Fractional Modelling

Results in Physics 24 (2021) 104213
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Results in Physics
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/rinp
A new fractional mathematical modelling of COVID-19 with the availability

of vaccine
Pushpendra Kumar a ,∗, Vedat Suat Erturk b , Marina Murillo-Arcila c
a Department of Mathematics and Statistics, School of Basic and Applied Sciences, Central University of Punjab, Bathinda, Punjab 151001, India
b
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Ondokuz Mayis University, Atakum 55200, Samsun, Turkey
c
Instituto Universitario de Matematica Pura y Aplicada, Universitat Politècnica de València, 46022 Valencia, Spain
ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT
MSC: The most dangerous disease of this decade novel coronavirus or COVID-19 is yet not over. The whole world is
26A33 facing this threat and trying to stand together to defeat this pandemic. Many countries have defeated this
37N25 virus by their strong control strategies and many are still trying to do so. To date, some countries have
92C60
prepared a vaccine against this virus but not in an enough amount. In this research article, we proposed
92D30
a new SEIRS dynamical model by including the vaccine rate. First we formulate the model with integer
Keywords: order and after that we generalize it in Atangana–Baleanu derivative sense. The high motivation to apply
COVID-19
Atangana–Baleanu fractional derivative on our model is to explore the dynamics of the model more clearly.
Vaccine
We provide the analysis of the existence of solution for the given fractional SEIRS model. We use the famous
Virus
Mathematical model Predictor–Corrector algorithm to derive the solution of the model. Also, the analysis for the stability of the
Numerical algorithm given algorithm is established. We simulate number of graphs to see the role of vaccine on the dynamics of the
Atangana–Baleanu fractional derivative population. For practical simulations, we use the parameter values which are based on real data of Spain. The
main motivation or aim of this research study is to justify the role of vaccine in this tough time of COVID-19.
A clear role of vaccine at this crucial time can be realized by this study.
Introduction nose, sore throat, and diarrhoea. Those patients who suffer the most se-
vere form of the disease can develop pneumonia [4]. This pandemic has
COVID-19 disease caused by the novel SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has tested public health systems from all countries and different measures
become a widespread epidemic without precedents all over the world such as quarantines, lockdowns and social distancing measures have
affecting millions of individuals. The first registered case appeared in been taken in order to control and contain the advance of the disease.
December 2019 in Wuhan, China, and it rapidly spread all around In order to combact this disease, mathematical models and simulations
China and then all over the world [1]. The World Health Organiza- are playing a very important role for taking preventive measures and
tion (WHO) proclaimed the COVID-19 as a international public health anticipating the advance of the disease since these models help to fore-
emergency on 31 January and declared it as a pandemic on 11 March. see the possible future scenarios, see [5,6] and the references therein.
As stated by the WHO report, all around the world, as of February 6th, An investigation about the influence of nonpharmaceutical measures
2021, there have been 104,370,550 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and
on the dynamics of COVID-19 was considered in [7]. In [8] a model
2,271,180 deaths.
analysing the effects of the super-spreader class in the propagation of
Compared to other viral infectious disease such as Influenza whose
the disease was studied.
dynamics can be described using SIR models, COVID-19 has the follow-
COVID-19 has caused havoc in many countries. Spain, whose data
ing characteristics [2]: it has a long incubation period; the transmission
of infection is going to be considered in this paper, has been one of
of this malady is difficult to control due to the fact that it can be prop-
the most damaged by this epidemic presenting one of the highest rate
agated by asymptomatic patients [3] and it can be detected through
PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction) tests. This virus can cause the death, of infected individuals and deaths per million inhabitants. The first
specially in elderly individuals or those with previous affections such as case in Spain was reported at the end of January 2020. At the middle
Cancer, Diabetes or arterial hypertension. Most common symptoms of of March, a national lockdown was forced in order to stabilize the
the COVID-19 are fever, fatigue, and a dry cough, pain, stuffy and runny epidemic. Since then, more than 2.91 millions of infections have been
∗ Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: kumarsaraswatpk@gmail.com (P. Kumar), vserturk@omu.edu.tr (V.S. Erturk), mamuar1@upv.es (M. Murillo-Arcila).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104213
Received 9 February 2021; Received in revised form 11 March 2021; Accepted 13 April 2021
Available online 20 April 2021
2211-3797/© 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
P. Kumar et al. Results in Physics 24 (2021) 104213
reported and more than 60,000 people have dead due to Covid-19. in Atangana–Baleanu fractional derivative sense. We also show the
Spanish government has imposed strong measures in order to avoid existence of a unique solution by using Picard–Lindelof method. The
the expansion of the virus among the population. These actions include derivation of the solution for the proposed model is obtained by the
among others social distancing, compulsory use of nose mask and application of Predictor–Corrector algorithm with its stability analysis.
temporal lockdown of commercial establishments [9]. Since January, A brief discussion on the model dynamics by the graphical work is
mass-vaccination campaigns have already started in several countries given in ‘Graphical simulations’. We simulate the graphs at different
being Spain one of them. However, a worldwide distribution of COVID- transmission rate and vaccine rate by calculating the different basic
19 vaccines is a difficult and long procedure and then the effects of reproductive numbers. A conclusion section is included at the end of
such starting vaccination campaigns are not reflected in the number of the paper.
