Advanced Engineering

Mathematics
Instructor: Dr. Madiha Liaqat
Outline

 Discrete Random Variable

 Probability Distribution
 Mean
 Standard Deviation
 Binomial Distribution
Random Variable
Random Variable

 It is often the case that a number is naturally associated to the

outcome of a random experiment: the number of boys in a
three-child family, the number of defective light bulbs in a case
of 100 bulbs, the length of time until the next customer arrives
at the drive-through window at a bank.

 Such a number varies from trial to trial of the corresponding

experiment, and does so in a way that cannot be predicted with
certainty; hence, it is called a random variable.
Definition

A random variable is a numerical quantity that is

generated by a random experiment.

 We will denote random variables by capital letters,

such as X or Z, and the actual values that they can
take by lowercase letters, such as x and z.
Four Random Variables
Explanation
 In the second example, the three dots indicates that every counting
number is a possible value for X. Although it is highly unlikely, for
example, that it would take 50 tosses of the coin to observe heads
for the first time, nevertheless it is conceivable, hence the number
50 is a possible value. The set of possible values is infinite, but is
still at least countable, in the sense that all possible values can be
listed one after another.
 In the last two examples, by way of contrast, the possible values
cannot be individually listed, but take up a whole interval of
numbers.
 In the fourth example, since the light bulb could conceivably
continue to shine indefinitely, there is no natural greatest value for
its lifetime, so we simply place the symbol of infinity at the right
end point.
Discrete vs Continuous

 A random variable is called discrete if it has either a

finite or a countable number of possible values.

 A random variable is called continuous if its possible

values contain a whole interval of numbers.
Practice

Classify each random variable as either discrete or

continuous.
 The number of arrivals at an emergency room between
midnight and 6:00 a.m.
 The weight of a box of cereal labeled “18 ounces.”
 The duration of the next outgoing telephone call from a
business office.
 The number of kernels of popcorn in a 1-pound container.
 The number of applicants for a job.
Practice

Classify each random variable as either discrete or

continuous.
 The time between customers entering a checkout lane at
a retail store.
 The weight of refuse on a truck arriving at a landfill.
 The number of passengers in a passenger vehicle on a
highway at rush hour.
 The number of clerical errors on a medical chart.
 The number of accident-free days in one month at a
factory.
Practice
Classify each random variable as either discrete or
continuous.
 The number of boys in a randomly selected three-child
family.
 The temperature of a cup of coffee served at a
restaurant.
 The number of no-shows for every 100 reservations made
with a commercial airline.
 The number of vehicles owned by a randomly selected
household.
 The average amount spent on electricity each July by a
randomly selected household in a certain state.
Practice

Identify the set of possible values for each random variable.

(Make a reasonable estimate based on experience, where
necessary.)
 The number of heads in two tosses of a coin.
 The average weight of newborn babies born in a particular
county one month.
 The amount of liquid in a 12-ounce can of soft drink.
 The number of coins that match when three coins are
tossed at once.
Probability distribution for discrete random
variable
Probability Distribution

 Associated to each possible value x of a discrete random

variable X is the probability P(X) that X will take the
value x in one trial of the experiment.
Definition

 The probability distribution of a discrete random

variable X is a list of each possible value of X together
with the probability that X takes that value in one trial
of the experiment.
Contdd….

 The probabilities in the probability distribution of a

random variable X must satisfy the following two
conditions:
Example

 A fair coin is tossed twice. Let X be the number of heads

that are observed.

1. Construct the probability distribution of X.

2. Find the probability that at least one head is observed.

Solution (part 1)
Solution (part 2)
Example

 A pair of fair dice is rolled. Let X denote the sum of the

number of dots on the top faces.

1. Construct the probability distribution of X.

2. Find P(X ≥ 9).

3. Find the probability that X takes an even value.

Solution

 Sample Space
Solution(part 1)
Solution(part 2)
Solution(part 3)
The Mean and Standard Deviation of a Discrete Random
Variable
Definition--Mean

 The mean (also called the expected value) of a discrete

random variable X is the number

 The mean of a random variable may be interpreted as the

weighted average of the possible values that X can take,
each value being weighted according to the probability of
that event occurring.
Example
Definition--Variance

The variance of a random variable tells us something

about the spread of the possible values of the
variable.
Definition—Standard Deviation

 The variance and standard deviation of a discrete random variable X may

be interpreted as measures of the variability of the values assumed by
the random variable in repeated trials of the experiment. The units on
the standard deviation match those of X.
Example
Example & Solution
Example & Solution
Practice
Practice
Practice
 A researcher conducted a study to investigate how a
newborn baby’s crying after midnight affects the sleep of
the baby's mother. The researcher randomly selected 50
new mothers and asked how many times they were
awakened by their newborn baby's crying after midnight
per week. Two mothers were awakened zero times, 11
mothers were awakened one time, 23 mothers were
awakened two times, nine mothers were awakened three
times, four mothers were awakened four times, and one
mother was awakened five times. Find the expected value
of the number of times a newborn baby's crying wakes its
mother after midnight per week. Calculate the standard
deviation of the variable as well.
Solution
Practice

 Let X denote the number of boys in a randomly selected

three-child family. Assuming that boys and girls are
equally likely, construct the probability distribution of X.

