AAPL en fuego

But what is the ‘more than jobs and taxes’ thing you want them to contribute? Lower consumer prices? Higher quality? To me, the solution to both of those is not letting them get so big that competition isn’t meaningfully possible. Competition is what will bring down prices and improve quality. It also has the effect of limiting profit-taking.
Service to community. This is one of the problems rural America is struggling with. If the now nationally consolidated grocery store in a town of 2,000 people has lower profit margin than investors are demanding, you need to close it, and that town doesn't get a grocery store any more. That was the Walmart impact on rural America - they moved into a town, wiped out their local businesses because their efficiencies meant they could earn profit there, then decided the profit margins were too low and bounced out of town leaving the town with nothing.

When I was a kid there was a lot more of a focus on serving a community on the expectation that it would build loyalty to the business among the community - these were acts of 'create another customer'. When I was in college the local branch of the regional bank (covered the whole state) sat in the financial aid line and wrote out loans at the current federal college loan rate on the spot and paid whatever tuition you fell short on. It's been 40 years and I'm still appreciative of the semester the check from my dad didn't arrive in time and they covered me. That's how you create another customer. By comparison today cell companies, airlines, and so on barely even have a customer service department because so long as everyone hates their carrier equally, it's a cost center worth eliminating. It's worth losing the customer because we'll get them back with a BOGO contract offer in 3 years when they're pissed off at whoever they switched to.

Businesses used to have a more symbiotic relationship to the communities they were in than they do now. Sometimes that's at the customer level, sponsoring the local little league team, etc. My local developer pumps millions of dollars annually into the local school district, and you could look at that as nice bit of local charity, but it's also because the reputation of the local school district is what keeps housing prices high. That's not charity - it's an investment with a VERY good return. They don't put money into libraries or any other service that we need - just the one that drives housing demand. And sometimes it's at the worker level - the factory that ¼ of the town worked at is as dependent on the town as the town is on the factory. But we'll just move that to Mexico for the cheap labor because that's what investors demand and destroy the economy of this town.

There is concern right now that Intels struggles will mean the last US tech company making cutting-edge semiconductors may have to abandon that business. And that's a business that Apple and Nvidia could easily afford to catch and make use of, as well as AMD and Qualcomm or Microsoft or Google for that matter to abstract it one more layer. The US is invested in such a thing happening because we need a domestic manufacturer for national security reasons. I suspect the laser focus on shareholder return that has been banged into every part of the economy over the last 4 decades makes it very hard for any of these companies to be willing to work with their own federal government to try and catch that falling knife.

And it plays out in other ways - why has Boeing safety so gone to shit? Engineering is a ratchet that should only turn one way - once we figure out how to do something better, it should never get worse, and yet it is. Because there's more money to be saved in QA than there is to be lost in crashing planes. Whether or not that's true, Boeing management believed that to be true.

Competition does not always bring down prices and improve quality - this is only assured in commodity markets - it's much more complicated in non-commodity ones. The quality of PCs didn't improve with increased competition in the 00s because it turned into a race to the bottom. The safety of automobiles is getting worse, not better, and prices are increasing relative to inflation, not decreasing - because the entire industry is trying to lift profit margins. We're now at a point of trying to completely block cheap foreign cars in order to preserve those profit margins. We bailed out the banks risk taking and the automakers poor decision making because the societal costs of not doing that were too high, which created a moral hazard that remains to this day. The responsibility to the public that these industries at least had more of (I'm not pretending they were awesome) is completely nonexistent and all of those costs are now borne by taxpayers - and not taxes from the shareholders of these companies because cap gains rates are so low, but by workers. It's a virtuous cycle for the shareholders.
 

wrylachlan

Ars Legatus Legionis
13,462
Subscriptor
I’m extremely doubtful that the solution you’re proposing will do much about your WalMart example. I just looked up WalMart’s operating margin and it’s under 4%. That’s a radically different issue than Apple returning money to shareholders with a 43% margin.

The solution there honestly is to tread grocery stores above a certain size as a utility which essentially they are - go into a new locality and sign an agreement that you will continue to service that locality for at least 20 years and offer at least a 2 year heads up if you intend to leave (to allow a perhaps local competitor time to prepare an offering).
 
I’m extremely doubtful that the solution you’re proposing will do much about your WalMart example. I just looked up WalMart’s operating margin and it’s under 4%. That’s a radically different issue than Apple returning money to shareholders with a 43% margin.

The solution there honestly is to tread grocery stores above a certain size as a utility which essentially they are - go into a new locality and sign an agreement that you will continue to service that locality for at least 20 years and offer at least a 2 year heads up if you intend to leave (to allow a perhaps local competitor time to prepare an offering).
Keep in mind Walmart is entirely retail so that 4% is on a VERY large COGS. There's virtually no value-add there. Apple is the king of value-add. They occupy nearly opposite ends of how you value companies.

But the solution to grocery stores is probably as simple as blocking consolidation and limiting market concentration. That alone should provide enough opportunities for other stores to show up. In urban areas zoning is a huge problem which blocks local markets from opening and competing against the giant stores. Different problem. We badly need zoning reform in the US.
 

wco81

Ars Legatus Legionis
29,952
Grocery chains are a problem all over the world.

You go to Europe, the big cities all have chains, not independent grocers.

There are some but you find that their offerings are more limited and prices higher. It's hard to compete against volume purchasing and logistics at huge scale.

They still have traditional markets, where you can buy produce and meats and fishes from non-chain producers but it's just easier for most people to walk a block or two to the local chain store and pick up what they need.

In the US there are farmer's markets and those attract some small percentage willing to pay more and go for the festive experience.

Of course this is an issue with all kinds of retail business, as independent book stores and cafes have all been displaced by global chains.

What exactly does retail have to do with Apple stock or Apple in general again?
 
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Been rising since - don’t ask me for investment advice, folks!
The only good advice is buy low, sell high. So long as you’ve made a profit you’re all good.

The only other advice is to only sell if you’re rebalancing your portfolio. In other words there are other assets you need to buy.
 
If I still had all the AAPL from way back when I’d be rich now 😆🤫
I wish I put more in instead of spreading money around trying to "diversify"! (ie being a dumb kid that I was and just putting it into other tech companies I knew of...guess how much those others are worth now 🤦‍♂️)

I think I still have all of that original investment actually. Put more in over the years but recentlyish sold those off (for the lesser capital gains) here and there to spread exposure out a bit with ETFs mostly. Course AAPL is probably in a good chunk of those too 🤷
 
Analysts in the last couple of weeks have said on TV that there's no evidence of a super cycle in iPhone upgrades because of AI.

Nevertheless many of them have price targets well above today's all-time high because they think it will happen.

Meanwhile, there was a poll from MacOS Rumors or one of the Apple-centric site so probably an online poll but over 50% of Mac users said AI is currently no big deal to them.
 
AAPL never had much institutional support until Warren Buffett, so it was too wild of a ride to hold AAPL shares compared to many other tech companies. Family members would call and complain how underperforming AAPL was doing compared to everything else in the early / mid 2000's. All I could do is tell them that iTunes is coming for Windows and that with iPod sales, Apple will finally have enough cash to do all of their projects. Sadly even I deceased my holdings by half, after one earnings dump that was too much to stomach.

These days with Vanguard holding so much AAPL it's much more stable performing. Microsoft had always seemed to enjoy this effect but had a decade of little to no growth.