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Someone knew before the market did.

Insider Radar scans every trade for patterns that suggest someone traded on information the market didn't have.

How It Works
01
Abnormal timing detection
Flags trades placed suspiciously close to market resolution — hours, not days, before an outcome becomes clear.
02
Edge-captured scoring
Measures how much a trader paid vs. market consensus. Buying at $0.15 on an event that resolves YES captures 85% edge.
03
Cluster analysis
When multiple fresh wallets take the same side of the same market within a narrow window, Radar detects the coordination.
The Problem

Prediction markets are supposed to be efficient. But every week, wallets make suspiciously large, suspiciously well-timed bets — and win. A fresh wallet drops $50K on a low-liquidity market hours before resolution. Another cluster of wallets takes the same side within minutes.

Normal analytics don't catch this. Insider Radar does.

Detection Signals
Timing
How close to resolution the trade was placed. Trades in the last few hours before outcome score highest.
Edge Captured
How cheaply shares were bought relative to the $1 payout. Buying at $0.10 captures 90% edge — far beyond normal trading.
Size
Absolute and relative position size. Large bets on low-liquidity markets are weighted more heavily.
Fresh Wallet
Wallet age and prior market history. A brand-new wallet making one big winning bet is more suspicious than a veteran trader.

When Flagged Trades Happen — Time Before Resolution

91.4% of all 27,524 flagged trades land within 1 hour of the market resolving. Real data from 107,224 scanned markets.

Edge Captured by Flagged Traders

Edge = how cheaply they bought shares that resolved to $1. Buying at $0.10 captures 90% edge. Higher edge with perfect timing is the strongest insider signal.

What Separates a Flag from a Watch

Average signal strength (0–1) across 778 flags vs 26,746 watches. The gap in Edge and Fresh Wallet score is what triggers a red flag vs an amber watch.

Scoring Methodology
What gets scanned?
Every trade on every resolved market across Polymarket and Kalshi. Over 107,000 markets scanned to date.
What triggers a flag?
Multiple active signals above internal thresholds. A single suspicious metric isn't enough — the system requires convergence across timing, edge, size, and wallet history.
What's the difference between a flag and a watch?
Flags exceed the highest thresholds across multiple signals. Watches show suspicious patterns but don't cross every threshold.
Are bots excluded?
Yes. Known bot addresses, cancelled markets, and market maker activity are filtered out before scoring.
How are clusters detected?
When multiple wallets take the same side of the same market within a narrow time window, the system detects it as coordinated activity.

See what normal analytics miss.

Insider Radar is scanning every resolved market right now. The full flag feed, cluster detection, and all evidence data are available to Insider subscribers.

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