i o ( b o n y ) + i c h t h y e s (fish)
Chondrichthye s sharks, rays c h o n d r o ( c a r t i l a g e ) + i c h t h y e s (fish)
u Amphibia
Reptilia
frogs
reptiles
a m p h i (on b o t h s i d e s , a r o u n d )
r e p t i l i a (from r e p e r e ; t o c r a w l )
Aves birds avis (bird)
Mammalia mammals m a m m a (breast)
Monotremata duck-billed platypus m o n o (one) + trema (hole)

Marsupialia opossum, kangaroo m a r s u p i u m (little b a g )
S-l
Insectivora shrew i n s e c t u m + v o r a r e (to d e v o u r )
1)
Dermoptera flying lemurs d e r m u s (skin) + p t e r o n ( w i n g )
o Chiroptera
Edentata
bats
anteaters, sloths
c h i r u s (hard) + p t e r o n ( w i n g )
e (without) + d e n t u m (teeth)
Proboscoidia elephants proboscis
3
era
ro
b e t w e e n t h e P l a t y h e l m i n t h e s a n d t h e M o l l u s c s , h a v e a p s e u d o c o e l u m — t h a t is, a
space w h i c h is like a c o e l u m but w h i c h is not lined with peritoneum.
I n t h e s a m e w a y t h a t t h e d i g e s t i v e s y s t e m p r o v i d e s g r o u p i n g a n d o r d e r i n g for
t h e p h y l a , t h e c i r c u l a t o r y s y s t e m p r o v i d e s g r o u p i n g s a n d o r d e r i n g for t h e c l a s s e s o f
vertebrates. Fish have t w o - c h a m b e r e d hearts, amphibians h a v e three-chambered
hearts, and reptiles, birds, and m a m m a l s have four-chambered hearts.
In general, the various organizing principles such as encephalization and com-
plexity g r o u p order the categories in w a y s that are consistent w i t h e a c h other and
with an overall principle of evolutionary development.
In zoology, then, understanding the structure of the categories is closely
r e l a t e d t o u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h e s c i e n c e itself.
T o s e e t h a t t h e l e a r n i n g s t r a t e g i e s r e a l l y h e l p t o l e a r n z o o l o g y , c o n s i d e r this
e x a m p l e . S u p p o s e y o u w e r e t o hear that the imaginary p h y l u m " P l a t y p o d a " w a s
considered the immediate evolutionary descendant of the Annelida. You w o u l d
k n o w i m m e d i a t e l y t h a t t h e m e m b e r s o f t h e p h y l u m are c h a r a c t e r i z e d b y flat f e e t ;
that t h e y a r e m o d e r a t e l y c o m p l e x , w i t h w e l l - d e v e l o p e d o r g a n s y s t e m s , a d e f i n i t e
head-to-tail orientation, and a d i g e s t i v e system w i t h a true c o e l u m . T h a t is really
q u i t e a l o t of i n f o r m a t i o n to g e t f r o m a n a m e a n d a p o s i t i o n in an o r d e r i n g .
T h e s e l e a r n i n g s t r a t e g i e s are v e r y i m p o r t a n t i n b i o l o g i c a l s c i e n c e s , m e d i c i n e ,
geology, chemistry, and m a n y other areas of k n o w l e d g e .
LEARNING MATHEMATICAL FORMULAS
S u p p o s e that y o u h a v e an a s s i g n m e n t that r e q u i r e s y o u to learn formulas of the

sort t y p i c a l l y f o u n d i n p h y s i c s o r e n g i n e e r i n g t e x t s . T h e r e are a n u m b e r o f p r o c e -
d u r e s y o u c a n u s e t o m a k e t h i s task e a s i e r a n d m o r e m e a n i n g f u l . W e w i l l d e s c r i b e
one w h i c h m a k e s use of the multiple c o d i n g and context strategies.
Physical Interpretation of Equations
O n e o f t h e m o s t p o w e r f u l p r o c e d u r e s for l e a r n i n g a n d u n d e r s t a n d i n g e q u a t i o n s
is the process of physical interpretation. By physical interpretation we m e a n the
process in w h i c h p e o p l e m a k e use of k n o w l e d g e of a p h y s i c a l situation, perhaps in
the form of s k e t c h e s or visual i m a g e s , to h e l p t h e m u n d e r s t a n d or learn an equation.
O n e w a y we can use physical interpretation is to h e l p us r e m e m b e r whether a
quantity should be p l a c e d in the numerator or denominator of an equation.
B e f o r e d e s c r i b i n g h o w this w o r k s , l e t m e m e n t i o n a p r o p e r t y o f e q u a t i o n s
w h i c h the math haters in the a u d i e n c e m a y either h a v e forgotten or n e v e r learned
i n t h e first p l a c e . C o n s i d e r t h i s a r b i t r a r y e q u a t i o n :
(A • B) + C
(D + E)F
H o w does X change with A, B, C, D, E, and F?
T h e fact I w a n t y o u t o n o t i c e i s t h a t
1. X g e t s bigger as A, B, a n d C g e t b i g g e r because those quantities are in t h e

numerator, and
2. X g e t s smaller as D, E, a n d F g e t b i g g e r because those three quantities are
in the denominator.
N o w , s u p p o s e t h a t y o u w a n t e d t o r e m e m b e r t h e e q u a t i o n for t h e f o r c e o f g r a v i t y
b e t w e e n t w o objects. Y o u k n o w that the force, F, is e q u a l to s o m e c o m b i n a t i o n of
G, and constant, M and M , the masses of the objects, and r, the distance b e t w e e n
1 2
them. Y o u think it might be

Physical interpretation might involve imagining ourselves floating in space holding

t w o l a r g e g l o b e s apart. I f e i t h e r o f t h e g l o b e s w e r e v e r y h e a v y , w e w o u l d e x p e c t t h a t
it w o u l d be harder to h o l d t h e m apart than if both w e r e light. S i n c e force increases
as either of the masses (M's) increases, the masses must be in the numerator. (Why?)
A s w e p u s h the g l o b e s farther apart, t h e force o f attraction b e t w e e n t h e m w i l l
d e c r e a s e as the force of attraction b e t w e e n t w o m a g n e t s d e c r e a s e s as we pull t h e m
apart. S i n c e f o r c e d e c r e a s e s a s d i s t a n c e , r , i n c r e a s e s , r m u s t b e i n t h e d e n o m i n a t o r .
< y )
w h ?
GMM2
O f t h e t h r e e e q u a t i o n s a b o v e , o n l y (b), F = , satisfies t h e s e relations. It
is, i n fact, t h e c o r r e c t e q u a t i o n . r
A s l i g h t l y m o r e c o m p l e x e x a m p l e i n v o l v e s t h e e q u a t i o n for t h e c a p a c i t y o f a
condenser:
4TTD
A c o n d e n s e r i s a d e v i c e for s t o r i n g a n e l e c t r i c a l c h a r g e . I t c o n s i s t s o f t w o m e t a l
plates p l a c e d close to e a c h other b u t not touching, as s h o w n in F i g u r e 5. A con-
d e n s e r w o r k s , that is, stores electricity, m o r e easily than say, the a v e r a g e d o o r k n o b ,
for t w o r e a s o n s :
Figure 5. A Diagram of a C o n d e n s e r
1. Charges of the same sign repel each other and they repel more strongly the
closer t h e y are. T h e r e f o r e , it is m o r e difficult to p u t a c h a r g e onto a plate w i t h
a s m a l l a r e a , w h e r e t h e e l e c t r o n s are c r o w d e d , t h a n o n t o a p l a t e w i t h a l a r g e a r e a
w h e r e the electrons c a n spread out.
2. C h a r g e s o f o p p o s i t e s i g n attract e a c h o t h e r , a n d t h e y attract m o r e s t r o n g l y t h e
c l o s e r t h e y a r e . T h e fact t h a t t h e o p p o s i t e c h a r g e s a r e c l o s e t o g e t h e r i n a c o n -
d e n s e r m e a n s that there is an attractive force h o l d i n g the charge on the con-
d e n s e r w h i c h in part counteracts the forces by w h i c h the charges of the same
kind on e a c h plate r e p e l e a c h other. N o w , back to the equation:
C - k A
4TTD
T h e capacity of the c o n d e n s e r , C, is a measure of h o w easy it is to place a given

charge on the c o n d e n s e r . A is the area of the plates and D is the distance b e t w e e n
them, (k is a constant w h i c h varies with the material b e t w e e n the places and won't
concern us here.) It is clear from w h a t we h a v e said a b o v e that capacity must
increase as the area of the plates increases and as the distance b e t w e e n the plates
decreases. A therefore must be in the numerator of the equation and D in the
denominator.
Physical interpretation can also h e l p us learn the values of constants in equa-
t i o n s . C o n s i d e r t h e e q u a t i o n for t h e v o l u m e o f a s p h e r e :
V = - 7T r 3
3
I s t h e c o n s t a n t 4/3w r e a s o n a b l e ? T o e s t i m a t e w h a t t h e c o n s t a n t o u g h t t o b e , i m a g i n e
that the s p h e r e is i n s i d e a c u b e just 2r on a side, as s h o w n in F i g u r e 6. T h e s p h e r e
Figure 6. S p h e r e Inside a C u b e From T w o Angles

j u s t t o u c h e s t h e c u b e a t a f e w p o i n t s . T h e r e i s a fair a m o u n t o f e m p t y s p a c e b e t w e e n
the s p h e r e a n d t h e c u b e . W e m i g h t estimate that h a l f o f the s p a c e i n s i d e the c u b e
i s o c c u p i e d b y t h e s p h e r e . N o w , s i n c e t h e s i d e o f t h e c u b e i s 2r, its v o l u m e i s
(2r) = 8r
3 3
T h e r e f o r e , we estimate that the v o l u m e of the s p h e r e is r o u g h l y h a l f of that, or
4r 3
N o w s i n c e T T i s a p p r o x i m a t e l y 3 , 4/3-n- i s a p p r o x i m a t e l y 4 , w h i c h i s a b o u t r i g h t .
I n t h e s a m e w a y , c o n s i d e r i n g t h e e q u a t i o n for t h e s u r f a c e a r e a o f t h e s p h e r e ,
A = 47rr 2
w e c a n a s k w h e t h e r o r n o t t h e c o n s t a n t 4TT i s r e a s o n a b l e . T o e s t i m a t e t h e c o r r e c t
v a l u e , i m a g i n e a s q u a r e 2 r o n a s i d e i n t o w h i c h t h e s p h e r e w i l l j u s t fit, a s s h o w n i n
F i g u r e 7. T h i s square has an area of
(2r) = 4r
2 2
N o w i m a g i n e trying to c o v e r the sphere w i t h the square. By noting that o n e square

w o n ' t c o v e r e v e n a half of the sphere, we m i g h t estimate that it w i l l take about three
squares t o c o v e r t h e s p h e r e . T h e total area, t h e n , w o u l d b e a b o u t
3 times 4r 2
T h u s , 4 7 r r is a b o u t right.
2
T h e m e t h o d o f p h y s i c a l i n t e r p r e t a t i o n w o r k s w e l l for e s t i m a t i n g m a n y c o n s t a n t s .
Try to apply it in the following exercises.
Exercises
1. U s e p h y s i c a l interpretation to s h o w that the constants in the f o l l o w i n g e q u a t i o n s

are a b o u t right.
C = 27rr
w h e r e C is t h e c i r c u m f e r e n c e of a c i r c l e a n d r is its r a d i u s .
V = l/3-7rr h 2
w h e r e V i s t h e v o l u m e o f a r i g h t c i r c u l a r c o n e , r i s t h e r a d i u s o f its b a s e , a n d
h is its h e i g h t .
Learning Cultural History
In fields like z o o l o g y and physics w h i c h h a v e w e l l - d e v e l o p e d theories, it is

relatively easy to find strong organizing principles to aid learning and c o m p r e h e n -
s i o n . I n t h e h u m a n i t i e s , h o w e v e r , w h e r e t h e o r i e s a r e n o t a s w e l l d e v e l o p e d , orga-
n i z i n g principles m a y be harder to find. C o n s i d e r the task of l e a r n i n g information
a b o u t c u l t u r a l h i s t o r y , t h a t i s , i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t t h e r e l a t i o n s o f art, s c i e n c e , m u s i c ,
politics, etc., o v e r a p e r i o d o f t i m e . W e c a n g e t h e l p i n o r g a n i z i n g s u c h material b y
relating it to artistic m o v e m e n t s s u c h as c l a s s i c i s m or r o m a n t i c i s m , to r e l i g i o u s
movements, such as the Reformation or the counter-Reformation, or to political
events, such as the succession of the British monarchs. Often p e o p l e s e e m to apply
such organizing principles v e r y narrowly. T h u s , a person m a y k n o w that baroque
music p r e c e d e d romantic m u s i c and that L o u i s X I V p r e c e d e d N a p o l e o n , b u t h e m a y
h a v e n o i d e a w h a t sort o f m u s i c w a s b e i n g c o m p o s e d d u r i n g e i t h e r m a n ' s r e i g n .
In general, c o l l e g e students s e e m to h a v e difficulty organizing p e o p l e and
events in t i m e . T h e test s h o w n in T a b l e 3 w a s a d m i n i s t e r e d to the freshman class
HISTORY TEST: INSTRUCTIONS
T h i s is a test of y o u r ability to identify
the times of historically important
people.
T h e test sheet contains a time line
e x t e n d i n g from 1 1 0 0 A D t o 1900 A D
and a list of 51 n a m e s . T r y to identify
the t i m e of e a c h of the p e o p l e on the list
by writing the n u m b e r of the person
(1 for B a c h , 2 for D a n t e , e t c . ) at a p o i n t
on the time line w h i c h corresponds
to the time at w h i c h the person was
T a b l e 3. History Test Results
Absolute
Percentage average
of students error in
recognizing years
1100
1. Bach 99% 117
2. Dante 94 195
3. Louis XIV 93 79
4. Giotto 26 109
5. Hieronymus Bosch 20 140
6. Marco Polo 99 120
7. Shakespeare 100 73
8. Napoleon 99 67
9. Elizabeth I 93 95
10. Gutenberg 64 139
11. Disraeli 58 60
12. Cromwell 86 89
13. B e n Franklin 100 13
14. Van Gogh 98 150
15. Lavoisier 40 102
16. Mozart 98 140
17. Machiavelli 77 112
1200 1800 -
18. Rembrandt 98 105
19. Darwin 99 64
20. Jane A u s t e n 60 43
21. Wagner 70 101
22. N e w t o n 99 133
23. Scarlatti 24 148
24. C h a u c e r 90 126
an adult. As an e x a m p l e , n u m b e r 5 1 ,
G e o r g e W a s h i n g t o n , has already b e e n
placed on the time line. A n y time
w h i c h falls b e t w e e n a p e r s o n ' s t w e n -
tieth birthday and his death w i l l be
counted as correct.
If y o u do not r e c o g n i z e a n a m e , cross
out that n a m e . If y o u do r e c o g n i z e a
name, put it some place on the time
line, e v e n if you have to guess.
25. Tintoretto 20 155
26. Henry VIII 100 91
27. Copernicus 91 163
28. Delacroix 38 125
29. Galileo 96 175
30. Milton 71 126
31. Martin Luther 98 120
32. Gainsborough 41 104
33. Debussy 65 141
34. Vermeer 37 94
1 3 0 0 35. Fielding 36 95
1700 --
36. Dostoievski 73 66
37. Van Eyck 45 210
38. L e o n a r d o d a V i n c i 98 90
39. B e e t h o v e n 99 132
40. Hogarth 25 128
41. Richard the Lionhearted 94 176
42. Tennyson 87 127
43. El Greco 70 122
44. Marie Antoinette 96 115
45. Goya 60 126
46. Descartes 83 143
47. Byron 77 93
48. Calvin 86 119
49. Jonathan Swift 82 68
50. Thomas Aquinas 67 207
51. George Washington
1400 1500 1600

entering Carnegie-Mellon's C o l l e g e of Humanities and Social Sciences in Sep-

tember, 1973.
H o w d i d the humanities freshmen d o ? First, e v e r y o n e r e c o g n i z e d the n a m e of
Benjamin Franklin. Furthermore, nearly three-quarters w e r e able to place him
accurately on the t i m e scale. O t h e r historic.persons w h o w e r e universally rec-
ognized were Shakespeare, Henry VIII, Bach, Napoleon, N e w t o n , Darwin, and
B e e t h o v e n . H o w e v e r , the a v e r a g e error in p l a c i n g p e o p l e on the t i m e scale w a s in
e x c e s s o f a c e n t u r y — a n d t h i s w a s j u s t for p e o p l e r e c o g n i z e d . M o r e t h a n a q u a r t e r
of the students did not recognize the names of Byron, Milton, W a g n e r , El Greco,
and D e b u s s y , and m o r e than 75 p e r c e n t failed to r e c o g n i z e Scarlatti a n d Tintoretto.
T h e j u d g m e n t s reveal a curious "time w a r p " in the students' perception of
history. F a m o u s c o m p o s e r s as a g r o u p are p l a c e d a b o u t 140 years early a n d famous
scientists are p l a c e d a b o u t 130 years early. In contrast, political a n d religious
leaders are p l a c e d a b o u t 45 years late.
T h e m a g n i t u d e of the w a r p suggests that there is s o m e t h i n g faulty in the
s t u d e n t ' s p e r c e p t i o n o f h i s c u l t u r e . A f t e r a l l , a s l i p p a g e o f six o r s e v e n g e n e r a t i o n s
makes some very surprising contemporaries. For example, the average judgments
make D e b u s s y and Franklin contemporaneous, and they make N e w t o n a few years
older than H e n r y V I I I .
O n e a p p r o a c h to structuring a b o d y of k n o w l e d g e s u c h as this is to p r o v i d e a
set of landmarks. In l e a r n i n g our w a y around a city, we t y p i c a l l y m a k e use of tall
buildings, parks, or other distinctive features to k e e p us oriented to the overall plan
o f the city ( L y n c h , 1960). I n the s a m e w a y , w e can p r o v i d e o u r s e l v e s w i t h land-
m a r k s for l e a r n i n g c u l t u r a l h i s t o r y . T h e m a t r i x s h o w n i n T a b l e 4 i s a f r a m e w o r k o f
l a n d m a r k s for l e a r n i n g t h e r e l a t i o n s o f art, s c i e n c e , a n d p o l i t i c s b e t w e e n 1 4 0 0 a n d
1900. I t i s o r g a n i z e d b y t i m e a n d b y field. I n c o n s t r u c t i n g t h e matrix w e d i v i d e d
t i m e i n t o 5 0 - y e a r i n t e r v a l s a n d d e f i n e d six m a j o r f i e l d s . F o r e a c h t i m e i n t e r v a l , w e
tried to find a notable i n d i v i d u a l in e a c h field w h o m a d e his most important contri-
bution d u r i n g that t i m e interval. T h u s , Mozart w a s c h o s e n as a c o m p o s e r active
b e t w e e n 1 7 5 0 a n d 1800 a n d G a l i l e o , as a scientist a c t i v e b e t w e e n 1600 a n d 1650.
W h i l e the 50-year interval provides only a rather c r u d e specification of time, we
b e l i e v e that students u s i n g the matrix s h o u l d b e a b l e t o m a k e t i m e estimates w h i c h
are c o n s i d e r a b l y m o r e a c c u r a t e t h a n t h e s t u d e n t s w e t e s t e d w h o w e r e i n e r r o r o n
the average by more than a century.
T h e w o r k i n v o l v e d in l e a r n i n g a matrix s u c h as that s h o w n in T a b l e 4 is
c o n s i d e r a b l e . To m a k e the task of l e a r n i n g it a bit easier a n d m o r e palatable, we
h a v e p r o v i d e d the list o f c o n n e c t i o n s s h o w n i n T a b l e 5.* T h e s e c o n n e c t i o n s relate
pairs of p e o p l e in the matrix through an e a s y - t o - r e m e m b e r bit of biographical
information. F o r e x a m p l e , k n o w i n g that Voltaire's mistress translated N e w t o n ' s
w o r k s into F r e n c h m a k e s it easier to r e m e m b e r that the t i m e of Voltaire c l o s e l y
f o l l o w e d that of N e w t o n .
T h e m a t r i x p r o v i d e s a f r a m e w o r k for r e l a t i n g p e o p l e a n d e v e n t s i n c u l t u r a l
history a n d the c o n n e c t i o n s are an aid in learning the matrix. O n c e t h e matrix has
b e e n learned it can help us to organize knowledge we have w h i c h is not contained
in the matrix. M o s t of us h a v e at least s o m e information that can be related to the
matrix. F o r e x a m p l e , w e m a y k n o w that M a r i e A n t o i n e t t e k n e w M o z a r t a s a c h i l d
o r that she w a s b e h e a d e d i n the F r e n c h R e v o l u t i o n . W e m a y k n o w that the British
c h e m i s t P r i e s t l y w a s i n v o l v e d i n a c o n t r o v e r s y w i t h L a v o i s i e r . T h e s e facts w o u l d
a l l o w us to identify t h e s e p e o p l e as figures of the late 1700's a n d as contemporaries
of Kant and G o e t h e . Further, k n o w i n g the matrix can h e l p us to relate n e w informa-
t i o n t o w h a t w e a l r e a d y k n o w . W h e n w e h e a r , for e x a m p l e , t h a t t h e g r e a t p l a g u e
*Because of its length, T a b l e 5 has b e e n placed at the e n d of this chapter, followed by T a b l e 6.

T a b l e 4. A History Matrix
R e l i g i o n (R) Politics (P)

M u s i c (M) Philosophy S c i e n c e (S) Literature (L) Art (A) Wars
1400
John D u n s t a b l e Nicolas of Cusa Gutenberg Death of Chaucer Fra A n g e l i c o Joan of A r c
1369-1453 1401-1464 1398-1468 1400 1400-1455 1412-1431

1450
Josquin D e s Torquemada Columbus Leonardo da Lorenzo de'
Prez Vinci Medici
1440-1521 1420-1498 1451-1506 1452-1519 1449-1492
1500
Thomas Tallis Martin L u t h e r Copernicus Thomas More Michelangelo Henry VIII
1505-1585 1483-1546 1473-1543 1478-1535 1475-1564 1491-1547

1550
Palestrina Giordano Bruno Gilbert Shakespeare El Greco Elizabeth I
1525-1594 1547-1600 1540-1603 1564-1616 1548-1614 1533-1603

1600
Monteverde Rene Descartes Galileo John M i l t o n Rembrandt Oliver Cromwell
1567-1643 1596-1650 1564-1642 1608-1674 1606-1669 1599-1658

1650
Henry Purcell Benedict Newton Restoration Vermeer Louis X I V
Spinoza Comedy
1659-1695 1632-1704 1642-1727 1632-1675 1638-1715
1700
J. S. B a c h George Benjamin Voltaire Hogarth Peter the Great
Berkeley Franklin
1685-1750 1685-1753 1706-1790 1694-1754 1697-1764 1672-1725
1750
W . A . Mozart E m a n u e l Kant Lavoisier Goethe Jacques D a v i d A m e r i c a n and
French
1756-1791 1724-1804 1743-1794 1749-1832 1748-1825 Revolutions
1800
L. Beethoven J. S. M i l l Faraday Balzac Joseph T u r n e r Napoleon
1770-1827 1806-1873 1791-1867 1799-1850 1775-1851 1769-1821

1850
Tchaikovsky Karl Marx Charles Darwin Tolstoy Vincent Van Q u e e n Victoria
Gogh
1840-1893 1818-1883 1809-1882 1828-1910 1853-1890 1819-1901
1900
which killed more than 15 percent of the population of L o n d o n occurred in 1695,

w e realize that i t c o u l d h a v e k i l l e d b o t h P u r c e l l a n d N e w t o n .
T h e t e c h n i q u e of u s i n g a matrix of landmarks can, of course, be a p p l i e d to other
areas of history s u c h as A m e r i c a n history, m u s i c history ( T a b l e 6), a n d literary
history. It can also be a p p l i e d to topics in w h i c h t i m e is not an important d i m e n s i o n ,
as in l e a r n i n g o n e ' s w a y a b o u t a city.
SUMMARY
We h a v e described s e v e n basic learning strategies, each of w h i c h can provide

us c o n s i d e r a b l e h e l p in learning. T h e s e are:
1. T h e structuring strategy
2. T h e context strategy
3. Monitoring
4. Inferencing
5. Instantiation
6. Multiple coding, and
7. Attention management.
W e h a v e d e s c r i b e d t h r e e study s y s t e m s that c o m b i n e s e v e r a l b a s i c l e a r n i n g
strategies in o r g a n i z e d a p p r o a c h e s to study. T h e systems we d e s c r i b e d are:
1. T h e Survey Q 3 R system
2. Dansereau's M U R D E R system, and
3. Jones et al.'s m a s t e r y l e a r n i n g s y s t e m .
Finally, we d e s c r i b e d three applications of the learning strategies to hard

cases:
1. L e a r n i n g zoological categories
2. L e a r n i n g formulas in physics, and
3. L e a r n i n g cultural history.
REFERENCES
Ausubel, D.P. " T h e Use of A d v a n c e Organizers in the Learning and Retention of
M e a n i n g f u l V e r b a l M a t e r i a l . " Journal of Educational Psychology, 51, 2 6 7 - 2 7 2 ,
1960.
Bartlett, B.J. Top-level Structure as an Organizational Strategy for Recall of Class-

room Text. D o c t o r a l D i s s e r t a t i o n , A r i z o n a S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y , 1 9 7 8 .
D a n s e r e a u , D . F . , M c D o n a l d , B . A . , C o l l i n s , K . W . , G a r l a n d , J., H o l l e y , C . E . , D i e k -
hoff, G . M . , a n d E v a n s , S . H . " E v a l u a t i o n o f a L e a r n i n g S t r a t e g y S y s t e m . " I n
Cognitive and Affective Learning Strategies, e d i t e d b y H . F . O ' N e i l , Jr., a n d C D .
Spielberger. N e w York: A c a d e m i c Press, Inc., 1979.
F l o w e r , L . S . , H a y e s , J.R., a n d S w a r t s , H. Revising Functional Documents: The

Scenario Principle. T e c h n i c a l R e p o r t N o . 1 0 , C a r n e g i e - M e l l o n D o c u m e n t D e -
sign Project, Pittsburgh, M a r c h , 1980.
G o l d m a n , R., a n d H u d s o n , D . A . " A M u l t i v a r i a t e A n a l y s i s o f A c a d e m i c A b i l i t i e s a n d
S t r a t e g i e s for S u c c e s s f u l a n d U n s u c c e s s f u l C o l l e g e S t u d e n t s i n D i f f e r e n t M a j o r
F i e l d s . " Journal of Educational Psychology, 65, 3 6 4 - 3 7 0 , 1973.
J o n e s , B . F . , M o n s a a s , J.A., a n d K a t i m s , M . " I m p r o v i n g R e a d i n g C o m p r e h e n s i o n :
E m b e d d i n g D i v e r s e L e a r n i n g Strategies W i t h i n a Mastery L e a r n i n g Instruc-
tional F o r m a t . " Paper p r e s e n t e d at the A n n u a l M e e t i n g of the A m e r i c a n Educa-

tional R e s e a r c h Association, San Francisco, April, 1979.
L y n c h , K. The Image of the City. C a m b r i d g e : T e c h n o l o g y Press, 1960.
M e y e r , B . J . F . , a n d F r e e d l e , R. The Effects of Different Discourse Types on Recall.

Princeton: Educational Testing Service, 1978.
R o b i n s o n , F . P . Effective Study. N e w York: Harper & Brothers, 1946.
T a b l e 5 . Biographical N o t e s
1400-1450
M John D u n s t a b l e
Nationality: British
Occupation: Composer
Connection: F o u g h t w i t h t h e B r i t i s h a r m i e s i n F r a n c e a g a i n s t Joan o f
Arc.
R Cardinal Nicolas of Cusa

Nationality: German
Occupation: Roman Catholic prelate, mathematician, and philosopher.
Connection: S u g g e s t e d that the earth m i g h t m o v e around the sun. Sug-
gested measuring the s p e e d of falling bodies with a water
c l o c k c e n t u r i e s b e f o r e Galileo d i d .
S Johann Gutenberg
Nationality: German
Occupation: D e v e l o p e d printing press w i t h m o v a b l e type. He o p e n e d
t h e w a y for w i d e s p r e a d l i t e r a c y .
L D e a t h of Chaucer
Appearance of modern English.
A Fra Angelico
Nationality: Italian
Occupation: Painter of church frescoes.
Connection: Frescoed the Florentine San Marco Monastery, which was
reconstructed b y the order o f C o s i m o d e ' M e d i c i , father o f
Lorenzo de' Medici (+1).
P Joan of Arc
Nationality: French
Occupation: L e d F r e n c h army to victory against the British. D e c l a r e d
a w i t c h and b u r n e d at the stake.
1450-1500
M Josquin D e s Prez
Nationality: French-Belgian
Occupation: Composer of the Renaissance.
Connection: Martin Luther's f a v o r i t e c o m p o s e r ( + 1 ) .
T a b l e 5 . Biographical N o t e s — C o n t i n u e d
R Tomas D e Torquemada
Nationality: Spanish
Occupation: First Grand Inquisitor of Spain. C a u s e d Jews to be exiled
from Spain. A u t h o r i z e d torture to obtain confessions.
Connection: Confessor to Ferdinand and Isabella, w h o financed the
voyages of Columbus.
S Cristoforo Columbo
Nationality: Italian-Portuguese
Occupation: E x p l o r e d area n o w k n o w n as the W e s t Indies.
Connection: B e l i e v e d t o h a v e i n t r o d u c e d s y p h i l i s i n t o E u r o p e . Henry
VIII (+1) c o n t r a c t e d s y p h i l i s , c a u s i n g m a n y o f h i s c h i l d r e n
to be stillborn.
A Leonardo da Vinci
Occupation: Artist, scientist, e n g i n e e r , inventor. W r o t e treatises on per-
s p e c t i v e , color, anatomy, and m a n y sciences.
Connection: R e c e i v e d p a t r o n a g e from Lorenzo de' Medici.
P Lorenzo de' M e d i c i
Occupation: Leader of republican government in Florence. Had popu-
lar support, a n d r e f o r m e d c o u n c i l s a n d i m p r o v e d g o v e r n -
ment.
1500-1550
M Thomas Tallis
Nationality: English
Occupation: O n e o f t h e first c o m p o s e r s t o w r i t e c h u r c h m u s i c i n E n -
g l i s h . C o u r t c o m p o s e r u n d e r Henry VIII, w h o n a m e d h i m
" g e n t l e m a n " of C h a p e l Royal.
Connections: Unsettled times due to the Reformation caused him to
s w i t c h the l a n g u a g e of his c o m p o s i t i o n s , d e p e n d i n g on the
religion of the current monarch. Was granted a monopoly
o n p r i n t i n g o f m u s i c a n d m u s i c p a p e r b y Elizabeth I (+1).
R Martin Luther
Nationality: German
Occupation: O r d a i n e d priest, composer. Broke a w a y from Catholic
C h u r c h , established Protestantism.
Connection: O p p o s e d p u b l i c a t i o n o f t h e w o r k s o f Copernicus.
S Nicolaus Copernicus
Nationality: Polish
Occupation: A s t r o n o m e r . W r o t e On the Revolutions of the Celestial
Spheres. W a s t h e first t o s t r o n g l y p r o p o s e t h a t t h e e a r t h
revolves around the sun.
Connection: H e w a s 1 9 w h e n Columbus d i s c o v e r e d A m e r i c a .
L Thomas More
Occupation: A u t h o r , l a w y e r . W r o t e Utopia. H e c o n d e m n e d t h e r i g h t o f
man to interpret the Scriptures freely, and thus sided w i t h
the Catholic position in the Reformation.
Connection: F r i e n d o f Henry VIII, u n d e r w h o m h e s e r v e d a s L o r d
C h a n c e l l o r . R e f u s e d to confirm the oath of the " A c t of
S u c c e s s i o n " b e c a u s e it contained a repudiation of papal
law.
A Michelangelo
Occupation: Painter, sculptor. Painted Sistine C h a p e l ceiling.
Connections: S c u l p t e d t h e t o m b of Lorenzo de' Medici ( — 1). As a y o u n g
m a n , he c o m p e t e d w i t h da Vinci ( — 1) to p a i n t a b a t t l e
scene at the Palazzo Vecchio.
P Henry VIII
Occupation: K i n g o f E n g l a n d , r e s p o n s i b l e for b r i n g i n g P r o t e s t a n t i s m t o
England.
Connections: D e f e n d e d t h e p a p a c y a g a i n s t Luther's attacks. P r e s s u r e d
P o p e C l e m e n t V I I , n e p h e w of Lorenzo de' Medici (—1) to
a c c e p t h i s d i v o r c e from C a t h e r i n e .
1550-1600
M Palestrina
Occupation: Composer, master of music at the Villa d'Este.
Connection: T h e music of Palestrina was in the serious, anti-secular
spirit of the Counter-Reformation. His m u s i c w a s ap-
proved by the C o u n c i l of Trent, w h i c h was formulating
c h u r c h d i s c i p l i n e for t h e C o u n t e r - R e f o r m a t i o n i n r e a c t i o n
to Luther (—1).
R Giordano Bruno
Occupation: R e n e g a d e monk w h o attacked various church doctrines,
including prayer.
Connection: Was arrested by the Inquisition and b u r n e d at the stake.
He was a philosopher w h o borrowed cosmology from
C o p e r n i c u s . H a r d e n e d the C h u r c h ' s attitude toward
Copernican (-1) t h e o r i e s by c o n n e c t i n g it w i t h h e r e t i c a l
doctrines.
S William Gilbert
Occupation: Physician and physicist w h o discovered basic laws of mag-
n e t i s m a n d static e l e c t r i c i t y .
Connections: P e r s o n a l p h y s i c i a n to Elizabeth I. O n e of t h e first s c i e n -
tists o p e n l y to s u p p o r t t h e w o r k of Copernicus (—1) a n d
Giordano Bruno.
L William Shakespeare
Occupation: Famous playwright and poet w h o wrote both comedy and
tragedy.
Connections: P l a y w r i g h t o f t h e Elizabethan e r a . W r o t e a b i o g r a p h i c a l
p l a y on t h e l i f e of Henry VIH (-1).
A El Greco
Nationality: Greek
Occupation: Artist. B e c a m e a court painter in Spain.
Connection: W a s a M a n n e r i s t painter, that is, o n e w h o paints in the
manner of Michelangelo (-1).
P Elizabeth I
Occupation: Queen of England.
Connection: D a u g h t e r of Henry VIII (-1), w h o , d u r i n g h e r r e i g n ,
strengthened the British navy, e n a b l i n g British to defeat
the Spanish Armada.
1600-1650
M Claudio Monteverde
Occupation: C o m p o s e r , music director at San Marco Cathedral, V e n i c e .
R Rene Descartes
Nationality: French
Occupation: Philospher, author, scientist.
Connection: He had b e e n planning the publication of a book support-
i n g t h e v i e w s o f Galileo, b u t w h e n h e l e a r n e d o f G a l i l e o ' s
p e r s e c u t i o n for h i s v i e w s , D e s c a r t e s d e c i d e d a g a i n s t it.
S Galileo Galilei
Occupation: S c i e n t i s t . F o r m u l a t e d l a w s o f f a l l i n g b o d i e s a n d d i d astro-
n o m i c a l o b s e r v a t i o n s s u p p o r t i n g t h e w o r k o f Copernicus.
Connections: A d m i r e d t h e w o r k De Magnete of William Gilbert (-1).
D i s c o v e r e d a principle of inertia, b u t credit is usually
g i v e n t o Descartes, s i n c e G a l i l e o d i d n o t f u l l y d e v e l o p it.
L John Milton
Occupation: A u t h o r . W r o t e Paradise Lost.
Connections: M e t Galileo i n I t a l y . T h e r e a r e m e n t i o n s o f G a l i l e o ' s t e l e -
s c o p e in Paradise Lost. S e r v e d as s e c r e t a r y to t h e C o u n c i l
o f S t a t e u n t i l Cromwell c a m e i n t o p o w e r .
A Rembrandt van Rijn

Nationality: Dutch
Occupation: Painter. Mastered the t e c h n i q u e s of realism w h i c h had
b e e n d e v e l o p i n g u p t o that point, and u s e d t h e m t o g i v e
expression to profound human emotion.
Connection: His painting, " T h e Anatomy L e s s o n of Dr. T u l p , " was
e x h i b i t e d t h e y e a r Vermeer (+1) w a s b o r n .
P Oliver Cromwell
Occupation: S e r v e d as C o m m a n d e r in C h i e f of British troops and as
L o r d Protector to the C o m m o n w e a l t h of E n g l a n d , Scot-
land, and Ireland.
Connection: His uncle, Thomas Cromwell, was C h i e f Minister to
Henry VIII (-1).
1650-1700
M Henry Purcell
Occupation: Court composer, organist and composer for London
Theater.
R Benedict de Spinoza
Nationality: Portuguese-Dutch
Occupation: Philosopher and lens-maker.
Connections: W a s offered a p e n s i o n by F r e n c h officers o c c u p y i n g Hol-
l a n d o n t h e c o n d i t i o n t h a t h e d e d i c a t e a w o r k t o Louis XIV.
R e f u s e d t h e offer. T e r m e d b y Voltaire (+1) a s " l e s s r e a d
than famous."
S Sir Isaac Newton
Occupation: Scientist. Revolutionized physics and astronomy.
Connection: Voltaire's (+1) m i s t r e s s w a s a m a t h e m a t i c i a n w h o t r a n s -
l a t e d N e w t o n ' s w o r k f r o m L a t i n i n t o F r e n c h . V o l t a i r e in-
v e n t e d t h e a p p l e story a b o u t N e w t o n .
L Restoration C o m e d y
A Jan Vermeer
Nationality: Dutch
Occupation: P a i n t e r w h o p e r c e i v e d r e a l i t y a s a " m o s a i c o f c o l o r e d sur-
faces."
P Louis XIV
Nationality: French
Occupation: King of France. Revoked freedom of worship of the French
Protestants and tried to convert t h e m by force.
Connection: Voltaire (+1) w r o t e a b i o g r a p h y o f L o u i s X I V , a n d a d m i r e d
h i m greatly as a y o u t h .
Table 5 . Biographical N o t e s — C o n t i n u e d
1700-1750
M Johann Sebastian Bach

Nationality: German
Occupation: Composer to the court of Prince Leopold of Saxony;
organist.
R George Berkeley
Nationality: Irish
Occupation: Anglican Bishop. Wrote about the religious and economic
p r o b l e m s of Ireland. A s s e r t e d that the scientific w o r l d
v i e w encouraged atheism, w h i c h encouraged vice.
Connection: W r o t e a c r i t i c i s m of Newton's (—1) d i f f e r e n t i a l c a l c u l u s .
S Benjamin Franklin
Nationality: American
Occupation: Inventor, statesman, writer.
Connection: W a s a n a v i d r e a d e r o f Voltaire.
L Voltaire
Nationality: French
Occupation: A u t h o r of sociological and political satire.
Connections: Wrote a biography of Peter the Great. Met George
Berkeley i n E n g l a n d . A u t h o r e d t h e m y t h o f t h e a p p l e fall-
i n g on Newton's (—1) h e a d .
A William Hogarth
Occupation: Painter of social satires.
P Peter the Great

Nationality: Russian
Occupation: C z a r of Russia.
Connection: O p e n e d Russia to the West.
1750-1800
M Wolfgang Mozart
Nationality: German
Occupation: C o m p o s e r of the Classical Era.
Connections: /. S. Bach's (-1) y o u n g e s t s o n b e c a m e a f r i e n d of t h e
Mozart family and influenced the music of Mozart. M o -
z a r t ' s p a t r o n l a t e r b e c a m e Beethoven's (+1) p a t r o n .
R Immanuel Kant
Nationality: German
Occupation: Philosopher.
Connection: Criticized the empiricism of the British philosophers such
as Berkeley (-1).
Table 5. Biographical Notes—Continued
S Antoine Laurent Lavoisier

Nationality: French
Occupation: Chemist. C r e d i t e d with the discovery of oxygen.
Connection: W a s g u i l l o t i n e d d u r i n g t h e French Revolution o n suspi-
cion by the authorities of the revolutionary tribunal.
L Johann von Goethe
Nationality: German
Occupation: Philosopher, astrologer. S t u d i e d anatomy and optics.
Connection: M e t Napoleon (+1) in E r f u r t . N a p o l e o n w a s to h i m a s y m -
bol of political order.
A Jacques Louis D a v i d
Nationality: French
Occupation: Painter of m a n y famous portraits.
Connection: Painted portrait of Lavoisier.
P American and French Revolutions
1800-1850
M L u d w i g van Beethoven
Nationality: German
Occupation: Composer. M a r k e d the e n d of the Classical Era in music
and the b e g i n n i n g of the Romantic Era.
Connection: B e e t h o v e n a n d Goethe (-1) m e t i n 1 8 1 2 , a n d i m m e d i a t e l y
d i s l i k e d e a c h other. B e e t h o v e n t h o u g h t G o e t h e p o m p o u s
and snobbish; G o e t h e thought B e e t h o v e n w i l d and un-
ruly.
A John Stuart Mill

Occupation: Philosopher. O n e of the founders of the Union of W o m e n ' s
Suffrage Societies.
S Michael Faraday
Occupation: Invented the d y n a m o ; investigated electromagnetism.
Connection: R e t i r e d to a h o m e g i v e n to h i m by Queen Victoria (+1).
S Honore de Balzac
Nationality: French
Occupation: A u t h o r . B e l i e v e d t h a t e x t e r n a l c i r c u m s t a n c e s are u n i m p o r -
tant in d e t e r m i n i n g h o w a person's life d e v e l o p s .
Connection: W r o t e a b o u t Napoleon; s a i d , " W h a t N a p o l e o n a c h i e v e d b y
the s w o r d I shall a c h i e v e by the p e n . "
A Joseph Turner
Occupation: Artist.
Connection: W e n t to the L o u v r e in Paris to study Italian paintings
w h i c h Napoleon c a p t u r e d a n d b r o u g h t t o P a r i s .
Table 5 . Biographical N o t e s — C o n t i n u e d
p Napoleon I
Nationality: French
Occupation: Emperor of European empire which he conquered.
Connections: David (—1) p a i n t e d portraits of h i m as a y o u n g e m p e r o r .
1850-1900
M Peter Ilich T c h a i k o v s k y
Occupation: Composer. Wrote highly emotional and dramatic music.
H a d several nervous breakdowns.
R Karl Marx
Nationality: German
Occupation: Author and philosopher. W r o t e Communist Manifesto.
W a s the E u r o p e a n correspondent to Horace Greeley's
New York Tribune.
Connection: W a s a g r e a t r e a d e r of Balzac (-1).
S Charles Darwin
Occupation: Scientist, a r c h a e o l o g i s t , b o t a n i s t . W r o t e Origin of Species.
Connection: Karl Marx s e n t D a r w i n an i n s c r i b e d c o p y of Das Kapital.
L L e o Tolstoy
Occupation: A u t h o r . W r o t e War and Peace a n d Anna Karenina.
Connections: W r o t e a b o u t t h e i n v a s i o n o f R u s s i a b y Napoleon (-1). F e l t
that a classless society w o u l d c o m e about through love and
m o r a l p e r f e c t i o n r a t h e r t h a n t h e p h i l o s o p h y o f Marx.
A Vincent van G o g h
Nationality: Dutch
Occupation: Post-impressionist painter.
P Queen Victoria
Occupation: Q u e e n of England. Spent much of her reign in seclusion,
l e s s e n i n g t h e i n f l u e n c e o f t h e m o n a r c h y o n B r i t i s h affairs.
Connection: N a p o l e o n III w a s a frequent visitor to Victoria.
Table 6. Music Matrix
England France Germany Italy
1550- William G. Palestrina

1600 Byrd 1525-1594
1543-1623
1600- John Bull H. Schutz Claudio

1650 1585-1640 1585-1672 Monteverde
1567-1643
1650- Henry M . A. J- A. Corelli

1700 Purcell Charpentier Pachelbel 1653-1713
1659-1695 1634-1704 1653-1706
1700- John G a y J. P . J. S. B a c h D. Scarlatti

1750 1685-1732 Rameau 1685-1750 1685-1757
1683-1764
1750- William C. W. Gluck W. A. Mozart L. Boccherini

1800 Boyce 1714-1787 1756-1792 1743-1805
1710-1779
1800- H. Berlioz L. B e e t h o v e n G. Rossini

1850 1803-1869 1770-1827 1792-1868
1850- Arthur C. Frank J. B r a h m s G. Verdi

1900 Sullivan 1822-1890 1833-1897 1813-1901
1842-1900
SEVEN.
GETTING THE FACTS STRAIGHT:

MAKING DECISIONS
IN A C O M P L E X W O R L D
W h a t s h o u l d w e h a v e for b r e a k f a s t t h i s m o r n i n g ? W h a t s h o u l d w e w e a r ? D o w e
h a v e t i m e for a n o t h e r c u p o f c o f f e e ? W e c a n ' t g e t t h r o u g h t h e d a y w i t h o u t m a k i n g
m a n y small d e c i s i o n s a b o u t s u c h practical questions. T h e s e d e c i s i o n s are minor
o n e s , b u t s o m e d e c i s i o n s — c h o o s i n g a j o b , a c o l l e g e , a b u s i n e s s p a r t n e r — a r e ex-
tremely important. D e c i s i o n m a k i n g is a frequent and important h u m a n activity.
S i n c e m o s t p e o p l e w o u l d a g r e e that this is true, it is p u z z l i n g that f e w of us reflect
very often or v e r y d e e p l y about the nature of our decision-making processes, or h o w
t h e y m i g h t b e i m p r o v e d . S o m e r e f l e c t s o l i t t l e that t h e y are s u r p r i s e d b y t h e i d e a
that t h e y u s e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s e s a t a l l . I t n e v e r o c c u r s t o t h e m t h a t t h e r e are
alternative d e c i s i o n processes and that t h e y can choose a m o n g t h e m .
D e c i s i o n s a r e n o t all o f o n e k i n d . P r o c e d u r e s for m a k i n g o n e d e c i s i o n — f o r
e x a m p l e , b u y i n g a h o m e — m a y b e e n t i r e l y i n a p p r o p r i a t e for m a k i n g a n o t h e r
decision—for example, what poker bet to make.
In this chapter and the next one we will d e s c r i b e four general t y p e s of deci-
sions w h i c h r e q u i r e different d e c i s i o n p r o c e d u r e s :
J. Decisions under certainty

2. D e c i s i o n s under risk
3. D e c i s i o n s under uncertainty
4. D e c i s i o n s under conflict
T h i s chapter w i l l concentrate on decisions u n d e r certainty. In Chapter 8, we

w i l l d i s c u s s d e c i s i o n s u n d e r risk, uncertainty, a n d conflict.
DECISIONS U N D E R CERTAINTY
I m a g i n e t h a t y o u a r e s e a r c h i n g for a n a p a r t m e n t . Y o u h a v e f o u n d four, all o f

w h i c h h a v e t h e s a m e r e n t — a r e n t t h a t y o u c a n afford. Y o u r t a s k i s t o r a n k t h e
a p a r t m e n t s i n t h e o r d e r o f y o u r p r e f e r e n c e f r o m 1 for b e s t t h r o u g h 4 for t h e w o r s t .
T h e p r o p e r t i e s t h a t y o u s h o u l d c o n s i d e r i m p o r t a n t for t h i s d e c i s i o n a r e s h o w n i n
T a b l e 1.
Do the problem before proceeding:
• \
T a b l e 1. Student A p a r t m e n t s
Making Decisions in a C o m p l e x World 747
N o w fill o u t t h i s c h a r t f r o m t h e i n f o r m a t i o n g i v e n i n T a b l e 2 .
M a n y p e o p l e fail t o n o t i c e t h a t t h e s e t w o p r o b l e m s are r e a l l y t h e s a m e . T h a t is,

apartment Al has exactly the same properties as apartment B4 in T a b l e 2; A2
matches B3; A3 matches B l ; and A4 matches B2. N o w check to see if you have
ranked the m a t c h i n g apartments in the same w a y . If half of y o u r rankings w e r e the
same in the t w o p r o b l e m s , y o u did as w e l l as the a v e r a g e of a g r o u p of 20 faculty
m e m b e r s a t C a r n e g i e - M e l l o n U n i v e r s i t y . T h e p u r p o s e o f w o r k i n g t h r o u g h ex-
a m p l e s s u c h a s t h e s e i s t o i l l u s t r a t e t h e s a d fact t h a t o u r d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p e r f o r m - s
a n c e i s t y p i c a l l y i m p e r f e c t , e v e n i n d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g t a s k s o f a r a t h e r f a m i l i a r sort. \
B e l o w we w i l l discuss further e v i d e n c e of the shortcomings of p e o p l e as decision
m a k e r s . T h e r e i s a m p l e r o o m for i m p r o v e m e n t i n h u m a n d e c i s i o n m a k i n g .
In p r e s e n t i n g p r o b l e m s in this chapter, we w i l l specify the alternatives from
w h i c h the d e c i s i o n m a k e r s c h o o s e , as w e l l as the properties of the alternatives that
should be c o n s i d e r e d in m a k i n g the decision, such as the size of the rooms and
cleanliness, in the a b o v e p r o b l e m . H o w e v e r , in real life, d e c i s i o n s usually don't
p r e s e n t t h e m s e l v e s i n s u c h n e a t form. M o r e often, the d e c i s i o n m a k e r m u s t actively
search out alternatives and e v a l u a t e their properties to find those important e n o u g h
to be considered in making the decision.
We will b e g i n our exploration of decision processes by e x a m i n i n g five different
m e t h o d s w h i c h a r e u s e f u l for m a k i n g d e c i s i o n s u n d e r c e r t a i n t y . T h e first four
m e t h o d s a r e optimization m e t h o d s — t h a t is, t h e y a t t e m p t t o i d e n t i f y t h e v e r y b e s t
a l t e r n a t i v e a v a i l a b l e . T h e fifth m e t h o d , satisficing, s i m p l y l o o k s for t h e first satis-
factory alternative.
OPTIMIZING METHODS
\
Dominance
D o m i n a n c e is the simplest of the decision procedures we will discuss. To use

i t i n m a k i n g d e c i s i o n s , w e m u s t first f i n d t h e d o m i n a n c e r e l a t i o n s a m o n g t h e
alternatives. O n e alternative dominates another if both of the following conditions
are s a t i s f i e d :
1. It is at least as good as t h e o t h e r on all p r o p e r t i e s , a n d

