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2020 United States presidential election in Michigan

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For related races, see 2020 United States presidential election.

2020 United States presidential election in Michigan
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout71%Increase[1]
 
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 16 0
Popular vote 2,804,040 2,649,852
Percentage 50.62% 47.84%
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

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Mayoral elections

The 2020 United States presidential election in Michigan was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[3] Michigan voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump of Florida, and his running mate, Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana against the Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware, and his running mate, Senator Kamala Harris of California. Michigan had 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[4]

In 2016, Trump became the first Republican to carry Michigan since 1988, when George H. W. Bush had scored a decisive nationwide win against Michael Dukakis.[5] Throughout the campaign, Biden touted his work on the auto bailout in manufacturing towns outside Detroit. Appearing with United Auto Workers, Biden presented a new proposal to penalize American companies for moving manufacturing and service jobs overseas and then selling their products back in the United States.[6] Polls of Michigan throughout the campaign generally indicated a clear Biden lead. Prior to election day, most news organizations considered Michigan a likely blue state, or a state that Biden was likely to win.

Biden ultimately carried Michigan by 2.78%, a far closer margin than expected. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's strength in Michigan came from union households, who composed 21% of the electorate and supported Biden by 56%–42%. Biden was also able to boost minority turnout, consequently winning 93% of Black American voters.[7] Many voters were also concerned with the COVID-19 pandemic, which had hit the state hard; 52% of voters felt the pandemic was not under control at all, and these voters broke for Biden by 82%–16%. Trump outperformed his polling average in the state, but not by enough to win. Michigan marked Biden's strongest performance in a state won by Trump in 2016, even voting to the left of Nevada which Trump lost in 2016.

Biden flipped the counties of Leelanau, Kent, and Saginaw and became the first Democrat since Woodrow Wilson in 1916 to win the presidency without winning Bay or Gogebic Counties, the first Democrat since Harry S. Truman in 1948 to win without Monroe County, the first Democrat since John F. Kennedy in 1960 to win without Lake County and the first Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976 to win without Calhoun, Isabella, Manistee, Shiawassee, or Van Buren Counties.

With Ohio, Florida, and Iowa backing the losing candidate for the first time since 1960, 1992, and 2000 respectively, this election established Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania as the states with the longest bellwether streak still in effect today. The last time any of them voted against the winning candidate was 2004, when all three voted for losing Democrat John Kerry.

Michigan's overall vote in for this election was 1.7% more Republican than the nation-at-large.

Primary elections

[edit]

The primary elections were held on March 10, 2020.

Republican primary

[edit]
This section is transcluded from 2020 Michigan Republican presidential primary. (edit | history)

Incumbent United States President Donald Trump was challenged by three candidates: former governor Mark Sanford of South Carolina, former congressman Joe Walsh of Illinois, and former governor Bill Weld of Massachusetts. Sanford and Walsh both withdrew prior to the primary. Michigan is the only primary state where Sanford's name remained on the ballot.[8]

2020 Michigan Republican primary[9]
Candidate Votes % Estimated
delegates
Donald Trump (incumbent) 640,552 93.7% 73
Uncommitted 32,743 4.8% 0
Bill Weld 6,099 0.9% 0
Mark Sanford (withdrawn) 4,258 0.6% 0
Joe Walsh (withdrawn) 4,067 0.6% 0
Total 683,431 100% 73

Democratic primary

[edit]

Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden were the two major declared Democratic candidates.[10]

This section is transcluded from 2020 Michigan Democratic presidential primary. (edit | history)
Results by county
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Biden—60–70%
2020 Michigan Democratic presidential primary[11]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[12]
Joe Biden 840,360 52.93 73
Bernie Sanders 576,926 36.34 52
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)[a] 73,464 4.63
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)[a] 26,148 1.65
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)[b] 22,462 1.41
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)[b] 11,018 0.69
Tulsi Gabbard 9,461 0.60
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)[c] 2,380 0.15
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)[b] 1,732 0.11
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)[c] 1,536 0.10
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 840 0.05
Joe Sestak (withdrawn) 757 0.05
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 719 0.05
John Delaney (withdrawn)[d] 464 0.03
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 306 0.02
Uncommitted 19,106 1.20
Total 1,587,679 100% 125

General election

[edit]

Final predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking
The Cook Political Report[13] Lean D (flip)
Inside Elections[14] Lean D (flip)
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Lean D (flip)
Politico[16] Lean D (flip)
RCP[17] Tossup
Niskanen[18] Likely D (flip)
CNN[19] Lean D (flip)
The Economist[20] Likely D (flip)
CBS News[21] Lean D (flip)
270towin[22] Lean D (flip)
ABC News[23] Lean D (flip)
NPR[24] Lean D (flip)
NBC News[25] Lean D (flip)
538[26] Solid D (flip)

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

[edit]


Aggregate polls

[edit]
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[e] 		Margin
270 to Win[27] October 22 – November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 49.9% 44.4% 5.7% Biden +5.5
Real Clear Politics[28] October 29 – November 1, 2020 November 3, 2020 50.0% 45.8% 4.2% Biden +4.2
FiveThirtyEight[29] until November 1, 2020 November 3, 2020 51.2% 43.2% 5.6% Biden +7.9
Average 50.4% 44.5% 5.1% Biden +5.9