infections reported daily yet.
Fractional derivatives have been extensively used for modelling due Preliminaries
to their nonlocal character. This property makes fractional differential
equations a really useful tool for describing phenomena in nature which Some preliminary results are discussed here.
have memory and hereditary properties. These derivatives present sev-
eral applications in many fields of science such as chemistry, physics, Definition 1 ([32]). For any given function  ∈  1 (𝑝, 𝑞), where 𝑞 > 𝑝
or engineering, see for instance [10–13] and the monographs [14–16]. and 0 ≤ 𝜁 ≤ 1, the non-integer order Atangana–Baleanu (AB) derivative
In one of the research fields in which its use has stood out the most is is given as follows:
epidemiology. For instance in [17] Mouaouine et al. introduced a Ca- [ ]
𝐴𝐵𝐶 𝜁  [𝜁] 𝑡 ′ (𝑡 − 𝜂)𝜁
puto fractional SIR epidemic model considering a nonlinear incidence 𝑝 𝐷𝑡 ( (𝑡)) =  (𝜂) 𝐸 𝜁 𝜁 𝑑𝜂. (1)
1 − 𝜁 ∫𝑝 𝜁 −1
rate. The same fractional derivative has been implemented in [18]
in a SEIR model where the death rate of the population is density where  [𝜁] satisfying  [0] =  [1]= 1 denotes the normalization
dependent. Recently, researchers in [19] have analysed a non-linear function and 𝐸𝜁 (.) is the one-parameter Mittag-Leffler function.
fractional tuberculosis epidemic model. Akgul et al. have proposed
some new applications on the dynamics of Coronavirus in [20]. Kumar Definition 2 ([32]). The non-integer order AB integral for normaliza-
et al. [21] have used the modified version of Caputo type fractional tion function  [𝜁] is given as
derivative for studying the outbreaks of COVID-19 in India by using 𝑡
𝐴𝐵𝐶 𝜁 1−𝜁 𝜁
the real raw data based parameter values. In [22], authors gave a 𝑝 𝐼𝑡 ( (𝑡)) =  (𝑡) +  (𝜂) (𝑡 − 𝜂)𝜁−1 𝑑𝜂. (2)
 [𝜁] 𝛤 (𝜁) [𝜁] ∫𝑝
prediction based study on the COVID-19 structure for the Brazilian
data. Peter et al. [23] organized a brief discussion on the structure
of non-classical non-linear mathematical framework of Coronavirus in Lemma 1 ([33]). If 0 < 𝜁 < 1 and 𝑎1 is an integer (non-negative), then
Nigeria by using the Atangana–Baleanu type non-classical derivative there exist the +𝑣𝑒 constants 𝐶𝜁,1 and 𝐶𝜁,2 only dependent on 𝜁, s.t
with Mittag-Leffler memory effects. Recently, Kumar et al. [24] defined (𝑎1 + 1)𝜁 − 𝑎𝜁1 ≤ 𝐶𝜁,1 (𝑎1 + 1)𝜁−1 ,
the structure of an ecological model via new generalized Caputo type
non-integer order operator by using a recent version of Predictor– and
Corrector algorithm. In [25], authors solved a non-linear model of
(𝑎1 + 2)𝜁+1 − 2(𝑎1 + 1)𝜁+1 + 𝑎𝜁+1
1
≤ 𝐶𝜁,2 (𝑎1 + 1)𝜁−1 .
Malaria disease via Caputo–Fabrizio fractional derivative. Every day,
number of novel analysis are being obtained by the mathematicians
in the field of fractional calculus. Early, Researchers in [26] estimated Lemma 2 ([33]). Let us assume 𝜈𝑝,𝑛 = (𝑛 − 𝑝)𝜁−1 (𝑝 = 1, 2, … , 𝑛 − 1) &
𝜈𝑝,𝑛 = 0 for 𝑝 ≥ 𝑛, 𝜁 , 𝑀, ℎ, 𝑇 > 0, 𝑎1 ℎ ≤ 𝑇 & 𝑎1 is a +𝑣𝑒 integer. Let
some new novel results by the generalizations in the frame of weighted ∑𝑝=𝑛
non-singular non-integer order integral operators. 𝑝=𝑎 𝜈𝑝,𝑛 |𝑒𝑝 | = 0 for 𝑘 > 𝑛 ≥ 1. If
1
The high interest in modelling dynamics of COVID-19 disease via
∑
𝑛−1
fractional derivatives can be reflected in the literature. In [27] the |𝑒𝑛 | ≤ 𝑀ℎ𝜁 𝜈𝑝,𝑛 |𝑒𝑝 | + |𝜂0 |, 𝑛 = 1, 2, … , 𝑎1 ,
authors considered a fractional model in terms of the fractal-fractional 𝑝=1
Atangana–Baleanu derivative for describing the spread of COVID- then
19 taking into account quarantine and isolation. Using the modified
predictor–corrector scheme, a new generalized fractional model was |𝑒𝑎1 | ≤ 𝐶|𝜂0 |, 𝑎1 = 1, 2, …
given by Erturk and Kumar in [10] for describing the dynamics of
where 𝐶 is a +𝑣𝑒 constant independent of 𝑎1 and ℎ.
COVID-19. In [28], this scheme is considered for solving a time de-
lay fractional COVID-19 SEIR epidemic model via Caputo fractional
derivatives. In [29], a SIR fractional epidemic model in terms of the Model structure in classical sense
Mittag-Leffler fractional derivative is considered. Another fractional
compartmental mathematical model for the spread of the COVID- We divide the total population into four compartments: 𝑆 for sus-
19 taking into account super-spreaders was given in [30] using the ceptible humans, 𝐸 for infected human in latent stage i.e. who are
Caputo derivative and supported by the infection data from Spain and infected but not yet become infectious and cannot pass the infection to
Portugal. The same Caputo–Fabrizio fractional derivative is examined other susceptible individuals, 𝐼 for infectious and symptomatic humans
in a model for the transmission of COVID-19 in Wuhan by employing and who are capable to transmit the infection to any susceptible
the Adams–Bashforth numerical scheme in [31]. individuals, and 𝑅 for recovered humans who are temporarily immune
After getting the high motivation and brief ideas of modelling from the infection. We add a last compartment namely 𝐷 to denote
approaches, dynamical behaviours and applications of the fractional the total number of individuals who dying in the studied country. 𝜓
derivatives from the above mentioned works, the given research paper is the transmission rate of infection from an infectious human to a
is structured as follows: In ‘Premilaries’, we provide some important susceptible human, and 𝑁(𝑡) is the total number of human at time 𝑡.
definitions and lemmas. The brief discussion of a new model structure Exposed individuals become infectious at a rate 𝜚. Infectious humans,
is given in ‘Model structure in classical sense’, where we first define after appropriate treatment move to the recovered class at a rate 𝜅.
the model in classical sense, in which we calculate the disease-free Recovered individuals can lose their immunity and become susceptible
equilibrium, endemic equilibrium and the basic reproductive number at a rate 𝜛. We denote the natural death rate of susceptible, exposed,
0 . In ‘Model structure in fractional sense’, we formulate the model infected and recovered individuals by 𝑑.
2
Table 1 For readability, let us set 𝐴1 = 𝛬(1−𝜈)+𝜛, 𝐴2 = 𝜛 +𝜈𝑟 +𝑑, 𝐴3 = 𝜚+𝑑 +𝑙,
Description of state variables of the SEIRS disease model (3).
𝐴4 = 𝜅 + 𝑑 + 𝑙 and 𝐴5 = 𝑑 + 𝜛. Thus, (5) becomes
State variable Description
𝑆 Number of susceptible individuals ⎧ 𝑑𝑠 = 𝐴1 − 𝐴2 𝑠 − 𝑒𝜛 − 𝑖𝜛 − 𝜓𝑠𝑖,
⎪ 𝑑𝑒
𝑑𝑡
𝐸 Number of exposed individuals ⎨ 𝑑𝑡 = 𝜓𝑠𝑖 − 𝐴3 𝑒, (6)
𝐼 Number of infectious individuals ⎪ 𝑑𝑖
𝑅 Number of recovered individuals ⎩ 𝑑𝑡 = 𝜚𝑒 − 𝐴4 𝑖.
𝐷 Number of death individuals
𝑁 Total Population The disease-free equilibrium (DFE)
The local stability is analysed to determine the disease-free equilib-

