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2004 United States presidential election in Tennessee

Main article: 2004 United States presidential election

The 2004 United States presidential election in Tennessee was held on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 11 representatives, or electors, to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

2004 United States presidential election in Tennessee
← 2000 November 2, 2004 2008 →
Turnout66.32% Increase[1] 3.29 pp
 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 1,384,375 1,036,477
Percentage 56.81% 42.51%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

Tennessee was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 14.30% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise a red state. In the past 14 presidential elections, the Republican nominee won ten of them. The state trended more Republican by 10.43 points from Bush's performance in 2000. Bush won most of the counties and congressional districts in the state. Third-party and independent candidates made up just 0.68% of the vote.

As of 2020, this is the last time that the following counties have voted Democratic in a presidential election: Trousdale County, Humphreys County, Grundy County, Lake County, Benton County, Overton County, Smith County, Lauderdale County, Van Buren County, Stewart County, Perry County, and Clay County.

Primary elections

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Democratic primary

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Main article: 2004 Tennessee Democratic presidential primary
2004 Tennessee Democratic presidential primary
 
← 2000 February 10, 2004 (2004-02-10) 2008 →
85 Democratic National Convention delegates (69 pledged, 16 unpledged)
The number of pledged delegates received is determined by the popular vote
     
Candidate John Kerry John Edwards
Home state Massachusetts North Carolina
Delegate count 31 20
Popular vote 151,527 97,914
Percentage 41.02% 26.51%
   
Candidate Wesley Clark
Home state Arkansas
Delegate count 18
Popular vote 85,315
Percentage 23.10%
 
Results by county
Kerry      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%
Edwards      30–40%

The 2004 Tennessee Democratic presidential primary was held on February 10, 2004. John Kerry won with 41.0% of the vote and was awarded 31 delegates. John Edwards came second with 26.5% of the vote and 20 delegates. Wesley Clark came third with 23.1% of the vote and 18 delegates. All other candidates did not receive any delegates

2004 Tennessee Democratic presidential primary[2]
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Delegates[3]
Democratic John Kerry 151,527 41.02% 31
Democratic John Edwards 97,914 26.51% 20
Democratic Wesley Clark 85,315 23.10% 18
Democratic Howard Dean (withdrawn) 16,128 4.37% 0
Democratic Al Sharpton 6,107 1.65% 0
Democratic Joe Lieberman 3,213 0.87% 0
Democratic Uncommitted 2,727 0.74% 0
Democratic Carol Moseley Braun (withdrawn) 2,490 0.67% 0
Democratic Dennis Kucinich 2,279 0.62% 0
Democratic Dick Gephardt (withdrawn) 1,402 0.38% 0
Democratic Lyndon LaRouche 283 0.08% 0
Totals 626,738 100.00% 69

Republican primary

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Main article: 2004 Tennessee Republican presidential primary
2004 Tennessee Republican presidential primary
 
← 2000 February 10, 2004 (2004-02-10) 2008 →
     
Candidate George W. Bush Uncommitted
Home state Texas n/a
Delegate count 52 0
Popular vote 94,557 4,504
Percentage 95.45% 4.55%
 
Results by county
Bush:  85%  90%  95% 

The 2004 Tennessee Republican presidential primary was held on February 10, 2004. Incumbent president George W. Bush won the primary and all of the state's delegates.

2004 Tennessee Republican presidential primary[4]
Candidate Votes % Delegates
George W. Bush (incumbent) 94,557 95.45% 52
Write-ins 4,504 4.55%
Total 99,061 100% 52

General election

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Predictions

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There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[5]

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report Lean R
Associated Press Lean R
CNN Likely R
Cook Political Report Lean R
Newsweek Solid R
New York Times Solid R
Rasmussen Reports Likely R
Research 2000 Solid R
Washington Post Likely R
Washington Times Solid R
Zogby International Likely R
Washington Dispatch Likely R

Polling

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Bush won every single pre-election poll, and won each with at least 49%. The final 3 polls averaged Bush leading 56% to 40%.[6]

Fundraising

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Bush raised $4,636,916.[7] Kerry raised $1,187,742.[8]

Advertising and visits

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Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall election.[9][10]

United States presidential election in Tennessee, 2004[11]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) Dick Cheney (incumbent) 1,384,375 56.81% 11
Democratic John Kerry John Edwards 1,036,477 42.51% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Peter Camejo 8,992 0.37% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik Richard Campagna 4,866 0.20% 0
Constitution Party Michael Peroutka Chuck Baldwin 2,570 0.11% 0
Green Party David Cobb Pat LaMarche 33 0.00% 0
Socialist Walt Brown Mary Alice Herbert 6 0.00% 0
Totals 2,437,919 100.00% 11
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 54.8%

