Making Simple Predictions of Events and Solving Problems Involving

Experimental and Theoretical Probability (Week 3)

LEARNING COMPETENCIES:

▪ Makes simple predictions of events based on the results of experiments (M6SP-IVi-

23)
▪ Solves routine and non-routine problems involving experimental and theoretical
probability (M6SP-IVj-24)

How can you make simple predictions of events based on the results of experiments?

How do you solve routine and non-routine problems involving experimental and
theoretical probability?

Try this.

Do an experiment. Roll a die and do the following:

1. List the outcomes of the event that the top face is even.
2. What is the probability that the top face is an odd number?
3. What is the probability that the top face will show an even number?

You will be more guided upon reading and studying the short discussion and
important points to remember given to you that even without the teacher you can
still manage to learn.

Directions: Read and study the sample problem below. Try to answer the
questions that follow.

A bowl contains 12 slips of paper, each with a different name

of a month. Find the theoretical probability that a slip selected at
random from the bowl has a name of a month that starts with letter J.
Explanation:
Since there are 12 months in a year, so there are 12 possible
outcomes. There are 3 months that starts with letter J: January, June,
and July.

𝟑 𝟏
and in simplest form, this becomes 𝟒
𝟏𝟐
P=

𝟏
𝟒

𝟏
P= So, the probability of picking a month that begins

𝟒
with letter J is

Read and study the following important points so that you will be
guided on how to make simple predictions of events based on the results
of experiments and in solving routine and non-routine problems involving
experimental and theoretical probability.
Discussion
In making simple prediction of events, use a scale like:

𝟏
0or 0% = for impossible to happen

𝟒 or 25% = unlikely to happen

 𝟏
𝟐 or 50% = equally or unlikely to happen

𝟑
𝟒 or 75% = likely to happen

1or 100% = certain to happen

Probability

Probability is used to describe how likely or unlikely it is that

something will happen. Probability will be given in fraction, decimal or
percent. The value of probability ranges from 0 to 1(0 means the event is
impossible to happen, while 1 means the event is certain to happen.)
Probability will help us decide how often something is likely to
happen, but it will never help you exactly when that event will happen
unless the probability is 0 (it will never happen) or 1 (it will surely happen.)
Possible outcomes are each of the outcomes that could result from an
experiment.

Theoretical and Experimental probability:

When we use a formula to find the probability of an event, we are finding

the theoretical probability. Theoretical probability of an event is the
number of ways that an event can occur divided by the total number of
outcomes. Theoretical probability is what we expect to happen.
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝐹𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
Theoretical probability (event) =
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑃𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠

Experimental probability of an event is the ratio of the number of times

an event occurs to the total number of trials or times the activity is
performed. We can also find the probability of an event by doing an
experiment. When we do this, we are finding experimental probability.
Experimental probability is what actually happen when we try it out.
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝐹𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑂𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟
Experimental probability(event)= 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑇𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡

Experimental probability is used in most real-life situations when the

probabilities cannot be determined theoretically. As more trials conducted,
the experimental probability generally gets closer to the theoretical
probability.

Sample exercise in finding the theoretical probability:

1. There are 6 possible ways for a die (singular of dice) to turn up. What
is the probability of rolling a 1? a 2? a 5?

Each number is equally likely to occur, so:

 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝐹𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 = 1
6
Probability (1) =
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑃𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝐹𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 1
Probability (2) = 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝐹𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 = 1
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑃𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 6

Probability (5) = 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝐹𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 = 1

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑃𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 6

Sample exercise in finding the experimental probability:

1. A bag contains 12 red marbles, 8 blue marbles, and 4 yellow
marbles. Find the experimental probability of getting a blue marble.

Solution:
Take a marble from the bag.
Record the color and return the marble in the bag.
Repeat the process (at least 10 times).
Count the number of times a blue marble was picked
(suppose it is 4).

Using the formula we have,

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝐹𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑂𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟
Experimental probability(event)=
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑇𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡

P (blue marble) =
ACTIVITY 1
Directions: Try to answer the following problems. Write the correct letter of
the correct answer in your notebook.

1. A day is chosen from a week. Find the probability of choosing a

Wednesday.

a. b. c. d.
th
2. What is the probability of choosing 7 letter “a” from the word
“Mathematics”?

a. b. c. d.
3. A bag contains 10 marbles: 3 red, 3 green, and 4 blue. If a marble is
picked at random, what is the probability of getting a blue marble?

a. b. c. d.
4.) A spinner has 4 equal sectors colored green, white, blue, and red.
What is the probability of landing on each color after spinning the
spinner?

a. b. c. d.