The above assumptions lead to the following non-linear system of rium (DFE):
five ordinary differential equations given by
𝑍̄ 𝐷𝐹 𝐸 = (𝑠, 𝑒, 𝑖) = (𝑠,
̄ 0, 0) (7)
𝑑𝑆 𝑆𝐼 𝑑𝑠
= 𝛬𝑁 − 𝛬𝜈𝑁 + 𝜛𝑅 − 𝜓 − 𝜈𝑟 𝑆 − 𝑑𝑆, (3a) Through substitution of (7) into = 0 of the system in (6), the DFE
𝑑𝑡 𝑁 𝑑𝑡
𝑑𝐸 𝑆𝐼 𝐴
in (7) is computed to generate 𝑠 = 𝐴1 or 𝑍̄ 𝐷𝐹 𝐸 = (𝑠,
𝐴
̄ 0, 0) = ( 𝐴1 , 0, 0).
=𝜓 − 𝜚𝐸 − 𝑑𝐸 − 𝑙𝐸, (3b)
𝑑𝑡 𝑁 𝐴
2 2
𝑑𝐼 At ( 𝐴1 , 0, 0), the Jacobian matrix 𝐽 (𝑋) is given as:

= 𝜚𝐸 − 𝜅𝐼 − 𝑑𝐼 − 𝑙𝐼, (3c) 2
𝑑𝑡 𝐴
𝑑𝑅 ⎛ −𝐴2 −𝜛 −𝜛 − 𝜓 𝐵1 ⎞
= 𝛬𝜈𝑁 + 𝜅𝐼 − 𝑑𝑅 − 𝜛𝑅 + 𝜈𝑟 𝑆, (3d) ⎜ 2 ⎟
𝑑𝑡 ̄ ̄
𝐽 (𝑍𝐷𝐹 𝐸 ) = ⎜ 0 −𝐴3
𝐴
𝜓 𝐴1 ⎟ (8)
𝑑𝐷 ⎜ 2
⎟
= 𝑑𝑆 + 𝑑𝐸 + 𝑑𝐼 + 𝑑𝑅 + 𝑙𝐸 + 𝑙𝐼. (3e) ⎝ 0 𝜚 −𝐴4 ⎠
𝑑𝑡
The description of state variables and parameters of the model are with eigenvalues 𝜆 which are solutions of the following equation
consigned in Tables 1 and 3, respectively. The total population size is
|𝐽̄(𝑍̄ 𝐷𝐹 𝐸 ) − 𝜆𝐼| = 0.
defined by 𝑆(𝑡) + 𝐸(𝑡) + 𝐼(𝑡) + 𝑅(𝑡) = 𝑁(𝑡). Then
The characteristic polynomial of the above Jacobian matrix can be
𝑑𝑁 𝑑𝑆 𝑑𝐸 𝑑𝐼 𝑑𝑅
= + + + . written as:
𝑑𝑡 𝑑𝑡 𝑑𝑡 𝑑𝑡 𝑑𝑡
𝐴
i.e using the linearity of the ordinary derivatives, we can define the 𝑝(𝜆) = 𝜆3 + (𝐴2 + 𝐴3 + 𝐴4 )𝜆2 + (𝐴2 𝐴3 + 𝐴2 𝐴4 + 𝐴3 𝐴4 − 𝜚𝜓 1 )𝜆
𝐴2
feasible region of the system as follows:
+ (𝐴2 𝐴3 𝐴4 − 𝜚𝜓𝐴1 ) = 0. (9)
𝑑(𝑆 + 𝐸 + 𝐼 + 𝑅)
= 𝛬𝑁 − 𝑑𝑁 − 𝑙𝐼 − 𝑙𝐸 ≤ 𝛬𝑁 − 𝑑𝑁, 𝐴1
𝑑𝑡 Let 𝑎1 = 𝐴2 + 𝐴3 + 𝐴4 , 𝑎2 = 𝐴2 𝐴3 + 𝐴2 𝐴4 + 𝐴3 𝐴4 − 𝜚𝜓 and 𝑎3 =
𝐴2
𝐴2 𝐴3 𝐴4 − 𝜚𝜓𝐴1 .
𝑑𝑁 Based on the Routh–Hurwitz criteria for a cubic polynomial 𝑝(𝜆), the
≤ 𝛬𝑁 − 𝑑𝑁,
𝑑𝑡 three conditions 𝑎1 > 0, 𝑎3 > 0, 𝑎1 𝑎2 > 𝑎3 must be satisfied by the DFE
𝑑𝑁 𝑍̄ 𝐷𝐹 𝐸 in (7) to be locally stable. So, 𝐴2 + 𝐴3 + 𝐴4 > 0 ⟹ 𝐴2 > 0, 𝐴3 > 0
≤ (𝛬 − 𝑑)𝑑𝑡,
𝑁 and 𝐴4 > 0 and
log 𝑁 ≤ (𝛬 − 𝑑)𝑡, 𝐴2 𝐴3 𝐴4
𝐴2 𝐴3 𝐴4 − 𝜚𝜓𝐴1 > 0 ⟹ > 1. (10)
𝜚𝜓𝐴1
So the population 𝑁 is given as:
𝐴
From 𝑎1 𝑎2 = (𝐴2 + 𝐴3 + 𝐴4 )(𝐴2 𝐴3 + 𝐴2 𝐴4 + 𝐴3 𝐴4 − 𝜚𝜓 𝐴1 ), we can write
𝑁 ≤ 𝑒(𝛬−𝑑)𝑡 , the relation 𝑎1 𝑎2 > 𝑎3 as
2
with time-varying population 𝑁(𝑡). 𝜓𝐴1

𝐴22 𝐴3 + 𝐴22 𝐴4 + 2𝐴2 𝐴3 𝐴4 + 𝐴23 𝐴2 + 𝐴23 𝐴4 + 𝐴2 𝐴24 + 𝐴3 𝐴24 > 𝜚 (𝐴3 + 𝐴4 ).
So the following set 𝐴2
(11)
𝛺 = {(𝑆, 𝐸, 𝐼, 𝑅) ∈ 4+ ∶ 𝑆 + 𝐸 + 𝐼 + 𝑅 ≤ 𝑒(𝛬−𝑑)𝑡 }
After dividing by 𝐴3 𝐴4 , (11) is simplified as:
is positively invariant for the model system (3). ( 2 )
For further simulations in an easy description, let 𝑠 = 𝑆
, 𝑒 = 𝐸
, 𝐴2 𝐴22 𝐴 𝐴 𝐴 𝐴 𝜓𝐴1
𝑁 𝑁 + + 2𝐴2 + 2 3 + 2 4 + (𝐴3 + 𝐴4 ) > 𝜚 (𝐴 + 𝐴4 )
𝑖 = 𝑁𝐼 , 𝑟 = 𝑁
𝑅
, then, 𝑠 + 𝑒 + 𝑖 + 𝑟 = 1. 𝐴4 𝐴3 𝐴4 𝐴3 𝐴2 𝐴3 𝐴4 3
Using this notation, the system (3) becomes (12)

𝑑𝑠 where
= 𝛬 − 𝛬𝜈 + 𝜛𝑟 − 𝜓𝑠𝑖 − 𝜈𝑟 𝑠 − 𝑑𝑠, (4a)
𝑑𝑡 𝜓𝐴1
𝑑𝑒 0 = 𝜚 ≤ 1. (13)
= 𝜓𝑠𝑖 − 𝜚𝑒 − 𝑑𝑒 − 𝑙𝑒, (4b) 𝐴2 𝐴3 𝐴4
𝑑𝑡
𝑑𝑖 As a result of the Routh–Hurwitz criteria, all the eigenvalues 𝜆 in the
= 𝜚𝑒 − 𝜅𝑖 − 𝑑𝑖 − 𝑙𝑖, (4c)
𝑑𝑡 polynomial (9) have negative real part. Then we can conclude that the
𝑑𝑟
= 𝛬𝜈 + 𝜅𝑖 − 𝑑𝑟 − 𝜛𝑟 + 𝜈𝑟 𝑠. (4d) DFE 𝑍̄ 𝐷𝐹 𝐸 in (7) is locally stable with (10). Thus we claim the following
𝑑𝑡
result.
Using the fact that 𝑟 = 1 − 𝑠 − 𝑒 − 𝑖, the above system can be written as
Lemma 3. The disease-free-equilibrium of the system (6) is locally asymp-
⎧ 𝑑𝑠 = 𝛬(1 − 𝜈) + 𝜛 − (𝜛 + 𝜈𝑟 + 𝑑)𝑠 − 𝑒𝜛 − 𝑖𝜛 − 𝜓𝑠𝑖,
⎪ 𝑑𝑒
𝑑𝑡 totically stable whenever the basic reproduction number 0 is less than
⎨ 𝑑𝑡 = 𝜓𝑠𝑖 − (𝜚 + 𝑑 + 𝑙)𝑒, (5) unity.
⎪ 𝑑𝑖
⎩ 𝑑𝑡 = 𝜚𝑒 − (𝜅 + 𝑑 + 𝑙)𝑖.
3
Table 2 which only makes physical significance if

