Data and Probability

Starbucks
• Coffee Type: • Coffee Size

– Standard – Short
– Dark Roast – Tall
– Light Roast – Grande
– Decaffeinated – Venti
– Half-caffeinated
• Sugar • Milk
– None – Nonfat
– Regular – Lowfat
– Equal – Regular
– Splenda – Half & half
– Sweet & Low – Soy
Counting Principle
• We MULTIPLY the number of each
option when ALL the options are
possible.
• Thus, the Starbucks problem results in
5 x 4 x 5 x 5 = 500 ways to have your
coffee!
Clothing Example
• If I have 3 different shirts (red, blue,
green), 2 pair of pants (black, grey) and
can wear a hat or go hatless, how many
outfits do I have?
Clothing Example
• Red/Black/Hat, Red/Black/Hatless,
Red/Grey/Hat, Red/Grey/Hatless
• Blue/Black/Hat, Blue/Black/Hatless,
Blue/Grey/Hat, Blue/Grey/Hatless
• Green/Black/Hat, Green/Black/Hatless,
Green/Grey/Hat, Green/Grey/Hatless
• This list is called the Sample Space, in this case
we have 3 x 2 x 2 = 12 outfits in our Sample
Space
Tree Diagram
Red Blue Green
Black Grey Black Grey Black Grey
Hat Hatless Hat Hatless Hat Hatless
Hat Hatless Hat Hatless Hat

Hatless
If we count the bottom row, we will have the number of

possible outcomes. In this case we have 12.
Key Vocabulary
• Sample Space is the set of all possible
outcomes.
• It is shown most often as a list or a
tree diagram.
• Work in pairs by seating
• Each person will fill out a table and try
to find as many patterns as possible!!!
• Circle = pizza
Sausage = blue cubes
Pineapple = yellow cubes
Pepperoni = red cubes
Mushrooms = purple cubes
Hot Peppers = orange cubes
11.1.3 - Permutations
• Key Skill: WWBAT calculate the number
of possibilities in a given situation using
factorials.
How Many Possibilities?
• If 3 students walk into a classroom
with three open desks, in how many
different ways might they arrange
themselves?
themselves?
– 6 possible ways
• How about 4 students and 4 desks?
themselves?
– 6 possible ways
– 24 possible ways
themselves?
– 6 possible ways
Factorial
• The factorial of a number is the
product of all positive integers
less than or equal to n.
• The symbol for factorial is !
• For example, 5! = 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x
1, or 120.
Key Vocabulary
• Permutation is an arrangement of
values into a particular order.
• Thus, “how many permutations?”

becomes the most often asked
question.
Probability
• What is the probability of one particular
order coming up in the 5 desk problem?
• What is the probability of one student

sitting at one particular desk in the 5
desk problem?
Probability
• What is the probability of one particular
order coming up in the 5 desk problem?
1 in 120
• What is the probability of one student
sitting at one particular desk in the 5
desk problem?
1 in 5
Classwork
• Pages 587-588 #9-20
– Start at TOP of page 587
– Only 12 of 24 possibilities are listed, you
must list the rest
Permutations (cont.)
• Key Skill: WWBAT use permutation to
solve more complex counting
problems.
Example
• How many permutations are there of
medal winners if an Olympic race has
ten runners?
Example
• How many permutations are there of
medal winners if an Olympic race has
ten runners?
10 x 9 x 8 = 720
Example
• How many unique ways can 4 students
sit at 8 desks?
Example
• How many unique ways can 4 students
sit at 8 desks?
8 x 7 x 6 x 5 = 1,680
Example
• In how many different ways can I
arrange the letters in the word “desk”?
Example
• In how many ways can I arrange the
letters in the word “desk”?
4! or 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 24
More Complex Example
letters in the word “timing”?
More Complex Example
letters in the word “timing”?
– The answer 6! overstates the number
because one couldn’t tell the difference
between tiimng and tiimng because the
word has two of the letter ‘i’.
– We must divide 6! by 2! to get 360.
More Examples
• Try the word “choose” and the word
“runners”.
More Examples
• Try the word “choose” and the word
“runners”.
– “choose” would be 6! / 2! = 360
– “runners” would be
Challenge
• Try the word “Mississippi”.
Challenge
• Try the word “Mississippi”.
Permutations Notation
P means we multiply the first three
7 3
numbers down from seven, or
7 x 6 x 5 = 210
P means we multiply the first four

