2.

3 Multiplication Rules and Conditional Probability Unit 2

2.3 Multiplication Rules and Conditional Probability

"Multiple Draws"

Objectives:
-Find the probability of compound events using multiplication rules of
probability.

© Ashley Spencer
-Find the conditional probability of an event.
-Understand the difference between independent and dependent events and
how to calculate the probability of each.

Common Core Standards:

S.CP.1 - Describe events as subsets of a sample space (the set of outcomes) using characteristics (or categories) of the outcomes,
or as unions, intersections, or complements of other events.
S.CP.2 - Understand that two events A and B are independent if the probability of A and B occurring together is the product of their
probabilities, and use this characterization to determine if they are independent.
S.CP.3 - Understand that the conditional probability of A given B as P(A and B)/P(B), and interpret independence of A and B as
saying that the conditional probability of A given B is the same as the probability of A, and the conditional probability of B given A is
the same as the probability of B.
S.CP.5 - Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday language and everyday
situations.
S.CP.6 - Find the conditional probability of A given B as the fraction of B's outcomes that also belong to A, and interpret the answer
in terms of the model.

Independent Events
Events where the probability of the first event occurring doesn't affect the probability of
the second event occurring.

Example:
-Rolling a die and getting 5, and then rolling the die again and getting a 2. © Ashley Spencer

-Drawing a card and getting a Queen, replacing that card, and then drawing again and
getting a black card. ("With Replacement")
-Tossing a coin and getting a head, then tossing a coin and getting another head.

On Your Own:
-Come up with your own example of independent events.

"With Replacement"
Why is it important that the card is replaced after being drawn in a deck of cards?
So the sample space and possible outcomes don't change! Each card has the
same probability of being chosen both times.
2.3 Multiplication Rules and Conditional Probability Unit 2

Probability of Independent Events

When two events A and B are independent, the probability that A and B will occur is
the product of the probabilities. (Multiple Draws)

P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B) Notation:

P(A ∩ B) = P(A) • P(B)

© Ashley Spencer
∩ (Intersection) = "And"

Example:
A coin is flipped and then a die is rolled. Find the probability of getting a tail on the coin
and a 6 on the die.

P(Head and 4) = P(Head) • P(4) 1

1 1 1 or .083
|
P(Head and 4) = • = 12
|
|

2 6 12

Find the following probabilities. Discuss independent events as

you work through the questions.

Two cards are drawn from a deck with replacement. What is the probability of drawing
a queen and then an ace?
P(Queen and Ace) = P(Queen) • (Ace)
4 4 16 1
P(Queen and Ace) = • = or .006
|
|

© Ashley Spencer

52 52 2704 169

What is the probability of rolling a die twice and getting an odd number and then a 2?

P(Odd and 2) = P(Odd) • P(2)

1
3 1 3 or .083
P(Odd and 2) = • =
|
|

12
6 6 36

A bag contains 3 red beans, 2 blue beans, and 5 white beans. If two beans are drawn
with replacement, what is the probability of drawing a blue and white bean?
P(Blue and White) = P(Blue) • P(White)
2 5 10 1
P(Blue and White) = • = or .1
|
|

10 10 100 10
2.3 Multiplication Rules and Conditional Probability Unit 2

Find the following probabilities. Discuss independent events as

you work through the questions.

A study has shown that 39% of people will be diagnosed with cancer in their lifetime. If
you choose three people at random, what is the probability that all three will be
diagnosed with cancer?
P(Cancer ∩ Cancer ∩ Cancer) = P(Cancer) • P(Cancer) • P(Cancer)

© Ashley Spencer
P(Cancer ∩ Cancer ∩ Cancer) = (.39)(.39)(.39) = .0593
5.93%

About 9% of men have red-green color blindness. If three men are selected at
random, what is the probability that two will be color blind and one will not be color
blind?
P(CB ∩ CB ∩ Not CB) = P(CB) • P(CB) • P(Not CB)
0.74%
P(CB ∩ CB ∩ Not CB) = (.09)(.09)(.91) = .0074

Find the following probability.

What is the probability of flipping a coin and getting four heads in a row?

P(H ∩ H ∩ H ∩ H) = P(H) • P(H) • P(H) • P(H)

P(H ∩ H ∩ H ∩ H) = (.5)(.5)(.5)(.5) = .0625
6.25% © Ashley Spencer

Sample Space:
HHHH TTHT THHT HHHT
TTTT TTTH TTHH HHTH
HTTT HHTT THTH HTHH 1
= .0625
THTT HTHT HTTH THHH 16
2.3 Multiplication Rules and Conditional Probability Unit 2

Dependent Events
Events where the outcome of the first event affects the outcome of the second event
in a way that the probability is changed.

