Probability

• The probability of an event measures the likelihood of it happening. It is represented as

decimals, fractions or percentages.
• A probability of 0 indicates that the event will never happen.
• A probability of 1 (or 100%) indicates that the event will always happen.
• All other events have a probability between 0 and 1.
• Notations:
o 𝑺 = Possibility space (the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment)
o 𝒏(𝑺) = The number of outcomes in the possibility space
o 𝑬𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝑨 = Consists of one or more outcomes in 𝑆
o 𝒏(𝑨) = Number of outcomes resulting in event 𝐴.
• It can be helpful to draw a Venn diagram, where the possibility space 𝑆 is denoted by a
rectangle and the event 𝐴 by a circle/oval drawn inside the rectangle

• When outcomes are equally likely, the probability of event 𝐴 is written as P(𝐴) where

𝑛(𝐴) 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐴

P(𝐴) = 𝑛(𝑆)
= 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑆

• The complement of 𝐴, 𝐴′ is the event that 𝐴 does not occur,

where:
𝑃(𝐴’) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴)

Ex 1. When an ordinary fair cubical die in thrown, the number on

which it lands is noted. This can be written as 𝑆 = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} and
𝑛(𝑆) = 6. Let event 𝐴 be ‘the score is lower than 3’, then 𝐴 = {1, 2} and
2 1
𝑛(𝐴) = 2. Hence P(𝐴) = 6 = 3.

Ex 2. When two fair dice are thrown, there are 36 possible outcomes so
𝑛(𝑆) = 36. It is convenient to show these outcomes as dots in a
possibility space diagram. Let event 𝐵 be ‘the sum of the scores is 6’.
Then the outcomes resulting in 𝐵 are (1, 5), (2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2), (5, 1),
5
where 𝑛(𝐵) = 5. Hence 𝑃(𝐵) = 36.

Q1. A box contains 20 counters numbered 1, 2, 3, … up to 20. A counter is picked at random from
the box. Find the probability that the number on the counter is
(a) A multiple of 5
(b) Not a multiple of 5
(c) Higher than 7
Q2. A fair five-sided spinner has sides numbered 1, 1, 2, 3, 3. The spinner is
spun twice. Find the probability that the spinner will stop at 1 at least once.

• An ordinary set of playing cards consists of 52 cards, split equally into 4 suits:
o Diamonds and hearts are red suits
o Clubs and spades are black suits
o In each suit there are 13 cards: Ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, Jack, Queen, King
o The Jack, Queen and King of any suit are called picture cards

Q3. A card is dealt from a well-shuffled ordinary pack of 52 playing cards. Find the probability that
the card is
(a) The 4 of spades
(b) The 4 of spades or any diamond
The first card dealt is placed face-up on the table. It is the 3 of diamonds.
(c) What is the probability that the second card is from a red suit.

• Information may be given in a two-way table

Q4. The table shows the result of all the driving tests taken at a
particular test center during the first week of September. A person is
chosen at random from those who took their driving test that week.
(a) Find the probability that the person passed the driving test
(b) Find the probability that the person is a female who failed
the driving test
(c) A male is chosen. What is the probability that he passed the driving test?

• Using permutations or combinations to find probabilities: Sometimes, to find the number of

outcomes in a particular event or in the possibility space, you may have to use permutations or
combinations.

Q5. Ivan throws three fair dice.

(a) List all the possible scores on the three dice which give a total of 5, and hence show that the
1
probability of Ivan obtaining a total score of 5 is 36.
(b) Find the probability of Ivan obtaining a total score of 7.

Q6. Each of the eleven letters of the word MATHEMATICS is written on a separate card and the
cards are laid out in a line.
(a) Calculate the number of different arrangements of these letters
(b) Find the probability that all the vowels are placed together.

Q7. Four letters are chosen at random from the letters in the word RANDOMLY. Find the probability
that all the letters chosen are consonants.

Q8. A team of 5 people is chosen from a class of 7 girls and 8 boys. Find the probability that the
team consists of 3 girls and 2 boys.
Q9. A staff car park at a school has 13 parking spaces in a row. There are 9 cars to be parked.
(a) How many different arrangements are there for parking the 9 cars and leaving 4 empty
spaces?
(b) How many different arrangements are there if the 4 empty spaces are next to each other?
(c) If the parking is random, find the probability that there will not be 4 empty spaces next to
each other.

• Finding probability using identical objects: If some of the objects in the pool are identical, we
treat them so when finding the number of different selections or arrangements. However, if we
are required to find the probability, we must account for the fact that identical objects have a
higher probability of being chosen.

Q10. 4 letters are selected at random from the 8 letters of the word TOMORROW.
(a) Find the number of different selections that contain at least one O and at least one R.
(b) Find the probability that the selection contains at least one O and at least one R. (Q11 of
permutations and combinations)

Two or more events:

• 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝑏𝑜𝑡ℎ 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

• 𝑃(𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑠 𝑜𝑟 𝐵 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑠 𝑜𝑟 𝑏𝑜𝑡ℎ 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)

• Addition rule for combined events:

o 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

Q11. Two events, 𝑋 and 𝑌, are such that 𝑃(𝑋 or 𝑌) = 0.8, 𝑃(𝑋 ∩ 𝑌) = 0.35 and 𝑃(𝑋) = 0.6. Find
𝑃(𝑌 ′ ).