2. It is b e t t e r on at least one p r o p e r t y .
A n y alternative that is d o m i n a t e d by another is d r o p p e d from consideration. A n y

a l t e r n a t i v e t h a t d o m i n a t e s all t h e o t h e r s i s c h o s e n a s b e s t .
N o w let's a p p l y the d o m i n a n c e procedure to the apartment problem. T a b l e 3
s u m m a r i z e s the information a b o u t the four apartments in T a b l e 1. Do any of the
alternatives dominate any of the others?
O n l y o n e alternative dominates another in this p r o b l e m : Alternative 4 d o m i -
nates A l t e r n a t i v e 2. A l t e r n a t i v e 4 is as g o o d as A l t e r n a t i v e 2 in " k i t c h e n , " " g e n e r a l
repair," "noise l e v e l , " "brightness," and "landlord," and it is better in "distance,"
" s i z e , " and " c l e a n l i n e s s . " Alternative 1 does not dominate Alternative 2 b e c a u s e ,
w h i l e it is better in s o m e properties, such as " d i s t a n c e , " it is w o r s e in others.
Strengths and Weaknesses of the Dominance Method
D o m i n a n c e is not a very powerful decision-making m e t h o d b e c a u s e , as the

e x a m p l e a b o v e illustrates, i t u s u a l l y d o e s n ' t e l i m i n a t e v e r y m a n y o f the alter-
natives. T h e a d v a n t a g e of the m e t h o d is that p e o p l e can a g r e e a b o u t w h i c h alterna-
t i v e s are d o m i n a n t . T h e y c a n d o t h i s , e v e n t h o u g h t h e y m a y d i f f e r a b o u t w h a t
p r o p e r t i e s a r e m o s t i m p o r t a n t for m a k i n g t h e d e c i s i o n . T h u s , J o n e s m a y f e e l that t h e
kitchen is the m o s t important property of an apartment w h i l e his w i f e b e l i e v e s that
distance from w o r k is m o s t important. D e s p i t e t h e s e differences, t h e y w i l l agree
that Alternative 4 d o m i n a t e s Alternative 2. We can rely on results obtained by the
d o m i n a n c e m e t h o d b e c a u s e , e v e n if we c h a n g e our minds about h o w important the
various properties are, the d o m i n a n c e relations w i l l be u n c h a n g e d .
T h e d o m i n a n c e m e t h o d i s e a s y t o a p p l y , a n d its r e s u l t s a r e r e l i a b l e . T h e r e f o r e ,
it can be of v a l u e w h e n u s e d to s c r e e n s o m e alternatives from consideration b e f o r e
other d e c i s i o n m e t h o d s are a p p l i e d to the p r o b l e m . A n y alternative that is d o m i - \.
T a b l e 3 . Alternatives
1 2 3 4
Distance in 15 Min 60 M i n 20 M i n 45 Min

Minutes
Size of Average Cramped Comfortable Small

Rooms
Kitchen N e w stove, Stove, etc. Stove, etc. Stove, etc. in

etc. in good con- old but good condi-
dition useable tion
General Needs no Needs no Needs one Needs no

Repair Repair Repair Week work Repair
Cleanliness Needs Needs Ready to Ready to

Vacuuming Vacuuming Move in Move in
Noise Frequently Often Quiet Sometimes Often Quiet

Level Noisy Noisy
Brightness Always needs Very Bright Fairly Very Bright

artificial Bright
light
Landlord Indifferent Cordial Very Cordial

Friendly
Making D e c i s i o n s in a C o m p l e x World 757
c o m p a r e d Alternatives 1 and 3 on the second most important p r o p e r t y — r o o m

s i z e — a n d c h o s e n Alternative 3, since it has larger rooms than Alternative 1.
Notice w h a t w o u l d happen if the order of importance of the properties w e r e
r e v e r s e d , t h a t is, i f l a n d l o r d w e r e t h e m o s t i m p o r t a n t p r o p e r t y , b r i g h t n e s s n e x t , a n d
s o o n . A l t e r n a t i v e s 2 a n d 4 w o u l d b e t i e d for t h e b e s t l a n d l o r d . T h e s e t w o a l t e r n a -
t i v e s are also t i e d on b r i g h t n e s s a n d n o i s e l e v e l . T h e tie is finally b r o k e n in favor
of Alternative 4 by the difference in cleanliness. C h a n g i n g the order of importance
of the properties d o e s not a l w a y s c h a n g e the alternative c h o s e n as best, b u t in this
c a s e it clearly has.
Exercises
U s e the lexicographic m e t h o d to identify the best student in the previous

exercise. A s s u m e that the order of importance of the c o u r s e s from most to least is:
1. C h e m i s t r y , P h y s i c s , C a l c u l u s , Art, E n g l i s h
2. Art, E n g l i s h , C a l c u l u s , P h y s i c s , C h e m i s t r y
Strengths and Weaknesses of the Lexicographic Method
T h e lexicographic method is most appropriate w h e n one of the properties

o u t w e i g h s all o f t h e o t h e r s i n i m p o r t a n c e . Its m a j o r s t r e n g t h u n d e r t h e s e c i r c u m -
stances is that it is q u i c k and easy to apply. T h e m e t h o d is least appropriate w h e n
the properties are r o u g h l y e q u a l in importance. U n d e r these circumstances the
m e t h o d m a y lead us to c h o o s e an alternative w h i c h has a slight advantage in the
most important property, e v e n t h o u g h that advantage is o u t w e i g h e d by b i g disad-
vantages in other properties. T h i s happens b e c a u s e the lexicographic m e t h o d typi-
c a l l y i g n o r e s all b u t t h e m o s t i m p o r t a n t p r o p e r t y .
Additive Weighting
T h e a d d i t i v e - w e i g h t i n g m e t h o d t a k e s all o f t h e p r o p e r t i e s i n t o a c c o u n t b u t
does not give t h e m equal weight. T h e more important properties receive heavy
weights and the less important ones lighter weights.
T o u s e t h e a d d i t i v e - w e i g h t i n g m e t h o d , o n e m u s t h a v e n u m b e r s b o t h for
w e i g h t s o f t h e p r o p e r t i e s a n d for t h e v a l u e s o f t h e p r o p e r t i e s . F o r e x a m p l e , i n
T a b l e 4 w e h a v e p r o v i d e d n u m e r i c a l w e i g h t s for t h e p r o p e r t i e s i n t h e r i g h t - h a n d
c o l u m n : 7 for d i s t a n c e , 4 for s i z e o f r o o m s , e t c . W e h a v e a l s o p r o v i d e d n u m b e r s f r o m
1 t o 5 for t h e v a r i o u s v a l u e s o f e a c h o f t h e p r o p e r t i e s . T h e s e a r e s h o w n i n T a b l e 4
i n p a r e n t h e s e s t o t h e r i g h t o f e a c h p r o p e r t y v a l u e . T h e n u m e r i c a l v a l u e 4 i s as-
s i g n e d for t h e 1 5 - m i n u t e d i s t a n c e i n d i c a t i n g a r e l a t i v e l y h i g h o r " g o o d " v a l u e . T h e
numerical v a l u e 1 is a s s i g n e d to the 60-minute distance, indicating a l o w or " p o o r "
v a l u e . T h e n u m b e r s for t h e w e i g h t s a n d v a l u e s o f t h e p r o p e r t i e s a r e i n t e n d e d t o
reflect the importance of the properties and property v a l u e s to the d e c i s i o n maker.
T y p i c a l l y , d e c i s i o n m a k e r s w i l l differ s o m e w h a t i n the i m p o r t a n c e t h e y p l a c e o n
the various properties and v a l u e . F o r e x a m p l e , a tenant w h o is h a n d y w i t h tools m a y
p u t a r e l a t i v e l y l o w v a l u e o n general repair, w h e r e a s o n e w h o i s all t h u m b s m a y
find it m u c h m o r e important. In the s a m e w a y , a p e r s o n m a y not care about the
landlord's attitude as l o n g as he isn't actively hostile. T h u s , he m i g h t w a n t to assign
t h e s a m e n u m e r i c a l v a l u e to indifferent a n d cordial.
To make a decision by the additive-weighting method, multiply numerical
v a l u e s o f t h e p r o p e r t i e s b y t h e w e i g h t s o f t h e p r o p e r t i e s for e a c h a l t e r n a t i v e . T h e n
choose the alternative with the largest sum as " b e s t . " In T a b l e 4, the products of
v a l u e a n d w e i g h t a r e s h o w n i n t h e l o w e r p a r t o f e a c h c e l l . T h e p r o d u c t for d i s t a n c e
for A l t e r n a t i v e 1 i s t h e w e i g h t 7 m u l t i p l i e d b y t h e v a l u e 4 , o r 2 8 . A l t e r n a t i v e 1 h a s
the largest sum of products, 75, and is therefore c h o s e n as the best alternative by
the a d d i t i v e - w e i g h t i n g m e t h o d .
Exercises
Apply the additive-weighting procedure to the following problems:
J . W h i c h w o u l d b e t h e b e s t a p a r t m e n t i n T a b l e 3 i f all o f t h e w e i g h t s w e r e e q u a l ?
2 . I f t h e w e i g h t s for t h e s u b j e c t s i n E x e r c i s e 1 w e r e C h e m i s t r y 4 , P h y s i c s 4 , C a l -
culus 5, Art 2, and English 3, w h o w o u l d be the best student?
3 . I f t h e w e i g h t s for t h e s u b j e c t s w e r e C h e m i s t r y 2 , P h y s i c s 2 , C a l c u l u s 4 , A r t 5 ,
and English 4, w h o w o u l d be the best student?
Strengths and Weaknesses of the Additive Weighting Method
T h e a d d i t i v e - w e i g h t i n g m e t h o d t a k e s all o f t h e p r o p e r t i e s i n t o a c c o u n t i n
m a k i n g the d e c i s i o n , b u t it doesn't take the interactions of the properties into
account. W h e n w e say that t w o properties interact, w e m e a n that the importance w e
assign to a value of one property d e p e n d s on the value w h i c h other properties
happen to have. For example, the importance we place on the friendliness of the
landlord m a y d e p e n d on the condition of the apartment. If the apartment needs a
great deal of repair, it m a y be v e r y important that the landlord is friendly.
T h e a d d i t i v e - w e i g h t i n g m e t h o d can lead t o inappropriate decisions b y ignor-
ing these interactions, just as the lexicographic m e t h o d can lead to inappropriate
d e c i s i o n s b y i g n o r i n g t h e l e s s i m p o r t a n t p r o p e r t i e s . H o w e v e r , i g n o r i n g t h e s e inter-
actions is not really a v e r y serious p r o b l e m in most cases. T h i s fact is illustrated in
the following e x a m p l e , suggested by Y n t e m a and Torgerson's (1961) analysis of
decisions.
S u p p o s e that y o u are a scoutmaster a n d that y o u h a v e the task of a w a r d i n g merit
b a d g e s t o y o u r n u m e r o u s c h a r g e s a t t h e e n d o f t h e y e a r . T h e r e a l i t i e s o f life h a v e
forced y o u to c o n c e n t r a t e on j u s t three of the 10 b o y scout virtues this year: helpful-
ness, cleanliness, and honesty. D u r i n g the year, you have given each scout a grade
f r o m 1 ( l o w ) t o 7 ( h i g h ) for h i s p e r f o r m a n c e o n e a c h o f t h e s e t h r e e v i r t u e s . T h e
problem, now, is w h o gets the badges.
Y o u a n d t h e a s s i s t a n t s c o u t m a s t e r a g r e e t h a t t h e t h r e e v i r t u e s are e q u a l l y
important. T h e assistant s u g g e s t s that i t w o u l d b e e a s y t o m a k e the d e c i s i o n b y
a d d i t i v e w e i g h t i n g . " A f t e r a l l , " h e p o i n t s o u t , " i f t h e w e i g h t s a r e all e q u a l , w e c a n
l e t t h e m all b e 1 . " T h e n M e r i t , M , w i l l j u s t b e e q u a l t o
1 • helpfulness score + 1 • cleanliness score + 1 • honesty score
or
M = helpfulness + cleanliness + honesty,
or
M = h e + cl + h o
H e i s d e l i g h t e d , b u t y o u are w o r r i e d . Y o u k n o w y o u r t r o o p , a n d y o u k n o w t h a t
t h e v i r t u e s i n t e r a c t w i t h e a c h o t h e r . F o r e x a m p l e , t h e r e w a s t h a t d i r t y little k i d ,
S n y d e r , w h o w a s r e a l l y h e l p f u l i n t h e l i b r a r y , b u t h e g o t t h e b o o k s s o d i r t y that t h e y
had to be b u r n e d . H e l p f u l n e s s and honesty interact too. R e m e m b e r Gionelli, w h o
h e l p e d lots o f o l d m e n a c r o s s t h e s t r e e t a n d t h e n p i c k e d t h e i r p o c k e t s ? I n y o u r
w i s d o m y o u k n o w that the merit contributed b y e a c h virtue d e p e n d s o n the values
of the other virtues. Y o u k n o w that true merit is m e a s u r e d by this formula:
True Merit = (He • Cl) + (Cl • Ho) + (Ho • He)

N o w that's a lot different from
M = He + Cl + Ho!
N e v e r t h e l e s s , y o u r assistant s e e m s quite u n t r o u b l e d w h e n y o u tell h i m these

h a r d facts o f l i f e . " I t ' s t r u e , " h e s a y s , " t h o s e v i r t u e s r e a l l y i n t e r a c t v e r y s t r o n g l y , b u t
that d o e s n ' t m e a n that the a d d i t i v e - w e i g h t i n g s c h e m e is g o i n g to c a u s e us to m a k e
lots o f m i s t a k e s . W h a t w e are t r y i n g t o d o i s t o o r d e r t h e s c o u t s a c c o r d i n g t o t h e i r
true merit. We make a mistake only w h e n a higher merit scout gets a l o w e r additive-
w e i g h t i n g s c o r e t h a n a l o w e r m e r i t s c o u t . " T h a t is,
if M > Mx 2 (the a d d i t i v e - w e i g h t i n g s c o r e s )
but ( T r u e M e r i t ) > ( T r u e M e r i t ^
2
T o r g e r s o n and Y n t e m a a r g u e that in ordinary c i r c u m s t a n c e s this d o e s n ' t hap-

pen very much. S u p p o s e we w e r e to select t w o scouts at random and suppose
f u r t h e r that t h e s c o u t s s p r e a d t h e m s e l v e s o u t e v e n l y o n t h e v i r t u e s c a l e . T h a t is, a
s c o u t is j u s t as l i k e l y to s c o r e a 1 on c l e a n l i n e s s or h o n e s t y as 2 or 4 or 7. If t h e t r u e
merit of one scout is 6 units greater than the other (which h a p p e n s 86 p e r c e n t of the
time), T o r g e r s o n and Y n t e m a calculate that the additive w e i g h t i n g score, M, will
a l s o b e g r e a t e r for t h e m o r e v i r t u o u s s c o u t i n 9 9 . 5 p e r c e n t o f c a s e s .
What about the r e m a i n i n g 14 percent of cases in w h i c h the difference in true
merit is less than 6? T h e a d d i t i v e - w e i g h t i n g procedure can't do w o r s e than chance,
so it s h o u l d g e t as a m i n i m u m an additional s e v e n p e r c e n t of t h e d e c i s i o n s right.
Thus, e v e n though it ignores interactions, the additive-weighting procedure makes
the right c h o i c e in at least 93 p e r c e n t (86% + 7%) of cases in a p r o b l e m w i t h strong
interaction. F u r t h e r , it t e n d s not to m a k e b a d errors. T h a t is, in cases w h e r e t h e r e
is a b i g difference in true value b e t w e e n the alternatives, the additive-weighting
m e t h o d almost a l w a y s m a k e s the right d e c i s i o n . W e can c o n c l u d e that the additive-
weighting method, e v e n though it ignores interactions, is a reasonably good deci-
s i o n m e t h o d i n g e n e r a l . I n p a r t i c u l a r , i t s h o u l d d o a g o o d j o b for u s i n a s s i g n i n g
merit b a d g e s .
T h e major d r a w b a c k of the a d d i t i v e - w e i g h t i n g m e t h o d is that it is time c o n s u m -
i n g . O b t a i n i n g t h e n u m b e r s for t h e w e i g h t s a n d v a l u e s o f t h e p r o p e r t i e s i s p r o b a b l y
the most difficult part of the m e t h o d . In some cases, these n u m b e r s can be d e r i v e d
from o b j e c t i v e c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , s u c h a s t h e p o s t e d p r i c e s o f cars o r t h e c a l o r i c c o n -
tent of various foods. In other cases, t h e y must be o b t a i n e d t h r o u g h subjective
e s t i m a t i o n . I n u s i n g t h e a d d i t i v e - w e i g h t i n g m e t h o d for A p a r t m e n t s 1 , 2 , 3 , a n d 4
(Table 4), w e h a d t o m a k e e i g h t estimates o f property w e i g h t s and 4 0 estimates o f
property values.
O n c e the necessary numbers have b e e n obtained, a few minutes worth of
m u l t i p l y i n g a n d a d d i n g still m u s t b e d o n e t o f i n d t h e b e s t c h o i c e . A l l t h i n g s c o n -
sidered, the additive-weighting method may require b e t w e e n half an hour and an
hour to complete. T h i s is likely more time than y o u w o u l d w a n t to s p e n d choosing
your dessert i n the l u n c h line. H o w e v e r , i t m a y w e l l b e w o r t h s p e n d i n g that a m o u n t
of time if the d e c i s i o n is an important or e x p e n s i v e one, such as the c h o i c e of a
graduate school or a n e w car.
Effectiveness Indices
In s o m e c a s e s , it is important to take into a c c o u n t the interactions w h i c h the

a d d i t i v e - w e i g h t i n g m o d e l ignores. T h i s m a y h a p p e n e i t h e r b e c a u s e the interac-
t i o n s are e s p e c i a l l y s t r o n g o r b e c a u s e e r r o r s i n d e c i s i o n s a r e v e r y c o s t l y , o r b o t h .
B o t h are t r u e i n c e r t a i n m e d i c a l s i t u a t i o n s i n w h i c h t h e p a t i e n t m u s t r e c e i v e t w o
kinds of m e d i c a t i o n simultaneously. S o m e pairs of drugs h a v e effects in combina-
t i o n w h i c h n e i t h e r o f t h e m h a s a l o n e . T h a t is, t h e d r u g s i n t e r a c t w i t h e a c h o t h e r . I n
s o m e c a s e s , t h e s e i n t e r a c t i o n s are l i f e - t h r e a t e n i n g a n d m u s t b e t a k e n i n t o a c c o u n t
i n c h o o s i n g a p p r o p r i a t e d o s a g e l e v e l s . F o r c a s e s o f t h i s sort, w e n e e d a d e c i s i o n
m e t h o d m o r e c o m p l e x than additive w e i g h t i n g , w h i c h will take the interactions
i n t o a c c o u n t . W e w i l l u s e t h e t e r m effectiveness index t o d e s i g n a t e all s u c h " m o r e
c o m p l e x " methods. Often such methods will involve a physical, chemical, or engi-
n e e r i n g m o d e l b a s e d o n e x t e n s i v e a n a l y s i s o f t h e s i t u a t i o n a b o u t w h i c h w e are
m a k i n g decisions. D e s i g n i n g and implementing such a m e t h o d may be very expen-
sive indeed.
We w i l l not ask the reader to construct any effectiveness indices. O u r purpose
in d i s c u s s i n g effectiveness indices is simply to point out that w h e n it is very
important to get the b e s t decisions, it is possible, though often e x p e n s i v e , to do
better than the m o d e l s we discussed above.
SATISFYING: A NON-OPTIMIZING APPROACH
D e c i s i o n - m a k i n g s i t u a t i o n s t h a t w e m e e t i n d a i l y e x p e r i e n c e are o f t e n a g o o d
deal m e s s i e r than the i d e a l i z e d situations we h a v e d e s c r i b e d a b o v e . Perhaps the
m o s t i m p o r t a n t c o m p l i c a t i o n w e e n c o u n t e r i s that, r a t h e r t h a n b e i n g p r e s e n t e d w i t h
a p r e d e f i n e d l i s t t o c h o o s e f r o m , w e m a y b e f o r c e d t o s e a r c h for a l t e r n a t i v e s . F o r
e x a m p l e , w h e n a t e a c h e r a s s i g n s a " f r e e " t h e m e , t h e s t u d e n t ' s task o f d e c i d i n g w h a t
t o w r i t e a b o u t w i l l r e q u i r e t h a t h e g e n e r a t e a list o f p o s s i b l e t o p i c s . S i m i l a r l y , w h e n
a c o l l e g e w a n t s to f i n d a n e w d e a n , a s e a r c h c o m m i t t e e is a p p o i n t e d to i d e n t i f y a
list of c a n d i d a t e s to be c o n s i d e r e d .
G e n e r a t i n g alternatives, examining their properties, and choosing among the
a l t e r n a t i v e s a r e all a c t i v i t i e s t h a t m a y a d d c o n s i d e r a b l e c o s t t o t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g
p r o c e s s . I n t h e p r o b l e m o f s e a r c h i n g for a d e a n , t h e s e c o s t s i n c l u d e t h e s a l a r i e s o f
t h e s e a r c h - c o m m i t t e e m e m b e r s a n d t h e t r a v e l c o s t s o f c a n d i d a t e s i n v i t e d from o t h e r
c i t i e s . I f t h e list o f c a n d i d a t e s t h a t t h e s e a r c h c o m m i t t e e g e n e r a t e s i s v e r y l a r g e , t h e
costs m a y also be large. If the search c o m m i t t e e takes five years and generates
100,000 n a m e s , c l e a r l y d e c i s i o n m a k i n g i s g o i n g t o b e v e r y e x p e n s i v e . T h e
d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g t e c h n i q u e d e s c r i b e d b e l o w can be helpful in practical situations
w h e r e such costs must be considered.
T h e d e c i s i o n m e t h o d s w e h a v e d i s c u s s e d s o far a r e all o p t i m i z i n g m e t h o d s , t h a t
is, m e t h o d s d e s i g n e d t o f i n d t h e b e s t a v a i l a b l e a l t e r n a t i v e . I n this s e c t i o n , w e w i l l
d i s c u s s q u i t e a d i f f e r e n t a p p r o a c h t o d e c i s i o n m a k i n g c a l l e d satisficing, first d e -
s c r i b e d b y S i m o n ( 1 9 5 5 ) . T h i s m e t h o d i s not d e s i g n e d t o i d e n t i f y t h e b e s t a l t e r n a -
t i v e . R a t h e r it is d e s i g n e d to f i n d t h e first satisfactory a l t e r n a t i v e .
T h e satisficing m e t h o d requires the decision maker to identify the worst value
h e i s w i l l i n g t o a c c e p t for e a c h o f t h e a t t r i b u t e s . H e t h e n c o n s i d e r s all o f t h e
a l t e r n a t i v e s i n o r d e r , r e j e c t i n g a n y a l t e r n a t i v e s w h i c h fall b e l o w t h e m i n i m a l v a l u e s
o f t h e a t t r i b u t e s , a n d a c c e p t i n g t h e first a l t e r n a t i v e w h i c h m e e t s a l l o f t h e m i n i m a l
values.
C o n s i d e r i n g T a b l e 3 , s u p p o s e that the d e c i s i o n m a k e r ' s m i n i m a l v a l u e s are:
distance: 45 minutes
room size: small
kitchen: useable
repair: t w o w e e k s ' repair
cleanliness: needs some cleaning
noise: sometimes noisy
brightness: fairly b r i g h t
landlord: indifferent
A l t e r n a t i v e 1 fails t o m e e t t h e m i n i m u m v a l u e s for n o i s e l e v e l a n d b r i g h t n e s s ,
a n d A l t e r n a t i v e 2 fails t o m e e t t h e m i n i m u m v a l u e for d i s t a n c e a n d r o o m s i z e .
A l t e r n a t i v e 3 , h o w e v e r , m e e t s all o f t h e m i n i m a l r e q u i r e m e n t s a n d i s t h e r e f o r e
chosen. N o t i c e that Alternative 4 also m e e t s the m i n i m a l r e q u i r e m e n t s b u t w a s not
c h o s e n o r e v e n c o n s i d e r e d b e c a u s e s e a r c h w a s t e r m i n a t e d w h e n t h e first satisfac-
tory a l t e r n a t i v e w a s f o u n d .
Exercises
1. In the example above, what w o u l d be the result if the decision maker insisted
in addition to the other m i n i m u m requirements that the apartment n e e d no
repair? T h a t the stove be n e w ?
2. U s e the satisficing m e t h o d w i t h the data on p a g e 150 to
a . F i n d a g o o d a l l - a r o u n d s t u d e n t — o n e w h o c a n s c o r e 8 5 i n all s u b j e c t s .
b. Find a good science s t u d e n t — o n e w h o can score 90 or better in math and
science.
Strengths and Weaknesses of the Satisficing Method
T h e satisficing m e t h o d is particularly useful w h e n we have to choose a m o n g a

very large n u m b e r of alternatives and it is not essential to find the best. For exam-
p l e , w h e n w e a r e c h o o s i n g a d o z e n a p p l e s f r o m a s u p e r m a r k e t b i n , w e d o n ' t try t o
find t h e 1 2 b e s t a p p l e s . W e c a n ' t b e b o t h e r e d w i t h e x a m i n i n g a n d c o m p a r i n g all o f
Table 5. Decision Making Methods
Method Type U s e this Cost of com- Number of

method: putation re- alternatives
quired examined
Domi- optimizing for p r e l i m i - low all

nance nary screen-
i n g o f alter-
natives
Lexicog- optimizing w h e n attri- very low all

raphy b u t e s are v e r y
different in
weight
Additive optimizing w h e n it is im- high all

Weighting portant to find
t h e b e s t alter-
native
Effective- optimizing w h e n it is very high all

ness Index very i m p o r -
tant to g e t
b e s t alterna-
tive
Satisficing non-optimizing w h e n the cost very low some

of examining
the w h o l e set
of alternatives
is very high
t h e a p p l e s i n t h e b i n . W e s i m p l y p i c k t h e first 1 2 a c c e p t a b l e a p p l e s a n d g o o n t o u s e
t h e s a t i s f i c i n g m e t h o d for s e l e c t i n g p e p p e r o n i , k i w i fruit, o r w h a t e v e r e l s e w e m a y
n e e d . S i m i l a r l y , in the d e a n - s e a r c h task, it is e c o n o m i c a l to stop t h e search as soon
as a s a t i s f a c t o r y c a n d i d a t e is f o u n d .
T h e p r i m a r y a d v a n t a g e o f t h e s a t i s f i c i n g m e t h o d i s t h a t i t c a n y i e l d a satisfac-
t o r y d e c i s i o n w i t h o u t r e q u i r i n g u s t o e x a m i n e all o f t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s . T h u s , c o m -
pared to optimization methods, it can greatly reduce the cost of search in decision
making.
T h e s a t i s f i c i n g m e t h o d m a y n o t y i e l d a d e c i s i o n a t all i f w e s e t o u r s t a n d a r d s
t o o h i g h . F o r e x a m p l e , i n w r i t i n g w e m a y f i n d o u r s e l v e s b l o c k e d b e c a u s e w e are
s e a r c h i n g for t h e p e r f e c t w o r d t o e x p r e s s o u r m e a n i n g w h e n n o n e m a y e x i s t . D i o -
g e n e s s e e m s t o h a v e e n c o u n t e r e d t h i s sort o f d i f f i c u l t y i n h i s s e a r c h for a n h o n e s t
man. As a practical matter w h a t usually h a p p e n s w h e n we run into difficulty in
f i n d i n g a satisfactory a p a r t m e n t or car or e m p l o y e e is that we c h a n g e our m i n d s
a b o u t w h a t is m i n i m a l l y a c c e p t a b l e and set a n e w but, alas, l o w e r standard.
T a b l e 5 summarizes the properties of the decision-making procedures de-
scribed above.
EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES OF D E C I S I O N M A K I N G UNDER CERTAINTY
D o formal d e c i s i o n m e t h o d s h e l p ? T h e correct c h o i c e i n a n y decision situation

d e p e n d s on the decision m a k e r s ' individual values. If t w o p e o p l e m a k e different
c h o i c e s in the s a m e situation, it d o e s n ' t m e a n that o n e of t h e m is w r o n g ; it m a y just
b e that t h e y h a v e different v a l u e s . T h i s m e a n s that w e can't tell h o w g o o d p e o p l e ' s
d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s e s are b y the c h o i c e t h e y m a k e . H o w t h e n can w e measure
i m p r o v e m e n t in decision-making skills?
No matter w h a t p e o p l e ' s v a l u e s are, if t h e y use g o o d d e c i s i o n methods, they
should tend to agree with themselves w h e n they make the same decision twice. To
t e s t for i m p r o v e m e n t i n d e c i s i o n m a k i n g , t h e n , w e m e a s u r e d s e l f - a g r e e m e n t o f
s t u d e n t s m a k i n g a p a r t m e n t d e c i s i o n s ( s e e T a b l e s 1 a n d 2 ) b o t h b e f o r e a n d after t h e y
h a d s t u d i e d the m e t h o d s d e s c r i b e d i n this chapter. O f the 7 1 students tested, 4 9
w e r e more consistent on posttest than pretest, 14 w e r e less consistent, and eight
w e r e u n c h a n g e d . T h e s e results indicate a very reliable i m p r o v e m e n t in consistency
for t h e g r o u p a s a r e s u l t o f t r a i n i n g i n f o r m a l d e c i s i o n m e t h o d s .
I N F O R M A T I O N - P R O C E S S I N G LIMITS IN D E C I S I O N M A K I N G
Often w h e n we are m a k i n g an important d e c i s i o n , such as w h a t c o l l e g e to

a t t e n d o r w h e r e t o s p e n d o u r v a c a t i o n , w e m a k e a n effort t o g e t a s m u c h i n f o r m a t i o n
a s p o s s i b l e a b o u t e a c h o f t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s . I m p l i c i t i n t h i s effort i s o u r a s s u m p t i o n
that m o r e r e l e v a n t information a b o u t the alternatives w i l l e n a b l e us to m a k e better
d e c i s i o n s . A study by H a y e s (1962) indicates that this a s s u m p t i o n isn't necessarily
t r u e i f t h e d e c i s i o n m a k e r i s not u s i n g a f o r m a l d e c i s i o n p r o c e d u r e .
H a y e s s t u d i e d m i l i t a r y p e r s o n n e l m a k i n g d e c i s i o n s a b o u t a s i m u l a t e d air-
d e f e n s e situation. T h e alternatives w e r e characterized b y e i g h t e q u a l l y important
relevant properties. For some decisions, information was available about only two
o f t h e p r o p e r t i e s . F o r o t h e r d e c i s i o n s , i t w a s a v a i l a b l e for four, six, o r all e i g h t o f t h e
properties. In all cases, the correctness of a d e c i s i o n w a s s c o r e d on the basis of the
"real-world situation" m e a s u r e d b y all e i g h t properties, w h e t h e r the decision
m a k e r h a d s e e n all of t h e m or not.
T h e surprising result w a s that the d e c i s i o n m a k e r s m a d e j u s t a s g o o d decisions
w h e n t h e y w e r e g i v e n t w o r e l e v a n t facts a s w h e n t h e y w e r e g i v e n four, six, o r e i g h t .
T h e s u b j e c t s m u s t h a v e b e e n d e r i v i n g u s e f u l i n f o r m a t i o n f r o m t h e e x t r a facts,
t h o u g h , b e c a u s e w h e n i r r e l e v a n t facts r a t h e r t h a n r e l e v a n t o n e s w e r e a d d e d , t h e
d e c i s i o n s b e c a m e d i s t i n c t l y w o r s e . T h e s e r e s u l t s s u g g e s t t h a t e x t r a r e l e v a n t facts
both h e l p a n d hurt. T h e y add extra information, b u t t h e y also confuse the decision
maker. C o m p a r i n g several alternatives simultaneously on four or more properties
a p p e a r s t o b e a v e r y d i f f i c u l t task for m o s t p e o p l e t o d o i n t h e i r h e a d s . D e c i s i o n
m e t h o d s s u c h a s l e x i c o g r a p h y a n d a d d i t i v e w e i g h t i n g are u s e f u l b e c a u s e t h e y a l l o w
p e o p l e t o s u b s t i t u t e r e l i a b l e o b j e c t i v e p r o c e d u r e s for u n r e l i a b l e s u b j e c t i v e o n e s .
REFERENCES
H a y e s , J.R. Human Data Processing Limits in Decision Making. T e c h n i c a l D o c u -

mentary Report No. ESD-TDR-62-48. Bedford, MA: Operational Applications
Laboratory, July, 1962.
S i m o n , H.A. "A B e h a v i o r a l M o d e l o f R a t i o n a l C h o i c e . " Quarterly Journal o f Eco-

nomics, 6 9 , 9 9 - 1 1 8 , 1 9 5 5 .
Yntema, D.B., and Torgerson, W . S . Man-Computer Cooperation in Decisions

Requiring Common Sense. I R E T r a n s a c t i o n s , T G H F E , H F E - 2 , 20-26, 1961.
EIGHT.
THE LUCK OF THE D R A W :

DEALING W I T H C H A N C E
IN DECISION M A K I N G
I n m a k i n g d e c i s i o n s u n d e r c e r t a i n t y , o u r task i s t o f i g u r e o u t w h i c h o f t h e
alternatives w e like best. W h e n w e m a k e a choice, w e a s s u m e that w e will get the
alternative w e w a n t . I f w e tell the car sales dealer, " I ' l l take the y e l l o w M a z d a , " w e
e x p e c t t o g e t it. I f t h e y d e l i v e r a b l u e p a i s l e y F i a t i n s t e a d , w e w o u l d l i k e l y b e v e r y
upset.
T^UT, I ORDERED A YELLOUJ A \ A Z P / * '.

I n t h i s c h a p t e r , w e w i l l d i s c u s s d e c i s i o n s o f q u i t e a d i f f e r e n t sort: W h a t y o u
w a n t may b e w h a t y o u g e t , b u t t h e n a g a i n i t m a y not. T h a t i s , w e w i l l s t u d y
decisions in w h i c h some e v e n t not u n d e r your control intervenes b e t w e e n your
c h o i c e a n d its o u t c o m e .
C o n s i d e r m y d e c i s i o n t o r u n for P r e s i d e n t , for e x a m p l e . I t i s t r u e that t h e
campaign w o u l d cost m a n y millions of dollars, but the j o b is really a nice one. It
p r o v i d e s free h o u s i n g and, u n l i k e m a n y other j o b s , a l l o w s o n e t o m a k e State o f the
Union addresses and be C o m m a n d e r - i n - C h i e f of the armed forces.
N o w , e v e n t h o u g h I'd like the j o b , I've d e c i d e d not t o i n v e s t m y millions
b e c a u s e I k n o w that this is not a d e c i s i o n u n d e r certainty. E v e n if I w e r e to invest
m y m i l l i o n s , I w o u l d n o t b e certain o f g e t t i n g t h e j o b . B e t w e e n m y i n v e s t m e n t a n d
t h e j o b l i e s a n e l e c t i o n w h i c h m i g h t n o t n e c e s s a r i l y g o m y w a y . I n fact, s o m e f o r m e r
f r i e n d s s u g g e s t e d t h a t m y c h a n c e s are s o p o o r t h a t I w o u l d i n e f f e c t b e g i v i n g m y
money away.
My decision then d e p e n d s not just on finding the alternative I w a n t most, but
also on the e v e n t s intervening b e t w e e n c h o i c e and outcome.
I n t e r v e n i n g e v e n t s m a y b e o f t h r e e d i f f e r e n t sorts: c h a n c e e v e n t s t o w h i c h w e
can assign a probability, such as the flipping of a coin; c h a n c e events to w h i c h
w e c a n ' t a s s i g n a p r o b a b i l i t y , s u c h a s t h e e r u p t i o n o f M t . St. H e l e n ; a n d e v e n t s
under the control of an o p p o n e n t w h o is trying to beat us, such as the moves of our
o p p o n e n t i n a c h e s s g a m e . T h e s e t h r e e sorts o f i n t e r v e n i n g e v e n t s c o r r e s p o n d t o t h e
t h r e e t y p e s o f d e c i s i o n s w e w i l l d i s c u s s i n this c h a p t e r : d e c i s i o n s u n d e r risk,
decisions u n d e r uncertainty, and decisions u n d e r conflict. H e r e are e x a m p l e s of
each of these three types of decisions:
Risk
G a m b l i n g d e c i s i o n s are t y p i c a l o f d e c i s i o n s u n d e r risk. I n r o u l e t t e , for e x a m -

p l e , the g a m b l e r c h o o s e s a n u m b e r on w h i c h to bet, say, 17. T h e n a c h a n c e e v e n t ,
the position at w h i c h a metal ball c o m e s to rest on the roulette w h e e l , d e t e r m i n e s
t h e o u t c o m e o f the g a m b l e r ' s c h o i c e . I f the ball stops o n 17, h e w i n s ; o t h e r w i s e , h e
loses.
A n e s s e n t i a l f e a t u r e o f d e c i s i o n s u n d e r risk i s t h a t w e c a n c a l c u l a t e a p r o b a b i l -
ity for t h e e f f e c t o f t h e c h a n c e e v e n t . I n r o u l e t t e , for e x a m p l e , w e k n o w t h a t t h e r e
are 3 8 p l a c e s a t w h i c h t h e b a l l i s e q u a l l y l i k e l y t o s t o p . T h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f g e t t i n g
1 7 , t h e n , is j u s t '/ss-
Uncertainty
L i k e d e c i s i o n s u n d e r risk, d e c i s i o n s u n d e r u n c e r t a i n t y i n v o l v e a c h a n c e factor.
T h e u n i q u e feature of d e c i s i o n s u n d e r uncertainty is that we can't calculate a
p r o b a b i l i t y for t h e e f f e c t o f t h e c h a n c e e v e n t . B u y i n g a C h r i s t m a s p r e s e n t for A u n t
E m m a , for e x a m p l e , i s a d e c i s i o n u n d e r u n c e r t a i n t y , i f h e r t a s t e s ( t h e c h a n c e factor)
are u n k n o w n t o u s .
F o r most of us, d e c i d i n g w h e t h e r to go on a picnic w h e n the w e a t h e r looks
t h r e a t e n i n g i s m a k i n g a d e c i s i o n u n d e r u n c e r t a i n t y . W e k n o w t h a t i t m a y rain, b u t
w e don't k n o w e n o u g h a b o u t w e a t h e r forecasting t o calculate the probability that
i t w i l l rain. W e can c h a n g e the d e c i s i o n from o n e u n d e r u n c e r t a i n t y t o o n e u n d e r
risk i f w e a s k t h e w e a t h e r b u r e a u t o t e l l u s t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f r a i n .
Conflict
D e c i s i o n s u n d e r c o n f l i c t are c o m m o n i n c o m p e t i t i v e g a m e s , l i k e c h e s s a n d
tennis, and in business and war. W h e n y o u choose a m o v e in chess, or a strategy
Dealing With C h a n c e in Decision Making 763
i n t e n n i s , y o u k n o w t h a t y o u r o p p o n e n t w i l l d o h i s b e s t t o c o u n t e r y o u r m o v e o r foil
your strategy.
E a c h d e c i s i o n t y p e requires a different approach. In decisions u n d e r certainty,
t h e m a i n d i f f i c u l t y i s d e c i d i n g w h i c h a l t e r n a t i v e i s b e s t . I n d e c i s i o n s u n d e r risk a n d
uncertainty, the b i g p r o b l e m is d e a l i n g w i t h the effects of c h a n c e ; and in decisions
u n d e r conflict, it is taking account of the hostile action of our opponent. T h e
r e l a t i o n s b e t w e e n c h o i c e a n d o u t c o m e for all f o u r d e c i s i o n t y p e s are d i a g r a m m e d
in F i g u r e 1.
D E C I S I O N S UNDER RISK*
S u p p o s e that y o u h a v e several h u n d r e d spare dollars in y o u r p o c k e t and that

y o u are g i v e n t h e c h o i c e o f p l a y i n g t h e f o l l o w i n g t w o g a m e s a s m a n y t i m e s a s y o u
l i k e . B o t h g a m e s i n v o l v e t o s s i n g a fair c o i n .
Game 1 : Y o u w i n $2.00 w h e t h e r t h e c o i n c o m e s u p h e a d s o r t a i l s .
Game 2 : Y o u w i n $ 1 0 . 0 0 i f t h e c o i n c o m e s u p h e a d s a n d l o s e $5.00 i f i t c o m e s
up tails.
W h i c h game should y o u prefer to play?

O n e w i d e l y r e c o m m e n d e d t e c h n i q u e for m a k i n g r i s k y d e c i s i o n s l i k e this o n e
i s t o c h o o s e t h e a c t i o n w h i c h h a s t h e g r e a t e s t expected value. T h e e x p e c t e d v a l u e
of an action is the average payoff value we can expect if we repeat the action many
times.
T h e a v e r a g e p a y o f f i n G a m e 1 i s e a s y t o c o m p u t e . S i n c e y o u w i n $2.00 w h e t h e r
t h e c o i n c o m e s u p h e a d s o r t a i l s , t h e a v e r a g e p a y o f f h a s t o b e $2.00. I n G a m e 2 ,
w h e r e t h e p a y o f f s a r e n ' t e q u a l , w e c a n c o m p u t e t h e a v e r a g e payoff, o r e x p e c t e d
value, using the following formula:
1. E x p e c t e d V a l u e = a v e r a g e p a y o f f = p r o b a b i l i t y of a h e a d X
p a y o f f for h e a d s +
p r o b a b i l i t y of a tail X
p a y o f f for tails
or s y m b o l i c a l l y
Since the e x p e c t e d value of G a m e 2 is greater than the e x p e c t e d value of G a m e 1,

we should choose G a m e 2 in order to maximize our e x p e c t e d value.
* Appendix II provides an elementary introduction to probability. If you are not familiar

with the concept of probability, read A p p e n d i x II before proceeding.
A n o t h e r Example
S u p p o s e t h a t y o u a r e t h e p r o d u c e r for t h e l o c a l t h e a t e r c o m p a n y . L o n g e x p e r i -
e n c e has t a u g h t y o u that m u s i c a l s b r i n g in a lot of m o n e y , $10,000, if t h e y s u c c e e d ,
b u t 8 0 % o f t h e t i m e t h e y fail a n d , d u e t o h i g h p r o d u c t i o n c o s t s , l o s e a n a v e r a g e o f
$2,000. C o m e d i e s , o n t h e o t h e r h a n d , b r i n g i n m u c h l e s s w h e n t h e y s u c c e e d ,
$3,000, b u t t h e y s u c c e e d m o r e f r e q u e n t l y , 5 0 % o f t h e t i m e , a n d l o s e l e s s —
$ 1 , 0 0 0 — w h e n t h e y f l o p . Y o u a r e p l a n n i n g a d e v e l o p m e n t a l p r o g r a m for y o u r
theater, and must d e c i d e either on a series of musicals or a series of c o m e d i e s .
W h i c h c h o i c e w i l l m a x i m i z e e x p e c t e d v a l u e for y o u r t h e a t e r ?
EV ( m u s i c a l ) = 0.2 x $10,000 + 0.8 x - $ 2 , 0 0 0

= $2,000 - $ 1 , 6 0 0
= + $400
EV ( c o m e d y ) = 0.5 x $3,000 + 0.5 x - $ 1 , 0 0 0
= $ 1 , 5 0 0 - $500
= + $1,000
To maximize e x p e c t e d value, you should choose the series of c o m e d i e s .

In m a n y situations, we have to deal with more than t w o possible outcomes. For
e x a m p l e , w i t h a s i n g l e d i e , w e c a n roll a n y n u m b e r f r o m o n e t h r o u g h six, a n d w i t h
t w o d i c e , any n u m b e r from t w o through t w e l v e . T o c o m p u t e e x p e c t e d v a l u e s i n
such cases, we have to expand Equation 1 as follows:
2. EV = P(l)-V(l)+P(2)-V(2)+P(3)-V(3)+ . . . . +P(N)-V(N)
T h a t is, in a situation w i t h N possible o u t c o m e s , the e x p e c t e d v a l u e (EV) is simply

t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f e a c h o u t c o m e t i m e s t h e v a l u e o f t h a t o u t c o m e a d d e d u p o v e r all
of the possible outcomes.
W e c a n u s e E q u a t i o n 2 t o c o m p u t e t h e e x p e c t e d v a l u e for G a m e 3 .
Game 3 . R o l l i n g a s i n g l e d i e , y o u w i n $6.00 i f y o u g e t a o n e , $5.00 i f y o u g e t

a t w o , etc.
For this g a m e , the probability of e a c h o u t c o m e is one-sixth, since e a c h of the

six n u m b e r s h a s e q u a l p r o b a b i l i t y a n d t h e e x p e c t e d v a l u e i s
EV (Game 3) = V ($6.00)+V ($5.00)+V ($4.00)+V ($3.00)+V ($2.00)+V ($1.00)

6 6 6 6 6 6
_ ($6.00 + $5.00 + $4.00 + $3.00 + $2.00 + $1.00)
= $21.00
6
= $3.50
Since the e x p e c t e d value of G a m e 3 is greater than the e x p e c t e d values of either

G a m e 1 or G a m e 2, y o u should prefer to play G a m e 3 to the other g a m e s in order
to maximize expected value.
Exercises
F i n d t h e e x p e c t e d v a l u e for t h e f o l l o w i n g g a m e s :
1 . I f a fair c o i n c o m e s u p h e a d s , y o u w i n $ 1 . 0 0 ; o t h e r w i s e y o u l o s e $1.00.
2 . I f y o u r o l l o n e d i e a n d g e t a six y o u w i n $5.00; o t h e r w i s e y o u l o s e $1.00.
3 . O n a r o u l e t t e w h e e l t h e r e are 3 6 n u m b e r e d p o s i t i o n s a n d t w o h o u s e p o s i t i o n s .
I f t h e b a l l s t o p s o n y o u r n u m b e r , y o u g e t y o u r d o l l a r b a c k p l u s $35.00. O t h e r w i s e
y o u lose y o u r dollar.
4 . Y o u g e t $6.00 i f y o u r o l l a s e v e n o n a p a i r o f d i c e a n d y o u l o s e $ 1 . 0 0 i f y o u r o l l
any other number. *
5 . Y o u g e t $ 3 5 . 0 0 i f y o u r o l l a 1 2 o n a p a i r o f d i c e a n d y o u l o s e $ 1 . 0 0 i f y o u roll a n y
other number.
DECISIONS UNDER UNCERTAINTY
Sailing, swimming, or tennis?
S u p p o s e that y o u h a v e t o m a k e plans o n e s u m m e r e v e n i n g w h e t h e r t o g o
sailing or s w i m m i n g the next day. T h e w e a t h e r forecast is " s u n n y " b u t says nothing
about w i n d s . Y o u h a v e no i d e a w h e t h e r it w i l l be w i n d y or not. Preparations h a v e
t o b e m a d e n o w , s o y o u can't w a i t till t o m o r r o w t o s e e w h a t the w i n d s w i l l b e l i k e .
Y o u k n o w t h a t i f t h e w i n d s are g o o d , s a i l i n g w i l l b e e x c e l l e n t . I f it's n o t w i n d y ,
though, sailing will be hot and dull. On the other hand, s w i m m i n g will be chilly and
u n c o m f o r t a b l e if it is w i n d y , b u t p e r f e c t if it isn't. To h e l p w i t h the d e c i s i o n y o u
p r e p a r e a t a b l e l i k e t h a t s h o w n i n T a b l e 1 . T h e a l t e r n a t i v e a c t i o n s t h a t w e are t r y i n g
t o d e c i d e a m o n g a r e s h o w n i n t h e r o w s o f t h e t a b l e a n d t h e u n c e r t a i n states o f
nature w h i c h affect the o u t c o m e s of t h e s e actions are s h o w n as c o l u m n s . T h e values
of the various o u t c o m e s are indicated by the n u m b e r s in the cells.
T a b l e 1. V a l u e s of Activities in T w o Kinds of W e a t h e r
Windy Calm Row Minima
Sailing 10 -5 -5
Swimming -2 8 _2**
Tennis -3 4 -3
Filtering o u t Alternatives
W h a t e v e r strategy we d e c i d e to use in approaching decision problems, it is

wise to make a habit of determining if any of the alternatives is dominated by any
other alternative a n d c o u l d therefore be e l i m i n a t e d . F r o m T a b l e 1 we can s e e that
s w i m m i n g d o m i n a t e s t e n n i s b e c a u s e for e v e r y state o f n a t u r e t h e o u t c o m e for
s w i m m i n g i s b e t t e r t h a n t h e o u t c o m e for t e n n i s .
FOUR STRATEGIES
W e w i l l d e s c r i b e f o u r s t r a t e g i e s for m a k i n g d e c i s i o n s u n d e r u n c e r t a i n t y : t h e
mini-max strategy, the maxi-max strategy, the H u r w i c z strategy, and the mini-max
regret strategy. We w i l l use e a c h of these strategies to arrive at a decision in the
sailing-swimming dilemma.
The Mini-max Strategy
T h i s s t r a t e g y , first d e s c r i b e d b y v o n N e u m a n n ( s e e V o n N e u m a n n a n d M o r g e r i -
stern, 1944), is a v e r y c o n s e r v a t i v e , p e s s i m i s t i c strategy w h i c h a s s u m e s that what-
ever action we choose, nature is against us and w i l l cause the worst possible
outcome. T h u s , if we d e c i d e to go sailing, the strategy m a k e s the g l o o m y assump-
tion that the w i n d s w i l l b e c a l m . O n the other hand, i f w e d e c i d e t o g o s w i m m i n g ,
then the strategy a s s u m e s that the w e a t h e r w i l l b e w i n d y . T h e v a l u e s o f t h e s e w o r s t
o u t c o m e s , the r o w m i n i m a , are s h o w n in the right-hand c o l u m n of T a b l e 1.
* W h e n rolling two dice, the outcomes from 2 through 12 are not equally likely. If you don't
know how to find out what the probabilities are, consult the A p p e n d i x on Probabilities.
**Best choice.
T h e m i n i - m a x s t r a t e g y c a l l s for c h o o s i n g t h e a c t i o n t h a t g i v e s u s t h e b e s t
(largest) o f t h e s e m i n i m a . T h a t i s , i t c h o o s e s t h e a c t i o n w h o s e w o r s t p o s s i b l e o u t -
c o m e is not as b a d as the worst possible outcomes of the other actions. T h u s , since
t h e w o r s t p o s s i b l e o u t c o m e for s a i l i n g i s — 5 a n d t h e w o r s t p o s s i b l e o u t c o m e for
s w i m m i n g i s - 2 , the mini-max strategy chooses s w i m m i n g . ( R e m e m b e r , tennis w a s
eliminated because it was dominated by swimming.)
T h e mini-max strategy has the n i c e property that it guarantees an o u t c o m e
w h i c h i s n o w o r s e t h a n t h e m i n i m u m v a l u e for t h e a c t i o n . T h e o u t c o m e m a y b e
b e t t e r than that m i n i m u m , b u t it w i l l certainly be no w o r s e . H o w e v e r , this strategy,
w h i c h focuses on p r e v e n t i n g disaster, has the unfortunate p r o p e r t y that it m a y
e l i m i n a t e the b e s t o u t c o m e s from consideration.
The Maxi-max Strategy
A more adventurous approach to making decisions is to use the maxi-max

strategy. T h i s is an optimistic strategy w h i c h a s s u m e s that nature w i l l cooperate
w i t h u s t o p r o v i d e t h e b e s t p o s s i b l e o u t c o m e for t h e a c t i o n w e c h o o s e . T h e v a l u e s
of these b e s t p o s s i b l e o u t c o m e s , the row maxima, are s h o w n in the right-hand
c o l u m n of T a b l e 2. T h e maxi-max strategy chooses the action w h i c h y i e l d s the best
of the b e s t p o s s i b l e o u t c o m e s . In this case, it c h o o s e s sailing. T h i s strategy has the
nice property of guaranteeing you a chance of obtaining the best possible outcome.
H o w e v e r , it does not d e f e n d y o u against the possibility that y o u m a y obtain the
worst p o s s i b l e o u t c o m e , as d o e s the mini-max strategy.
T a b l e 2. V a l u e s of T w o Activities in T w o Kinds of W e a t h e r
Windy Calm Row Maxima
Sailing 10 -5 10*
Swimming -2 8 8
The H u r w i c z Strategy
T h i s strategy ( H u r w i c z , 1953) allows a c o m p r o m i s e — d e p e n d i n g on h o w opti-

mistic y o u f e e l — b e t w e e n the v e r y pessimistic mini-max strategy and the v e r y
optimistic maxi-max strategy. To use the H u r w i c z strategy, select a v a l u e b e t w e e n
0 a n d 1 for t h e c o e f f i c i e n t o f o p t i m i s m , A . L o w v a l u e s o f A , s u c h a s 0.1 o r 0.2, are
pessimistic a n d reflect a b e l i e f that b a d things are m o r e l i k e l y to h a p p e n . H i g h
v a l u e s , s u c h a s 0.8 o r 0.9, a r e o p t i m i s t i c . L e t ' s a s s u m e t h a t w e a r e b e i n g s l i g h t l y
p e s s i m i s t i c a n d c h o o s e A = 0.4. F i n d both t h e r o w m i n i m a a n d t h e r o w m a x i m a a s
shown in T a b l e 3.
T a b l e 3 . C o m p u t a t i o n s for the H u r w i c z Strategy
Weighted Min.
Windy Calm R o w Max. Row Min. & Max.
Sailing 10 -5 10 -5 1
Swimming -2 8 8 -2 2*
For each row we compute
A ( M a x . ) + (1 - A ) M i n .
*Best choice.
T h u s for s a i l i n g w e g e t
.4(10) + .6(-5)
= 4 - 3
= 1.0
For swimming we get
.4(8) + . 6 ( - 2 )
= 3.2 - 1.2
= 2.0
N o w choose the activity w h i c h yields the maximum of these c o m p u t e d quantities.