2020 polls

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Howie
Hawkins
Green 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] Oct 20 – Nov 2 4,549 (LV) ± 2% 46%[g] 52% - - – –
Research Co.[31] Oct 31 – Nov 1 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 43% 50% - - 2%[h] 5%
Change Research/CNBC[32] Oct 29 – Nov 1 383 (LV) ± 5.01% 44% 51% 3% 1% – 1%
Swayable[33] Oct 27 – Nov 1 413 (LV) ± 6.5% 45% 54% 1% 0% – –
Ipsos/Reuters[34] Oct 27 – Nov 1 654 (LV) ± 4.4% 43%[i] 53% 1% 0% 2%[j] –
42%[k] 52% - - 3%[l] 3%
45%[m] 53% - - 2%[n] –
Trafalgar Group[35] Oct 30–31 1,033 (LV) ± 2.97% 48% 46% 2% - 1% 3%
AtlasIntel[36] Oct 30–31 686 (LV) ± 4% 46% 48% - - 6% –
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness[37][A] Oct 30–31 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 49% 2% - – 3%
Morning Consult[38] Oct 22–31 1,736 (LV) ± 2.0% 44.5% 52% - - – –
Emerson College[39] Oct 29–30 700 (LV) ± 3.4% 45%[o] 52% - - 3%[p] –
Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan[40][B] Oct 29–30 745 (V) ± 3.6% 44% 54% 1% 0% – 1%
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart[41] Oct 25–30 993 (LV) – 39% 53% - - 8%[q] –
CNN/SSRS[42] Oct 23–30 907 (LV) ± 3.8% 41% 53% 2% 1% 1%[r] 2%
Mitchell Research (R)/MIRS[43] Oct 29 817 (LV) ± 3.43% 45% 52% 1% 1% 0%[s] 0%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ[44] Oct 27–29 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 44%[i] 51% - - 3% 2%
42%[t] 53% - - 3% 2%
45%[u] 50% - - 3% 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[45] Oct 26–29 1,212 (LV) – 41% 54% 1% 0% 1% 4%
EPIC-MRA[46] Oct 25–28 600 (LV) ± 4% 41% 48% - - 5%[v] 6%[w]
Trafalgar Group[47] Oct 25–28 1,058 (LV) ± 2.93% 49% 47% 2% - 1%[x] 1%
Kiaer Research[48] Oct 21–28 669 (LV) ± 5.6% 41% 54% - - 2%[y] 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] Oct 1–28, 2020 7,541 (LV) – 45% 53% - - – –
Mitchell Research (R)/MIRS[49] Oct 25–27 759 (LV) ± 3.56% 42% 52% 3% 0% 0%[z] 2%
Swayable[50] Oct 23–26, 2020 394 (LV) ± 6.7% 40% 59% 2% 0% – –
Siena College/NYT Upshot[51] Oct 23–26 856 (LV) ± 3.8% 41% 49% 2% 1% 0%[aa] 6%[w]
Ipsos/Reuters[52] Oct 20–26 652 (LV) ± 4.4% 43%[i] 53% 1% 0% 2%[j] –
43%[k] 52% - - 3%[l] 3%
Wick Surveys[53] Oct 24–25 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 48% 48% - - – –
Glengariff Group/Detroit News[54] Oct 23–25 600 (LV) ± 4% 42% 49% - - 2%[ab] 4%
ABC/Washington Post[55] Oct 20–25 789 (LV) ± 4% 44% 51% 3% 0% 0%[ac] 1%
Gravis Marketing[56] Oct 24 679 (LV) ± 3.8% 42% 55% - - – 3%
Public Policy Polling/American Bridge PAC[57][C] Oct 21–22 804 (V) – 43% 50% - - – 6%
YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison[58] Oct 13–21 681 (LV) ± 4.2% 42% 52% - - 5%[ad] –
Citizen Data[59] Oct 17–20 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 41% 50% 1% 0% 1% 7%
Fox News[60] Oct 17–20 1,032 (LV) ± 3.0% 40% 52% 3% 0% 2%[ae] 3%
Ipsos/Reuters[61] Oct 14–20 686 (LV) ± 4.3% 44%[i] 52% 2% 0% 2%[j] –
44%[k] 51% - - 3%[l] 2%
Morning Consult[38] Oct 11–20 1,717 (LV) ± 2.4% 44% 52% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC[62] Oct 16–19 718 (LV)[af] – 44% 51% - - – –
EPIC-MRA[63] Oct 15–19 600 (LV) ± 4% 39% 48% - - 5%[ag] 8%[w]
Mitchell Research (R)/MIRS[64] Oct 18 900 (LV) ± 3.27% 41% 51% 3% 1% 1%[x] 3%
Trafalgar Group/Restoration PAC[65][D] Oct 15–18 1,034 (LV) ± 2.97% 47% 45% 3% 2% 2%[h] 2%
Data For Progress[66] Oct 15–18 830 (LV) ± 3.4% 45% 50% 2% 0% – 3%
Zia Poll/Painter Communications/MIRS News[67] Oct 11–18 2,851 (LV) ± 2.5% 49% 45% - - 2% 3%
HarrisX/The Hill[68] Oct 12–15 1,289 (LV) – 43% 54% - - – –
Trafalgar Group[69] Oct 11–14 1,025 (LV) ± 2.97% 47% 46% 3% 2% 2%[h] 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[70] Oct 10–13 972 (LV) – 42%[af] 51% 1% 0% – –
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ[71] Oct 8–13 800 (LV) – 42%[i] 48% 2% 1% 1% 5%
39%[t] 51% 2% 1% 1% 5%
44%[u] 46% 2% 1% 1% 5%
Ipsos/Reuters[72] Oct 7–13 620 (LV) ± 4.5% 44%[i] 51% 2% 1% 2%[ah] –
43%[k] 51% - - 3%[l] 2%
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press[73] Oct 8–12 600 (LV) ± 4% 39% 48% - - 4%[ai] 9%[w]
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[74][E] Oct 8–11 543 (LV) ± 4.6% 43% 52% - - 4%[aj] 2%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[75] Oct 6–11 614 (LV) ± 4.6% 40% 48% 1% 1% 1%[ak] 8%[w]
Morning Consult[76] Oct 2–11 1,710 (LV) ± 2.4% 44% 51% - - – –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[70] Oct 9–10 827 (LV) – 41%[af] 51% 2% 1% – –
YouGov/CBS[77] Oct 6–9 1,190 (LV) ± 3.3% 46% 52% - - 2%[al] 0%
Baldwin Wallace University[78] Sep 30 – Oct 8 1,134 (LV) ± 3.2% 43% 50% 1% 1% 0%[am] 4%
Emerson College[79] Oct 6–7 716 (LV) ± 3.6% 43%[o] 54% - - 2%[h] –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[80] Oct 4–6 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 42% 50% 1% 0% 1%[an] 6%
Opinion Insight/American Action Forum[81][F] Oct 3–6 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 44%[o] 52% - - 2% 3%
Ipsos/Reuters[82] Sep 29 – Oct 6 709 (LV) ± 4.2% 43% 51% - - 2%[ao] 3%
Change Research/CNBC[83] Oct 2–4 676 (LV) – 43% 51% - - – –
Glengariff Group/Detroit News[84] Sep 30 – Oct 3 600 (LV) ± 4% 39% 48% - - 5%[ap] 7%
Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan[85][B] Sep 30 – Oct 1 746 (V) – 44% 50% 2% 1% – 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] Sep 1–30 3,297 (LV) – 44% 53% - - – 3%
Trafalgar Group/Restoration PAC[86][D] Sep 26–28 1,042 (LV) ± 2.95% 47% 49% 2% 0% 1%[x] 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[87] Sep 23–26 785 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 51% 1% 0% 0%[aq] 6%
Marist College/NBC[88] Sep 19–23 799 (LV) ± 4.3% 44% 52% - - 1% 3%
ALG Research/Committee to Protect Medicare[89][G] Sep 17–23 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 52% - - – –
Trafalgar Group[90] Sep 20–22 1,015 (LV) ± 2.99% 46.7% 46.0% 2.1% 0.8% 1.2%[ar] 3.2%
Baldwin Wallace University[91] Sep 9–22 1,001 (LV) ± 3.6% 42% 50% 1% 0% 1%[as] 6%
YouGov/UW-Madison Elections Research
Center/Wisconsin State Journal[92] 		Sep 10–21 641 (LV) – 45% 51% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC[93] Sep 18–20 568 (LV) – 43% 51% - - – –
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[94][H] Sep 17–19 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 50% - - – –
Data for Progress (D)[95] Sep 14–19 455 (LV) ± 4.6% 42%[i] 48% 1% 0% – 9%
44%[at] 50% - - – 6%
MRG[96] Sep 14–19 600 (LV) ± 4% 41% 46% - - 8%[au] 5%
Ipsos/Reuters[97] Sep 11–16 637 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 49% - - 2%[ao] 4%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[98][E] Sep 11–15 517 (RV) – 42% 53% - - 3%[p] 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[99] Sep 12–14 930 (LV) ± 3.21% 39% 49% 2% 1% 0%[aq] 9%
