THE CONTEMPORARY WORLD

(Lecture Note THREE)

DEMOGRAPHY
- This refers to the study of statistics of birth, deaths, income, incidence of diseases which illustrates the
changing structure of human population. It is all about the study of population. According to
Encyclopedia Britannica, this refers to the study of human population, especially with reference to size
and density, distribution, and vital statistics.
- It is derived out of two words, demos meaning people and graphic meaning to describe and thus is
known as the study or description of population.
- Demographic data is often collected in the form that is quantifiable, such as census, or survey.

Importance of Demography
1. Economy
a. Population studies allow us to see how closely the economy’s growth rate meets the
population’s growth rate.
b. If the population grows at a great rate, the economy will develop at a slower pace.
c. The government can take necessary measures to restrict population increase and stimulate
economic development.
2. Society
a. When the population grows rapidly, the society is confronted with numerous issues. Basic
utilities such as water, electricity, transportation and communications, public health, and
education are all affected.
b. Problems of migration and urbanization are also linked to the expanding population, resulting
in an increase in law-and-order issues.
c. As a result, the government and non-governmental social organizations can take necessary
action to address them.
3. Economic Planning
a. Data on the current pattern in population growth aid planners in developing policies for the
country’s economic plans.
b. They are kept in mind while setting agricultural and industrial product targets, as well as social
and fundamental services such as schools and other educational institutions, hospitals, housing,
power, transportation, and so on.
c. Planners also utilize population data to forecast future fertility patters and design policy
strategies to reduce birth rate.
4. Administration
a. Government administrators can benefit from population studies as well.
b. Almost all social and economic concerns in underdeveloped countries are linked to population
growth.
c. The administrator must address and provide answers to the issues that arise as a result of
population expansion.
5. Political System
a. Demographic knowledge is important for a democratic political system to function.
b. The election commission of a country demarcates constituencies based on census numbers
pertaining to various locations.
c. After each election, the number of voters is increased to see how many people have moved in
from other parts of the country.

Relationship of Globalization and Population

- Globalization affected population in several ways like technological advancement and drastically
changed global population in terms of fertility rates and the life expectancy. Migration also spread
diseases like HIV and COVID-19.

Transition of World’s Demography

- Globalization has affected population dynamics in several ways as demography has always been
affected by technology particularly in the explosion of contraceptive technology and improvement of
public health. (La Croix, Mason, and Abe, 2003)
- The size, growth, and age structure of national populations also affect globalization as population
change might influence the movement of people, products, and investment capital among countries.
- Favorable changes in population, and population structure can also give positive influences in terms of
economic growth.
THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL

The demographic transition model or the DTM portrays how a country moves from high birth and
death rates to low birth and death rates as it becomes increasingly industrialized. It describes the changes in a
population (age structure, fertility rate) brought about by technology, education and economic development.
This demographic transition is accompanied by changes in other variables such as urbanization, life
expectancy and more.
Paul Davis (1965) defined demographic transition as the transformation of a society from high fertility
and mortality rates to low fertility and mortality rates as part of the economic and social development process.
The original model which consists of four models was created by Warren Thompson in 1929, and it was later
developed by other demographers to include a fifth stage.

Warren Thompson DTM (1929)

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL STATES

Stage ONE: High Fluctuating

In this pre-industrial stage, birth and death rates are high, because the number of births and deaths are
roughly equal, and the population is stable. Birth rates were quite high due to several reasons: there was no
family planning or use of contraception. The children were an essential part of the household and raising them
did not cost much money as there was no education expense.
Death rates were high due to famines and high levels of diseases. There was also lack of sanitation and
health care. A high death rate feeds back to the birth rate – if the possibility of death is greater, people want
more children to increase the chances of survival. Hence, at this stage, the population is essentially determined
by the food supply – any changes in the latter would directly translate into changes in the former. Until the 18th
century, all human populations were at this stage.

Stage TWO: Early Expanding

In this stage, there is a sharp decline in the death rate causing rapid population growth, and this
decline is caused by changes in the food supply and healthcare. Selective breeding, crop rotation, and other
farming techniques increase the food supply. Healthcare also improves through better food handling, water
supply, and personal hygiene.
There is a change in the population structure. In Stage ONE, most deaths occur in the first few years of
life. When the death rate declines in the Stage TWO, it means the increasing survival of children. Hence, the
population becomes more youthful and the bottom of the age pyramid widens because of the large number of
infants, children, and teenagers. These young people then start to have families of their own, leading to an
increase in the population.
In Europe, Stage TWO began in the late 18th century by virtue of the Agriculture Revolution. For
developing countries, the decline in death rates started in the 20th century. (Yemen, Afghanistan, Sub-Saharan
Africa – currently at Stage TWO.)

Stage THREE: Late Expanding

Stage THREE sees the birth rate declining as better socioeconomic factors make people have fewer
children, slowing down population growth. This happens because of improved economic conditions, better
access to contraceptives, and women getting education/work opportunities.
With industrialization comes urbanization, which leads to increase in wages but also a change in the
values towards having children. The fertility rate also decreases because women begin to get educated and join
the workforce (Haviland, 2018). Examples of countries in this stage include Malaysia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia.

Stage FOUR: Low Fluctuating

Both birth and death rates are low, causing the population to stabilize. There is low birth rate because
people are now more thoughtful about having children, women have greater opportunities to be independent,
and there are easily accessible contraceptives. Death rates are also low due to improved standards of living
advanced healthcare, and sufficient food supply. This makes both birth and death rates low and roughly equal.
Resulting in little to no population growth.
In 2015, Bangladesh, Argentina, India were included in this stage.

Stage FIVE: Declining

This stage sees the fertility falling below the replacement level which causes a decline in population. It
was mentioned earlier in this material that previously, there were only four stages of demographic transition.
Now, scholars have proposed a fifth stage stating that fertility rate further decreases at this point. However,
there are contradictions, stating that is increasing. Simply stated, the birth rate falls to such a point that the
population starts to decline because death rate exceeds the birth rate. This is currently happening in countries
like Japan, Italy, and Germany.
Reasons for low birth rate:
1. A rise in individualism
2. Greater financial independence of women
3. Lack of resources for future generations
4. An increase in non-traditional lifestyles

NOTE: Replacement level fertility refers to the level of fertility at which a population exactly replaces itself from one
generation to the next, without migration.
IMPACT OF GLOBALIZATION ON POPULATION
(Sumner J. La Croix, Andrew Mason, Shigeyuki Abe)

Globalization has both direct and indirect effects on population. The movement of people around the
world has accelerated the spread of disease, most notably of HIV/AIDS. The proliferation of technology has
helped usher in a global convergence in birth and death rates, particularly were combined with rapid
economic growth. Japan and Singapore now rank number one and two in the world in
life expectancy, while South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Hong Kong, and Singapore all have fertility rates lower
than the United States. These Asian countries owe a large part of their success to their efforts to integrate
themselves into the global economy.
Relatively poor countries such as India and the Philippines have managed to substantially increase life
expectancies and lower birth rates. The demographic gap between rich and poor countries has diminished
much more rapidly than the economic gap.