In this case, the c h o i c e is s w i m m i n g . N o t i c e that w h e n A is z e r o , the H u r w i c z
strategy is the s a m e as the mini-max strategy; w h e n A is 1, the H u r w i c z strategy is
the same as the maxi-max strategy.
Another Example
T h r e e b r o t h e r s — M a n n y , M o e , a n d J a c k — o w n a b a k e r y . S i n c e t h e b a k e r y has
b e e n m a k i n g a profit, t h e brothers d e c i d e to i n v e s t their surplus. F o u r i n v e s t m e n t
possibilities occur to them:
1. E x p a n d i n g facilities to increase bread production

2. A d d i n g a l i n e of pastries
3. I n v e s t i n g in the stock market
4. Starting a b r e a d d e l i v e r y service.
T h e brothers r e c o g n i z e that the e x p e c t e d return on their i n v e s t m e n t w i l l d e p e n d on

t h e state o f t h e e c o n o m y . T a b l e 4 s u m m a r i z e s t h e i r e s t i m a t e s o f t h e p e r c e n t r e t u r n
t o b e e x p e c t e d for e a c h a l t e r n a t i v e u n d e r v a r i o u s s t a t e s o f t h e e c o n o m y .
T a b l e 4. P e r c e n t Return on Four Investments in T h r e e States of t h e Economy
Better Same Worse Max. Min. Hurwicz
More bread 20 10 2 20 2 11*

Pastries 30 12 -10 30* -10 10
Stocks 8 6 4 8 4* 6
Delivery 10 4 -20
T h e brothers can agree to eliminate the delivery service alternative since it is

dominated by t w o of the other alternatives. H o w e v e r , they can't agree on w h i c h of
the r e m a i n i n g t h r e e alternatives i s b e s t b e c a u s e M a n n y i s v e r y c o n s e r v a t i v e , Jack
is w i l d l y optimistic, a n d M o e is a little of each. S i n c e M a n n y is c o n s e r v a t i v e , he
a p p l i e s t h e m i n i - m a x s t r a t e g y a n d d e c i d e s t h a t t h e safe a n d s a n e t h i n g t o d o i s t o
invest in stocks. Jack, w i t h visions of a giant industry d a n c i n g in his h e a d , a p p l i e s
the maxi-max strategy a n d d e c i d e s that m a k i n g pastries is the route to w e a l t h and
p o w e r . M o e , w h o s e o p t i m i s m c o e f f i c i e n t i s 0.5, a p p l i e s t h e H u r w i c z s t r a t e g y a n d
decides that their best option is to increase bread production.
Difficulties w i t h Expected V a l u e s
While maximizing expected values seems to be a very reasonable w a y to make

d e c i s i o n s i n m a n y c a s e s , t h e r e are s o m e s i t u a t i o n s i n w h i c h i t y i e l d s a n s w e r s t h a t
v i o l a t e o u r i n t u i t i o n s , a n s w e r s t h a t j u s t s e e m w r o n g . F o r e x a m p l e , s u p p o s e that y o u
h a d the opportunity t o c h o o s e b e t w e e n t h e f o l l o w i n g offers: e i t h e r y o u w i l l r e c e i v e
o n e m i l l i o n d o l l a r s for c e r t a i n or, d e p e n d i n g o n t h e f l i p o f a fair c o i n , y o u w i l l
*Best choice.
r e c e i v e four m i l l i o n dollars or nothing. In this situation, I w o u l d m u c h prefer to take

t h e offer o f o n e m i l l i o n d o l l a r s for c e r t a i n e v e n t h o u g h t h e e x p e c t e d v a l u e o f t h e
o t h e r offer i s t w i c e a s g r e a t (the r e a d e r s h o u l d c h e c k t h e d i f f e r e n c e i n e x p e c t e d
v a l u e , if it isn't clear.) M a n y others h a v e indicated that t h e y w o u l d m a k e the same
c h o i c e I h a v e m a d e in this hypothetical situation.
L e t ' s c o n s i d e r a m o r e p r a c t i c a l sort o f d e c i s i o n — w h e t h e r o r n o t t o b u y i n s u r -
a n c e . N o w , w e all k n o w that insurance c o m p a n i e s m a k e m o n e y . T h e e x p e c t e d
v a l u e o f a n i n s u r a n c e p o l i c y , t h e n , i s p o s i t i v e for t h e i n s u r a n c e c o m p a n y , b u t
n e g a t i v e for t h e i n s u r e d p e r s o n . Y e t m a n y p e o p l e , p e r h a p s m o s t , c h o o s e t o b u y
i n s u r a n c e , and that d e c i s i o n can't be r e g a r d e d as an error. P e o p l e are w i l l i n g to
accept a small but certain l o s s — t h e p a y m e n t of the insurance p r e m i u m — t o avoid
t h e risk o f a v e r y l a r g e l o s s d u e t o a c c i d e n t o r d e a t h , e v e n t h o u g h t h e e x p e c t e d v a l u e
of the insurance policy is negative.
Finally, let's c o n s i d e r the p r o b l e m o f lotteries: H e r e again, w e k n o w that
people w h o run them do so to earn money. T h o u g h the e x p e c t e d value of b u y i n g
a l o t t e r y t i c k e t i s n e g a t i v e , m a n y p e o p l e b u y t h e m w e e k after w e e k .
W h y d o e s t h e e x p e c t e d v a l u e t e c h n i q u e fail i n t h e s e c a s e s ? E x p e c t e d v a l u e s
are averages o f v a l u e s . T h e y are v e r y a p p r o p r i a t e w h e n w e are t r y i n g t o b a l a n c e
values that are c l o s e together, e.g., the c h a n c e of l o s i n g five dollars versus the
c h a n c e o f w i n n i n g t e n . A v e r a g e s are m u c h l e s s a p p r o p r i a t e , t h o u g h , w h e n w e
b a l a n c e v a l u e s t h a t are v e r y d i f f e r e n t , s u c h a s t h e c o s t o f a m o d e s t i n s u r a n c e
p a y m e n t v e r s u s t h e risk of b e i n g i m p o v e r i s h e d by a serious car a c c i d e n t , or the
dollar price of a lottery ticket versus a prize w h i c h w o u l d a l l o w us to quit our dull
old job and m o v e to Tahiti.
In the four-million-dollar gamble, you w e r e asked to balance the chance of
nothing versus the certainty of a fortune. M o s t choose the fortune. But suppose y o u
w e r e g u a r a n t e e d that the g a m b l e w o u l d be offered to y o u 20 t i m e s in a row. In this
c a s e , m o s t p e o p l e s w i t c h b a c k t o m a x i m i z i n g e x p e c t e d v a l u e s a n d g o for t h e f o u r
m i l l i o n d o l l a r s e a c h t i m e . W h y ? B e c a u s e w i t h 2 0 c h a n c e s , t h e r i s k o f b e i n g left w i t h
nothing practically goes a w a y — a b s o r b e d by the law of large numbers. N o w the
c h o i c e i s b e t w e e n two l i f e - c h a n g i n g a l t e r n a t i v e s a n d t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e m
is subjectively m u c h smaller than the difference b e t w e e n one million and zero.
A f t e r a l l , i f i t i s h a r d for u s t o i m a g i n e w h a t i t w o u l d b e l i k e t o h a v e a m i l l i o n , i t i s
e v e n harder t o i m a g i n e the difference b e t w e e n o n e m i l l i o n a n d four million.
T h e decision strategy d e s c r i b e d in the next section m a y be better d e s i g n e d
t h a n m a x i m i z i n g e x p e c t e d v a l u e t o h a n d l e d e c i s i o n s o f t h i s sort.
Minimizing M a x i m u m Regret
A d e c i s i o n p r o c e d u r e w h i c h w o r k s v e r y w e l l for t h o s e c a s e s i n w h i c h e x p e c t e d
v a l u e fails i s t h e s t r a t e g y o f m i n i m i z i n g m a x i m u m r e g r e t ( M M R ) . H e r e r e g r e t m e a n s
pretty m u c h w h a t y o u w o u l d e x p e c t . I m a g i n e that y o u h a v e d e c i d e d t o g o sailing
a n d t h a t t h e w i n d i s c a l m . T h e r e y o u are a t s e a — h o t , s w e a t y , a n d r e g r e t t i n g t h a t y o u
didn't go s w i m m i n g . We can take the difference b e t w e e n the value of the outcome
you actually obtained and the m a x i m u m value you could have obtained if y o u had
c h o s e n a different alternative as a m e a s u r e of regret. We can form a regret matrix
for t h e s a i l i n g - s w i m m i n g d e c i s i o n b y c o m p u t i n g r e g r e t for e a c h p o s s i b l e o u t c o m e ,
a s s h o w n i n T a b l e 5 . T h e m a x i m u m r e g r e t for e a c h a c t i o n i s s h o w n i n t h e r i g h t - h a n d
c o l u m n . I f w e are t o m i n i m i z e m a x i m u m r e g r e t i n t h i s c a s e , w e m u s t c h o o s e
s w i m m i n g . T a b l e 6 s h o w s t h e r e g r e t m a t r i x for t h e b a k e r y p r o b l e m . I n c r e a s i n g
bread production is the action w h i c h m i n i m i z e s m a x i m u m regret.
T h e M M R strategy can b e applied t o t w o problems w h i c h presented some
d i f f i c u l t i e s for t h e e x p e c t e d v a l u e s t r a t e g y . T h e s e a r e t h e I n s u r a n c e a n d t h e L o t t e r y
p r o b l e m s . T a b l e 7 s h o w s t h e p a y o f f a n d r e g r e t m a t r i c e s for a n A u t o I n s u r a n c e
Table 5. Payoff and Regret M a t r i c e s for the Sailing-Swimming Problem
Payoff Matrix Regret Matrix
Windy Calm Windy Calm Maximum Regret
Sailing 10 -5 0 13 13
Swimming -2 8 12 0 12*
T a b l e 6. Payoff and Regret Matrices for the Bakery Problem
Economy Economy
Maximum
Better Same Worse Better Same Worse Regret
Bread 20 10 2 10 2 2 10*
Pastries 30 12 -10 0 0 14 14
Stocks 8 6 4 22 6 0 22
T a b l e 7. Payoff and Regret Matrices for an A u t o Insurance Problem
Maximum
No Accident Accident No Accident Accident Regret
Insure -5 -5 5 0 5*
Don't Insure 0 -100 0 95 95
T a b l e 8. Payoff and Regret Matrices for the Lottery Problem
State of W o r l d State of W o r l d
Lose Win Lose Win Maximum Regret
Bet -10 100 10 0 10*

Don't Bet 0 0 0 100 100
P r o b l e m , a n d T a b l e 8 for t h e L o t t e r y P r o b l e m . U s i n g t h e M M R s t r a t e g y w e w o u l d
d e c i d e b o t h to b u y insurance and to b e t on the lottery.
Exercises
U s e t h e H u r w i c z s t r a t e g y w i t h A v a l u e s o f 0.0, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, a n d 1.0, a n d

m i n i - m a x r e g r e t t o f i n d t h e b e s t a l t e r n a t i v e s for e a c h o f t h e f o l l o w i n g p a y o f f m a -
trices:
*Best choice.
1. State of Nature
JUDGMENTAL PROBABILITIES
W e h a v e m a d e a sharp distinction b e t w e e n d e c i s i o n s u n d e r risk, i n w h i c h w e

can c o m p u t e probabilities, and decisions u n d e r uncertainty, in w h i c h we cannot.
Actually there is a broad range of cases b e t w e e n these t w o extremes in w h i c h , while
we can't calculate probabilities precisely, we can estimate them with varying de-
grees of accuracy. We will call these probability estimates "judgmental probabili-
ties."
The A c c u r a c y of Judgmental Probabilities
P e o p l e can be quite good at making probability estimates in certain simple

situations. F o r e x a m p l e , i n a n e x p e r i m e n t b y R o b i n s o n (1964) w h e r e p e o p l e w e r e
e x p o s e d to a s e q u e n c e of lights w h i c h flashed on the left a n d the right, t h e y w e r e
v e r y a c c u r a t e i n e s t i m a t i n g t h e p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t a f l a s h w o u l d b e o n t h e left o r t h e
right. A b o u t two-thirds of t h e subjects' j u d g m e n t s fell w i t h i n ± . 10 of the true
proportions. Further, g i v e n long experience, p e o p l e can m a k e good probability
estimates e v e n in c o m p l e x situations. Peterson et al (1972) and M u r p h y and
W i n k l e r (1974) s h o w e d that e x p e r i e n c e d m e t e o r o l o g i s t s w e r e v e r y g o o d a t estimat-
i n g t h e p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t t h e t e m p e r a t u r e w o u l d fall w i t h i n a s p e c i f i e d r a n g e .
W h i l e p e o p l e in the situations d e s c r i b e d a b o v e w e r e v e r y accurate in estimat-
i n g p r o b a b i l i t i e s , w e s h o u l d e m p h a s i z e t h a t p e o p l e ' s p r o b a b i l i t y e s t i m a t e s are
n o t u n i v e r s a l l y g o o d . T h e i r s u c c e s s d e p e n d s o n h a v i n g a p p r o p r i a t e infor-
mation—obtained either through immediate perception or long experience. When
p e o p l e are a s k e d to m a k e j u d g m e n t s a b o u t topics in w h i c h t h e y are not expert, they
m a y do v e r y poorly. F o r e x a m p l e , A l p e r t a n d Raiffa (1969) a s k e d subjects questions
o f t h e f o l l o w i n g k i n d : " H o w m a n y f o r e i g n cars w e r e i m p o r t e d i n t o t h e U n i t e d
States in 1968?
a. M a k e a h i g h estimate s u c h that y o u feel there is o n l y a o n e p e r c e n t probabil-
ity t h e t r u e a n s w e r w o u l d e x c e e d y o u r e s t i m a t e .
b. M a k e a l o w estimate s u c h that y o u feel there is o n l y a o n e p e r c e n t proba-

b i l i t y t h a t t h e t r u e a n s w e r w o u l d b e b e l o w this e s t i m a t e . "
T h e y f o u n d that in 40 to 50 p e r c e n t of c a s e s , the true a n s w e r fell o u t s i d e of the r a n g e
o f v a l u e s s p e c i f i e d b y t h e s u b j e c t . I n short, p e o p l e w e r e t e r r i b l e a t m a k i n g t h e s e
judgments.
G a m b l e r ' s Fallacy
E v e n i n s i m p l e s i t u a t i o n s , t h o u g h , p e o p l e are s u b j e c t t o s y s t e m a t i c errors i n
e s t i m a t i n g p r o b a b i l i t i e s . R e c e n t l y a local sports c o m m e n t a t o r a r g u e d that the Oak-
land Raiders w e r e especially likely to w i n the u p c o m i n g S u p e r b o w l g a m e because
o f " t h e l a w o f a v e r a g e s . " H e e m p h a s i z e d r e p e a t e d l y a n d w i t h c o n s i d e r a b l e assur-
ance that since t h e y had lost a string of S u p e r b o w l g a m e s in the recent past, it w a s ,
by the l a w of a v e r a g e s , their turn to w i n . M a n y b e l i e v e that this l a w of a v e r a g e s is
a s t a t i s t i c a l t r u t h . I n fact, t h i s s o - c a l l e d l a w i s a v e r y c o m m o n i l l u s i o n — s o c o m m o n
that statisticians h a v e n a m e d it the " G a m b l e r ' s F a l l a c y . "
L e t ' s t a k e a v e r y c l e a r c a s e . S u p p o s e w e h a v e a fair c o i n — t h a t is, a c o i n w i t h
a 0.5 p r o b a b i l i t y o f c o m i n g u p h e a d s a n d a 0.5 p r o b a b i l i t y o f c o m i n g u p tails. I n a
r e a s o n a b l e m o o d , w h i c h i s m o s t o f t h e t i m e , w e w o u l d all a g r e e that t h e c o i n h a s
n o m e m o r y a t a l l . I t i s j u s t a m e t a l d i s k . I f w e c o u l d i m a g i n e s o m e w a y t o a s k it, " O n
y o u r l a s t f l i p , d i d y o u c o m e u p h e a d s o r t a i l s ? " w e w o u l d h a v e t o b e l i e v e its a n s w e r
w o u l d b e , " W h a t flip? I don't r e m e m b e r any flip!!" Y e t strange things h a p p e n to us
w h e n w e a c t u a l l y b e g i n t o f l i p t h e c o i n . I m a g i n e that t h e first t w o f l i p s are h e a d s ,
a n d t h e n t h e third flip is a h e a d , too. We b e g i n to s u s p e c t that the fourth flip w i l l
be a tail, b u t n o — a n o t h e r h e a d ! W h a t ' s h a p p e n i n g ? ! S u r e l y the next flip w i l l be a
tail, o r a t l e a s t w e f e e l t h a t t h e p r o b a b i l i t y i s v e r y h i g h . A f t e r a l l , a c c o r d i n g t o t h e
l a w o f a v e r a g e s it's t i m e for a tail t o t u r n u p . W e h a v e f o r g o t t e n , o f c o u r s e , that t h e
c o i n h a s n o m e m o r y . I t k n o w s n o t h i n g o f t h e p a s t a n d i s b e h a v i n g o n t h e fifth f l i p
j u s t a s i t d i d o n t h e first. I n b o t h c a s e s , t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f a tail i s 0.5. T o a v o i d t h e
g a m b l e r ' s fallacy, w e s h o u l d forget the past, j u s t a s the c o i n d o e s , a n d treat e a c h f l i p
a s a n e v e n t i n d e p e n d e n t o f all p r e v i o u s f l i p s .
L i n d s a y a n d N o r m a n (1972) point out that y o u can use the g a m b l e r ' s fallacy to
earn money:
In horse racing, this psychological tendency [the gambler's fallacy] suggests that you
ought to b e t on the favorite w h e n e v e r favorites have b e e n consistently w i n n i n g in
the previous few races. T h e assumption is that the other betters will operate accord-
ing to the gambler's fallacy: T h e y w i l l assume it less and less likely that yet another
favorite will win. This tendency w o u l d make the odds deviate from the objective
probabilities and thus provides the opportunity for a good bet. (p. 548)
THE DIFFICULTY OF REVISING AN O P I N I O N
A n o t h e r d i f f i c u l t y i n u s i n g p r o b a b i l i t i e s a r i s e s b e c a u s e p e o p l e are o f t e n n o t
very effective in using n e w information to modify old opinions. T h i s ineffective-
ness is illustrated clearly in a study by Phillips and E d w a r d s (1966).
Phillips and E d w a r d s s h o w e d their subjects a s e q u e n c e of red and w h i t e poker
chips d r a w n from a b a g . T h e subjects k n e w that the b a g c o n t a i n e d either 70 red and
3 0 w h i t e c h i p s , o r 3 0 r e d a n d 7 0 w h i t e c h i p s . F u r t h e r , t h e y w e r e t o l d that t h e
p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t t h e b a g w a s p r e d o m i n a n t l y r e d w a s e q u a l t o t h e p r o b a b i l i t y that i t
w a s p r e d o m i n a n t l y w h i t e . T h e subjects' task w a s to m a k e an estimate of the proba-
b i l i t y t h a t t h e b a g w a s p r e d o m i n a n t l y r e d o r p r e d o m i n a n t l y w h i t e , after s e e i n g e a c h
s u c c e s s i v e c h i p . L e t ' s a s s u m e t h a t t h e c h i p s are b e i n g d r a w n f r o m a b a g o f m o s t l y
red chips. Before s e e i n g any chips, the subject estimates that the probability is
a b o u t 0.50 t h a t t h e b a g c o n t a i n s m o s t l y r e d c h i p s . T y p i c a l l y , a s h e s e e s m o r e a n d
m o r e c h i p s , he increases his estimate of the probability that the b a g is mostly red.
H o w e v e r , h e d o e s n ' t i n c r e a s e i t n e a r l y a s fast a s h e o u g h t t o o n t h e b a s i s o f t h e
e v i d e n c e . E d w a r d s e s t i m a t e s that s u b j e c t s g e t b e t w e e n o n e - h a l f a n d one-fifth o f t h e
a v a i l a b l e information from e a c h c h i p . W h a t d o e s this m e a n in terms of accuracy of
p r o b a b i l i t y e s t i m a t e s ? I n t h i s s i t u a t i o n , i f s u b j e c t s d r e w e i g h t r e d c h i p s a n d four
w h i t e o n e s , t h e y should e s t i m a t e t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f a m o s t l y r e d b a g a t 0.964. I n fact,
R a i f f a ( 1 9 6 8 ) f o u n d t h a t h i s statistics s t u d e n t s c l u s t e r e d t h e i r e s t i m a t e s a r o u n d
0 . 7 0 — n e a r l y 3 0 p e r c e n t too l o w .
P e o p l e a r e n ' t a l w a y s i n e f f e c t i v e i n u s i n g n e w i n f o r m a t i o n ( s e e , for e x a m p l e ,
E d w a r d s , 1 9 6 8 ) . H o w e v e r , t h e r e are e n o u g h s i t u a t i o n s i n w h i c h t h e y are i n e f f e c t i v e
t o s u g g e s t t h a t s o m e a i d s for r e v i s i n g j u d g m e n t s c o u l d b e v e r y h e l p f u l t o d e c i s i o n
makers. T h e aid w h i c h we will suggest is Bayes' T h e o r e m .
Bayes' T h e o r e m *
B a y e s ' T h e o r e m i s a p r o c e d u r e for r e v i s i n g o p i n i o n s o n t h e b a s i s o f n e w e v i -
d e n c e . S u p p o s e t h a t w e h o l d s o m e o p i n i o n s ( h y p o t h e s e s ) a b o u t t h e state o f t h e
w o r l d . F o r e x a m p l e , i f w e w e r e m e d i c a l researchers w e m i g h t b e l i e v e that there i s
a 75 p e r c e n t c h a n c e that a certain d i s e a s e is c a u s e d by organism A ( H y p o t h e s i s 1)
a n d a 2 5 p e r c e n t c h a n c e t h a t i t i s n o t ( H y p o t h e s i s 2). N e x t , w e f i n d s o m e n e w
e v i d e n c e a b o u t our h y p o t h e s e s . F o r e x a m p l e , we m i g h t r e c e i v e a report that a case
of the disease has b e e n o b s e r v e d w h i c h does not appear to i n v o l v e organism A. We
n o w w a n t to revise our opinions on the basis of the n e w e v i d e n c e . In particular, we
want to reduce the probability of Hypothesis 1 and increase the probability of
H y p o t h e s i s 2.
T o use B a y e s ' T h e o r e m t o d o this, w e n e e d one more set o f probabilities. F o r
e a c h h y p o t h e s i s , w e n e e d t o k n o w the probability that the n e w e v i d e n c e w o u l d
h a v e b e e n o b t a i n e d i f that h y p o t h e s i s w e r e true. I n the m e d i c a l r e s e a r c h e x a m p l e ,
we will n e e d to k n o w two probabilities: we will n e e d to k n o w the probability of
o b s e r v i n g a case of the d i s e a s e w i t h o u t o b s e r v i n g o r g a n i s m A — f i r s t , a s s u m i n g that
H y p o t h e s i s 1 is true, and s e c o n d , a s s u m i n g that H y p o t h e s i s 2 is true. We w i l l call
these probabilities P ( E | H 1 ) and P(E|H2), w h i c h should be read, "the probability
of the e v i d e n c e g i v e n that HI is t r u e , " and, " t h e probability of the e v i d e n c e g i v e n
that H 2 i s t r u e . " ( T h e v e r t i c a l b a r i s r e a d a s " g i v e n " o r " g i v e n t h a t . " )
A c c o r d i n g to B a y e s ' T h e o r e m , the n e w probability we ought to assign to HI
g i v e n the n e w e v i d e n c e is
P(E|H1) x P(H1)
P(H1|E) =
P(E|H1) x P(H1) + P(E|H2) x P(H2)
w h e r e P ( H 1 ) a n d P ( H 2 ) are o u r o r i g i n a l e s t i m a t e s o f t h e p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f H I a n d H 2 .
N o w , in the m e d i c a l research e x a m p l e , a s s u m e that there is a small probability,
say, .05, t h a t t h e d i s e a s e c o u l d b e o b s e r v e d w i t h o u t f i n d i n g t r a c e s o f o r g a n i s m A
e v e n i f H y p o t h e s i s 1 i s t r u e . T h a t is, P ( E | H 1 ) = .05. A s s u m e f u r t h e r t h a t t h e r e i s a
l a r g e p r o b a b i l i t y , s a y , 0.90, t h a t t h e d i s e a s e c o u l d b e o b s e r v e d w i t h o u t f i n d i n g
o r g a n i s m A i f H y p o t h e s i s 2 i s t r u e , t h a t is, P ( E | H 2 ) = .90. B y B a y e s ' T h e o r e m , o u r
n e w v a l u e for t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f H I i s
(.05) (.75)
P(Hl|E) =
(.05) (.75) + (.90) (.25)
.0375
.0375 + .225
= 0.143
* M a n y students find the sections on Bayes' T h e o r e m difficult. T h e y may be skipped

without spoiling the continuity of the discussion.
I n other w o r d s , w h e n w e take the n e w e v i d e n c e into account, our 7 5 p e r c e n t

confidence in Hypothesis 1 should be r e d u c e d drastically to 14 percent according
to Bayes' Theorem.
W h y use such a c o m p l e x procedure to make a simple decision? T h e reason is
that a s the P h i l l i p s a n d E d w a r d s study s h o w e d , p e o p l e don't m a k e v e r y good u s e
o f n e w i n f o r m a t i o n t o m o d i f y t h e i r p r e v i o u s o p i n i o n s — t h e y are v e r y c o n s e r v a t i v e
a b o u t c h a n g i n g t h e i r m i n d s . C l e a r l y , p e o p l e n e e d s o m e h e l p i f t h e y are t o m a k e
adequate use of n e w information. T h e computations i n v o l v e d in using B a y e s ' T h e o -
rem, w h i l e t h e y w o u l d be a n u i s a n c e in m a k i n g a trivial d e c i s i o n , are really w e l l
w o r t h the effort if t h e d e c i s i o n is an important o n e .
The Fido Caper
S u p p o s e t h a t y o u l e f t y o u r d o g F i d o a t h o m e t o g u a r d y o u r h o u s e s o that
burglars w o u l d not b r e a k in a n d steal the 1 0 - p o u n d roast that is defrosting on the
c o u n t e r . W h e n y o u g e t b a c k t h e l o c k s are all i n g o o d o r d e r , s o y o u k n o w t h a t n o
burglar has e n t e r e d . H o w e v e r , the roast is g o n e . N e e d l e s s to say, F i d o is a p r i m e
suspect.
On the basis of past experience, t w o sessions w i t h the dog psychiatrist, and a
c e r t a i n shifty l o o k i n h i s e y e , y o u j u d g e t h e p r o b a b i l i t y i s 0.95 t h a t F i d o d i d it.
H o w e v e r , b e f o r e forcing F i d o t o role p l a y a s the m i s s i n g roast, y o u d e c i d e t o c o l l e c t
o n e f u r t h e r p i e c e o f e v i d e n c e . Y o u p r e p a r e h i s o r d i n a r y d i n n e r a n d offer i t t o h i m .
T o y o u r s u r p r i s e , h e g o b b l e s i t u p t o t h e last c r u m b . H a r d l y w h a t y o u w o u l d e x p e c t
of t h e t h i e f w h o j u s t m a d e a 1 0 - p o u n d roast disappear. Y o u e s t i m a t e that the proba-
b i l i t y t h a t F i d o w o u l d d o t h i s i f h e h a d i n fact e a t e n t h e r o a s t i s o n l y 0.02. N o r m a l l y ,
t h o u g h , h e h a s a g o o d a p p e t i t e a n d e a t s h i s d i n n e r w i t h a p r o b a b i l i t y o f 0.99. H o w
are y o u t o r e v i s e y o u r e a r l i e r s u s p i c i o n s g i v e n t h e e v i d e n c e o f t h e r e a d i l y e a t e n
dinner? Clearly, Bayes' T h e o r e m can come to the rescue as follows: T h e probability
that F i d o i s g u i l t y g i v e n t h a t h e j u s t a t e h i s d i n n e r i s
Dealing With C h a n c e in D e c i s i o n Making 175
0.0190 + 0.0495
= 0.0190
~ 0.0685
= .28
T h i n g s l o o k e d v e r y b a d for F i d o b e f o r e t h e d i n n e r e x p e r i m e n t . H o w e v e r , w i t h
the aid of B a y e s ' T h e o r e m , we w e r e able to take the results of the d i n n e r experi-
m e n t into account and c o n c l u d e that F i d o w a s p r o b a b l y innocent. A n y o n e w h o
loves dogs can see the value of Bayes' Theorem.
The Antique Problem
O n e d a y w a l k i n g past an antique store, y o u spot w h a t y o u are certain, w e l l , 80
p e r c e n t certain, is an antique chair w o r t h about $100. On the other hand, y o u
r e c o g n i z e that there is a 20 p e r c e n t c h a n c e that it is w o r t h l e s s . Y o u k n o w that the
o w n e r of the s h o p is r e a s o n a b l y c o m p e t e n t in d i s t i n g u i s h i n g a n t i q u e s from junk. If
i t i s a n a n t i q u e , t h e r e i s o n l y o n e c h a n c e i n 1 0 t h a t h e w i l l fail t o r e c o g n i z e it. O n
t h e o t h e r h a n d , i f i t i s j u n k , t h e r e i s a v e r y h i g h p r o b a b i l i t y , 0.98, t h a t h e w i l l
recognize it as junk.
Y o u e n t e r t h e s t o r e a n d s a y , " H o w m u c h for t h a t c h a i r ? " T h e o w n e r s a y s , " F i v e
dollars." C l e a r l y , he thinks it is j u n k . U s i n g this information, d e t e r m i n e
A. a n e w (Bayesian) estimate of the probability that the chair is an a n t i q u e , and
B. w h e t h e r y o u s h o u l d b u y it or not.
Answer t o A . H y p o t h e s i s H I i s t h a t t h e c h a i r i s a n a n t i q u e . H y p o t h e s i s H 2 i s
that t h e c h a i r i s j u n k . T h e n e w e v i d e n c e , E , i s t h a t t h e a n t i q u e d e a l e r t h i n k s it's
junk.
Y o u r i n i t i a l o p i n i o n s are
P ( H 1 ) = 0.8 a n d P ( H 2 ) = 0.2
T h e revised probability is
P(H1|E) - 0 1 0
* 0 8
°
T h e n e w e v i d e n c e , t h e n , s h o u l d r e d u c e y o u r c o n f i d e n c e that the chair i s a n

antique.
Answer to B: To buy or not to buy? N o w e v e n t h o u g h y o u a r e l e s s c o n f i d e n t

t h a t t h e c h a i r i s a n a n t i q u e , i t c o u l d still b e a g o o d b u y . T h a t i s , t h e risk m a y b e
w o r t h the cost. L e t ' s c o m p u t e the e x p e c t e d value of the purchase. If it is an antique
( P = 0.29), t h e n y o u g a i n $95 ($100 c h a i r m i n u s t h e $ 5 p u r c h a s e p r i c e ) . I f it's j u n k
( P = 0 . 7 1 ) , y o u l o s e $5. T h e e x p e c t e d v a l u e o f t h e p u r c h a s e , t h e n , i s
E V = (95) (.29) - (5) (.71)

= $27.55 - $3.55
= $24.00
I f y o u c a n s c r a p e t o g e t h e r t h e f i v e d o l l a r s , t h e n y o u o u g h t t o t a k e t h e risk.
H o w t o Understand B a y e s ' T h e o r e m
Just b e f o r e the d i n n e r e x p e r i m e n t there w e r e four p o s s i b l e o u t c o m e s w e w o u l d
i m a g i n e , as s h o w n in T a b l e 9. B e c a u s e t h e s e are the only possibilities, the proba-
bilities of t h e s e four alternatives sum to 1.
Table 9. Four Possible O u t c o m e s of the Dinner Experiment
Fido guilty and Fido innocent and

eats d i n n e r eats dinner
P = .0095 P = .0495 X = 0590
Fido guilty and Fido innocent and

doesn't eat dinner doesn't eat dinner
P = .9405 P = .0005 2 = .9410
2 = 1
Since F i d o did eat his dinner, the dinner e x p e r i m e n t eliminated t w o of these

four alternatives. T h e e l i m i n a t e d alternatives are the l o w e r t w o i n T a b l e 9 . S i n c e
o n e o r t h e o t h e r o f t h e r e m a i n i n g t w o a l t e r n a t i v e s must o c c u r , t h e p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f
these t w o a l t e r n a t i v e s m u s t n o w s u m t o 1 . T h a t is, t h e t w o a l t e r n a t i v e s w h o s e
p r o b a b i l i t i e s s u m m e d t o .0590 b e f o r e t h e d i n n e r e x p e r i m e n t m u s t s u m t o 1 after t h e
dinner experiment. T h e probabilities of these alternatives must be increased as a
result of the n e w e v i d e n c e . Bayes' T h e o r e m is just a w a y of increasing the probabil-
i t i e s s o t h a t t h e n e w v a l u e o f e a c h p r o b a b i l i t y i s p r o p o r t i o n a l t o its o r i g i n a l v a l u e .
Exercises
1. S u p p o s e F i d o had refused his dinner. First, guess the probability that F i d o w a s

the roast thief. N e x t c o m p u t e t h e p r o b a b i l i t y u s i n g B a y e s ' t h e o r e m .
2 . S u p p o s e t h a t a b a g h a s a 0.5 c h a n c e o f c o n t a i n i n g 7 0 g r e e n c h i p s a n d 3 0 w h i t e
c h i p s , a n d a 0.5 c h a n c e o f c o n t a i n i n g 7 0 w h i t e c h i p s a n d 3 0 g r e e n c h i p s . A g r e e n
c h i p is d r a w n from the b a g at random and then replaced. W h a t is the probability
n o w that the b a g is p r e d o m i n a n t l y g r e e n ?
3. A s e c o n d g r e e n c h i p is d r a w n at random. W h a t is the n e w probability that the b a g
is predominantly green?
DECISIONS UNDER CONFLICT
W h e n we play a g a m e against nature, as in the sailing-swimming decision, we

can v i e w the mini-max strategy as a conservative one, b e c a u s e we don't really
b e l i e v e t h a t n a t u r e i s t r y i n g t o a r r a n g e t h e w o r s t o u t c o m e s for u s . W h e n w e p l a y a
g a m e a g a i n s t a h u m a n o p p o n e n t , h o w e v e r , t h e m i n i - m a x s t r a t e g y i s n ' t a t all c o n s e r -
v a t i v e . W e know o u r o p p o n e n t i s a c t i v e l y t r y i n g t o d o u s in. T h e m i n i - m a x s t r a t e g y
i s t h e o n l y o n e w e w i l l u s e for a n a l y z i n g d e c i s i o n s u n d e r c o n f l i c t .
A Two-Person Zero-Sum G a m e
G i o v a n n i a n d H a n s , t h e o w n e r s o f a t o w n ' s o n l y t w o r e s t a u r a n t s , are n a t u r a l l y
i n c o m p e t i t i o n w i t h e a c h o t h e r . E a c h c a n afford t o try a n y o n e o f a s e t o f s t r a t e g i e s
t o attract c u s t o m e r s a w a y f r o m t h e o t h e r ( s e e T a b l e 10). F o r G i o v a n n i t h e r e i s G l ,
a free glass of red w i n e ; G 2 , waiters w h o sing V e r d i ; and G 3 , half-price pizza. For
H a n s , there i s H I , c h e a p b e e r ; H 2 , waiters w h o y o d e l ; H 3 , free sauerkraut; and H 4 ,
P u m p k i n S t r e u d e l N i g h t . T a b l e 1 0 , t h e p a y o f f m a t r i x for G i o v a n n i , s h o w s t h e
p e r c e n t o f t h e total m a r k e t t h a t G i o v a n n i c a n w i n f r o m H a n s w h e n e a c h c h o o s e s o n e
o f t h e a v a i l a b l e s t r a t e g i e s . P o s i t i v e v a l u e s are g o o d for G i o v a n n i , a n d n e g a t i v e
v a l u e s are g o o d for H a n s . W e a s s u m e t h a t w h a t G i o v a n n i g a i n s , H a n s l o s e s , a n d v i c e
v e r s a . T h a t is, t h e s u m o f G i o v a n n i ' s g a i n s (or l o s s e s ) a n d H a n s ' l o s s e s (or g a i n s ) i s

zero. S u c h a g a m e , in w h i c h the sum of gains and losses a d d e d up o v e r all players
is z e r o , is c a l l e d a zero-sum game.
N o t i c e i n T a b l e 1 0 that H a n s ' strategy H 4 , P u m p k i n S t r e u d e l N i g h t (which
h o l d s its o w n o n l y a g a i n s t s i n g i n g w a i t e r s ) i s d o m i n a t e d b y H I a n d H 3 , w h i c h h a v e
l o w e r s c o r e s ( b e t t e r for H a n s ) fqr e a c h o f G i o v a n n i ' s s t r a t e g i e s . H 4 i s t h e r e f o r e
d r o p p e d . T h e s t r a t e g i e s w h i c h r e m a i n after w e h a v e s c r e e n e d for d o m i n a n c e a r e
shown in Table 11.
Table 1 1 . Reduced Payoff Matrix
HI H2 H3 Row Min.
I n T a b l e 1 1 , t h e r o w m i n i m a a r e t h e v a l u e s o f t h e w o r s t o u t c o m e s (from G i o -
v a n n i ' s p o i n t o f v i e w ) for e a c h o f h i s s t r a t e g i e s . T h e c o l u m n m a x i m a are t h e v a l u e s
o f t h e w o r s t o u t c o m e s (from H a n s ' p o i n t o f v i e w ) for e a c h o f his s t r a t e g i e s . T h e
m i n i - m a x d e c i s i o n for G i o v a n n i i s G 3 , h a l f - p r i c e p i z z a , a n d for H a n s , H I , c h e a p
beer. If G i o v a n n i adopts strategy G 3 , he w i l l pick up at least one percent of the
m a r k e t a n d h e m a y g e t m o r e i f H a n s d e v i a t e s from h i s m i n i - m a x s t r a t e g y . I f H a n s
adopts strategy H I , he w i l l lose no more than one p e r c e n t of the market and he may
l o s e l e s s i f G i o v a n n i d e v i a t e s f r o m h i s m i n i - m a x s t r a t e g y . I n t h i s c a s e , i t i s b e s t for
e a c h participant to a d o p t a single p u r e strategy. G i o v a n n i s h o u l d a l w a y s use G 3 ,
a n d H a n s s h o u l d a l w a y s u s e H I . T h e r e are m a n y c a s e s , t h o u g h , i n w h i c h t h e
p a r t i c i p a n t s s h o u l d a d o p t mixed strategies. T h a t is, p a r t o f t h e t i m e t h e y s h o u l d t a k e
one action and part of the time another.
M i x e d or Pure Strategies?
T h e r e is a s i m p l e test to d e t e r m i n e w h e t h e r a p u r e or a m i x e d strategy is best.

I f t h e m a x i m u m o f t h e r o w m i n i m a (the m a x i - m i n ) e q u a l s t h e m i n i m u m o f t h e
c o l u m n m a x i m a (the mini-max), t h e n a p u r e strategy is best. In this situation, e a c h
p l a y e r d o e s b e s t p l a y i n g the mini-max strategy. If we play our mini-max strategy,
our o p p o n e n t s w i l l a l w a y s lose by d e v i a t i n g from their mini-max strategy. In the
same way, if our opponents play their mini-max strategies, we will always lose by
d e v i a t i n g f r o m o u r m i n i - m a x s t r a t e g y . I n t h e p a y o f f m a t r i x for G i o v a n n i a n d H a n s
(see T a b l e 11), the maxi-min and the mini-max both e q u a l 1. T h u s , pure strategies
are a p p r o p r i a t e for t h i s c a s e a n d t h e y g u a r a n t e e t h a t G i o v a n n i w i l l w i n a t l e a s t 1 (the
m a x i - m i n ) a n d t h a t H a n s w i l l l o s e n o m o r e t h a n 1 (the m i n i - m a x ) .
For the payoff matrix in T a b l e 12, the mini-max is 1 but the maxi-min is 0. In
this g a m e , A l e x s h o u l d gain n o l e s s t h a n 0 (the m a x i - m i n ) , a n d B e r t s h o u l d l o s e n o
m o r e than 1 (the mini-max). Just w h e r e t h e g a i n s a n d l o s s e s w i l l fall b e t w e e n t h e s e
values will depend on how Alex and Bert play. T h e mini-max decision procedure
Table 1 2 . Payoff Matrix in the Alex-Bert Conflict
Bert's Strategies _, ^
rayon
Bl B2 Row Min. Difference
a i
- 1 3
- - i
3-(-D=4
_A2 1 0 0* 1-0 =1
C o l u m n Max. 1* 3 2,-5
Payoff Difference 2 3
w e u s e d a b o v e w o u l d select pure strategies f o r e a c h p a r t i c i p a n t — A l t e r n a t i v e A 2 f o r

A l e x and A l t e r n a t i v e B l f o r Bert. B u t notice that t h e s e strategies don't h a v e the nice
properties that the strategies chosen for G i o v a n n i and Hans had. If Alex always
c h o o s e s A 2 , t h e n Bert is soon g o i n g to s w i t c h from Bl to B2 so as to lose less w i t h
e a c h trial. T o k e e p B e r t f r o m d o i n g t h i s , A l e x s h o u l d s o m e t i m e s u s e A l a n d s o c k
B e r t w i t h a l o s s o f 3 p o i n t s . T h a t is, A l e x s h o u l d u s e a m i x e d s t r a t e g y .
In u s i n g a m i x e d strategy, though, just h o w often s h o u l d A l e x play Al and h o w
often s h o u l d he p l a y A 2 ? T h e r e is a fairly s i m p l e p r o c e d u r e he c a n u s e to find the
b e s t p r o p o r t i o n s for t h e v a r i o u s s t r a t e g i e s . F i r s t , h e s h o u l d f i n d t h e m a g n i t u d e o f
t h e d i f f e r e n c e i n p a y o f f w i t h i n e a c h r o w o f t h e p a y o f f m a t r i x . T h e s e d i f f e r e n c e s are
4 for t h e first r o w , 1 for t h e s e c o n d , a n d t h e i r s u m i s 5 . U s i n g t h e s e n u m b e r s , A l e x
can n o w do the following calculations:
and c o n c l u d e that h e s h o u l d u s e Strategy A l one-fifth o f t h e t i m e a n d Strategy A 2

four-fifths o f t h e t i m e . I n t h e s a m e w a y , B e r t c a n u s e t h e d i f f e r e n c e s i n p a y o f f i n t h e
c o l u m n s to find the proportions in w h i c h he should mix his strategies. Bert cal-
culates as follows:
a n d c o n c l u d e s that h e s h o u l d u s e B l three-fifths o f t h e t i m e a n d B 2 two-fifths o f the

time.
E a c h p l a y e r s h o u l d c o n c e a l h i s i n t e n d e d a c t i o n o n e a c h trial s o t h a t h e d o e s n ' t
forewarn his o p p o n e n t of his i n t e n d e d m o v e . O n e w a y to do this is to let some
random process like the throw of a die d e t e r m i n e w h a t one w i l l do next.
I f e a c h p l a y e r p l a y s t h e o p t i m a l s t r a t e g y d e f i n e d b y t h e m e t h o d w e j u s t out-
l i n e d , t h e n t h e v a l u e o f t h e g a m e (the a m o u n t t h a t A l e x c a n e x p e c t t o w i n o r t h e
average per game) is easy to determine.
T h e probability that the p a y o f f i s - 1 i s j u s t the probability that A l e x plays A l
a n d B e r t p l a y s B l , t h a t i s , 1/5 x 3/5 = 3/25. M a k i n g t h e s e c a l c u l a t i o n s for all t h e c e l l s
of the payoff matrix we can find the e x p e c t e d v a l u e of the g a m e as follows:
3 6 12 15
= - — + — + — = — = 0.60
25 25 25 25
I n this c a s e , t h e v a l u e i s 0 . 6 — a v a l u e , a s w e w o u l d e x p e c t , b e t w e e n 0 , t h e r o w m a x ,
and 1, the column min.
An interesting feature of t h e s e strategies is that the v a l u e of the g a m e w i l l
remain the s a m e as l o n g as either of the p l a y e r s h o l d s to his optimal strategy.
A G U I D E FOR THE BEWILDERED DECISION MAKER
In this and the p r e v i o u s chapter, we h a v e d e s c r i b e d a n u m b e r of decision

p r o c e d u r e s a p p l i c a b l e in a variety of situations. F i g u r e 2, a d e c i s i o n tree, can h e l p
y o u find the d e c i s i o n p r o c e d u r e that is appropriate to a specific situation. By an-
swering the following questions, you can work through the decision tree:
1. Is this a d e c i s i o n u n d e r certainty?
2. D o e s it i n v o l v e costly search?
3. Is t h i s a d e c i s i o n u n d e r c o n f l i c t ?
4. C a n you estimate the relevant probabilities with reasonable accuracy?
5. D o e s the decision involve catastrophic outcomes?
Exercises
I d e n t i f y o p t i m a l s t r a t e g i e s for e a c h p l a y e r i n t h e f o l l o w i n g t w o - p e r s o n g a m e s .
REFERENCES
A l p e r t , M . , a n d Raiffa, H. A Progress Report on the Training of Probability Assess-

ors. U n p u b l i s h e d m a n u s c r i p t , H a r v a r d U n i v e r s i t y , 1 9 6 9 .
Edwards, W. "Conservatism in Human Information Processing." In Formal Repre-

sentation o f Human Judgment, e d i t e d by B. Kleinmuntz. N e w York: John W i l e y
& Sons, Inc., 17-52, 1968.
H u r w i c z , L . " W h a t H a s H a p p e n e d t o t h e T h e o r y o f G a m e s ? " American Economic

Review Supplement, 4 3 , 3 9 8 - 4 0 5 , 1 9 5 3 .
Lindsay, P.H., and Norman, D . L . Human Information Processing. N e w York: Aca-

d e m i c Press, Inc., 1972.
Murphy, A . H . , and Winkler, R.L. " C r e d i b l e Interval T e m p e r a t u r e Forecasting:

S o m e E x p e r i m e n t a l R e s u l t s . " Monthly Weather Review, 102, 784-794, 1974.
P e t e r s o n , C . R . , S n a p p e r , K.J., a n d M u r p h y , A . H . " C r e d i b l e I n t e r v a l T e m p e r a t u r e
F o r e c a s t s . " Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 5 3 , 9 6 6 - 9 7 0 , 1 9 7 2 .
Phillips, L.D., and E d w a r d s , W. "Conservatism in a Simple Probability Inference