7 4
numbers down from seven, or
7 x 6 x 5 x 4 = 840
Classwork
11.1.2 - Simple Probability
• Key Skill: WWBAT calculate basic
probabilities for a single event after
creating a sample space.
Life is a series of Probabilities
• There is a 30% chance of rain. Do I go to the
beach?
• Should I buy the extended warrantee on my
new Macbook?
• Do I leave my house an hour before my flight
out of Logan, or two hours before?
• Should I buy health/life/disability insurance?
Probability Review
• What is the probability of rolling a 5 on
a fair, 6-sided die?
• How do I express the probability?
Probability Review
• What is the probability of rolling a 5 on
a fair, 6-sided die?
 1 in 6
• How do I express the probability?
 1 in 6
 1/6
 0.167
 16.7%
How about a pair of dice?
• What are the possible rolls?
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Key Vocabulary
• Probability is the likelihood that a
particular outcome will occur.
• Probability values: 0% ≤ x ≤ 100%.

Tree Diagram
Red Blue Green
Black Grey Black Grey Black Grey
Hat Hatless Hat Hatless Hat Hatless
Hat Hatless Hat Hatless Hat

Hatless
What is the probability I will wear the blue shirt?

What is the probability I will wear a hat?
What is the probability I will wear the red shirt with the grey
pants and the hat?
Classwork
• Page 581-584, #1-5, 10-19
Compound Probability
• Key Skill: WWBAT calculate
probabilities for multiple events.
• What is the probability of flipping
heads on a fair coin twice in a row?
• How about 3 times?
• What is the probability of flipping
heads on a fair coin twice in a row?
1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4
1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/8
1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/32
• To find the probability of multiple
INDEPENDENT events (those that have
no effect on each other), multiply the
probabilities of each event.
Another Example
• If your basketball team needs to win its
final 3 games to make the playoffs and
you are playing teams with similar
talent, what is the probability of making
the playoffs?
Another Example
• If your basketball team needs to win its
final 3 games to make the playoffs and
you are playing teams with similar
talent, what is the probability of making
the playoffs?
• Again, 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/8
Dependence Logic Trap
• What’s wrong with the following
statement:
“The Patriots have beaten the Dolphins
twice already this season and the odds of
beating a team three times in one season
are not good.”
Solution
• The odds of winning each game are
approximately 50% (assuming equal talent),
so the odds of winning 3 times are 1/2 x 1/2
x 1/2 = 1/8, or 12.5%, BUT……….
• That is the probability of winning 3 times
BEFORE you’ve played any games.
• Once you’ve already won twice, the chance
of winning the third is 1/2, NOT 1/8.
More Difficult Example
• If you are a 33.3% free-throw shooter,
what is the probability of making AT
LEAST ONE free throw in three tries?
Is it 100%?
Solution - Tree Diagram
Make Miss
Make Miss Make Miss
Make Miss Make Miss Make Miss Make Miss

