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Statistics 3 - Probability

This document discusses key concepts in probability. It defines probability as the chance of an event occurring and describes probability experiments like coin flips or card draws. It discusses classical probability which assumes outcomes are equally likely versus empirical probability which relies on actual experience. It presents rules for probabilities like they cannot be negative or over 1. It also covers complementary events, Venn diagrams, the law of large numbers, and subjective probability which uses educated guesses.

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أمجد هاتف منفي جفال
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44 views31 pages

Statistics 3 - Probability

This document discusses key concepts in probability. It defines probability as the chance of an event occurring and describes probability experiments like coin flips or card draws. It discusses classical probability which assumes outcomes are equally likely versus empirical probability which relies on actual experience. It presents rules for probabilities like they cannot be negative or over 1. It also covers complementary events, Venn diagrams, the law of large numbers, and subjective probability which uses educated guesses.

Uploaded by

أمجد هاتف منفي جفال
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© © All Rights Reserved
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Lecture Three

Probability
Probability

Probability as a general concept can be defined as the


chance of an event occurring.
Probability
Processes such as flipping a coin, rolling a die, or drawing a card
from a deck are called probability experiments.
Probability
Probability
Probability
Probability
Tree Diagram
Probability
Rounding Rule for Probabilities
 Probabilities can be expressed as fractions, decimals, or—where
appropriate—percentages.
 If you ask, “What is the probability of getting a head when a coin
is tossed?” typical responses can be any of the following three.
“One-half, 1/2”
“Point five, 0.5”
“Fifty percent, 50%”
 These answers are all equivalent.
 Probabilities should be expressed as reduced fractions or
rounded to two or three decimal places.
 When the probability of an event is an extremely small decimal, it
is permissible to round the decimal to the first nonzero digit after
the point.
 For example, 0.0000587 would be 0.00006.
 If decimals are converted to percentages to express
probabilities, move the decimal point two places to the right and
add a percent sign.
Probability Rules

Rule 1 states that probabilities cannot be negative or greater than 1.

In other words, if P(E) = 1, then the event E is certain to occur.


Example:
Example:
Complementary Event
Example:
Example:
Venn Diagram
The difference between classical and empirical probability is
that classical probability assumes that certain outcomes are
equally likely (such as the outcomes when a die is rolled),
while empirical probability relies on actual experience to
determine the likelihood of outcomes.
Example:
Example:
Law of Large Numbers
 When a coin is tossed one time, it is common knowledge that
the probability of getting a head is 1/2. But what happens when
the coin is tossed 50 times? Will it come up heads 25 times? Not
all the time. You should expect about 25 heads if the coin is fair.
But due to chance variation, 25 heads will not occur most of the
time.
 If the empirical probability of getting a head is computed by
using a small number of trials, it is usually not exactly 1/2.
However, as the number of trials increases, the empirical
probability of getting a head will approach the theoretical
probability of 1/2, if in fact the coin is fair (i.e., balanced). This
phenomenon is an example of the law of large numbers.
Subjective Probability
 Subjective probability uses a probability value based on an
educated guess or estimate, employing opinions and inexact
information.
 In subjective probability, a person or group makes an educated
guess at the chance that an event will occur.
 This guess is based on the person’s experience and evaluation of a
solution.
 A physician might say that, on the basis of her diagnosis, there is a
30% chance the patient will need an operation.
 A seismologist might say there is an 80% probability that an
earthquake will occur in a certain area.
 These are only a few examples of how subjective probability is
used in everyday life.
 All three types of probability (classical, empirical, and subjective)
are used to solve a variety of problems in business, engineering,
and other fields.
Thank you

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