Activity 2
Directions: Solve the following problems. Write the correct letter of the
correct answer in your notebook.
 1. There are 5 white balls, 8 red balls, 7 yellow balls, and 4 green
balls in a jar. A ball is chosen at random. What is the probability of
choosing red?

a. b. c. d.
2. A bag contains 5 blue sticks,4 red sticks and 3 orange sticks and
you ask your friend to pick one without looking. What is the
probability that the stick will be blue?

a. b. c. d.

3. When a six-sided die is rolled, what is the probability that the

number rolled will be five?

a. b. c. d.

4. You ask a friend to think of a number from 4 to 10. What is the

probability that his number will be 7?

a. b. c. d.

Activity 3
Directions: Read the situation below. And answer the questions that follow.

Kian got one face mask from a drawer that contains 2 brown face masks,
3 white face masks and 1 blue face mask.

1. What is the probability that he will get a brown face mask?

2. What is the probability of getting the red face mask?
3. What is the probability of not picking a white face mask?

Making and Telling The Number of Favorable Outcomes

and Chances
Using Listing and Diagrams
This is a menu posted on the wall of a restaurant.

Burgers Beverages
Hamburgers Coca cola
Cheeseburger Iced Tea
Pizza burger Orange juice
Chickenburger Hot chocolate

1. How many ways can you order for a snack?

2. How many ways can you order for a complete snack?
3. Solve through the listing method.
Suppose you spin the spinner. Make a sample space for the spin.

Solution:
The spinner can land on 8 different regions. To make the sample
space, list all the possible outcomes of the spin.
 Answer: The sample space is: 3,4,5.6.7,8,1,2

Listing Diagrams:
To calculate probability, we need to know all the different things
that happen. A sample space is a list of all the possible outcomes of
an activity or experiments.

Example:
Use the menu to solve through a tree diagram.

HAMBURGER
Regular burger
Cheeseburger
Pizzaburger

BEVERAGES

Juice
Tea

There is more than one way to solve this problem.

Solutions:
LISTING: Use R for regular, C for cheese, P for pizza, J for Juice, and T
for tea.

OUTCOMES:
a. R, J b. R, T c. C, J d. C, T e. P, J f. P, T

The list shows there are 6 ways to order snacks.

TREE DIAGRAM:
Outcomes:
Juice Regular Burgerand Juice
Regular Burger
Tea Regular Burgerand Tea

Juice Cheeseb urger and Juice

Snacks Cheese burger
In the diagram, we can see that, or each of the three kinds of hamburger,
there are two beverage choices. Thus,3 x 2 = 6, there are 6 ways to order
snacks.

Activity 1
Directions: Answer the following questions based on the listing in finding
the possible outcomes.

Phil Jet Airlines offers its flight attendants a variety of uniform styles from
which they can choose. The jackets come in both red and blue. The
blouses come in red, white, and blue.

Uniform

Red Blue

Red White Blue Red White Blue

Red Red Red Blue Blue Blue

Jacket Jacket Jacket Jacket Jacket Jacket
Red White Blue Red White Blue
Blous Blous Blous Blous Blous Blous
e e e e e e

a. How many uniforms are possible?

b. What are the favorable outcomes of wearing a uniform with a
red jacket and blue blouse?
c. What are the favorable outcomes of wearing a uniform with red
blouse?

Activity 2
Directions: Find the favorable outcomes by listing. Write the letter of the
correct answer in your notebook.

Kate has 6 blouses and 7 skirts.

1. How many different outfits can she make?

 a. 6 outfits b. 7 outfits c. 4 outfits d. 3
outfits
A pair of coin is tossed.

2. What are the favorable outcomes?

a. ones b. two times c. three times d. none
3. What is the chance of showing head?

a. two times b. three times c. ones d. none

4. What is the chance of showing tail?
a. three times b. once c. two times d. none
5. Rolling a die, what is the favorable outcome that 7 will come
out.
a. 5 times b. 6 times c. 4 times d. none

Activity 3
Directions: Analyze the statement and identify the letter of the correct
answer.
A Milk Tea shop asked their customers their favorite Milk Tea and
recorded the results.
Number of
Flavor
Customers
Cookies & Cream 12

Chocolate 27

Strawberry 5

Cucumber 9

1. Find the probability that the next customer will purchase Strawberry.
a. b. c. d.
2. Find the probability that the next customer will not purchase
Strawberry.
a. b. c. d.
3. Find the probability that the next customer will purchase Chocolate.
a. b. c. d.
4. Find the probability that the next customer purchase cookies &
cream.

a. b. c. d.