Fed doves, Fed hawks: US central bankers in their own words
Oct 12 (Reuters) - The labels "dove" and "hawk" have long been used by central bank watchers to describe the monetary policy leanings of policymakers, with a dove more focused on risks to the labor market and a hawk more focused on the threat of inflation. The topsy-turvy economic environment of the coronavirus pandemic sidelined those differences, turning U.S. Federal Reserve officials at first universally dovish as they sought to provide massive accommodation to a cratering economy, and then, when inflation surged, into hawks who uniformly backed aggressive rate hikes. Now, as Fed policymakers note improvement on inflation and some cooling in the labor market but also stronger-than-expected economic growth, divisions are more evident, with more varied choices: to raise rates again, skip for now but stay poised for more later, or take an extended pause. All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, held eight times a year, but only five cast votes at any given meeting, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule. The following chart offers a stab at how officials currently stack up on their outlook for Fed policy and how to balance their goals of stable prices and full employment. The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more on the thinking that shaped these hawk-dove designations, click on the photos in the graphic. Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk Lisa Cook, Jerome Michelle Governor, John Powell, Fed Bowman, permanent Williams, Chair, Governor, voter: "If New York permanent permanent confirmed, I Fed voter: "We voter: will stay President, want to see "The policy focused on permanent convincing rate may need inflation voter: "My evidence to rise until our job current really, that further and is done." June assessment we have stay 21, 2023 is that we reached the restrictive are at, or appropriate for some time near, the level." Sept to return peak level 20, 2023 inflation to of the the FOMC's target goal." Oct 11, range for 2023 the federal funds rate." Sept. 29, 2023 Patrick Philip Christopher Loretta Harker, Jefferson, Waller, Mester, Philadelphia Vice Governor, Cleveland Fed Fed President, Chair: "We permanent President, 2023 voter: are in a voter: "The 2024 voter: "Right now, I sensitive financial "We are think that period of markets are basically at we've probably risk tightening up or near" the done enough." management and they are peak of the Aug. 24, 2023 , where we going to do tightening have to some of the campaign. Oct balance work for 6, 2023. the risk us... We will of not see how those having higher rates tightened feed into enough, what we do on against policy in the the risk coming of policy months." Oct being too 11, 2023 restrictiv e." Oct 9, 2023 Raphael Michael Neel Bostic, Barr, Vice Kashkari, Atlanta Fed Chair of Minneapolis President, Supervisio Fed 2024 voter: "I n, President, actually don't permanent 2023 voter: think we need voter: "In "Today I put to increase my view, a 40% rates the most probability" anymore." Oct important on the 10, 2023 question scenario that at this "we would point is have to push not the federal whether an funds rate additional higher, rate potentially increase meaningfully is needed higher." Sept this year 26, 2023 or not, but rather how long we will need to hold rates at a sufficient ly restrictiv e level to achieve our goals." Oct 2, 2023 Austan Lorie Logan, Goolsbee, Dallas Fed Chicago President, Fed 2023 voter: President, "If long-term 2023 interest voter: "On rates remain the real elevated side I because of feel like higher term nothing premiums, has there may be happened less need to so far raise the fed that is funds rate." convincing Oct 9, 2023 evidence that we are off the golden path." Oct 5, 2023 Mary Daly, San Thomas Francisco Barkin, Fed Richmond Fed President, President, 2024 2024 voter: voter: "I "It's good would say for the Fed now the to take some risks of time and see how we how the data balance plays out." those Sept. 28, things are 2023 roughly balanced -- over-tight ening versus under-tigh tening -- but we still have high inflation and the labor market's still strong." Oct 10, 2023 Susan Collins, Boston Fed President, 2025 voter: "While we are likely near, and could be at, the peak for policy rates, further tightening could be warranted depending on incoming informatio n." Oct 11, 2023 Note: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.5%, was in July. Most policymakers as of September expected one more rate hike by year´s end. Neither Jeff Schmid, Kansas City Fed's president since August and a voter in 2025, nor Adriana Kugler, a permanent voter who was confirmed to the Fed Board in September, have yet made any substantive policy remarks. The St. Louis Fed has begun a search to succeed president, James Bullard, who took a job in academia; the new chief will be a 2025 voter. (Reporting by Ann Saphir)