By county

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County George W. Bush
Republican 		John Kerry
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Anderson 18,510 58.42% 12,896 40.70% 276 0.87% 5,614 17.72% 31,682
Bedford 8,351 60.93% 5,268 38.44% 87 0.63% 3,083 22.49% 13,706
Benton 3,161 44.58% 3,869 54.57% 60 0.85% -708 -9.99% 7,090
Bledsoe 2,849 59.24% 1,927 40.07% 33 0.69% 922 19.17% 4,809
Blount 33,241 68.24% 15,047 30.89% 424 0.88% 18,194 37.35% 48,712
Bradley 25,951 72.82% 9,431 26.46% 255 0.72% 16,520 46.36% 35,637
Campbell 7,859 55.67% 6,163 43.65% 96 0.68% 1,696 12.02% 14,118
Cannon 2,931 53.48% 2,515 45.89% 35 0.64% 416 7.59% 5,481
Carroll 6,605 56.18% 5,070 43.12% 82 0.70% 1,535 13.06% 11,757
Carter 15,768 70.67% 6,395 28.66% 150 0.67% 9,373 42.01% 22,313
Cheatham 9,676 61.64% 5,918 37.70% 103 0.66% 3,758 23.94% 15,697
Chester 4,086 64.28% 2,242 35.27% 29 0.45% 1,844 29.01% 6,357
Claiborne 6,448 61.18% 4,034 38.27% 58 0.55% 2,414 22.91% 10,540
Clay 1,650 49.15% 1,675 49.90% 32 0.96% -25 -0.75% 3,357
Cocke 8,297 67.40% 3,935 31.96% 79 0.65% 4,362 35.44% 12,311
Coffee 11,793 58.48% 8,243 40.87% 131 0.65% 3,550 17.61% 20,167
Crockett 3,242 56.66% 2,459 42.97% 21 0.37% 783 13.69% 5,722
Cumberland 15,144 64.07% 8,327 35.23% 166 0.70% 6,817 28.84% 23,637
Davidson 107,839 44.51% 132,737 54.78% 1,726 0.71% -24,898 -10.27% 242,302
Decatur 2,566 52.59% 2,268 46.48% 45 0.92% 298 6.11% 4,879
DeKalb 3,685 51.37% 3,445 48.03% 43 0.60% 240 3.34% 7,173
Dickson 10,567 54.76% 8,597 44.55% 134 0.69% 1,970 10.21% 19,298
Dyer 8,447 61.17% 5,287 38.29% 75 0.54% 3,160 22.88% 13,809
Fayette 8,962 60.81% 5,696 38.65% 79 0.53% 3,266 22.16% 14,737
Fentress 4,293 64.07% 2,371 35.39% 36 0.54% 1,922 28.68% 6,700
Franklin 9,129 53.46% 7,800 45.68% 148 0.87% 1,329 7.78% 17,077
Gibson 10,596 55.13% 8,511 44.28% 114 0.59% 2,085 10.85% 19,221
Giles 6,163 53.42% 5,273 45.71% 101 0.87% 890 7.71% 11,537
Grainger 4,907 65.19% 2,569 34.13% 51 0.68% 2,338 31.06% 7,527
Greene 16,382 67.71% 7,635 31.56% 177 0.73% 8,747 36.15% 24,194
Grundy 2,107 42.75% 2,789 56.58% 33 0.67% -682 -13.83% 4,929
Hamblen 14,742 66.05% 7,433 33.30% 143 0.64% 7,309 32.75% 22,318
Hamilton 78,547 57.36% 57,302 41.85% 1,087 0.79% 21,245 15.51% 136,936
Hancock 1,756 68.84% 777 30.46% 18 0.69% 979 38.38% 2,551
Hardeman 4,704 44.95% 5,685 54.32% 77 0.74% -981 -9.37% 10,466
Hardin 6,087 61.15% 3,834 38.52% 33 0.33% 2,253 22.63% 9,954
Hawkins 13,447 66.46% 6,684 33.04% 102 0.51% 6,763 33.42% 20,233
Haywood 3,140 41.60% 4,359 57.75% 49 0.65% -1,219 -16.15% 7,548
Henderson 6,585 65.22% 3,448 34.15% 63 0.63% 3,137 31.07% 10,096
Henry 7,340 55.70% 5,732 43.50% 105 0.80% 1,608 12.20% 13,177
Hickman 4,359 50.26% 4,263 49.15% 51 0.59% 96 1.11% 8,673
Houston 1,440 40.02% 2,126 59.09% 32 0.89% -686 -19.07% 3,598
Humphreys 3,261 41.85% 4,485 57.55% 47 0.60% -1,224 -15.70% 7,793
Jackson 2,026 40.07% 2,998 59.30% 32 0.64% -972 -19.23% 5,056
Jefferson 11,625 67.53% 5,469 31.77% 121 0.70% 6,156 35.76% 17,215
Johnson 4,634 71.51% 1,812 27.96% 34 0.53% 2,822 43.55% 6,480
Knox 110,803 62.10% 66,013 37.00% 1,603 0.90% 44,790 25.10% 178,419
