L E S S O N I

ELMER JOHN VERGARA

LESSON I, UNIT A
• Illustrates a random variable (discrete and continuous).
• Distinguishes between a Discrete and continuous random variable.
• Illustrates a probability distribution for a discrete random variable and
its properties.
• Computes probabilities corresponding to a given random variable.
• Illustrates the mean and variance of a discrete random variable.
• Calculates the mean and variance of a discrete random variable.
• Solves problems involving mean and variance of probability
distribution.
How does it feel to be chosen?
The chance that a given event will
occur.
CLASSICAL PROBABILITY

Classical probability assumes that all outcomes in the

simple space are equally likely to occur.

𝑛(𝐸)
𝑃 𝐸 =
𝑛(𝑆)
𝒏(𝑬) - 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝐸
𝒏(𝑺) - 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
EMPIRICAL OR RELATIVE FREQUENCY PROBABILITY

Empirical probability is the type of probability that uses frequency

distribution based on observations to determine numerical probabilities
of events.

𝑓
𝑃 𝐸 =
𝑛
𝒇 - 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑐𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑠
𝒏 - 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY

Subjective probability is the probability assigned to an

event based on subjective judgment, experience,
information, and belief.
 LEMON ORANGE GRAPE
GRAPE GRAPE

CHERRY LEMON
CHERRY LEMON
LEMON
ORANGE

LEMON GRAPE
LEMON
CHERRY
CHERRY

LEMON GRAPE
GRAPE ORANGE
1. What is the probability of selecting a cherry piece?

2. What is the probability of selecting a orange piece?

3. What is the probability of selecting a lemon piece?

4. What is the probability of selecting a grape piece?

5. If you picked 1 piece of candy out of the box which
flavor would you have the highest probability of
selecting?
6. Which flavor has the lowest probability of being
selected?
7. If you picked a piece at random would you be
more likely to select, a lemon piece or a cherry
piece?
8. What is the probability of selecting either a cherry
piece or a grape piece?
9. Your friend wants either a cherry piece or a grape
piece. If you picked a piece out randomly, which
one would you have the highest probability of
selecting?
10. If you ate 2 lemon pieces, 1 cherry pieces, 1
orange pieces and 3 grape pieces, which flavor
would you have the highest probability of selecting
next?
Any process that can be repeated under
general same conditions and the result
called outcome, can only be known after the
experiment is over.
Examples: Tossing a coin, rolling a die,
drawing a card from a deck
• An outcome is the result of a single trial of a probability
experiment, while a sample space is a set of all
possible outcomes of a probability experiment.
• Nonempty set of all possible outcomes “S”.
Experiment Outcomes Sample Space
Toss a coin once Head, Tail S = {Head, Tail}
Toss a coin twice HH,HT,TH,TT S = {HH,HT,TH,TT}
Roll a die 1,2,3,4,5,6 S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Exam result Pass, Fail S = {Pass, Fail}
Game result Win, Lose S = {Win, Lose}
 1. FINITE (DISCRETE) 2. COUNTABLY FINITE
(DISCRETE)
Example: Example:
Tossing a coin twice. Rolled a fair six-sided die
indefinitely until we observe a
three-dotted face for the first time.
𝑆 = {𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇}
Let = A be the (3) dotted face, and
B be any other face.

𝑆 = {𝐴, 𝐵𝐴, 𝐵𝐵𝐴, 𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐴, 𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐴, … }

 3. Infinite (Continuous)

Example.

An experimenter wants to know the

maximum temperature, in C at a
particular day for the month of July.

𝑆 = {30, 36, 35, … }

 Are functions or rules that associate
every outcome of “S” to a real number.
Represents random variable with
numerical value.
A coin is tossed thrice. Determine the number of heads
observed.
SAMPLE SPACE:

RANDOM VARIABLE (𝑿):

The number of heads that can be observed.