Solution - Algebra
• If you are a 33.3% free-throw shooter,
what is the probability of making AT
LEAST ONE free-throw in three tries?
Is it 100%?
• 2/3 chance of MISSING each shot, so
chance of MISSING all three is equal to
2/3 x 2/3 x 2/3 = 8/27, or about 30%.
Thus, you have a 70% chance of
MAKING at least one (100%-30%).
Classwork
1) Find the probability of a pole-vaulter clearing
19 feet in 2 tries if he has a 50% chance
each time
2) Find the probability of an archer scoring a
bulls-eye at least once in 3 tries if he has a
40% chance each time
3) Find the probability of a bowler scoring at
least 1 strike in 4 attempts if she has a 60%
chance each time
Classwork
1) Find the probability of a pole-vaulter clearing
19 feet in 2 tries if he has a 50% chance
each time Solution: 75%
2) Find the probability of an archer scoring a
bulls-eye at least once in 3 tries if he has a
40% chance each time Solution: 78.4%
3) Find the probability of a bowler scoring at
least 1 strike in 4 attempts if she has a 60%
chance each time Solution: 97/5%
And/Or Probability
• Key Skill: WWBAT calculate
probabilities for two events occurring
together or separately.
52 Card Deck
• 4 each of the following cards:
– Ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, Jack, Queen,
King
– So 13 cards times 4 each equals 52 cards
• The 13 cards come in four varieties:
– Diamonds and Hearts are both red
– Clubs and Spades are both black
– So 13 cards times 4 varieties equals 52 cards
Examples
• What is the probability of randomly
drawing a 10 from a 52 card deck?
Examples
drawing a heart from a 52 card deck?
Examples
drawing a heart from a 52 card deck?
• What is the probability of drawing a 10
OR a heart from a 52 card deck?
Solutions
• What is the probability of randomly drawing
a 10 from a 52 card deck?
4 in 52, or 1 in 13
• What is the probability of randomly drawing
a heart from a 52 card deck?
13 in 52, or 1 in 4
• What is the probability of drawing a 10 OR a
heart from a 52 card deck?
4 in 52 + 13 in 52 - 1 in 52, or 16 in 52 (4 in 13)
Formula
• Probability of A or B occurring is equal
to the Probability of A plus the
Probability of B minus the Probability
of A and B
• P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
Example
• Adrian has a 60% probability of making
the basketball team. Babett has a 50%
probability. The probability of both
making the team is 30%. What is the
probability of Adrian or Babett making
the team?
Example
• Adrian has a 60% probability of making
the basketball team. Babett has a 50%
probability. The probability of both
making the team is 30%. What is the
probability of Adrian or Babett making
the team?
60% + 50% - 30% = 80%
Classwork
• Calculate the following probabilities:
– Drawing an Ace or a Diamond
– Drawing a Red 2 or a Heart
– Drawing a Face Card or a Spade
– Drawing the Ace of Spades or any Spade
– P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = .3, P(A and B) = .1
– P(A) = 0.25, P(B) = .7, P(A and B) = .2
Regression toward the Mean
• Key Skill: WWBAT identify situations
that reflect regression to the mean.
Height Question
• Average height in the USA is:
– Men: 5’ 10”
– Women: 5’ 4”
• If 1,000 men 6’ 4” marries 1,000
women 5’ 10” and they have 1,000
sons and 1,000 daughters, how tall
should we expect the average son and
daughter to be when full grown?
Height Question
• Average height in the USA is:
– Men: 5’ 10”
– Women: 5’ 4”
• If 1,000 men 6’ 4” marries 1,000
women 5’ 10” and they have 1,000
sons and 1,000 daughters, how tall
should we expect the average son and
daughter to be when full grown?
– son: 6’ 1” and daughter 5’ 7”
Story Time
• Israeli Air Force
• Sports Illustrated “Jinx”
• Madden “Jinx”
• “Hot Hand” in basketball
Key Vocabulary
• Regression toward the mean: if a
variable is extreme on its first
measurement, it will tend to be
closer to the average on each
following measurement.
– Example: If a basketball player is a
40% shooter we should predict she
will make 4 of her NEXT 10 even if
she’s hit 5 in a row
Error in Logic
• post hoc ergo propter hoc
• Translated from Latin as: “after this,
therefore because of this”
Misleading Use of Statistics
• http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/
peter_donnelly_shows_how_stats_fool_
juries.html
Appendix
11.2.3 - Box-and-Whisker Plots
• Key Skill: WWBAT construct and

interpret box-and-whisker plots.
Presenting Data
• When I went to buy a house, I wanted
to understand the general price of
homes in different towns around
Boston.
• What types of graphs might have been
helpful?
Box-and-Whisker Plot
Key Vocabulary
• Quartiles divide a set of data into four
equal groups.
Example
• A bed of 9 tulips have the following leaf
lengths, in centimeters:
12.6, 14.0, 16.0, 16.1, 18.6, 23.3, 24.4, 28.4, 32.5
1) Calculate the min, max, and median
2) Find the medians of the upper and lower

halves
Example
• A bed of 9 tulips have the following leaf
lengths, in centimeters:
12.6, 14.0, 16.0, 16.1, 18.6, 23.3, 24.4, 28.4, 32.5
1) Calculate the min, max, and median

• 12.6, 32.5, 18.6
2) Find the medians of the upper and lower
halves
• Lower half median: 15.0
• Upper half median: 26.4
Next Steps
3) Draw lines for max and min points
4) Draw line at median
5) Draw lines at medians for upper and
lower halves
6) Complete ‘box’ and ‘whiskers’
Example
• Box-and-Whisker Plot
10 15 20 25 30 35
Leaf Length (cm)
Classwork
• Pages 611-612 #10-19

Data and Probability

Uploaded by

Data and Probability

Uploaded by

Starbucks

• Coffee Type: • Coffee Size

Hat Hatless Hat Hatless Hat Hatless

Hat Hatless Hat Hatless Hat

If we count the bottom row, we will have the number of

• Thus, “how many permutations?”

• What is the probability of one student

P means we multiply the first four

• Probability values: 0% ≤ x ≤ 100%.

Hat Hatless Hat Hatless Hat Hatless

Hat Hatless Hat Hatless Hat

What is the probability I will wear the blue shirt?

Make Miss Make Miss

Make Miss Make Miss Make Miss Make Miss

• Key Skill: WWBAT construct and

1) Calculate the min, max, and median

2) Find the medians of the upper and lower

1) Calculate the min, max, and median

You might also like