0% found this document useful (0 votes)
38 views8 pages

Decision Science - NMIMS

The document discusses using a probability tree diagram to calculate the probability that a cricket team called Garuda will win a series based on available data. It provides the probabilities of Garuda winning the series and winning/losing the first game. A tree diagram is constructed showing the different probability branches. Calculations using the tree diagram determine the probability that Garuda will win the series given they lose the first game is 0.375.
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
Download as pdf or txt
0% found this document useful (0 votes)
38 views8 pages

Decision Science - NMIMS

The document discusses using a probability tree diagram to calculate the probability that a cricket team called Garuda will win a series based on available data. It provides the probabilities of Garuda winning the series and winning/losing the first game. A tree diagram is constructed showing the different probability branches. Calculations using the tree diagram determine the probability that Garuda will win the series given they lose the first game is 0.375.
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1/ 8

Answer 1.

It is based on the existing scenario, the series of these events, i.e., The Indian Premier
League's
final season, features their preferred group, Garuda. According to experienced, i.e., Raj Kaul,
Garuda's possibility to win is 60% based on his analysis of the current circumstance. When
groups
win 70% of the time, they win the series opener in the championship, Records from the
previous
program. After losing 25% of the time in the series, they take the opening game. The opening
suit
is finished, and their team is lost or defeated. Therefore, the probability that it will win their
series
i.e.
W: A circumstance or event whereby team Garuda wins the series
L: A circumstance that the team Garuda loses the series
F: A circumstance that the team Garuda wins the first game
F’: A circumstance that the team Garuda loses the first game
From the given data:
P (W) = 0.6, it tracks that p (L) = 1-0.6 = 0.4
P (F/W) = 0.70, it tracks that p (F’/W) = 1-0.70 = 0.3
P (F/L) =0.25, it tracks that p (F’/L) = 1- 0.25 = 0.75

GARUDA

Win the Series Lost the series

0.6 0.4
Win the first game Lost the first game win the first game Lost the first
game

0.70 0.30 0.25 0.75

A tree diagram can represent a probability space in analytical inference. These images could
represent a collection of different events. The sequence of steps that must be taken to solve
the problem is shown in a tree diagram. A tree diagram starts with a lone node, and as each
node's connections turn into new branches, a tree architecture is created. It indicates the
possibility that an event will occur without requiring elaborate calculations (Blitzstein &
Hwang, (2015). It reveals all the consequences that the event could have. A probability tree
aims to enumerate all possible effects of an event and calculate the probability of each of
them. Because they capture all possible outcomes, are helpful in randomness. In options and
data, a tree graph calculates the number of alternatives for an event when they are given up in
an orderly manner. The path of each branch in the tree diagram corresponds to a possible
course of the event. It is a simple technique for showing the progression of events and
captures each possible outcome (Choi, (2021).

With the help of the tree diagram used in the case study, Garuda can start in a solitary place,
take a trip along parts of the tree, experience collectively limiting events, or make mutually
inconsistent judgments. The concept behind this diagram is that Garuda has the alternative of
winning or losing the collection and is considered the starting node. It provides strategic
action by combining chances, options, prices and incentives to make decisions. A single
entity serves as the initial factor of the diagram, from which branches out to other nodes that
represent equally exclusive possibilities or events. Still, in the 2nd node, various other
choices or alternatives want to happen until the method gets ahead.
The decision of the probability tree is as follows:
The Required probability is p (W/F) P (W/F’) = p (W F’) / P (F’) Ո 0.18 / 0.18 +0.3 0.180 /
48
=0.375

