notes on
notes on
ECONOMETRICS
Academic year 2009/10
FINAL EXAM (2nd Call)
1. Each question, unless otherwise stated, requires a complete analysis of all the outputs shown in the
corresponding problem.
For example, to answer those questions referring to “appropriate estimates”, or “given the estimates”or
“given the problem conditions”, the results based on the consistent and more e¢ cient among outputs,
must be used.
2. The questions have been randomly ordered.
3. Each output includes all the explanatory variables used in the corresponding estimation.
4. Some results in the output shown may have been omitted.
5. The dependent variable can vary among outputs within the same problem.
6. For the sake of brevity, we will say that a model is well speci…ed if it is linear in the conditioning
variables (as they appear in the model) and its error term is mean-independent of such variables.
7. OLS, and 2SLS or TSLS, are the corresponding abreviations of ordinary least squares and two stage
least squares, respectively.
8. Statistical tables are included at the end of this document.
Problem: Determinants of fertility.
We would like to study the determinants of the total woman’s number of children (KIDS). We are
interested in knowing if fertility rates (meaning the average number of children per woman) have changed
over time. We have a sample of 476 women from the General Social Survey of the National Opinion Research
Center (NORC) in the USA for the years 1972, 1978 and 1984.
The characteristics of the woman we are interested in are EDU C (Years of education), AGE (Age, in
years), AGE 2 (Age squared), BLACK (Binary variable that takes the value of 1 if the woman is black and
0 otherwise).
Moreover, in order to consider the possibility that fertility rates change over time, we have the variables
Y EAR (The year corresponding to the observation; this variable takes three possible values: 72, 78 or
84); Y 72 (Binary variable that takes the value of 1 if the observation corresponds to the year 1972 and 0
otherwise); Y 78 (Binary variable that takes the value of 1 if the observation corresponds to the year 1978
and 0 otherwise); Y 84 (Binary variable that takes the value of 1 if the observation corresponds to the year
1984 and 0 otherwise).
Also, we take into account the possibility of interacting Y EAR with education, (Y EAR EDU C).
The following models are considered to analyze the determinants of the number of children women have:
2
KIDS = 0 + 1 AGE + 2 AGE + 3 BLACK + 4 EDU C + 5Y EAR + "1 (I)
2
KIDS = 0 + 1 AGE + 2 AGE + 3 BLACK + 4 EDU C + 5Y 78 + 6Y 84 + "2 (II)
We also observe two further binary variables, RU RAL (that takes the value of 1 if the woman lived in a
rural area in her teens and 0 otherwise) and LP OP (that takes the value of 1 if the woman lived in a highly
populated area in her teens and 0 otherwise). Of course, interactions of Y EAR with these two variables,
(Y EAR RU RAL) y (Y EAR LP OP ), can also be considered.
The results of the various estimations are presented below:
2
Output 2: OLS, using observations 1–476
Dependent variable: KIDS
Coe¢ cient Std. Error t-ratio p-value
const 6:0500 4.8054 1:2590 0.2087
AGE 0:4908 0.2179 2:2518 0.0248
AGE 2 0:0055 0.0025 2:2398 0.0256
BLACK 0:3814 0.2931 1:3014 0.1938
EDU C 0:1374 0.0298 4:6184 0.0000
Y 78 0:1001 0.1871 0:5351 0.5929
Y 84 0:5794 0.1827 3:1706 0.0016
Mean dependent var 2.67 S.D. dependent var 1.67
Sum squared resid 1194.3 S.E. of regression 1.60
R2 0.1020 Adjusted R2 0.0905
F (6; 469) 8.87 P-value(F ) 3.5e–09
3
Output 4: TSLS, using observations 1–476
Dependent variable: KIDS
Instrumented: EDU C
Instruments: const AGE AGE 2 BLACK Y EAR RU RAL LP OP (Y EAR RU RAL) (Y EAR LP OP )
Coe¢ cient Std. Error z-stat p-value
const 43:3158 34.9236 1:2403 0.2149
AGE 0:6207 0.2728 2:2749 0.0229
AGE 2 0:0069 0.0031 2:2416 0.0250
BLACK 0:6224 0.3591 1:7331 0.0831
EDU C 3:0089 2.8246 1:0652 0.2868
Y EAR 0:3817 0.4369 0:8736 0.3824
(Y EAR EDU C) 0:0360 0.0350 1:0299 0.3031
4
Mean dependent var 12.71 S.D. dependent var 2.53
Sum squared resid 2878.1 S.E. of regression 2.47
R2 0.0530 Adjusted R2 0.0449
F (4; 471) 6.6 P-value(F ) 0.00004
5
Mean dependent var 2.67 S.D. dependent var 1.67
R2 0.1250 Adjusted R2
6
Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
ECONOMETRIC
Academic year 2009/10
FINAL EXAM (2nd Call)
June, 25, 2010
Tipo de examen: 1
DURATION: 125 minutes
Directions:
– Fill in your personal data in the optical reading form, which will be the only valid answering
document. Remember that you must complete all your identifying information (name and
surname(s), and NIU, which has 9 digit and always begins by 1000) both in letters and in the
corresponding optical reading boxes.
– Fill in, both in letters and in the corresponding optical reading boxes, the course code and your
group.
• Check that the exam type that appears in the questionnaire matches the one indicated in the optical
reading form.
• For each row regarding the number of each question, fill the box which corresponds with your answer
in the optical reading form (A, B, or C).