Different sets of parameter values.
Set 𝜓 𝜈𝑟 0 𝜓𝜚𝐴1 − 𝐴2 𝐴3 𝐴4 > 0
1 0.542 0.05 1.3457 𝜓𝜚𝐴1
0.1 1.1214 0 = >1 (21)
0.5 0.4806
𝐴2 𝐴3 𝐴4
0.8 0.3364 Number of researchers have described the use of basic reproduction
2 0.315 0.05 0.7821 number 0 in analysing the stability of the endemic equilibrium states.
0.1 0.6518 According to this, when 0 > 1 then the disease free equilibrium is
0.5 0.2793
unstable and locally asymptotically stable when 0 < 0 < 1.
0.8 0.1955
So if 0 ≤ 1 (13) then infection disease dies out eventually.
3 0.271 0.05 0.6728
Conversely if 0 > 1 (21) then the endemic equilibrium is stable and
0.1 0.5607
0.5 0.2403 disease free equilibrium is unstable.
0.8 0.1682 The Jacobian matrix for EE can be written as:
4 0.192 0.05 0.4768 ⎛ −𝜓 𝑖̄ − 𝐴2 −𝜛 𝜛 − 𝜓 𝑠̄ ⎞
0.1 0.3973 𝐽̄(𝑍̄ 𝐸𝐸 ) = ⎜ 𝜓 𝑖̄ −𝐴3 𝜓 𝑠̄ ⎟ (22)
0.5 0.1703 ⎜ ⎟
⎝ 0 𝜚 −𝐴4 ⎠
0.8 0.1192
and
|𝐽̄(𝑍̄ 𝐸𝐸 ) − 𝜆𝐼| = 0. (23)

