Overview of the Climate

System
1.10 Feedbacks & Climate Sensitivity
Schematic of the Climate System

2
What is a Feedback

Climate
Forcing Response
System

Feedbacks

3
Climate Feedback
• A climate feedback is an internal climate process that amplifies or
dampens the climate response to a specific forcing. For example:
• The increase in atmospheric water vapor that is triggered by an initial
warming due to rising carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, which then acts to
amplify the warming through the greenhouse properties of water vapor.

4
Recall
Incoming 1 Outgoing
shortwave (1   ) S 0  Te4
longwave
Radiation 4 Radiation

Suppose that a perturbation of the climate Wm-2

system can be represented as an additional dQ
energy input

We can study the resulting change in global

mean surface temperature
dTs
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Climate sensitivity
dTs
We can define to be a measure of climate sensitivity
dQ
Increased
What happens when the planet warms up? radiation back
to space
A negative feedback!
Assuming Te and Ts
Q   (T )  4T Ts
e
4
e
3
are offset by a
constant

Blackbody Ts 1 o
K
  0.26 (Using Te = 255°K)
Feedback QBB 4Te3
Wm  2 6
When temperature increases, the amount of water
vapor also increases

T
Recall
es  Ae A = 6.11 hPa
β = 0.067 ºC-1
des i.e. a 1ºC change in T leads to ~7%
 dT change in saturated specific
es humidity

Since H20 is a GHG, it further raises the surface

temperature
Ts o
K
 0.5
QBB  H 2O Wm  2 7
Water Vapor Feedback

Increasing
Warming
GHGs

Increased Greenhouse
Water Vapor strengthens

8
Ice-Albedo Feedback

Increasing
Warming
GHGs

Melting snow Reduced

and ice albedo

9
What is the Lapse Rate Feedback?
Warmer air up high can radiate
heat away to space more easily
than warmer air near the ground.
h

In the future climate, the temperature is

predicted to increase throughout the
troposphere, but it increases more aloft
than near the surface. The lapse rate is,
Temperature therefore, said to decrease.

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Lapse Rate Feedback

Increasing
Warming
GHGs

Decreased More Cooling

Lapse Rate to Space

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Low Cloud Feedback

Increasing
Warming
GHGs

More bright,
Higher albedo
low clouds

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High Cloud Feedback

Increasing
Warming
GHGs

More high Greenhouse

cloud strengthens

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Carbon Cycle Feedbacks

+ +

- -
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Carbonate-silicate cycle: Long term feedbacks
ensure stability of the Earth’s climate system

15
What kind of Feedback is the Carbonate-
Silicate Cycle?
CO2 Concentration

Equilibrium

Time
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Kinds of Feedbacks
• Water vapor feedback
• Albedo Feedback
• Lapse-rate feedback
• Cloud feedback(s)
• Cloud amount
• Cloud top height
• Cloud optical properties
• Carbon cycle feedback

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Fast & Slow Feedbacks
• Fast feedbacks:
• Occur rapidly in response to a change in surface temperature
• Water vapor feedback
• Lapse rate feedback
• Ice-albedo feedback (snow/sea-ice)
• Clouds
• Slow feedbacks:
• Processes that respond slowly (decades or longer) to increasing surface
temperature, so they require a long period of warmth before they
significantly alter energy balance
• Permafrost / Carbon cycle / Vegetation / Weathering

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 Equilibrium climate sensitivity ΔTEq2×CO2

• Defined as steady-state global average surface air temperature

change ΔT for 2×CO2.
• Estimated to be 2.5–4.0 K in the latest IPCC report (AR6).
• Why do we care about ΔT?
• The spatial and seasonal patterns of change in all quantities scale quite well
with ΔT, which we can regard as measuring the “magnitude” of climate
change.
• Also, ΔT is well measured and has good signal/noise.

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Why 2xCO2?
dT2CO2  ?  K  X CO2 (t ) 
F   r ln 
 X CO (t0 ) 
Fraction of Radiation Absorbed

 2 

Band Saturation!  r  5.4W

m2
1.0
How much does Q change for
(say) a doubling of CO2
If CO2 doubles, OLR reduces by 3.74Wm-2

GHG Concentration 20
What is the value of “Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity?
• Charney Report (1979) said: 1.5-4.5°C

• IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007): 2.0-4.5°C

• IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2013):1.5-4.5°C

• IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (2021): 2.5-4.0°C
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Transient Climate Response to Cumulative
Emissions (TCRE)
Temperature Change

Cumulative CO2 Emissions 22

Summary
Climate System Responses

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Observed Global Mean Temperature

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 What have we learned so far (1)
• Earth’s temperature (TE) is determined by Radiative Equilibrium with
space.
• Earth’s surface temperature (TS) is determined by Radiative-Convective
Equilibrium (RCE).
• Complex heat transport processes (Atmosphere & Ocean) distributes
heat across latitudes.
• Distribution of land & ocean further sets the patterns of temperature,
rainfall etc.

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 What have we learned so far (2)
• Changing the solar constant, albedo or outgoing longwave radiation
are the ways the temperature of earth can be altered
• The imbalance in radiation at the TOA due to these factors is radiative
forcing.
• Many forcing factors have been identified (both positive & negative).
• Carbon-di-oxide and other GHGs
• Aerosols (Direct & indirect effects)

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 What have we learned so far (3)
• The carbon-cycle determines the fate of CO2 in the atmosphere.
• The sources and sinks of C identified and buildup of CO2 can be
calculated
• These forcings act on the climate system and have a resulting
response.
• Climate system response (i.e. temperature change due to forcing) is
a function of feedbacks
• How much will temperature rise for given emission/radiative forcing?
(Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity or ECS)
• TCRE determines how the cumulative emissions determine temperature
change

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 What have we learned so far (4)
• Observed temperature change across the globe and over India
• Other observed changes in the climate system
• Questions:
• How will radiative forcing change in the the future?
• How will climate change as a result?
• Is there reason to be concerned about these changes?
• What should we do about it?

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End of Lesson-1