MATH 224 ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS

Lesson 3: The Concept of Probability

3.1 Simple Probability

Probability theory is a mathematical modeling of the phenomenon of chance or randomness. If a coin is tossed
in a random manner, it can land heads or tails, but we do not know which of these will occur in a single toss. However,
suppose we let s be the number of times heads appears when the coin is tossed n times. As n increases, the ratio f =
s/n, called the relative frequency of the outcome, becomes more stable. If the coin is perfectly balanced, then we
expect that the coin will land heads approximately 50% of the time or, in other words, the relative frequency will
approach ½. Alternatively, assuming the coin is perfectly balanced, we can arrive at the value ½ deductively. That is,
any side of the coin is as likely to occur as the other; hence the chance of getting a head is 1 in 2 which means the
probability of getting heads is ½. Although the specific outcome on any one toss is unknown, the behavior over the
long run is determined. This stable long-run behavior of random phenomena forms the basis of probability theory.

There are two important procedures by means of which we can estimate the probability of an event.

1. Classical Approach – If an event can occur in S different ways out of a total on T possible ways, all of which
are equally likely, then the probability of the event is S/T.

𝑺 𝑺𝒖𝒄𝒄𝒆𝒔𝒔𝒇𝒖𝒍 𝑶𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔
P(E) = 𝑻 = 𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝑵𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝑷𝒐𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝑶𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆
2. Frequency Approach – If after n repetitions of an experiment, where n is very large, an event is observed
to occur in s of these, then the probability of the event is s/n. This is also called the empirical probability
of the event.

Note: The probability for any event must be between 0 and 1 only.

Basic Principles and Terms:

Statistical Experiments – is the process of measuring or observing an activity for the purpose of collecting data.
Rolling a pair of dice would be considered an experiment. An outcome is a particular result of an experiment. For
example, if you were to roll a pair of threes, then the outcome would be 3+3=6. All statistical experiments have three
things in common. (1) The experiment can have more than one possible outcome. (2) Each possible outcome can be
specified in advance. (3) The outcome of the experiment depends on chance.

Examples of Statistical Experiment are tossing a coin, rolling a die, drawing a card from a deck of playing cards,
etc.

Trial – is a repetition of an experiment.

Outcome – is the result of each trial.

Sample Space – the set of all possible outcomes. In the example of two standard dice, the smallest possible
outcome would be rolling a pair of ones (1+1=2); the largest outcome would be a pair of sixes (6+6=12). Thus, the
sample space for the experiment would be {2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12}.

Sample Point – is an element of a sample space.

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 MATH 224 ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS
Event – is a subset of a sample space (one or more sample points). For instance, one event could be rolling a
total of two, three, four, or five with a pair of dice. Usually, your task in a probability problem is to determine the
likelihood that a particular event will occur with respect to the sample space (for example, identifying how often you
will roll a total of two, three, four, or five given two standard dice).

Types of events:

1. Mutually Exclusive Events – two events are mutually exclusive if they have no sample points in common.
2. Independent Events – two events are independent when the occurrence of one does not affect the
probability of the occurrence of the other.
3. Dependent Events – two events are dependent when the occurrence of one affect the probability of the
other.

We can also be interested in describing new events from combinations of existing events. Because events are
subsets, we can use basic set operations such as unions, intersections, and complements to form other events of
interest. Some of the basic set operations are summarized below in terms of events:

• The union of two events is the event that consists of all outcomes that are contained in either of the
two events. We denote the union as E1 ∪ E2.
• The intersection of two events is the event that consists of all outcomes that are contained in both of
the two events. We denote the intersection as E1 ∩ E2.
• The complement of an event in a sample space is the set of outcomes in the sample space that are not
in the event. We denote the complement of the event E as E′. The EC is also used in other literature to
denote the complement.

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 MATH 224 ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS
Sample Problems: (Simple Probability)

1. A card is drawn from a deck of 52 cards. (a) what is the probability that it is a diamond (b) what is the probability
that it is a face card.

2. One ball is drawn at random from a box containing 3 red balls, 2 white balls, and 4 black balls. Determine the
probability that it is (a) red, (b) not red, (c) white.

3. Determine the probability of throwing a total of 8 in a single throw with two dice, each of faces is numbered 1 to
6.

4. A man is dealt a poker hand (5 cards). What is the probability that all 5 cards are of the same suit?

5. Three cards are drawn from a pack of 52, each card being replaced before the next one is drawn. Compute the
probability that all are (a) spades, (b) aces, (c) red cards.

6. A die is constructed so that a 1 or 2 occurs twice as often as a 5 which occurs three times as often as a 3,4, or 6. If
the die is tossed once, find the probability that (a) the number is even (b) the number is a perfect square (c) the
number is greater than 4.

7. A coin is tossed twice. What is the probability that at least 1 head occurs?

8. A coin is tossed three times. What is the probability that not all three tosses are the same?

9. In a poker hand consisting of 5 cards, find the probability of holding 2 aces and 3 jacks?

10. Two cards are drawn at random from an ordinary deck of 52 cards. Find the probability that (a) both are spades
(b) one is a spade and one is a heart.

11. A box containing 50 wooden balls numbered 1 through 50. If one ball is drawn at random from the box, what is
the probability that the number on the ball is a prime number?

12. Three light bulbs are chosen at random from 15 bulbs of which 5 are defective. Find the probability that (a) none
is defective (b) exactly one is defective.

13. Two cards are selected at random from 10 cards numbered 1 to 10. Find the probability P that the sum is odd if
the two cards are drawn together.

14. Two integers from 0 to 10 are selected simultaneously and at random. What is the probability that they will be
both odd?

15. If each coded item in a catalogue begins with 3 distinct letters followed by 4 distinct non-zero digits. Find the
probability of randomly selecting one of these coded items with the first letter a vowel and the last digit even.

16. The students in a class are selected at random, one after the other, for an examination. Find the probability that
the boys and girls in the class alternate if the class consists of 4 boys and 3 girls.

17. A man holds 2 of a total of 20 tickets in a lottery. If there are 2 winning tickets, determine the probability that he
has (a) both (b) neither.

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