EPIC-MRA[100] Sep 10–15 600 (LV) ± 4% 40% 48% - - 5%[ag] 7%[w]
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group/AARP[101] Aug 28 – Sep 8 1,600 (LV) ± 2.5% 43% 50% - - 1%[av] 5%
Morning Consult[102] Aug 29 – Sep 7 1,455 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 42%[aw] 52% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC[103] Sep 4–6 876 (LV) – 43% 49% - - 7%[ax] –
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports[104][105] Sep 2–3 1,000 (LV) ± 3% 44%[o] 53% - - 3%[ay] –
Glengariff Group[106] Sep 1–3 600 (LV) ± 4% 42% 47% - - 4%[az] 7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[107] Aug 30 – Sep 3 967 (LV) ± 3.15% 40% 51% 1% 0% 1%[an] 7%
Opinion Insight/American Action Forum[108][F] Aug 30 – Sep 2 802 (LV) ± 3.46% 44%[o] 51% 2% 1% 0%[ba] 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] Aug 1–31 2,962 (LV) – 48% 49% - - – 3%
Morning Consult[109] Aug 21–30 1,424 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 42% 52% - - – –
Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan[110][B] Aug 28–29 897 (V) – 44% 48% 3% 1% – 3%
Change Research/CNBC[111] Aug 21–23 809 (LV) – 44% 50% - - – –
Trafalgar Group[112] Aug 14–23 1,048 (LV) ± 2.98% 47% 45% 3% - 1%[bb] 4%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies[113] Aug 16–19 812 (LV) – 38% 50% 1% 1% 1%[bc] 9%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[114][E] Aug 13–17 631 (RV) – 46% 49% - - 3%[p] 1%
Morning Consult[109] Aug 7–16 1,212 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 44% 50% - - – –
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[115][D] Aug 11–15 600 (LV) – 41% 52% - - – 7%
Change Research/CNBC[116] Aug 7–9 413 (LV) – 43% 48% - - – –
YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison[117] Jul 27 – Aug 6 761 (RV) ± 5.1% 43% 47% - - 5%[bd] 6%
GQR Research/Unite the Country PAC[118][I] Jul 30 – Aug 4 1,245 (LV) – 43% 52% - - – –
David Binder Research[119] Jul 30–31 200 (LV) – 41% 51% - - – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] Jul 1–31 3,083 (LV) – 48% 49% - - – 2%
EPIC-MRA[120] Jul 25–30 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 51% 3% - - 6%
Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan[121][B] Jul 28–29 876 (V) – 43% 49% - - 6%[be] 3%
Change Research/CNBC[122][123] Jul 24–26 413 (LV) – 42% 46% - - – –
Morning Consult[124] Jul 17–26 1,320 (LV) ± 2.7% 42% 52% - - – –
YouGov/CBS[125] Jul 21–24 1,156 (LV) ± 3.4% 42% 48% - - 2%[bf] 7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[126] Jul 19–24 811 (LV) – 37% 49% 1% 1% 2%[bg] 10%
CNN/SSRS[127] Jul 18–24 927 (RV) ± 3.8% 40% 52% - - 5%[bh] 2%
Gravis Marketing[128][129] Jul 22 754 (RV) ± 3.6% 42% 51% - - – 7%
Fox News[130] Jul 18–20 756 (RV) ± 3.5% 40% 49% - - 4%[bi] 7%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[131][D] Jul 13–16 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 53% - - – 7%
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[132][J] Jul 11–16 600 (LV) ± 3.7% 50% 45% - - – 5%
Change Research/CNBC[133] Jul 10–12 824 (LV) – 42% 48% - - – –
Public Policy Polling/Public Policy Polling/Giffords (D)[134][K] Jul 9–10 1,041 (V) ± 3.2% 44% 51% - - – 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] Jun 8–30 1,238 (LV) – 46% 51% - - – 3%
Change Research/CNBC[135] Jun 26–28 699 (LV)[af] – 43% 48% - - – –
Public Policy Polling/Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan (D)[136][B] Jun 26–27 1,237 (V) – 44% 50% - - 5%[bj] 1%
Hodas & Associates/Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)[137] Jun 17–20 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 38% 56% - - 2%[bk] 7%
Trafalgar Group[138] Jun 16–18 1,101 (LV) ± 2.95% 45% 46% - - 5%[ag] 4%
NYT Upshot/Siena College[139] Jun 8–17 610 (RV) ± 4.3% 36% 47% - - 8%[bl] 9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[140] Jun 14–16 826 (LV) ± 3.41% 36% 47% 2% 1% 2%[bm] 12%
TargetPoint[141] Jun 11–16 1,000 (A) – 33% 49% - - 4%[bn] 14%
Change Research/CNBC[142] Jun 12–14 353 (LV)[af] – 45% 47% - - 3%[bo] –
TIPP/American Greatness PAC[143][A] Jun 9–12 859 (LV) – 38% 51% - - 4%[bp] 7%
Kiaer Research[144] May 31 – Jun 7 543 (LV) ± 6.4% 35% 50% - - 6%[bq] 8%
EPIC-MRA[145] May 31 – Jun 4 600 (LV) ± 4% 39% 55% - - – –
EPIC-MRA[146] May 30 – Jun 3 600 (LV) ± 4% 41% 53% - - – 6%[w]
Change Research/CNBC[147] May 29–31 620 (LV)[af] – 46% 48% - - 3% 3%
Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan[148][B] May 29–30 1,582 (V) ± 2.5% 44% 50% - - 4%[br] 2%
Morning Consult[124] May 17–26 1,325 (LV) – 42% 50% - - – –
Public Policy Polling/Protect Our Care[149][L] May 18–19 1,234 (V) ± 2.8% 45% 51% - - – 5%
Change Research/Crooked Media[150] May 11–17 3,070 (LV) – 46% 49% - - – –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[151] May 10–14 970 (LV) ± 3.2% 39% 47% - - 3%[bs] 11%
Hodas & Associates/Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)[152] May 1–5 600 (LV) ± 3% 42% 50% - - – 8%
Public Policy Polling[153][M] Apr 28–29 1,270 (V) – 42% 50% - - – 8%
Public Policy Polling[154][N] Apr 20–21 1,277 (RV) – 44% 51% - - – 5%
Fox News[155] Apr 18–21 801 (RV) ± 3.5% 41% 49% - - 3% 6%
Ipsos/Reuters[156] Apr 15–20 612 (RV) ± 5.0% 38% 46% - - – –
Hodas & Associates/Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)[157] Apr 9–11 600 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 49% - - – –
Hart Research/CAP Action[158][O] Apr 6–8 303 (RV) – 41% 50% - - 4% 5%
Public Policy Polling[159] Mar 31 – Apr 1 1,019 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 48% - - – 7%
SPRY Strategies[160] Mar 30 – Apr 1 602 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 46% - - – 8%
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes[161] Mar 17–25 997 (RV) ± 3.7% 42% 47% - - – 11%
Change Research[162] Mar 21–23 510 (LV) – 47% 48% - - 5%
Marketing Resource Group[163] Mar 16–20 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 44% - - 9%[bt] 6%
Hodas & Associates/Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)[164] Mar 12–16 600 (RV) – 44% 50% - - – –
AtlasIntel[165] Mar 7–9 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 44% - - 10% –
YouGov/Yahoo News[166] Mar 6–8 566 (RV) – 41% 45% - - 6%[bu] 7%
Monmouth University[167] Mar 5–8 977 (RV) ± 3.1% 41% 48% - - 2% 9%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[168] Mar 5–7 550 (RV) ± 5.3% 46% 44% - - – –
YouGov[169] Feb 11–20 1,249 (RV) ± 4.0% 43% 47% - - – –
Quinnipiac University[170] Feb 12–18 845 (RV) ± 3.4% 43% 47% - - 6%[bv] 3%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute[171] Feb 6–18 500 (RV) – 43% 43% - - – 14%
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press[172][173] Jan 9–12 600 (LV) ± 4% 44% 50% - - – 6%
Glengariff Group Inc.[174] Jan 3–7 600 (LV) ± 4% 43% 50% - - – 5%


