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Probability-Continuous Random-Variables

Probability: Continuous Random Variables

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
155 views101 pages

Probability-Continuous Random-Variables

Probability: Continuous Random Variables

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Copyright
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ECE 603

Probability and Random


Processes
Lessons 7-9
Chapter 4
Continuous and Mixed Random Variables

© 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.


Objectives
• Explore tools used and methods used to work with continuous random variables.
• Examine mixed random variables that are mixtures of discrete and continuous
random variables.

Chapter 4 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.


2
Rationale
• Consider that a continuous random variable X has a range in the form of an
interval or a union of non-overlapping interview on the real line. This leads to
the need for new tools to help you focus on continuous random variables.
• The theory of continuous random variables is analogous to the theory of
discrete random variables. So, you may take any formula about discrete
random variables and replace sums with integrals to come up with the
corresponding formula for continuous random variables.
• Chapter 4 focuses on these relationships.

Chapter 4 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.


3
Prior Learning
• Basic Concepts
• Counting Methods
• Random Variables
• Access to the online textbook: https://www.probabilitycourse.com/

Chapter 4 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.


4
Continuous Random Variables
So far, we have discussed discrete random variables:
For a discrete random variable , , is a countable set, e.g.,

the CDF , looks like a series of steps with jumps at

Chapter 4 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.


5
Discrete Random Variables: PMF & CDF
The jump at is given by the PMF

Chapter 4 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.


6
Cumulative Distributive Function (CDF)
Recall the general properties of a CDF:
1)

2)

Chapter 4 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.


7
Continuous Random Variables
If is not countable then is not a discrete random variable.
Example.
Remember: etc.
Example.
• : Lifetime of a light bulb,
• : Voltage across a resistor,

Chapter 4 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.


8
Continuous Random Variables
Now suppose we have a continuous function having those properties – for
example:
• A function like this is also a valid CDF
. – that is, it can also represent
. for some random variable .

Chapter 4 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.


9
Continuous Random Variables
•Definition.
  A random variable having a CDF that is a continuous
function for all in is said to be a continuous random variable.

Example. Let be an interval in the real line (where and are real
numbers with ). Let be a number chosen at random from that
interval.
“Chosen at random” means: If , then

Chapter 4 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.


10
Continuous Random Variables
Let’s find the CDF
a)

b)

c)

Chapter 4 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.


11
Continuous Random Variables
In this case, is called a random variable.

Chapter 4 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.


12
Continuous Random Variables
Example. Consider a line of length 1, i.e., . Place a dot at random on the
line.
Location of the dot,

a) What is

b) What is

c) For , what is

d) Obtain the CDF of .

Chapter 4 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.


13
Continuous Random Variables

e) What is ? why?

Chapter 4 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.


14
Continuous Random Variables
• For a discrete random variable: the rate of increase in the CDF is
characterized by the PMF - that is, by the locations and sizes of the
jumps in the CDF.

• What characterizes the rate of increase for a continuous function?

The derivative of the function

Chapter 4 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.


15
Continuous Random Variables
• If the CDF is a continuous function, then is said to be a continuous
random variable.
• PMF is Not well-defined for continuous random variables. Instead, we define
probability density function (pdf).

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16
Probability Density Function (PDF)
Definition. pdf:

Remember that,

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17
Probability Density Function (PDF)

Definition. Consider a continuous random variable with an absolutely


continuous CDF . Then we have

is called the probability density function (PDF) of .

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18
Probability Density Function (PDF)
Theorem.

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19
Probability Density Function (PDF)
Example. Say that .

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20
Probability Density Function (PDF)
Back to our dot and line example:

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21
Probability Density Function (PDF)
Comparison with discrete random variable:

discrete continuous

If we integrate over the entire real line, we must get 1, i.e.,

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22
Probability Density Function (PDF)
In math: A density function for a quantity is a non-negative function that is
integrated to give that quantity.
Let’s look at the properties of a PDF:
1) Since is monotone non-decreasing, its derivative must satisfy

2)

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23
Probability Density Function (PDF)
3) In general:

4) We can extend the property 3 to:

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24
Probability Density Function (PDF)
• So, for a discrete random variable having range to find
. , we sum the PMF over the points

• For a continuous random variable, to find , we integrate the PDF


over the set .