Conditional Probability
The probability that an event (B) occurs after an event (A) has already occurred. This

© Ashley Spencer
will cause a change in the sample space.

Example:
-Drawing a card and getting a Queen, not replacing that card, and then drawing again
and getting a black card. ("Without Replacement")
-Drawing colored chips from a bag without replacing them.
-Speeding while driving and getting a speeding ticket.

"Without Replacement"
Why is it important to know the card is not replaced after being drawn?
The second event will depend on the outcome of the first event. It will change the
sample space and may change the number of desired outcomes.

Probability of Dependent Events

When two events A and B are dependent the probability that A and B will occur is the
product of the probability of event A and the conditional probability of event B.

Notation:
P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B|A)
∩ (Intersection) = "And"
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) • P(B|A)
© Ashley Spencer

P(B|A) = Probability of B
given that A has occurred
Conditional Probability
Example:
Two cards are drawn from a deck without replacement. What is the probability of
drawing an ace and then drawing a jack?
P(Ace and Jack) = P(Ace) • P(Jack|Ace) 4
or .006
4 4 16 663
P(Ace and Jack) = • =
|
|

52 51 2652

Why is the probability of drawing a jack 4/51?

Since the first card was not replaced, there are only 51 cards in the deck when the
second card is drawn.
2.3 Multiplication Rules and Conditional Probability Unit 2

Find the following probabilities. Discuss dependent events as you

work through the questions.

Two cards are drawn from a deck without replacement. What is the probability of
drawing two jacks?
P(Jack and Jack) = P(Jack) • P(Jack) 1
4 3 12
or .005
221
P(Jack and Jack) = • =

|
|

© Ashley Spencer
52 51 2652

Three cards are drawn from a deck without replacement. What is the probability of
drawing an ace, king, and queen?
4 4 4 64
P(Ace and King and Queen) = • • = 8
or .0005
|
|
52 51 50 132,600
16,575

Three cards are drawn from a deck without replacement. What is the probability of
drawing two spades and a heart?
13 12 13 2028
P(Spade and Spade and Heart) = • • = 13
|
|
52 51 50 132,600 or .015
850

Find the following probabilities. Discuss dependent events as you

work through the questions.

In a scientific study there are 10 mice, 6 of which are brown. If 2 are selected at
random without replacement, find the probability that they are both brown.
6 5 30
P(B ∩ B) = • = 1
|
|

10 9 90 or .333
|

3 © Ashley Spencer

Find the probability that one is brown and one is not brown.
6 4 24
P(B ∩ not B) = • = 4
|
|

10 9 90 or .267
|

15

Acme Insurance Company found that 53% of the residents of Wichita had
homeowner's insurance with their company. 27% of the residents also had auto
insurance with the company. If a resident is selected at random, find the probability
that the resident has both homeowner's and auto insurance with the company.
*Probability of having
P(Home and Auto) = P(Home) • P(Auto|Home)* auto insurance GIVEN
14.3% that they have
P(Home and Auto) = .53 • .27 = .143 homeowner's
insurance with Acme
2.3 Multiplication Rules and Conditional Probability Unit 2

Draw a Tree Diagram

A box contains 8 gloves (G), 4 hats (H), and 5 scarves (S). Model a situation where
two items are selected without replacement.

7
P(G|G) =

|
16

© Ashley Spencer
4
P(H|G) =

|
8 16
P(G) = 8
|

17 5 P(G|H) =

|
4 P(S|G) = 16

|
P(H) = 16
|

17 3
P(H|H) =

|
16
8 5
P(G|S) = P(S|H) =

|
5 16 16
P(S) =
|

17 4
P(H|S) =
|

16
4
P(S|S) =
|

16

Find the following probability.

A box contains blue chips and red chips. Two chips are randomly selected without
replacement. If the probability of selecting a blue chip and a red chip is 15/56, and the
probability of selecting a blue chip on the first draw is 3/8, find the probability of
drawing a red chip on the second draw, given that the first chip was a blue chip.
© Ashley Spencer

P(B ∩ R) = P(B) • P(R|B) OR P(B ∩ R) = P(B) • P(R|B)

15 3 .268 = .375x
= x
|
|

56 8
Divide by 3/8
.715 = x
5
= x
|

Note: Conditional probability can be used with independent or dependent events! With
independent events, P(B|A) is the same as P(B) because the first probability has no
effect on the second probability.