T a s k . " Journal of Experimental Psychology, 7 2 , 3 4 6 - 3 5 7 , 1966.
NINE
COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS
S h o u l d saccharin b e b a n n e d ? S h o u l d pollution standards b e stricter? A r e nu-

clear p o w e r plants safe? S h o u l d e v e r y o n e b e v a c c i n a t e d against m e a s l e s ? A r e auto
seat belts w o r t h the cost? G o v e r n m e n t a g e n c i e s a n d b u s i n e s s e s are continually
faced w i t h q u e s t i o n s s u c h as t h e s e . In this chapter, we w i l l d e s c r i b e a d e c i s i o n tool
widely used to help answer such questions: Cost-Benefit Analysis. Understanding
cost-benefit analysis will:
J. h e l p y o u to e v a l u a t e g o v e r n m e n t a l decisions w h i c h affect y o u , a n d
2. p r o v i d e y o u w i t h a d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g tool w h i c h y o u can u s e to m a k e b u s i n e s s a n d
personal decisions.
C o s t - b e n e f i t analysis is b a s e d on a v e r y s i m p l e i d e a — t h e i d e a that we s h o u l d
t a k e a n a c t i o n o n l y after w e h a v e c o n s i d e r e d all o f its c o s t s a n d b e n e f i t s . " C e r t a i n l y
everyone k n o w s t h a t , " y o u m a y m u t t e r . W h i l e t h e i d e a i s v e r y s i m p l e , i t i s s u r p r i s -
i n g h o w o f t e n p e o p l e fail t o a p p l y it. W h e n w e b u y a n e w p u p p y , w e m a y fail t o
c o n s i d e r t h e w e a r a n d t e a r o n t h e r u g o r t h e cat. W h e n a g r o c e r c u t s t h e p r i c e
o f strawberries, h e m a y not c o n s i d e r the possibility that b l u e b e r r y sales w i l l b e
r e d u c e d as a r e s u l t .
S u p p o s e that y o u w e r e t r y i n g t o d e c i d e a m o n g s e v e r a l alternative actions, e.g.,
t o a d d a p o r c h t o y o u r h o u s e , t o i n s u l a t e it, t o t a k e a v a c a t i o n i n A r u b a , o r t o d o
nothing. To c o n d u c t a cost-benefit analysis, y o u should perform the following steps:
A. For each of the alternative actions,

1. identify all the important sources of costs and b e n e f i t s ;
2. estimate the v a l u e s of the costs a n d benefits;
3. estimate the probabilities of obtaining the costs a n d benefits; and
4. compare the e x p e c t e d v a l u e s of the costs and benefits.
B. C h o o s e t h e a c t i o n for w h i c h the expected value of the benefits m i n u s the ex-
pected value of the costs is g r e a t e s t .
E a c h o f t h e s e s t e p s h a s its o w n u n i q u e p i t f a l l s i n t o w h i c h t h e u n w a r y c o s t - b e n e f i t
a n a l y z e r m a y fall. W e w i l l d i s c u s s t h e p i t f a l l s b e l o w , b u t first w e w i l l p r e s e n t a
highly simplified e x a m p l e to illustrate the m e c h a n i c s of cost-benefit analysis.
S u p p o s e t h a t y o u h a v e f i n a l l y f o u n d a p o t e n t i a l c u s t o m e r for y o u r $200 c a r after
m o n t h s a n d m o n t h s o f t r y i n g . Y o u a r e d r i v i n g i t t o y o u r c u s t o m e r ' s h o u s e for
inspection w h e n it b e g i n s to m a k e a dreadful n o i s e — " P o c k e t a - q u e e p ! Pocketa-
q u e e p ! " A t this p o i n t y o u are a p p r o a c h i n g the o n l y repair shop i n t o w n —
183
" D i s h o n e s t F r a n k ' s G a r a g e and M o r t u a r y . " Y o u k n o w that F r a n k is a g o o d m e -

c h a n i c w h o c a n fix t h e t r o u b l e . S h o u l d y o u s t o p for r e p a i r s o r g o o n ? T o m a k e t h e
decision y o u a n a l y z e the costs a n d benefits as follows:
Action 1: Stop at Frank's
Costs. Y o u e s t i m a t e t h a t F r a n k i s m o s t l i k e l y t o c h a r g e y o u $ 5 0 ( p r o b a b i l i t y =
.80), b u t t h a t t h e b i l l m a y b e $ 1 0 0 ( p r o b a b i l i t y = .20). T h e e x p e c t e d v a l u e o f t h e
costs, then, is
EV (costs) = (.80) ($50) + (.20) ($100)

= $40 + $20
= $60
Benefits. Y o u j u d g e t h a t t h e r e are t h r e e p o s s i b l e o u t c o m e s o f y o u r s a l e s efforts:
1. T h e person w i l l be so horrified by the appearance of y o u r car that he w i l l d e c i d e

not to b u y it w i t h o u t e v e n l i s t e n i n g to the e n g i n e . In this case, the b e n e f i t is zero.
Y o u e s t i m a t e t h a t t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f t h i s o u t c o m e i s 0.50.
2 . T h e p e r s o n w i l l b e s o e n t r a n c e d b y the a p p e a r a n c e o f the car that h e w i l l b u y i t
n o m a t t e r w h a t t h e e n g i n e s o u n d s l i k e . I n t h i s c a s e , t h e b e n e f i t i s $200. Y o u
estimate that the p r o b a b i l i t y of this o u t c o m e is 0.10.
3 . T h e p e r s o n f i n d s t h e c a r a c c e p t a b l e o n l y i f t h e e n g i n e s o u n d s g o o d . I n this c a s e ,
t h a n k s t o F r a n k , t h e b e n e f i t i s $200. Y o u e s t i m a t e t h a t t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f t h i s
o u t c o m e i s 0.40.
T h e e x p e c t e d value of the benefits is
EV ( b e n e f i t s ) = (.50) (0) + (.10) ($200) + (.40) ($200)

= $100
E V ( b e n e f i t s ) - E V (costs) = $40.
Action 2: Don't Stop at Frank's
Costs. Zero
Benefits. T h e b e n e f i t s o f t h i s a c t i o n a r e t h e s a m e a s t h e b e n e f i t s for A c t i o n 1 ,
w i t h one exception. If the b u y e r d e c i d e s to listen to the e n g i n e , y o u will lose the
s a l e . I n t h i s c a s e , t h e b e n e f i t s w i l l b e z e r o r a t h e r t h a n $200.
T h e e x p e c t e d value of the benefits is
( E V ) b e n e f i t s = (.50) (0) + (.10) ($200) + (.40) (0)

= $20
E V ( b e n e f i t s ) - E V (costs) = $20.
S i n c e t h e e x p e c t e d v a l u e o f t h e b e n e f i t s m i n u s t h e c o s t s i s g r e a t e r for A c -
t i o n 1 t h a n A c t i o n 2 , y o u d e c i d e t o s t o p for r e p a i r s .
PROBLEMS IN F I N D I N G ALL OF THE I M P O R T A N T C O S T S A N D BENEFITS
S o m e actions h a v e e n o r m o u s l y w i d e s p r e a d effects w h i c h are q u i t e difficult to

track d o w n . F o r e x a m p l e , b u i l d i n g a d a m m a y h a v e effects s u c h as i m p r o v i n g flood
control and transportation, increasing recreational facilities, and providing electric
p o w e r and irrigation. T h e s e effects should result in r e d u c e d cost of p o w e r and food
a n d i n c r e a s e d t o u r i s m a n d i n d u s t r y for t h e r e g i o n . T h e s e b e n e f i t s w i l l l i k e l y b e
a c c o m p a n i e d b y a n i n c r e a s e i n traffic, i n l a w e n f o r c e m e n t p r o b l e m s , i n p o l l u t i o n ,
a n d i n t h e c o s t o f s u m m e r h o m e s . I d e n t i f y i n g all t h e c o s t s a n d b e n e f i t s i n a c o m p l e x
c a s e s u c h a s t h i s m a y p r o v e v e r y d i f f i c u l t . B e f o r e p r o c e e d i n g , try t o t h i n k o f a l l o f
the other p o s s i b l e costs and benefits in this case.
Cost Benefit Analysis 185
D i d y o u think of the potential increase in v a l u e of land in areas formerly subject

to f l o o d i n g ? D i d y o u think of the possibility that t e l e p h o n e s e r v i c e in the area m a y
b e o v e r l o a d e d ? D i d y o u t h i n k o f fire a n d h e a l t h s e r v i c e s ?
A C a s e Study
Saccharin: To Ban or Not to Ban?
In March of 1977, the C o m m i s s i o n e r of the F o o d and D r u g Administration

created a minor public uproar w h e n he proposed b a n n i n g the sale of saccharin. T h e
C o m m i s s i o n e r took this action b e c a u s e he j u d g e d that saccharin p o s e d a small b u t
d e f i n i t e h e a l t h h a z a r d for h u m a n s . H e e s t i m a t e d t h a t t h e l i f e t i m e u s e o f o n e
s a c c h a r i n - s w e e t e n e d soft d r i n k p e r d a y m i g h t c a u s e a s m a n y a s 1,200 c a s e s o f
b l a d d e r cancer p e r y e a r in the U n i t e d States.
T h e law under w h i c h the C o m m i s s i o n e r was acting is very specific. T h e
Federal F o o d , D r u g , and C o s m e t i c Act w h i c h regulates food additives contains the
so-called D e l a n e y anti-cancer c l a u s e (21 U S C § 348). T h i s c l a u s e states t h a t " . . . n o
a d d i t i v e s h a l l b e d e e m e d t o b e safe i f i t i s f o u n d t o i n d u c e c a n c e r w h e n i n g e s t e d
by m a n or a n i m a l "
A recently c o m p l e t e d C a n a d i a n study (1974) p r o v i d e d the C o m m i s s i o n e r w i t h
r e a s o n a b l y c o n v i n c i n g e v i d e n c e t h a t s a c c h a r i n d o e s i n d u c e c a n c e r i n rats. T h e
C o m m i s s i o n e r ' s d u t y w a s c l e a r . H e had t o b a n s a c c h a r i n . H o w e v e r , t h i s w a s n o t t h e
w h o l e story. A s t h e C o m m i s s i o n e r s a i d (Federal Register, A p r i l 1 5 , 1 9 7 7 ) ,
Press reports of the announcement of the F D A ' s intention to withdraw approval

of saccharin as an ingredient in foods and beverages have g i v e n the impression that
the Commissioner is acting reluctantly, based exclusively on the D e l a n e y anti-
cancer clause of the Federal Food, Drug, and C o s m e t i c A c t . . . and, further, that the
agency's action was triggered solely by the findings of the Canadian study. Neither
impression is accurate.
He cited a n u m b e r of other studies, in addition to the Canadian one, w h i c h had

i n d e p e n d e n t l y s u g g e s t e d that saccharin c a u s e d cancer. In addition, he stated a
r a t i o n a l e for b a n n i n g e v e n m i l d c a n c e r - c a u s i n g a g e n t s s u c h a s s a c c h a r i n :
Although the risk from consumption of saccharin is small compared to that of

other health hazards, e.g., cigarette smoking, saccharin is only one of a potentially
large number of hazards present in our environment. T h e Commissioner b e l i e v e s
that reduction of prolonged, general exposure to a number of w e a k l y carcinogenic
substances in our environment as they are discovered may be essential to reduce the
total incidence of cancer. (Federal Register, April 15, 1977)
T h e proposed ban received a considerable amount of unfavorable comment.

Marvin Eisenstadt, executive president of C u m b e r l a n d Packing Corporation, the
nation's largest p r o d u c e r of l o w calorie s w e e t e n e r s , c h a r g e d that the " o u t r a g e o u s
and harmful action" w a s b a s e d on "flimsy scientific e v i d e n c e . " Public opinion
polls s h o w e d that a majority of c o n s u m e r s b e l i e v e d that the a n i m a l tests w e r e either
i r r e l e v a n t o r n o t c o n c l u s i v e . (As w e w i l l s e e , t h e p u b l i c w a s w r o n g o n b o t h c o u n t s ,
but not necessarily w r o n g in their opposition to the ban.)
Criticism of the scientific e v i d e n c e varied in sophistication. On the simple-
m i n d e d e n d w a s t h e p o p u l a r j o k e , " W h a t t h e s t u d i e s s h o w i s t h a t rats s h o u l d n ' t
d r i n k d i e t c o l a . " T h e u g l y fact i s t h a t a g e n t s t h a t c a u s e c a n c e r i n rats a r e v e r y l i k e l y
to cause it in h u m a n s , too. A more sophisticated criticism c o n c e r n e d the saccharin
d o s a g e s i n v o l v e d i n t h e s t u d y . T h e a m o u n t o f s a c c h a r i n t h e rats w e r e g i v e n w a s ,
t a k i n g t h e i r b o d y w e i g h t i n t o a c c o u n t , a b o u t 1,000 t i m e s g r e a t e r t h a n t h e a m o u n t a
h u m a n w o u l d t y p i c a l l y u s e . T h i s c r i t i c i s m s e e m s i m p r e s s i v e o n first h e a r i n g .
H o w e v e r , i t l o s e s m u c h o f its f o r c e w h e n o n e c o n s i d e r s t h e r a t i o n a l e o f a n i m a l
s t u d i e s . F i r s t , t h e l i f e s p a n o f a rat ( t w o y e a r s ) i s m u c h s h o r t e r t h a n t h a t o f a h u m a n
(75 years). If we are i n t e r e s t e d in lifespan effects, t h e n it is r e a s o n a b l e to u s e h i g h e r
d o s a g e s i n t h e rat w h o i s e x p o s e d o v e r a m u c h s h o r t e r t i m e t h a n t h e h u m a n .
F u r t h e r , i n a h u m a n p o p u l a t i o n , a n i n c i d e n c e o f o n e c a s e o f c a n c e r i n 1,000 o r
i n 10,000 w o u l d b e c o n s i d e r e d i m p o r t a n t . A n i m a l r e s e a r c h e r s t y p i c a l l y c o n d u c t
their e x p e r i m e n t s w i t h o n l y 50 or 100 animals. If a n i m a l r e s e a r c h e r s u s e d a dosage
o f s a c c h a r i n w h i c h p r o d u c e d o n l y o n e c a s e i n 1,000 o r o n e c a s e i n 10,000, t h e r e i s
a v e r y g o o d c h a n c e t h a t n o n e o f t h e i r o n e h u n d r e d rats w o u l d s h o w a n y s i g n s o f t h e
disease. To have a reasonable chance of observing an important cancer-producing
effect, the researchers m u s t e i t h e r u s e a v e r y large n u m b e r of animals or increase
the effect by using a h i g h dosage. T h e researchers' d e c i s i o n to use h i g h dosages is
entirely justified.
Most of the criticism of the F D A ruling was directed at the validity of the
e v i d e n c e that saccharin c a u s e d cancer. T h i s criticism appears t o h a v e b e e n o v e r l y
severe. R e c e n t studies h a v e c o n f i r m e d the c o n c l u s i o n that saccharin d o e s c a u s e
b l a d d e r cancer. D o e s i t follow t h e n that w e s h o u l d b a n saccharin? W h a t d o y o u
think?
We k n o w that u s i n g saccharin has a c o s t — n a m e l y an increased i n c i d e n c e of as
m u c h a s 1,200 c a s e s o f b l a d d e r c a n c e r a y e a r . B u t w h a t a b o u t t h e b e n e f i t s o f
saccharin? T h e r e are t w o major uses of saccharin: 1. to h e l p diabetics k e e p to their
sugar-free diets, a n d 2 . t o h e l p dieters k e e p their w e i g h t d o w n . W e w i l l discuss only
the second benefit.
E x c e s s w e i g h t m a y s e e m a trivial health p r o b l e m c o m p a r e d to cancer, b u t in
this c a s e , i t m a y n o t b e t r i v i a l a t a l l . E x c e s s w e i g h t h a s i m p o r t a n t i m p l i c a t i o n s for
health and life. P e o p l e w h o are o v e r w e i g h t die y o u n g e r than other p e o p l e . Bernard
C o h e n ( 1 9 7 8 ) h a s c o m p a r e d t h e b e n e f i t s o f s a c c h a r i n i n c o n t r o l l i n g w e i g h t w i t h its
costs i n c a u s i n g c a n c e r . U s i n g t h e F D A data, C o h e n c a l c u l a t e d that d u e t o c a n c e r
risk, e a c h soft d r i n k r e d u c e d o n e ' s l i f e e x p e c t a n c y b y a b o u t n i n e s e c o n d s . T o p u t
this i n p e r s p e c t i v e , e a c h c i g a r e t t e r e d u c e s l i f e e x p e c t a n c y b y a b o u t 1 2 m i n u t e s , o r
about 80 times as m u c h . D r i n k i n g a diet drink e v e r y day over a w h o l e lifetime
w o u l d r e d u c e life e x p e c t a n c y b y a b o u t t w o d a y s .
N o w , life i n s u r a n c e statistics s h o w that e v e r y p o u n d of e x c e s s w e i g h t a p e r s o n
c a r r i e s d e c r e a s e s life e x p e c t a n c y b y 2 9 d a y s . S u b s t i t u t i n g o n e s a c c h a r i n - s w e e t e n e d
d r i n k for a s u g a r - s w e e t e n e d d r i n k e v e r y d a y w o u l d r e d u c e w e i g h t e n o u g h t o c a u s e
a 200-day increase in life e x p e c t a n c y — 1 0 0 times as large as the t w o - d a y d e c r e a s e
d u e t o c a n c e r risk. T h u s , e v e n w i t h o u t c o n s i d e r i n g t h e b e n e f i t s o f s u g a r - f r e e d r i n k s
for d i a b e t i c s , i t a p p e a r s t h a t t h e b e n e f i t s o f s a c c h a r i n a r e m u c h g r e a t e r t h a n its
costs.*
W h a t c a n w e l e a r n f r o m a c a s e s u c h a s t h i s ? A t least t w o t h i n g s .
1. A law, like the D e l a n e y anti-cancer clause, w h i c h focuses narrowly on avoiding

one particular k i nd of cost, m a y be more harmful than helpful. By failing to look
a t all t h e c o s t s a n d b e n e f i t s , i t m a y k i l l m o r e p e o p l e t h a n i t s a v e s . T h i s p o i n t
b e c o m e s d r a m a t i c a l l y e v i d e n t i n t h e c a s e o f V i t a m i n A , a s u b s t a n c e necessary t o
life. V i t a m i n A has b e e n s h o w n to h a v e m i l d c a n c e r - c a u s i n g effects. If we tried
to stamp out V i t a m i n A b e c a u s e of this particular cost, we w o u l d do vast harm.
* W e may want to question C o h e n ' s analysis of the healthful effects of diet drinks. For
example, we might want proof that overweight people actually do reduce their intake of
calories as a result of using diet soft drinks. T h e r e are e n o u g h reports of people who diet by
eating large quantities of diet foods in addition to their regular meals to make us question this
assumption. Whether C o h e n ' s analysis is accurate or not, it serves to alert us that health costs
due to excess w e i g h t may be considerable, and should be accurately evaluated and taken into
account in making the saccharin decision.
T h e point applies not just to laws, like the D e l a n e y clause, but to decision
procedures generally. W h e n e v e r we focus narrowly on avoiding a particular cost
and don't take all the important costs and benefits into account, we m a y m a k e
very bad decisions.
2. A s e c o n d l e s s o n t o b e d e r i v e d f r o m t h e s a c c h a r i n c a s e i s t h a t p e o p l e o f t e n fail t o
l o o k for a l l t h e c o s t s a n d b e n e f i t s . T h e p r o p o s e d b a n f o c u s e d e n t i r e l y o n t h e
c a n c e r issue, as d i d objections to the ban. T h i s w r i t e r w a s a p p a l l e d to see his
favorite n e w s commentators looking v e r y serious about the controversy,
s c r u n c h i n g u p t h e i r e y e b r o w s , s a y i n g , " W e l l , j u s t h o w g o o d i s t h e e v i d e n c e that
saccharin causes c a n c e r ? " and c o m p l e t e l y missing the point that there might be
costs as w e l l as benefits in b a n n i n g saccharin.
D e l a n e y d i d n ' t c o n s i d e r all t h e c o s t s a n d b e n e f i t s o f s a c c h a r i n w h e n h e w a s
w r i t i n g his law, the F D A C o m m i s s i o n e r d i d n ' t c o n s i d e r t h e m w h e n h e p r o p o s e d
his ban, and the p u b l i c d i d n ' t c o n s i d e r t h e m w h e n t h e y criticized the ban.
Cost-benefit analysis may seem a very elementary and obvious idea, but people
surely have failed to use it in cases w h e r e it was appropriate.
In the saccharin case, applying the technique of cost-benefit analysis w o u l d

have broadened people's perspective on the problem by leading them to search
a c t i v e l y for c o s t s a n d b e n e f i t s . I t w o u l d b y n o m e a n s h a v e g u a r a n t e e d that t h e y
w o u l d find t h e m all, h o w e v e r .
PROBLEMS IN ESTIMATING PROBABILITIES
We have already discussed some of the problems caused w h e n p e o p l e make

s u b j e c t i v e j u d g m e n t s o f p r o b a b i l i t y , a s w i t h t h e g a m b l e r ' s f a l l a c y ( C h a p t e r 8).
Measuring objective probabilities can cause problems as w e l l . T h i s is particularly
true w h e n w e a r e d e a l i n g w i t h n e w t e c h n o l o g y . I f w e w a n t e d t o m e a s u r e t h e
p r o b a b i l i t y o f f a i l u r e o f a 1 9 7 0 ' s a u t o m a t i c t r a n s m i s s i o n , for e x a m p l e , w e c o u l d
c o u n t t h e n u m b e r o f u n i t s t h a t f a i l e d after o n e y e a r , after t w o y e a r s , a n d after
three years, and c o m p u t e the appropriate probabilities. F o r a n e w transmission just
d e v e l o p e d this year, t h o u g h , we don't h a v e the data to m a k e these probability
measurements. C u s t o m e r s might like to have them n o w , b u t we simply can't
deliver them.
W h e n n u c l e a r r e a c t o r s w e r e first d e v e l o p e d , e n g i n e e r s w a n t e d t o k n o w t h e
probabilities that various materials such as steel and concrete w o u l d be w e a k e n e d
by intense radiation. M a n y years of e x p e r i e n c e w i t h the n e w t e c h n o l o g y w e r e
required before the answers could be provided.
O t h e r c a s e s i n w h i c h i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o g e t a d e q u a t e p r o b a b i l i t y e s t i m a t e s are
situations i n v o l v i n g large risks w h i c h h a v e a v e r y small p r o b a b i l i t y of occurring,
such as airplane crashes a n d oil spills. S u p p o s e that y o u are c o n s i d e r i n g b u y i n g a
h o u s e j u s t b e l o w a n e w d a m . I t i s i m p o r t a n t for y o u t o k n o w w h e t h e r t h e p r o b a b i l i t y
that t h e d a m w i l l b r e a k i n t h e n e x t 1 0 y e a r s i s o n e i n a h u n d r e d , o n e i n t e n t h o u s a n d ,
one in a million or less. Y o u ask an e n g i n e e r w h o says, " W e l l , that's a n e w kind of
d a m , a n d o n l y 2 0 o f t h e m are 1 0 y e a r s o l d . S i n c e n o n e h a s b r o k e n y e t , I s u p p o s e that
m e a n s that t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f f a i l u r e i s b e t w e e n z e r o a n d o n e i n 2 0 , o r f i v e p e r c e n t . "
Unfortunately, this is n o w h e r e near the accuracy y o u n e e d to m a k e your decision.
A great deal of e x p e r i e n c e is n e e d e d in m a k i n g d e c i s i o n s of this kind, and some-
t i m e s that e x p e r i e n c e j u s t i s n ' t a v a i l a b l e .
In-evaluating n u c l e a r p o w e r , a major cost to be c o n s i d e r e d is the possibility of
a d i s a s t r o u s n u c l e a r e x p l o s i o n . T o e v a l u a t e t h i s c o s t , a n a l y s t s m u s t try t o i d e n t i f y all
o f t h e w a y s i n w h i c h a n a c c i d e n t c o u l d o c c u r . T o d o t h i s , t h e y m a y start w i t h t h e
s t a n d a r d o p e r a t i n g p r o c e d u r e o f t h e p l a n t a n d ask w h a t c a n g o w r o n g i n t h e p r o c e -
dure. F o r e x a m p l e , t h e y m a y ask, " W h a t w o u l d h a p p e n if the reactor heat control

p u m p s h o u l d f a i l ? " or, " W h a t w o u l d h a p p e n i f t h e r e a c t o r h e a t - c o n t r o l p u m p and
the reactor temperature-warning system should both fail?" By w o r k i n g through the
potential failures and combinations of failures in the standard operation of the plant,
the analysts can arrive at an estimate of the likelihood of an accident. T h i s is a
d i f f i c u l t task e v e n i f w e a s s u m e t h a t t h e o p e r a t o r s a r e f o l l o w i n g s t a n d a r d p r o c e -
d u r e s . I f t h e y a r e n o t , t h e d i f f i c u l t i e s are e n o r m o u s l y i n c r e a s e d . F o r e x a m p l e ,
v i o l a t i o n o f s t a n d a r d p r o c e d u r e w a s a n i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r i n t h e fire a t t h e B r o w n ' s
F e r r y N u c l e a r P o w e r P l a n t . T h i s fire n a r r o w l y m i s s e d c a u s i n g " m a n y c a s u a l t i e s a n d
radiation contamination of a large part of A l a b a m a a n d T e n n e s s e e " ( C o m e y , 1975).
T e c h n i c i a n s i n t h e p l a n t h a d b e e n s e a r c h i n g for air l e a k s . O n e i n g e n i o u s t e c h n i c i a n
was using a candle to aid the search, grossly violating standard operating procedure,
b u t i m p r o v i n g t h e e f f i c i e n c y o f t h e s e a r c h . T h e c a n d l e c a u s e d t h e f i r e , a n d t h e fire,
together w i t h a f e w other malfunctions, almost c a u s e d a major n u c l e a r disaster.
Clearly violations of standard procedure can lead to accidents. Unfortunately,
it's v e r y h a r d for a n a n a l y s t t o p r e d i c t all o f t h e i n g e n i o u s w a y s i n w h i c h p e o p l e w i l l
violate standard procedure.
T a k i n g the saccharin and the B r o w n ' s F e r r y cases together, w e can s e e that
cost-benefit analysis can help in complex decisions, but we should recognize
c l e a r l y t h a t i t i s s u b j e c t t o error. Just b e c a u s e s o m e o n e has d o n e a c o s t - b e n e f i t

a n a l y s i s d o e s n ' t g u a r a n t e e that t h e y h a v e d o n e i t r i g h t .
THE PROBLEM OF C O M P A R I N G DIFFERENT SORTS OF VALUES

O n e o f t h e d r a w b a c k s o f c o s t - b e n e f i t a n a l y s i s i s that i t i s s o m e t i m e s d i f f i c u l t t o
c o m p a r e v a l u e s o f d i f f e r e n t sorts. F o r m a n y t h i n g s , m o n e y p r o v i d e s a c o n v e n i e n t
s c a l e for c o m p a r i s o n . S i n c e i t i s o u r m e d i u m o f e x c h a n g e , m a n y t h i n g s are a s s i g n e d
m o n e y v a l u e s o r p r i c e s . T h e s e p r i c e s g i v e u s a w a y o f d e c i d i n g h o w m a n y " X ' s " are
worth a " Y " . M o n e y values allow us to "compare apples and oranges" in everyday
commerce.
T h e r e i s still a " c o m p a r i n g a p p l e s a n d o r a n g e s " p r o b l e m , h o w e v e r , b e c a u s e
t h e r e are m a n y i m p o r t a n t t h i n g s for w h i c h w e d o n o t o r d i n a r i l y s e t a p r i c e . F o r
e x a m p l e , a n e w d a m m a y p r o v i d e f a c i l i t i e s for w a t e r sports a s o n e o f its b e n e f i t s .
H o w d o w e c o m p a r e t h e p l e a s u r e p e o p l e g e t from w a t e r sports w i t h t h e d o l l a r c o s t
of the d a m ? A n e w s u b w a y system may provide a quieter, less c r o w d e d ride than
the old. H o w do we c o m p a r e the increased comfort of the riders w i t h the dollar cost
of the n e w system? An intensive care unit m a y save some lives w h i c h otherwise
m i g h t h a v e b e e n lost. H o w d o w e c o m p a r e t h e v a l u e o f t h e s e l i v e s w i t h t h e c o s t o f
the intensive care unit?
I n this last c a s e , s o m e p e o p l e w i l l state flatly t h a t y o u c a n ' t p u t a v a l u e o n a
l i f e — c e r t a i n l y n o t a m o n e y v a l u e . T h e r e are t w o t h i n g s s u c h a s t a t e m e n t m i g h t
m e a n . F i r s t , i t m i g h t m e a n t h a t t h e r e r e a l l y i s n o w a y t o c o m p a r e t h e v a l u e o f a life
t o t h e v a l u e of, s a y , t e n d o l l a r s . B y this i n t e r p r e t a t i o n , i f w e a s k t h e q u e s t i o n , " I s
Smith worth ten dollars?" the a n s w e r must b e , "I don't k n o w and there is no w a y
t o d e c i d e . " I t h i n k t h i s a n s w e r i s u n a c c e p t a b l e . M o s t o f u s w o u l d a g r e e r e a d i l y that
a life i s w o r t h m u c h m o r e t h a n t e n d o l l a r s , e v e n t h o u g h w e all k n o w a f e w e x c e p -
tions.
T h e o t h e r i n t e r p r e t a t i o n i s that a life i s w o r t h m o r e t h a n a n y a m o u n t o f m o n e y
we can i m a g i n e . W h i l e this interpretation has a certain attractiveness, it is surely
false. C o n s i d e r t h e f o l l o w i n g d i f f i c u l t p r o b l e m . S u p p o s e t h a t t h e life o f a c h i l d
d e p e n d e d o n a v e r y e x p e n s i v e k i d n e y m a c h i n e — s o e x p e n s i v e , i n fact, that i t
r e q u i r e d all o f t h e n a t i o n ' s r e s o u r c e s t o k e e p i t r u n n i n g . G i v e n a v o t e , w o u l d y o u
v o t e t o d e v o t e all o f t h e n a t i o n ' s r e s o u r c e s t o s a v i n g this c h i l d ' s l i f e ? I f y o u d i d , y o u
w o u l d b e v o t i n g for i m p o v e r i s h m e n t , s u f f e r i n g , a n d d e a t h for a g r e a t m a n y o t h e r
p e o p l e . M o n e y r u n s h o s p i t a l s , m o n e y g r o w s c r o p s , m o n e y p a y s for i m m u n i z a t i o n s
a n d p r e n a t a l c a r e . M o n e y r e p r e s e n t s r e s o u r c e s a n d t h e u g l y fact i s that r e s o u r c e s are
limited. If we s p e n d a million dollars to save Smith, we m a y not h a v e the million
dollars that w o u l d b e r e q u i r e d t o s a v e C i n c i n n a t i .
W h a t c a n w e c o n c l u d e f r o m t h e k i d n e y - m a c h i n e e x a m p l e ? W e are f o r c e d t o t h e
difficult c o n c l u s i o n t h a t w e c a n ' t sensibly s p e n d u n l i m i t e d a m o u n t s t o s a v e a partic-
ular p e r s o n ' s l i f e . T o d o s o w o u l d c o s t m a n y m o r e l i v e s t h a n i t w o u l d s a v e . W e l l ,
then, h o w m u c h should we spend to save a life? We k n o w we should spend more
than t e n d o l l a r s a n d w e k n o w t h a t w e s h o u l d n ' t s p e n d s o m u c h t h a t w e c a u s e t h e
d e a t h s o f lots o f o t h e r p e o p l e , b u t h o w m u c h should w e s p e n d ?
T h e r e i s n o c l e a r a n s w e r t o this q u e s t i o n . N o n e t h e l e s s , t o r e v e a l t h e n a t u r e o f
t h e p r o b l e m a little m o r e c l e a r l y , l e t ' s e x a m i n e t h e k i d n e y - m a c h i n e p r o b l e m i n a
smaller c o n t e x t — t h e context of a single family. I m a g i n e a family w i t h five children.
O n e of the five w i l l die if he d o e s n ' t h a v e the k i d n e y m a c h i n e . S h o u l d the parents
p r o v i d e t h e m o n e y for t h e m a c h i n e i f i t m e a n s that
1. T h e o t h e r four w i l l d i e ? Yes ( ) No ( )
or
2 . T h e o t h e r four w i l l l i v e i n a b j e c t p o v e r t y w i t h g r e a t l y d e c r e a s e d life e x p e c -
tancies? Yes ( ) No ( )
or
3 . T h e o t h e r four w i l l l i v e i n a b j e c t p o v e r t y w i t h a s t r o n g p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t t h e y
will b e c o m e criminals, perhaps murderers? Yes ( ) No ( )
or
4 . T h e o t h e r four, w h o are b l i n d , w i l l h a v e t o g i v e u p r e m e d i a l s u r g e r y ?
Yes ( ) No ( )
or
5. T h e other four w i l l h a v e to drop out of h i g h school b e f o r e graduation to take
menial jobs? Yes ( ) No ( )
or
6. T h e other four, t h o u g h p r o m i s i n g students, w i l l h a v e no c h a n c e to go to
college? Yes ( ) No ( )
or
7. T h e f a m i l y w o n ' t be a b l e to b u y a p i a n o or a c a r ? Yes ( ) No ( )
T h e s e are h o r r i b l e q u e s t i o n s t o ask. W e a s k t h e m o n l y b e c a u s e t h e y r e v e a l s o m e -
thing of the nature of a very important problem. Most people will answer " n o " to
t h e first q u e s t i o n a n d " y e s " t o t h e last, b u t m a y d i f f e r o n t h e i r a n s w e r s t o t h e
questions in b e t w e e n .
In order to answer these questions we have to compare human values of very
d i f f e r e n t sorts. W e h a v e t o c o m p a r e c e r t a i n d e a t h w i t h a p r o b a b i l i t y o f d e a t h , o r
w i t h life-long suffering, or w i t h lost opportunities. P e o p l e differ from one another
in t h e s e d e c i s i o n s , p e r h a p s b e c a u s e their v a l u e s differ, or p e r h a p s t h e y aren't q u i t e
sure at a n y g i v e n m o m e n t w h a t their v a l u e s are in t h e s e difficult comparisons.
L o w - i n c o m e p e o p l e m a y place more importance on curing blindness and less on
graduating from h i g h school than do h i g h - i n c o m e p e o p l e . P e o p l e s e e m to place a
h i g h e r v a l u e o n l i v e s i f t h e i n d i v i d u a l s are i d e n t i f i e d t h a n i f t h e y a r e a n o n y m o u s .
As Z e c h h a u s e r (1975) points out, we are v e r y u n l i k e l y to s e n d astronauts on one-
w a y trips into s p a c e e v e n t h o u g h i t w o u l d greatly c u t costs. W e are m u c h m o r e
l i k e l y t o r e d u c e e x p e n s e s for h i g h w a y s a f e t y w h e r e t h e v i c t i m s , w h i l e m o r e n u m e r -
ous, die in comforting anonymity.
W h a t can we c o n c l u d e a b o u t c o m p a r i n g v a l u e s s u c h as life, happiness, and
m o n e y ? S u c h c o m p a r i s o n s are v e r y d i f f i c u l t . P e o p l e w i l l n o t a g r e e w i t h e a c h o t h e r
a n d t h e y w i l l n o t a g r e e w i t h t h e m s e l v e s a t d i f f e r e n t t i m e s a n d i n d i f f e r e n t situa-
tions. H o w e v e r , w e cannot avoid such comparisons. W e m a k e them frequently
w h e t h e r w e d o s o i n full c o n s c i o u s n e s s o r not. G o v e r n m e n t s d o s o w h e n t h e y
establish p u r e food a n d d r u g l a w s , or set airline safety standards. Individuals m a k e
these comparisons w h e n they d e c i d e w h e t h e r or not to ride a motorcycle or to enter
a high-risk profession such as police work. Cost-benefit analysis w o n ' t make the
d i f f i c u l t y o f t h e s e v a l u e c o m p a r i s o n s g o a w a y . H o w e v e r , t h e f r a m e w o r k o f cost-
benefit analysis can h e l p us as individuals and as a society to be clearer and more
systematic a b o u t w h a t w e are d o i n g w h e n w e m a k e t h e s e comparisons.
D e a l i n g w i t h V a l u e C o m p a r i s o n s in Practice
T h e r e are s o m e s i t u a t i o n s i n w h i c h w e c a n g e t a r o u n d d i f f i c u l t v a l u e c o m p a r i -
sons by u s i n g a d o m i n a n c e rule. F o r e x a m p l e , c o n s i d e r a d i a b e t e s detection pro-
g r a m . T h e c o s t s o f s u c h a p r o g r a m i n c l u d e f i n a n c i a l c o s t s — s u c h a s w a g e s for
p h y s i c i a n s a n d t e c h n i c i a n s , testing materials, carfare a n d w a g e s lost by the persons
t e s t e d — a n d h u m a n comfort c o s t s — s u c h as the a n n o y a n c e of w a i t i n g in the office.
Similarly, the benefits of the program include the financial benefits of avoiding the
e x p e n s e s of hospitalization and lost w a g e s , and the h u m a n comfort benefits of
a v o i d i n g b l i n d n e s s and pain. W e can a p p l y the d o m i n a n c e rule i n this d e c i s i o n a s
follows: If the b e n e f i t s are greater than the costs in one of the t w o areas a n d no
w o r s e than the costs in the other, t h e n the program s h o u l d be u n d e r t a k e n . T h u s , if

the financial costs a n d benefits w e r e the s a m e , b u t the h u m a n comfort benefits w e r e
g r e a t e r t h a n t h e c o s t s , t h e n t h e total b e n e f i t s w o u l d b e g r e a t e r t h a n t h e c o s t s .
S u p p o s e it costs as m u c h in dollars to i m m u n i z e p e o p l e against a disease as it
d o e s t o t r e a t t h e m for t h e d i s e a s e . S i n c e i t i s b e t t e r i n h u m a n t e r m s for p e o p l e t o
a v o i d t h e d i s e a s e t h a n t o h a v e it, t h e total b e n e f i t s o f i m m u n i z a t i o n w o u l d e x c e e d
its c o s t s .
The D i r e c t A p p r o a c h t o V a l u e C o m p a r i s o n
A n o t h e r w a y t o d e a l w i t h v a l u e c o m p a r i s o n i s t h e d i r e c t a p p r o a c h . W e c a n ask
p e o p l e t o t e l l u s h o w m u c h t h e y w o u l d b e w i l l i n g t o p a y for t h e p l e a s u r e o f g o i n g
f i s h i n g , o r for r e l i e f f r o m h a y f e v e r , o r for a l e s s r i s k y j o b . C o n s i d e r t h e f o l l o w i n g
decision. S u p p o s e y o u are offered t w o s u m m e r j o b s as b a n k guard at different
b r a n c h e s o f t h e s a m e b a n k . O n e j o b i n t h e s u b u r b a n b r a n c h w h e r e t h e r e i s z e r o risk
t o y o u r life p a y s $5,000 for t h e s u m m e r . T h e o t h e r j o b i s i n a b u s y u r b a n a r e a a n d
i n v o l v e s a o n e p e r c e n t r i s k t o y o u r life o v e r t h e s u m m e r . H o w m u c h w o u l d t h e j o b
in the urban b r a n c h h a v e to pay to be as attractive as the s u b u r b a n j o b ? W o u l d an
extra $ 1 0 0 b e e n o u g h ? H o w a b o u t a n e x t r a m i l l i o n ? W h i l e m e a s u r e m e n t s s u c h a s
t h e s e are n o t v e r y p r e c i s e , t h e y d o g i v e u s s o m e i d e a o f h o w t h e i n d i v i d u a l c o m -
pares very different v a l u e s , and allow us to p r o c e e d w i t h a cost-benefit analysis.
(For a more d e t a i l e d discussion of these m e t h o d s , see Z e c h h a u s e r , 1975.)
PROBLEMS IN C O M P A R I N G C O S T S A N D BENEFITS RECEIVED AT DIFFERENT TIMES
In d o i n g a cost-benefit analysis, we f r e q u e n t l y h a v e to c o m p a r e costs and

benefits r e c e i v e d at different times. F o r e x a m p l e , suppose that on January 1 of year
z e r o t h e J o n e s C o m p a n y i n v e s t s $3,200 i n a m a c h i n e w h i c h e a r n s $1,000 a y e a r ,
p a y a b l e o n J a n u a r y 1 o f y e a r s 1 , 2 , 3 , a n d 4 , a n d t h e n i t w e a r s o u t . A t first g l a n c e i t
a p p e a r s t h a t t h e b e n e f i t s o u t w e i g h t h e c o s t s by $800 ( T a b l e 1 ) , but this isn't right!
T h e benefits r e c e i v e d in years 2, 3, and 4 are not directly c o m p a r a b l e to the costs
i n y e a r 1 . T o u n d e r s t a n d w h y t h e y a r e n o t d i r e c t l y c o m p a r a b l e a n d h o w t h e y can
b e c o m p a r e d , w e w i l l h a v e t o d i s c u s s i n t e r e s t a n d its r e l a t i o n t o t h e p r e s e n t a n d
future v a l u e o f m o n e y .
C o m p u t i n g Interest
Interest—Simple and Compound
S u p p o s e that y o u put $100 in the b a n k at 6% interest and then e v e r y year y o u

r e c e i v e a c h e c k for $6.00. T h i s i s c a l l e d " s i m p l e " i n t e r e s t . I f y o u i n v e s t P d o l l a r s a t
i % i n t e r e s t for n y e a r s , t h e t o t a l a m o u n t o f m o n e y y o u w i l l h a v e after n y e a r s , F , i s .
F u t u r e v a l u e = P r i n c i p a l + ( P r i n c i p a l x i n t e r e s t x n u m b e r of y e a r s )
T h i s may also be written as
F = P ( l + in)
If we invest $100 at 6% simple interest, in 10 years we will have
F = P + Pin
= $ 1 0 0 + $ 1 0 0 x (.06) x 1 0
= $ 1 0 0 + $60
= $160
S u p p o s e o n t h e o t h e r h a n d y o u i n v e s t $ 1 0 0 i n t h e b a n k a t 6 % i n t e r e s t , b u t rather
than r e c e i v i n g an interest c h e c k each year, y o u have the interest a d d e d to the
amount already in the bank. T h u s , the interest w i l l also collect interest. T h i s is
c a l l e d " c o m p o u n d " i n t e r e s t . I f y o u i n v e s t P d o l l a r s a t i % i n t e r e s t for n y e a r s , t h e
total a m o u n t o f m o n e y y o u w i l l h a v e after n y e a r s , F , a t c o m p o u n d i n t e r e s t i s
2. F = P(l + i) n
If we i n v e s t $100 at 6% c o m p o u n d interest, in 10 years we will h a v e
F = P(l + i) n
= 1 0 0 (1 + . 0 6 ) 1 0
= $179.08
T a b l e 2 c o m p a r e s t h e v a l u e o f F for s i m p l e a n d c o m p o u n d i n t e r e s t o v e r 2 0
years. C l e a r l y c o m p o u n d interest has an increasing a d v a n t a g e o v e r s i m p l e interest
a s t i m e p a s s e s . W e w i l l b e c o n c e r n e d primarily w i t h c o m p o u n d interest i n this
discussion.
Table 2
w o r k b a c k w a r d s , t h a t i s , w e are g i v e n t h e f u t u r e v a l u e a n d w e w a n t t o c o m p u t e t h e
p r e s e n t v a l u e f r o m it. E q u a t i o n 3 s h o w s h o w t o d o t h i s . I t i s d e r i v e d d i r e c t l y f r o m
E q u a t i o n 2.
N o w b a c k to the Jones C o m p a n y . U s i n g E q u a t i o n 3 and assuming an interest

r a t e o f 1 0 % , w e c a n c o m p u t e t h e p r e s e n t v a l u e (that i s , t h e v a l u e o n Jan. 1 , y e a r 0 )
of $1,000 r e c e i v e d on Jan. 1, in years 1, 2, 3, a n d 4. A t h o u s a n d dollars r e c e i v e d on
Jan. 1 , y e a r 1 , i s t h e f u t u r e v a l u e o f t h e u n k n o w n p r e s e n t v a l u e , P a n d after o n e
l 9
year's interest. T h u s
T h e s u m o f t h e s e v a l u e s i s $ 3 , 1 6 9 . 7 7 , w h i c h i s l e s s t h a n $3,200! T h u s , t h e present
value o f t h e e a r n i n g s t o b e r e c e i v e d o v e r four y e a r s i s a c t u a l l y l e s s t h a n t h e p r e s e n t
value of the investment in the machine. T h e Jones C o m p a n y w o u l d do better to
invest their m o n e y at 10 percent and forget about b u y i n g the machine.
SUMMARY
C o s t - b e n e f i t analysis is a d e c i s i o n p r o c e d u r e in w h i c h we c o m p a r e the ex-

p e c t e d costs a n d benefits of alternative actions. It i n v o l v e s the f o l l o w i n g steps:
A. For each of the alternative actions:

1 . i d e n t i f y all t h e i m p o r t a n t s o u r c e s o f c o s t s a n d b e n e f i t s ;
2. estimate the v a l u e s of the costs and benefits;
3. estimate the probabilities of obtaining the costs a n d benefits; and
4. c o m p a r e the e x p e c t e d v a l u e s of the costs a n d benefits.
B. C h o o s e t h e a c t i o n for w h i c h the expected value of the benefits m i n u s the
expected value of the costs is g r e a t e s t .
W h e n w e d o cost-benefit analysis, w e m a y e n c o u n t e r a n u m b e r o f practical

problems. T h e s e include:
1 . d i f f i c u l t i e s i n i d e n t i f y i n g all o f t h e i m p o r t a n t c o s t s a n d b e n e f i t s ;
2. difficulties in estimating probabilities (especially w h e n dealing with
n e w technology); and
3 . d i f f i c u l t i e s i n c o m p a r i n g v a l u e s o f d i f f e r e n t sorts, e . g . , t h e v a l u e o f a j o b
opportunity v e r s u s the v a l u e of a life.
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
Problem #1
In an a r t i c l e in t h e Journal of the American Medical Association, K i r k l a n d
( 1 9 7 7 ) , q u e s t i o n e d t h e u s e f u l n e s s o f s c r e e n i n g p a t i e n t s o v e r 6 5 for s y p h i l i s . H e
said:
T h e economics of hospital care have now made the scrutiny of all expenses, no
matter h o w small, necessary.
At Emory University Hospital, screening for syphilis has had the sanctity of
tradition and official requirements. At the time of this study, an 'admissions package'
g i v e n to each n e w patient by the admissions office included a requisition for an
automated reagin test (ART) [a test for syphilis].
K i r k l a n d r e v i e w e d t h e folders of 300 patients 65 or older, a n d f o u n d that o n l y

one case of syphilis had b e e n d e t e c t e d and treated. T h e patient w a s a 71-year-old
w o m a n admitted to the hospital with serious heart trouble. He continued:
Therefore, at $3.50 per A R T , a minimum of $1,050 was spent to detect and treat that
one patient. It is highly questionable whether or not that treatment will have any
effect on her longevity or w e l l - b e i n g ; she probably just got upset at b e i n g told what
it was for.
It therefore s e e m e d wasteful to continue routine screening in this age group,
and such screening was discontinued at this hospital as of January, 1975. It seems
improbable that this m o v e will constitute a major public health hazard or will
substantially affect the health of the individual patients.
W h a t costs a n d b e n e f i t s w e r e c o n s i d e r e d i n this c a s e ?
Problem # 2
S u p p o s e t h a t y o u p u t $500 i n t h e b a n k a t 6 % simple i n t e r e s t . H o w m u c h w i l l
you have in 10 years? H o w m u c h will you have if the interest is compound?
Problem #3
W h a t w o u l d t h e a n s w e r s b e i n p r o b l e m # 2 i f t h e interest rate w e r e 9 % ?
Problem #4
H o w m u c h m o n e y w o u l d you have to have put in the bank 10 years ago to have
$1,000 n o w ? A s s u m e 8 % c o m p o u n d i n t e r e s t .
Problem #5
A s s u m i n g a 1 0 % interest rate, w h a t is t h e future v a l u e 5 years from n o w of
$1,000 i n v e s t e d t o d a y ? W h a t i s t h e f u t u r e v a l u e 5 y e a r s f r o m n o w o f a $1,000
i n v e s t m e n t i f w e i n v e s t $500 o f i t t o d a y and $500 a y e a r f r o m t o d a y ?
Problem #6
Y o u r c o m p a n y has an opportunity to b u y a d u p l i c a t i n g m a c h i n e that w i l l last

t h r o u g h 5 y e a r s o f u s e . I t c o s t s $20,000 a n d w i l l b r i n g i n $5,000 i n b u s i n e s s p a y a b l e
a t t h e e n d o f e a c h y e a r . T a k i n g t h e c o s t s a n d b e n e f i t s into a c c o u n t , w h a t i s t h e
p r e s e n t v a l u e o f t h i s p u r c h a s e ? A s s u m e a 1 0 % i n t e r e s t rate.
Problem # 7 — H a y e s ' Disease
Y o u a r e a p u b l i c h e a l t h o f f i c e r i n y o u r last y e a r a t y o u r p r e s e n t p o s t . A s y o u r
final act, y o u m u s t d e c i d e w h e t h e r o r n o t t o l a u n c h a o n e - s h o t (i.e., o n e t i m e )
i m m u n i z a t i o n c a m p a i g n against a n e w l y d i s c o v e r e d respiratory affliction c a l l e d
" H a y e s ' D i s e a s e . " H a y e s ' D i s e a s e i s u n c o m f o r t a b l e b u t g e n e r a l l y n o t s e r i o u s . Its
most usual s y m p t o m s are fever and c o u g h i n g and temporary h e a r i n g loss, although
sometimes more serious complications occur. H o w e v e r , it is extremely contagious.