Chapter 4 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.


25
Probability Density Function (PDF)
Example. Let be a continuous random variable with the following PDF

a) Find .
b) Find .
c) Find .

Chapter 4 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.


26
Probability Density Function (PDF)

Important note: is not equal to . In fact, for a continuous


random variable we have for every point . Also, it is
possible in general to have for some values of .

Chapter 4 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.


27
Expected Value and Variance

So, we get:

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28
Expected Value and Variance
Law of the unconscious statistician (LOTUS) for continuous random variables:

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29
Expected Value and Variance
Remember that the variance of any random variable is defined as

So for a continuous random variable, we can write

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30
Expected Value and Variance
Example. In a medical ultrasound system, the energy in a pulse scattered by
diffuse reflectors is a random variable having a pdf of the form:

a) Find the value of

b) Find

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31
Expected Value and Variance
c) Find

d) Find

e) Let , find

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32
Functions of Continuous Random Variables

Suppose that is a continuous random variable having CDF and


PDF . g .: Let
R® R be some function, and let

Since is a random variable, so is . We already know that we can find


by

Chapter 4 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.


33
Functions of Continuous Random Variables
Question: How do we find the CDF and PDF for ?

Usually: It is easier to first find the CDF for , and then take the derivative to
find the PDF.

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34
Functions of Continuous Random Variables
Example. Suppose that and .
Find the CDF and PDF of .
Note that:

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35
Functions of Continuous Random Variables
Example. Suppose that and .
Find the CDF and PDF of .
Note that:

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36
Functions of Continuous Random Variables
There’s another approach called the Method of Transformations that
sometimes gives a quicker way of finding directly from .

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37
Functions of Continuous Random Variables
If is a continuous random variable and is a function of , then
itself is a random variable.
Steps:

1) Find

2) Find CDF of

3) Find

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38
Functions of Continuous Random Variables
Example. Now suppose that and
Find CDF and PDF of

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39
Summary of Continuous Random Variable

• PDF:

• Expected Value:

• LOTUS:

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40
Summary of Continuous Random Variable
Definition. Consider a continuous random variable with an absolutely
continuous CDF . The function defined by

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41
Summary of Continuous Random Variable
Consider a continuous random variable with PDF . We have

1)

2)

3)

4) More generally, for a set ,

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42
Summary of Continuous Random Variable
Discrete RVs Continuous RVs
PMF PDF

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43
Summary of Continuous Random Variable
Functions of Continuous RVs:

Steps:

1)

2)

Read method of Transformations (4.1.3).

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44
Special Distributions
• Uniform Distribution:

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45
Special Distributions
Example. Let

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46
Special Distributions
• Exponential Distribution:

Where denote the unit step function.

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47
Special Distributions
We find the CDF using the equation

So

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48
Special Distributions
Example. CDF of

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49
Special Distributions
Expected value

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50
Special Distributions

Thus, we obtain

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51
Special Distributions
If , then

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52
Special Distributions
If is exponential with parameter , then is a memoryless random
variable, that is

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53
Special Distributions
Proof:

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54
Special Distributions
Exponential random variables are often used to model times between arrivals
at service centers (these are called interarrival times) – the memoryless
property says that no matter how long you have waited for an arrival ( ),
the probability that you will have to wait for more than more time instants is
always (that is, it doesn’t depend on ).

Chapter 4 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.


55
Special Distributions
• Normal (Gaussian) Distribution:
The normal distribution is by far the most important probability distribution.
One of the main reasons for that is the Central Limit Theorem (CLT).

Chapter 4 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.


56
Special Distributions
As we’ll see later: The Central Limit Theorem says that random variables that
are formed as sums of many independent random variables have distributions
that are approximately Gaussian (e.g., the random voltage caused by electronic
noise that results from the summed contributions of a very large number of
randomly-located charge carriers).

Chapter 4 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.


57
Special Distributions
• Standard normal random variable:

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58
Special Distributions
Expected value of the standard normal:

Since is and odd function.