Endemic equilibrium (EE)
Similarly we calculated the 𝑝(𝜆) for the above equation and as a
consequence of the Routh–Hurwitz criteria, all the eigenvalues 𝜆 in the
𝑍̄ 𝐸𝐸 = (𝑠, 𝑒, 𝑖) = (𝑠, ̄ 𝑖̄)
̄ 𝑒, (14) cubic polynomial 𝑝(𝜆) have negative real parts and we can conclude
that the 𝑍̄ 𝐸𝐸 in (20) is locally stable with (21).
To find the endemic equilibrium points, we assume that the system is
time independent such that using the properties of proposed derivative Model structure in fractional sense
we have:
Number of research articles have been proposed by researchers to
⎧ 𝑑𝑠 = 𝐴1 − 𝐴2 𝑠 − 𝑒𝜛 − 𝑖𝜛 − 𝜓𝑠𝑖,
⎪ 𝑑𝑒
𝑑𝑡 study the dynamics of COVID-19 via fractional derivatives. In [35],
⎨ 𝑑𝑡 = 𝜓𝑠𝑖 − 𝐴3 𝑒, (15) solution of a non-linear COVID-19 model via Caputo fractional deriva-
⎪ 𝑑𝑖
⎩ 𝑑𝑡 = 𝜚𝑒 − 𝐴4 𝑖. tive by the application of q-homotopy analysis transform method has
been derived. In [10], authors solved a fractional COVID-19 model by
From the last two equations, we obtain
a recent Predictor–Corrector algorithm. Kumar et al. [28], defined a
𝜚 time-delay non-linear model of COVID-19 in the sense of Caputo type
𝑖= 𝑒 (16)
𝐴4 non-integer order operator. In [36], the authors studied the dynamics
𝐴 𝐴 of COVID-19 in Cameroon by a realistic data with the proposal of a
𝑠 = 3 4. (17)
𝜓𝜚 new non-linear model. Also in [37], researchers derived the solution of
Now replacing these values into the first equation of the system, we the model with optimal control analysis in Atangana–Baleanu fractional
obtain derivative sense. So after getting a strong motivation from these works,
the re-formulation of the proposed integer order model (3) in the
𝐴1 − 𝜛𝑒 − 𝜛𝑖 − 𝜓𝑠𝑖 − 𝐴2 𝑠 = 0 Atangana–Baleanu fractional derivative sense is defined as follows:
⎧𝐴𝐵𝐶 𝜁 𝑆(𝑡) = 𝛬𝑁 − 𝛬𝜈𝑁 + 𝜛𝑅 − 𝜓 𝑆𝐼 − 𝜈 𝑆 − 𝑑𝑆,
𝑠(𝜓𝑖 + 𝐴2 ) = 𝐴1 − 𝜛𝑒 − 𝜛𝑖 ⎪0 𝑡 𝑁 𝑟
⎪𝐴𝐵𝐶 𝜁𝑡 𝐸(𝑡) = 𝜓 𝑆𝐼 − 𝜚𝐸 − 𝑑𝐸 − 𝑙𝐸,
𝐴3 𝐴4 ⎪𝐴𝐵𝐶 𝜁
0 𝑁
(𝜓𝑖 + 𝐴2 ) = 𝐴1 − 𝜛𝑒 − 𝜛𝑖 ⎨0 𝑡 𝐼(𝑡) = 𝜚𝐸 − 𝜅𝐼 − 𝑑𝐼 − 𝑙𝐼, (24)
𝜓𝜚
⎪𝐴𝐵𝐶 𝜁
𝐴3 𝐴4 𝐴 𝐴 𝐴 ⎪0 𝑡 𝑅(𝑡) = 𝛬𝜈𝑁 + 𝜅𝐼 − 𝑑𝑅 − 𝜛𝑅 + 𝜈𝑟 𝑆,
𝑖( + 𝜛) = 𝐴1 − 𝜛𝑒 − 2 3 4 ⎪𝐴𝐵𝐶 𝜁 𝐷(𝑡) = 𝑑𝑆 + 𝑑𝐸 + 𝑑𝐼 + 𝑑𝑅 + 𝑙𝐸 + 𝑙𝐼.
𝜚 𝜓𝜚 ⎩0 𝑡
[ ]
𝜚𝑒 𝐴3 𝐴4 𝐴 𝐴 𝐴 Here, 𝐴𝐵𝐶 𝜁𝑡 is the Atangana–Baleanu non-integer order derivative
+ 𝜛 = 𝐴1 − 𝜛𝑒 − 2 3 4 0
𝐴4 𝜚 𝜓𝜚 operator of order 𝜁.
[ ]
𝜛𝜚 𝐴 𝐴 𝐴
𝑒 𝐴3 + + 𝜛 = 𝐴1 − 2 3 4 Existence of solution
𝐴4 𝜓𝜚
[ ] After defining any model in fractional sense, the first major step
𝐴3 𝐴4 + 𝜛𝜚 + 𝜛𝐴4 𝜓𝜚𝐴1 − 𝐴2 𝐴3 𝐴4 always becomes to prove the existence of the solution. In this section,
𝑒 = (18)
𝐴4 𝜓𝜚 we prove the existence and uniqueness of solution for the proposed non-
Substituting this value (18) in (16) linear model (24). Here first we write the above fractional model in a
short form by following the generality. The compact form of the model
𝜓𝜚𝐴1 − 𝐴2 𝐴3 𝐴4 (24) is given as follows:
𝑖= (19)
𝜓(𝐴3 𝐴4 + 𝜛𝜚 + 𝜛𝐴4 )
⎧𝐴𝐵𝐶 𝐷𝜁 𝑆(𝑡) =  (𝑡, 𝑆(𝑡)),
we get ⎪ 𝑡 1
( ⎪𝐴𝐵𝐶 𝐷𝑡𝜁 𝐸(𝑡) = 2 (𝑡, 𝐸(𝑡)),
𝐴3 𝐴4 𝐴4 ⎪𝐴𝐵𝐶 𝜁
𝑍̄ 𝐸𝐸 = (𝑠, ̄ 𝑖̄) =
̄ 𝑒, , ⎨ 𝐷𝑡 𝐼(𝑡) = 3 (𝑡, 𝐼(𝑡)), (25)
𝜓𝜚 (𝐴3 𝐴4 + 𝜛𝜚 + 𝜛𝐴4 )
) ⎪𝐴𝐵𝐶 𝜁
𝜓𝜚𝐴1 − 𝐴2 𝐴3 𝐴4 𝜓𝜚𝐴1 − 𝐴2 𝐴3 𝐴4 ⎪ 𝐷𝑡 𝑅(𝑡) = 4 (𝑡, 𝑅(𝑡)),
× , (20) ⎪𝐴𝐵𝐶 𝐷𝜁 𝐷(𝑡) =  (𝑡, 𝐷(𝑡)).
𝜓𝜚 𝜓(𝐴3 𝐴4 + 𝜛𝜚 + 𝜛𝐴4 ) ⎩ 𝑡 5
4
Table 3
Description and values of model parameters.
Parameter Description Values Source
𝛬 Rate of birth 0 Fitted
𝜈 Newborns vaccination proportion 0 Fitted
𝜈𝑟 Rate of vaccination of susceptible individuals 0.05, 0.1, 0.5, 0.8 Fitted
𝜛 Rate of transmission from recovered to susceptible class 0.2 [34]
𝜓 Rate of transmission from susceptible to exposed 0.542, 0.315, 0.271, 0.192 [34]
𝜚 Rate of transmission from exposed to infected 0.1924 [34]
𝜅 Recovery rate of infected individuals 0.095 [34]
𝑑 Natural death rate or deaths by any other disease 0 Fitted
𝑙 Death rate due to COVID-19 0.11 [34]
𝑆(0) Initial population of S 47,431,256 [34]
𝐸(0) Initial population of E 100 [34]
𝐼(0) Initial population of I 20 [34]
𝑅(0) Initial population of R 2 [34]
𝐷(0) Initial population of D 1 [34]
where 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 and 5 are the contraction for 𝑆, 𝐸, 𝐼, 𝑅 and 𝐷 where ℧(𝑡) = {𝑆(𝑡), 𝐸(𝑡), 𝐼(𝑡), 𝑅(𝑡), 𝐷(𝑡)}, ℧0 (𝑡) = {𝑆0 , 𝐸0 , 𝐼0 , 𝑅0 , 𝐷0 }
