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Assignment 3.
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Course
outline Week 3 : Assignment 3
Your last recorded submission was on 2022-02-08, 17:59 IST Due date: 2022-02-16, 23:59 IST.
How does an
NPTEL online 1) Which one of the following is NOT a measure of forecast error? 1 point
course work?

Mean absolute deviation (MAD)

Week 0
Mean squared error (MSE)

Mean absolute error (MAPE)
Week 1
Mean sum product error (MSPE)

2) The demand and forecast of an item for five months are given in the table. 1 point
Week2

Week 3

Time Series
Forecasting-

Working
Example Of
Exponential
Smoothing I
(unit?
unit=32&lesson=33) The Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) in the forecast is _______%. (Round off to two decimal
places)
Time Series
Forecasting-

Working
Example Of

8.07%
Exponential
7.04%
Smoothing II

5.03%
(unit?
unit=32&lesson=34)

9.03%

Time Series 3) For the forecast data shown below, the mean square error is: 1 point
Forecasting-
Working
Example Of
Exponential
Smoothing III

(unit?
unit=32&lesson=35)

Forecasting
Errors (unit?
unit=32&lesson=36)

 Causal Or
75
Assessment submitted.
Explanatory
X
55
Methods (unit?
unit=32&lesson=37)
73

63
Quiz: Week 3 :
Assignment 3 4) Consider the following table:
1 point
(assessment?
name=113)

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What is the value of tracking signal at the end of 6th period?

+ 2.5

- 2.5

+ 7.5

-7.5

5) If value of smoothing constant (alpha) is taken as 0, what is the meaning of it?  1 point

No fluctuations of current period are considered. 

Complete fluctuations of current period are considered. 

Some fluctuations of current period are considered. 

None of the above

6) Consider a case of forecasting where linear trend is available, what should be general 1 point
values of smoothing constant for smoothening the fluctuations of trend? 

0.5 to 0.6

0.8 to 0.9

0.1 to 0.2

0.75 to 0.80

7) Please refer following table:

Using exponential smoothing with a weight of α= 0.20, what was forecast for 2011? 

495

410

406

518
 8) Consider the following table: 
1 point
Assessment submitted.
X

What is the forecast for the month of March using exponential smoothing with a weight of α= 0.20?

27.88

25.43

32

30

9) In basic smoothing problem, value of alpha is taken as 1. What does it signify? 1 point

All fluctuations of the last period are included in the forecast.

New base is the new demand and the previous base is totally ignored.

Base and Demand of previous period are same.

None of the above.

10) Given the data below:

Fit this data on a straight line represented by simple linear regression model y = a + bx.  What is the
value of “a” here? 

143.5

150.4

130.5

120

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