this story is from October 26, 2024

‘Donald Trump could slow America’s energy transition — but he can’t control global trends’

Arthur van BenthemArthur van Benthem
Arthur van Benthem is Associate Professor of Business Economics and Public Policy at Wharton. Speaking to Srijana Mitra Das at Times Evoke, he outlines the climate of the 2024 US election:
Which are some of the most important environmental policies in America that could be impacted by this election?
■ There are quite a few but the Clean Vehicles policy comes to mind first. The US has a whole set of ambitious cornerstone policies, trying to transform the oil industry. However, these are not a done deal — they could be rolled back by a new administration.

Four measures are critical here — the first is the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards, meant to increase the share of electric vehicles (EVs) in new car sales from around 10% today to 56%. There is also a requirement for an additional 16% plug-in hybrid EVs. Second, there are regulations to electrify and clean up the heavy-duty truck fleet. The third is about California which has its own regulation that mandates an almost entirely electric car fleet by 2035. Finally, there are very generous tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) for EVs.

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Recently, several Republican politicians announced they will look to roll back some of these measures if the administration changes. It could even be the case that California will no longer be allowed to have its own stricter EV policies as they need an exception from the federal Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for this. It remains to be seen if they can get that under a new administration.
How likely is an expanded fossil fuel industry under a potential Donald Trump administration?
Trump has always been a very vocal supporter of this industry — the last time he was in power, he rolled back many policies, like fuel efficiency for cars, providing more space for using fossil fuels in transport and producing more oil and gas.

THIS-LIKE: Billionaire Elon Musk believes in climate change — but backs Trump
THIS-LIKE: Billionaire Elon Musk believes in climate change — but backs Trump

However, importantly, there are underlying trends in energy markets globally which affect the US too — these go deeper than what a single American administration can control. For instance, vehicle markets are moving towards electrification worldwide while renewable energy has been steadily growing cheaper — a Trump administration could slow these transitions down but it won’t be able to prevent them.

What does fracking mean for both the US economy and the environment?
■ Fracking is very important. The US was about to become an importer of natural gas — suddenly, fracking boosted production so much, the US is now an exporter. It’s a huge industry, famed for giving the US energy independence and so much gas is produced locally now, the price is low. That’s kept power prices down and made manufacturing relatively cheap.

Haunted, taunted, vaunted- an American election for the ages
Haunted, taunted, vaunted- an American election for the ages

There are two environmental dimensions here. You could say burning gas instead of coal is less carbon dioxide (CO2)-intensive as the former involves about half the amount. However, fracking also causes gas leakages into the air as methane emissions. On balance, most people think fracking is slightly better for the climate but there are environmental concerns, from earthquakes to waste water disposal and the disruptions of ecosystems due to well drilling.

Has Kamala Harris’ support to fracking come as a surprise?
■ It’s actually a broad continuation of the Biden administration’s approach. The Biden government has been pushing very ambitious environmental policies — however, for the most part, it’s never said it would ban specific technologies. It just made it more attractive to go with the cleaner ones. Harris’ support is a continuation of many steps which are already happening.
Donald Trump is partnered by Elon Musk, a proponent of clean energy — is there a paradox to this pairing?
■ It is puzzling. Musk has repeatedly said climate change is an existential crisis and this motivates his projects. He’s a big supporter of renewable energy while many policies Trump proposes are against the financial interests of that part of Musk’s business empire. However, there could be more alignment here between the policies of a Republican administration on space travel and autonomous vehicles, such as lower corporate taxes, etc. Also, Musk has contracts with the department of defence, NASA, etc., from which he could possibly benefit further if Trump became President.


Times evoke

Has there been any new understanding on climate change in Donald Trump’s camp, given how America has been experiencing extreme weather events?
■ Opinion polls conducted among both conservative and liberal voters in the US, asking how concerned people are about climate change and if they support measures to combat it, show this trend growing among both Democrats and Republicans — but the latter are, on average, more concerned than their representatives in Congress. We haven’t seen much change in D.C. except fewer politicians today would say they don’t believe climate change is real — they are now more likely to say, ‘There are so many other things to worry about’. There hasn’t been a huge change in the number of Republican politicians that vote pro-climate.


What would a potential Donald Trump administration mean for the international climate agreements America is part of?

■ This will have a direct effect — the climate policies that might change in the US is what America will bring to the global table. Even if the US doesn’t retreat from the Paris Agreement, it could offer a lower contribution.

POLL-ITE INTEREST: Vladimir Putin notes US energy independence via fracking
POLL-ITE INTEREST: Vladimir Putin notes US energy independence via fracking


Research: Encyclopaedia Britannica, The London Review of Books, Smithsonian Magazine
Research: Encyclopaedia Britannica, The London Review of Books, Smithsonian Magazine


The response of other countries becomes interesting then — the last time, the European Union increased its climate commitments when the US backtracked. However, it is hard to predict what could happen currently.


How much of a concern has climate change been in this American election — is there nuance, like linking surging migration to the US with climate impacts?
■ It has actually played a relatively modest role, far behind inflation, the economy, reproductive rights and immigration. It’s important to discuss the linkages between climate change and mass migration but that has not been a central part of the debate — this is more focused on what America is doing at the border. The connection between climate distress and migration hasn’t been front and centre in how people envision this in America.
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