respectively. and 𝛥(𝑡, ℧(𝑡)) = {1 (𝑡, 𝑆(𝑡)), 2 (𝑡, 𝐸(𝑡)), 3 (𝑡, 𝐼(𝑡)), 4 (𝑡, 𝑅(𝑡)), 5 (𝑡, 𝐷(𝑡))}.
Now, we are following the well-known Picard–Lindelof technique to Next we assume the solution of the given fractional non-linear model
fulfil the existence of unique solution requirements. Now, by applying being bounded within a time period, ‖℧(𝑡)‖∞ ≤ max{𝑎1 , 𝑎2 , 𝑎3 , 𝑎4 , 𝑎5 },
the AB integral operator, the given system (25), becomes the following
𝑡
Volterra type integral system of order 0 < 𝜁 < 1. 𝜁
‖℧(𝑡) − ℧0 (𝑡)‖ = ‖𝛥(𝑡, ℧(𝑡))(1 − 𝜁) + (𝑡 − 𝑠)𝜁−1 𝛥(𝑠, ℧(𝑠))𝑑𝑠‖
𝜁 𝑡 𝛤 (𝜁) ∫0
𝑆(𝑡) − 𝑆(0) = (1 − 𝜁)1 (𝑡, 𝑆) + (𝑡 − 𝑠)𝜚−1 1 (𝜒, 𝑆)𝑑𝜒, 𝜁 𝑡
𝛤 (𝜁) ∫0 ≤ ‖𝛥(𝑡, ℧(𝑡))‖(1 − 𝜁) + ‖(𝑡 − 𝑠)𝜁−1 𝛥(𝑠, ℧(𝑠))‖𝑑𝑠
𝑡 𝛤 (𝜁) ∫0
𝐸(𝑡) − 𝐸(0) = (1 − 𝜁)2 (𝑡, 𝐸) +
𝜁
(𝑡 − 𝑠)𝜁−1 2 (𝜒, 𝐸)𝑑𝜒, ( )
∫
𝛤 (𝜁) 0 𝜁 𝑏𝜁
≤ (1 − 𝜁) + max{1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 } < 𝑏𝑄 ≤ 𝑎
𝑡 𝛤 (𝜁)
𝜁
𝐼(𝑡) − 𝐼(0) = (1 − 𝜁)3 (𝑡, 𝐼) + (𝑡 − 𝑠)𝜁−1 3 (𝜒, 𝐼)𝑑𝜒, (26) = max{𝑎1 , 𝑎2 , 𝑎3 , 𝑎4 , 𝑎5 },
𝛤 (𝜁) ∫0
𝑡
𝜁
𝑅(𝑡) − 𝑅(0) = (1 − 𝜁)4 (𝑡, 𝑅) + (𝑡 − 𝑠)𝜁−1 4 (𝜒, 𝑅)𝑑𝜒, where we demand that 𝑏 < 𝑄𝑎 . Now by the application of fixed point
𝛤 (𝜁) ∫0
𝑡 theorem pertaining to Banach space along with the metric, we get
𝜁
𝐷(𝑡) − 𝐷(0) = (1 − 𝜁)5 (𝑡, 𝐷) + (𝑡 − 𝑠)𝜁−1 5 (𝜒, 𝐷)𝑑𝜒. ‖𝜉℧1 − 𝜉℧2 ‖∞ = sup𝑡→𝐵 |℧1 − ℧2 |.
∫
𝛤 (𝜁) 0
Now we have,
Now, we get the subsequent iterative algorithm
𝑡 ‖𝜉℧1 − 𝜉℧2 ‖
𝜁
𝑆𝑛+1 (𝑡) = (1 − 𝜁)1 (𝑡, 𝑆𝑛 ) + (𝑡 − 𝑠)𝜁−1 1 (𝜒, 𝑆𝑛 )𝑑𝜒, ‖
𝛤 (𝜁) ∫0 = ‖{𝛥(𝑡, ℧1 (𝑡)) − 𝛥(𝑡, ℧2 (𝑡))}(1 − 𝜁)
‖
𝑡 𝑡
𝜁 𝜁 ‖
𝐸𝑛+1 (𝑡) = (1 − 𝜁)2 (𝑡, 𝐸𝑛 ) + (𝑡 − 𝑠)𝜁−1 2 (𝜒, 𝐸𝑛 )𝑑𝜒, + (𝑡 − 𝑠)𝜁−1 {𝛥(𝑠, ℧1 (𝑠)) − 𝛥(𝑠, ℧2 (𝑠))}𝑑𝑠‖
𝛤 (𝜁) ∫0 𝛤 (𝜁) ∫0 ‖
𝑡
𝜁 ≤ ‖𝛥(𝑡, ℧1 (𝑡)) − 𝛥(𝑡, ℧2 (𝑡))‖(1 − 𝜁)
𝐼𝑛+1 (𝑡) = (1 − 𝜁)3 (𝑡, 𝐼𝑛 ) + (𝑡 − 𝑠)𝜁−1 3 (𝜒, 𝐼𝑛 )𝑑𝜒, (27)
∫
𝛤 (𝜁) 0 𝑡
𝜁 (29)
𝜁 𝑡 + (𝑡 − 𝑠)𝜁−1 ‖𝛥(𝑠, ℧1 (𝑠)) − 𝛥(𝑠, ℧2 (𝑠))‖𝑑𝑠
𝑅𝑛+1 (𝑡) = (1 − 𝜁)4 (𝑡, 𝑅𝑛 ) + (𝑡 − 𝑠)𝜁−1 4 (𝜒, 𝑅𝑛 )𝑑𝜒, ∫
𝛤 (𝜁) 0
𝛤 (𝜁) ∫0 𝑡
𝜁𝛽
𝜁 𝑡 ≤ (1 − 𝜁)𝛽‖℧1 (𝑡) − ℧2 (𝑡)‖ + (𝑡 − 𝑠)𝜁−1 ‖℧1 (𝑠) − ℧2 (𝑠)‖𝑑𝑠
𝐷𝑛+1 (𝑡) = (1 − 𝜁)5 (𝑡, 𝐷𝑛 ) + (𝑡 − 𝑠)𝜁−1 5 (𝜒, 𝐷𝑛 )𝑑𝜒. 𝛤 (𝜁) ∫0
𝛤 (𝜁) ∫0
𝜁 𝛽𝑏𝜁
Here we assume that we can get the exact solution by taking the limit ≤ {(1 − 𝜁)𝛽 + }‖℧1 (𝑡) − ℧2 (𝑡)‖
𝛤 (𝜁)
as 𝑛 tends to infinity. ≤ 𝜙𝛽‖℧1 (𝑡) − ℧2 (𝑡)‖,
Theorem 1. For ABC sense we discuss the existence and uniqueness with 𝛽 < 1. Since 𝜙 is a contraction, we have 𝜙𝛽 < 1, hence the given
analysis of the given model by using the Picard–Lindelof scheme. operator 𝜉 is also a contraction. Therefore, the given fractional ABC
model (24) has a unique set of solution. □
Proof. Let 1 = sup𝐶[𝑐,𝑎 ] ‖1 (𝑡, 𝑆)‖, 2 = sup𝐶[𝑐,𝑎 ] ‖2 (𝑡, 𝐸)‖, 3 =
1 2
sup𝐶[𝑐,𝑎 ] ‖3 (𝑡, 𝐼)‖, 4 = sup𝐶[𝑐,𝑎 ] ‖4 (𝑡, 𝑅)‖, 5 = sup𝐶[𝑐,𝑎 ] ‖5 (𝑡, 𝐷)‖,
3 4 5
where
Derivation of solution
𝐶𝛿,𝑘1 = |𝑡 − 𝛿, 𝑡 + 𝛿| × [𝑆 − 𝑎1 , 𝑆 + 𝑎1 ] = 𝛿1 × 𝐷1 ,
𝐶𝛿,𝑘2 = |𝑡 − 𝛿, 𝑡 + 𝛿| × [𝐸 − 𝑎2 , 𝐸 + 𝑎2 ] = 𝛿1 × 𝐷2 ,
Since last few decades, many computational methods have been
𝐶𝛿,𝑘3 = |𝑡 − 𝛿, 𝑡 + 𝛿| × [𝐼 − 𝑎3 , 𝐼 + 𝑎3 ] = 𝛿1 × 𝐷3 , (28)
investigated for solving different dynamical systems or real world
𝐶𝛿,𝑘4 = |𝑡 − 𝛿, 𝑡 + 𝛿| × [𝑅 − 𝑎4 , 𝑅 + 𝑎4 ] = 𝛿1 × 𝐷4 ,
phenomena. In these numerical methods, Predictor–Corrector is one of
𝐶𝛿,𝑘5 = |𝑡 − 𝛿, 𝑡 + 𝛿| × [𝐷 − 𝑎5 , 𝐷 + 𝑎5 ] = 𝛿1 × 𝐷5 , the very famous and effective methods. This method has been derived
We consider the Picard operator 𝜉 ∶ 𝐶(𝛿1 , 𝐷1 , 𝐷2 , 𝐷3 , 𝐷4 , 𝐷5 ) → for mostly all fractional order derivatives. Here we apply this method
𝐶(𝛿1 , 𝐷1 , 𝐷2 , 𝐷3 , 𝐷4 , 𝐷5 ), defined as follows: in Atangana–Baleanu sense for finding the solution of the given model.
𝜁 𝑡 The complete description of this method form is given in [38]. Here
𝜉℧(𝑡) = ℧0 (𝑡) + 𝛥(𝑡, ℧(𝑡))(1 − 𝜁) + (𝑡 − 𝑠)𝜁−1 𝛥(𝑠, ℧(𝑠))𝑑𝑠, we derive the solution of the proposed fractional model by assuming
𝛤 (𝜁) ∫0
5
Fig. 1. Behaviour of the given fractional model for vaccine rate 𝜈𝑟 = 0.05 and transmission rate 𝜓 = 0.542.
℧(𝑡) = {𝑆(𝑡), 𝐸(𝑡), 𝐼(𝑡), 𝑅(𝑡), 𝐷(𝑡)}, ℧0 (𝑡) = {𝑆0 , 𝐸0 , 𝐼0 , 𝑅0 , 𝐷0 }. Let us The corresponding fractional Volterra integral equation is given
consider by:
{ 𝐴𝐵𝐶 𝐷𝜁 ℧(𝑡) 𝑡𝑖+1