• If you wish, you may use the answer table as a draft, although such table does not have any official
validity.
• You can use the back side of the problem text as a draft (no additional sheets will be handed out).
• Any student who were found talking or sharing any sort of material during the exam
will be expelled out immediately and his/her overall score will be zero, independently
of any other measure that could be undertaken.
• Date and place of exam revision: Wednesday, June, 30, at 14:30 h. Rooms 15.1.39, 15.1.41 and
15.1.43.
Answer DRAFT
(a) (b) (c) (a) (b) (c) (a) (b) (c) (a) (b) (c)
1. 13. 25. 37.
2. 14. 26. 38.
3. 15. 27. 39.
4. 16. 28. 40.
5. 17. 29. 41.
6. 18. 30. 42.
7. 19. 31. 43.
8. 20. 32. 44.
9. 21. 33. 45.
10. 22. 34. 46.
11. 23. 35. 47.
12. 24. 36. 48.
Tipo de examen: 2
DURATION: 125 minutes
Directions:
– Fill in your personal data in the optical reading form, which will be the only valid answering
document. Remember that you must complete all your identifying information (name and
surname(s), and NIU, which has 9 digit and always begins by 1000) both in letters and in the
corresponding optical reading boxes.
– Fill in, both in letters and in the corresponding optical reading boxes, the course code and your
group.
• Check that the exam type that appears in the questionnaire matches the one indicated in the optical
reading form.
• For each row regarding the number of each question, fill the box which corresponds with your answer
in the optical reading form (A, B, or C).
• If you wish, you may use the answer table as a draft, although such table does not have any official
validity.
• You can use the back side of the problem text as a draft (no additional sheets will be handed out).
• Any student who were found talking or sharing any sort of material during the exam
will be expelled out immediately and his/her overall score will be zero, independently
of any other measure that could be undertaken.
• Date and place of exam revision: Wednesday, June, 30, at 14:30 h. Rooms 15.1.39, 15.1.41 and
15.1.43.
Answer DRAFT
(a) (b) (c) (a) (b) (c) (a) (b) (c) (a) (b) (c)
1. 13. 25. 37.
2. 14. 26. 38.
3. 15. 27. 39.
4. 16. 28. 40.
5. 17. 29. 41.
6. 18. 30. 42.
7. 19. 31. 43.
8. 20. 32. 44.
9. 21. 33. 45.
10. 22. 34. 46.
11. 23. 35. 47.
12. 24. 36. 48.
Tipo de examen: 3
DURATION: 125 minutes
Directions:
– Fill in your personal data in the optical reading form, which will be the only valid answering
document. Remember that you must complete all your identifying information (name and
surname(s), and NIU, which has 9 digit and always begins by 1000) both in letters and in the
corresponding optical reading boxes.
– Fill in, both in letters and in the corresponding optical reading boxes, the course code and your
group.
• Check that the exam type that appears in the questionnaire matches the one indicated in the optical
reading form.
• For each row regarding the number of each question, fill the box which corresponds with your answer
in the optical reading form (A, B, or C).
• If you wish, you may use the answer table as a draft, although such table does not have any official
validity.
• You can use the back side of the problem text as a draft (no additional sheets will be handed out).
• Any student who were found talking or sharing any sort of material during the exam
will be expelled out immediately and his/her overall score will be zero, independently
of any other measure that could be undertaken.
• Date and place of exam revision: Wednesday, June, 30, at 14:30 h. Rooms 15.1.39, 15.1.41 and
15.1.43.
Answer DRAFT
(a) (b) (c) (a) (b) (c) (a) (b) (c) (a) (b) (c)
1. 13. 25. 37.
2. 14. 26. 38.
3. 15. 27. 39.
4. 16. 28. 40.
5. 17. 29. 41.
6. 18. 30. 42.
7. 19. 31. 43.
8. 20. 32. 44.
9. 21. 33. 45.
10. 22. 34. 46.
11. 23. 35. 47.
12. 24. 36. 48.
Tipo de examen: 4
DURATION: 125 minutes
Directions:
– Fill in your personal data in the optical reading form, which will be the only valid answering
document. Remember that you must complete all your identifying information (name and
surname(s), and NIU, which has 9 digit and always begins by 1000) both in letters and in the
corresponding optical reading boxes.
– Fill in, both in letters and in the corresponding optical reading boxes, the course code and your
group.
• Check that the exam type that appears in the questionnaire matches the one indicated in the optical
reading form.
• For each row regarding the number of each question, fill the box which corresponds with your answer
in the optical reading form (A, B, or C).
• If you wish, you may use the answer table as a draft, although such table does not have any official
validity.
• You can use the back side of the problem text as a draft (no additional sheets will be handed out).
• Any student who were found talking or sharing any sort of material during the exam
will be expelled out immediately and his/her overall score will be zero, independently
of any other measure that could be undertaken.
• Date and place of exam revision: Wednesday, June, 30, at 14:30 h. Rooms 15.1.39, 15.1.41 and
15.1.43.
Answer DRAFT
(a) (b) (c) (a) (b) (c) (a) (b) (c) (a) (b) (c)
1. 13. 25. 37.
2. 14. 26. 38.
3. 15. 27. 39.
4. 16. 28. 40.
5. 17. 29. 41.
6. 18. 30. 42.
7. 19. 31. 43.
8. 20. 32. 44.
9. 21. 33. 45.
10. 22. 34. 46.
11. 23. 35. 47.
12. 24. 36. 48.