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Linear Regression: Rustom D. Sutaria - Avia Intelligence 2016, Dubai

Linear regression models the relationship between two variables by fitting a linear equation to observed data, where one variable is considered the cause (independent variable) and the other the effect (dependent variable). A reliability engineer can use linear regression to relate individual component failures to their impact on higher-level systems or assemblies. For linear regression to be useful, there needs to be a demonstrable relationship between the component and system/aircraft, which can be seen in a scatterplot. The regression line that best fits the data takes the form of an equation that finds the predicted dependent variable value based on the independent variable.

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Umer Aziz
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56 views

Linear Regression: Rustom D. Sutaria - Avia Intelligence 2016, Dubai

Linear regression models the relationship between two variables by fitting a linear equation to observed data, where one variable is considered the cause (independent variable) and the other the effect (dependent variable). A reliability engineer can use linear regression to relate individual component failures to their impact on higher-level systems or assemblies. For linear regression to be useful, there needs to be a demonstrable relationship between the component and system/aircraft, which can be seen in a scatterplot. The regression line that best fits the data takes the form of an equation that finds the predicted dependent variable value based on the independent variable.

Uploaded by

Umer Aziz
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Linear Regression

Rustom D. Sutaria – Avia Intelligence 2016, Dubai

Introduction
As has been previously discussed in the paper on ‘Monte Carlo Simulation’, Risk analysis is an
increasing part of every decision we make where aircraft maintenance planning & reliability are
concerned. Further more risk tends to relate to cause & effect, not least the uncertainties associated
with aircraft operations and maintenance.

In Linear regression, the cause and effect relationship is studied. the Independent variable is the
cause (Ramp collision, lightning strike, failure on installation), and the dependent variable is the
effect (damage to an aircraft or component, grounding, etc). Linear regression will help the reliability
engineer to identify the dependent variables, thus contribute to the overall effectiveness of aircraft
maintenance.

The reader should note, that this paper only deals with simple linear regression.

What is Linear Regression?


Linear regression attempts to model the relationship between two variables by fitting a linear
equation to observed data. One variable is considered to be an explanatory variable (independent
variable or cause), and the other is considered to be a dependent variable (Effect).

For example, a reliability engineer might want to relate the individual component failures to their
associated systems or ‘next highest assemblies’ to assess operational impact or effect using a linear
regression model.

Prerequisites for Regression

Relationship
Before embarking on such a study, the reliability engineer should first determine whether or not
there is a relationship between the particular component or system, and the next highest assembly
or even the aircraft as a whole.

It is worth bearing in mind, that any given component or system may not necessarily imply the
causes of inoperability with regard to the next highest assembly, associated system or the aircraft,
but that there is some significant association between the individual component & the system or
aircraft.

A scatterplot can be a helpful tool in determining the strength of the relationship between the two.

If there appears to be no association between the proposed component and the system (i.e., the
scatterplot does not indicate any increasing or decreasing failure trends), then fitting a linear
regression model to the data probably will not provide any useful data for interpretation.
Standard Deviation
For each value of X, the probability distribution of Y has the same standard deviation σ. When this
condition is satisfied, the variability of the residuals will be relatively constant across all values of X,
which is easily checked in a residual plot.

For any given value of X,

- The Y values are independent, as indicated by a random pattern on the residual plot.
- The Y values are roughly normally distributed (i.e., symmetric and unimodal).

Note:
A little skewness is ok if the sample size is large. A histogram or a dotplot will show the shape of
the distribution.

The Least Squares Regression Line


Linear regression finds the straight line, called the least squares regression line or LSRL, that best
represents observations in a bivariate data set. Suppose Y is a dependent variable, and X is an
independent variable. The population regression line is: A linear regression line has an equation of
the form:

Y = Β0 + Β1X

Where:

Β0 is a constant,

Β1 is the regression coefficient,

X is the value of the independent variable or cause, and

Y is the value of the dependent variable or effect.

However, we all know that aviation is an independently variable business however, knowledge and
experience in the field, tends to identify known outcomes or effects. Given these circumstances, the
reliability engineer most likely will apply the following population regression line which has an
equation of the form:

ŷ = b0 + b1x

where:
b0 is a constant,
b1 is the regression coefficient,
x is the value of the independent variable, and
ŷ is the predicted value of the dependent variable.
How to Define a Regression Line
Normally, you will use a computational tool - a software package (e.g., Excel) or a graphing calculator
- to find b0 and b1. You enter the X and Y values into your program or calculator, and the tool solves
for each parameter.

In the unlikely event that you find yourself on a desert island without a computer or a graphing
calculator, you can solve for b0 and b1 "by hand". Here are the equations.

b1 = Σ [ (xi - xbar)(yi - ybar) ] / Σ [ (xi - xbar)2]


b1 = r * (sy / sx)
b0 = ybar - b1 * xbar

where

b0 is the constant in the regression equation,


b1 is the regression coefficient,
r is the correlation between x and y,
xi is the X value of observation i,
yi is the Y value of observation i,
x is the mean of X,0
y is the mean of Y,
sx is the standard deviation of X, and
sy is the standard deviation of Y

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