2017–2019 polls

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other Undecided
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[168] Dec 3–5, 2019 551 (LV) ± 4.3% 46% 41% 8%[bw] 5%[w]
Emerson College[175] Oct 31 – Nov 3, 2019 1,051 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 56% – –
NYT Upshot/Siena College[176] Oct 13–25, 2019 501 (LV) ± 5.1% 44% 45% – –
Target Insyght[177] Sep 24–26, 2019 800 (LV) – 35% 54% – –
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[178] Sep 7–9, 2019 529 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 42% 17% –
EPIC-MRA[179] Aug 17–21, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 51% – 8%
Climate Nexus[180] Jul 14–17, 2019 820 (RV) ± 4.0% 36% 49% 5%[bx] 10%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[181] Jun 11–13, 2019 587 (LV) ± 4.2% 43% 46% 11% –
EPIC-MRA[182] Jun 8–12, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 52% – 7%
Glengariff Group[183] May 28–30, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 53% – 4%
WPA Intelligence[184] Apr 27–30, 2019 200 (LV) ± 6.9% 42% 45% – 12%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[185] Mar 19–21, 2019 530 (LV) ± 4.5% 46% 45% 4% –
Emerson College[186] Mar 7–10, 2019 743 (RV) ± 3.5% 46% 54% – –
Glengariff Group[187] Jan 24–26, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 53% – 5%
EPIC-MRA[188] Apr 28–30, 2018 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 52% – 9%
Zogby Analytics[189] Sep 2017 800 (V) – 35% 52% – 13%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Michael
Bloomberg (D) 		Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University[170] Feb 12–18, 2020 845 (RV) ±3.4% 42% 47% 7%[by] 4%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute[171] Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 41% 46% – 13%
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press[172][1] Jan 9–12, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 42% 49% – 9%
Glengariff Group Inc.[174] Jan 3–7, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 41% 47% – 10%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[168] Dec 3–5, 2019 551 (LV) ± 4.3% 48% 37% 8%[bw] 7%[w]

Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Cory
Booker (D) 		Other Undecided
Climate Nexus[180] Jul 14–17, 2019 820 (RV) ± 4.0% 37% 39% 7%[bz] 16%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Pete
Buttigieg (D) 		Other Undecided
YouGov[169] Feb 11–20, 2020 1,249 (RV) ±4.0% 41% 47% – –
Quinnipiac University[170] Feb 12–18, 2020 845 (RV) ±3.4% 44% 45% 8%[ca] 3%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute[171] Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 40% 44% – 15%
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press[172][2] Jan 9–12, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 43% 47% – 10%
Glengariff Group Inc.[174] Jan 3–7, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 43% 45% – 10%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[168] Dec 3–5, 2019 551 (LV) ± 4.3% 48% 37% 8%[cb] 6%[w]
Climate Nexus[180] Jul 14–17, 2019 820 (RV) ± 4.0% 37% 39% 7%[bz] 16%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[181] Jun 11–13, 2019 587 (LV) ± 4.2% 44% 40% 16% –
Glengariff Group[183] May 28–30, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 47% – 11%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Kamala
Harris (D) 		Other Undecided
EPIC-MRA[179] Aug 17–21, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 46% – 11%
Climate Nexus[180] Jul 14–17, 2019 820 (RV) ± 4.0% 38% 41% 6%[cc] 14%
Glengariff Group[183] May 28–30, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 47% – 9%
Emerson College[186] Mar 7–10, 2019 743 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 51% – –
Glengariff Group[187] Jan 24–26, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 47% – 10%

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Amy
Klobuchar (D) 		Other Undecided
YouGov[169] Feb 11–20, 2020 1,249 (RV) ± 4.0% 41% 44% – –
Quinnipiac University[170] Feb 12–18, 2020 845 (RV) ± 3.4% 44% 45% 6%[bv] 4%
Emerson College[186] Mar 7–10, 2019 743 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 53% – –

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Beto
O'Rourke (D) 		Other Undecided
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[185] Mar 19–21, 2019 530 (LV) ± 4.5% 48% 39% 8% –