Q12. Some pupils did a survey on comics. They asked all 100 pupils in their year group whether
they had read particular comics during the past week. They found that 65 read Whizz, 55 has read
Wham, 30 had read Whizz and Wham and some pupils in the year group had not read either comic.
A pupil was selected at random from the year group to answer more questions in the survey. Find
the probability that the pupil
(a) Had read Whizz or Wham
(b) Had not read either comic.

• Mutually exclusive events: Two events are mutually exclusive if they

cannot occur at the same time. If events 𝐴 and 𝐵 are mutually exclusive,
then
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0
• Addition rule for mutually exclusive events:
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)
• The rule can be extended to 𝑛 mutually exclusive events 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 , … , 𝐴𝑛 :
𝑃(𝐴1 𝑜𝑟 𝐴2 𝑜𝑟 … 𝑜𝑟 𝐴𝑛 ) = 𝑃(𝐴1 ) + 𝑃(𝐴2 ) + ⋯ + 𝑃(𝐴𝑛 )

Q13. In a race there can be only one winner, the probability that John will win is 0.3, the probability
that Paul will win is 0.2 and the probability that Mark will win is 0.4. Find the probability that
(a) John or Mark wins
(b) John or Paul or Mark wins
(c) Someone else wins.

Q14. A card is dealt from an ordinary pack of 52 playing cards. Find the probability that the card is
(a) A club or a diamond,
(b) A club or a King.

• To show that two events are mutually exclusive, you must give working to show that either of
the following is satisfied:
o 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) or
o 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0

Q15. Two fair dice are thrown.

(a) Event 𝐴 is ‘the scores differ by 3 or more.’ Find the probability of event 𝐴.
(b) Event 𝐵 is ‘the product of the scores is greater than 8’. Find the probability of event 𝐵.
(c) State with a reason whether events 𝐴 and 𝐵 are mutually exclusive.

Conditional probability

• Used when probability of an event is affected by another event.

• For events 𝐴 and 𝐵, the conditional probability that event 𝐵 occurs, given that 𝐴 has occurred is
given by:
𝑛(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) = =
𝑛(𝐴) 𝑃(𝐴)
• This gives the multiplication rule:
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴)
Q16. There are 5 red counters and 7 blue counters in a bag. Darian takes a counter from the bag,
puts it on the table and then takes another counter from the bag. Find the probability that he takes
out
(a) A red counter then a blue counter
(b) Two counters that are the same colour
(c) At least one red counter

Q17. Two events 𝑋 and 𝑌 are such that 𝑃(𝑋) = 0.2, 𝑃(𝑌) = 0.25, 𝑃(𝑌|𝑋) = 0.4. Find
(a) 𝑃(𝑋 and 𝑌)
(b) 𝑃(𝑋|𝑌)
(c) 𝑃(𝑋 𝑜𝑟 𝑌)

Q18. Of the 120 first year students at a college, 36 study chemistry, 60 study biology and 10 study
both chemistry and biology. A first year student is selected at random to represent the college at a
conference. Find the probability that the student studies
(a) Chemistry, given that the student studies biology
(b) Biology, given that the student studies chemistry.

Q19. Last month a consultant saw 60 men and 65 women suspected of having a particular eye
condition. Tests were carried out and the following table shows the results. The totals are shown in
bold.

One of these patients was selected at random to take part in a survey. Find the probability that the
patient selected
(a) Was a woman, given that the patient had the eye condition
(b) Had the eye condition, given that the patient was a man.

• Independent events: In general, for events 𝐴 and 𝐵

𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴)
• However, for independent events:
𝑃(𝐵/𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵) and
𝑃(𝐴/𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)
• This gives the following multiplication rule for independent events:
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)
• This rule can be extended to 𝑛 independent events 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 , 𝐴3 , … , 𝐴𝑛 :
𝑃(𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 … ∩ 𝐴𝑛 ) = 𝑃(𝐴1 ) × 𝑃(𝐴2 ) × … × 𝑃(𝐴𝑛 )
Q20. There are 5 red counters and 7 blue counters in a bag. Eliza takes a counter from the bag,
notes its colour and then puts it back into the bag. Freddie then takes a counter from the bag. Find
the probability that
(a) Eliza takes a red counter and Freddie takes a clue counter
(b) Freddie’s counter is the same colour as Eliza’s counter

Q21. Two fair cubical dice are thrown. One is red and the other is blue. Find the probability that
(a) The score is 3 on both dice
(b) Neither die has a score of 3

Q22. The probability that a certain type of machine will breakdown in the first month of operation
is 0.1. Three machines of this type are installed at the same time. The performances of the three
machines are independent. Find the probability that at the end of the first month
(a) All three machines have broken down
(b) Just one machine has broken down
(c) At least one machine is working

• To show that events 𝐴 and 𝐵 are independent, give working to show any one of the following:
o 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵) or
o 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) or
o 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵)

Q23. Data about employment for males and females in a small rural area are shown in the table.