I n a n e p i d e m i c y e a r , e s s e n t i a l l y e v e r y s u s c e p t i b l e p e r s o n w i l l c o n t r a c t it. E p i d e m -
ics a r e b e l i e v e d t o o c c u r e v e r y 5 y e a r s . S i n c e t h e d i s e a s e h a s o n l y r e c e n t l y b e e n
r e c o g n i z e d , y o u d o n ' t k n o w w h e n t h e last e p i d e m i c i n y o u r r e g i o n o c c u r r e d .
T o m a k e y o u r d e c i s i o n , y o u a s s e m b l e t h e f o l l o w i n g facts c o n c e r n i n g c o s t s a n d
benefits of the program.
Costs
v a c c i n e $3/patient ( a s s u m e t h a t i t i s 1 0 0 % e f f e c t i v e )
office costs $4/patient
a d v e r t i s i n g for c a m p a i g n $ l / p a t i e n t
Benefits
T h e b e n e f i t s o f t h e p r o g r a m are c a l c u l a t e d f r o m t h e c o s t s w h i c h p a t i e n t s w o u l d
h a v e incurred if t h e y h a d contracted the disease. T h e s e costs are as follows:
65% of patients—no expense

2 5 % — o n e $ 1 5 office visit
5 % c o n t r a c t p n e u m o n i a ; o f t h e s e , 1/20 r e q u i r e $500 h o s p i t a l i z a t i o n , 19/20 r e q u i r e
2 o f f i c e v i s i t s @ $ 1 5 a n d $5 m e d i c a t i o n
5% contract otitis (ear trouble) r e q u i r i n g 2 office visits @ $ 1 5 a n d $5 m e d i c a t i o n
Since y o u don't k n o w w h e n the next e p i d e m i c will occur, these benefits m a y be

r e a l i z e d this y e a r or in a n y of the four f o l l o w i n g years. F o r p u r p o s e s of computation,
y o u a s s u m e that 2 0 % of the benefits w i l l be realized this year and 2 0 % in e a c h of
t h e four f o l l o w i n g y e a r s . Y o u a s s u m e a n interest rate o f 1 0 % t o find the p r e s e n t
v a l u e of the future benefits.
Do a cost-benefit analysis on the basis of these figures to d e c i d e w h e t h e r or not
y o u s h o u l d l a u n c h this c a m p a i g n .
REFERENCES
C o h e n , B . L . " R e l a t i v e R i s k s o f S a c c h a r i n a n d C a l o r i e I n g e s t i o n . " Science, 1 9 9 ( 3 ) ,

983, 1978.
C o m e y , D . D . " H o w W e A l m o s t L o s t A l a b a m a . " Chicago Tribune, A u g u s t 3 1 , 1 9 7 5 .

Federal Register, 4 2 ( 7 3 ) , 1 9 9 9 6 - 2 0 0 0 6 , 1 9 7 7 .
Kirkland, J. Journal of the American Medical Association, 238(5), 399, 1977.
Toxicity and Carcinogenicity Study of Orthotoluenesulfonamide and Saccharin,

Project E405/405D, D e p a r t m e n t of Health and Public Welfare of the Canadian
Government, February, 1974.
Z e c k h a u s e r , R . " P r o c e d u r e s for V a l u i n g L i v e s . " Public Policy, 2 3 , 4 1 9 - 4 6 4 , 1 9 7 5 .

TEN.
C O G N I T I V E PROCESSES IN
CREATIVE A C T S
In the next t w o chapters, we w i l l approach creativity from t w o very different

points of v i e w . In this chapter, we w i l l d e f i n e creativity and discuss four of the
c o g n i t i v e p r o c e s s e s u n d e r l y i n g creative acts: p r o b l e m finding, i d e a generation,
planning, and preparation. In addition, we will describe some procedures which
can increase your p r o b l e m finding and idea generation skills. In the next chapter,
w e w i l l discuss t h e social conditions o f c r e a t i v i t y — t h a t is, w e w i l l d e s c r i b e h o w
society treats p e o p l e differently a c c o r d i n g to their sex, r e l i g i o n , a n d race, a n d h o w
this d i f f e r e n c e i n t r e a t m e n t e n c o u r a g e s o r d i s c o u r a g e s c r e a t i v e a c t i v i t y .
T h e m a i n point that we w a n t to m a k e in both of t h e s e chapters is that y o u can
exercise some control over the cognitive processes and the social conditions w h i c h
i n f l u e n c e y o u r c r e a t i v e abilities. T o this extent, y o u c a n i n c r e a s e y o u r c h a n c e s o f
becoming a creative person.
W H A T IS A CREATIVE A C T ?
C r e a t i v e acts c o m e in a great variety of forms. A creative act m a y be quite

ordinary and i n c o n s e q u e n t i a l — f o r example, it m i g h t be s o m e t h i n g as simple as
m a k i n g up a b e d t i m e story to tell our c h i l d r e n — o r it m a y be w o r l d s h a k i n g — a s w a s
Galileo's invention of the science of physics. A creative act m a y involve years of
concentrated w o r k — c o n s i d e r the decades D a r w i n d e v o t e d to d e v e l o p i n g the evi-
d e n c e for t h e t h e o r y o f e v o l u t i o n — o r i t m a y b e b r i e f — c o n d e n s e d i n t o a s u d d e n
flash o f i n s i g h t — t h e sort o f i n s i g h t t h a t d r o v e A r c h i m e d e s n a k e d f r o m h i s b a t h
shouting, " E u r e k a ! "
W h a t i s t h e r e a b o u t t h e s e v e r y d i f f e r e n t acts t h a t l e a d s u s t o c a l l t h e m all
" c r e a t i v e " ? T y p i c a l l y , w e a p p l y fairly stringent criteria i n j u d g i n g creativity. I n
most cases, we r e q u i r e an act to pass three tests before we call it creative. First, we
m u s t b e l i e v e t h a t t h e a c t i s original. S e c o n d , w e m u s t b e l i e v e t h a t i t i s valuable.
A n d third, it m u s t s u g g e s t to us that the p e r s o n w h o p e r f o r m e d the act has special
m e n t a l abilities. F o r e x a m p l e , w h e n w e s e e w h a t t h e p e r s o n h a s d o n e , w e a s k
o u r s e l v e s , " H o w d i d s h e e v e r t h i n k o f t h a t ? " or, " H o w d i d h e h a v e t h e p a t i e n c e t o
w o r k all t h a t o u t ? "
Let's e x a m i n e t h e s e conditions in order.
Originality
We certainly w o u l d n ' t j u d g e a painter creative w h o simply c o p i e d the pictures

of other painters. To be j u d g e d creative, painters must use their o w n resources to
s h a p e t h e p a i n t i n g . T h e y m u s t p a i n t t h e i r own p i c t u r e s .
We d o n ' t m e a n t h o u g h that e v e r y t h i n g in a c r e a t i v e w o r k m u s t be original.
Painters, writers, and inventors routinely use ideas b o r r o w e d from others.
H o w e v e r , the creative person c o m b i n e s or interprets these b o r r o w e d ideas in w a y s
t h a t a r e o r i g i n a l . R e n a i s s a n c e artists v e r y f r e q u e n t l y p a i n t e d t h e M a d o n n a a n d
C h i l d , b u t e a c h g r e a t artist p r e s e n t e d t h e t h e m e i n a n i n d i v i d u a l w a y .
S o m e t i m e s a person will do something original w h i c h is not n e w . F o r e x a m p l e ,
a scientist m a y m a k e a discovery, quite i n d e p e n d e n t of other p e o p l e , only to find
later that the d i s c o v e r y has b e e n m a d e several times b e f o r e . In our society n e w n e s s
i s i m p o r t a n t . W e a r e v e r y c a r e f u l t o g i v e s p e c i a l c r e d i t t o t h e p e r s o n w h o i s first t o
invent something. Still, we attribute creativity to the scientist a b o v e on the grounds
of originality, e v e n though the discovery is not new.
Value
E v e n if an act is original, we w o n ' t c o n s i d e r it creative unless we also j u d g e it

t o b e v a l u a b l e . S u p p o s e , for e x a m p l e , y o u w e r e t o t u r n all t h e f u r n i t u r e i n y o u r
house upside d o w n . T h a t w o u l d be original, but it w o u l d hardly be valuable. Your
friends w o u l d not ask admiringly, " H o w did y o u think of t h a t ? " Rather, they w o u l d
ask, " W h y d i d y o u think of t h a t ? " and w o r r y a bit a b o u t y o u r m e n t a l health.
Judging w h e t h e r something is valuable or not is tricky. Perfectly reasonable
p e o p l e m a y d i s a g r e e w i t h e a c h other a b o u t the v a l u e , say, o f c o n t e m p o r a r y m u s i c .
Further, opinions c h a n g e o v e r time. In the 1860's, both the critics a n d the p u b l i c
m u c h preferred the painters of the F r e n c h A c a d e m y to the Impressionists. N o w
b o t h critical a n d p o p u l a r j u d g m e n t is reversed. T o d a y the w o r k of Impressionists
such as R e n o i r , D e g a s , and M o n e t is m u c h better k n o w n than that of F r e n c h
A c a d e m y painters such as G r e u z e or Gerome.
If j u d g m e n t s of value can change with time, then j u d g m e n t s of creativity can
c h a n g e , too. An act w h i c h is j u d g e d creative by one generation m a y not s e e m so to
the next.
Abilities
O u r final c o n d i t i o n for j u d g i n g a n a c t c r e a t i v e i s t h a t i t m u s t s u g g e s t t h a t t h e
p e r s o n w h o p e r f o r m e d the act has special m e n t a l abilities. I m a g i n e the f o l l o w i n g
s c e n e : A h o u s e p a i n t e r is r e t o u c h i n g the c e i l i n g in a m u s e u m gallery. Just as he is
a b o u t to finish, his foot slips. He k n o c k s o v e r the ladder, splattering paint every-
w h e r e a n d d o e s a d o u b l e flip into a potted palm. He regains c o n s c i o u s n e s s several
hours later, j u s t i n t i m e t o h e a r m e m b e r s o f the m u s e u m s e l e c t i o n c o m m i t t e e
saying, "Brilliant!!" "A work of genius!" " W h a t freedom of m o v e m e n t ! " Peering
t h r o u g h the p a l m fronds, he sees that t h e y are referring to the aftermath of his
accident on the wall.
N o w , w h i l e the housepainter produced something original and valuable, we
c a n ' t c a l l h i s a c t c r e a t i v e . F a l l i n g off t h e l a d d e r d o e s n ' t i n a n y w a y c a u s e u s t o
admire the housepainter's mental abilities. It only suggests that he may have a
tendency toward clumsiness.
Y o u m i g h t b e i n c l i n e d t o say t h a t t h e h o u s e p a i n t e r ' s a c t w a s n ' t c r e a t i v e b e c a u s e
i t w a s u n i n t e n t i o n a l . Y o u s h o u l d n o t i c e , t h o u g h , t h a t s o m e v e r y c r e a t i v e acts a r e
unintentional. For example, Becquerel's discovery of radioactivity was uninten-
tional. He had no i d e a that u r a n i u m ore w o u l d fog a p h o t o g r a p h i c film. We a d m i r e
Cognitive Processes in Creative Acts 799
B e c q u e r e l for m a k i n g t h e d i s c o v e r y b e c a u s e , w h i l e i t w a s u n i n t e n t i o n a l , h e h a d t h e
w i t t o r e c o g n i z e its s i g n i f i c a n c e .
CREATIVITY A N D IQ
I f c r e a t i v e acts r e q u i r e s p e c i a l m e n t a l a b i l i t i e s , w e m i g h t e x p e c t t h a t c r e a t i v e
p e o p l e h a v e e s p e c i a l l y h i g h I Q ' s . W h i l e creative p e o p l e d o h a v e h i g h e r than aver-
age IQ's, the relation b e t w e e n creativity and IQ is complex. T h e simplest w a y to
s u m m a r i z e it is to say that p e o p l e w i t h b e l o w a v e r a g e I Q ' s t e n d not to be creative.
H o w e v e r , if we look just at p e o p l e a b o v e a certain IQ l e v e l , s u c h as 120, then there
is v e r y little relation b e t w e e n creativity a n d I Q . It is as if there is a certain m i n i m u m
I Q r e q u i r e d for c r e a t i v i t y , after w h i c h I Q d o e s n ' t m a t t e r .
An alternative v i e w (see H a y e s , 1978) is that IQ has n o t h i n g to do w i t h creative
a b i l i t y , a n d t h a t t h e r e a s o n p e o p l e w i t h l o w I Q ' s are n o t c r e a t i v e l y p r o d u c t i v e i s that
they aren't g i v e n the opportunity. IQ does predict h o w w e l l a person will do in
school. P e o p l e w h o d o p o o r l y i n school m a y h a v e difficulty getting into good
schools and getting g o o d jobs in w h i c h there is a c h a n c e to be creative. T h u s , our
s o c i e t y m a y a c t u a l l y prevent p e o p l e w i t h l o w I Q ' s f r o m b e i n g c r e a t i v e .
T h e important p o i n t a b o u t creativity and I Q that y o u s h o u l d u n d e r s t a n d i s this:
Y o u shouldn't g i v e up on y o u r s e l f as a creative person just b e c a u s e y o u r IQ is not
outstanding. For example, the IQ's of such famous people as Copernicus, Rem-
brandt, and Faraday have b e e n estimated at 110 or less!
CREATIVITY A N D ILL-DEFINED PROBLEMS
In d i s c u s s i n g the nature of a creative act, we w i l l f o l l o w the l e a d of N e w e l l ,

S h a w , a n d S i m o n (1964). T h e s e authors p r o p o s e d that a creative act is a special kind
of p r o b l e m solving, that it is the act of s o l v i n g an ill-defined p r o b l e m .
In Chapter 1, we defined ill-defined problems as ones w h i c h require problem
s o l v e r s t o c o n t r i b u t e t o t h e d e f i n i t i o n o f t h e p r o b l e m f r o m t h e i r own r e s o u r c e s . T o
solve an ill-defined problem, y o u may be required either to make decisions based
o n y o u r o w n k n o w l e d g e a n d v a l u e s ( g a p - f i l l i n g d e c i s i o n s ) o r t o d i s c o v e r n e w infor-
mation t h r o u g h y o u r o w n active exploration o f t h e p r o b l e m (jumping in), o r both.
Y o u r s o l u t i o n s t o i l l - d e f i n e d p r o b l e m s a r e v e r y m u c h your s o l u t i o n s . T h e y
d e p e n d on your k n o w l e d g e and your values. Other p e o p l e w o u l d almost certainly
h a v e a r r i v e d a t d i f f e r e n t s o l u t i o n s b e c a u s e t h e i r k n o w l e d g e a n d v a l u e s d i f f e r from
yours. It is just b e c a u s e we put our o w n k n o w l e d g e and v a l u e s into the solution of
ill-defined p r o b l e m s that it is possible to solve t h e m creatively. It is by d r a w i n g on
private r e s o u r c e s — d i f f e r e n t in e a c h person and largely h i d d e n from the outside
v i e w e r — t h a t w e are a b l e t o p r o d u c e solutions w h i c h d a z z l e a n d astound.
C O G N I T I V E PROCESSES U N D E R L Y I N G CREATIVE A C T S
C r e a t i v e acts d e p e n d o n a g r e a t m a n y o f o u r c o g n i t i v e p r o c e s s e s w o r k i n g
together in h a r m o n y — p r o c e s s e s of representation, search, memory, and decision
making. W e w i l l focus o n just four o f t h e s e p r o c e s s e s w h i c h are e s p e c i a l l y important
for c r e a t i v i t y : p r o b l e m f i n d i n g , i d e a g e n e r a t i o n , p l a n n i n g , a n d p r e p a r a t i o n .
Problem Finding
M a n y p r o b l e m s c o m e t o u s w i t h n e a t l a b e l s w h i c h say i n effect, " S o l v e m e . I'm

a p r o b l e m ! " P r o b l e m s i n e x a m s , I Q t e s t s , a n d p u z z l e b o o k s a r e l i k e that. W h e n w e
o p e n a n e x a m b o o k l e t , w e are l i k e l y t o f i n d l a b e l s s u c h a s " Q u e s t i o n # 1 " o r
" P r o b l e m 3 . " W h e t h e r w e can solve the p r o b l e m s o r not, w e have n o trouble
finding them.
S o m e p r o b l e m s aren't as neatly l a b e l e d , though. T h e r e is a special class of

ill-defined problems in w h i c h what we have to contribute to the definition of the
p r o b l e m is t h e d i s c o v e r y that t h e r e is a p r o b l e m .
H e r e is an u n c o m p l i c a t e d e x a m p l e in w h i c h I d i s c o v e r e d a problem: O v e r the
years, I have searched through the theater pages of the n e w s p a p e r hundreds of
times to find w h a t w a s p l a y i n g at my local theater. On the average, the search
i n v o l v e d e x a m i n i n g about half of the ads before finding the one I wanted. W h i l e
this w a s a m i n o r a n n o y a n c e , until r e c e n t l y I h a d n ' t s e e n it as a p r o b l e m — t h a t is,
a s a d i f f i c u l t y for w h i c h o n e c o u l d f i n d a s e n s i b l e s o l u t i o n . W h e n I d i d s e e i t a s a
p r o b l e m — w h e n I finally said to myself, " S o m e t h i n g c o u l d be d o n e about t h a t " — i t
w a s e a s y e n o u g h to think of solutions, e.g., standardize the positions of the ads or
a l p h a b e t i z e t h e m . F i n d i n g this p r o b l e m w a s a great deal m o r e difficult than finding
m e t h o d s for its s o l u t i o n .
PROBLEM F I N D I N G A N D CREATIVITY
T h e p r o c e s s o f p r o b l e m f i n d i n g p l a y s a v e r y i m p o r t a n t r o l e b o t h i n artistic a n d
i n s c i e n t i f i c c r e a t i v i t y . F o r e x a m p l e , i n t h e e a r l y 1 9 0 0 ' s , a g r o u p o f A m e r i c a n artists
called the "ashcan school" discovered esthetic values in the everyday appearance
of the c i t y — p e o p l e s h o p p i n g or crossing at an intersection. T h e y took it as their
p r o b l e m to capture t h e s e v a l u e s in their paintings. No o n e told t h e m to do this. In
fact, a h o r r i f i e d a r t i s t i c e s t a b l i s h m e n t t o l d t h e m n o t to. T h e y h a d t o d i s c o v e r t h e i r
artistic p r o b l e m for t h e m s e l v e s .
P r o b l e m finding is important in scientific discovery as w e l l . Einstein and
Infeld (1938) c o m m e n t :
G a l i l e o formulated the problem of determining the velocity of light, but did not
solve it. T h e formulation of a problem is often more essential than its solution, w h i c h
may be m e r e l y a matter of mathematical or experimental skill. To raise n e w ques-
tions, n e w possibilities, to regard old problems from a n e w angle, requires creative
imagination and marks real advance in science. (p. 95)
H e r e are three cases in point.
Case 1
In the h e y d a y of the telegraph, h u n d r e d s of operators listened to the dots and

dashes of the M o r s e ticker and transcribed t h e m into w o r d s on paper. W h e n the
c o n n e c t i o n w a s bad, the m e s s a g e s w e r e hard to hear. M o s t s i m p l y s h r u g g e d their
shoulders a n d d i d the b e s t t h e y c o u l d in a difficult situation. E d i s o n d i s t i n g u i s h e d
h i m s e l f from the others by s e e i n g the difficulty as a p r o b l e m to be solved. He
s o l v e d it by constructing a d e v i c e w h i c h w o u l d record the dots and dashes as visible
marks on a rotating disk. W h e n the d e v i c e was c o m p l e t e , h o w e v e r , others didn't
n e c e s s a r i l y s e e i t a s t h e s o l u t i o n t o a p r o b l e m . E d i s o n ' s e m p l o y e r s , for e x a m p l e ,
thought that r e a d i n g from a disk rather than listening to the ticker w a s a c o m p l e t e
waste of time.
T h e pattern of e v e n t s that l e d to E d i s o n ' s invention has b e e n repeated in a
n u m b e r o f s c i e n t i f i c d i s c o v e r i e s . W h a t m a n y h a d o b s e r v e d a n d d i s m i s s e d a s a trivial
annoyance, one person recognized as an important problem to be solved.
Case 2
As many bacteriologists do, Alexander Fleming was growing colonies of bacte-

ria o n sterile agar plates. A n a c c i d e n t , s u c h a s m u s t h a v e h a p p e n e d t h o u s a n d s o f
times in other laboratories, contaminated some of the plates w i t h dust. T h e bacteria
F l e m i n g w a s trying to grow died in the neighborhood of the dust specks. Rather
t h a n t h r o w i n g t h e p l a t e s o u t a s " s p o i l e d , " F l e m i n g s a w t h a t t h e y p o s e d a n interest^

i n g p r o b l e m — " W h y d i d the bacteria d i e ? " T h e a n s w e r w a s that the dust contained
the mold w h i c h produces P e n i c i l l i n — a substance w h o s e existence was unknown
at that t i m e . T h u s a major m e d i c a l d i s c o v e r y d e p e n d e d on s o m e o n e s e e i n g a
p r o b l e m in s o m e s p o i l e d agar plates.
Case 3
As a part of a study of digestion, the physiologist, Ivan Pavlov, investigated the

salivary reflex in dogs. D o g s salivate automatically w h e n food is put into their
m o u t h s . T h e e x p e r i m e n t s w e n t w e l l a t first, b u t t h e n t o P a v l o v ' s s u r p r i s e , t h e d o g s
b e g a n to salivate b e f o r e t h e y h a d any food in their m o u t h s at all. He found that they
w o u l d salivate at the sight or s o u n d of the food d i s h e s or to a n y other signal that had
frequently b e e n associated with feeding. T h e s e developments seriously compli-
cated Pavlov's e x p e r i m e n t s . But, rather than s e e i n g t h e m s i m p l y as an annoyance,
a s most w o u l d h a v e d o n e , h e s a w that t h e y r e v e a l e d a n important p r o b l e m — " W h a t
was the nature of these anticipatory r e s p o n s e s ? " Pavlov r e c e i v e d s t e m warning
from his c o l l e a g u e s that h e w o u l d b e risking his v e r y p r o m i s i n g c a r e e r i n p h y s i o l -
ogy if he p u r s u e d these "unscientific" psychological interests. Fortunately, Pavlov
had the courage to ignore these warnings and to continue to work on the problem
he had discovered. T h i s work on conditioned reflexes earned him the N o b e l prize.
I M P R O V I N G Y O U R P R O B L E M - F I N D I N G SKILLS
T h e three p r o c e d u r e s we are about to d e s c r i b e are not l i k e l y to earn y o u a

N o b e l p r i z e , b u t t h e y c a n h e l p t o m a k e y o u a b e t t e r p r o b l e m f i n d e r . T h e first i s
i n t e n d e d a s a n a i d t o a s p i r i n g i n v e n t o r s . T h e s e c o n d a n d t h i r d are critical thinking
t e c h n i q u e s , t h a t i s , t e c h n i q u e s for f i n d i n g f l a w s i n a r g u m e n t s . C r i t i c a l t h i n k i n g
s k i l l s a r e i m p o r t a n t for c r e a t i v i t y b e c a u s e d e t e c t i n g a f l a w i n a n a c c e p t e d t h e o r y c a n
b e a v e r y p o w e r f u l s o u r c e o f i n s p i r a t i o n for c r e a t i n g a n e w t h e o r y . C r i t i c a l t h i n k i n g
skills are also v e r y useful in s u c h m u n d a n e activities as d e f e n d i n g o u r s e l v e s against
politicians and e n c y c l o p e d i a salesmen.
Bug Listing
B u g listing is a t e c h n i q u e that A d a m s (1974) r e c o m m e n d s to h e l p inventors find

promising p r o b l e m s to w o r k on. T h e basic idea is that things w h i c h bother y o u ,
such as ice cream c o n e s that drip or typewriters that w o n ' t spell, p r o b a b l y bother
other p e o p l e as w e l l . An invention created to solve one of y o u r b u g s c o u l d have a
w i d e market.
A b u g l i s t i s s i m p l y a l i s t o f t h i n g s t h a t b o t h e r y o u . T o m a k e a b u g list, y o u
s h o u l d carry a n o t e b o o k w i t h y o u s o t h a t y o u c a n r e c o r d t h e b u g s w h e n y o u n o t i c e
t h e m . ( B u g s are o f t e n s o c o m m o n p l a c e t h a t t h e y a r e h a r d t o r e m e m b e r . ) H e r e i s a
representative b u g list:
1. r e m e m b e r i n g to mail letters
2. taking out the trash
3. fastening seatbelts
4. putting tops b a c k on toothpaste, k e t c h u p , etc.
5. changing the cat b o x
6. washing dishes
7. making my b e d
8. k e e p i n g clean and dirty laundry separate
9. t u r n i n g off l i g h t s
10. s l i d i n g doors that stick
11. cupboard doors that don't close

12. crumbs on the table, counter, and floor
13. c a t fur
14. p e o p l e w i t h dirty ears
15. hanging up my coat
16. restaurants w i t h d i m lights that m a k e y o u r e y e s go b u g g y
17. p l a c e s that are c r o w d e d
18. stupid teachers
19. p e o p l e i n p a n t s t h a t are t o o t i g h t
20. shorts that are too short
21. m e n w h o w e a r t h e i r shirts o p e n t o t h e n a v e l
22. music in supermarkets
23. fight songs
24. stupid radio and television personalities
25. sour milk
26. sunburn
27. tangled hair
28. razor stubble
29. dirty glasses
30. dirt u n d e r contact l e n s e s
31. food that drips on y o u r clothes (like tacos)
32. getting teeth c l e a n e d at the dentist
33. dark nail polish
34. dirty fingernails
35. r e g i s t e r i n g for c l a s s e s
36. drying my hair
37. humid days
38. crying babies
39. dripping faucets
40. passport photos
E a c h of these b u g s can be v i e w e d as a problem to be solved, and as the

potential source of a useful invention.
SEARCHING FOR COUNTEREXAMPLES
The Employment Argument
T h i s a r g u m e n t is not v e r y popular today, b u t it w a s w i d e l y a c c e p t e d in the '50's.

" W h e n a c o m p a n y is filling a job, it should hire m e n in preference to w o m e n ,
because m e n have to support families."
A c o m m o n w a y for p e o p l e t o t e s t a n a r g u m e n t i s t o s e a r c h for p o s i t i v e i n s t a n c e s
(Wason, 1 9 6 8 ) — t h a t is, to think of a case in w h i c h the a r g u m e n t s e e m s right. F o r
e x a m p l e , a p e r s o n m i g h t say, " W e l l , if a m a n is supporting a w i f e a n d three kids, it
i s m o r e i m p o r t a n t for h i m t o h a v e a j o b t h a n for a s i n g l e w o m a n t o h a v e o n e . "
H a v i n g found a positive instance, m a n y stop their search and accept the argument.
W h i l e s e a r c h i n g for p o s i t i v e i n s t a n c e s i s a v e r y c o m m o n t e c h n i q u e , i t i s , unfor-
tunately, a v e r y uncritical o n e . It ignores cases in w h i c h t h e a r g u m e n t is false. A
m u c h m o r e critical approach to testing arguments is o n e w i d e l y u s e d by philos-
o p h e r s a n d m a t h e m a t i c i a n s — s e a r c h i n g for c o u n t e r e x a m p l e s . A c o u n t e r e x a m p l e i s
a c a s e i n w h i c h t h e a r g u m e n t w e are t e s t i n g i s f a l s e . A p e r s o n s e a r c h i n g for a
c o u n t e r e x a m p l e to t h e e m p l o y m e n t a r g u m e n t m i g h t say, " W e l l , a w o m a n w h o is
supporting h e r c r i p p l e d h u s b a n d certainly d e s e r v e s to h a v e a j o b as m u c h as a
b a c h e l o r d o e s . " C l e a r l y , we are m u c h less likely to a c c e p t a faulty a r g u m e n t if we
t e s t i t b y s e a r c h i n g for c o u n t e r e x a m p l e s . H e r e i s a n o t h e r c a s e .
The Pre-cognition A r g u m e n t
S o m e claim that certain p e o p l e can have accurate k n o w l e d g e of events before

they happen.
Positive Instance: " Y e a h ! L a s t w e e k m y aunt d r e a m t that s o m e t h i n g good w a s

going to h a p p e n to me and today I w o n the lottery!"
Counterexample: " S u r e , b u t t w o w e e k s ago, she d r e a m t that y o u r turtle was
going to have puppies."
S e a r c h i n g for c o u n t e r e x a m p l e s i s o n l y o n e o f m a n y t e c h n i q u e s w h i c h p h i l o s -
o p h e r s h a v e d e v e l o p e d for d e t e c t i n g p r o b l e m s i n a r g u m e n t s . A n i n t e r e s t i n g a n d
highly readable introduction to some of these techniques is provided by Thomas
S c h w a r t z in h i s b o o k , The Art of Logical Reasoning ( 1 9 8 0 ) .
SEARCHING FOR ALTERNATIVE INTERPRETATIONS
O u r s e c o n d t e c h n i q u e for f i n d i n g p r o b l e m s i n a r g u m e n t s b o r r o w s f r o m t h e
c r i t i c a l s p i r i t o f s c i e n t i f i c r e s e a r c h . I t i s t h e t e c h n i q u e o f s e a r c h i n g for a l t e r n a t i v e
interpretations.
Case 1: Singing the Baby to Flab
S u p p o s e t h a t s o m e o n e t r i e d t o c o n v i n c e u s that s i n g i n g t o c h i l d r e n m a k e s t h e m
g r o w . T h e y tell u s that t h e y h a v e systematically o b s e r v e d 2 0 k i n d e r g a r t e n c h i l d r e n
w h o s e mothers sing to t h e m e v e r y day, and that o v e r a p e r i o d of e i g h t m o n t h s , these
c h i l d r e n g a i n e d a n a v e r a g e o f four p o u n d s .
F o r t u n a t e l y , t h e m a i n p r o b l e m i n t h i s a r g u m e n t i s e a s y t o f i n d . W e k n o w that
kindergarten c h i l d r e n are g r o w i n g rapidly, so we can readily formulate an alternate
interpretation o f the data. T h o s e c h i l d r e n m i g h t h a v e g a i n e d four p o u n d s e v e n i f
t h e y hadn't b e e n s u n g to.
T h e p r o b l e m w i t h t h e a r g u m e n t i s t h a t t h e o b s e r v a t i o n s d o n o t i n c l u d e control
m e a s u r e m e n t s , for e x a m p l e , w e i g h t g a i n s o f 2 0 k i n d e r g a r t e n c h i l d r e n w h o s e
m o t h e r s d o not s i n g t o t h e m . W e w o u l d b e m u c h m o r e i n c l i n e d t o a c c e p t t h e
a r g u m e n t i f t h e c h i l d r e n w h o w e r e s u n g t o g a i n e d more t h a n t h e c h i l d r e n w h o w e r e
not.
Case 2: Hypnotizing Chickens
O n c e , in my w a s t e d y o u t h , I ran across an e n t e r p r i s i n g s a l e s m a n w h o w a s selling

a d e v i c e for h y p n o t i z i n g c h i c k e n s . I n d e e d , t h e d e v i c e w a s i m p r e s s i v e . T h e s a l e s -
m a n h e l d a c h i c k e n d o w n o n a t a b l e a n d p l a c e d t h e d e v i c e , w h i c h e m i t t e d a soft
b u z z i n g , next to the c h i c k e n ' s h e a d . W h e n he r e l e a s e d the c h i c k e n , it just lay there
a n d s t a r e d a s i f all a c t i v e c h i c k e n t h o u g h t s h a d b e e n c h a s e d f r o m its h e a d . I t w a s
c o m p l e t e l y g o r k e d o u t . T h e n , after 3 0 s e c o n d s o f c o m p l e t e i m m o b i l i t y , i t s u d d e n l y
s c r a m b l e d u p a n d r a n off.
O n e can easily u n d e r s t a n d that m a n y p e o p l e , p e r h a p s e v e n the salesman him-
self, w o u l d b e c o n v i n c e d o f t h e e f f i c a c y o f t h e d e v i c e — s o m e t o t h e e x t e n t o f b u y i n g
one.
I wasn't c o n v i n c e d , h o w e v e r , b e c a u s e I had an alternative interpretation of the
demonstration. F o r no g o o d reason, at that t i m e , I w a s the local e x p e r t on " a n i m a l
h y p n o s i s . " I k n e w that various a n i m a l s — g u i n e a p i g s , snakes, alligators, and y e s ,
chickens, c o u l d be " h y p n o t i z e d " simply by putting t h e m into certain postures. In
p a r t i c u l a r , a c h i c k e n c a n b e h y p n o t i z e d b y h o l d i n g its h e a d d o w n o n a t a b l e for a
few s e c o n d s . M y alternative interpretation w a s that w h a t w e w e r e s e e i n g w a s just
a n o t h e r c a s e o f a n i m a l h y p n o s i s a n d that a c o n t r o l o b s e r v a t i o n i n w h i c h t h e
c h i c k e n ' s h e a d w a s h e l d o n t h e t a b l e without t h e b u z z e r w o u l d h a v e p r o d u c e d t h e
s a m e r e s u l t , i.e., a g o r k e d - o u t c h i c k e n .
Case I Revisited: Singing to Children
S u p p o s e that the person s t u d y i n g singing and w e i g h t gain had m a d e the control

o b s e r v a t i o n w e s u g g e s t e d a b o v e . S u p p o s e that t h e y h a d f o u n d t h a t c h i l d r e n
of mothers w h o sing to them gain t w o pounds more on the average than children of
mothers w h o d o not. W o u l d w e t h e n b e forced t o a c c e p t the a r g u m e n t that singing
t o c h i l d r e n m a k e s t h e m g r o w ? T h e a n s w e r i s " N o . " T h e a r g u m e n t still h a s p r o b -
lems as we can see by considering some alternative interpretations. Perhaps there
w e r e o t h e r d i f f e r e n c e s b e t w e e n t h e t w o g r o u p s o f m o t h e r s . P e r h a p s i f w e inter-
v i e w e d the m o t h e r s , the non-singers w o u l d say, " S i n g to my k i d ? H e l l , I d o n ' t e v e n
f e e d ' m ! " , w h i l e the singers insist that a healthy child n e e d s at least n i n e meals a
day.
C l e a r l y , s e a r c h i n g for a l t e r n a t e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s c a n h e l p u s t o f i n d p r o b l e m s i n
persuasive arguments.
Summary
I n s o m e c a s e s f i n d i n g a p r o b l e m i s t h e m o s t d i f f i c u l t p a r t o f s o l v i n g it. M a n y
d i s c o v e r i e s d e p e n d on finding a p r o b l e m that others h a v e i g n o r e d . We f r e q u e n t l y
h e a r p e r s u a s i v e a r g u m e n t s t h a t h a v e p r o b l e m s h i d d e n i n t h e m . I f w e fail t o f i n d t h e
p r o b l e m s , we are l i k e l y to be p e r s u a d e d of s o m e t h i n g that is false. By asking the
f o l l o w i n g three questions, we can increase our c h a n c e s of finding such problems:
1. C a n I t h i n k of a c o u n t e r e x a m p l e ?
2. H a v e appropriate control measurements b e e n m a d e ?
3. A r e there alternate interpretations of the result?
Exercises
1. D e s i g n a study of s i n g i n g and w e i g h t gain that w o u l d a v o i d the p r o b l e m s we

found above.
2. W h a t p r o b l e m s can y o u find in the following arguments?
a. N i n e out of 10 doctors i n t e r v i e w e d said that t h e y p r e s c r i b e our brand in
p r e f e r e n c e t o all o t h e r s . B u y o u r b r a n d .
b . I n c l i n i c a l t e s t s , e i g h t o u t o f 1 0 f e l t r e l i e f w i t h i n 1 0 m i n u t e s after u s i n g
o u r b r a n d . B u y it.
c. F o u r l e a d i n g pain relievers contain 650 mg of aspirin p e r tablet, but our
b r a n d c o n t a i n s 800 m g . B u y o u r b r a n d .
GENERATING IDEAS
M a n y of the difficulties in creative p r o b l e m solving arise not in finding the

p r o b l e m b u t i n g e n e r a t i n g i d e a s for a s o l u t i o n . W h e n f a c e d w i t h a p r o b l e m l i k e T h e
L o s e r ( R e m e m b e r the m a n w h o a l w a y s lost a t g a m b l i n g b e c a u s e the fortune teller
c a s t a s p e l l o n h i m ? ) , s o m e p e o p l e are t e r r i f i c a t t h i n k i n g u p i d e a s a n d s o m e are
t e r r i b l e . T h i s s e c t i o n i s d e s i g n e d for p e o p l e w h o h a v e t r o u b l e g e n e r a t i n g i d e a s .
M a n y methods h a v e b e e n proposed to help m a k e ideas flow. We will discuss
just two:
1. b r a i n s t o r m i n g , a n d
2. finding analogies.
Brainstorming
Brainstorming is a t e c h n i q u e d e v e l o p e d by Alex Osborn, an executive of a

m a j o r N e w Y o r k a d v e r t i s i n g firm, a n d first d e s c r i b e d i n h i s b o o k , Your Creative
Power ( 1 9 4 8 ) . I t i s d e s i g n e d t o i n c r e a s e t h e f l o w o f i d e a s i n s m a l l g r o u p m e e t i n g s .
T h e m o s t important principle u n d e r l y i n g brainstorming is that the process of gen-

erating i d e a s is c o m p l e t e l y s e p a r a t e d from the p r o c e s s of e v a l u a t i n g t h e m .
B r a i n s t o r m i n g s e s s i o n s t a k e p l a c e i n t w o p h a s e s — a n idea generation p h a s e a n d a n
idea evaluation p h a s e . D u r i n g t h e i d e a g e n e r a t i o n p h a s e , all j u d g i n g a n d c r i t i c i s m
of the p r o d u c e d ideas is e l i m i n a t e d — o r rather d e f e r r e d — u n t i l the evaluation
phase.
In most c o n f e r e n c e s , such as t o w n m e e t i n g s and informal p l a n n i n g sessions,
t h e s t a n d a r d f o r m a t i s d e b a t e , t h a t is, p r o p o s a l a n d c r i t i c i s m . T h i s f o r m a t i s n o t
notably successful in producing n e w ideas. Typically in such sessions, each n e w
i d e a is m e t w i t h a w e l t e r of criticism. B r a i n s t o r m i n g is q u i t e different from most
m e e t i n g situations.
During the idea generation phase:
1. All criticism of ideas is w i t h h e l d until the evaluation phase.

2. W i l d or e v e n silly ideas are w e l c o m e d .
3. Quantity of ideas is encouraged.
4. Participants are e n c o u r a g e d to c o m b i n e or i m p r o v e on ideas already sug-
gested.
5. T h e g r o u p acts as a w h o l e , not b r e a k i n g up into several small groups.
6 . O n e p e r s o n acts a s a s e c r e t a r y t o r e c o r d t h e l i s t o f i d e a s .
A b r a i n s t o r m i n g g r o u p n e e d s a l e a d e r w h o w i l l e n f o r c e t h e r u l e s . T h e first a n d
most important task of the l e a d e r is to be sure that criticism is w i t h h e l d . T h e r e
seems to be a strong t e n d e n c y in m a n y p e o p l e to respond to an idea by saying, " O h ,
that w o n ' t w o r k b e c a u s e " An idea w h i c h is proposed as a j o k e m a y not be useful
in itself as a solution of the problem, and yet it may aid the solution by suggesting
a n e w dimension of the problem or by opening a n e w line of inquiry.
I n a t y p i c a l b r a i n s t o r m i n g s e s s i o n , t h e m e m b e r s o f t h e g r o u p are a l l o w e d t o
p r o p o s e ideas w h e n e v e r t h e y p l e a s e . T h e possibility exists in this situation that one
or a f e w of the g r o u p m e m b e r s w i l l d o m i n a t e the session, w i t h the result that others
m a y b e p r e v e n t e d f r o m c o n t r i b u t i n g all t h a t t h e y c o u l d . T o e l i m i n a t e t h i s p o s s i b i l -
ity, B o u c h a r d ( 1 9 7 2 ) h a s m o d i f i e d t h e t y p i c a l b r a i n s t o r m i n g p r o c e d u r e b y a d d i n g a
s e q u e n c i n g rule in w h i c h the m e m b e r s of the group take turns in offering ideas. He
reported that groups u s i n g the s e q u e n c i n g rule p r o d u c e d more ideas than groups
t h a t d i d n o t u s e it.
If the group b e g i n s to run out of ideas during the idea-generating phase, it
s o m e t i m e s h e l p s t o r e v i e w t h e list o f i d e a s a l r e a d y s u g g e s t e d . W h e n t h e g r o u p ' s
ideas have b e e n exhausted, it is time to m o v e to the evaluation phase.
In the evaluation phase, each idea is r e v i e w e d critically to d e t e r m i n e if it is in
fact a p r a c t i c a l s o l u t i o n . A l i s t o f t h e i d e a s t h a t t h e g r o u p c o n s i d e r s m o s t p r a c t i c a l
is then submitted as the group's problem-solving recommendations.
O s b o r n f e e l s t h a t b r a i n s t o r m i n g i s h e l p f u l i n p r o d u c i n g n e w i d e a s for t w o
reasons. First, the reduction in criticism during the generation phase allows ideas
to be born and d e v e l o p e d that otherwise m i g h t n e v e r h a v e b e e n suggested, or
might have b e e n rejected before they had r e c e i v e d sufficient positive considera-
tion. S e c o n d , O s b o r n f e e l s t h a t b r a i n s t o r m i n g s e s s i o n s p r o m o t e a k i n d o f s o c i a l
c o n t a g i o n i n w h i c h o n e p e r s o n ' s i d e a i n s p i r e s a b e t t e r i d e a i n a n o t h e r — a n i d e a that
the second person w o u l d n ' t have thought of otherwise.
Studies r e v i e w e d b y Stein (1975) indicate that g r o u p s u s i n g the brainstorming
t e c h n i q u e do p r o d u c e more ideas than groups that generate and evaluate ideas
simultaneously. Further, m o s t of t h e s e studies also s h o w that the brainstorming
groups p r o d u c e more high-quality ideas.
W e s h o u l d n o t e t h a t O s b o r n r e c o m m e n d s b r a i n s t o r m i n g o n l y for c e r t a i n t y p e s
of "simple and talkable" p r o b l e m s — p r o b l e m s like, " H o w can we prevent stealing
from the l i b r a r y ? " and, " H o w can w e g e t m o r e foreign visitors t o Come t o the U n i t e d
S t a t e s ? " I n d e e d , research on group p r o b l e m solving suggests that groups do better
t h a n i n d i v i d u a l s o n s o m e k i n d s o f p r o b l e m s b u t n o t o n o t h e r s . I n d i v i d u a l s are a s
g o o d or b e t t e r than g r o u p s in s o l v i n g arithmetic p r o b l e m s ( H u d g i n s , 1960), and in
s o l v i n g p r o b l e m s w h e r e e a c h i n d i v i d u a l h a s all t h e n e c e s s a r y i n f o r m a t i o n . G r o u p s
are s u p e r i o r to i n d i v i d u a l s in tasks w h e r e the p o o l i n g of skills a n d information is
i m p o r t a n t . F o r e x a m p l e , g r o u p s are s u p e r i o r t o i n d i v i d u a l s for r e m e m b e r i n g a
c o m p l e x s t o r y ( P e r l m u t t e r , 1 9 5 3 ) , a n d for s o l v i n g p r e j u d i c e - p r o v o k i n g s y l l o g i s m s
(Barnlund, 1959). B a r n l u n d suggests that the g r o u p is m o r e o b j e c t i v e than the
individual b e c a u s e prejudices are not c o m p l e t e l y shared a m o n g the m e m b e r s of the
group.
Exercise
F o r m a g r o u p and c o n d u c t a brainstorming session. S u g g e s t e d topics are:
• w a y s to save time
• w a y s to k e e p the city clean
• u s e s for d i s c a r d e d s t y r o f o a m c u p s
Individual Brainstorming
W h i l e the brainstorming t e c h n i q u e w a s d e s i g n e d to be u s e d w i t h groups, it can

also be u s e d by a single person in private idea-generating sessions. T h e principles
t o b e a p p l i e d a r e t h e s a m e . S e p a r a t e i d e a g e n e r a t i o n f r o m e v a l u a t i o n . Start w i t h t h e
idea generation phase, writing d o w n ideas as they occur, w i t h o u t criticism. Y o u
s h o u l d w e l c o m e w i l d o r s i l l y i d e a s , a n d y o u s h o u l d try t o c o m b i n e o r i m p r o v e i d e a s
that w e r e g e n e r a t e d earlier. T h e hard part in this p h a s e is to control y o u r internal
e d i t o r — t h e i n t e r n a l v o i c e o f c r i t i c i s m w h i c h m a y l e a d y o u t o i g n o r e a n i d e a that
s e e m s too d u m b or trivial.
Just a s w i t h g r o u p b r a i n s t o r m i n g , w h e n y o u b e g i n t o r u n o u t o f i d e a s , y o u c a n
r e v i e w t h e list a s a s o u r c e t o s t i m u l a t e f u r t h e r p r o d u c t i o n . W h e n t h e i d e a s r e a l l y
have stopped coming, it is time to m o v e on to the evaluation phase. Here you
r e v i e w e a c h i d e a t o s e l e c t t h o s e t h a t s e e m b e s t for s o l v i n g t h e p r o b l e m .
Exercise
C o n d u c t a brainstorming session by yourself. S u g g e s t e d topics:
• h o w to increase your o w n efficiency

• h o w to m a k e your favorite annoyance less a n n o y i n g
• h o w to p e r s u a d e s o m e o n e to g i v e y o u a j o b
I n d i v i d u a l brainstorming sessions can b e v e r y helpful w h e n y o u are w r i t i n g

(see F l o w e r , 1980). S u p p o s e that y o u are p l a n n i n g a m a g a z i n e article on architec-
t u r e for a t e e n a g e a u d i e n c e . T o b r a i n s t o r m , first g e n e r a t e all o f t h e i d e a s y o u c a n
think of that a t e e n a g e r m i g h t find interesting or important a b o u t architecture. As
y o u d o t h i s , s c r a t c h d o w n r a p i d n o t e s i n t h e f o r m o f s c a t t e r e d w o r d s a n d p h r a s e s that
will r e m i n d y o u of the ideas. W h e n idea generation is c o m p l e t e , evaluate the
i d e a s — t h a t is, d e c i d e w h i c h ideas y o u w a n t t o i n c l u d e i n y o u r a r t i c l e — a n d then
o r g a n i z e t h e m into an outline. At this point, y o u are w e l l started in p r o d u c i n g your
article.
DISCOVERING ANALOGIES
A n a l o g i e s a r e a n i m p o r t a n t s o u r c e o f i d e a s w h e n w e a r e s e a r c h i n g for p r o b l e m
s o l u t i o n s . S e v e r a l s y s t e m s h a v e b e e n p r o p o s e d for s t i m u l a t i n g t h e f o r m a t i o n o f
u s e f u l a n a l o g i e s . I n e s s e n c e , all o f t h e s e s y s t e m s e m p l o y s o m e c h e c k l i s t o f a n a l o g y
types. T h e user of the system works through the checklist a n d tries to find analogies
of each type.
I n G o r d o n ' s s y n e c t i c s s y s t e m ( G o r d o n , 1 9 6 1 ) , t h e c h e c k l i s t c o n s i s t s o f four
a n a l o g y t y p e s : p e r s o n a l , direct, s y m b o l i c , a n d fantasy. S u p p o s e that w e w e r e
m e m b e r s o f a s y n e c t i c s g r o u p l o o k i n g for i d e a s t o i m p r o v e a u t o m o b i l e b r a k e s . F i r s t ,
w e w o u l d try t o f o r m p e r s o n a l a n a l o g i e s i n w h i c h w e p u t o u r s e l v e s d i r e c t l y i n t o t h e
p r o b l e m s i t u a t i o n . F o r e x a m p l e , w e c o u l d i m a g i n e o u r s e l v e s a s t h e b r a k e s o f a car.
N e x t , w e w o u l d s e a r c h for a d i r e c t a n a l o g y i f t h e s a m e f u n c t i o n i s a c c o m p l i s h e d i n
s o m e o t h e r s e t t i n g , s u c h a s a c a t t r y i n g t o s t o p o n a s l i p p e r y floor. T h i r d , w e w o u l d
try t o f o r m s y m b o l i c a n a l o g i e s . I w o u l d t e l l y o u a b o u t t h i s k i n d o f a n a l o g y i f I c o u l d ,
b u t u n f o r t u n a t e l y , I h a v e b e e n u n a b l e t o f i n d a n i n t e l l i g i b l e d e s c r i p t i o n o f it.
Finally, we think of fantasy analogies in w h i c h anything i n c l u d i n g magic and
s c i e n c e f i c t i o n are a l l o w e d , for i n s t a n c e , c l a w s r e a c h i n g o u t o f t h e r o a d t o g r a b o u r
wheels.
I n K o b e r g a n d B a g n a l l ' s ( 1 9 7 4 ) a t t r i b u t e a n a l o g y s y s t e m , t h e c h e c k l i s t i s a list
o f a t t r i b u t e s o f a n o b j e c t — i t s n a m e , f o r m , f u n c t i o n , c o l o r , a n d m a t e r i a l . I f w e are
t r y i n g t o i m p r o v e s o m e o b j e c t , s a y , a f i r e p l a c e , w e first l i s t its a t t r i b u t e s a n d t h e n
attach a n a l o g i e s to e a c h one. T a b l e 1 illustrates the process.
T a b l e 1. T h e Attribute A n a l o g y System (from K o b e r g and Bagnall, 1 9 7 4 )
A s s u m i n g t h e p r o b l e m i s t o i m p r o v e a f i r e p l a c e , its a t t r i b u t e s a r e :
Name: Fireplace
Form: G e o m e t r i c , angular, conical, etc.
Function: H e a t room, p s y c h o l o g i c a l l y soothing, etc.
Color: Black, brick red, etc.
Material: Steel, masonry, etc.
Analogy Chains (similarities)

Name: C o m b u s t i o n c h a m b e r , tea pot, auto e n g i n e , cigarette lighter, etc.
Form: Architectural constructions, crystals, prisms, etc.
Function: C a t o n l a p , r o b e , i n t i m a t e f r i e n d , e t c .
Ideas Produced (for i m p r o v i n g f i r e p l a c e )

C h a n g e n a m e to e n e r g y transformer.
T r y forms w h i c h are d e r i v e d from crystal structures.
Use robe insulation principle to c o n s e r v e radiant heat, etc.
As y e t there appears to be no solid experimental e v i d e n c e that either synectics

or attribute a n a l o g i e s actually work. H o w e v e r , the s y n e c t i c s s y s t e m has r e c e i v e d a
g o o d deal of favorable c o m m e n t from users in industry (see Stein, 1975).
P L A N N I N G A N D CREATIVITY
A plan is a set of directions we use to g u i d e us in solving a p r o b l e m . T h e more

effort w e p u t i n t o p l a n n i n g , t h e m o r e l i k e l y w e a r e t o c o n s t r u c t a g o o d m a p w h i c h
w i l l g u i d e u s e f f i c i e n t l y t o t h e b e s t s o l u t i o n . S i n c e c r e a t i v e acts a r e p r o b l e m - s o l v i n g
a c t s , i t s h o u l d n ' t s u r p r i s e u s t h a t p l a n n i n g i s a l s o i m p o r t a n t for c r e a t i v i t y . F l o w e r
a n d H a y e s (1980) h a v e s h o w n t h a t g o o d e x p o s i t o r y w r i t e r s p l a n m u c h m o r e e f f e c -
tively than do poor writers.
A p a t h - b r e a k i n g s t u d y b y G e t z e l s a n d C s i k s z e n t m i h a l y i ( 1 9 7 6 ) i n d i c a t e s that
p l a n n i n g i s c r i t i c a l l y i m p o r t a n t i n art. T h e y s h o w e d t h a t t h e a m o u n t o f p l a n n i n g *
* T h e s e authors claim to measure problem finding rather than planning. However, as these
terms are used in this text, and, I b e l i e v e , in cognitive science generally, it is more appro-
priate to say that they have measured planning.
t h a t a n art s t u d e n t d i d i n p r e p a r i n g t o d r a w a p i c t u r e p r e d i c t e d n o t o n l y t h e q u a l i t y
of the resulting picture, but also w h e t h e r or not the student w o u l d b e c o m e a
p r o d u c t i v e artist y e a r s l a t e r .
T h e investigators tested 31 m a l e second- and third-year students at a presti-
g i o u s art s c h o o l . E a c h s t u d e n t w a s b r o u g h t i n t o a n e x p e r i m e n t a l r o o m s u p p l i e d
with d r a w i n g materials, an e m p t y table, and a variety of objects. T h e students w e r e
asked to select any of the objects they wanted, arrange t h e m on the table as they
chose, and t h e n to d r a w a picture. T h e y w e r e told, " T h e important thing is that the
drawing should be pleasing to you."
T h e experimenter then noted three things about the students' behavior before
they started d r a w i n g a n d three things about their b e h a v i o r w h i l e they w e r e draw-
ing. T h e s e six b e h a v i o r s (listed in T a b l e 2) w e r e c h o s e n to reflect the a m o u n t of
planning the students did in executing the drawing. For example, students w e r e
s c o r e d h i g h o n p l a n n i n g i f t h e y e x a m i n e d m a n y o b j e c t s o r i f t h e y m a d e m a n y drafts
a n d t o o k c o n s i d e r a b l e t i m e i n a r r i v i n g a t t h e final s t r u c t u r e o f t h e i r d r a w i n g s .
T a b l e 2. Six Behaviors Used to M e a s u r e Planning
BEFORE DRAWING:
Bl. H o w many objects w e r e manipulated?