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (D) 		Other Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes[161] Mar 17–25, 2020 997 (RV) ± 3.7% 42% 45% – 13%
Hodas & Associates/Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)[164] Mar 12–16, 2020 600 (RV) – 44% 49% – –
AtlasIntel[165] Mar 7–9, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 46% 11% –
YouGov/Yahoo News[166] Mar 6–8, 2020 566 (RV) – 42% 43% 7%[cd] 8%
Monmouth University[167] Mar 5–8, 2020 977 (RV) ± 3.1% 41% 46% 2% 9%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[168] Mar 5–7, 2020 550 (RV) ± 5.3% 48% 41% – –
YouGov[169] Feb 11–20, 2020 1,249 (RV) ± 4.0% 41% 48% – –
Quinnipiac University[170] Feb 12–18, 2020 845 (RV) ± 3.4% 43% 48% 7%[by] 3%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute[171] Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 42% 46% – 12%
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press[172][3] Jan 9–12, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 45% 50% – 5%
Glengariff Group Inc.[174] Jan 3–7, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 45% 49% – 5%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[168] Dec 3–5, 2019 551 (LV) ± 4.3% 48% 42% 6%[ce] 5%[w]
Emerson College[175] Oct 31 – Nov 3, 2019 1,051 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 57% – –
NYT Upshot/Siena College[176] Oct 13–25, 2019 501 (LV) ± 5.1% 42% 46% – –
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[178] Sep 7–9, 2019 529 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 40% 17% –
EPIC-MRA[179] Aug 17–21, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 48% – 8%
Climate Nexus[180] Jul 14–17, 2019 820 (RV) ± 4.0% 38% 47% 4%[cf] 11%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[181] Jun 11–13, 2019 587 (LV) ± 4.2% 44% 44% 12% –
Glengariff Group[183] May 28–30, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 53% – 5%
Tulchin Research (D)[190][P] Apr 14–18, 2019 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 41% 52% – –
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[185] Mar 19–21, 2019 530 (LV) ± 4.5% 46% 45% 6% –
Emerson College[186] Mar 7–10, 2019 743 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 52% – –
Glengariff Group[187] Jan 24–26, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 52% – 6%
Zogby Analytics[189] Sep 2017 800 (V) – 36% 54% – 10%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Other Undecided
YouGov[169] Feb 11–20, 2020 1,249 (RV) ±4.0% 43% 46% – –
Quinnipiac University[170] Feb 12–18, 2020 845 (RV) ±3.4% 43% 45% 7%[cg] 4%
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press[172][4] Jan 9–12, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 45% 48% – 7%
Glengariff Group Inc.[174] Jan 3–7, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 44% 46% – 8%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[168] Dec 3–5, 2019 551 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 38% 8%[ch] 6%[w]
Emerson College[175] Oct 31 – Nov 3, 2019 1,051 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 54% – –
NYT Upshot/Siena College[176] Oct 13–25, 2019 501 (LV) ± 5.1% 45% 40% – –
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[178] Sep 7–9, 2019 529 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 41% 17% –
EPIC-MRA[179] Aug 17–21, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 49% – 8%
Climate Nexus[180] Jul 14–17, 2019 820 (RV) ± 4.0% 38% 44% 6%[cc] 12%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[181] Jun 11–13, 2019 587 (LV) ± 4.2% 43% 41% 16% –
Glengariff Group[183] May 28–30, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 47% – 9%
Emerson College[186] Mar 7–10, 2019 743 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 51% – –
Glengariff Group[187] Jan 24–26, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 46% – 10%
Zogby Analytics[189] Sep 2017 800 (V) – 37% 46% – 17%
Zogby Analytics[191] Aug 17–23, 2017 803 (LV) ± 3.5% 35% 51% – 14%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Justin Amash

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Joe
Biden (D) 		Justin
Amash (L) 		Undecided
Glengariff Group[183] May 28–30, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 45% 10% 6%

with Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Howard Schultz

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Joe
Biden (D) 		Howard
Schultz (I) 		Undecided
Emerson College[186] Mar 7–10, 2019 743 (RV) ± 3.5% 44% 52% 4% –

with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (D) 		Howard
Schultz (I) 		Undecided
Emerson College[186] Mar 7–10, 2019 743 (RV) ± 3.5% 45% 49% 6% –

with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Generic
Democrat (D) 		Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University[192] Mar 17–25, 2020 997 (RV) ± 3.7% 43.2%[ci] 54.0% 2.9%[cj]
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute[171] Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 38% 50% 11%
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University[193] Jan 8–20, 2020 1,023 (RV) ± 3.1% 36.4%[ci] 50.3% 13.3%
KFF/Cook Political Report[194] Sep 23 – Oct 15, 2019 767 (RV) ± 4% 27% 39% 25%

with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Generic
Opponent 		Undecided
EPIC-MRA[120] Jul 25 - 30, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 37% 49%[ck] 14%
EPIC-MRA[145] May 31 – Jun 4, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 33% 51%[ck] 13%[cl]
EPIC-MRA[145][5] May 30 – Jun 3, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 38% 51%[ck] 8%[cl]
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press[172][6] Jan 9–12, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 34% 44%[ck] 22%[cm]
EPIC-MRA[182] Jun 8–12, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4% 32% 45%[cn] 23%[co]
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press[195] Mar 3–7, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4% 31% 49%[cp] 20%[cq]
Glengariff Group/WDIV/Detroit News[196][197] Jan 24–26, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4% 31% 53% 15%[cr]

Results

[edit]
People at the United States Embassy in New Zealand watch as the results from Michigan are released on CNN, 5 November 2020.
2020 United States presidential election in Michigan[198][199]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		2,804,040 50.62% +3.35%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		2,649,852 47.84% +0.34%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen 		60,381 1.09% −2.50%
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker 		13,718 0.25% −0.82%
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr 		7,235 0.13% N/A
Natural Law Rocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson 		2,986 0.05% N/A
Write-in Brian T. Carroll 963 0.02% +0.01%
Write-in Jade Simmons 89 <0.01% N/A
Write-in Tom Hoefling 32 <0.01% N/A
Write-in 6 <0.01% N/A
Total votes 5,539,302 100.00%