Lake 1,039 43.84% 1,317 55.57% 14 0.59% -278 -11.73% 2,370
Lauderdale 4,164 47.96% 4,474 51.53% 44 0.51% -310 -3.57% 8,682
Lawrence 9,959 59.79% 6,592 39.57% 107 0.64% 3,367 20.22% 16,658
Lewis 2,819 55.78% 2,192 43.37% 43 0.85% 627 12.41% 5,054
Lincoln 7,829 62.85% 4,546 36.49% 82 0.66% 3,283 26.36% 12,457
Loudon 14,041 70.69% 5,708 28.74% 115 0.58% 8,333 41.95% 19,864
McMinn 11,980 66.54% 5,891 32.72% 132 0.73% 6,089 33.82% 18,003
McNairy 5,787 58.31% 4,101 41.32% 36 0.36% 1,686 16.99% 9,924
Macon 4,670 62.83% 2,738 36.84% 25 0.34% 1,932 25.99% 7,433
Madison 21,679 56.05% 16,840 43.54% 156 0.40% 4,839 12.51% 38,675
Marion 5,862 51.01% 5,548 48.28% 82 0.71% 314 2.73% 11,492
Marshall 5,825 54.88% 4,722 44.48% 68 0.64% 1,103 10.40% 10,615
Maury 17,505 58.27% 12,379 41.20% 159 0.53% 5,126 17.07% 30,043
Meigs 2,500 60.50% 1,595 38.60% 37 0.90% 905 21.90% 4,132
Monroe 10,123 65.02% 5,354 34.39% 91 0.58% 4,769 30.63% 15,568
Montgomery 28,627 58.42% 20,070 40.96% 301 0.61% 8,557 17.46% 48,998
Moore 1,668 60.13% 1,084 39.08% 22 0.79% 584 21.05% 2,774
Morgan 4,401 59.80% 2,924 39.73% 35 0.48% 1,477 20.07% 7,360
Obion 7,859 58.06% 5,549 41.00% 127 0.94% 2,310 17.06% 13,535
Overton 3,941 46.31% 4,518 53.09% 51 0.60% -577 -6.78% 8,510
Perry 1,522 48.32% 1,579 50.13% 49 1.55% -57 -1.81% 3,150
Pickett 1,600 60.49% 1,033 39.05% 12 0.46% 567 21.44% 2,645
Polk 3,924 58.57% 2,724 40.66% 52 0.77% 1,200 17.91% 6,700
Putnam 15,637 59.14% 10,566 39.96% 239 0.91% 5,071 19.18% 26,442
Rhea 7,301 66.05% 3,665 33.16% 88 0.79% 3,636 32.89% 11,054
Roane 14,467 61.99% 8,706 37.30% 165 0.70% 5,761 24.69% 23,338
Robertson 15,331 60.54% 9,865 38.96% 127 0.50% 5,466 21.58% 25,323
Rutherford 52,200 61.84% 31,647 37.49% 562 0.67% 20,553 24.35% 84,409
Scott 4,509 59.11% 3,086 40.46% 33 0.44% 1,423 18.65% 7,628
Sequatchie 2,951 59.22% 1,986 39.86% 46 0.92% 965 19.36% 4,983
Sevier 22,143 71.50% 8,621 27.84% 206 0.67% 13,522 43.66% 30,970
Shelby 158,137 41.91% 216,945 57.50% 2,200 0.58% -58,808 -15.59% 377,282
Smith 3,739 47.76% 4,044 51.66% 45 0.57% -305 -3.90% 7,828
Stewart 2,675 47.91% 2,860 51.23% 48 0.86% -185 -3.32% 5,583
Sullivan 42,555 67.94% 19,637 31.35% 447 0.72% 22,918 36.59% 62,639
Sumner 40,181 64.84% 21,458 34.63% 329 0.53% 18,723 30.21% 61,968
Tipton 14,178 65.41% 7,379 34.04% 120 0.56% 6,799 31.37% 21,677
Trousdale 1,314 41.18% 1,851 58.01% 26 0.82% -537 -16.83% 3,191
Unicoi 5,030 67.40% 2,374 31.81% 59 0.80% 2,656 35.59% 7,463
Union 4,145 61.77% 2,524 37.62% 41 0.61% 1,621 24.15% 6,710
Van Buren 1,120 47.72% 1,209 51.51% 18 0.76% -89 -3.79% 2,347
Warren 7,503 52.10% 6,808 47.28% 89 0.62% 695 4.82% 14,400
Washington 29,735 66.07% 14,944 33.20% 327 0.73% 14,791 32.87% 45,006
Wayne 3,999 66.83% 1,951 32.60% 34 0.56% 2,048 34.23% 5,984
Weakley 7,817 57.92% 5,588 41.40% 91 0.67% 2,229 16.52% 13,496
White 5,269 55.49% 4,147 43.68% 79 0.84% 1,122 11.81% 9,495
Williamson 57,451 72.13% 21,732 27.28% 467 0.59% 35,719 44.85% 79,650
Wilson 28,924 65.07% 15,277 34.37% 251 0.56% 13,647 30.70% 44,452
Totals 1,383,336 56.81% 1,035,160 42.51% 16,453 0.68% 348,176 14.30% 2,434,949
 