B2. W e r e u n u s u a l o b j e c t s c h o s e n — t h a t is, d i d a s t u d e n t c h o o s e o b j e c t s w h i c h f e w
other students chose?
B3. H o w carefully did the student examine the objects?
WHILE DRAWING:
Wl. H o w m u c h time e l a p s e d from the b e g i n n i n g o f d r a w i n g t o the time a t w h i c h

t h e final s t r u c t u r e a p p e a r e d ? ( j u d g e d l a t e r b y l o o k i n g a t a s e q u e n c e o f t i m e d
photographs)
W 2 . D i d t h e s u b j e c t start t h e d r a w i n g o v e r o r c h a n g e t h e a r r a n g e m e n t o f t h e
objects?
W 3 . W a s the d r a w i n g simply a c o p y of the arrangement of objects, or w e r e the
objects in the d r a w i n g modified in size, position, or n u m b e r ?
T h e d r a w i n g s that the students p r o d u c e d w e r e then e v a l u a t e d i n d e p e n d e n t l y

b y f i v e art c r i t i c s for o r i g i n a l i t y , c r a f t s m a n s h i p , a n d o v e r a l l v a l u e . T a b l e 3 s h o w s t h e
correlations b e t w e e n the average of the five critics' j u d g m e n t s and the p l a n n i n g
b e h a v i o r s . F i v e o f t h e six p l a n n i n g b e h a v i o r s s h o w s t r o n g c o r r e l a t i o n s w i t h t h e
c r i t i c s ' j u d g m e n t s . ( I n t h i s s t u d y , a c o r r e l a t i o n o f 0.3 o r l a r g e r s h o u l d b e c o n s i d e r e d
significant.) Planning, then, appears to be very helpful in creating a g o o d d r a w i n g .
I n a f o l l o w - u p s t u d y s e v e n y e a r s later, G e t z e l s a n d C s i k s z e n t m i h a l y i t r i e d t o
d e t e r m i n e h o w s u c c e s s f u l t h e 3 1 s t u d e n t s w e r e i n p u r s u i n g artistic c a r e e r s . B y
c o n t a c t i n g art c r i t i c s , d i r e c t o r s o f art g a l l e r i e s , a n d t h e s t u d e n t s t h e m s e l v e s , t h e y
f o u n d t h a t a b o u t h a l f o f t h e s t u d e n t s h a d d r o p p e d o u t o f art c o m p l e t e l y . T h e r e s t
w e r e p u r s u i n g c a r e e r s i n t h e f i n e arts w i t h v a r y i n g d e g r e e s o f s u c c e s s . Seven* w e r e
u s i n g t h e i r s k i l l s i n r e l a t e d p r o f e s s i o n s , s u c h a s t e a c h i n g art, b u t h a d n o t y e t e x h i -
b i t e d t h e i r w o r k p u b l i c l y . T h e r e m a i n i n g n i n e h a d all e x h i b i t e d . S o m e w e r e r e p r e -
s e n t e d by major galleries and o n e had a c h i e v e d a v e r y notable d e g r e e of success.
H i s w o r k is h u n g in the b e s t galleries, and articles a b o u t his w o r k a p p e a r in the most
r e s p e c t e d art j o u r n a l s .
T h e l a s t c o l u m n o f T a b l e 1 s h o w s t h e c o r r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n s u c c e s s a s a n artist
a n d t h e p l a n n i n g b e h a v i o r s m e a s u r e d s e v e n y e a r s e a r l i e r . F o u r o f t h e six b e h a v i o r s
s h o w strong correlations w i t h s u c c e s s . T h e s i m p l e s t w a y t o interpret this remark-
a b l e r e s u l t i s t o a s s u m e t h a t t h e s u c c e s s f u l artists h a b i t u a l l y m a k e p l a n n i n g p a r t o f
t h e i r a p p r o a c h t o a r t i s t i c p r o b l e m s . P l a n n i n g l e a d s t o h i g h q u a l i t y i n all t h e i r artistic
work just as it led to high quality in the experimental drawings.
CREATIVITY AND PREPARATION
I n C h a p t e r 2 , w e r e v i e w e d r e s e a r c h i n d i c a t i n g that skillful c h e s s players em-

p l o y a n e n o r m o u s a m o u n t o f chess-pattern k n o w l e d g e . T o a c q u i r e this k n o w l e d g e ,
the chess p l a y e r must s p e n d thousands of hours of p r e p a r a t i o n — p l a y i n g chess,
reading chess magazines, and studying chess positions. Simon and C h a s e (1973)
n o t e t h a t i t i s v e r y r a r e for a p e r s o n t o r e a c h t h e g r a n d m a s t e r l e v e l o f s k i l l w i t h l e s s
than 10 years of i n t e n s i v e study.
If chess masters require a long and intensive period of preparation to acquire
their skill, w h a t about painters a n d c o m p o s e r s ? C e r t a i n l y painting a n d composition
require large amounts of pattern k n o w l e d g e . T h e painter must k n o w h o w a face will
look from a m u l t i t u d e of a n g l e s a n d h o w colors clash or h a r m o n i z e . T h e c o m p o s e r
must k n o w the timbres of the various instruments and the sound, look, and feel of
c h o r d s a n d k e y s t r u c t u r e s . D o c r e a t i v e artists t h e n a l s o r e q u i r e i n t e n s e p r e p a r a t i o n
before they can p r o d u c e w o r k s of real merit? D o e s creative productivity d e p e n d on
preparation, or can g e n i u s e s p r o d u c e masterworks right from the b e g i n n i n g of their
careers? To a n s w e r this q u e s t i o n , I d e c i d e d to e x a m i n e the l i v e s of famous c o m -
posers.
I started my i n v e s t i g a t i o n w i t h t h e i n c r e d i b l y p r e c o c i o u s Mozart, b e c a u s e he
is the c o m p o s e r w h o s e e m s least likely to have required a l o n g period of prepara-
t i o n . H e b e g a n t o s t u d y m u s i c a t f o u r a n d w r o t e h i s first s y m p h o n y a t t h e a g e o f
eight.
I h a v e g r a p h e d the n u m b e r of w o r k s that M o z a r t p r o d u c e d in e a c h year of his
career in F i g u r e 1. T h e figure s h o w s that Mozart's productivity increased steadily
for t h e first 1 0 o r 1 2 y e a r s o f h i s c a r e e r . I t a l s o s h o w s t h a t M o z a r t d i d p r o d u c e w o r k s
in the very early part of his career w h e n he had had o n l y a y e a r or t w o of prepara-
tion. I f t h e s e are w o r k s o f v e r y h i g h q u a l i t y , t h e n w e c o u l d c o n c l u d e , for M o z a r t a t
least, that h e d i d n ' t r e q u i r e l o n g preparation t o b e o u t s t a n d i n g l y c r e a t i v e . H o w e v e r ,
2T i i i I l i i i II i i i t I i i i i I i i i i I i i i i | i
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
N u m b e r of y e a r s into c a r e e r
Figure 1.
T h e y e a r m a r k e d 0 on t h e g r a p h is 1760, the y e a r w h e n Mozart w a s four and b e g a n inten-
s i v e m u s i c a l training. T h e solid line in t h e figure is b a s e d on information from Grove's
Dictionary of Music (1955). T h e d a s h e d line is b a s e d on K o e c h e l ' s listings (1965) as
revised b y m o d e r n m u s i c o l o g i s t s . T h e s e two s o u r c e s a r e i n r e a s o n a b l e a g r e e m e n t
a b o u t what w o r k s w e r e p r o d u c e d w h e n .
these early works may not be of outstanding quality. Perhaps they have b e e n
p r e s e r v e d for t h e i r h i s t o r i c a l r a t h e r t h a n t h e i r m u s i c a l v a l u e .
To obtain some measure of the quality of Mozart's work, I turned, oddly
e n o u g h , to S c h w a n n ' s Record and Tape Guide. I r e a s o n e d t h a t an e x c e l l e n t w o r k
is l i k e l y to be r e c o r d e d m o r e often than a poor one. T h e d e c i s i o n to record a w o r k
p r e s u m a b l y reflects b o t h musical j u d g m e n t and popular t a s t e — t h a t is, it reflects
the musical j u d g m e n t by a c o n d u c t o r that the w o r k is w o r t h w h i l e and the b e l i e f of
the record c o m p a n i e s that the record will sell.
Figure 2 shows the n u m b e r of recordings listed in Schwann's guide (August,
1979) of works written in each year of Mozart's career. W h i l e about 12 percent of
M o z a r t ' s w o r k s w e r e w r i t t e n i n t h e first 1 0 y e a r s o f h i s c a r e e r , o n l y 4.8 p e r c e n t o f
the recordings c a m e from this early period. Further, m a n y of the recordings of early
w o r k s are i n c l u d e d i n c o l l e c t i o n s w i t h l a b e l s s u c h a s , " T h e C o m p l e t e S y m p h o n i e s
o f M o z a r t . " P e r h a p s t h e e a r l y w o r k s w e r e i n c l u d e d for r e a s o n s o f c o m p l e t e n e s s
r a t h e r t h a n e x c e l l e n c e . W h e n r e c o r d i n g s i n c l u d e d i n c o m p l e t e c o l l e c t i o n s are
o m i t t e d from t h e c a l c u l a t i o n s , the p e r c e n t a g e of r e c o r d i n g s in this early p e r i o d
N u m b e r o f y e a r s into c a r e e r
Figure 2.
d r o p s t o 2.4. T h e s e o b s e r v a t i o n s s u g g e s t t h a t M o z a r t ' s e a r l y w o r k s are n o t o f t h e

same h i g h quality as his later o n e s . T h e m u s i c critic, H a r o l d S c h o n b e r g , is of the
same opinion. He says (1970)
I t i s s t r a n g e t o s a y o f a c o m p o s e r w h o s t a r t e d w r i t i n g a t six, a n d l i v e d
o n l y 3 6 y e a r s , t h a t h e d e v e l o p e d l a t e , b u t t h a t i s t h e truth. F e w o f M o z a r t ' s
early w o r k s , e l e g a n t as t h e y are, h a v e the personality, concentration, and
r i c h n e s s t h a t e n t e r e d h i s m u s i c after 1 7 8 1 "
In 1 7 8 1 , Mozart w a s in the 2 1 s t y e a r of his career.

S o m e w o r k s are r e c o r d e d t w o or three times in different c o m p l e t e collections.

T h e r e f o r e , t o w e e d o u t w o r k s w h i c h m a y b e r e c o r d e d for r e a s o n s o t h e r t h a n m u s i c a l
q u a l i t y , I d e f i n e d a m a s t e r w o r k (for t h e p u r p o s e s o f t h i s s t u d y ) a s o n e for w h i c h f i v e
different r e c o r d i n g s are currently listed in S c h w a n n ' s g u i d e . By this definition,
M o z a r t ' s first m a s t e r w o r k w a s w r i t t e n i n t h e 1 2 t h y e a r o f h i s c a r e e r .
To explore the question about creativity and preparation more generally, I
s e a r c h e d for b i o g r a p h i c a l m a t e r i a l a b o u t all o f t h e c o m p o s e r s d i s c u s s e d i n S c h o n -
b e r g ' s The Lives of the Great Composers ( 1 9 7 0 ) . F o r 76 of t h e s e c o m p o s e r s , I w a s
a b l e t o d e t e r m i n e w h e n t h e y s t a r t e d i n t e n s i v e s t u d y o f m u s i c . I n c i d e n t a l l y , all o f
these composers had at least one work listed in Schwann's guide, and 64 had one
or more w o r k s w h i c h w e r e available on five different records.
I n F i g u r e 3 all o f t h e c a r e e r s o f t h e c o m p o s e r s a r e s h o w n o n t h e s a m e s c a l e .
T h a t is, the 10th y e a r of H a n d e l ' s c a r e e r is g r a p h e d in the s a m e p l a c e as the 10th
y e a r o f B r a h m s ' career. T h e figure s h o w s that v e r y f e w c o m p o s e r s p r o d u c e d master-
w o r k s w i t h l e s s t h a n 1 0 y e a r s o f p r e p a r a t i o n . T h e r e are j u s t t h r e e e x c e p t i o n s : S a t i e ' s
"Trois G y m n o p e d i e s , " written in year 8; Shostakovich's S y m p h o n y # 1 , and Paga-
nini's Caprices, both written in year 9. B e t w e e n year 10 and year 25, there is an
enormous increase in productivity.
0 2 10 18 26 34 42
N u m b e r o f y e a r s into c a r e e r
Figure 3.
F i g u r e 4 s h o w s that c o m p o s e r s m a i n t a i n their p r o d u c t i v i t y t h r o u g h the 40th
year of their careers. F i g u r e 5 indicates that a d e c l i n e in productivity b e g i n s at
a b o u t t h e 5 0 t h y e a r o f t h e i r c a r e e r s . P r o d u c t i v i t y c a n c o n t i n u e far b e y o n d t h e 5 0 t h
y e a r , h o w e v e r . F o r e x a m p l e , A l b e n i z ' s first m a s t e r w o r k w a s w r i t t e n i n t h e 7 2 n d
year of his career!
It is r e a s o n a b l e to ask w h e t h e r the important factor in the c o m p o s e r s ' produc-

tivity is r e a l l y p r e p a r a t i o n or if p e r h a p s t h e important factor is s i m p l y a g e . It is
c o n c e i v a b l e , for e x a m p l e , t h a t c o m p o s e r s h a v e t o b e , s a y , 1 6 o r 2 2 , b e f o r e t h e y c a n
write g o o d m u s i c . P e r h a p s it is e x p e r i e n c e in life rather than e x p e r i e n c e in m u s i c
that i s c r i t i c a l . T o t e s t t h i s p o s s i b i l i t y , I d i v i d e d t h e c o m p o s e r s i n t o t h r e e g r o u p s .
T h e first c o n s i s t e d o f 1 4 c o m p o s e r s w h o h a d b e g u n t h e i r c a r e e r s b e t w e e n t h e a g e s
of 3 and 5. T h e second group consisted of 30 composers w h o b e g a n their careers
b e t w e e n 6 and 9 years of age. T h e third group consisted of 20 composers w h o b e g a n
their careers at 10 or later.
I r e a s o n e d t h a t i f a g e w e r e t h e c r i t i c a l factor, t h e n t h o s e w h o s t a r t e d t h e i r
careers early w o u l d h a v e to w a i t longer to p r o d u c e g o o d w o r k than those composers
w h o s t a r t e d l a t e . I n fact, t h i s w a s n o t t h e c a s e . T h e m e d i a n n u m b e r o f y e a r s t o first
n o t a b l e c o m p o s i t i o n w a s 1 6 . 5 for t h e first g r o u p , 2 2 for t h e s e c o n d g r o u p , a n d 2 1 . 5
for t h e t h i r d g r o u p .
It appears, t h e n , that w h a t c o m p o s e r s n e e d to write g o o d m u s i c is not maturing
but rather m u s i c a l preparation. T h e results m a k e it dramatically c l e a r that no o n e
c o m p o s e s o u t s t a n d i n g m u s i c w i t h o u t first h a v i n g a b o u t 1 0 y e a r s o f i n t e n s i v e
musical preparation.
T h e s e r e s u l t s d o not m e a n t h a t t h e r e i s n o s u c h t h i n g a s g e n i u s . T h e y d o not
m e a n that j u s t a n y o n e w i t h 1 0 t o 2 5 years o f e x p e r i e n c e can write great m u s i c . T h e y
do m e a n that e v e n a p e r s o n e n d o w e d w i t h the g e n i u s of Mozart or B e e t h o v e n w i l l
n e e d 10 years or more of intense preparation to be creative.
T h e s e results h a v e the following practical implications:
1 . I f y o u h a v e b e e n w o r k i n g h a r d i n y o u r c h o s e n a r e a for s e v e r a l y e a r s a n d
haven't yet r e c e i v e d a N o b e l or e v e n a Pulitzer prize, don't despair. Think
in terms of d e c a d e s rather than years.
2 . I f y o u h a v e d e c i d e d t o g o into c r e a t i v e w o r k b e c a u s e y o u are " b a s i c a l l y
lazy," y o u h a v e m a d e a ghastly mistake. Creative scientists typically work
70-80 h o u r s a w e e k . Y o u w o u l d d o b e t t e r t o b e a p l u m b e r o r m e c h a n i c .
T h e s e are h o n o r a b l e professions and t h e y p a y m u c h better p e r hour than
s c i e n c e o r art.
SUMMARY
A creative act is o n e w h i c h :
1. is o r i g i n a l ,
2. valuable, and >
3. suggests that the p e r s o n performing the act has u n u s u a l mental abilities.

Cognitive Processes in Creative Acts 2/5
A c r e a t i v e a c t is a p r o b l e m - s o l v i n g act, a n d , in p a r t i c u l a r it is t h e s o l u t i o n of an
i l l - d e f i n e d p r o b l e m . F o u r c o g n i t i v e p r o c e s s e s e s p e c i a l l y i m p o r t a n t for c r e a t i v i t y
are: p r o b l e m finding, i d e a generation, planning, a n d preparation.
Problem finding—the d i s c o v e r y o f a n e w p r o b l e m n o t s u g g e s t e d b y a n y o n e
e l s e — i s i m p o r t a n t i n i n i t i a t i n g n e w d i r e c t i o n s i n s c i e n c e a n d art. T h r e e p r o c e d u r e s
t h a t c a n h e l p u s t o f i n d p r o b l e m s a r e : b u g l i s t i n g , s e a r c h i n g for c o u n t e r e x a m p l e s ,
a n d s e a r c h i n g for a l t e r n a t i v e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s .
S o m e t i m e s , w h e n w e are t r y i n g t o s o l v e a n i l l - d e f i n e d p r o b l e m , \ v e are b l o c k e d
b y d i f f i c u l t y i n generating ideas for s o l u t i o n . B r a i n s t o r m i n g a n d d i s c o v e r i n g a n a l -
ogies c a n h e l p us out of this difficulty.
Planning i s i m p o r t a n t i n c r e a t i v e a c t i v i t i e s a s i t i s i n a n y f o r m o f p r o b l e m
s o l v i n g . G o o d w r i t i n g a n d g o o d art d e p e n d o n g o o d p l a n n i n g .
E x t e n s i v e preparation i s e s s e n t i a l for acts o f o u t s t a n d i n g c r e a t i v i t y . C o m p o s e r s
require about 10 years of preparation before they can produce works of outstanding
quality.
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Gruber, G. Terrell, and M. Wertheimer. N e w York: Atherton Press, 1964.
ELEVEN.
H O W SOCIAL C O N D I T I O N S
AFFECT CREATIVITY*
Creativity can o c c u r on a variety of l e v e l s , as p o i n t e d out in C h a p t e r 10. W h e n

w e speak o f creativity i n this chapter, w e m e a n the v e r y h i g h e s t l e v e l o f
c r e a t i v i t y — t h e l e v e l at w h i c h a s y m p h o n y is p r o d u c e d , a scientific discovery made,
or a P u l i t z e r - p r i z e - w i n n i n g p l a y is w r i t t e n .
W e are i n n o w a y s u g g e s t i n g t h a t p e o p l e w h o a s p i r e t o a n d a c h i e v e t h i s h i g h
l e v e l of creativity are better, h a p p i e r , or m o r e p e r s o n a l l y fulfilled than the rest of
us. A n d we certainly h a v e no m a g i c formula to insure that p e o p l e can b e c o m e a
R e m b r a n d t or an E i n s t e i n or a Mozart.
S t i l l , w e d o k n o w s o m e factors t h a t are i m p o r t a n t for a c h i e v i n g h i g h - l e v e l
c r e a t i v i t y . I n t h e last c h a p t e r w e d i s c u s s e d t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f k n o w l e d g e , p l a n -
n i n g , a n d h a r d w o r k ; i n t h i s c h a p t e r w e w i l l d i s c u s s h o w s o c i a l c o n d i t i o n s affect
creativity.
INTRODUCTION
W h e n w e c o m p a r e groups o f p e o p l e i n the U n i t e d States, w e find enormous

differences a m o n g t h e m in creative productivity. M e n a c h i e v e more than w o m e n ;
Jews, more than Christians; Orientals, more than w h i t e s ; and w h i t e s , more than
blacks and native Americans.
S o m e c l a i m that t h e s e differences are innate. F o r e x a m p l e , J e n s e n (1971) has
argued that racial differences in intellectual p e r f o r m a n c e , particularly on IQ tests,
are d u e i n p a r t t o h e r e d i t y . H o w e v e r , B r o d y a n d B r o d y ( 1 9 7 6 ) h a v e c a r e f u l l y r e -
v i e w e d the research on racial differences in i n t e l l i g e n c e . T h e y found no e v i d e n c e
t o s u g g e s t t h a t t h e d i f f e r e n c e s are h e r e d i t a r y .
W e b e l i e v e t h a t d i f f e r e n c e s i n h i g h - l e v e l c r e a t i v i t y b e t w e e n g r o u p s are d u e
largely to differences in e n v i r o n m e n t . S o m e e n v i r o n m e n t s foster creativity and
s o m e d o n o t . A s w e s e e it, s o c i e t y h a s b e e n c o n d u c t i n g s o m e v e r y l a r g e - s c a l e
" n a t u r a l " e x p e r i m e n t s o n c r e a t i v i t y . M e n a n d w o m e n i n o u r s o c i e t y are r a i s e d
differently, e v e n t h o u g h t h e y m a y b e raised i n the same h o u s e h o l d . Jews and
C h r i s t i a n s are t a u g h t d i f f e r e n t a t t i t u d e s t o w a r d l e a r n i n g . B l a c k s a n d w h i t e s are
given different e c o n o m i c opportunities. A l l of t h e s e differences can influence crea-
* T h i s chapter was written w i t h Sandra J. B o n d , of C a r n e g i e - M e l l o n University.

tive productivity. By examining the experiences of p e o p l e in these groups, we can

gain s o m e insight into h o w this h a p p e n s .
MEN A N D W O M E N
Historically, m e n have b e e n more creative than w o m e n , as T a b l e 1 shows. This

i s t r u e n o t o n l y for t h e s c i e n c e s a n d p o l i t i c s , b u t for t h e arts a s w e l l . A l t h o u g h t h e r e
a r e a b o u t e q u a l n u m b e r s o f m e n a n d w o m e n i n o u r p o p u l a t i o n (49 p e r c e n t , m a l e ;
51 percent, female), m e n have clearly overshadowed w o m e n in creative accom-
T a b l e 1 . A c h i e v e m e n t s b y M e n and W o m e n
Nobel Prizes (1901-1979) Men Women

physics 112 2
chemistry 90 3
physiology or medicine 122 2
economics 15 0
National Academy of Science Awards
a Carty M e d a l in Science (1932-1978) 15 0
i»
*** D r a p e r M e d a l in P h y s i c s (1886-1980) 41 1
to Elliot Medal in Zoology or Paleontology (1917-1979) 46 1
Kovalenko M e d a l in Medical Science (1952-1979) 12 0
Thompson Medal in Geology or Paleontology (1921-1976) 27 0
National Medal of Science (1962-1979) 153 2
AMA Distinguished Service Award (1938-1979) 42 0

Total 635 11
(98%) (2%)
Nobel Prize (1901-1979)

literature 75 5
Pulitzer Prizes
fiction 53 18
drama 66 5
to poetry 56 11
music 34 2
biography 64 6
Prix de Rome (music) 131 8
Total 515 55
(90%) (10%)
Nobel Prize (1901-1980)

peace 65 6
CO
U.S. Senators 99 1
"S Members of the House of Representatives 419 16
Governors 48 2
Total 631 25
(96%) (4%)
Listings in Who's Who in America (1980-1981) 94% 6%
Percent of population in the United States: m e n , 49 percent; w o m e n , 51 percent. Popula-

tion figures for 1 9 7 8 : males, 1 0 6 . 5 million; females, 1 1 2 . 0 million.
H o w Social Conditions Affect Creativity 279
p l i s h m e n t . A r e w o m e n less c r e a t i v e than m e n b y nature? W e feel that there i s really

n o r e a s o n t o b e l i e v e s o . O u r c u l t u r e treats m e n a n d w o m e n v e r y d i f f e r e n t l y . W o m e n
are g i v e n far l e s s o p p o r t u n i t y a n d e n c o u r a g e m e n t t o b e c r e a t i v e t h a n a r e m e n . I n
the f o l l o w i n g sections, w e w i l l argue that t h e s e differences i n treatment can m a k e
an enormous difference in creative output.
S o m e Prerequisites for Creativity: Interest, S e l f - c o n f i d e n c e , and T i m e
I n C h a p t e r 1 0 w e f o u n d that e v e n M o z a r t a n d B e e t h o v e n r e q u i r e d m o r e than
10 years of intensive preparation before they c o u l d b e g i n to p r o d u c e their master-
works. In any field, p e o p l e w h o w a n t to be creative must e x p e c t to invest enormous
a m o u n t s o f t i m e a n d effort i n t h e i r p r o f e s s i o n a n d e v e n t h e n i t m a y n o t b e e n o u g h .
T h e effort i n v o l v e d g o e s far b e y o n d t h e h o u r s a n o r m a l j o b r e q u i r e s . F o r e x a m p l e ,
U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a p r o f e s s o r s s p e n d a n average o f 6 0 h o u r s w e e k l y o n t e a c h -
ing and research (Harris, 1972). S o m e s p e n d m u c h more time. Herbert Simon, 1978
N o b e l L a u r e a t e i n E c o n o m i c s , s p e n t a b o u t 1 0 0 h o u r s a w e e k for y e a r s d o i n g t h e
w o r k for w h i c h h e e v e n t u a l l y w o n t h e N o b e l p r i z e ( p e r s o n a l c o m m u n i c a t i o n ) . S i n c e
there are o n l y 168 hours in a w e e k , it is o b v i o u s that i n t e n s i v e c r e a t i v e w o r k of this
type necessarily takes p r e c e d e n c e over everything e l s e — i n c l u d i n g sleep!
P e o p l e w h o c a n i n v e s t t h i s sort o f i n t e n s e effort i n a f i e l d m u s t h a v e :
1 . S u f f i c i e n t i n t e r e s t i n t h e f i e l d t h a t t h e y want t o i n v e s t t h e t i m e ;
2. sufficient self-confidence to b e l i e v e that t h e y are not s i m p l y w a s t i n g their
time; and
3. sufficient f r e e d o m from other r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s so that n e c e s s a r y t i m e is avail-
able to them.
O u r c u l t u r e m a k e s i t far m o r e l i k e l y t h a t m e n w i l l m e e t t h e s e c r i t e r i a t h a n
women.
Education of Females: The Early Years
By tradition, males and females have v e r y different roles in our c u l t u r e — r o l e s

they are e x p e c t e d to p l a y from v e r y early c h i l d h o o d on. W h e n we hear of a child
b e i n g b o r n , w e a r e a l m o s t a l w a y s t o l d its s e x . S e x u a l i d e n t i t y i s t a k e n v e r y s e r i o u s l y ,
a n d t h e c h i l d i s r a r e l y a l l o w e d t o f o r g e t it. A s i n f a n t s , b o y s a r e d r e s s e d i n b l u e a n d
h a v e b o y s ' n a m e s , w h i l e g i r l s a r e d r e s s e d i n p i n k a n d h a v e g i r l s ' n a m e s . A s four-
year-olds, b o y s are e x p e c t e d to be interested in trucks; and girls, in dolls. In the
primary grades, b o y s are e x p e c t e d to s h o w more interest in s c i e n c e than girls do.
T h e s e e x p e c t a t i o n s m o l d c h i l d r e n ' s i n t e r e s t s . T o r r a n c e ( 1 9 6 0 ) f o u n d t h a t g i r l s are
r e l u c t a n t t o w o r k w i t h s c i e n c e t o y s a n d o f t e n s a y t h a t t h e s e t o y s a r e n ' t s u i t a b l e for
t h e m , a n d that b o y s s u g g e s t t w i c e a s m a n y i d e a s a s g i r l s i n e x p e r i m e n t s w i t h
science materials. By c h a n g i n g the teaching conditions, though, Torrance was able
to r e d u c e this difference significantly. He c o n c l u d e d that social forces w e r e at w o r k
e v e n at early a g e s to turn girls a w a y from certain fields.
Not only d o e s society g u i d e girls' interests a w a y from s c i e n c e — i t also directs
them very p o w e r f u l l y t o w a r d other occupations in w h i c h it is difficult to pursue
high-level creative activities. C h i e f among these " w o m e n ' s j o b s " is "wife-and-
mother." A c c o r d i n g to the cultural ideal, the wife-and-mother is a h o m e m a k e r —
she cleans, sews, cooks, and w a s h e s at h o m e , is " f u l f i l l e d " by raising babies, and
admires and supports h e r h u s b a n d . It is e a s y to g u e s s that t h e r e is little about this
o c c u p a t i o n t h a t fosters t h e c r e a t i v e e f f o r t n e c e s s a r y t o p r o d u c e a m a s t e r w o r k . I f a
wife-and-mother does work outside the home, society encourages her to enter
women's occupations such as domestic helper, nurse, secretary, and teacher. T h e s e
o c c u p a t i o n s h a v e r e l a t i v e l y l o w status a n d l o w p a y , a n d offer l i t t l e o p p o r t u n i t y for
creative a c h i e v e m e n t .
Self-confidence
E x p e r i e n c e s during the early years not only shape children's interests, they
also h e l p to d e t e r m i n e w h e t h e r children will d e v e l o p sufficient confidence in
t h e m s e l v e s to c o m p e t e in creative fields.
I t i s t r a d i t i o n a l i n o u r c u l t u r e t o b e l i e v e t h a t a s a g r o u p w o m e n suffer f r o m
certain intellectual deficits. It is said that w o m e n can't h a n d l e abstract ideas and
that t h e y can't think logically. A corollary of these b e l i e f s is that w o m e n can't do
w e l l in math- or science-related fields such as engineering, m e d i c i n e , or finance. If
a y o u n g g i r l ' s p a r e n t s b e l i e v e t h e s e t h i n g s , i t m a y b e d i f f i c u l t for h e r t o d e v e l o p
c o n f i d e n c e that she c o u l d s u c c e e d in any of these fields.
In a study of successful and unsuccessful w o m e n , B o n d and H a y e s (1978) found
that parents of successful w o m e n don't share this cultural s t e r e o t y p e . O n e of the
successful w o m e n , a psychiatrist, says:
M y father s h a r e d the v i e w that w o m e n s h o u l d d o w h a t e v e r w o r k t h e y w e r e

e q u i p p e d t o d o a n d g a v e m e faith i n m y s e l f , d e t e r m i n a t i o n , a n d m o r a l
support. (Rossi and C a l d e r w o o d , 1973)
A n o t h e r , a s u c c e s s f u l c h e m i s t , states:
It w a s a l w a y s a s s u m e d that I w o u l d p u r s u e a scientific career, since I

s h o w e d s o m e talent in that direction. I cannot say that I w a s e n c o u r a g e d
to h a v e professional aspirations, as m u c h as that it w a s a s s u m e d that I
w o u l d fulfill t h e m . (Kundsin, 1974)
A pediatrician recalls:
To my father and mother, it w a s important that p e o p l e are w h a t they

a r e — a n d that b e i n g w h o and w h a t I w a s w a s good. As a w o m a n , I w a s told,
I w o u l d be able to do w h a t e v e r I wanted. (Kundsin, 1974)
A noted physician says:
D u r i n g a d o l e s c e n c e a n d c o l l e g e , i t w a s t a k e n for g r a n t e d b y e v e r y o n e ,
i n c l u d i n g myself, that I w o u l d go into m e d i c a l school. No o n e s e e m e d to
h a v e a n y d o u b t s a t all t h a t I w o u l d g o , a n d r e t r o s p e c t i v e l y , t h e m o s t e x -
traordinary factor I c a n n o w r e c o g n i z e is that n e v e r o n c e w h i l e I w a s
g r o w i n g up do I r e m e m b e r a n y o n e at any time e v e r s u g g e s t i n g that there
was s o m e t h i n g I c o u l d not do simply b e c a u s e I w a s female. E v e r y o n e I
k n e w o r e v e r c a m e i n c o n t a c t w i t h s i m p l y t o o k i t for g r a n t e d t h a t w h a t e v e r
I w a n t e d to d o , I c o u l d do. (Kundsin, 1974)
Role M o d e l s
I t i s h e l p f u l for p e o p l e p l a n n i n g t o e n t e r a d i f f i c u l t f i e l d t o h a v e r o l e
m o d e l s — t h a t is, p e o p l e t h e y a d m i r e a n d w a n t t o i m i t a t e , w h o c a n s h o w t h e m w h a t
i t i s t o l e a d t h e sort o f l i f e t o w h i c h t h e y a s p i r e . I f y o u w a n t t o b e a p h y s i c i a n , y o u
w i l l h a v e a r e a l a d v a n t a g e if a p a r e n t , c l o s e r e l a t i v e , or f r i e n d is a p h y s i c i a n . Y o u
w i l l b e a b l e t o l e a r n f i r s t h a n d w h a t sorts o f p r o b l e m s d o c t o r s f a c e a n d h o w t h e y d e a l
with them.
T h e r e is no q u e s t i o n that the p e o p l e we select as role m o d e l s have a powerful
e f f e c t o n t h e d i r e c t i o n o u r life c a n t a k e . T w o o f t h e s u c c e s s f u l w o m e n i n o u r
s t u d y — t h e first, a p h y s i c i a n ; t h e s e c o n d , a n e l e c t r i c a l e n g i n e e r — t a l k a b o u t t h e i r
role m o d e l s :
At the age of 1 1 , 1 was taken in by [a doctor's family] to live with them

i n N e w York. T h i s i s w h e r e m y a c a d e m i c intellectual life and m y interest
i n m e d i c i n e b e g a n , for [the d o c t o r ] l o v e d t o t a l k o v e r h i s c a s e s w i t h m e . I
often w e n t on his rounds w i t h him. (Kundsin, 1974)
H o w Social Conditions Affect Creativity 22 7
M y professional career can b e said t o h a v e started w i t h freshman

p h y s i c s . M y p e r f o r m a n c e i n that c l a s s i m p r e s s e d m y t e a c h e r e n o u g h s o that
s h e , o n h e r o w n , s t a r t e d t o offer m e p r o f e s s i o n a l c o u n s e l i n g . S h e s u g g e s t e d
I p u r s u e a career in science. T h i s professor m a i n t a i n e d an interest in me
thoughout my undergraduate days at Hunter College and broadened my
horizons by m a n y orders of magnitude. (Kundsin, 1974)
W o m e n m a y b e b e t t e r r o l e m o d e l s for o t h e r w o m e n b e c a u s e t h e y c a n s h o w
t h e m h o w to deal effectively w i t h the special difficulties that w o m e n e n c o u n t e r —
sexism, role conflicts, etc. Unfortunately, b e c a u s e there are relatively f e w w o m e n
in creative fields n o w , there are relatively f e w w o m e n w h o can serve as role m o d e l s
for y o u n g f e m a l e s w h o w a n t t o e n t e r t h e s e f i e l d s .
F o r a w o m a n , her m o s t significant role m o d e l m a y be her mother. It should
c o m e a s n o s u r p r i s e t h a t " m o t h e r s w h o stay h o m e t o r a i s e a f a m i l y u s u a l l y h a v e
daughters w h o w a n t to do just that" (Angrist and Almquist, 1975). Of c o l l e g e w o m e n
w h o aspire to careers, only 20 percent have mothers w h o had n e v e r w o r k e d outside
the home. F o r c o l l e g e w o m e n w h o do not aspire to a career, the comparable figure
is 50 percent (Angrist and Almquist, 1975). Mothers w h o work outside the h o m e not
only c o n v e y to their d a u g h t e r s that w o r k i n g is v a l u e d , b u t t h e y also s e r v e as exam-
ples of how to successfully c o m b i n e career and motherhood. H e r e is h o w two
s u c c e s s f u l w o m e n (the first, a p s y c h i a t r i s t ; t h e s e c o n d , a c o l l e g e a d m i n i s t r a t o r )
p u t it:
All of the w o m e n in my family w o r k e d . It w a s e x p e c t e d that I w o u l d . B o t h

o f m y parents w e r e professionals and this i n f l u e n c e d m y c h o i c e t o take u p
a professional occupation. (Rossi and C a l d e r w o o d , 1973)
I don't b e l i e v e it has e v e r occurred to a n y o n e on either side of the family

that a w o m a n c o u l d be or o u g h t to be 'a m e r e h o u s e w i f e , ' and hardly a m a n
in the family w o u l d be l i k e l y to c h o o s e a w i f e w h o s a w h e r s e l f in that single
r o l e . I t i s a f a m i l y i n w h i c h e v e r y w o m a n i s s u p p o s e d t o b e somebody.
(Rossi and C a l d e r w o o d , 1973)
I n contrast, h e r e are t w o statements from n o n - c a r e e r - o r i e n t e d c o l l e g e w o m e n

with mothers w h o had n e v e r w o r k e d outside the home:
I w o u l d like to get married and h a v e a family and I don't w a n t to be a career

w o m a n . T h a t is a v e r y p o t e n t statement. I think my m o t h e r is a g o o d
example of what I w o u l d like to be and I have several girlfriends w h o s e
m o t h e r s a r e t h e s a m e . T h e y are n o t c a r e e r w o m e n y e t t h e y a r e v e r y a c t i v e
in the c o m m u n i t y . I think y o u can k e e p up w i t h w h a t is g o i n g on in the
w o r l d a n d y o u d o n ' t h a v e t o w o r k all y o u r l i f e .
(Almquist and Angrist, 1971)
and:
O u r f a m i l y life h a s b e e n k i n d o f s t r a n g e . M y f a t h e r e v e n h a s a l i t t l e b e l l h e
rings and m y m o t h e r c o m e s r u n n i n g and brings h i m coffee a n d h e w i l l call
her from a n o t h e r r o o m to c h a n g e the t e l e v i s i o n station. A n d it has b e e n so
s u c c e s s f u l . H e i s s o h a p p y a n d s h e i s h a p p y d o i n g it. W h y n o t t r e a t h i m l i k e
a king b e c a u s e the m a l e e g o is kind of a sensitive thing to go tampering
w i t h . M y l i f e i s p r o b a b l y n o t g o i n g t o m a k e t h a t m u c h d i f f e r e n c e o n so-
c i e t y , b u t m a y b e w h a t m y h u s b a n d a n d c h i l d r e n d o w i l l . I d o n ' t f e e l that
I a m that i m p o r t a n t , b u t i f I h a d t h e t i m e left o v e r , I w o u l d l i k e t o d o
v o l u n t e e r w o r k o r s p e n d t i m e o n m y o w n h o b b i e s . I f I h a v e t h e t i m e left
over. (Angrist and Almquist, 1975)
It is hardly surprising that w o m e n from s u c h families m i g h t find it e s p e c i a l l y

difficult t o t h i n k o f t h e m s e l v e s i n a c a r e e r o u t s i d e t h e h o m e . H o w e v e r , a s w e w i l l
s e e , t h e r e are p e o p l e w h o h a v e o v e r c o m e e v e n m o r e s e r i o u s d i f f i c u l t i e s .
Getting Credentials
S u p p o s e that a w o m a n s u r v i v e s or e s c a p e s early d i s c o u r a g e m e n t and d e c i d e s

to obtain professional training. (Some d o — a b o u t one P h . D . in 10 is earned by a
female.) N o w she faces another hurdle. In professional school she is likely to feel
i s o l a t e d a n d u n w a n t e d . H e r e are s o m e e x p e r i e n c e s r e p o r t e d b y s u c c e s s f u l w o m e n .
[They] w e r e i n t e r v i e w i n g graduate students in the political science depart-

m e n t . T h e professor there said to m e : " W e l l I g u e s s we are g o i n g to h a v e
t o take y o u . W e don't like older w o m e n , w e don't think y o u are w o r t h our
i n v e s t m e n t , b u t t h i s i s a state s c h o o l , y o u h a v e t h e g r a d e s a n d y o u h a v e t h e
letters of r e c o m m e n d a t i o n , so we are g o i n g to h a v e to take y o u . "
T h a t w a s d i s c o u r a g i n g , so I w a l k e d across the street to the sociology
department and asked if they had a graduate advisor.
T h e y said: " N o , b u t D r . D a l t o n w i l l talk t o y o u . "
W h e n I w e n t in and p r e s e n t e d my credentials, he said: " Y o u k n o w y o u
have to take statistics."
I said: " Y e s , I u n d e r s t a n d that."
T h e n he asked: " Y o u k n o w what getting a Ph.D. is like?"
I said: " Y e s , I d o . "
H e s a i d , " W e l l , y o u are w i l l i n g t o g o t h r o u g h t h i s ? " I s a i d , " Y e s . "
H e s a i d , " W e l l , w e are d e l i g h t e d t o h a v e y o u . "
A n d I said, " W e l l , I am o l d . "
A n d h e said, " O h , no, no. (He h a p p e n e d t o b e t w e n t y years older
t h a n I ) Y o u are n o t o l d . " I w a s afraid t o m e n t i o n t h a t I w a s a w o m a n .
So the reason I am a sociologist today is b e c a u s e there w a s sex dis-
crimination in the political science department at U C L A , b u t not in the
sociology department. (Cantor, 1974)
A physicist reports:
D u r i n g m y first y e a r o f g r a d u a t e s c h o o l , w h a t s e e m e d t o m e l i k e a n i n f i n i t e
n u m b e r of professors, t e a c h i n g assistants, and c o l l e a g u e s , n o n e of w h o m
w e r e w o m e n , told me that w o m e n can't think analytically and I must,
therefore, be h u s b a n d hunting. T h e resultant d i s c o u r a g e m e n t w a s as great
as or greater than any I've k n o w n since; h e n c e the solid determination
w i t h w h i c h I e m e r g e d w i t h my P h . D . . . . It n e e d e d to be solid, b e c a u s e it
s e e m s that a w o m a n in p h y s i c s m u s t be at least t w i c e as d e t e r m i n e d as a
man with the same competence, in order to achieve as m u c h as he does.
(Kundsin, 1974)
A mathematician recounts:
As a w o m a n mathematician—a mathematical l o g i c i a n — m y existence

apparently refutes a c o m m o n l y h e l d conviction. It is generally b e l i e v e d
t h a t a w o m a n is n o t l o g i c a l , b u t acts on t h e b a s i s of i n t u i t i o n a l o n e . . .
T h i s p o i n t o f v i e w , s o p r e v a l e n t d u r i n g t h e fifties a n d e a r l y s i x t i e s , w a s
reinforced w h e n I w e n t from an all-female e n v i r o n m e n t to an all-male
e n v i r o n m e n t w h e n I enrolled in Harvard University Graduate School. I
r e c a l l v e r y v i v i d l y m y first d a y i n c l a s s : t h r e e s e a t s i n f r o n t o f m e , t h r e e
seats in b a c k of m e , and t w o seats on either side w e r e left vacant. I w a s a
c o m p l e t e pariah in that social setting. T h e reason w a s quite simple. T h e
m e n w e r e positively u n a b l e t o interact w i t h m e . T h e y w e r e accustomed t o
dating girls and talking to t h e m about s w e e t things and e v e n speaking to
t h e m a b o u t m o r e intellectual subjects such as politics, history, and sociol-
ogy. B u t to c o n v e r s e about a purely masculine subject such as physics or
mathematics as o n e e q u a l to another w a s s o m e t h i n g t h e y had not previ-
ously experienced . . .
M y first c o l l o q u i u m a t H a r v a r d U n i v e r s i t y w a s a m e m o r a b l e e v e n t .
T h e tea, w h i c h p r e c e d e d the actual lecture, w a s h e l d in the library and w a s
H o w Social C o n d i t i o n s Affect Creativity 223
a r a t h e r f o r m a l affair. A s I e n t e r e d , all e y e s s a n k l o w e r i n t o t h e t e a c u p s i n
a great effort not to s e e m to notice m e . N e e d l e s s to say, no o n e talked to me
at all. At t h e e n d of the tea the chairman flipped the light s w i t c h up and
d o w n a s a s i g n a l for t h e c o l l o q u i u m t o b e g i n . A s h e d i d s o h e t u r n e d t o m e
a n d said, w i t h a t w i n k l e in his e y e , " Y o u r p r e s e n c e is n o t e d h e r e . "
(Kundsin, 1974)
Your presence is noted here."
C u r r e n t l y , c o n d i t i o n s a r e far f r o m i d e a l for t h e c r e a t i v e w o m a n . H o w e v e r , w e
don't w a n t t o g i v e the i m p r e s s i o n that there has b e e n n o progress. T h i n g s h a v e b e e n
worse. M a r y S o m e r v i l l e b e c a m e a scientist in E n g l a n d in the 1800's, b u t she had
t o p u t u p w i t h a l o t t o d o it.
O n e day Mary saw a magazine in w h i c h she found an algebra problem. She

yearned to k n o w w h a t the X's and Y's m e a n t — s h e had n e v e r heard of
a l g e b r a — a n d no o n e could tell her anything more. H e r rescue c a m e by
a c c i d e n t : s h e o v e r h e a r d a p a i n t e r t e l l i n g p e o p l e t o s t u d y E u c l i d for p e r -
spective and mathematics. She k n e w , then, she n e e d e d " E u c l i d " — b u t
social m o r e s forbade a y o u n g l a d y of 16 to go to a b o o k s e l l e r . S h e found a
m a n w h o c o u l d d o for h e r w h a t s h e c o u l d n o t d o h e r s e l f : b u y E u c l i d for h e r
a n d h e l p h e r w i t h p r o b l e m s . B u t s h e ran i n t o o p p o s i t i o n a t h o m e . S h e sat
u p late r e a d i n g E u c l i d and the servants c o m p l a i n e d a b o u t h o w m a n y can-
dles she w a s using. H e r candles w e r e taken away, so she was forced to
memorize Euclid. She worked problems in her mind every night before
g o i n g to s l e e p . H e r father w a r n e d that t h e y w o u l d h a v e to stop Mary's
s t u d i e s ' o r w e s h a l l h a v e M a r y i n a strait j a c k e t o n e o f t h e s e d a y s . ' F o r
w o m e n in the 1800's in E n g l a n d , too m u c h l e a r n i n g w a s c o n s i d e r e d a v e r y
dangerous thing. (Toth and T o t h , 1978)
T h i s i s h a r d l y t h e sort o f w a r m , e n t h u s i a s t i c s u p p o r t w h i c h a t a l e n t e d b u t
uncertain p e r s o n m a y n e e d to c o n t i n u e on a difficult path.
M a r r i a g e and Creativity
Since 93 p e r c e n t of m e n and 95 percent of w o m e n marry, most creative p e o p l e

c o m b i n e c a r e e r a n d m a r r i a g e . A s t u d y b y B . W . H a y e s (1980) s u g g e s t s t h a t i t i s m u c h
e a s i e r for m e n t o c o m b i n e c a r e e r a n d m a r r i a g e t h a n i t i s for w o m e n t o d o so. S h e
c o m p a r e d 1 7 4 m e n w i t h 1 7 4 w o m e n l i s t e d i n Who's Who. T a b l e 2 s h o w s t h e
percentage of these m e n and w o m e n w h o had ever married.
Table 2. P e r c e n t Married in Who's Who Sample

[Data compiled by B. W. Hayes (1980).]
men women
single 9.7% 37.9%
ever
married 90.3% 62.1%
Successful m e n marry about as often as m e n in the general population, b u t

successful w o m e n are m o r e than s e v e n times as l i k e l y to remain single as other
women.
T a b l e 3 s h o w s that successful married m e n have about the same n u m b e r of
children as married m e n in the general population.
T a b l e 3. P e r c e n t of M a r r i a g e s in Who's Who Sample with V a r i o u s N u m b e r s of Children