By county

[edit]
County Joe Biden
Democratic 		Donald Trump
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Alcona 2,142 30.32% 4,848 68.63% 74 1.05% −2,706 −38.31% 7,064
Alger 2,053 39.98% 3,014 58.70% 68 1.32% −961 −18.72% 5,135
Allegan 24,449 36.39% 41,392 61.60% 1,354 2.01% −16,943 −25.21% 67,195
Alpena 6,000 35.32% 10,686 62.91% 301 1.77% −4,686 −27.59% 16,987
Antrim 5,960 37.32% 9,748 61.03% 264 1.65% −3,788 −23.71% 15,972
Arenac 2,774 31.38% 5,928 67.07% 137 1.55% −3,154 −35.69% 8,839
Baraga 1,478 36.52% 2,512 62.07% 57 1.41% −1,034 −25.55% 4,047
Barry 11,797 32.80% 23,471 65.27% 693 1.93% −11,674 −32.47% 35,961
Bay 26,151 43.34% 33,125 54.90% 1,057 1.76% −6,974 −11.56% 60,333
Benzie 5,480 44.69% 6,601 53.83% 181 1.48% −1,121 −9.14% 12,262
Berrien 37,438 45.34% 43,519 52.71% 1,608 1.95% −6,081 −7.37% 82,565
Branch 6,159 29.94% 14,064 68.36% 350 1.70% −7,905 −38.42% 20,573
Calhoun 28,877 43.57% 36,221 54.65% 1,183 1.78% −5,344 −11.08% 66,281
Cass 9,130 34.79% 16,699 63.63% 413 1.58% −7,569 −28.84% 26,242
Charlevoix 6,939 40.75% 9,841 57.79% 250 1.46% −2,902 −17.04% 17,030
Cheboygan 5,437 34.22% 10,186 64.10% 267 1.68% −4,749 −29.88% 15,890
Chippewa 6,648 37.62% 10,681 60.44% 342 1.94% −4,033 −22.82% 17,671
Clare 5,199 31.91% 10,861 66.65% 235 1.44% −5,662 −34.74% 16,295
Clinton 21,968 45.84% 25,098 52.37% 861 1.79% −3,130 −6.53% 47,927
Crawford 2,672 33.99% 5,087 64.71% 102 1.30% −2,415 −30.72% 7,861
Delta 7,606 35.93% 13,207 62.39% 354 1.68% −5,601 −26.46% 21,167
Dickinson 4,744 32.46% 9,617 65.80% 254 1.74% −4,873 −33.34% 14,615
Eaton 31,299 48.66% 31,798 49.43% 1,230 1.91% −499 −0.77% 64,327
Emmet 9,662 43.50% 12,135 54.64% 412 1.86% −2,473 −11.14% 22,209
Genesee 119,390 53.84% 98,714 44.51% 3,660 1.65% 20,676 9.33% 221,764
Gladwin 4,524 30.95% 9,893 67.69% 198 1.36% −5,369 −36.74% 14,615
Gogebic 3,570 43.14% 4,600 55.58% 106 1.28% −1,030 −12.44% 8,276
Grand Traverse 28,683 47.53% 30,502 50.54% 1,168 1.93% −1,819 −3.01% 60,353
Gratiot 6,693 34.95% 12,102 63.20% 353 1.85% −5,409 −28.25% 19,148
Hillsdale 5,883 25.25% 17,037 73.11% 382 1.64% −11,154 −47.86% 23,302
Houghton 7,750 41.82% 10,378 56.00% 405 2.18% −2,628 −14.18% 18,533
Huron 5,490 29.77% 12,731 69.03% 221 1.20% −7,241 −39.26% 18,442
Ingham 94,212 65.18% 47,639 32.96% 2,699 1.86% 46,573 32.22% 144,550
Ionia 10,901 33.84% 20,657 64.13% 651 2.03% −9,756 −30.29% 32,209
Iosco 5,373 34.92% 9,759 63.42% 255 1.66% −4,386 −28.50% 15,387
Iron 2,493 36.69% 4,216 62.05% 86 1.26% −1,723 −25.36% 6,795
Isabella 14,072 47.74% 14,815 50.26% 589 2.00% −743 −2.52% 29,476
Jackson 31,995 39.49% 47,372 58.47% 1,647 2.04% −15,377 −18.98% 81,014
Kalamazoo 83,686 58.22% 56,823 39.53% 3,237 2.25% 26,863 18.69% 143,746
Kalkaska 3,002 28.24% 7,436 69.95% 193 1.81% −4,434 −41.71% 10,631
Kent 187,915 51.91% 165,741 45.78% 8,375 2.31% 22,174 6.13% 362,031
Keweenaw 672 43.16% 862 55.36% 23 1.48% −190 −12.20% 1,557
Lake 2,288 36.13% 3,946 62.32% 98 1.55% −1,658 −26.19% 6,332
Lapeer 16,367 31.04% 35,482 67.29% 883 1.67% −19,115 −36.25% 52,732
Leelanau 8,795 52.04% 7,916 46.84% 189 1.12% 879 5.20% 16,900
Lenawee 20,918 39.13% 31,541 59.01% 993 1.86% −10,623 −19.88% 53,452
Livingston 48,220 37.91% 76,982 60.52% 1,995 1.57% −28,762 −22.61% 127,197
Luce 842 28.00% 2,109 70.14% 56 1.86% −1,277 −42.14% 3,007
Mackinac 2,632 37.47% 4,304 61.27% 89 1.26% −1,772 −23.80% 7,025
Macomb 223,952 45.31% 263,863 53.39% 6,441 1.30% −39,911 −8.08% 494,256
Manistee 6,107 41.60% 8,321 56.69% 251 1.71% −2,214 −15.09% 14,679
Marquette 20,465 54.50% 16,286 43.37% 799 2.13% 4,179 11.13% 37,550
Mason 6,802 39.36% 10,207 59.06% 274 1.58% −3,405 −19.70% 17,283
Mecosta 7,375 34.98% 13,267 62.93% 439 2.09% −5,892 −27.95% 21,081
Menominee 4,316 34.20% 8,117 64.31% 188 1.49% −3,801 −30.11% 12,621
Midland 20,493 41.67% 27,675 56.28% 1,007 2.05% −7,182 −14.61% 49,175
Missaukee 1,967 22.47% 6,648 75.93% 140 1.60% −4,681 −53.46% 8,755
Monroe 32,980 37.78% 52,722 60.39% 1,597 1.83% −19,742 −22.61% 87,299
Montcalm 9,703 30.19% 21,815 67.88% 620 1.93% −12,112 −37.69% 32,138
Montmorency 1,628 27.77% 4,171 71.14% 64 1.09% −2,543 −43.37% 5,863
Muskegon 45,643 49.37% 45,133 48.82% 1,668 1.81% 510 0.55% 92,444
Newaygo 7,873 28.95% 18,857 69.33% 467 1.72% −10,984 −40.38% 27,197
Oakland 434,148 56.24% 325,971 42.22% 11,872 1.54% 108,177 14.02% 771,991
Oceana 4,944 35.11% 8,892 63.15% 244 1.74% −3,948 −28.04% 14,080
Ogemaw 3,475 29.15% 8,253 69.23% 193 1.62% −4,778 −40.08% 11,921
Ontonagon 1,391 36.51% 2,358 61.89% 61 1.60% −967 −25.38% 3,810
Osceola 3,214 26.05% 8,928 72.35% 198 1.60% −5,714 −46.30% 12,340
Oscoda 1,342 27.50% 3,466 71.02% 72 1.48% −2,124 −43.52% 4,880
Otsego 4,743 32.10% 9,779 66.19% 253 1.71% −5,036 −34.09% 14,775
Ottawa 64,705 38.35% 100,913 59.81% 3,095 1.84% −36,208 −21.46% 168,713
Presque Isle 2,911 34.84% 5,342 63.94% 102 1.22% −2,431 −29.10% 8,355
Roscommon 5,166 34.36% 9,670 64.32% 198 1.32% −4,504 −29.96% 15,034
Saginaw 51,088 49.37% 50,785 49.08% 1,610 1.55% 303 0.29% 103,483
St. Clair 31,363 34.02% 59,185 64.19% 1,654 1.79% −27,822 −30.17% 92,202
St. Joseph 9,262 33.10% 18,127 64.78% 592 2.12% −8,865 −31.68% 27,981
Sanilac 5,966 26.58% 16,194 72.15% 286 1.27% −10,228 −45.57% 22,446
Schoolcraft 1,589 33.49% 3,090 65.12% 66 1.39% −1,501 −31.63% 4,745
Shiawassee 15,347 39.05% 23,149 58.90% 805 2.05% −7,802 −19.85% 39,301
Tuscola 8,712 29.55% 20,297 68.85% 470 1.60% −11,585 −39.30% 29,479
Van Buren 16,803 42.92% 21,591 55.16% 752 1.92% −4,788 −12.24% 39,146
Washtenaw 157,136 72.44% 56,241 25.93% 3,554 1.63% 100,895 46.51% 216,931
Wayne 597,170 68.32% 264,553 30.27% 12,295 1.41% 332,617 38.05% 874,018
Wexford 5,838 31.92% 12,102 66.16% 352 1.92% −6,264 −34.24% 18,292
Totals 2,804,045 50.55% 2,649,864 47.77% 93,277 1.68% 154,181 2.78% 5,547,186

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Despite losing the state, Trump won 8 out of the 14 congressional districts in Michigan, including one that elected a Democrat.