𝑡 = (𝑡, ℧(𝑡)), 0 ≤ 𝑡 ≤ 𝑇, 𝜁
(30) ℧(𝑡) = ℧0 + (1 − 𝜁)(𝑡𝑖+1 , ℧𝑖+1 ) + (𝑡𝑖+1 − 𝑠)𝜁−1 (𝑠, ℧(𝑠))𝑑𝑠. (31)
℧(0) = ℧0 . 𝛤 (𝜁) ∫0
6
So following the method mentioned in [38] for 𝜁 ∈ [0, 1], 0 ≤ 𝑡 ≤ 𝑇 and where
setting ℎ = 𝑇 ∕𝑁 and 𝑡𝑛 = 𝑛ℎ, for 𝑛 = 0, 1, 2, … , 𝑁 ∈ 𝑍 + , the Corrector ⎧ 𝑖𝜁+1 − (𝑖 − 𝜁)(𝑖 + 1)𝜁 𝑖𝑓 𝑗 = 0,
formula of the projected problem is ⎪
𝑎𝑖+1,𝑗 = ⎨ (𝑖 − 𝑗 + 2)𝜁+1 + (𝑖 − 𝑗)𝜁+1 − 2(𝑖 − 𝑗 + 1)𝜁+1 𝑖𝑓 1 ≤ 𝑗 ≤ 𝑖,
( ) ⎪ 1, 𝑗 = 𝑖 + 1.
𝜁 ℎ𝜁 ∑𝑖 ⎩
℧𝑖+1 = ℧0 + 𝑎𝑖+1,𝑖+1 (𝑡𝑖+1 , ℧𝑃𝑖+1 ) + 𝑎𝑖+1,𝑗 (𝑡𝑗 , ℧𝑗 ) (32)
𝛤 (𝜁 + 2) 𝑗=0
(33)
7
8
9
and 𝜁 ℎ𝜁 𝑀𝑎 𝑖,0
where 𝜁0 = max0≤𝑖≤𝑁 {|℧̃0 | + |℧̃0 |}. Also, from Eq.(3.18)
(1 − 𝜁)𝛤 (𝜁 + 2) 𝛤 (𝜁 + 2)
𝑎𝑖+1,𝑖+1 =1+ . in [33] we write
𝜁 ℎ𝜁
ℎ𝜁 𝑀 ∑
𝑖
The predictor formula is derived as |℧
̃ 𝑃 | ≤ 𝜂0 + 𝑏 |℧
̃ |, (41)
𝑖+1 𝛤 (𝜁) 𝑗=1 𝑗,𝑖+1 𝑗
ℎ𝜁 ∑
𝑖
℧𝑃𝑖+1 = ℧0 + 𝑏𝑖+1,𝑗 (𝑡𝑗 , ℧𝑗 ), (34) ℎ𝜁 𝑀𝑏𝑛,0
𝛤 (𝜁) 𝑗=0
̃ 0| +
where 𝜂0 = max0≤𝑖≤𝑁 {|℧ |℧ ̃ 𝑃 | from
̃ 0 |}. Substituting |℧
𝛤 (𝜁) 𝑖+1
where Eq. (41) into Eq. (40) results

