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MATHEMATICS
Quarter 4 – Module 8
Probability of an Event
Experimental and Theoretical
Probability and Theoretical
Probability

NegOr_Q4_Mathematics8_Module8_v2
Mathematics – Grade 8
Alternative Delivery Mode
Quarter 4 – Module 8: Probability of an Event: Experimental and Theoretical
Second Edition, 2021

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NegOr_Q4_Mathematics8_Module8_v2
Introductory Message

This Self-Learning Module (SLM) is prepared so that you, our dear learners,
can continue your studies and learn while at home. Activities, questions, directions,
exercises, and discussions are carefully stated for you to understand each lesson.

Each SLM is composed of different parts. Each part shall guide you step-by-
step as you discover and understand the lesson prepared for you.
Pre-tests are provided to measure your prior knowledge on lessons in each
SLM. This will tell you if you need to proceed on completing this module or if you
need to ask your facilitator or your teacher’s assistance for better understanding of
the lesson. At the end of each module, you need to answer the post-test to self-
check your learning. Answer keys are provided for each activity and test. We trust
that you will be honest in using these.

In addition to the material in the main text, Notes to the Teacher are also
provided to our facilitators and parents for strategies and reminders on how they can
best help you on your home-based learning.

Please use this module with care. Do not put unnecessary marks on any part
of this SLM. Use a separate sheet of paper in answering the exercises and tests.
And read the instructions carefully before performing each task.

If you have any questions in using this SLM or any difficulty in answering the
tasks in this module, do not hesitate to consult your teacher or facilitator.
Thank you.

i NegOr_Q4_Mathematics8_Module8_v2
 What I Need to Know

This module was designed to provide you with fun and meaningful opportunities for
guided and independent learning at your own pace and time. You will be enabled to process
the contents of the learning resource while being an active learner.

The module is intended for you to illustrate an experimental probability and a

theoretical probability.

What I Know

ARE YOU READY?

Complete these exercises to review mathematical skill you will need for this module.

Simplify Fractions:

EXAMPLE: Simplify ,
12: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 12 List all the factors of the numerator and denominator.
21: 1, 3, 7, 21 Circle the greatest common factor (GCF).
Divide the numerator and denominator by the GCF.

Write each fraction in simplest form.

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

i NegOr_Q4_Mathematics8_Module8_v2
 Lesson Probability of an Event: Experimental and
Theoretical Probability

https://luminousmen.com/media/data-science-probability_1.jpg

Life has a lot of uncertainties. Oftentimes, our decisions in life are done
under conditions of uncertainty. These are the probabilities of life.

QUESTIONS:

1. Do you think it is possible for you to determine the chance of occurrence of an event?
2. Have you at a certain time asked yourself these questions, “Will I probably win this
game? Should I bring my umbrella tomorrow?”
3. Are the words in the illustration familiar to you?
4. What particular topic comes to your mind when you see the words in the illustration?
5. How does probability help you in making real life decisions?

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 What’s In

ACTIVITY 1: WORDS COME EASY!

Join Jayar and his friends perform the same experiment. Record each outcome of your
experiment. Then fill in the blanks using the basic concepts of probability to complete the
paragraph.
Jayar and his friends decided to find the number of times three heads “HHH” would
come up when flipping three five-peso coins simultaneously. Every time Jayar and his friends
flip the fair coins is an ____________. The ____________ that they are looking for is to
come up with three heads: {HHH}. The ____________ is the set of all possible outcomes:
{HHH}, {HTH} … {TTT}.

These are the results of their experiment. Complete the table

Trial Trial Trial Trial Trial Trial Trial Trial Trial

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Coin 1 H H T T H H T T T
Coin 2 T T T H T H T H T
Coin 3 T H T H T H H T T
Outcome HTT HTH
Is it
{HHH}? NO NO
YES OR NO

In order to find all the ____________, they have to continue flipping the coins for at
least 30 times.