 Let X denote the number of times a fair coin lands heads

in three tosses. Construct the probability distribution of X.
For three children the possible outcomes
are,
BBB=3
BBG=2
BGB=2
BGG=1
GBB=2
GBG=1
GGB=1
GGG=0

So the probability distribution:

0, 1/8
1, 3/8
2, 3/8
3, 1/8

Same for both questions

Binomial Distribution
Introduction

 The experiment of tossing a fair coin three times and the

experiment of observing the genders according to birth order of
the children in a randomly selected three-child family are
completely different, but the random variables that count the
number of heads in the coin toss and the number of boys in the
family (assuming the two genders are equally likely) are the
same random variable, the one with probability distribution
Introduction

 What is common to the two experiments is that

we perform three identical and independent
trials of the same action, each trial has only
two outcomes (heads or tails, boy or girl), and
the probability of success is the same number,
0.5, on every trial.

 The random variable that is generated is called

the binomial random variable with
parameters n = 3 and p = 0.5. This is just one
case of a general situation.
Definition

Suppose a random experiment has the following characteristics.

 There are n identical and independent trials of a common procedure.

 There are exactly two possible outcomes for each trial, one termed
“success” and the other “failure.”

 The probability of success on any one trial is the same number p.

Then the discrete random variable X that counts the number of successes in
the n trials is the binomial random variable with parameters n and p. We
also say that X has a binomial distribution with parameters n and p.
There are three characteristics of
a binomial experiment:
 There are a fixed number of trials. Think of trials as repetitions of an
experiment. The letter n denotes the number of trials.
 There are only two possible outcomes, called success and failure, for
each trial. The outcome that we are measuring is defined as a success,
while the other outcome is defined as a failure. The letter p denotes
the probability of a success on one trial, and q denotes the probability
of a failure on one trial. p + q = 1.
 The n trials are independent and are repeated using identical
conditions. Because the n trials are independent, the outcome of one
trial does not help in predicting the outcome of another trial. Another
way of saying this is that for each individual trial, the probability, p, of
a success and probability, q, of a failure remain the same.
Example 1: Toss a fair coin once and
record the result.
 This is a binomial experiment since it meets all three characteristics. The
number of trials n = 1. There are only two outcomes, a head or a tail, of
each trial. We can define a head as a success if we are measuring number of
heads. For a fair coin, the probabilities of getting head or tail are both .5.
Both p and q remain the same from trial to trial. This experiment is also
called a Bernoulli trial, named after Jacob Bernoulli who, in the late 1600s,
studied such trials extensively. Any experiment that has characteristics two
and three and where n = 1 is called a Bernoulli trial. A binomial experiment
takes place when the number of successes is counted in one or more
Bernoulli trials.
Example 2: Randomly guess a multiple choice
question has A, B, C and D four options.

 This is a binomial experiment since it meets all three characteristics.

The number of trials n = 1. There are only two outcomes, guess
correctly or guess wrong, of each trial. We can define guess correctly
as a success. For a random guess (you have no clue at all), the
probability of guessing correct should be ¼ because there are four
options and only one option is correct. So, p=1/4 and q=1-p.
Both p and q remain the same from trial to trial. This experiment is
also a Bernoulli trial. It meets the characteristics two and three
and n = 1.
Example 3: Toss a fair coin five times
and record the result.

 This is a binomial experiment since it meets all three

characteristics. The number of trials n = 5. There are only two
outcomes, head or tail, of each trial. If we define head as a
success, then p = q = 0.5. Both p and q remain the same for
each trial. Since n = 5, this experiment is not a Bernoulli trial
although it meets the characteristics two and three.

Bernoulli deals with the outcome of the single trial of the event, whereas
Binomial deals with the outcome of the multiple trials of the single event.
Example 4: Randomly guess 10 multiple
choice questions in an exam. Each question
has A, B, C and D four options.
 This is a binomial experiment since it meets all three
characteristics. The number of trials n = 10. There are only two
outcomes, guess correctly or guess wrong, of each trial. We can
define guess correctly as a success. As we explained in example
2, p=1/4, q=1-p. Both p and q remain the same for each guess.
Since n = 10, this experiment is not a Bernoulli trial.
Binomial Experiment??

 Example 5: Randomly select two balls from a jar with five

red balls and five blue balls without replacement. This

means we select the first ball, and then without returning

the selected ball into the jar, we will select the second

ball.

This is not a binomial experiment since the third

characteristic is not met.
Binomial Experiment??

 Example 6: Toss a fair coin until a head appears.

This is not a binomial experiment since the first

characteristic is not met.
Bernoulli trials??

 Eight balls are drawn from a bag containing 10 white and

10 black balls. Predict whether the trials are Bernoulli
trials if the ball drawn is replaced and not replaced.
Solution

 For the first case, when a ball is drawn with replacement, the
probability of success (say, white ball) is p=10/20=1/2, which is
the same for all eight trials (draws). Hence, the trial involving
the drawing of balls with replacements are said to be Bernoulli
trials.
 For the second case, when a ball is drawn without
replacement, the probability of success (say, white ball) varies
with the number of trials. For example, for the first trial, the
probability of success, p=10/20. For the second trial, the
probability of success is p=9/19, which is not equal to the first
trial. Hence, the trials involving the drawing of balls without
replacements are not Bernoulli’s trials.
Thank You!