REALIZED VALUES (𝒓): {0,1, 2, 3}

 A box contains 10 identical balls, of
which 8 are black and 2 are white. An
experiment is performed by selecting
balls from the box at random and with
replacement, indefinitely until the first
white ball is selected.
SAMPLE SPACE:
𝑆 = {𝑤, 𝑏𝑤, 𝑏𝑏𝑤, 𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑤, 𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑤, … }

RANDOM VARIABLE (𝑿):

White ball selected

REALIZED VALUES (𝒓):

𝑟 = {1, 2, 3, 4, … }
SAMPLE SPACE:
𝑆 = {𝑤, 𝑏𝑤, 𝑏𝑏𝑤, 𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑤, 𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑤, … }

RANDOM VARIABLE (𝑿):

White ball selected

REALIZED VALUES (𝒓):

{1, 2, 3, 4, … }
- The probability cannot be less than 0 and
cannot be more than 1.
- The sum of all probabilities of all realized
values of random variable is 1.
LESSON I, UNIT A
 Mean Variance Standard Deviation

𝜇 = ෍ 𝑥 · 𝑃(𝑥) 𝜎 2 = ෍ 𝑥 2 · 𝑃(𝑥) − 𝜇2
𝑆𝐷 = 𝜎2
A coin is tossed thrice. Determine the number of heads
observed.
SAMPLE SPACE:

RANDOM VARIABLE (𝑿):

The number of heads that can be observed.

REALIZED VALUES (𝒓): {0,1, 2, 3}

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION:

No. of event / total number of outcome.

 Mean Variance
  [ x P( x)]
 2   [ x 2 P( x)]   2
1 3 3 1
 [(0( ))  (1( ))  (2( ))  (3( ))] 1 3 3 1 3
 [(02 ( ))  (12 ( ))  (22 ( ))  (32 ( ))]  [( )2 ]
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 2
3 12 8 9
3 6 3  [0    ]  [ ]
 0   8 8 8 4
8 8 8 24 9
 
12 8 4
 3
8 2
 
4
3

2
Standard Deviation

SD   2

3

4
SD  0.87
The RFS Electronics sells iPhone for Apple Inc. RFS usually
sells the number of iPhone on Sunday. The store manager
has established the following probability distribution for the
number of iPhone the store expects to sell on a particular
Sunday.
Mean

Variance

Standard Deviation
Mean

Variance

Standard Deviation
LESSON I, UNIT B
If the probability has only two outcomes or can be
reduced to two outcomes (the outcomes are
considered as either success or failure) these are
called binomial experiment.
Binomial formula: the probability of x success
in a binomial experiment with n trials and
probability of success P is given by the
formula:
Where:
𝑃 𝑥 = binomial probability distribution.
𝑛 = the number of trials.
𝑥 = the number of observed successes.
𝑝 = the probability of success on each trial.
𝑞 = the probability of a failure, found by 1 − 𝑝.
In a survey, 25% of the people interviewed
said they bought their refrigerator during the
last six months. If eleven people are selected
at random, find the probability that exactly six
of these people bought their refrigerator during
the last six months.
𝑃 𝑥 = binomial probability distribution.
𝑛 = 𝟏𝟏
𝑥 = 𝟔
𝑝 = 𝟐𝟓% 𝒐𝒓 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓
𝑞 = 1 – 𝑝 = 1 – 0.25 = 𝟎. 𝟕𝟓
𝑃 𝑥 = binomial probability distribution.
𝑛 = 𝟏𝟏
𝑥 = 𝟔
𝑝 = 𝟐𝟓% 𝒐𝒓 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓
𝑞 = 1 – 𝑝 = 1 – 0.25 = 𝟎. 𝟕𝟓
 11!
𝑃 6 = (0.25)6 (0.75)11−6 Therefore, there are
11 − 6 ! (6!)
39916800 2.68% probability that
𝑃 6 = (0.25)6 (0.75)5 exactly six of these
(120)(720)
39916800 1
people bought their
𝑃 6 = 0.2373046875 refrigerator during the
86400 4096
last six months.
𝑃 6 = 462 0.00005793571472
𝑃 6 = 0.0267663002
𝑃 6 = 2.68%
Suppose that we expect some independent
event to occur “µ” times over specified time
interval. The probability “x” occurrences is equal
to:
𝑥 −𝜇
𝜇 𝑒
𝑃 𝑋=𝑥 = for 𝑥 = 0, 1, 2, …
𝑥!
 𝑥 −𝜇
𝜇 𝑒
𝑃 𝑋=𝑥 = 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑥 = 0, 1, 2, …
𝑥!
where:
𝝁 = mean number of occurrences in a particular interval of
time 𝝁 = 𝒏𝒑
𝒆 = is approximately 2.71828
𝒙 = the number of occurrence (successes)
𝑷 𝒙 = the probability for a specified value of X.
Consider the case where the predetermined
average number of PUV bound to Doña Soledad
arrivals at the Heneral Plaza Station is six per 15-
minute period. Find the probability of

