Antarctica is GAINING ice faster than it's losing it: Temperatures have been dropping for the past six years 

  • Researchers at Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Centre analysed satellite data
  • They demonstrated the Antarctic ice sheet showed a net gain of 112 billion tons of ice a year from 1992 to 2001 in East Antarctica and West interior
  • Research challenges conclusions of other studies, including IPCC report
  • But experts warns losses of Antarctic Peninsula and parts of West Antarctica will catch up with the long-term gain in East Antarctica

By SARAH GRIFFITHS FOR MAILONLINE

Published: | Updated:

Antarctica is gaining more ice than it loses from its glaciers, new research by Nasa claims.

It says Antarctica's ice sheet is currently thickening enough to outweigh increased losses caused by melting glaciers, which is attributed to global warming.

The research challenges the conclusions of other studies, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) 2013 report, which says that Antarctica is losing land ice overall.

But it also warns that losses could offset the gains in years to come.

A Nasa study says that Antarctica is overall accumulating ice and temperatures have been cooling since 2009. However, areas of the continent, like the Antarctic Peninsula photographed above, have increased their mass loss in the last decades

A Nasa study says that Antarctica is overall accumulating ice and temperatures have been cooling since 2009. However, areas of the continent, like the Antarctic Peninsula photographed above, have increased their mass loss in the last decades

The increase in Antarctic snow began 10,000 years ago and continues in East Antarctica and the interior of West Antarctica by an average of 0.7 inches (1.7cm) per year, according to the space agency.

Researchers analysed satellite data to demonstrate the Antarctic ice sheet showed a net gain of 112 billion tons of ice a year from 1992 to 2001.

That net gain slowed to 82 billion tons of ice per year between 2003 and 2008. 

The increase in Antarctic snow began 10,000 years ago and continues in East Antarctica and the interior of West Antarctica by an average of 0.7 inches (1.7cm) per year, according to the space agency. This map shows the rates of mass changes from ICESatellite 2003-2008 over Antarctica

The increase in Antarctic snow began 10,000 years ago and continues in East Antarctica and the interior of West Antarctica by an average of 0.7 inches (1.7cm) per year, according to the space agency. This map shows the rates of mass changes from ICESatellite 2003-2008 over Antarctica

ELSEWHERE THE ICE IS SHRINKING

The Amundsen Sea has long been thought to be the weakest ice sheet in the West Antarctic.

A study published in December suggests the barren region is haemorrhaging ice at a rate triple that of a decade ago.

Researchers believe that the melting of glaciers in West Antarctica, which contain enough water to raise sea levels by at least a metre, may be irreversible.

The findings of the 21-year study by Nasa and the University of California, Irvine claim to provide the most accurate estimates yet of just how fast glaciers are melting in the Amundsen Sea Embayment.

Scientists found the rate by taking radar, laser and satellite measurements of the glaciers' mass between 1992 and 2013.

They found they lost an average 83 gigatons per year (91.5 billion US tons), or the equivalent of losing the water weight of Mount Everest every two years.

'We're essentially in agreement with other studies that show an increase in ice discharge in the Antarctic Peninsula and the Thwaites and Pine Island region of West Antarctica,' said Jay Zwally, a glaciologist with Nasa Goddard Space Flight Centre in Greenbelt, Maryland and lead author of the study published in the Journal of Glaciology.

'Our main disagreement is for East Antarctica and the interior of West Antarctica – there, we see an ice gain that exceeds the losses in the other areas.'

Dr Zwally said his team 'measured small height changes over large areas, as well as the large changes observed over smaller areas.'

They calculated how much the ice sheet is growing or shrinking from the changes in surface height that are measured by the satellite altimeters.

In locations where the amount of new snowfall accumulating on an ice sheet is not equal to the ice flow downward and outward to the ocean, the surface height changes and the ice-sheet mass grows or shrinks.

It has previously been assumed that gains seen in the ice sheet in East Antarctica are due to recent increases in snow accumulation.

But using meteorological data beginning in 1979, his team showed snowfall in East Antarctica actually decreased by 11 billion tons per year during 1992 to 2001 and 2003 to 2008. 

Dr Zwally warned: ‘If the losses of the Antarctic Peninsula and parts of West Antarctica continue to increase at the same rate they’ve been increasing for the last two decades, the losses will catch up with the long-term gain in East Antarctica in 20 or 30 years' A stock image of glacier melt in the Antarctic Peninsula is shown

Dr Zwally warned: 'If the losses of the Antarctic Peninsula and parts of West Antarctica continue to increase at the same rate they've been increasing for the last two decades, the losses will catch up with the long-term gain in East Antarctica in 20 or 30 years' A stock image of glacier melt in the Antarctic Peninsula is shown

'CLIMATE PLANS DON'T GO FAR ENOUGH,' UN WARNS 

National plans designed to limit climate change do not go far enough to keep global temperatures from rising by more than the 2°C (36°F) danger threshold, officials say.

The United Nations (UN) has assessed the plans of 146 countries, to conclude that total carbon emissions will continue to grow, albeit at a slower rate than the past two decades.

However, the report says national initiatives leave the ‘door open’ to capping global warming below the danger threshold.

t has been released a month ahead of crunch talks in Paris, where the UN believes the plans, known as Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), will form the foundation of a binding global treaty on climate change.

Its assessment is arguably optimistic about the plans, despite saying that in their current form, global temperatures look set to rise 2.7°C (37°F) above pre-industrial levels.

Scientists have previously warned that if temperature rises exceed 2°C (36°F), the planet could be subject to more extreme weather, droughts and flooding, which could hit poor countries especially hard.

While the report says INDCs will bring down per capita emissions by nine percent by 2030, it notes the overall amount of carbon in the atmosphere will continue to grow over the next 15 years.

Overall emissions could be as much as 22 per cent higher in 2030 when compared to 2010 levels, the UN says.

They also studied ice core records to conclude that the East Antarctica ice sheet has been thickening for a very long time.

 'At the end of the last Ice Age, the air became warmer and carried more moisture across the continent, doubling the amount of snow dropped on the ice sheet,' Dr Zwally explained. 

The extra snowfall that began 10,000 years ago has been slowly accumulating on the ice sheet and compacting into solid ice over millennia, thickening the ice in East Antarctica and the interior of West Antarctica by an average of 0.7 inches (1.7cm) per year.

This small thickening, sustained over thousands of years and spread over the vast expanse of these sectors of Antarctica, corresponds to a very large gain of ice – enough to outweigh the losses from fast-flowing glaciers in other parts of the continent and reduce global sea level rise.

His team calculated that the mass gain from the thickening of East Antarctica remained steady from 1992 to 2008 at 200 billion tons per year, while the ice losses from the coastal regions of West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula increased by 65 billion tons per year.

'The good news is that Antarctica is not currently contributing to sea level rise, but is taking 0.23 millimetres per year away,' Dr Zwally said.

'But this is also bad news. If the 0.27 millimetres per year of sea level rise attributed to Antarctica in the IPCC report is not really coming from Antarctica, there must be some other contribution to sea level rise that is not accounted for.'

He also warned it may only take a few decades for Antarctica's growth to reverse.

'If the losses of the Antarctic Peninsula and parts of West Antarctica continue to increase at the same rate they've been increasing for the last two decades, the losses will catch up with the long-term gain in East Antarctica in 20 or 30 years - I don't think there will be enough snowfall increase to offset these losses.'  

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