Chen Shui-bian is the Democratic Progressive Party’s kingmaker now.He looks like Kakuei Tanaka, a Japanese prime minister who had to quit because of the Lockheed scandal but stayed on to get Yasuhiro Nakasone into his shoes in 1983.Tanaka was called yami-Shogun (闇將軍Shogun at night), that metamorphosed to kagemusha (samurai general’s double) thanks to Taiwan’s ingenious journalists in Tokyo.That term, ying-wu-zhe in Chinese (影武者), is now often used to describe President Chen.It’s misnomer, though.The real meaning in Japanese is “wirepuller.”
President Chen himself has metamorphosed, too.He is a lame duck.He was all but down and out less than a year ago when his former ally Shih Ming-teh led a March of One Million on the Office of the President on October 10 to demand that he step down to take responsibility for a spate of scandals involving himself, his wife and close associates.He had to rely on his DPP lawmakers for surviving two recall attempts at the Legislative Yuan.Firs lady Wu Shu-chen was indicted for corruption, charged with borrowing invoices and receipts from friends and relatives to claim a NT$14.8 million reimbursement from a public under his control for the conduct of “affairs of state.”He wasn’t indicted – for he is immune to prosecution – but prosecutors regarded him as an unindicted co-defendant, who will be formally charged on leaving office.
Then the Goddess of Fortune smiled on President again.The ruling party had to select a standard bearer in 2008.He alone was able to mediate in a four-way race for the nomination.Finally, Frank Hsieh was nominated and Chen flexed his political muscle to make Su Tseng-chang the running mate.Chen then began his campaign to have Taiwan join the United Nations under its name.It culminated in a mass rally in Kaohsiung on September 15 calling on the nation to support a referendum on Taiwan’s accession to that world body.Chen who led the march was the man of the hour, totally eclipsing sidelined Hsieh and Su.
Another lucky break came in the form of the indictment for corruption of the two DPP presidential primary losers, Vice President Annette Lu and DPP chairman Yu Shyi-kun.Prosecutors who indicted Ma Ying-jeou for corruption formally prosecuted Lu and Yu but dropped the same charges against Hsieh and Su.Yu had to resign as chairman of the ruling party, and President Chen is taking over.Chen is more powerful than ever.The lame duck seems to take off.
That, however, is half of the story.
Unlike Tanaka, who commanded the largest faction of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, President Chen leads a minority party.Whereas Tanaka could almost dictate who was to be the prime minister, Chen had to win support of a large segment of Taiwan’s middle-of-the road voters if he wants to get Hsieh elected, come next March 22.And that is getting all the more difficult, paradoxically because of his call for the U.N. referendum, which is opposed by China as well as the United States.
The president’s thrill-packed strategy is based on two assumptions: China dare not attack Taiwan and Washington won’t give up on him no matter what he does.He knows the referendum is unlikely to pass and the voter turnout will be low, if it is held alongside the presidential election.Most of the median voters will stay at home, and that’s exactly what he needs.If they do not bother to vote, Hsieh can beat Ma.The low turnout means only hard core supporters will vote.The ruling party has more hard core supporters than the opposition Kuomintang.The former are strongly pro-independence, and for that reason alone the president keeps on trying to write a new constitution for Taiwan, which China considers a declaration of de jure independence of the island and vows to invade.
Chen’s scenario appears faultless.But he is counting the chickens before they are hatched.The fact is that he has overplayed his hand.The patience of Uncle Sam who has given him warning after stunningly harsh warning is wearing thin.Can the United States afford to lose face as the world’s only superpower that fails to tether a tiny “client” country like Taiwan?Washington may choose to announce it would wash its hands off the question of Taiwan, if the referendum were adopted.The Taiwan Relations Act does not require the United States to help defend the island.All President George W. Bush has to do is just to reiterate the U.S. adherence to the act but won’t take any action, military or otherwise, if hostilities should occur across the Taiwan Strait at Taipei’s provocation.That would force all fence-sitting voters in Taiwan to turn out in droves on Election Day.
All – including hardcore supporters of the ruling party – are agreed that Taiwan has made little progress under President Chen’s rule. Law and order has deteriorated.The economy has remained stagnant at best.The life has become harder.More people have committed suicide because they have no hope for the future.All but the hardcore supporters want a change of government.Those apolitical voters, who account for at a least third of the electorate, do not like to go to the polls.Washington’s hands-off announcement will awaken their sense of crisis.By far the great majority of people will be shocked to find the danger isn’t a remote one anymore and the wolf is at their door.They have to do something.They have to cast their ballots to vote in whoever is thought capable of removing that imminent and real threat to their life.
All this means President Chen’s wonted tactic of stoking the feud between islanders and mainlanders to win elections won’t work.Hsieh is an islander.Ma is a mainlander.Many islanders would vote for Hsieh solely because he is a favorite son.That tactic may work, if Chen has not driven Uncle Sam into a corner.
（本文刊載於96.09.24 China Post第4版，本文代表作者個人意見）
胡思聰
(
2007年6月12日 09:50
)
林祖嘉
(
2018年4月17日 16:11
)
王順民
(
12月6日 16:45
)
張瑞雄