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59
Special Distributions
Variance of the standard normal:

Integration by parts.

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60
Special Distributions
CDF of the standard normal: The CDF of the standard normal distribution is
denoted by the function.

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61
Special Distributions
Here are some properties of the function:

1)

2)

3)

4)

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62
Special Distributions
The standard normal CDF can’t be evaluated in closed form (except at a
few specific values of ), but numerical approximations are widely available
(e.g., the normcdf command in MATLAB).

Chapter 4 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.


63
Special Distributions
• General Normal random variables:

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64
Special Distributions
• General Normal random variables:

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65
Special Distributions
CDF and PDF of Normal random variables ( ):

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66
Special Distributions
If ,

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67
Special Distributions
Example. PDF (top) and CDF (bottom) of random variable (left) and
. random variable (right):

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68
Special Distributions
Example. Say that , find

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69
Special Distributions
Example. The IQ of randomly selected individuals is often assumed to follow a
Normal distribution with mean and standard deviation . Find
the probability that a randomly selected individual has an IQ:
a) Above 140
b) Between 120 and 130
c) Find the value of such that 99% of the population has IQ at least .

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70
Special Distributions
Note: In MATLAB, the command calculates

• So, for example: If and we want to calculate


we can use the command:

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71
Special Distributions
Example. Suppose that . Then:

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72
Special Distributions

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73
Special Distributions
• So, the probability that a Gaussian random variable takes a value within 1
standard deviation from its mean is 0.6827.

• The probability that a Gaussian random variable takes a value within 3


standard deviations from its mean is 0.9973.

Chapter 4 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.


74
Special Distributions
Theorem. If , and , where , then
, where

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75
Special Distributions
Example. Suppose that , and let .
Find

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76
Gamma Distribution
Gamma function:

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77
Gamma Distribution
Gamma Distribution:

If

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78
Gamma Distribution
If are independent, then

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79
Mixed Random Variables
We will:
1) Define PDF (generalized PDF) for discrete random variables by using the
delta function.
2) Introduce mixed random variables.

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80
Mixed Random Variables

CDF for discrete RVs

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81
Mixed Random Variables

Idea: Define the “derivative” of and that we can extend the


PDF to the discrete RVs.

delta function

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82
Mixed Random Variables
Delta function:
Where is small.

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83
Mixed Random Variables

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84
Mixed Random Variables
Lemma. Let be a continuous function. We have

Proof:

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85
Mixed Random Variables
Example. Let

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86
Mixed Random Variables
Definition: Properties of the delta function
We define the delta function  as an object with the following properties:

1)

2) , where is the unit step function.

3) for any

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87
Mixed Random Variables
4) For any and any function that is continuous over ,
we have

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88
Mixed Random Variables
Discrete Random Variable

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89
Mixed Random Variables
generalized PDF

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90
Mixed Random Variables
For a discrete random variable with range and PMF
, we define the (generalized) probability density function (PDF) as

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91
Orchestrated Conversation:
Mixed Random Variables

Is it true ?

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92
Mixed Random Variables

Example.

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93
Mixed Random Variables
Random variables:
 Discrete
 Continuous
 Mixed random variable

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94
Mixed Random Variables
The (generalized) PDF of a mixed random variable can be written in the form

Continuous
Discrete

where , and does not contain any delta


functions. Furthermore, we have

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95
Mixed Random Variables
Example. Let

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96
Mixed Random Variables
a) Find the CDF of .
b) Find the generalized PDF of .
c) Find and .

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97
Mixed Random Variables
So mixed random variable:

Discrete part Continuous part

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98
Orchestrated Conversation:
Mixed Random Variables

Example. Let
a) Find and .

b) Find .

c) Find .

d) Find and .

Chapter 4 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.


99
Post-work for Lesson
• Complete homework assignment for Lessons 7-9: HW#4 and HW#5

Go to the online classroom for details.

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100
To Prepare for the Next Lesson
• Read Chapter 5 in your online textbook:
https://www.probabilitycourse.com/chapter5/5_1_0_joint_distributions.php
• Complete the Pre-work for Lessons 10-13.

Visit the online classroom for details.

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101

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