37- Conditional probability VU

Lecture# 37 Conditional probability

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
MULTIPLICATION THEOREM
INDEPENDENT EVENTS

EXAMPLE:
a. What is the probability of getting a 2 when a dice is tossed?
b. An even number appears on tossing a die.
(i) What is the probability that the number is 2?
(ii) What is the probability that the number is 3?
SOLUTION:
When a dice is tossed, the sample space is S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
a. Let “A” denote the event of getting a 2 i.e A={ 2 }

n  A 1
P( 2 appears when the die is tossed) = 
nS  6

b. (i) Let “S1” denote the total number of even numbers from a sample space S,when a
dice is tossed (i.e S1S )
S1={ 2,4,6 } n(S1)=3
37- Conditional probability VU

Let “B” denote the event of getting a 2 from total number of even number i.e B={ 2 }
n( B ) = 1
n  B 1
P(2 appears; given that the number is even)=P(B)= 
n  S 1 3
(ii) Let “C” denote the event of getting a 3 in S1(among the even numbers)i.e C={ }
n(C)=0
n C  0
P(3 appears; given that the number is even) =P(C ) =  0
n  S 1 3
EXAMPLE:
Suppose that an urn contains 3 red balls, 2 blue balls, and 4 white balls, and
that a ball is selected at random.
Let E be the event that the ball selected is red.
Then P(E) = 3/9 (as there are 3 red balls out of total 9 balls)
Let F be the event that the ball selected is not white.
Then the probability of E if it is already known that the selected ball is not white would
be
P(red ball selected; given that the selected ball is not white) = 3/5 (as we count no white
ball so there are total 9 balls(i.e 2 blue and 3 red balls ) )
This is called the conditional probability of E given F and is denoted by P(E|F).

DEFINITION:
Let E and F be two events in the sample space of an experiment with
P(F)  0. The conditional probability of E given F, denoted by P(E|F), is defined as

P(E  F)
P(E|F) 
P(F)
EXAMPLE:
Let A and B be events of an experiment such that
P(B) = 1/4 and P(AB) = 1/6.
What is the conditional probability P(A|B)?
SOLUTION:
P(A  B) 1/ 6 4 2
P(A|B)    
P(B) 1/ 4 6 3
EXERCISE:
Let A and B be events with P( A)  1 , P( B)  1 and P( A  B)  1
Find 2 3 4
(i) P( A | B) (ii) P( B | A)
(iii) P( A  B) (iv) P( Ac | B c )

SOLUTION:
37- Conditional probability VU

Using the formula of the conditional Probability we can write

P( A  B)
(i ) P( A | B) 
P( B)
1/ 4 3
 
1/ 3 4

P( B  A)
(ii ) P( B | A) 
P( A)


1/ 4 2 1
  (As P( B  A) = P( A  B) = 1/ 4 )
1/ 2 4 2

(iii ) P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B )
1 1 1
  
2 3 4
7

12

P( Ac  B c )
(iv) P( Ac | B c ) 
P( B c )
P(( A  B)c )
 (By using DeMorgan's Law)
P( B c )
1  P( A  B)
 [ P( E c )  1  P( E ) ]
1  P( B)
1  7 /12 5 /12 5 3 5
    
1  1/ 3 2 / 3 12 2 8

EXERCISE:
Find P(B|A) if
(i) A is a subset of B
(ii) A and B are mutually exclusive
SOLUTION:
(i) When A  B, then B  A = A ( As AABA  BA ……………..(i)
also we know that BA A ……………..(ii) , From (i) and (ii) clearly B  A = A )
P( B  A)
 P( B | A)  (as B  A  A  P( B  A)  P( A) )
P( A)
P( A)
 1
P( A)

(ii) When A and B are mutually exclusive, then B  A=

37- Conditional probability VU

P( B  A)
 P( B | A) 
P( A)
P( )
 ( Since B  A    P( B  A)  0 )
P( A)
0
 0 ( as P( )  0 )
P( A)

EXAMPLE:
Suppose that an urn contains three red balls marked 1, 2, 3, one blue ball
marked 4, and four white balls marked 5, 6, 7, 8.
A ball is selected at random and its color and number noted.
(i) What is the probability that it is red?
(ii) What is the probability that it has an even number marked on it?
(iii) What is the probability that it is red, if it is known that the ball selected has an even
number marked on it?
(iv) What is the probability that it has an even number marked on it, if it is known that the
ball selected is red?

SOLUTION:
Let E be the event that the ball selected is red .
(i) P(E) = 3/8

let F be the event that the ball selected has an even number marked on it.
(ii) P(F) = 4/8 (as there are four even numbers 2,4,6 & 8 out of total eight numbers).

(iii) EF is the event that the ball selected is red and has an even number marked on it.
Clearly P(EF) =1/8 (as there is only one ball which is red and marked an even number
”2” out of total eight balls).
Hence,
P(Selected ball is red, given that the ball selected has an even
number marked on it.) = P(E|F)
P(E  F) 1/ 8
   1/ 4
P(F) 4/8
(iv) P(Selected ball has an even number marked on it, given that
the ball selected is red) = P(F|E)
P(E  F) 1/ 8 1
  
P(E) 3/ 8 3

EXAMPLE:
Let a pair of dice be tossed. If the sum is 7, find the probability that one of
the dice is 2.

SOLUTION:
37- Conditional probability VU

Let E be the event that a 2 appears on at least one of the two dice, and F be
the event that the sum is 7.
Then
E = {(1, 2), (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6) ,(3, 2) (4, 2), (5, 2), ,(6, 2)}
F = {(1, 6), (2, 5), (3, 4), (4, 3), (5, 2), (6, 1)}
EF = {(2, 5), (5, 2)}
P(F) = 6/36 and P(EF) = 2/36.
Hence,
P(Probability that one of the dice is 2, given that the sum is 7)
= P(E|F)
P(E  F) 2 / 36 1
  
P(E) 6 / 36 3

EXAMPLE:
A man visits a family who has two children. One of the children, a boy,
comes into the room.
Find the probability that the other child is also a boy if
(i) The other child is known to be elder,
(ii) Nothing is known about the other child.
SOLUTION:
The sample space of the experiment is S = {bb, bg, gb, gg}
(The outcome bg specifies that younger is a boy and elder is a girl, etc.)
Let A be the event that both the children are boys.
Then, A = {bb}.
(i) Let B be the event that the younger is a boy. Then, B = {bb, bg},and AB = {bb}.
Hence, the required probability is
P(Probability that the other child is also a boy, given that the other child is elder) =
P(A  B) 1/ 4 1
P(A|B)   
P(B) 2/ 4 2
(ii) Let C be the event that one of the children is a boy.
Then C = {bb, bg, gb}, and AC = {bb}.
Hence, the required probability is
P(Probability that both the children are boys, given that one of the children is a boy)
= P(A|C)
P(A  C) 1/ 4 1
  
P(C) 3/ 4 3

MULTIPLICATION THEOREM

Let E and F be two events in the sample space of an experiment, then

P(EF) = P(F)P(E | F)
Or P(EF) = P(E)P(F | E)

Let E1, E2, . . . , En be events in the sample space of an experiment, then