∑𝑖 ( )
⎧ 𝜁 ℎ𝜁 𝑀𝑎𝑖+1,𝑖+1 𝑏𝑖+1,𝑗
𝜁 𝜁
⎪ −(𝑖 − 𝑗) + (𝑖 − 𝑗 + 1) , 𝑗 = 0, … , 𝑖 − 1, ̃ 𝑖+1 | ≤ 𝛾0 + 𝜁 ℎ 𝑀
|℧ 𝑎𝑖+1,𝑗 + |℧
̃ 𝑗|
𝑏𝑖+1,𝑗 =⎨ (1 − 𝜁)𝛤 (𝜁) (35) 𝛤 (𝜁 + 2) 𝑗=1 𝛤 (𝜁)
⎪ 1+ ℎ𝜁
, 𝑗 = 𝑖. (42)
⎩ 𝜁 ℎ𝜁 𝑀𝐶𝜁,2 ∑𝑖
≤ 𝛾0 + (𝑖 + 1 − 𝑗)𝜁−1 |℧̃𝑗 |,
Thus the corrector formulae for the proposed model (24) are 𝛤 (𝜁 + 2) 𝑗=1
( ) 𝜁 ℎ𝜁 𝑀𝑎𝑖+1,𝑖+1
𝜁 ℎ𝜁 ∑ 𝑖
where 𝛾0 = max{𝜁0 + 𝜂0 }. 𝐶𝜁,2 is a positive constant which
𝑃
𝑆𝑖+1 = 𝑆0 + (𝑎𝑖+1,𝑖+1 )1 (𝑡𝑖+1 , 𝑆𝑖+1 )+ (𝑎𝑖+1,𝑗 )1 (𝑡𝑖 , 𝑆𝑗 ) , 𝛤 (𝜁 + 2)
𝛤 (𝜁 + 2) 𝑗=0 only depends on 𝜁 (see Lemma 1) and ℎ is assumed to be small enough.
( ) Applying Lemma 2 we conclude |℧ ̃ 𝑖+1 | ≤ 𝐶𝛾0 , which completes the
𝜁 ℎ𝜁 ∑ 𝑖
𝑃
𝐸𝑖+1 = 𝐸0 + (𝑎𝑖+1,𝑖+1 )2 (𝑡𝑖+1 , 𝐸𝑖+1 )+ (𝑎𝑖+1,𝑗 )2 (𝑡𝑖 , 𝐸𝑗 ) , proof.
𝛤 (𝜁 + 2) 𝑗=0
( )
𝜁 ℎ𝜁 ∑𝑖
𝑃 Graphical simulations
𝐼𝑖+1 = 𝐼0 + (𝑎𝑖+1,𝑖+1 )3 (𝑡𝑖+1 , 𝐼𝑖+1 )+ (𝑎𝑖+1,𝑗 )3 (𝑡𝑖 , 𝐼𝑗 ) ,
𝛤 (𝜁 + 2) 𝑗=0
( ) In this section, we perform the graphical simulation by using the
𝜁ℎ 𝜁 ∑ 𝑖
𝑅𝑖+1 = 𝑅0 + (𝑎𝑖+1,𝑖+1 )4 (𝑡𝑖+1 , 𝑅𝑃𝑖+1 ) + (𝑎𝑖+1,𝑗 )4 (𝑡𝑖 , 𝑅𝑗 ) , numerical values based on real data from Spain [34]. We have also
𝛤 (𝜁 + 2) 𝑗=0 fitted some parameter values for studying the role of vaccine clearly.
( )
𝜁ℎ 𝜁 ∑ 𝑖
Because to the date, vaccines have just come to the world and they
𝑃
𝐷𝑖+1 = 𝐷0 + (𝑎𝑖+1,𝑖+1 )5 (𝑡𝑖+1 , 𝐷𝑖+1 )+ (𝑎𝑖+1,𝑗 )5 (𝑡𝑖 , 𝐷𝑗 ) , are not present in the enough amount yet. In that case, we fixed the
𝛤 (𝜁 + 2) 𝑗=0
population size by taking birth rate 𝛬 and natural death rate 𝑑 equal
(36) to zero. If birth rate is zero then the value of newborns vaccination
proportion is automatically zero. For justifying the vaccine availability
where
in the given fixed population size, we used four different values of
ℎ𝜁 ∑
𝑖
𝑃
vaccine rate 𝜈𝑟 = 0.05, 0.1, 0.5, 0.8. Also, we have taken four different
𝑆𝑖+1 = 𝑆0 + 𝑏  (𝑡 , 𝑆 ),
𝛤 (𝜁) 𝑗=0 𝑖+1,𝑗 1 𝑗 𝑗 values of transmission rate 𝜓 = 0.542, 0.315, 0.271, 0.192 which are
based on real COVID-19 cases in Spain from February to September.
ℎ𝜁 ∑
𝑖
𝑃
𝐸𝑖+1 = 𝐸0 + 𝑏  (𝑡 , 𝐸 ), We calculated the value of basic reproductive number 0 for the all
𝛤 (𝜁) 𝑗=0 𝑖+1,𝑗 2 𝑗 𝑗 given sets of parameters specified in Table 2.
From Fig. 1, we show the effect of vaccine rate 𝜈𝑟 = 0.05 on the given
ℎ𝜁 ∑
𝑖
𝑃 model classes at different fractional order values 𝜁 = 1, 0.95, 0.90, 0.85.
𝐼𝑖+1 = 𝐼0 + 𝑏  (𝑡 , 𝐼 ), (37)
𝛤 (𝜁) 𝑗=0 𝑖+1,𝑗 3 𝑗 𝑗 In that case, we choose the transmission rate 𝜓 = 0.542. We exemplified
that when the order of proposed fractional derivative decreases then
ℎ𝜁 ∑
𝑖
𝑅𝑃𝑖+1 = 𝑅0 + 𝑏  (𝑡 , 𝑅 ), the population of exposed 𝐸(𝑡) and infected 𝐼(𝑡) individuals decrease.
𝛤 (𝜁) 𝑗=0 𝑖+1,𝑗 4 𝑗 𝑗
Deaths are also plotted in sub- Fig. 1(e). In this case, the value of
ℎ𝜁 ∑
𝑖
𝑃
basic reproductive number is 0 = 1.3457 > 1 which is the case of
𝐷𝑖+1 = 𝐷0 + 𝑏  (𝑡 , 𝐷 ).
𝛤 (𝜁) 𝑗=0 𝑖+1,𝑗 5 𝑗 𝑗 endemic equilibrium. As we have already mentioned, our target is to
show the role of availability of vaccine at the given transmission rate
of COVID-19. In order to complete this target, we change the value of
0.0.1. Stability analysis vaccine rate at the fixed value of transmission rate 𝜓. In Fig. 2, we used
𝜈𝑟 = 0.1 and performed the graphs at various fractional order values 𝜁.
Theorem 2. The numerical method (36)–(37) is conditionally stable. We found that in this case, endemic equilibrium condition again exists
but when we set 𝜈𝑟 = 0.5 in the company of Fig. 3, then the condition
Proof. Let ℧̃0 , ℧̃𝑗 (𝑗 = 0, … , 𝑖 + 1) and ℧̃ 𝑃 (𝑖 = 0, … , 𝑁 − 1) be
𝑖+1 of endemic equilibrium changed to disease free equilibrium with the
perturbations of ℧0 , ℧𝑗 𝑎𝑛𝑑 ℧𝑃𝑖+1 , respectively. Then, the following numerical value of basic reproductive number 0 = 0.4806 < 1. When
perturbation equations are obtained by using Eqs. (36) and (37) we set 𝜈𝑟 = 0.8 then the value of 0 = 0.3364 which is the best optimal
control case for the population at the transmission rate 𝜓 = 0.542. This
𝜁 ∑ 𝑖
̃ 𝑃 = ℧̃0 + ℎ
℧ 𝑏 ((𝑡𝑗 , ℧𝑗 + ℧̃𝑗 ) − (𝑡𝑗 , ℧𝑗 )), (38) case is exemplified graphically in Fig. 4.
𝑖+1 𝛤 (𝜁) 𝑗=0 𝑖+1,𝑗 Now we choose the value of transmission rate 𝜓 = 0.315. From
𝜁
(
̃ 𝑖+1 = ℧̃0 + 𝜁 ℎ Fig. 5, we show the effect of vaccine rate 𝜈𝑟 = 0.05 on the given model
℧ 𝑎𝑖+1,𝑖+1 ((𝑡𝑖+1 , ℧𝑃𝑖+1 + ℧̃ 𝑃 ) − (𝑡𝑖+1 , ℧𝑃 ))
𝑖+1 𝑖+1
𝛤 (𝜁 + 2) classes at different fractional order values 𝜁 = 1, 0.95, 0.90, 0.85. We
) (39) exemplified that when the order of proposed fractional derivative de-
∑𝑖
+ 𝑎𝑖+1,𝑗 ((𝑡𝑗 , ℧𝑗 + ℧̃ 𝑗 ) − (𝑡𝑗 , ℧𝑗 )) , creases then the population of exposed 𝐸(𝑡) and infected 𝐼(𝑡) individuals
𝑗=0 went to decrease at a later time period respectively. Deaths are also
Using the Lipschitz condition, we obtain plotted in sub- Fig. 5(e). In this case, the value of basic reproductive
( ) number is 0 = 0.7821 < 1 which is the case of disease-free equilibrium.
𝜁 ∑𝑖
̃ 𝑖+1 | ≤ 𝜁0 + 𝜁 ℎ 𝑀 𝑎𝑖+1,𝑖+1 |℧
|℧ ̃𝑃 |+ 𝑎 𝑗,𝑖+1 |℧̃ 𝑗 | , (40)
Also at this transmission rate, the disease-free equilibrium case exists
𝛤 (𝜁 + 2) 𝑖+1
𝑗=1
for every values of vaccine rate. In the group of Figs. 6, 7 to 8, we used
10
several values of 𝜈𝑟 and performed the graphs at various fractional order Similarly, when we choose the value of transmission rate 𝜓 = 0.271
values 𝜁. We found that in all the cases, infection is under control and (see Figs. 9, 10, 11, 12) then the disease-free conditions again exist
population can easily recover from this virus at the fixed transmission for each values of vaccine rate 𝜈𝑟 . From Fig. 9, we show the effects of
rate. vaccine rate 𝜈𝑟 = 0.05 on the given model classes at different fractional
11
order values 𝜁 = 1, 0.95, 0.90, 0.85. Again we evaluated that when the later time period respectively. Deaths are also plotted in sub- Figs. 9(e)–
order of proposed fractional derivative decreases then the population 12(e). In this case, the several values of basic reproductive number
of exposed 𝐸(𝑡) and infected 𝐼(𝑡) individuals went to decrease at the 0 < 1 are given in Table 2. Again we analysed that in these all cases
12
of set-3, infection is under control and population can easily recover equilibrium case can be easily analysed. In the group of sub-figures,
from this virus at the fixed transmission rate.
we established the graphs of every classes at different fractional order
Graphical simulations for set-4 (see Table 2) are established in
the range of Figs. 13–16 where the role of vaccine in disease-free values 𝜁. It is cleared that when the values of the fractional order
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
Fig. 17. Behaviour of the given classes for various vaccine rate 𝜈𝑟 when fractional order 𝜁 = 1 and transmission rate 𝜓 = 0.542.
23
Fig. 18. Behaviour of the given classes for various vaccine rate 𝜈𝑟 when fractional order 𝜁 = 1 and transmission rate 𝜓 = 0.315.
24
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Fractional Modelling

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Fractional Modelling

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Results in Physics 24 (2021) 104213

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

A new fractional mathematical modelling of COVID-19 with the availability

ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT

The local stability is analysed to determine the disease-free equilib-

𝑑𝐼 At ( 𝐴1 , 0, 0), the Jacobian matrix 𝐽 (𝑋) is given as:

with time-varying population 𝑁(𝑡). 𝜓𝐴1

Using this notation, the system (3) becomes (12)

Table 2 which only makes physical significance if

|𝐽̄(𝑍̄ 𝐸𝐸 ) − 𝜆𝐼| = 0. (23)

{ 𝐴𝐵𝐶 𝐷𝜁 ℧(𝑡) 𝑡𝑖+1

where Eq. (41) into Eq. (40) results

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