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 57.9% 40.6% Jack Bergman
2nd 55% 43.2% Bill Huizenga
3rd 50.7% 47.4% Justin Amash
Peter Meijer
4th 61.1% 37.2% John Moolenaar
5th 47.1% 51.4% Dan Kildee
6th 51.3% 46.8% Fred Upton
7th 56.7% 41.6% Tim Walberg
8th 49.6% 48.8% Elissa Slotkin
9th 42.7% 55.9% Andy Levin
10th 64.2% 34.4% Paul Mitchell
Lisa McClain
11th 47.1% 51.6% Haley Stevens
12th 34.4% 64.2% Debbie Dingell
13th 20% 78.8% Rashida Tlaib
14th 19.6% 79.5% Brenda Lawrence

Analysis

[edit]

Michigan was generally seen as one of the most critical states of the 2020 election; the state boasted a highly prized 16 electoral votes, and had been part of the blue wall since Bill Clinton won the state in 1992. It was key to Trump's surprise victory in 2016, and the Biden campaign paid heavy attention to the state throughout the campaign, looking to avoid a repeat of Hillary Clinton's unexpected collapse in the northern industrial states.[201][202]

Biden would carry the state by just under 2.8%; while Biden ran well behind Barack Obama in his two campaigns, his margin of victory was nearly in-line for a Democratic candidate, only performing slightly worse than John Kerry's 3.4% margin in 2004, and Al Gore's 5.1% margin in 2000, reflecting some of the steady demographic shifts in the state. Many undecided/third-party voters that had been lost by Clinton appeared to return to the Democratic column, giving Biden enough votes to carry the state.[203]

While Michigan returned to the Democratic column with a somewhat comfortable margin, the state's internal politics shifted rather dramatically. Trump performed strongly with white voters without a college degree, winning this group by 17 points, and this group made up about 51% of Michigan's electorate, cementing the white-working-class shift to the GOP; with men, this was even more convincing, as Trump carried white men without a college degree by 30 points. On the other hand, there was a significant suburban shift towards the Democrats; for example, Ottawa County, a suburban county outside of Grand Rapids, has traditionally been a GOP-stronghold in the state; Biden cut into Trump's margins here, and Trump carried this county with less than 60%.[203] Trump held Macomb County, which famously helped him clinch Michigan in 2016, but carried it by only 8 points, 3 points fewer than in 2016.[204]

Other demographic patterns remained the same. Biden won 93% of African-American voters in the state; consequently, Biden improved from Clinton's performance in Wayne County, home of Detroit.[204] Biden's performance among black voters would carry on in other parts of the state; Biden was able to match Clinton's performance in Genesee County,[205] and flipped back Saginaw County.[206]

Biden performed strongly with Michigan's different religious groups; Biden was able to improve from Clinton in the vote share with Evangelical Michiganders. More importantly, Biden performed strongly with white Catholics, who make up a large portion of Michigan's electorate.[207] Much of the state's sizable Muslim and Arab American voters backed Biden in the election, in which their support was seen as being important for helping Biden secure victory in Michigan.[208][209]

Jeremy W. Peters of The New York Times wrote that "high Detroit turnout" was a crucial factor aiding Biden.[210] African Americans in Detroit were a major demographic contributing to Joe Biden winning that state.[211] Trump received 12,600 votes in Detroit proper, an increase from the previous election's 7,700. In percentage terms, the shift in Detroit was from Clinton 95–3 to Biden 94–5, a decreased margin from 92 points in 2016 to 89 in 2020. Biden saw increases from 2016 in Oakland and Washtenaw counties.[212]

The 2020 election in Oakland County by municipality (certain villages like Holly not shown).
The 2020 election in Wayne County by municipality.

In Oakland County, Biden won 433,982 votes, making up 56.36% of the votes. The municipalities in Oakland County that majority-voted for Biden versus Trump included Bloomfield Township, Farmington Hills, Madison Heights, Novi, Rochester Hills, Southfield and Troy.[213]

The number of unbalanced votes in Wayne County for 2020 was below the same number for 2016.[214] On November 23, 2020, Michigan certified the results 3–0, with Norm Shinkle abstaining.[215]

Edison exit polls

[edit]
2020 presidential election in Michigan by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[216][217]
Demographic subgroup Biden Trump % of

total vote

Total vote 50.62 47.84 100
Ideology
Liberals 89 10 25
Moderates 62 36 38
Conservatives 12 88 37
Party
Democrats 97 3 38
Republicans 6 94 38
Independents 51 45 23
Gender
Men 44 54 46
Women 57 43 54
Race/ethnicity
White 44 55 81
Black 92 7 12
Latino 55 44 3
Asian – – 1
Other – – 4
Age
18–24 years old 62 36 7
25–29 years old 59 37 4
30–39 years old 48 50 14
40–49 years old 49 49 15
50–64 years old 51 49 29
65 and older 51 49 30
Sexual orientation
LGBT – – 6
Not LGBT 53 47 94
Education
High school or less 49 50 20
Some college education 49 50 27
Associate degree 42 57 18
Bachelor's degree 55 44 20
Postgraduate degree 63 37 16
Income
Under $30,000 61 39 16
$30,000–49,999 60 39 20
$50,000–99,999 55 44 34
Over $100,000 47 51 30
Union households
Yes 62 37 21
No 48 51 79
Issue regarded as most important
Racial inequality 93 5 16
Coronavirus 94 5 18
Economy 14 86 39
Crime and safety 22 77 9
Health care 85 12 10
Region
Wayne County 69 30 16
Southeast 58 41 27
East central 42 57 24
Southwest 46 53 19
North central/Upper Peninsula 40 59 14
Area type
Urban 65 35 21
Suburban 48 51 58
Rural 45 54 21
Family's financial situation today
Better than four years ago 18 81 41
Worse than four years ago 90 9 15
About the same 72 27 43

Aftermath

[edit]

On November 5, a state judge in Michigan dismissed the Trump campaign's lawsuit requesting a pause in vote-counting to allow access to observers, as the judge noted that vote-counting had already finished in Michigan.[218] That judge also noted the official complaint did not state "why, when, where, or by whom" an election observer was allegedly blocked from observing ballot-counting in Michigan.[219]

On election night in Antrim County, human error miscounted an unofficial tally of Presidential votes. Next day, the County Clerk pulled the unofficial tally offline. The error was caused by using different kinds of ballots when setting up ballot scanners and result-reporting systems, which mismatched results.[220] The Republican Clerk admitted that she made a mistake in some precincts, which mismatched precinct results.[221] The very next day, she corrected her mistake, tabulated all ballots again and ran a final report to certify Trump's overwhelming win.[220] Nonetheless, this error and a related lawsuit fueled multiple election conspiracy theories.[222]

Despite pressure from the Trump campaign to hand the decision over the state's presidential electors to the Michigan State Legislature, which would have been an unprecedented maneuver in state history and was not authorized under Michigan law, the statewide results were certified in favor of the Biden/Harris ticket on November 23, with one Republican member of the Michigan Board of State Canvassers abstaining.[223]

Official audits

[edit]