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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By congressional district

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Bush won 7 of 9 congressional districts, including three held by Democrats.[12]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 68% 31% William L Jenkins
2nd 64% 35% John J. Duncan Jr.
3rd 61% 38% Zach Wamp
4th 58% 41% Lincoln Davis
5th 48% 52% Jim Cooper
6th 60% 40% Bart Gordon
7th 66% 33% Marsha Blackburn
8th 53% 47% John S. Tanner
9th 30% 70% Harold Ford Jr.

Electors

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Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Tennessee cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Tennessee is allocated 11 electors because it has 9 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 11 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 11 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 9 were pledged to Bush/Cheney:[13]

  1. Susan Anderson
  2. Betty Cannon
  3. Winfield Dunn
  4. Geneva Williams Harrison
  5. Brock Hill
  6. Bruce Montgomery
  7. Claude Ramsey
  8. Bob Rial
  9. John Ryder
  10. Mark Tipps
  11. Sally Wall

Analysis

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While the Republicans control slightly more than half of the state, Democrats have strong support in the cities of Memphis and Nashville and in parts of Middle Tennessee and in West Tennessee north and east of Memphis[14] The latter area includes a large rural African-American population.[15]

Despite Tennessee being a swing state from the 1950s to the 2000s, it was not seriously contested in 2004. Vice President Al Gore, a former U.S. Senator from Tennessee, lost his home state in 2000 albeit by a thin margin. The majority of voters support for Republican George W. Bush increased in 2004, with his margin of victory in the state increasing from 4% in 2000 to 14% in 2004.[16] Southern Democratic nominees (e.g., Lyndon B. Johnson, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton) usually fare better in Tennessee, especially among split-ticket voters outside the metropolitan areas.

As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last election in which Trousdale County, Humphreys County, Grundy County, Lake County, Benton County, Overton County, Smith County, Lauderdale County, Van Buren County, Stewart County, Perry County, and Clay County voted for the Democratic candidate, as John McCain would outperform Bush in the state four years later.

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Tennessee Voter Turnout in 2004". Tennessee Secretary of State. November 2, 2004. Retrieved February 28, 2023.
  2. ^ Leip, Dave. "2004 Presidential Democratic Primary Election Results - Tennessee". Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections. Archived from the original on March 16, 2010. Retrieved March 16, 2020.
  3. ^ "Tennessee Democratic Delegation 2004". www.thegreenpapers.com. Archived from the original on February 5, 2004. Retrieved March 16, 2020.
  4. ^ "RptNewRepPrimary" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved April 6, 2024.
  5. ^ "Archived copy". dcpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on November 21, 2010. Retrieved January 17, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  6. ^ "Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Archived from the original on November 28, 2008. Retrieved November 29, 2009.
  7. ^ "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved August 13, 2018.
  8. ^ "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved August 13, 2018.
  9. ^ "CNN.com Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved August 13, 2018.
  10. ^ "CNN.com Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved August 13, 2018.
  11. ^ "2004 Presidential General Election Results - Tennessee".
  12. ^ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project". Swingstateproject.com. Retrieved August 13, 2018.
  13. ^ "U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election - Certificates". Archives.gov. Retrieved August 13, 2018.
  14. ^ "Map - Tennessee 2000 Election Mapper". Archived from the original on January 3, 2009. Retrieved November 29, 2009.
  15. ^ Tennessee by County - GCT-PL. Race and Hispanic or Latino 2000 Archived 2009-12-23 at the Wayback Machine U.S. Census Bureau
  16. ^ Tennessee: McCain Leads Both Democrats by Double Digits Archived 2008-12-24 at the Wayback Machine Rasumussen Reports, April 6, 2008
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