[Data compiled by B. W. Hayes (1980).]
No. Children Men Women
0 9% 34%
1 12% 21%
2 29% 19%
3 18% 16%
4 15% 7%
5 or m o r e 7% 2%
Average no. children 2.48 1.46

per family
Successful married w o m e n , h o w e v e r , have f e w e r c h i l d r e n than other married

w o m e n . O f a l l t h e w o m e n i n t h e Who's Who s a m p l e , 5 0 p e r c e n t a r e c h i l d l e s s . A
similar pattern is found in w o m e n w h o have Ph.D.'s. O n l y 45 percent of w o m e n
w i t h doctorates are m a r r i e d ; 3 8 p e r c e n t h a v e n e v e r b e e n (Astin, 1969). O f the
female P h . D . ' s w h o are married, 80 p e r c e n t are married to professional m e n , and 30
percent h a v e no children (Simon, Clark, and G a l w a y , 1967). This is twice the
c h i l d l e s s r a t e for t h e g e n e r a l p o p u l a t i o n .
W o m e n , then, s e e m to have m o r e difficulty than m e n in c o m b i n i n g marriage
w i t h a successful career. W h y s h o u l d this be so?
I m a g i n e that y o u h a v e just b e g u n your career as a microbiologist at a pres-
t i g i o u s u n i v e r s i t y . Y o u w o r k f u l l - t i m e , are m a r r i e d , a n d h a v e a y o u n g c h i l d . Y o u r
b o s s h a s a g r e e d t o p a y y o u r e x p e n s e s for a w e e k - l o n g c o n f e r e n c e that w i l l a l l o w y o u
to k e e p abreast of recent d e v e l o p m e n t s in y o u r field. W h a t do y o u d o ?
If y o u are a m a n , y o u w o u l d p r o b a b l y say to yourself, " W h a t ' s the p r o b l e m ? I'm

going!" B u t if you're a w o m a n , the decision w o u l d not be so simple. Most likely it
w o u l d i n v o l v e j u g g l i n g a l o t o f factors b o t h i n r e a l i t y a n d i n y o u r m i n d . W h o w o u l d
d o t h e c o o k i n g a n d w a s h i n g ? W o u l d y o u b e a b l e t o f i n d a d e q u a t e c h i l d - c a r e ar-
r a n g e m e n t s for a n e n t i r e w e e k ? W o u l d y o u b e a b l e t o l e a v e y o u r c h i l d for a w h o l e
w e e k w i t h o u t w o r r y i n g a b o u t the c h i l d or a b o u t the possibility that y o u aren't a
g o o d m o t h e r for d o i n g s o ? M a n y m a r r i e d w o m e n w h o f a c e j u s t t h i s t y p e o f s i t u a t i o n
f i n d t h a t a s u p p o r t i v e h u s b a n d is a t r e m e n d o u s a s s e t . In t h i s s i t u a t i o n , a s u p p o r t i v e
h u s b a n d m a y b e o n e w h o w i l l t e l l y o u , " O f c o u r s e y o u s h o u l d g o . I'll t a k e c a r e o f
t h e b a b y , " or, " G r e a t i d e a . I'll g o w i t h y o u . L e t ' s c a l l y o u r f o l k s (or m i n e ) a n d s e e
i f t h e y c a n c o m e a n d stay w i t h t h e b a b y for t h a t w e e k . " A n o n - s u p p o r t i v e h u s b a n d
m i g h t s a y s o m e t h i n g l i k e , " W e l l , y o u r w o r k i n g i s o n e t h i n g , b u t b e i n g g o n e for a
w h o l e w e e k a n d l e a v i n g t h e b a b y h e r e w i t h m e i s a n o t h e r , " or, " I d o n ' t t h i n k it's
a g o o d i d e a for y o u t o g o . "
Married female Ph.D.'s, e v e n those with no children typically spend about 50

hours a w e e k doing housework. Married male Ph.D.'s, e v e n those w i t h children,
s p e n d l e s s t h a n 1 0 h o u r s a w e e k o n h o u s e h o l d c h o r e s (data c o m p i l e d b y G r i b b e n
and presented by Sells and Patterson in Rossi and C a l d e r w o o d [1973], pp. 79-91).
P e o p l e w h o w o r k 100 hours a w e e k o n r e s e a r c h a n d 5 0 m o r e o n h o u s e w o r k w o n ' t
survive very long, let alone w i n a N o b e l prize!
A b o u t eight percent of w o m e n Ph.D.'s allow a time lapse of over 27 years
b e t w e e n the B.A. a n d the P h . D . O n l y s e v e n p e r c e n t finish i n the n o r m a l four-year
period, w h i l e the majority o f m e n do. O n the average, w o m e n P h . D . ' s obtain their
d e g r e e s five y e a r s later than m e n (Astin, 1969). T h i s m e a n s that, o n the a v e r a g e ,
w o m e n Ph.D.'s h a v e five years less than m e n to devote to research. O n l y 81 percent
of female Ph.D.'s work full-time, as c o m p a r e d with 98 percent of male Ph.D.'s, and
2 1 p e r c e n t o f w o m e n P h . D . ' s i n t e r r u p t t h e i r l i f e ' s w o r k for a n a v e r a g e o f 1 4 m o n t h s
(Astin, 1969).
T h e s e differences b e t w e e n m a l e and female P h . D . ' s are not bizarre or unex-
p l a i n a b l e . T h e y a r e a c c o u n t e d for b y t h e fact t h a t w o m e n t a k e t i m e off t o h a v e a n d
c a r e for b a b i e s . O f c o u r s e , m e n s h a r e i n h a v i n g c h i l d r e n , b u t i t r a r e l y i n t e r r u p t s
their career.
U n t i l n o w , w e h a v e b e e n d i s c u s s i n g factors w i t h i n m a r r i a g e w h i c h c a n i m p e d e
the careers of creative w o m e n . S o m e t i m e s , though, marriage can stop a career dead!
H e r e are s o m e e x p e r i e n c e s r e p o r t e d b y u n s u c c e s s f u l w o m e n i n t h e s t u d y b y B o n d
and Hayes (1978):
My h u s b a n d w a s in favor of my returning to work, b u t n o w he is

a m b i v a l e n t . H e f e e l s i t i s t o o t i r i n g for m e a n d t h a t i f w e n e e d m o r e m o n e y ,
he should get a second job. ( G i n z b e r g a n d Y o h a l e m , 1966)
I could not complete my doctorate because w h e n my husband com-

p l e t e d his P h . D . , he found a j o b in another city and I w a s o b l i g e d to take
over the care of his four-year-old child by a previous marriage.
( G i n z b e r g a n d Y o h a l e m , 1966)
A l l o f m y c r e d i t s for t h e P h . D . w e r e c o m p l e t e d a n d q u a l i f y i n g e x a m s
passed by 1952. All that had to be d o n e w a s the thesis. H o w e v e r , my
h u s b a n d h a d o b t a i n e d h i s P h . D . a n d w a s l e a v i n g C o l u m b i a for post-
graduate w o r k at California Institute of T e c h n o l o g y . Of course, I w e n t w i t h
him. ( G i n z b e r g a n d Y o h a l e m , 1966)
I n h e r b o o k , Silences, O l s e n ( 1 9 7 8 ) m a k e s a v e r y p o w e r f u l c a s e t h a t m a n y
creative w o m e n writers have b e e n silenced by the d e m a n d s placed on them by
their roles as w i v e s and mothers. H e r e she describes her o w n circumstances as a

writer and mother:
C i r c u m s t a n c e s for s u s t a i n e d c r e a t i o n are a l m o s t i m p o s s i b l e . N o t b e c a u s e
t h e c a p a c i t i e s t o c r e a t e n o l o n g e r e x i s t , o r t h e n e e d ( t h o u g h for a w h i l e a s
in any fullness of life the n e e d m a y be o b s c u r e d ) , b u t . . . the n e e d cannot
b e first. I t c a n h a v e a t b e s t o n l y p a r t self, part t i m e . . . M o t h e r h o o d m e a n s
b e i n g instantly interruptible, responsive, responsible. C h i l d r e n n e e d one
now ( a n d r e m e m b e r , i n o u r s o c i e t y , t h e f a m i l y m u s t o f t e n try t o b e t h e
c e n t e r for l o v e a n d h e a l t h t h e o u t s i d e w o r l d i s n o t ) . T h e v e r y f a c t t h a t t h e s e
are n e e d s o f l o v e , n o t d u t y , t h a t o n e f e e l s t h e m a s o n e ' s self; that there i s
no one else to be responsible for these needs, g i v e s t h e m p r i m a c y . It is
distraction, not meditation, that b e c o m e s habitual; interruption, not con-
tinuity; s p a s m o d i c , not constant, toil. W o r k interrupted, d e f e r r e d , post-
poned makes b l o c k a g e — a t best, lesser accomplishment. U n u s e d capaci-
ties atrophy, c e a s e to b e .
For the professional w o m a n w h o does marry, marrying s o m e o n e w i t h similar

g o a l s , i n t e r e s t s , a n d o c c u p a t i o n a l status i s e x t r e m e l y i m p o r t a n t . D o i n g s o i n c r e a s e s
the likelihood that h e r partner w i l l understand, accept, and e n c o u r a g e w h a t she is
t r y i n g t o d o . M e n w h o a r e a l s o e n g a g e d i n c r e a t i v e p r o f e s s i o n a l w o r k are i n a g o o d
p o s i t i o n t o r e a l i z e its i n h e r e n t v a l u e a n d t h a t i t r e q u i r e s lots o f t i m e a n d h a r d w o r k .
E v e n w i t h a s u p p o r t i v e h u s b a n d w h o s h a r e s c h o r e s a n d c h i l d c a r e , i t still i s n ' t
e a s y for w o m e n i n o u r s o c i e t y t o c o m b i n e a c a r e e r , m a r r i a g e , a n d a f a m i l y . ( M e n ,
w e m i g h t n o t e , h a v e b e e n d o i n g s o for y e a r s . ) C h i l d c a r e c a n b e v e r y e x p e n s i v e .
S o m e e m p l o y e r s still h a v e n e p o t i s m r u l e s w h i c h p r e v e n t a h u s b a n d a n d w i f e f r o m
w o r k i n g a t t h e s a m e i n s t i t u t i o n . W e l l - m e a n i n g p e o p l e m a y still t e l l c a r e e r w o m e n
that t h e y a r e r u i n i n g t h e i r c h i l d r e n ' s l i v e s . I t i s n ' t e a s y — b u t i t c a n b e d o n e . O f t h e
17 professional w o m e n in our study, 16 stated that t h e y w e r e glad t h e y chose to
c o m b i n e a career w i t h marriage and a family, and that t h e y w e r e h a p p y w i t h their
lives. Of the 14 nonprofessional w o m e n in our study, nine reported dissatisfaction
with their lives.
Summary
Historically, w o m e n h a v e b e e n m u c h less creative than m e n . This does not

m e a n t h a t w o m e n a r e l e s s c r e a t i v e t h a n m e n b y n a t u r e . O u r c u l t u r e p r o v i d e s far
more opportunity and e n c o u r a g e m e n t to m e n to be creative than to w o m e n .
1. O u r c u l t u r e d i s c o u r a g e s w o m e n from taking an interest in s c i e n c e - r e l a t e d

fields and encourages them to be interested in homemaking.
2. O u r culture tends to u n d e r m i n e the confidence of w o m e n in their ability to
c o m p e t e in certain creative fields.
3. T h e r e are relatively f e w female role m o d e l s in creative fields.
4. M a l e s m a y resent and discriminate against females in professional educa-
tion and at work.
5 . I n o u r c u l t u r e i t i s m u c h m o r e d i f f i c u l t for w o m e n t o m i x m a r r i a g e a n d c a r e e r
t h a n i t i s for m e n . T h i s i s d u e t o t h e a s s u m p t i o n s t h a t d o m e s t i c d u t i e s s u c h
a s c o o k i n g a n d c h i l d c a r e are m o r e t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y o f w o m e n t h a n m e n ,
and that the h u s b a n d ' s career is more important than the wife's and, there-
fore, any conflict of interest m u s t be r e s o l v e d in favor of the h u s b a n d ' s
career.
T h e s e f a c t o r s , t a k e n t o g e t h e r , m a y w e l l a c c o u n t for t h e o b s e r v e d d i f f e r e n c e s i n
creativity b e t w e e n m e n and w o m e n .
THE CREATIVE A C C O M P L I S H M E N T OF JEWS
In the w e s t e r n w o r l d , J e w s constitute a very small proportion of the general

p o p u l a t i o n (less than o n e p e r c e n t in E u r o p e and less than three p e r c e n t in the
U n i t e d States). T h e y constitute a m u c h larger proportion of the creative population.
T a b l e 4 s h o w s this clearly.
W h y a r e J e w s s o c r e a t i v e ? W e b e l i e v e t h a t t h e p l a c e t o l o o k for t h e a n s w e r i s
in the J e w i s h family.
J e w s h a v e a l o w e r d i v o r c e rate, h i g h e r i n c o m e , and f e w e r c h i l d r e n than other
p e o p l e ( G o l d s t e i n and G o l d s c h e i d e r , 1968). M o s t J e w s l i v e in urban areas. All of
t h e s e f a c t o r s — s t a b l e h o m e s w i t h both parents present, h i g h i n c o m e , small family
s i z e , a n d l i v i n g i n a n u r b a n e n v i r o n m e n t are a s s o c i a t e d w i t h h i g h I Q ( L i p s e t a n d
L a d d , 1 9 7 4 ; P a t a i a n d W i n g , 1 9 7 5 ) . H o w e v e r , t h e r e are t w o factors w h i c h w e
b e l i e v e are m o r e i m p o r t a n t t h a n all o f t h e s e . T h e first i s J e w i s h r e s p e c t for s c h o l a r -
ship, and the second is the importance of the child in the J e w i s h family.
Table 4. A c c o m p l i s h m e n t s of Jews
[Based on data from Arieti, 1976; Ladd and Lipset, 1975; Lipset and Ladd, 1971, 1974; Patai and Wing, 1975; and Sherman, 1965.]
In the U.S., where less than 3% of the population are Jews:

1. Jews have w o n 2 7 % of Nobel Prizes awarded to Americans.
2. J e w i s h violin virtuosos occur at 12 to 25 times expectancy.
3 . 1 6 % o f J e w s are p r o f e s s i o n a l s , c o m p a r e d t o 1 0 % o f t h e e n t i r e p o p u l a t i o n .
4 . 1 0 % o f all c o l l e g e f a c u l t y m e m b e r s are J e w s ; 1 9 % o f f a c u l t y m e m b e r s a t e l i t e
c o l l e g e s are J e w s .
5 . 7 0 % o f J e w i s h f a c u l t y m e m b e r s are a t r e s e a r c h - o r i e n t e d u n i v e r s i t i e s .
6. 3 2 % of J e w s are at the highest quality universities, c o m p a r e d to 9% of non-
J e w i s h faculty.
7. 3 3 % of J e w i s h faculty m e m b e r s have over 10 publications, c o m p a r e d to 1 1 % of
C a t h o l i c a n d 1 5 % o f Protestant faculty m e m b e r s .
8 . 2 8 % o f J e w i s h f a c u l t y m e m b e r s are full p r o f e s s o r s a n d a t a y o u n g e r a g e (38
v e r s u s 40) t h a n n o n - J e w i s h f a c u l t y .
9 . 2 5 % o f l a w p r o f e s s o r s are J e w i s h .
10. 2 2 % of m e d i c a l faculty are J e w i s h .
1 1 . 2 1 % o f b i o c h e m i s t r y f a c u l t y are J e w i s h .
In Europe, where less than 1% of the population are Jews:

1 . S a r t o n ' s list o f s c h o l a r s i n E u r o p e t o 1 4 0 0 A . D . l i s t e d 1 0 . 6 % J e w s — t h r e e t i m e s
their proportion in E u r o p e at the time.
2 . J e w s h a v e w o n 1 6 % o f all N o b e l P r i z e s ( 1 9 0 1 - 1 9 7 2 ) a n d h a v e w o n 6 0 % o f t h e
Prizes in Economics, 2 4 % in Physiology and Medicine, and 2 0 % in Physics.
T h e ratio o f J e w i s h L a u r e a t e s i s 2 8 t i m e s g r e a t e r t h a n t h e r e s t o f t h e w o r l d
population.
3. In pre-Nazi Germany, 2 5 % of mathematicians, medical researchers, and
physicists w e r e J e w i s h — 3 0 times their population proportion.
4. In Italy in the 1930's, 5 0 % of m a t h e m a t i c i a n s w e r e J e w i s h .
5. In 1937, 9% of Soviet scholars w e r e Jewish.
6 . I n 1 9 4 7 , 1 6 % o f S t a l i n s c i e n c e a w a r d s a n d 1 4 % o f S t a l i n art a n d l i t e r a t u r e
awards went to Jews.
7 . 3 . 5 % o f B r i t i s h f a c u l t y are J e w i s h , a l t h o u g h J e w s c o n s t i t u t e l e s s t h a n 1 % o f t h e
British population (1965).
8. 7% of m e m b e r s of Britain's scientific honor society, the Royal A c a d e m y of
S c i e n c e , are J e w i s h ( 1 9 7 1 ) .
m o t h e r stand b y a n d w a t c h her c h i l d , w i t h s u c h a " g o o d h e a d , " g o straight

to h e l l ? (Sarason, 1973)
T h e c h a n n e l l i n g of the child's energies toward scholarly pursuits and away

f r o m d i s t r a c t i n g a c t i v i t i e s s e e m s t o w o r k . T h e f o l l o w i n g f i g u r e s , b a s e d o n d a t a from
L a d d and L i p s e t (1975) and S h e r m a n (1965), s h o w that a larger p e r c e n t a g e of Jews
in the U.S. go to c o l l e g e than non-Jews, and w h e n they get there they perform better
than non-Jews.
1 . 6 2 o u t o f e v e r y 1 0 0 c o l l e g e - a g e J e w s are i n c o l l e g e , c o m p a r e d t o 2 7 o u t o f e v e r y
100 n o n - J e w s .
2. J e w i s h c o l l e g e students are proportionately in better schools than non-Jewish
students.
3. Jews have better grade-point averages than non-Jews.
4 . J e w s are i n P h i B e t a K a p p a a t t w i c e t h e i r u n d e r g r a d u a t e p r o p o r t i o n .
In our society, scholarship is an important route to success. A d v a n c e d educa-

tion often l e a d s to a professional career, a g o o d i n c o m e , and an opportunity to do
creative work. Traditionally, scholarship has b e e n highly r e s p e c t e d by J e w s , and
the J e w i s h family has b e e n v e r y effective in t e a c h i n g this v a l u e to the J e w i s h child.
W e b e l i e v e t h a t i t i s b y t r a n s m i t t i n g r e s p e c t for s c h o l a r s h i p t o t h e y o u n g t h a t J e w i s h
culture has s u c c e e d e d in p r o d u c i n g such a large n u m b e r of creative p e o p l e .
THE A S I A N S
Asians are another h i g h l y creative minority w i t h i n A m e r i c a n culture. W h i l e

t h e y c o n s t i t u t e l e s s t h a n o n e p e r c e n t o f o u r p o p u l a t i o n , t h e y are o n e p e r c e n t o f t h e
u n d e r g r a d u a t e p o p u l a t i o n and t w o p e r c e n t of the graduate p o p u l a t i o n (Kitano,
1 9 7 6 ) . F o u r A s i a n A m e r i c a n s h a v e w o n N o b e l p r i z e s (all i n P h y s i c s ) . A r e m a r k a b l e
number of Asian Americans have b e c o m e outstanding musicians. M a n y Asian
A m e r i c a n s are p r o f e s s i o n a l s — 2 1 p e r c e n t of Japanese m a l e s and 30 p e r c e n t of
C h i n e s e males, as compared to 15 percent of non-Asian A m e r i c a n males (Almquist,
1979).
T h e r e are m a n y s i m i l a r i t i e s b e t w e e n A s i a n a n d J e w i s h s u b c u l t u r e s i n o u r
society. B o t h h a v e an ancient heritage w h i c h e s t e e m s scholarship and a stable
family e n v i r o n m e n t w h i c h encourages children to pursue scholarly careers.
F o r t h e J e w s , s c h o l a r s h i p h a s s t r o n g r e l i g i o u s o v e r t o n e s . F o r t h e A s i a n s , i t has
strong moral c o n n e c t i o n s .
F o r m a n y c e n t u r i e s [the C h i n e s e ] r e v e r e d w r i t t e n c h a r a c t e r s , w h i c h t h e y
b e l i e v e t o h a v e b e e n c r e a t e d b y p a s t s a g e s . T h e r e w e r e m a n y ' s o c i e t i e s for
saving papers with written characters.' T h e s e societies e m p l o y e d collec-
tors w h o r o a m e d a r o u n d t o w n , w i t h forks i n h a n d a n d b a s k e t s o n t h e i r
backs, gathering s u c h scattered p i e c e s . T h e bits w e r e then b u r n e d at the
l o c a l C o n f u c i a n t e m p l e . I t w a s b e l i e v e d that a p e r s o n w h o u s e d i n s c r i b e d
p a p e r s for t o i l e t p u r p o s e s w o u l d b e s t r u c k d e a d b y l i g h t n i n g . A n d o n e w h o
a c c i d e n t a l l y s t e p p e d on a b o o k m u s t p i c k it up and p l a c e it on his h e a d
m o m e n t a r i l y for p r o p i t i a t i o n . ( H s u , 1970)
T h e ultimate a c h i e v e m e n t w a s wisdom, and the Confucian w a y to wisdom was

by studying. A s i a n students w e r e e x p o s e d to stories of scholars w h o let nothing
interfere w i t h their desire to learn: " t h e m a n w h o put a r o p e around his n e c k and
tied it to the c e i l i n g to k e e p from falling a s l e e p or the m a n w h o u s e d a cageful of
fireflies to study at n i g h t or the m a n w h o p o u r e d ice w a t e r on his b o d y in w i n t e r to
stay a w a k e t o s t u d y " ( D o r e , 1 9 6 5 ; H o r i n o u c h i , 1 9 6 7 ) . W h i l e W e s t e r n e r s m a y f i n d
these stories e x c e s s i v e or g r u e s o m e , t h e y illustrate the d e g r e e to w h i c h scholarship
was esteemed by Asians.
T h e Family
A s i a n s h a v e t h e l o w e s t d i v o r c e rate (1.6 p e r c e n t ) o f a n y g r o u p i n the U n i t e d

States. T h e y h a v e a h i g h m a r r i a g e rate, h i g h h o m e o w n e r s h i p , h i g h i n c o m e , a n d
h i g h o c c u p a t i o n a l s t a t u s . U n e m p l o y m e n t i s rare a n d f a m i l y s i z e i s s m a l l . T h i s
pattern r e s e m b l e s that f o u n d a m o n g J e w s .
R e s p e c t for l e a r n i n g i s i n t e r w o v e n w i t h r e s p e c t for t h e f a m i l y a n d for t h e
C o n f u c i a n v a l u e s o f d i l i g e n c e a n d h a r d w o r k . C o n s i d e r t h e first a d m o n i t i o n i n a
Japanese school:
To be b o r n h u m a n and not be able to write is to be less than human.

Illiteracy is a form of b l i n d n e s s . It brings shame on your teacher, s h a m e on
y o u r parents a n d s h a m e on yourself. T h e heart of a c h i l d of three stays w i t h
h i m till he is a h u n d r e d as the p r o v e r b says. D e t e r m i n e to s u c c e e d , study
w i t h all y o u r m i g h t , n e v e r f o r g e t t i n g t h e s h a m e o f f a i l u r e .
(Dore, 1965)
T h e p r e c e p t w a s also taught at h o m e : " B y learning w e l l , y o u w i l l honor your family

n a m e " (Horinouchi, 1967). O n e y o u n g man recalled:
W h e n I w a s s e n t t o s c h o o l I w a s e x p e c t e d t o try m y b e s t a n d t o g e t g o o d
g r a d e s — t h e r e w a s no q u e s t i o n a b o u t this in my or my parents' m i n d . I
g u e s s it's j u s t l i k e m y m o t h e r a n d f a t h e r — i f M o m i r o n e d a shirt, s h e h a d
t o d o b e s t ; i f m y D a d d u g a d i t c h h e h a d t o d o i t j u s t r i g h t . S o d i d all o f t h e
other N i s e i kids. I g u e s s that's w h y so m a n y of us w e r e on the H o n o r Roll.
(Kitano, 1976)
L i k e the Jews, Asians encourage some activities and discourage others. T h e

A s i a n c o m m u n i t y r e i n f o r c e s t h e f a m i l y i n e n f o r c i n g its v a l u e s . O n e m a n r e c a l l s h o w
the community dealt with an instance of delinquency:
I k n e w these t w o brothers w h o w e r e pretty wild. T h e y w o u l d get d r u n k . . .

w e r e always fighting, always in trouble and w e r e uncontrollable. Finally,
their father c a m e to talk to my father and other J a p a n e s e families in the
n e i g h b o r h o o d . . . all a g r e e d t h a t t h e s e b o y s w o u l d h u r t t h e r e p u t a t i o n o f
t h e o t h e r J a p a n e s e a n d p r o v i d e p o o r m o d e l s for t h e y o u n g e r b o y s . . . s o
e v e n though the brothers w e r e already y o u n g adults and out of high school,
t h e y w e r e s e n t b a c k t o J a p a n i n 1 9 3 7 . A s far a s I k n o w , t h e y n e v e r c a m e
b a c k to the U n i t e d States. (Kitano, 1976)
T h e A s i a n s h a v e t h e l o w e s t c r i m e rate i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . I t i s p r o b a b l y n o
a c c i d e n t t h a t t h e y h a v e t h e l o w e s t s c h o o l d r o p - o u t rate o f a n y g r o u p i n t h e c o u n t r y .
D r o p p i n g out of high school "is considered a disgrace in an Asian c o m m u n i t y "
(Horinouchi, 1967).
Conclusion
Asians, like J e w s , form a remarkably creative subculture in A m e r i c a . L i k e the

Jews, Asians have an ancient heritage w h i c h places a high value on scholarship
a n d , l i k e t h e J e w s , t h e y p r o v i d e a s t a b l e f a m i l y e n v i r o n m e n t i n w h i c h c h i l d r e n are
e n c o u r a g e d to w o r k hard and to pursue scholarly careers. Further, in both groups
d e v i a t i o n s from this i d e a l pattern, e.g., d r o p p i n g out of s c h o o l , are a c t i v e l y dis-
couraged.
BLACKS
T h e r e are s e v e r a l factors w h i c h c a n s e r i o u s l y t h w a r t c r e a t i v e effort:

1. lack of education
2. lack of opportunity
3. lack of support
H o w Social Conditions Affect Creativity 23 7
Unfortunately, blacks h a v e b e e n the victim of all three. P h y s i c a l l y r e m o v e d

against their w i l l from their native land, t h e y w e r e m a d e to serve a society w h i c h
w o u l d n e i t h e r t e a c h t h e m h o w t o b e c o m e its m e m b e r s , n o r a l l o w t h e m t o r e t a i n
their heritage. As a c o n s e q u e n c e , blacks have b e e n doubly d e n i e d a culture and
cultural values.
I n a d e q u a t e Education
W h e n t h e s l a v e s w e r e f r e e d , t h e y w e r e b a r r e d b y l a w f r o m m a n y j o b s a n d from
most schools. E a g e r to learn, t h e y set up their o w n schools, b u t these w e r e gener-
a l l y staffed b y b l a c k s w i t h l i t t l e m o r e e d u c a t i o n t h a n t h e i r p u p i l s .
S e g r e g a t e d s c h o o l s w e r e t h e n o r m u n t i l t h e S u p r e m e C o u r t r u l e d i n 1 9 5 4 that
s e p a r a t e i s n o t e q u a l . I t s t i l l i s n ' t . M o s t b l a c k s still a t t e n d s e g r e g a t e d s c h o o l s . I n
Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi, less than one p e r c e n t of black students attend
s c h o o l w i t h w h i t e s ( P i n k n e y , 1 9 6 9 ) . I n t h e N o r t h i n 1 9 6 6 , 6 5 p e r c e n t o f b l a c k first
g r a d e r s a t t e n d e d s c h o o l s w h i c h w e r e 9 0 t o 100 p e r c e n t b l a c k ( U . S . D e p a r t m e n t o f
Health, E d u c a t i o n , a n d Welfare, 1966). A b o u t 60 p e r c e n t of b l a c k c o l l e g e students
a t t e n d b l a c k c o l l e g e s , o f w h i c h t h e r e are 1 2 3 . H o w e v e r , o n l y 6 3 p e r c e n t o f t h e m are
a c c r e d i t e d ( U . S . D e p a r t m e n t o f C o m m e r c e , 1966). I n five s o u t h e r n states i n 1954,
t h e r e w e r e 1.8 b o o k s p e r p u p i l i n b l a c k s c h o o l l i b r a r i e s , b u t 4.8 p e r p u p i l i n w h i t e
school libraries (Ashmore, 1954). In black high schools, in 1966, 20 percent w e r e
w i t h o u t p h y s i c s e q u i p m e n t c o m p a r e d t o six p e r c e n t o f w h i t e s c h o o l s ( U . S . D e p a r t -
m e n t o f H e a l t h , E d u c a t i o n , a n d W e l f a r e , 1966).
A l t h o u g h o n l y a b o u t 25 p e r c e n t of b l a c k s l i v e in rural areas today, in 1900, 90
p e r c e n t did (U.S. B u r e a u of the C e n s u s , 1966). M a n y adult blacks a t t e n d e d a school
l i k e t h e o n e d e s c r i b e d b e l o w in an e x c e r p t f r o m Growing Up in the Black Belt. A n d
it is not as t h o u g h urban b l a c k s h a v e it any better. F u l l y two-thirds are m e m b e r s of
the l o w e r class a n d attend p r e d o m i n a t e l y black schools ( P i n k n e y , 1969).
It is in a d i l a p i d a t e d b u i l d i n g , o n c e w h i t e w a s h e d , standing in a rocky field

u n f i t for c u l t i v a t i o n . D u s t - c o v e r e d w e e d s s p r e a d a c a r p e t all a r o u n d , e x c e p t
for a n u n e v e n , b a r e a r e a o n o n e s i d e w h i c h l o o k s l i k e a b a l l f i e l d . B e h i n d
the school is a small b u i l d i n g w i t h a broken, sagging door. As we approach,
a nervous m i d d l e - a g e d w o m a n c o m e s to the door of the school. She greets
us in a discouraged voice marred by a s p e e c h i m p e d i m e n t . Escorted inside,
w e o b s e r v e that the b r o k e n b e n c h e s are c r o w d e d t o three t i m e s their normal
c a p a c i t y . O n l y a f e w b a t t e r e d b o o k s are i n s i g h t , a n d w e l o o k i n v a i n for
m a p s o r c h a r t s . W e l e a r n t h a t f o u r g r a d e s are a s s e m b l e d h e r e .
(Johnson, 1941)
In the face of all this, it is a tribute to the p e r s e v e r a n c e of b l a c k p e o p l e that they

have reduced their illiteracy 70 percent in about 70 years. Unfortunately, to be
creative in a t e c h n o l o g i c a l l y a d v a n c e d society like ours, that is not g o o d e n o u g h . To
c o m p e t e for t h e c r e a t i v e o c c u p a t i o n s , b l a c k s n e e d e d u c a t i o n a n d t r a i n i n g e q u a l t o
w h i t e s . S o far, s o c i e t y h a s n o t p r o v i d e d that.
Lack of O p p o r t u n i t y
M a l c o l m X r e c o u n t e d i n h i s a u t o b i o g r a p h y a n all t o o t y p i c a l e x a m p l e :
I k n o w t h a t h e [the t e a c h e r ] p r o b a b l y m e a n t w e l l i n w h a t h e h a p p e n e d t o
a d v i s e me that day. I d o u b t that he m e a n t any harm. It w a s j u s t in his nature
as an A m e r i c a n w h i t e m a n . I w a s o n e of his top students, o n e of the school's
t o p s t u d e n t s — b u t a l l h e c o u l d s e e for m e w a s t h e k i n d o f f u t u r e ' i n y o u r
p l a c e ' t h a t a l l w h i t e p e o p l e s e e for b l a c k p e o p l e .
He told m e , " M a l c o l m , y o u ought to be thinking about a career. Have
you been giving it thought?"
T h e t r u t h is, I h a d n ' t . I n e v e r h a v e f i g u r e d o u t w h y I t o l d h i m , " W e l l ,

y e s , sir, I ' v e b e e n t h i n k i n g I ' d l i k e t o b e a l a w y e r . " L a n s i n g c e r t a i n l y h a d
no N e g r o l a w y e r s — o r doctors e i t h e r — i n those days, to hold up an image
I m i g h t h a v e a s p i r e d to. A l l I r e a l l y k n e w for c e r t a i n w a s t h a t a l a w y e r
didn't w a s h dishes, as I was doing.
Mr. O s t r o w s k i l o o k e d surprised, I r e m e m b e r , a n d l e a n e d b a c k in his
chair a n d c l a s p e d his hands b e h i n d his h e a d . H e k i n d o f half-smiled and
s a i d , " M a l c o l m , o n e o f l i f e ' s first n e e d s i s for u s t o b e r e a l i s t i c . D o n ' t
m i s u n d e r s t a n d m e , n o w . W e a l l h e r e l i k e y o u , y o u k n o w that. B u t y o u ' v e
got to be realistic about b e i n g a nigger. A l a w y e r — t h a t ' s no realistic goal
for a n i g g e r . Y o u n e e d t o t h i n k a b o u t s o m e t h i n g y o u can b e . Y o u ' r e g o o d
with your h a n d s — m a k i n g things. E v e r y b o d y admires your carpentry shop
work. W h y don't y o u plan on carpentry? People like y o u as a p e r s o n —
y o u ' d g e t all k i n d s o f w o r k . "
T h e m o r e I t h o u g h t afterwards about w h a t he said, the m o r e u n e a s y it
made me. It just kept treading around in my mind.
What m a d e it really begin to disturb me was Mr. Ostrowski's advice to
others in my c l a s s — a l l of t h e m white. Most of t h e m had told him they w e r e
p l a n n i n g to b e c o m e farmers, like their p a r e n t s — t o one day take over their
f a m i l y f a r m s . B u t t h o s e w h o w a n t e d t o s t r i k e o u t o n t h e i r o w n , t o try
something n e w , he had encouraged. S o m e , mostly girls, w a n t e d to be
teachers. A few w a n t e d other professions, such as one boy w h o wanted to
b e c o m e a c o u n t y agent; another, a veterinarian; a n d o n e girl w a n t e d to be
a n u r s e . T h e y all r e p o r t e d t h a t M r . O s t r o w s k i h a d e n c o u r a g e d w h a t e v e r
they had wanted. Yet nearly none of them had earned marks equal to mine.
It w a s a surprising t h i n g that I h a d n e v e r t h o u g h t of it that w a y before,
b u t I r e a l i z e d t h a t w h a t e v e r I w a s n ' t , I was s m a r t e r t h a n n e a r l y all of t h o s e
w h i t e k i d s . B u t a p p a r e n t l y I w a s still n o t i n t e l l i g e n t e n o u g h , i n t h e i r e y e s ,
to b e c o m e w h a t e v e r I w a n t e d to be.
It w a s t h e n that I b e g a n to c h a n g e — i n s i d e . ( M a l c o l m X , 1964)
No matter h o w bright or h a r d w o r k i n g an i n d i v i d u a l is, if opportunity to be

creative is d e n i e d , there can be no creativity.
Lack of Support
Blacks h a v e h i g h e r u n e m p l o y m e n t , l o w e r i n c o m e , less education, and more

c h i l d r e n than w h i t e p e o p l e . O n l y one-third o w n their o w n h o m e s . T h e d i v o r c e rate
a m o n g b l a c k s i s 2 3 p e r c e n t , t h e i l l e g i t i m a c y rate i s 2 5 p e r c e n t , a n d 2 5 p e r c e n t o f
b l a c k h o u s e h o l d s are h e a d e d b y females w i t h n o m a l e p r e s e n t (Pinkney, 1969; U.S.
D e p a r t m e n t o f L a b o r , 1965). H o w d o t h e s e grim statistics affect the b l a c k c h i l d ?
F i r s t , s u c h a p a t t e r n a l l o w s l i t t l e c h a n c e for e s c a p e . C h i l d r e n w h o g r o w u p i n
an i m p o v e r i s h e d e n v i r o n m e n t h a v e little e x p o s u r e to the range of options society
c a n offer. R o l e m o d e l s a r e l i k e l y t o b e t h e t o u g h e s t k i d s o n t h e b l o c k , r a t h e r t h a n
scholars. C h i l d r e n in an i m p o v e r i s h e d e n v i r o n m e n t are p r o b a b l y not s u r r o u n d e d
b y b o o k s o r s t i m u l a t i n g toys. T h e y m a y n e i t h e r b e e n c o u r a g e d t o study nor re-
w a r d e d for d o i n g s o . C h a n c e s a r e t h a t t h e p e o p l e t h e y i n t e r a c t w i t h o n a d a i l y
b a s i s — t h e i r friends a n d n e i g h b o r s — a r e i n the same p r e d i c a m e n t t h e y are. T h e y
p r o b a b l y a t t e n d a n i l l - e q u i p p e d s c h o o l w h i c h offers l i t t l e s t i m u l a t i o n . A s a r e s u l t o f
b e i n g raised in a b r o k e n h o m e , they may not learn the values and behaviors neces-
sary to a c h i e v e s u c c e s s in our s o c i e t y ( C o m e r , 1967). F u r t h e r , the a b s e n c e of a
s t r o n g m a l e r o l e m o d e l m a y m a k e i t d i f f i c u l t for m a l e c h i l d r e n t o d e v e l o p g o o d w o r k
habits (Ginzberg, 1956).
C h i l d r e n f r o m s u c h a n e n v i r o n m e n t m a y still a s p i r e t o a c h i e v e — i n d e e d , m a n y
do (Pinkney, 1969), and m a n y have. B u t to do so requires o v e r c o m i n g tremendous
o d d s . W i t h o u t m o n e y , a g o o d e d u c a t i o n , a s t a b l e h o m e , a s t r o n g v a l u e for s c h o l a r -
ship, a n d w i t h o u t e n c o u r a g i n g friends a n d family, the task s e e m s e n o r m o u s .
T h e r e i s h o p e o f b r e a k i n g this pattern, b u t m o s t o f t h e c h a n g e s m u s t c o m e from

sources external to blacks.
M o r e and better jobs, especially jobs which pay and promote nondiscrimi-
n a t e l y , w o u l d h e l p . I n 1 9 6 6 , a b l a c k w i t h s o m e c o l l e g e e d u c a t i o n w a s still e a r n i n g
less than a w h i t e w i t h an eighth-grade education (Fein, 1966). Better housing and
more a c c e s s i b l e h o m e o w n e r s h i p could add a sense of stability and security. An
i m p r o v e d e n v i r o n m e n t can increase a child's I Q ; a d e p r e s s e d environment can
m a k e i t g o d o w n (Patai a n d W i n g , 1 9 7 5 ) . B e t t e r e q u i p p e d a n d s t a f f e d s c h o o l s c o u l d
h e l p e q u a l i z e the educational situation. Studies s h o w that as schools improve,
p e r f o r m a n c e i m p r o v e s (Patai a n d W i n g , 1975). T h e s e c h a n g e s , t h o u g h , m u s t c o m e
from the larger society.
F r o m w i t h i n the b l a c k c o m m u n i t y , h e l p can c o m e from blacks w h o h a v e suc-
c e e d e d and w h o are w i l l i n g t o w o r k w i t h those w h o h a v e not, a n d t h e r e b y serve a s
role models.
H e l p can also c o m e from the c h u r c h , as it has in the past, i n t h e d r i v e for c i v i l
rights. T h e c h u r c h has b e e n the outstanding social institution in the black commu-
nity, the p l a c e w h e r e b l a c k s h a v e f o u n d refuge and e m o t i o n a l r e l i e f . Its r o l e i n t h e
future m u s t b e e v e n m o r e d e m a n d i n g i f blacks are t o b r e a k the pattern we have
discussed.
B l e a k as t h e p i c t u r e m a y b e , it has s o m e p o s i t i v e notes. B l a c k s are p r o g r e s s i n g
a n d i n d e e d h a v e m a d e t r e m e n d o u s contributions in literature, m u s i c , sports, enter-
tainment, and dance. F o u r blacks (two Americans) h a v e w o n the N o b e l prize. About
10 p e r c e n t of b l a c k s are professionally e m p l o y e d (Almquist, 1979).
Further, fully 80 p e r c e n t of mothers of black college students work outside the
h o m e (Willie and M c C o r d , 1972). While many probably do so by necessity, none-
theless, as we h a v e seen in our discussion of w o m e n , a w o r k i n g mother is the best
assurance that h e r c h i l d r e n , e s p e c i a l l y h e r f e m a l e c h i l d r e n , w i l l also work.
In those black families w h i c h are stable and m i d d l e class, education is empha-
s i z e d a n d e n c o u r a g e d . M o r e blacks are attending c o l l e g e , setting h i g h e r goals, and
getting better jobs than ever before (Willie and M c C o r d , 1972).
T h e major difference b e t w e e n b l a c k a n d w h i t e families a p p e a r s t o b e o n e o f
class, not color. " A s soon as blacks enter the m i d d l e class, family patterns associated
with the l o w e r class t e n d to disappear. T h e differences b e t w e e n black and white
f a m i l y p a t t e r n s , t h e n , a r e l a r g e l y t h e r e s u l t o f status i n t h e s o c i e t y " ( P i n k n e y , 1 9 6 9 ) .
B e c a u s e t h e b l a c k l o w e r c l a s s i s s o l a r g e , p r o b l e m s l o o m l a r g e . P e r h a p s a s status
improves, the creative potential of blacks will likewise improve.
C O M P A R I N G A S I A N S A N D BLACKS
Asians are s o m e t i m e s h e l d up to blacks as " m o d e l minorities" (Almquist, 1979),

the i m p l i c a t i o n b e i n g that if Asians c o u l d b e c o m e successful, blacks can, too.
H o w e v e r , as A l m q u i s t points out, there are a n u m b e r of w a y s in w h i c h this impli-
cation is unfair.
First, m a n y A s i a n s c a m e to this country as h i g h l y s k i l l e d w o r k e r s . O v e r 60
percent of A s i a n immigrants in the 1950's w e r e classified as w h i t e collar workers
( A l m q u i s t , 1 9 7 9 ) . S e c o n d , A s i a n s a r e l e s s t h a n o n e p e r c e n t o f o u r p o p u l a t i o n , o r 1.3
million p e o p l e . B l a c k s , n u m b e r i n g 20 million, are not as easily a b s o r b e d by the
work force.
T h i r d , w h i l e A s i a n s h a v e b e e n s u b j e c t e d t o d i s c r i m i n a t i o n (for e x a m p l e , t h e
internment of Japanese A m e r i c a n s during W o r l d W a r II), it can in no w a y be
c o m p a r e d to 200 years of slavery w h i c h d e p r i v e d an entire p e o p l e of their dignity,
heritage, civil rights, and property. Fourth, Asians chose to c o m e here and v i e w e d
the United States as a place of opportunity. Fifth, the strong Asian communities can
accommodate newcomers and provide them with housing and jobs.
Asian creative a c h i e v e m e n t is certainly to be e m u l a t e d , b u t it is unfair to

suggest that if Asians h a v e " m a d e it," blacks s h o u l d h a v e " m a d e it," too. T h e
p r o b l e m s that b l a c k s h a v e faced are e x t r e m e l y s e v e r e ones a n d t h e y are b y n o
means solved. D e s p i t e t h e s e difficulties, blacks h a v e m a d e v e r y respectable prog-
ress.
AMERICAN INDIANS
Statistics on A m e r i c a n Indians are not encouraging. T h e a v e r a g e educational
l e v e l a m o n g I n d i a n s i s 9.8. O n l y o n e - t h i r d f i n i s h h i g h s c h o o l . M a n y a r e f u n c t i o n a l l y
illiterate (Wax, 1971). One-third live in poverty, m a k i n g t h e m the ranking poverty
group in this country (Almquist, 1979). U n e m p l o y m e n t is chronic, and has at times
r e a c h e d 80 p e r c e n t a m o n g those l i v i n g on reservations, as o v e r 60 p e r c e n t do (Wax,
1 9 7 1 ) . I n d i a n s h a v e t h e h i g h e s t birth rate a n d l o w e s t life e x p e c t a n c y o f a n y g r o u p
in our country.
W h e n E u r o p e a n s o c c u p i e d the North American continent, the Indian popula-
t i o n w a s g r e a t l y r e d u c e d — f r o m o v e r o n e m i l l i o n i n 1 4 9 2 t o 220,000 i n 1 9 1 0
(Almquist, 1 9 7 9 ) — a n d their usual means of livelihood was removed.
W h e n the buffaloes w e r e destroyed . . . the Sioux w e r e d e p r i v e d not only

of food, b u t also of culturally significant activities. T h e tribal societies
c o n c e r n e d w i t h w a r a n d h u n t i n g lost their functions a n d atrophied. T h e
arts a n d t e c h n i q u e s s u r r o u n d i n g t h e b u f f a l o h u n t . . . w h i c h h a d o n c e b e e n
s o u r c e s o f s o c i a l status a n d o f p r i d e i n w o r k m a n s h i p , w e r e n o w r e n d e r e d
useless. (Barber, 1941)
Indian cultures are quite diverse. T h e r e are h u n d r e d s of distinct tribes w h i c h

m a y differ greatly from o n e another in l a n g u a g e and c u s t o m s . U n l i k e J e w i s h cul-
ture, though, Indian cultures typically do not m e s h w e l l w i t h the dominant Amer-
ican culture. C o n s i d e r this letter sent to the Virginia C o m m i s s i o n in 1744 regarding
a n i n v i t a t i o n for six I n d i a n c h i l d r e n t o a t t e n d W i l l i a m a n d M a r y C o l l e g e :
Several of our y o u n g p e o p l e w e r e formerly brought up at C o l l e g e s of the

N o r t h e r n P r o v i n c e s ; t h e y w e r e i n s t r u c t e d i n all y o u r s c i e n c e s ; b u t w h e n
they came back to us, they w e r e bad runners, ignorant of every means of
living in the woods, unable to bear either cold or hunger, k n e w neither
h o w to b u i l d a cabin, take a deer, or kill an e n e m y , spoke our language
i m p e r f e c t l y , w e r e t h e r e f o r e n e i t h e r fit for h u n t e r s , w a r r i o r s , o r c o u n s e l l o r s ,
t h e y w e r e t o t a l l y g o o d for n o t h i n g . W e a r e , h o w e v e r , n o t t h e l e s s o b l i g e d
b y y o u r k i n d offer, t h o u g h w e d e c l i n e a c c e p t i n g it; a n d t o s h o w o u r g r a t e f u l
S e n s e o f it, i f t h e G e n t l e m e n o f V i r g i n i a w i l l s e n d u s a D o z e n o f t h e i r S o n s
w e w i l l t a k e c a r e o f t h e i r e d u c a t i o n , i n s t r u c t t h e m i n all w e k n o w , a n d
make M e n of them. (Noel, 1968)
A l t h o u g h t h i s l e t t e r w a s w r i t t e n o v e r 200 y e a r s a g o , i t v o i c e s t h e a t t i t u d e s o f
m a n y I n d i a n s t o d a y . T h e " W h i t e M a n ' s " e d u c a t i o n i s still n o t v i e w e d a s w o r t h -
w h i l e . F o r I n d i a n s , the school d r o p o u t rate i s v e r y h i g h . I n m a n y c a s e s , d r o p p i n g
out can be attributed directly to conflicts b e t w e e n the local Indian culture and the
dominant culture. For example, many southwest Indians do not b e l i e v e in making
d e c i s i o n s for o t h e r p e o p l e o r i n a d v i s i n g t h e m .
I n d i a n s do not b e l i e v e that o n e p e r s o n s h o u l d tell a n o t h e r w h a t to do

o r t h a t e n d l e s s h o u r s s h o u l d b e w a s t e d i n p e r s u a d i n g a n o t h e r . F r o m in-
f a n c y , I n d i a n s a r e t a u g h t t o r e s p e c t t h e r i g h t s o f o t h e r s a n d t o a v o i d inter-
fering with other people. E v e n if another person is placing himself or
herself in great physical danger, the Indian will not tell the person what to
do. Passengers in an automobile will remain silent rather than w a r n the
driver of a rock slide or a steer in the road. To w a r n the driver w o u l d
constitute interference. (Almquist, 1979)
T h i s a s p e c t o f t h e i r c u l t u r e l e a d s I n d i a n c h i l d r e n t o d r o p o u t o f s c h o o l a n d , further,
to make the decision to drop out of school on their own, without discussion or
parental guidance.
B e i n g b a r e l y l i t e r a t e a n d n o t e s t e e m i n g t h e v a l u e s o f t h e l a r g e r s o c i e t y has
m a d e f i n d i n g e m p l o y m e n t d i f f i c u l t for I n d i a n s . W a x ( 1 9 7 1 ) s a y s
He m a y be a s h r e w d j u d g e of h u m a n character, be strong, loyal, reliable,

and w i l l i n g to work, b u t he will be lucky if he gains e v e n the most menial
and poorly paying employment.
T h e i r o w n c u l t u r e m a k e s i t d i f f i c u l t for n a t i v e A m e r i c a n s t o o b t a i n e d u c a t i o n
and e m p l o y m e n t in the U n i t e d States. Further, it m a k e s it u n l i k e l y that t h e y w o u l d
be able or i n c l i n e d to be creative w i t h i n the framework of our culture.
CONCLUSION
If your society
1. values intellectual activities,
and
2. encourages you to be interested in intellectual activities,
and
3. e n c o u r a g e s y o u to b e l i e v e that y o u can s u c c e e d in intellectual activities,
and
4. helps y o u to obtain necessary education,
and
5. does not impose other occupations on y o u w h i c h p r e e m p t your time,
then your chances of b e c o m i n g a creative person will be m u c h better than average.
H o w e v e r , i f a n y o f t h e s e c o n d i t i o n s i s v i o l a t e d b e c a u s e y o u are a b l a c k , a w o m a n ,
a N a t i v e A m e r i c a n , o r for w h a t e v e r r e a s o n , t h e n y o u r c h a n c e s o f b e c o m i n g a c r e a -
tive person will be greatly reduced.
T h e s e observations a b o u t the social conditions of creativity h a v e implications
b o t h for t h e i n d i v i d u a l a n d for s o c i e t y a s a w h o l e .
First, i n d i v i d u a l s should be aware of social pressures w h i c h m a y t e n d to b l o c k
their creative d e v e l o p m e n t . Ask yourself these questions about your upbringing:
• In h i g h s c h o o l , w a s it more important to be a g o o d s t u d e n t or a g o o d athlete?