Ans 2.
Calculations of Regression Analysis:
X Y X*Y X*X Y*Y
5 5 25 25 25
5 5 25 25 25
4 5 20 16 25
4 5 20 16 25
5 5 25 25 25
5 5 25 25 25
3 5 15 9 25
5 5 25 25 25
4 4 16 16 16
4 4 16 16 16
4 4 16 16 16
4 4 16 16 16
3 4 12 9 16
3 4 12 9 16
4 4 16 16 16
2 4 8 4 16
3 3 9 9 9
3 3 9 9 9
3 3 9 9 9
2 3 6 4 9
2 2 4 4 4
2 2 4 4 4
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
3 1 3 9 1
1 1 1 1 1
SUM = 86 SUM = 93 SUM = 340 SUM = 320 SUM = 377

With the given data X = 86 /27 = 3.185185 Y


= 93/27 = 3.444444444
= 320 - / 27 = 46.0740
= 377 - /27 = 56.66666
Therefore, – (
= 93/27 = 43.777
As a result, using the computations above, the regression coefficients (the inclination m and
the Yintercept n) were just as follows:
M = SSxy / SSxx = 43.77777/ 46.074074 = 0.9502 N = Y – X *m = 3.4444444-
3.185185185 *0.9502 = 0.418
Through this, the regression equation is = Y = 0.418 + 0.9502 X
Therefore, based on the information provided above, the following scatter plot and regression
plot are obtained:
Y-Values

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

The Line of regression Y on X is


Y = 0.418 + 0.9502 X

Regression is a quantitative statistical approach that allows researchers to examine the


relationship between 2 or more vital parameters. Although the regression version has
numerous variations, at their core they examine the effects of one or even many more random
parameters on the predictor variables. They analyze how a particular informational impact
would affect financial performance or predict the values of a dependent variable for
individuals who have access to some information only about the predictor variables. It
consists of following three phases.•
• Investigating the correlation of data and directional signs.
• Estimates a model or fits a line.
• Determines the usability and accuracy of the design.
Regression forecasting can undoubtedly be useful for a data manager in future directions
from a business perspective. There are several types of regression evaluation: linear,
quadratic, and sequential. Simple, multiple and routine direct models are much more typical.
Nonlinear regression analysis is usually used for much more complicated data sets where the
dependence and relationship between variables is exponential. Multivariate regression has
several applications in the selection of industries, more precisely economic solutions.
• Approximates future and current returns.
• Recognizes need and availability.
• They recognize stock levels.
• Explore and understand the effects of variables on each of these elements.
Based on the given data, through analysis and calculations, Y= 0.418 + 0.9502 X is the
regression line of Y on X, which means that the regression of y on x is the term used to
explain this relationship, where y is the dependent variable and x is the independent variable .
A straight-line formula called a regression equation can be used to illustrate the relationship.
B1 is the slope of the regression formula, as b1 = 0.9502, which shows a favorable
relationship between them, because the scale is from 1 to 5. A higher unit in the quality rating
offered by consumers promotes an increase in consumer satisfaction scores.
Why is it easier for us to think about examples of businesses that failed to please us
instead of examples of businesses that have pleased us? There is a wide variety of possible
descriptions for it. We prepare to satisfy our requirements when we pay for the product or
service. We don't scream with joy and shout, "Isn't that remarkable? It worked!" That's the
service
which we paid with our cash. To this, include an increasingly strict globe
requirements. Although we have access to products that would have amazed our fantastic
grandparents,
we don't think much about them because we are used to them. Basic
Why is it easier for us to think of examples of businesses that failed to please us instead of
examples of businesses that did please us? There are a wide variety of possible descriptions
for this. We prepare to satisfy our requirements when we pay for a product or service. We
don't scream with joy and shout, "Isn't that remarkable? It worked!" This is a service we paid
for with our cash. Add to that the increasingly stringent requirements of the globe. Although
we have access to products that would have amazed our fantastic grandparents, we don't think
much about them because we've gotten used to using them. The basic keeps increasing and
increasing. Meanwhile, our lives gradually become much more complicated, resulting in
increased levels of stress. In this environment, it is increasingly difficult to achieve high
levels of customer satisfaction and delight the customers you have. And even if every one of
your clients is satisfied with the product and services you offer, there is still an opportunity
for a significant number of them to switch and start working with your opponents.
Answer 3 a.
State Name District Name Total MSMEs Relative Result
Frequency = Sub
group frequency,
the total frequency
TRIPURA WEST TRIPURA 2915 2915/6651 .43
TRIPURA SOUTH TRIPURA 586 586/6651 .08
TRIPURA DHALAI 439 439/6651 .006
TRIPURA NORTH TRIPURA 854 854/6651 .012
TRIPURA KHOWAI 514 514/6651 .06
TRIPURA UNAKOTI 447 447/6651 .06
TRIPURA SEPAHIJALA 383 383/6651 .05
TRIPURA GOMATI 513 513/6651 .07
SUM 6651 1

