Earth's climate could warm by four degrees before the end of the century, spurring 'record-breaking heat events, heavy floods, and extreme droughts,' study warns
- Study examined scenario in which we do not mitigate greenhouse gas emissions
- The models projected a rise of 4 degrees C as early as 2064 and as late as 2095
- This could lead to extreme heat, droughts, and heavy flooding, experts warn
Earth’s climate could warm by as much as 4 degrees Celsius before the end of the 21st century, far surpassing temperatures hoped to be avoided under the Paris Agreement, according to a new study.
While the Paris Agreement aims to prevent an increase of 2 degrees, a new analysis suggests temperatures could be double that within the next 50 to 80 years if we do not curb emissions.
Experts warn that this much warming could spur devastating weather events around the world, from extreme heat and droughts to catastrophic floods.
By comparing 39 climate model experiments from Couple Model Intercomparison Project, the researchers estimated how temperatures could rise. The models projected a rise of 4 degrees C as early as 2064 and as late as 2095. The year 2084 appeared as the median (shown)
The new study published to the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences this week examines a scenario in which the world does not mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.
By comparing 39 climate model experiments from the fifth phase of the Couple Model Intercomparison Project, the researchers estimated how temperatures could rise in the next few decades.
The models projected a rise of 4 degrees C as early as 2064 and as late as 2095. The year 2084 appeared as the median.
‘A great many record-breaking heat events, heavy floods, and extreme droughts would occur if global warming crosses the 4 °C level, with respect to the preindustrial period,’ said Dabang Jiang, a senior researcher at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
‘The temperature increase would cause severe threats to ecosystems, human systems, and associated societies and economies.’
Experts warn 4 degrees of warming could spur devastating weather events around the world. Temperature and precipitation changes with 4 degree increase are shown
According to the researchers, land areas would experience more annual and seasonal warming than regions over the ocean.
And, the Arctic would be among the hardest hit, with a greater degree of temperature variation.
This would also drive an increase in precipitation in the Arctic and Pacific, the researchers say.
While similar effects are expected with a 1.5 or 2 degree rise, the consequences would be far more severe with 4.
The new study published to the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences this week examines a scenario in which the world does not mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. File photo
‘Such comparisons between the three levels of global warming imply that global and regional climate will undergo greater changes if higher levels of global warming are crossed in the 21st century,’ wrote Jiang.
The team plans to investigate the changes that could come from 4-degree warming in greater detail moving forward.
‘Our ultimate goal is to provide a comprehensive picture of the mean and extreme climate changes associated with higher levels of global warming based on state-of-the-art climate models, which is of high interest to the decision-makers and the public,’ said Jiang.
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