Questions:

1. Were you able to complete the paragraph with the correct words?
2. Do the words come easy to you? Why?
3. After 9 trials, Jayar and his friends had 1 “HHH” event. Is the result of the experiment close
to what you have expected? What would have they done to make it closer to what is expected?
4. In your group experiment, how many “HHH” events did you have? Is the result of your
experiment close to what is expected? Why?
5. What Jayar, his friends and your group had performed uses an Experimental Probability.
In your own understanding, how do you define Experimental Probability?

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ACTIVITY 2: WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY?
Probabilities can be solved theoretically in which each event is assumed to be equally
likely. Look carefully at the given set then match column A with column B. Your answers
will help you understand the concept on the probability of an event.
Given: Set R = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12}
Column A Column B
1 6 1
The probability of having: a. d. 𝑜𝑟
12 12 2
_____ 1. a 10
2 1 6 1
_____ 2. a 13 b. 𝑜𝑟 e. 𝑜𝑟
12 6 12 12
_____ 3. odd numbers
_____ 4. even numbers 3 1 0
c. 𝑜𝑟 f. 𝑜𝑟 0
_____ 5. an odd number divisible by 3 12 4 12

_____ 6. an even number divisible by 3

Questions:

1. How many possible outcomes are there?

2. To have even numbers, how many favorable outcomes are there?
3. Considering your answers, how do you compute for the probability of an event?
4. What formula can be used?
5. This activity uses Theoretical Probability. How do you define Theoretical
Probability?

What’s New

Experimental Probability – the probability of an outcome of an event based on an

experiment. The more trials done in an experiment, the closer the experimental probability
gets to the theoretical probability.
Theoretical Probability – the probability that a certain outcome will occur as determined
through reasoning or calculation.

To enrich your knowledge about the difference between Experimental Probability and
Theoretical Probability, you may visit these sites:
www.algebra-class.com/theoretical-probability.html
What is It
http://www.onlinemathlearning.com/theoretical-probability.html

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Calculating Experimental Probability

You can use experimental probability to approximate the probability of an event.

An experimental probability of an event is found by comparing the number of times
the event occurs to the total number of trials.
For a given experiment:
Experimental probability = number of times the event occurs (frequency)
total number of trials

Example:
Mae has a bag of marbles. She removed one Color Frequency
marble at random, recorded the color and then Red 12
placed it back in the bag. She repeated this process Blue 10
several times and recorded his results in the table. Green 15
Find the experimental probability of drawing each Yellow 13
color.

Step 1: Identify the number of trials: 12 + 10 + 15 + 13 = 50

Step 2: Complete the table of experimental probabilities.
Write each answer as a fraction in simplest form. You can also
write each
Color Experimental Probability probability
Red as a decimal
= = or percent.
Blue
=
Green
=
Yellow

Calculating Theoretical Probability

Theoretical probability is the probability that an event occurs when all of the
outcomes of the experiment are equally likely.

For a given experiment:

P(E) =

Probability can be written as a fraction, a decimal, or a percent. For example, the

probability you’ll win the game is . You can also write that as 0.3125 or as 31.25%.

4 NegOr_Q4_Mathematics8_Module8_v2
Example:

A bag contains 6 red marbles and 12 blue ones. You select one marble at random
from the bag. What is the probability that you select a red marble? Write your answer in
simplest form.

Step 1: Find the number of ways the event can occur, that is, the number of red
marbles: 6

Step 2: Add to find the total number of equally likely outcomes.

6 (no. of red marbles) + 12 (no. of blue marbles) = 18 (total no. of marbles)
There are 18 possible outcomes in the sample space.

Step 3: Find the probability of selecting a red marble.

P(red marble) = = =

The probability that you select a red marble is or 0.3333 or 33.33%.

What’s More

SEE MY PROB-ABILITY!

Solve the following carefully, then write the correct answer on your Mathematics notebook.
_____ 1. Ear is asked to choose a day from a week. What is the probability of choosing a day
which starts with S?