By using excel
Relative frequency = F1/total frequency ex.
Relative frequency = F1/total frequency
= 2915/6651 = 0.438279958
When compared to the total number of observations, the frequency of
occurrence of a specific event category is referred to as its relative regularity. It is a
frequency that entails using proportions, fractions, and percentages.
Calculations based upon relative frequency entail separating the total number of observations
by the count of a particular category of incidents to reach a percentage representation of the
count. Complying with constitutes its method:

Relative Frequency = Count on Events/Total number of observations.


Relative frequencies also work as empirical possibilities. Chances quantify the possibility that
particular events will take place. Calculations of possibilities often make extensive use of the
concept. If, on the other hand, you observe the relative frequency of an occasion, you are
managing an empirical likelihood. To put it simply, analysts compute them based on actual
life observations instead of academic models

From the above chart it is seen that west Tripura of has maximum numbers MSME's

Answer 3 B.
Based on the given data, it analyses the Relative Frequency is the series of outcomes
created by detailed data that figure out the relative frequency. Each time they carry out the
study, they can transform this periodicity. The determined relative frequency of an
occasion will approach the predicted possibility of occurring in the different experiments
they run. It is revealed that the WEST TRIPURA and the NORTH TRIPURA in Andhra
Pradesh are two districts that show higher value in Relative Frequency (McManus, (2015
). Therefore, they assess the top 2 districts based on relative frequency as West Tripura
and North Tripura has the highest relative frequency, i.e., 0.43 and 0.12.

State Name District Name Number of Micro, Small and


Medium Enterprises
ANDHRA SRIKAKULAM 10895
PRADESH
ANDHRA VIZIANAGARAM 30186
PRADESH
ANDHRA VISAKHAPATNAM 29070
PRADESH
ANDHRA EAST GODAVARI 26546
PRADESH
ANDHRA WEST GODAVARI 33541
PRADESH
ANDHRA KRISHNA 23231
PRADESH
ANDHRA GUNTUR 25479
PRADESH
ANDHRA PRAKASAM 45171
PRADESH

Two districts of data


3500

3000

2500

2000

1500
West Tripura North Tripura
ANDHRA SPSR NELLORE 54059
PRADESH
ANDHRA Y.S.R 37500
PRADESH
ANDHRA KURNOOL 15362
PRADESH
ANDHRA ANANTHAPUR 21193
PRADESH
ANDHRA CHITOOR 27670
PRADESH

The median is the statistic that appears in the middle of a team of data points. The median
is the value that hinges on the middle of the distribution. The facts should first be
categorized from ideal to worst or as least to most significant to get the median. A
population's upper and lower fifty percent, a circulation function, or an option of data are
represented by the top and reduced fifty percent of the median—the median changes for
different populations. Fifty percent of the statistics are more often, and half are
dramatically reduced. The median permits the expression of several information factors
using a solitary one. The median is the most straightforward analytical step to compute.

Here is the method for determining the median of a data set with a limited amount of
observations. When there are also weird varieties of observations, the median formula is
various. As a result, it is vital to determine if a particular data collection has an odd variety
ofitems or an even number of values.

There are total no of district = 13


So median = = =

So, MEDIAN VALUE = 27670

The list of the district is CHITTOOR in Andhra Pradesh

You might also like