A person from this area is chosen at random. Let 𝑀 be the evnt that the person is male and let 𝐸 be
the event that the person is employed.
(a) Find P(𝑀)
(b) Find P(𝑀 and 𝐸)
(c) Are 𝑀 and 𝐸 independent events? Justify your answer.
(d) Given that the person chosen in unemployed, find the probability that the person is female.

Q24. Events 𝐴 and 𝐵 are such that 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.3, 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.6 and 𝑃(𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵) = 0.72. State, giving a
reason in each case, whether events 𝐴 and 𝐵 are
(a) Mutually exclusive
(b) Independent
• Probability tree diagrams: Another way of representing the sample space is a probability tree
diagram. It can be made for both, conditional and independent events.

Q25. In country 𝐴, 30% of people who drink tea have sugar in it.in country 𝐵, 65% of people who
drink tea have sugar in it. There are 3 million people in country 𝐴 who drink tea and 12 million
people in country 𝐵 who drink tea. A person is chosen at random from these 15 million people.
(a) Find the probability that the person chosen is from country 𝐴.
(b) Find the probability that the person chosen does not have sugar in their tea.
(c) Given that the person chosen does not have sugar in their tea, find the probability that the
person is from country 𝐵.

Q26. There are three sets of traffic lights on Karinne’s journey to work. The independent
probabilities that Karinne has to stop at the first, second and third sets of lights are 0.4, 0.8 and 0.3
respectively.
(a) Draw a tree diagram to show this information
(b) Find the probability that Karinne has to stop at each of the first two sets of lights but does
not have to stop at the third set of lights.
(c) Find the probability that Karinne has to stop at exactly two of the three sets of lights.
(d) Find the probability that Karinne has to stop at the first set of lights, given that she has to
stop at exactly two sets of lights.

Q27. The probability that Henk goes swimming on any day is 0.2. On a day that he goes swimming,
the probability that Henk has burgers for supper is 0.75. On a day when he does not go for
swimming, the probability that he has burgers for his supper is 𝑥. The information is shown on the
following tree diagram.

The probability that Henk has burgers for supper on any day is 0.5.
(a) Find 𝑥
(b) Given that Henk has burgers for supper, find the probability that he went swimming that
day.

Q28. When Don plays tennis, 65% go into the correct area of the court. If the first serve goes into
the correct area, his chance of winning the point is 90%. If his first serve does not go into the
correct area, Don is allowed a second serve and, of these, 80% go into the correct area. If his second
serve goes into the correct area, his chance of winning the point is 60%. If neither serve goes into
the correct area, Don loses the point.
(a) Draw a tree diagram to represent this information
(b) Using your tree diagram, find the probability that Don loses the point.
 (c) Find the probability that Don’s first serve goes into the correct area, given that he loses the
point.

Q29. In an archery competition, Bill is allowed up to 3 attempts to hit the target. If he succeeds on
any attempt, he does not make any more attempts. The probability that he will hit the target on the
first attempt is 0.6. If he misses, the probability that he will hit the target on the second attempt is
0.7. If he misses on the second attempt, the probability that he will hit the target on the third
attempt is 0.8.
(a) Draw a fully labelled tree diagram.
(b) Find the probability that Bill will hit the target.
(c) Given that Bill hits the target, find the probability that he made at least 2 attempts.

Q30. A fair five-sided spinner has sides numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Raj spins the spinner and throws two
fair dice. He calculates his score as follows:
o If the spinner lands on an even-numbered side, Raj multiplies the two numbers showing
on the dice to get his score
o If the spinner lands on an odd-numbered side, Raj adds the numbers showing on the
dice to get his score.
Given that Raj’s score is 12, find the probability that the spinner landed on an even-numbered side.

Q31. Susan has a bag of sweets containing 7 chocolates and 5 toffees. Ahmad has a bag of sweets
containing 3 chocolates, 4 toffees and 2 boiled sweets. A sweet is taken at random from Susan’s bag
and put in Ahmad’s bag. A sweet is then taken at random from Ahmad’s bag.
(a) Find the probability that the two sweets taken are a toffee from Susan’s bag and a boiled
sweet from Ahmad’s bag.
(b) Given that the sweet taken from Ahmad’s bag is a chocolate, find the probability that the
sweet taken from Susan’s bag was also a chocolate.

Q32. In a television quiz show Peter answers questions one after another, stopping as soon as a
question is answered wrongly.
o The probability that Oeter gives the correct answer himself to any question is 0.7.
o The probability that Peter gives a wrong answer himself to any question is 0.1
o The probability that Peter decides to ask for help for any question is 0.2.
On the first occasion that Peter decides to ask for help he asks the audience. The probability that the
audience gives the correct answer to any question is 0.95. this information is shown in the tree
diagram below.

(a) Show that the probability that the first question is answered correctly is 0.89
On the second occasion that Peter decides to ask for help he phones a friend. The probability that
his friend gives the correct answer to any question is 0.65.
(b) Find the probability that the first two questions are both answered correctly.
(c) Given that the first two questions were both answered correctly, find the probability that
Peter asked the audience.