• D i d your friends consider it unfeminine to be intellectual?
• W e r e y o u w o r r i e d that y o u m i g h t lose y o u r religion if y o u t h o u g h t too d e e p l y
about science or philosophy?
• Have you m o d e l e d your o w n career on someone you k n e w w e l l ?
• Was there pressure on y o u at h o m e to get good grades?
• D i d your parents e x p e c t y o u to b e c o m e a professional?
• W e r e your parents interested in intellectual things?
In a n s w e r i n g t h e s e questions, most p e o p l e can identify m a n y social pressures

w h i c h h a v e p u s h e d t h e m either toward o r a w a y from intellectual pursuits. B e i n g
aware of the pressures w h i c h have influenced you and w h i c h may influence you
in the future can h e l p y o u to take a m o r e active role in d e t e r m i n i n g your o w n
creativity.
I f s o c i e t y s u g g e s t s t h a t y o u c a n ' t b e c r e a t i v e b e c a u s e o f y o u r r a c e o r sex, y o u
n e e d n ' t be d e t e r r e d if y o u u n d e r s t a n d that the fault is in society a n d not in you. Y o u
c a n s e t g o a l s for y o u r s e l f — a s M a l c o l m X a n d M a r y S o m e r v i l l e d i d — f a r b e y o n d t h e
g o a l s o t h e r s m i g h t try t o s e t for y o u . Y o u c a n c o n s c i o u s l y s e e k a r o l e m o d e l for
y o u r s e l f a m o n g t h e p e o p l e y o u k n o w w h o are o u t s t a n d i n g i n y o u r f i e l d o r b y
r e a d i n g b i o g r a p h i e s . Y o u can s e e k out p e o p l e i n y o u r field and ask t h e m h o w t h e y
" m a d e it." Y o u can resist p r e s s u r e s from y o u r friends t o b e " r e g u l a r " a n d c h o o s e

instead to be special.
T h e observations in this chapter should lead us to ask s o m e v e r y serious q u e s -
tions about our culture. C l e a r l y , our culture d e p e n d s on the w o r k of creative p e o p l e
for its w e l l - b e i n g . I t d e p e n d s o n t h e m t o s o l v e p r o b l e m s o f p o l l u t i o n , o f p o p u l a t i o n ,
of food and e n e r g y production, and of disease. It d e p e n d s on t h e m to p r o d u c e n e w
m u s i c , art, d a n c e , a n d l i t e r a t u r e . W h i l e o u r s o c i e t y d e p e n d s o n c r e a t i v e p o e p l e , i t
does not appear to be very interested in fostering their d e v e l o p m e n t . For example,
w h y do basketball superstars earn more than N o b e l prize w i n n e r s ? Is it b e c a u s e
basketball players do more to reduce disease or increase food production? W h y do
advertising e x e c u t i v e s earn more than c o l l e g e professors? Do t h e y contribute more
t o art a n d k n o w l e d g e ? W h y d o e s o u r s o c i e t y i n s i s t t h a t w o m e n , r e g a r d l e s s o f t h e i r
potential creativity, raise their c h i l d r e n personally, rather than be p r o v i d e d w i t h
a d e q u a t e c h i l d - c a r e f a c i l i t i e s ? W h y are t h e r e a t h l e t i c s c h o l a r s h i p s ? W o u l d n ' t t h e
m o n e y b e b e t t e r s p e n t o n p e o p l e w h o are g o o d a t i n t e l l e c t u a l r a t h e r t h a n a t h l e t i c
s k i l l s ? W h y d o e s o u r s c h o o l s y s t e m p u t s u c h e m p h a s i s o n its a t h l e t i c p r o g r a m s ?
W h y is it that w h e n we look at our h i g h schools, we are v e r y l i k e l y to s e e a sign
saying, " H o m e of the Fighting W o m b a t s , " but nothing about the school's academic
achievements?
T h e r e a r e m a n y s u c h q u e s t i o n s t o ask. A s k i n g t h e m a n d p r o v i d i n g s e n s i b l e
a n s w e r s c o u l d b e c r u c i a l for t h e s u r v i v a l o f o u r s o c i e t y .
REFERENCES
Almquist, E . M . Minorities, Gender, and Work. Lexington, MA: Lexington Books,

1979.
A l m q u i s t , E . M . , and Angrist, S.S. " R o l e M o d e l I n f l u e n c e s o n C o l l e g e W o m e n ' s

C a r e e r A s p i r a t i o n s . " I n The Professional Game, e d i t e d b y A . T h e o d o r e . C a m -
b r i d g e , M A : S c h e n k m a n P u b l i s h i n g C o . , Inc., 1 9 7 1 .
A n g r i s t , S . S . , a n d A l m q u i s t , E . M . Careers and Contingencies. N e w York: Dunellen,

1975.
A r i e t i , S. Creativity: The Magic Synthesis. N e w York: Basic B o o k s , Inc., Publishers,

1976.
A s h m o r e , H . S . The Negro and the Schools. Chapel Hill, N C : The U n i v e r s i t y of

North Carolina Press, 1954.
A s t i n , H . S . The Woman Doctorate in America. N e w York: Russell Sage Foundation,

1969.
B a r b e r , B. " A c c u l t u r a t i o n a n d Messianic M o v e m e n t s . " American Sociological Re-

view, 6 ( 1 0 ) , 6 5 3 - 6 7 3 , 1 9 4 1 .
B o n d , S.J., a n d H a y e s , J.R. A Comparison of Successful and Unsuccessful Profes-

sional Women. U n p u b l i s h e d m a n u s c r i p t , 1 9 7 8 .
B r o d y , E . B . , a n d B r o d y , N. Intelligence: Nature, Determinants, and Consequences.

N e w York: A c a d e m i c Press, Inc., 1976.
C a n t o r , M. " W h y I am a S o c i o l o g i s t . " In Graduate and Professional Education of

Women. P r o c e e d i n g s o f A A U W C o n f e r e n c e , W a s h i n g t o n , D . C . , M a y , 1 9 7 4 .
C o m e r , J.P. "The S o c i a l P o w e r o f t h e N e g r o . " Scientific American, 2 1 6 ( 4 ) , 2 1 - 2 7 ,

1967.
A P P E N D I X I.
ON THE USE OF TIME
T i m e m a n a g e m e n t is important because it can influence your problem-solving

efficiency in a n u m b e r of w a y s :
1. T h e s i m p l e s t and m o s t o b v i o u s w a y is that t h r o u g h p o o r s c h e d u l i n g , y o u allow

i n s u f f i c i e n t t i m e t o w o r k a p r o b l e m t h r o u g h t o s o l u t i o n or, p e r h a p s , y o u n e v e r
get to it at all. No matter h o w bright y o u are, if y o u don't w o r k on a p r o b l e m , y o u
w o n ' t s o l v e it.
2. E v e n if y o u do s c h e d u l e e n o u g h time to solve the p r o b l e m , y o u may not sched-
u l e t h e b e s t t i m e t o s o l v e it. F o r e x a m p l e , y o u m a y s c h e d u l e w o r k o n a p r o b l e m
a t t h e v e r y l a s t m i n u t e b e f o r e t h e p r o b l e m i s d u e . T h e p r e s s u r e t h a t r e s u l t s from
such s c h e d u l i n g can cause inefficient problem solving by limiting the amount of
p l a n n i n g that y o u feel y o u can do at the b e g i n n i n g of the solution process or by
discouraging y o u from e x a m i n i n g alternative solution paths in sufficient depth.
C e r t a i n l y , s u c h s c h e d u l i n g w o u l d e l i m i n a t e t h e v e r y v a l u a b l e p r a c t i c e o f re-
v i e w i n g a n d c r i t i c i z i n g t h e s o l u t i o n p r o c e s s i m m e d i a t e l y after t h e s o l u t i o n i s
a c h i e v e d . A far b e t t e r t i m e t o s c h e d u l e p r o b l e m s o l u t i o n i s r i g h t after c l a s s . A t
t h i s t i m e , facts a n d i d e a s w h i c h m a y b e f o r g o t t e n i n a f e w h o u r s c a n b e u s e d a n d
consolidated.
3. If your time m a n a g e m e n t is generally poor, your ability to solve problems may
suffer b e c a u s e y o u h a v e f a i l e d t o a c q u i r e a n e s s e n t i a l p i e c e o f k n o w l e d g e o r
b e c a u s e y o u h a v e not attained sufficient mastery of a basic skill. Students some-
t i m e s try t o s a v e t i m e b y a t t e m p t i n g t o s o l v e p r o b l e m s after o n l y a q u i c k g l a n c e
at the relevant chapter or without working through the practice problems. While
this corner-cutting t e c h n i q u e s o m e t i m e s a l l o w s y o u to g e t b y , in the l o n g run it
is likely to reduce your problem-solving efficiency.
W h i l e there is v e r y little g l a m o u r in t i m e m a n a g e m e n t , the t e c h n i q u e s are

simple and they work. For some, they can produce considerable gains in problem-
solving efficiency. A c c o r d i n g to C r a w l e y (1936), time m a n a g e m e n t is the most
useful skill that students acquire in courses on study-skills.
T E C H N I Q U E S O F TIME M A N A G E M E N T
T i m e m a n a g e m e n t e m p l o y s t w o major t e c h n i q u e s :
Time planning: a l l o t t i n g s p e c i f i c b l o c k s o f t i m e d u r i n g t h e d a y o r w e e k t o
specific tasks a c c o r d i n g to their importance a n d the time t h e y require.
Efficiency: g e t t i n g a g r e a t d e a l a c c o m p l i s h e d i n t h e a v a i l a b l e t i m e .
239
L e t ' s start o u r d i s c u s s i o n w i t h t i m e p l a n n i n g . T h e first s e r i o u s s t e p i n t i m e

p l a n n i n g is to find out h o w y o u s p e n d your time n o w . Perhaps the simplest w a y to
d o this i s t o k e e p a t i m e c h a r t s u c h a s t h i s :
TIME SCHEDULE FOR WEEK

Date:
Hour Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday

On the Use of Time 241
Y o u s h o u l d r e c o r d y o u r a c t i v i t i e s i n t h e c h a r t for a t l e a s t o n e c o m p l e t e w e e k ,
s i n c e for m o s t p e o p l e t i m e u s a g e v a r i e s a g o o d d e a l f r o m d a y t o d a y . W e e k e n d s , for
e x a m p l e , are u s u a l l y s c h e d u l e d q u i t e d i f f e r e n t l y from w e e k d a y s . S i n c e t h e r e c o r d
i s e n t i r e l y for y o u r b e n e f i t , i t i s w o r t h m a k i n g i t a s c o m p l e t e a n d a c c u r a t e a s y o u c a n .
T a k e t h e d a t a s h e e t w i t h y o u w h e r e v e r y o u g o s o that y o u c a n m a k e t h e e n t r i e s a s
s o o n after t h e a c t i v i t y a s p o s s i b l e . B e u n s p a r i n g l y h o n e s t a b o u t s u c h q u e s t i o n s as,
" W a s I studying or really just reading m a g a z i n e s ? "
O n e w o u l d e x p e c t most c o l l e g e students to s p e n d 12 to 15 hours in class e a c h
w e e k and 25 to 30 hours in study.
O n c e y o u have an idea of h o w you use your time, you may be delighted and
i m p r e s s e d , o r y o u m a y d e c i d e that y o u w a n t t o d e s i g n a b e t t e r s c h e d u l e . Y o u m a y
f i n d , for e x a m p l e , that y o u s p e n d m o r e t i m e i n c a s u a l r e c r e a t i o n t h a n y o u t h o u g h t
a n d w a n t t o c o n v e r t s o m e o f t h o s e h o u r s t o s t u d y u s e . Y o u m a y find that y o u are
p u t t i n g u n d u e e m p h a s i s o n o n e t o p i c a t t h e e x p e n s e o f o t h e r s o r that s o m e t o p i c s
are s u f f e r i n g b e c a u s e t h e y are b e i n g left for t h e last m i n u t e . I f a n y o f t h e s e t h i n g s
i s t r u e , y o u w i l l l i k e l y profit b y m a k i n g a t i m e p l a n a n d s t i c k i n g t o it.
To m a k e a time plan, y o u should establish a fixed w e e k l y s c h e d u l e in w h i c h
s p e c i f i c t o p i c s are a s s i g n e d t o s p e c i f i c t i m e slots. T h e a m o u n t o f t i m e y o u a s s i g n t o
e a c h t o p i c s h o u l d d e p e n d o n its i m p o r t a n c e t o y o u a n d o n t h e d i f f i c u l t y y o u h a v e
w i t h it. D e c i d i n g o n t h e r e l a t i v e i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e t o p i c s i s v e r y i m p o r t a n t a n d
therefore worth considerable thought. M a k i n g these decisions sensibly may be the
most valuable aspect of time planning.
T r y t o p l a c e t h e t i m e slot f o r s t u d y i n g a t o p i c a s c l o s e a s p o s s i b l e after t h e
l e c t u r e o n that t o p i c . T r y t o s c h e d u l e t o p i c s that r e q u i r e a g r e a t d e a l o f p r o b l e m
s o l v i n g o r c o n c e n t r a t i o n a t t i m e s w h e n y o u are m o s t a l e r t . L e a v e r o u t i n e a c t i v i t i e s
a n d r e c r e a t i o n for t i m e s w h e n y o u are l i k e l y t o n e e d r e l a x a t i o n .
Your schedule should include a w e e k l y review and planning session to see
w h e r e y o u h a v e g o t t e n d u r i n g t h e p a s t w e e k a n d w h e r e y o u are g o i n g d u r i n g t h e
next.
Y o u r s c h e d u l i n g of recreation should be realistic rather than idealistic. Y o u
m a y f e e l t h a t i t i s n o b l e t o s p e n d n o t i m e a t all o n f o o l i s h t h i n g s l i k e T V w a t c h i n g ,
b u t i f m i s s i n g y o u r f a v o r i t e p r o g r a m s turns y o u into a s e l f - p i t y i n g b l o b , t h e sacrifice
p r o b a b l y i s n ' t w o r t h i t a c a d e m i c a l l y o r o t h e r w i s e . O n t h e o t h e r h a n d , i f y o u find that
y o u r e w a r d y o u r s e l f w i t h a n h o u r o f T V for e v e r y h o u r y o u s t u d y , y o u are c l e a r l y
b e i n g w i l d l y s e l f - i n d u l g e n t . B e r e a s o n a b l e ! G i v e y o u r s e l f e n o u g h r e c r e a t i o n t o stay
efficient but not too m u c h more.
O n c e y o u h a v e e s t a b l i s h e d y o u r t i m e p l a n , y o u s h o u l d try t o f o l l o w i t c l o s e l y .
O f c o u r s e , i t m a y n e e d a d j u s t m e n t s . Y o u m a y find that y o u h a v e t o o m u c h o f
s o m e t h i n g o r t o o l i t t l e o f s o m e t h i n g e l s e . I f a n e m e r g e n c y c o m e s u p , say i n t h e form
o f a n e x a m , y o u h a v e t o b o r r o w t i m e from o n e t o p i c t o w o r k o n a n o t h e r . T h e
borrowed time should always be paid back, however.
Y o u m a y find i t h e l p f u l t o c o n t i n u e y o u r t i m e d i a r y s o t h a t y o u c a n s e e t h e
extent to w h i c h your actual time usage approximates y o u r plan. K e e p i n g the diary
for a t l e a s t o n e w e e k o n c e y o u r p l a n i s i n o p e r a t i o n c e r t a i n l y s h o u l d b e i n f o r m a t i v e .
G i v e n a satisfactory s c h e d u l e o f w o r k a n d r e c r e a t i o n , t h e n e x t p r o b l e m i s t o
i n s u r e that y o u g e t t h e m a x i m u m b e n e f i t o u t o f t h e h o u r s y o u w o r k . E f f i c i e n c y
requires both organization and concentration.
ORGANIZING YOUR WORK

Most of us have had the experience of settling d o w n to work only to discover
that n e c e s s a r y p a p e r s are m i s s i n g o r that w e h a v e l o s t t h e a s s i g n m e n t . O r w e m a y
b e w o r k i n g a l o n g a t h i g h s p e e d o n a p a p e r a n d h a v e t o s t o p for 1 0 m i n u t e s t o s e a r c h
for a d i c t i o n a r y u n d e r h e a p s o f p a p e r s a n d r e c o r d j a c k e t s . T h e p u r p o s e o f o r g a n i z i n g
your work is to reduce the amount of time you spend doing things like searching
t h r o u g h v a r i o u s h e a p s for t h i n g s y o u n e e d r i g h t n o w . S o m e o f t h e f o l l o w i n g r u l e s
may help:
1 . K e e p a s h e l f (or f i x e d p l a c e ) for f r e q u e n t l y u s e d r e f e r e n c e b o o k s a n d m a k e a
h a b i t o f r e t u r n i n g t h e m t o t h e i r p l a c e s after u s e .
2 . K e e p a s e p a r a t e , c l e a r l y m a r k e d n o t e b o o k o r f o l d e r for e a c h t o p i c .
3. Date your papers, and n u m b e r the pages.
4. K e e p y o u r p e r s o n a l library in s o m e reasonable order, e.g., arranged by topic or
alphabetically by author.
5. If y o u can't c o m p l e t e a j o b in o n e session, d i v i d e it into subparts w h i c h can be
completed in one session.
6. W h e n y o u finish a w o r k session on a g i v e n topic, y o u should plan w h a t to do next
w h e n y o u return to that topic and l e a v e yourself a note as a reminder. It m a y save
y o u s o m e time in reorienting yourself to the topic.
CONCENTRATION
T h e other a s p e c t o f efficiency that w e w i l l c o n s i d e r i s concentration. T r y i n g t o

m a k e y o u r s e l f c o n c e n t r a t e i s a m u c h m o r e d i f f i c u l t task t o g e t h o l d o f t h a n a t t e m p t -
ing t o o r g a n i z e y o u r w o r k . S o m e authors s i m p l y t h r o w u p their hands and say, " T h e
only w a y to concentrate is to c o n c e n t r a t e . " T h e r e are s o m e items of a d v i c e in the
" H o w to S t u d y " literature, h o w e v e r , w h i c h y o u m a y find useful.
1 . O n c e y o u e s t a b l i s h y o u r w o r k s c h e d u l e , s t i c k t o it. O n e a u t h o r d r a w s a n a n a l o g y
with eating. If y o u regularly eat at certain times of the day, y o u will be hungry
at those times. If y o u regularly work at certain times of the day, y o u will be ready
for w o r k a t t h o s e t i m e s .
2. W h i l e it is not absolutely essential, a quiet work place does help. K e e p TV and
friends out of your study area. U s e a radio only if the m u s i c d r o w n s out sounds
t h a t are m o r e d i s t r a c t i n g .
3 . U s e y o u r w o r k s p a c e o n l y for w o r k . I f y o u h a v e a m o m e n t for r e l a x a t i o n , d o i t
somewhere else.
4. S c h e d u l e short rests a n d m a k e g o o d u s e of t h e m : stretch, w a l k around, do s o m e -
t h i n g different from w h a t y o u h a v e b e e n doing.
5 . D o n ' t w o r k m o r e t h a n t w o h o u r s a t a t i m e o n t h e s a m e t o p i c i f y o u c a n h e l p it.
6 . S c h e d u l e y o u r w o r k h o u r s for t h o s e t i m e s o f t h e d a y w h e n y o u are m o s t e f f i c i e n t .
I t m a y b e w o r t h t r y i n g d i f f e r e n t t i m e s t o d i s c o v e r if, e v e n t h o u g h y o u p a s s
y o u r s e l f off as a n i g h t o w l , y o u are really a latent m o r n i n g p e r s o n , a n d v i c e versa.
7. W h e n y o u h a v e w o r k e d t h r o u g h a p r o b l e m , take t i m e to r e v i e w w h a t it w a s that
g a v e y o u d i f f i c u l t y a n d h o w y o u o v e r c a m e it. R e f l e c t i o n j u s t after y o u h a v e
s o l v e d a p r o b l e m is a v e r y v a l u a b l e aid in r e m e m b e r i n g n e w l y d i s c o v e r e d solu-
tion t e c h n i q u e s , so that y o u don't have to discover t h e m a n e w e a c h time the
s a m e sort o f p r o b l e m c o m e s u p .
8. A v o i d daydreaming. If daydreaming b e c o m e s a problem in r e a d i n g — i f you
notice that your e y e s have m o v e d over the page b u t y o u haven't understood a
t h i n g — t r y s u m m a r i z i n g e a c h p a r a g r a p h t o y o u r s e l f a s y o u c o m e t o t h e e n d o f it.
If d a y d r e a m i n g is a p r o b l e m at other times, e.g., w h i l e w o r k i n g p h y s i c s prob-
l e m s , try u s i n g a k i t c h e n t i m e r w h i c h y o u k e e p r e s e t t i n g b e f o r e i t r i n g s — w h e n
i t d o e s ring, i t w i l l b r i n g y o u b a c k from y o u r d a y d r e a m .
9. If d a y d r e a m i n g b e c o m e s a s e v e r e p r o b l e m d u r i n g a study session, w o r k on a
m o r e i n t e r e s t i n g t o p i c , o r s t o p s t u d y i n g a l t o g e t h e r for a w h i l e .
REFERENCES
Crawley, S . L . , Studying Efficiently. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, Inc.,

1936.
A P P E N D I X II
PROBABILITIES
T h i s a p p e n d i x i s d e s i g n e d for t h e r e a d e r w h o f e e l s t h a t h i s k n o w l e d g e o f
e l e m e n t a r y p r o b a b i l i t y t h e o r y is shaky or absent. After s t u d y i n g this a p p e n d i x , the
r e a d e r s h o u l d b e a b l e t o d o t h e f o l l o w i n g four t h i n g s :
1. d e f i n e p r o b a b i l i t y ,
2 . state t h r e e e l e m e n t a r y p r o p e r t i e s o f p r o b a b i l i t i e s ,
3 . e s t i m a t e p r o b a b i l i t i e s for s o m e s i m p l e e v e n t s , a n d
4 . c o m p u t e p r o b a b i l i t i e s for s o m e c o m p l e x e v e n t s .
PROBABILITY DEFINED
M a n y , perhaps most, of the events in our e v e r y d a y e x p e r i e n c e h a v e outcomes

that w e can't p r e d i c t w i t h certainty. F o r e x a m p l e , w e can't b e certain that our
favorite football t e a m will w i n today's g a m e or that a r e c e n t l y p u r c h a s e d plant will
survive our care. We can think of plant raising as an activity w h i c h can have either
of two outcomes: T h e plant will live or it will die. If we have had poor success in
the past, w e m a y h a v e little c o n f i d e n c e that the n e w plant w i l l l i v e . I f w e h a v e b e e n
g e n e r a l l y successful i n the past, w e m a y b e m o d e r a t e l y o r e v e n strongly confident
o f s u c c e s s . I n a n y c a s e w e w i l l r e a l i z e t h a t w e c a n ' t p r e d i c t with certainty w h e t h e r
or not the n e w plant will live.
In s o m e cases, it is possible to d e s c r i b e the uncertainty of an e v e n t by specify-
i n g p r o b a b i l i t i e s for t h e v a r i o u s p o s s i b l e o u t c o m e s o f t h e e v e n t . T h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f
a n o u t c o m e i s d e f i n e d a s t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f t i m e s t h a t o u t c o m e w i l l o c c u r g i v e n that
w e o b s e r v e a n i n d e f i n i t e l y large n u m b e r o f e v e n t s . T h u s , i f the probability that our
t e a m w i l l w i n i s a c t u a l l y 0.80, t h e n i f w e o b s e r v e m a n y g a m e s , o u r t e a m w i l l w i n
about 80 percent of them.
W h e n w e k n o w t h e p r o b a b i l i t y , w e still d o n ' t k n o w w i t h c e r t a i n t y w h e t h e r o r
n o t o u r t e a m w i l l w i n its n e x t g a m e . T h e u s e f u l t h i n g t h a t w e d o k n o w i s that i f w e
b e t o n our team m a n y t i m e s , w e will w i n e i g h t bets out o f t e n . I n general, k n o w i n g
t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f a n o u t c o m e i s u s e f u l for p r e d i c t i n g t h e n u m b e r o f t i m e s that
outcome will occur w h e n the e v e n t is repeated m a n y times.
Probabilities are related to odds, but the t w o shouldn't be confused. T h e odds
o f a n o u t c o m e i s t h e ratio o f t h e n u m b e r o f t i m e s t h e o u t c o m e o c c u r s , N , t o t h e
n u m b e r of times it d o e s n ' t occur, N. T h a t is,
O d d s (outcome) = —
N
T h e p r o b a b i l i t y of an o u t c o m e is the ratio of t h e n u m b e r of t i m e s the o u t c o m e

o c c u r s , N , t o t h e total n u m b e r o f e v e n t s , T . S i n c e t h e total n u m b e r o f e v e n t s i s t h e
sum of N and N, then
t> i i -i. / , N N
Probability (outcome) = — = — — —
T N +N
U s u a l l y probabilities are stated as d e c i m a l fractions, w h e r e a s odds are stated as the
ratio o f w h o l e n u m b e r s . T h u s , t h e p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t o u r t e a m w i l l w i n i s 0.80, b u t t h e
o d d s t h a t i t w i l l w i n a r e e i g h t t o t w o , or, r e d u c e d t o l o w e s t t e r m s , f o u r t o o n e .
THREE PROPERTIES OF PROBABILITIES
1. A probability is a n u m b e r b e t w e e n zero and one. An outcome w h i c h can n e v e r

occur has a probability of zero, and an o u t c o m e w h i c h always occurs has a probabil-
i t y o f o n e . M o s t o u t c o m e s h a v e p r o b a b i l i t i e s t h a t fall b e t w e e n t h e s e t w o . A p r o b a -
bility can n e v e r be a negative number.
2 . T h e p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f a l l t h e o u t c o m e s o f a n e v e n t sum t o one. S u p p o s e t h a t a n
e v e n t has a n u m b e r o f p o s s i b l e o u t c o m e s — s a y five. S u p p o s e that w e h a v e ob-
s e r v e d the e v e n t a n indefinite n u m b e r o f times, T , s o that w e can calculate the
probabilities of the outcomes. If outcome 1 occurred N times, outcome 2, N times, t 2
and so on, then P = Nj/T, P 2 = N / T , etc. Since e v e r y e v e n t must have one of the
2
five outcomes, N j + N j + N g + ^ + N s - T . N o w , the sum of the probabilities of the

outcomes is given by:
T, Tl T~> T, T, N t N 2 N 3 N 4 N 5
x
*• ° ^ " rj-i rj-i rji rj-i rji
_N t + N 2 + N 3 + N 4 + N 5
3. The law of large numbers. T a b l e 1 s h o w s t h e r e s u l t s of t o s s i n g a c o i n r e p e a t e d l y .

A s t h e n u m b e r o f t o s s e s i n c r e a s e s , t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f h e a d s o b t a i n e d a p p r o a c h e s 0.5.
T h u s , i n a m i l l i o n t o s s e s o f a fair c o i n , w e s h o u l d o b t a i n a p r o p o r t i o n o f h e a d s v e r y
c l o s e t o 0.5. I f t h e c o i n h a d b e e n b i a s e d , t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f h e a d s w o u l d h a v e s e t t l e d
d o w n to some other value.
T a b l e 2 shows the result of tossing a biased coin. F r o m these results, we can
e s t i m a t e t h a t for t h i s c o i n , t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f a h e a d i s a b o u t 0 . 5 3 . T h e v a l u e , 0 . 5 3 ,
is o n l y an estimate of t h e probability, since we can n e v e r toss the c o i n t h e infinite
n u m b e r of times r e q u i r e d to find the " t r u e " probability. H o w e v e r , the estimate will
approach the true probability more and more closely as we increase the number of
tosses. T h e fact that the e s t i m a t e w i l l a p p r o a c h t h e true p r o b a b i l i t y in this c a s e is
a n i n s t a n c e o f t h e law o f large numbers: T h e p r o p o r t i o n o f t i m e s t h a t a n e v e n t h a s
Table 1
Number of
tosses 10 100 300 500 1,000 10,000
Number of
heads 4 54 138 235 484 4,983
Proportion
of heads 0.40 0.54 0.46 0.47 0.48 0.498
Probabilities 245
Table 2
Number of
tosses 10 100 300 500 1,000 10,000
Number of
heads 5 57 147 256 519 5,309
Proportion
of heads 0.50 0.57 0.49 0.51 0.52 0.531
a p a r t i c u l a r o u t c o m e a p p r o a c h e s t h e t r u e p r o b a b i l i t y for t h a t o u t c o m e a s t h e
number of events increases.
ESTIMATING PROBABILITIES FOR SIMPLE O U T C O M E S
P r o b a b i l i t y e s t i m a t e s c o m e from t w o s o u r c e s : e x p e r i e n c e a n d rational m o d e l s .
T h e discussion of the b i a s e d coin a b o v e illustrates the use of e x p e r i e n c e to m a k e
probability estimates. An e v e n t is observed a n u m b e r of times; the proportion of
times a particular o u t c o m e occurs is c a l c u l a t e d ; and that proportion is u s e d as the
estimate of the probability of the o u t c o m e . T h e more important it is that we have
an accurate estimate, the larger the n u m b e r of events we observe. If we want to be
sure that a d r u g has a l o w probability of c a u s i n g harmful side effects, we give it
extensive testing (observe many events) before releasing it to the public.
Rational m o d e l s are the other s o u r c e of p r o b a b i l i t y e s t i m a t e s . In a rational
m o d e l , w e try t o i d e n t i f y s e t s o f e q u a l l y p r o b a b l e o u t c o m e s for a n e v e n t . S u p p o s e
t h a t w e c o m e f r o m a d i s t a n t c o u n t r y w h e r e c o i n f l i p p i n g i s u n h e a r d of. W h e n w e are
a p p r o a c h e d for t h e first t i m e t o b e t o n t h e f l i p o f a c o i n , w e w i l l b e a t a d i s t i n c t
d i s a d v a n t a g e i f w e c a n ' t e s t i m a t e t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f o b t a i n i n g a h e a d o r a tail. W h a t
can we do with zero experience in coin flipping? By examining the coin, we can see
that t h e t w o s i d e s a r e q u i t e s y m m e t r i c a l . T h e r e i s n o r e a s o n t o b e l i e v e i t w i l l l a n d
h e a d s m o r e o f t e n t h a n i t l a n d s t a i l s . W e r e a s o n , t h e r e f o r e , t h a t t h e h e a d s a n d tails
are e q u a l l y l i k e l y a l t e r n a t i v e s . S i n c e t h e y a r e t h e o n l y a l t e r n a t i v e s ,
P ( h e a d s ) + P (tails) = 1
and
P ( h e a d s ) = P (tails) = 0.5
In the same way, if we w e r e unfamiliar with dice, we could quickly estimate the
p r o b a b i l i t y o f r o l l i n g a t h r e e o r a f i v e b y n o t i c i n g t h a t a d i e i s a c u b e w i t h six e q u a l
faces. We estimate that e a c h side is e q u a l l y l i k e l y to turn up on a roll and c o n c l u d e
t h a t t h e p r o b a b i l i t y for e a c h s i d e i s o n e - s i x t h . I f t h e d i e h a d b e e n i r r e g u l a r , w i t h
faces o f various sizes a n d s h a p e s , w e c o u l d not h a v e m a d e this prediction.
I n g e n e r a l , r a t i o n a l m o d e l s for e s t i m a t i n g p r o b a b i l i t i e s s u c h a s t h e s e m a k e
extensive use of arguments about symmetry or e q u i v a l e n c e of alternatives.
COMPUTING PROBABILITIES FOR C O M P L E X O U T C O M E S
A s i m p l e o u t c o m e i s o n e for w h i c h w e c a n e s t i m a t e t h e p r o b a b i l i t i e s e i t h e r
from e x p e r i e n c e o r f r o m a r a t i o n a l m o d e l . I f A a n d B a r e t w o s i m p l e o u t c o m e s , w e
m a y d e f i n e a c o m p l e x e v e n t , J , a s t h e o c c u r r e n c e o f e i t h e r A o r B . T h a t is,
J = A or B
E v e n t s c o m b i n e d in this w a y are said to be O R e d together. G e t t i n g a n u m b e r

greater than three in rolling a die is a c o m p l e x o u t c o m e w h i c h consists of three
s i m p l e o u t c o m e s : r o l l i n g a f o u r or a f i v e or a six. T h e s e s i m p l e o u t c o m e s are O R e d
together to form the c o m p l e x outcome. We can define a different c o m p l e x event, K,

as t h e o c c u r r e n c e of b o t h A and B.
K = A and B
E v e n t s c o m b i n e d i n t h i s w a y are s a i d t o b e A N D e d t o g e t h e r . I n r o l l i n g a p a i r
of dice, getting a 12 is a c o m p l e x e v e n t w h i c h consists of t w o simple events: rolling
a six o n t h e first d i e and r o l l i n g a six o n t h e s e c o n d d i e . T h e s e s i m p l e o u t c o m e s are
A N D e d together to form the c o m p l e x outcome.
M a n y c o m p l e x o u t c o m e s i n v o l v e both m e t h o d s o f c o m b i n i n g simpler out-
c o m e s . R o l l i n g a 1 0 o n a p a i r o f d i c e c o n s i s t s o f r o l l i n g a f o u r o n t h e first d i e and
a six on t h e s e c o n d , or a f i v e on t h e first d i e and a f i v e on t h e s e c o n d , or a six on
t h e first d i e and a f o u r o n t h e s e c o n d . H e r e t h e s i m p l e o u t c o m e s a r e A N D e d
t o g e t h e r to form c o m p l e x o u t c o m e s w h i c h are, in turn, O R e d t o g e t h e r to form m o r e
c o m p l e x outcomes. In this section, we will show h o w to c o m p u t e the probabilities
o f c o m p l e x e v e n t s from the probabilities o f the c o m p o n e n t s i m p l e r e v e n t s . T o d o
this a d e q u a t e l y , we w i l l n e e d to c o n s i d e r a fairly c o m p l e x e x a m p l e s u c h as the
following.
S u p p o s e that y o u h a v e a b o x c o n t a i n i n g 100 identical balls l a b e l e d from 1 to
100. I m a g i n e that y o u shake the b o x t h o r o u g h l y and t h e n d r a w out one ball w i t h o u t
l o o k i n g . I t i s e a s y t o c o n s t r u c t a r a t i o n a l m o d e l for t h i s e v e n t , w h i c h i n d i c a t e s t h a t
t h e 1 0 0 a l t e r n a t i v e o u t c o m e s are e q u a l l y p r o b a b l e a n d t h a t e a c h h a s a p r o b a b i l i t y
o f 1/100.
S u p p o s e that balls 1 t h r o u g h 30 are red, balls 31 t h r o u g h 60 are w h i t e , and balls
6 1 t h r o u g h 1 0 0 are b l u e . F u r t h e r , s u p p o s e t h a t b a l l s 1 t h r o u g h 5 0 are m a d e o f w o o d
a n d t h a t b a l l s 5 1 t h r o u g h 1 0 0 are m a d e o f p l a s t i c ( s e e F i g u r e 1 ) .
T o c o m p u t e p r o b a b i l i t i e s for o u t c o m e s w h i c h a r e O R e d t o g e t h e r :
1 . I d e n t i f y c l e a r l y t h e s e t o f o u t c o m e a n d t h e r e l a t i o n s for w h i c h y o u w a n t t o
c o m p u t e a probability. F o r e x a m p l e , if a s k e d to find the p r o b a b i l i t y of rolling a 3 or
a 5 y o u can w r i t e " F i n d P r o b (3 or 5 ) . "
2 . D e t e r m i n e w h e t h e r o r n o t t h e o u t c o m e s a r e mutually exclusive. T w o o u t c o m e s
are m u t u a l l y e x c l u s i v e if t h e y can't occur together. It is i m p o s s i b l e to get both a
h e a d a n d a tail w i t h a s i n g l e toss o f a c o i n . T h e r e f o r e , " h e a d " a n d " t a i l " a r e m u t u a l l y
e x c l u s i v e o u t c o m e s of this e v e n t . In the s a m e w a y , g e t t i n g a 3 a n d a 5 on t h e roll
o f a s i n g l e d i e a r e m u t u a l l y e x c l u s i v e o u t c o m e s . I n p r o b a b i l i t y t e r m s , i f A a n d B are
m u t u a l l y e x c l u s i v e o u t c o m e s , t h e n P r o b ( A and B ) = 0 ; t h a t i s , t h e p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t
the two occur together is zero.
3A. If the o u t c o m e s are m u t u a l l y e x c l u s i v e , then the probability of the O R e d
o u t c o m e s is the s u m of t h e probabilities of the separate o u t c o m e s . T h a t is,
P r o b (A or B or . . . K) = P r o b (A) + P r o b (B) + . . . + P r o b (K).

Probabilities 247
Example:
W h a t is t h e p r o b a b i l i t y of r o l l i n g a t h r e e or a f i v e on a s i n g l e r o l l of a d i e ?
Solution
S t e p 1. F i n d P r o b (3 or 5).
S t e p 2 . T h e s e o u t c o m e s are m u t u a l l y e x c l u s i v e a s w e n o t e d a b o v e .
S t e p 3. P r o b (3 or 5) = P r o b (3) + P r o b (5)
= 1/6 + 1/6
= 1/3
Example:
W h a t is the probability of d r a w i n g a w h i t e ball in the situation d e s c r i b e d
above?
Solution
S t e p 1. F i n d P r o b (1 or 2 or 3 . . . 30).
S t e p 2 . T h e s e o u t c o m e s are m u t u a l l y e x c l u s i v e s i n c e w e h a v e a s s u m e d
that o n l y o n e ball is to be d r a w n at a time.
S t e p 3. P r o b (1 or 2 or 3 or .. . 30)
= P r o b (1) + P r o b (2) + P r o b (3) . . . + P r o b (30)
= 1/100 + 1/100 + 1/100 . . . + 1/100
= 30/100
= 0.30
3B. I f t w o o u t c o m e s a r e not m u t u a l l y e x c l u s i v e , t h e n t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f t h e O R e d
o u t c o m e s i s t h e s u m o f t h e p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f t h e s e p a r a t e o u t c o m e s minus t h e p r o b a -
bility that the t w o o c c u r together. T h a t is,
P r o b (A or B) = P r o b (A) + P r o b (B) - P r o b (A and B)
Example:
F i n d the probability of d r a w i n g a w h i t e ball or a w o o d e n ball.
Solution
Step 1. F i n d Prob (white or w o o d e n ) .
S t e p 2 . T h e s e o u t c o m e s a r e not m u t u a l l y e x c l u s i v e s i n c e w e c a n d r a w a
ball w h i c h is both white and wooden.
Step 3. Prob (white or wooden)
= P r o b ( w h i t e ) + P r o b ( w o o d e n ) — P r o b ( w h i t e and w o o d e n )
= 0.30 + 0.50 - P r o b ( 3 1 or 32 or . . . 50)
= 0.80 - 0.20
= 0.60
T h e r e a s o n t h a t w e m u s t s u b t r a c t P r o b ( A and B ) for o u t c o m e s t h a t are n o t
mutually e x c l u s i v e is that o t h e r w i s e s o m e o u t c o m e s w o u l d be c o u n t e d t w i c e . In the
e x a m p l e a b o v e , to find the probability that a ball is w o o d e n , we a d d up probabilities
for o u t c o m e s 1 t h r o u g h 5 0 . T o f i n d t h e p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t a b a l l i s w h i t e , w e a d d u p
t h e p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f o u t c o m e s 3 1 t h r o u g h 60. N o w , t o find the p r o b a b i l i t y o f d r a w i n g
a ball w h i c h is w h i t e or w o o d e n , what we really w a n t to do is to add the prob-
abilities of o u t c o m e s 1 through 60. By a d d i n g the probability of d r a w i n g a w h i t e ball
and d r a w i n g a w o o d e n ball, we are in effect c o u n t i n g o u t c o m e s 31 t h r o u g h 50 t w i c e .
T h e s e a r e j u s t t h e o u t c o m e s w h i c h are b o t h w h i t e and w o o d e n . T h i s e r r o r i s
c o r r e c t e d by s u b t r a c t i n g P r o b ( w h i t e and w o o d e n ) = P r o b ( 3 1 ) + P r o b (32) + . . . +
P r o b (50).
F o r s o m e , the d i a g r a m s in F i g u r e 2 h e l p to clarify the difference b e t w e e n
o u t c o m e s w h i c h are m u t u a l l y e x c l u s i v e a n d t h o s e w h i c h are n o t .
T o c o m p u t e p r o b a b i l i t i e s for o u t c o m e s w h i c h are A N D e d t o g e t h e r :
1 . I d e n t i f y c l e a r l y t h e s e t o f o u t c o m e s a n d t h e i r r e l a t i o n s for w h i c h y o u w a n t t o
c o m p u t e a p r o b a b i l i t y , e . g . , P r o b (A and B and C ) .
Probabilities 249
2 . D e t e r m i n e w h e t h e r o r n o t t h e o u t c o m e s are independent o f e a c h o t h e r . A n
o u t c o m e i s i n d e p e n d e n t o f a n o t h e r o u t c o m e i f t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f t h e first o u t c o m e
is not influenced by the occurrence or non-occurrence of the second. For example,
the probability that there w i l l b e a n e c l i p s e o f the m o o n t o m o r r o w d o e s not d e p e n d
o n w h e t h e r o r n o t I a m k i n d t o m y cat. T h e t w o o u t c o m e s a r e u n r e l a t e d a n d
i n d e p e n d e n t . H o w e v e r , t h e p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t I w e a r a r a i n c o a t t o m o r r o w is depen-
dent o n t h e w e a t h e r . I f t h e w e a t h e r i s r a i n y o r o v e r c a s t , t h e p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t I w i l l
w e a r a raincoat is m u c h h i g h e r than if it is sunny.
3 A . I f t h e o u t c o m e s are i n d e p e n d e n t , t h e n t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f t h e A N D e d o u t c o m e s
is the product of the probabilities of the separate o u t c o m e s . T h a t is,
P r o b (A and B and . . . K) = P r o b (A) x P r o b (B) x . . . x P r o b (K)
Solution
S t e p 1 . F i n d P r o b ( h e a d and h e a d and h e a d ) .
S t e p 2 . S u c c e s s i v e c o i n flips a r e i n d e p e n d e n t o f e a c h o t h e r . C o i n s h a v e n o
m e m o r y for p r e v i o u s e v e n t s .
S t e p 3. P r o b ( h e a d and h e a d and h e a d )
= Prob (head) x Prob (head) x Prob (head)
= 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2
= 1/8
3B. I f t h e o u t c o m e s a r e not i n d e p e n d e n t t h e n w e h a v e t o t a k e t h e d e p e n d e n c i e s
into account. We can e x p r e s s the d e p e n d e n c e of o u t c o m e B on o u t c o m e A as
follows:
Prob ( B | A ) * P r o b , ( B | 5 )
T h i s should be read as the probability of B g i v e n that A has occurred is not e q u a l

t o t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f B g i v e n t h a t A h a s n o t o c c u r r e d ( K m a y b e r e a d a s not A ) . P r o b
(B | A) is c a l l e d t h e conditional p r o b a b i l i t y of B g i v e n A.
S u p p o s e w e k n o w that a w o o d e n ball has b e e n c h o s e n b u t w e don't k n o w w h a t
c o l o r i t i s . T h e p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t i t i s w h i t e i s t h e c o n d i t i o n a l p r o b a b i l i t y o f white
g i v e n wooden; t h a t is, P r o b ( w h i t e | w o o d e n ) . W h e n w e l e a r n t h a t a w o o d e n b a l l h a s
b e e n c h o s e n we k n o w that o n e of the o u t c o m e s of 1 through 50 has occurred b u t we
d o n ' t k n o w w h i c h o n e . O f t h e s e 5 0 o u t c o m e s , 2 0 are w h i t e . W e c a n c o n c l u d e t h e n
t h a t P r o b ( w h i t e | w o o d e n ) = 20/50 = 0.40.
I f t w o o u t c o m e s A a n d B are n o t i n d e p e n d e n t , t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f t h e A N D e d
o u t c o m e is the probability of A times the conditional probability of B g i v e n A, that
i s , P r o b (A and B) = P r o b (A) x P r o b (B | A ) .
Example:
W h a t is the p r o b a b i l i t y of d r a w i n g a ball that is b o t h w o o d e n a n d w h i t e ?
Solution
S t e p 1 . F i n d P r o b ( w o o d e n and w h i t e ) .
S t e p 2. T h e s e o u t c o m e s are not i n d e p e n d e n t since P r o b ( w o o d e n | white)
T- Prob ( w o o d e n | not white)
4
S t e p 3 . P r o b ( w o o d e n and w h i t e )
= Prob (wooden) x Prob (white | wooden)
= 0.50 x 0.40 = 0.20
N o t i c e that the order i n w h i c h w e c o n s i d e r the o u t c o m e d o e s n ' t matter. T h u s ,
Prob (white and wooden)
= Prob (white) x Prob (wooden | white)
= 0.30 x 2/3
= 0.20
M a n y problems involve both A N D i n g and O R i n g of Outcomes. S u c h problems can
be solved by successive applications of the rules we have b e e n using.
Example:
W h a t is the probability of getting a 10 w h e n rolling a pair of d i c e ?
Solution
S t e p 1. F i n d P r o b (10) = P r o b [(4 and 6) or (5 and 5) or (6 and 4 ) ] .
S t e p 2 . T h e A N D e d o u t c o m e s are i n d e p e n d e n t a n d t h e O R e d outcomes
are m u t u a l l y e x c l u s i v e .
S t e p 3 . P r o b (10)
= [ P r o b (4 and 6) or (5 and 5) or (6 and 4)]
= P r o b [(4 and 6) + P r o b (5 and 5) + P r o b (6 and 4)]
= P r o b (4) x P r o b (6) + P r o b (5) x P r o b (5) + P r o b (6) x P r o b (4)
= 1/6 x 1/6 + 1/6 x 1/6 + 1/6 x 1/6
= 1/36 + 1/36 + 1/36
= 3/36
= 1/12

The Complete Problem Solver

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Hayes, John R„ 1940-

1. Problem solving. 2. Thought and thinking.

Doug Bauman Kevin Brown

J e a n n e H a l p i n has t a u g h t the c o u r s e v e r y s u c c e s s f u l l y o n h e r o w n . B y d o i n g so,

I. PROBLEM SOLVING THEORY AND PRACTICE

II. M E M O R Y AND KNOWLEDGE ACQUISITION

Seven. G e t t i n g the Facts Straight: M a k i n g D e c i s i o n s in A C o m p l e x

IV. C R E A T I V I T Y AND INVENTION

T h i s b o o k has t w o purposes. It is d e s i g n e d to p r o v i d e y o u with skills that will

g i v e h i m $10,000 i f h e p u t h i s e l b o w i n h i s e a r . " E a s y , " y o u r f r i e n d s a y s ; " I ' l l j u s t

A typical reaction to this p r o b l e m is to say, " W h a t ? " or b e a t a hasty retreat

Problem 2. The Loser

T h i s s t o r y p o s e s a p r o b l e m for m o s t o f u s w h e n w e first s e e it. I t w o u l d b e n o

In trying to bridge the gap, p e o p l e propose a variety of solutions:

T h e s e solutions vary in quality. T h e solution about the w o m a n b e c o m i n g a nun

Problem 3. The Combination Lock

S u p p o s e that y o u h a v e the p r o b l e m of o p e n i n g the 10-dial c o m b i n a t i o n lock

Problem 4. The Rational Investor

Problem 5. Cats A m o n g Pigeons

(from Phillips, 1961)

Problem 6. Who's Got the E n t h a l p y ?

fif/lbm. What is its enthalpy?

(from Smith and Van Ness, 1959)

P r o b l e m #6 is not a v e r y difficult p r o b l e m if y o u k n o w s o m e t h i n g about

T h e book is d i v i d e d into four sections:

Section I . Problem Solving Theory and Practice (representing problems and

Phillips, H. My Best Puzzles in Logic and Reasoning. N e w York: Dover, 1961.

S m i t h , J . M . , a n d V a n N e s s , H . C . Introduction to Chemical Engineering Thermo-

Usually w h e n we solve a problem, we put most of our attention on the problem

1 . Finding the Problem: r e c o g n i z i n g t h a t t h e r e i s a p r o b l e m t o b e s o l v e d .

This s e q u e n c e of actions is illustrated in the following problem.

Consolidating Gains I r e v i s e m y r u l e s for l e n d i n g m o n e y t o S m i t h

In easy problems, we m a y go through these actions in order and without any

Suppose we w e r e to spy on people as they w e r e trying to understand a n e w

may h a v e no h a n d s , or the circles m a y g i v e no indication that the g l o b e s are

T h e Relation of Internal and External Representations

1 . The G o a l — w h e r e w e w a n t the g l o b e s t o b e w h e n w e are d o n e .

Experimenter (reading problem): "I w e n t to tea."

Using K n o w l e d g e to Interpret Problems

W h e n we form a p r o b l e m representation, we not o n l y a d d information and

V e r y often, w h e n we e n c o u n t e r a p r o b l e m , we r e c o g n i z e that we h a v e seen a

one corner of the field, A h m e d w a l k e d 20 cubits south and G e o r g e w a l k e d 60 cubits

T h e r e is a variety of " o p t i m i s t " story w h i c h (inadvertently) illustrates t h e im-

N o w , the p e c u l i a r t h i n g a b o u t the optimists' t h i n k i n g is not that t h e y are failing

INDIVIDUAL DIFFERENCES IN PROBLEM REPRESENTATION

E v e n w h e n t w o p e o p l e represent the same problem, they may w e l l not repre-

Figure 2. A Spare Representation

Figure 3 . A n O r n a t e Representation o f t h e S a m e Problem

imagery, another in s e n t e n c e s , and a third in auditory irnages. If t w o p e o p l e repre-

away, and Mr. L l o y d finished packing in 4 more minutes. H o w many minutes w o u l d

O n e v e g e t a b l e oil contains 6% saturated fats and a second contains 2 6 % satu-

T h e y w i l l u s e a " w o r k p r o b l e m " s c h e m a for t h e first a n d a " m i x t u r e p r o b l e m "

Numbers D a y s of the W e e k Months

0 = black M o n d a y = dark green January = greenish w h i t e

S o m e p e o p l e will find this p r o b l e m e a s y e n o u g h t o s o l v e i n their h e a d s . O t h e r s

English Physics Psychology Philosophy

After second step:

English Physics Psychology Philosophy

After third step:

English Physics Psychology Philosophy

Figure 6. Steps for Solving t h e D i c k e n s , Einstein, Freud, and Kant Problem

X's, as s h o w n in the m i d d l e matrix of F i g u r e 6. N o w that l e a v e s o n l y F r e u d w h o

A car radiator contains exactly one liter of a 9 0 % alcohol-water mixture. What

Figure 7. Representation of t h e Radiator Problem (After Paige and Simon)

ALCOHOL BEFORE = ALCOHOL AFTER

WATER AFTER = WATER BEFORE + WATER ADDED

TOTAL VOLUME BEFORE = ALCOHOL BEFORE + WATER BEFORE

I f a n y o f t h e s e r e l a t i o n s h a d n ' t o c c u r r e d t o y o u after r e a d i n g t h e p r o b l e m text, t h e

D i d you notice the contradictory nature of the p r o b l e m ? Paige and Simon

CHANGE A N D GROWTH I N REPRESENTATIONS

An important fact a b o u t a representation is that it can c h a n g e or d e v e l o p as we