_____ 2. Choosing a month from a year, what is the probability of selecting a month with 31
days?
_____ 3. If a letter is chosen at random from the word PERSEVERANCE, what is the
probability that the letter chosen is E?

_____4. If one letter is chosen at random from the word TRUSTWORTHY, what is the
probability that the letter chosen is a consonant?

_____ 5. The sides of a cube are numbered 11 to 16. If Jane rolled the cube once, what is the
probability of rolling a composite number?

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 What I Have Learned

REFLECTION JOURNAL

In this module, you learned concepts which helped you accomplished the different
tasks successfully. This time, kindly answer this activity which would show how important
this module is in your day- to- day activities.

In this module, I learned about

I can use these concepts

These are very important because

I understand that

I can use the basic concepts of probability in my day to day activities by

What I Can Do

LET’S DO AN ACTIVITY!
Gather data on the number of typhoons that hit the country in the previous year. Using
the basic concepts of probability, come up with a report showing the estimated chances of a
typhoon hitting the country for each month.
The report should contain the following:
1. Representation of collected data.
2. Process of coming up with estimated probabilities.
3. Explanation on what type of probabilities is generated in the task.

Write your answers on short size bondpaper.

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 Rubric for the Written Group Report

10 7 4 1
Representation Is complete, Is incomplete
Is complete and Is complete but
of Data and organized, and and
organized. disorganized
Explanation clear disorganized
Has correct and Has correct
Has illustration Has no
Process/ appropriate illustration or
or solution but illustration or
Computation illustration or solution with
has errors solution
solution minor error

Assessment

Pos-test:

Find the probability of each event. Write each answer as a fraction in simplest form.
1. You spin the spinner shown. The spinner lands on shaded part.

2. You spin the spinner shown. The spinner lands on shaded or

dotted part.

3. A jar contains 4 cherry cough drops and 10 honey cough drops. You choose one
cough drop without looking. The cough drop is cherry.

4. The names of the students in a math class are written on the board. The teacher
writes each name on an index card and shuffles the cards. Each day a card is
drawn randomly. The chosen student explains a math problem at the board. What
is the probability that Ryan is chosen today? What is the probability that Ryan is
not chosen today?’

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 5. You pick one card at random from a standard deck of 52 playing cards. You pick
a black card.

6. There are 12 pieces of fruit in a bowl. Five are lemons and the rest are limes. You
choose a piece of fruit without looking. The piece of fruit is a lime.

Additional Activities

H.O.T. Focus on Higher Order Thinking

1. A bowl of flower seeds contains 5 petunia seeds and 15 begonia seeds. Riley calculated the
probability that a randomly selected seed is a petunia seed is 1/3. Describe and correct
Riley’s error.
2. There are 20 seventh graders and 15 eighth graders in a club. A club president will be
chosen at random.
a. Compare the probabilities of choosing a seventh grader or an eighth grader.
b. If a student from one grade is more likely to be chosen than a student from the other, is
the method unfair? Explain.

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 Answer Key

What’s More
1. 2. 3.
What’s In

Activity 1 4. 5.
Pre-test: Experiment, event
sample space
1. 5. TTT – NO THH – NO
HTT – NO HHH – YES
TTH – NO THT - NO
2. TTT - NO
Outcomes
3.
Activity 2
1. a 4. d
4. 2. f 5. b
3. d 6. b

Reflection Journal Post-test:

Answers may vary 1. 2.

3. 4.

5. 6.

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References
Books:
Abuzo, Emmanuel P., et. al. 2013. Mathematics 8 Learner's Module. Book Media Press, Inc.
Abuzo, Emmanuel P., et. al. 2013. Mathematics 8 Teacher's Guide. Book Media Press, Inc.

Websites:
https://www.goldenrams.com/cms/lib/PA01000390/Centricity/Domain/247/Module%2012%
20Student%20Book%20Pages.pdf
https://www.washoeschools.net/cms/lib/NV01912265/Centricity/Domain/880/module13%20
7th.pdf

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