a. exactly 4 buses arriving in a 15-minute period;

and
b. at least 4 buses arriving in a 15-minute period.
Let the following variable be;

𝜇 = the number of bus arrivals per 15 - minute

period.

𝑥 = the actual number of bus arrivals per 15 -

minute period.
The probability that exactly 4 buses arriving in a
15-minute period is
𝑥 −𝜇
𝜇 𝑒
𝑃 𝑥=4 =
𝑥!
64 (𝑒 −6 )
=
4!
1,296(0.0024787)
=
24
= 𝟎. 𝟏𝟑𝟑𝟗
Note that in (b) 𝑷 𝒙 ≥ 𝟒 .

Therefore

𝑃 𝑥 ≥ 4 = 𝑃 𝑥 = 4 + 𝑃 𝑥 = 5 + 𝑃(𝑥 = 6)
 𝑥 −𝜇 5 −6
𝜇 𝑒 6 𝑒
𝑃 𝑥=5 = = = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟔𝟎𝟔
𝑥! 5!
𝑥 −𝜇 6 −6
𝜇 𝑒 6 𝑒
𝑃 𝑥=6 = = = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟔𝟎𝟔
𝑥! 6!
𝑃 𝑥 ≥4 =𝑃 𝑥 =4 +𝑃 𝑥 =5 +𝑃 𝑥 =6
= 0.1339 + 0.1606 + 0.1606
= 𝟎. 𝟒𝟓𝟓𝟏

Thus, the probability of at least 4 buses

arriving in a 15-minute period is 0.4551 or
45.51%.
• It is used to model finite- population.
• Samples are taken without replacement and
where the probability of successes is to be
computed.
• Success are not the same from trial to trial.
where: P( x)  S C s N S C ns

𝑵 = population size N Cn
𝒏 = sample size
𝑺 = number of successes in the population
𝒔 = number of successes in the sample
𝑵 − 𝑺 = number of failures in the population
𝒏 − 𝒔 = number of failures in the sample
𝑷 𝑿 = 𝒙 = the probability to be computed for a
specified value of X
A lot of 100 light bulb is inspected using the
following procedure: Five light bulbs are
chosen at random and tested. If all five light
up, the entire lot is accepted. Suppose the
lot contains 20 defective bulbs. What is the
probability the lot is accepted?
𝑁 = 100
𝑛= 5
𝑆 = 80
𝑠 = 5
𝑁 − 𝑆 = 20
𝑛−𝑠 = 0
 P( x)  S C s N S C ns

𝑁 = 100 N C n

𝑛= 5 80C 5 20C 0

𝑆 = 80 100C 5
𝑠 = 5 346,176,230,400 1
𝑁 − 𝑆 = 20 
1,084,140,288,000
𝑛−𝑠 = 0
 0.319309441989854
= 31.93%