In October 2020, the Michigan Election Security Advisory Commission published recommendations for two types of postelection audits: procedural and tabulation audits.[224] The first statewide risk-limiting audit included a hand tally of the sampled ballots, which confirmed that Biden received more votes than Trump and the share of votes each candidate received was within a fraction of a percentage point of the certified results.[225] Another tabulation audit confirmed the election results by examining ballots cast, voting machines and the election procedures. The series of post-election audits was the most comprehensive in the state's history.[226]

In Antrim County, the Clerk's Office was joined by a bipartisan team of clerks to perform a hand recount of every single ballot. Their recount proved that the county's election results had been accurately certified.[221] The Republican Chairman concluded in a letter prefacing his state Senate Oversight Committee's election report: "all compelling theories that sprang forth from the rumors surrounding Antrim County are diminished so significantly as for it to be a complete waste of time to consider them further."[227]

After eight months investigating the state's 2020 general election process, he and his Republican Committee members all voted for the Senate to adopt their report. Their report concluded, "The Committee found no evidence of widespread or systemic fraud in Michigan's prosecution of the 2020 election."[227]

Election law changes since then

[edit]

Due to voters approving no-reason-required absentee voting in 2018 and the COVID pandemic, there was a record number of absentee voters. Michigan law at that time did not allow for the tabulating of absentee ballots until after the polling place ballots were counted. That led to days before Biden was declared the winner.[228] In 2022, voters approved a ballot proposal making it easier to vote. In the aftermath, Michigan lawmakers made changes in election laws which, among other things, allowed cities and townships to begin tabulating absentee ballots before Election Day.[229]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
  2. ^ a b c d e f Progress Michigan is a non-profit that primarily supports Democratic candidates
  3. ^ The American Bridge PAC exclusively supports Democratic candidates
  4. ^ a b c d The Restoration PAC is a 501 non-profit which supports Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign
  5. ^ a b c Rust Belt Rising is affiliated with the Democratic Party
  6. ^ a b The American Action Forum is a 501 organization which usually supports Republican candidates
  7. ^ The Committee to Protect Medicare is a PAC with a history of buying ads arguing against the reelection of Trump
  8. ^ The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  9. ^ Unite the Country PAC has endorsed Biden's presidential campaign
  10. ^ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
  11. ^ Poll sponsored by Giffords, whose head - Gabby Giffords - had endorsed Biden prior to the sampling period
  12. ^ Protect Our Care is a pro-Affordable Care Act organization
  13. ^ Poll sponsored by Progress Michigan, the Michigan branch of Progress Now, a progressive advocacy organization
  14. ^ Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization
  15. ^ CAP Action is a political advocacy group that exclusively supports Democratic candidates
  16. ^ Poll sponsored by the Sanders campaign

Voter samples and additional candidates

  1. ^ a b Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, following Super Tuesday.
  2. ^ a b c Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, before Super Tuesday.
  3. ^ a b Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, following the New Hampshire primary.
  4. ^ Candidate withdrew in January, shortly after absentee voting had begun.
  5. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  7. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  8. ^ a b c d "Someone else" with 2%
  9. ^ a b c d e f g Standard VI response
  10. ^ a b c "Some other candidate" with 2%; West (B) and would not vote with 0%
  11. ^ a b c d If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  12. ^ a b c d "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  13. ^ Results considering those who lean towards a given candidate among those initially predisposed towards abstention, indecision or a candidate besides Biden or Trump in the response section immediately above
  14. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  15. ^ a b c d e With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  16. ^ a b c "Someone else" with 3%
  17. ^ "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 8%
  18. ^ "None of these" with 1%; "Other" with 0%
  19. ^ "Someone else" with no voters
  20. ^ a b Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  21. ^ a b Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  22. ^ "Third party" with 5%
  23. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Includes "Refused"
  24. ^ a b c "Someone else" with 1%
  25. ^ "Other/third party" with 2%
  26. ^ "Someone else" with 0%
  27. ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  28. ^ "Third party" with 2%
  29. ^ "Other" and "None of these" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
  30. ^ Includes Undecided
  31. ^ "Other" with 2%; would not vote with no voters
  32. ^ a b c d e f Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  33. ^ a b c "Third party candidate" with 5%
  34. ^ "Some other candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  35. ^ "Third party candidate" with 4%
  36. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  37. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  38. ^ "Other third party" with 2%
  39. ^ "Another candidate" with 0%
  40. ^ a b "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  41. ^ a b "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  42. ^ "Refused" with 3%; "Third Party" with 2%
  43. ^ a b "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 0%
  44. ^ "Someone else" with 1.2%
  45. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%
  46. ^ If only Trump and Biden were candidates
  47. ^ "Someone else" with 7%; "Refused" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  48. ^ Would not vote with 1%
  49. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  50. ^ "Other/not sure" with 7%
  51. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  52. ^ "Refused" with 3%; "Third party" with 1%
  53. ^ Would not vote with 0%
  54. ^ "Another party candidate" with 1%
  55. ^ "Another third party/write-in" 1%
  56. ^ "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
  57. ^ "Third party" with 6%
  58. ^ "Someone else/third party" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  59. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-In" with 2%
  60. ^ "Other" with 1%; "Neither" with 4%
  61. ^ "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
  62. ^ "Would vote third party" with 5%
  63. ^ "Refused" with 2%
  64. ^ "Another candidate" with 3%; Would not vote with 5%
  65. ^ "other" with 2%
  66. ^ "Refused/no answer" with 4%
  67. ^ "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 3%
  68. ^ "Other" with 4%; "prefer not to answer" with 0%
  69. ^ "A different candidate" with 6%
  70. ^ "Third party" with 4%
  71. ^ "Third party/write-in" with 3%
  72. ^ "Someone else" with 6%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%
  73. ^ "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  74. ^ a b "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 4%
  75. ^ a b A third party candidate with 5%; would not vote with 3%
  76. ^ Would not vote with 5%
  77. ^ a b "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 4%
  78. ^ a b Would not vote with 7%
  79. ^ "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 5%
  80. ^ A third party candidate with 4%; would not vote with 4%
  81. ^ a b Would not vote with 6%
  82. ^ "Other" with 5%; would not vote with 2%
  83. ^ A third party candidate with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  84. ^ Would not vote with 4%
  85. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 5%
  86. ^ A third party candidate with 3%; would not vote with 5%
  87. ^ a b Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
  88. ^ "It depends on who the Democrats nominate" with 1.9%; "unsure" with 1%
  89. ^ a b c d Listed as "Would vote to replace Trump"
  90. ^ a b Listed as "would consider voting for someone other than Trump"
  91. ^ 19% listed as "would consider voting for someone other than Trump"; 3% as "undecided/refused"
  92. ^ "Vote to replace Trump" with 45%
  93. ^ "Consider voting for someone else" with 19%; "Undecided/refused" with 4%
  94. ^ "Vote to replace Trump" with 49%
  95. ^ "Consider voting for someone else" with 16%; "Don't know/refused" with 4%
  96. ^ "Depends on who the Democratic nominee is" with 15%

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Further reading

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