Is there going to be a war over the Tiaoyu Islands, which the Japanese call the Senkakus? According to a joint poll conducted by Taiwan's Want Want China Times Public Opinion Survey Center and China's “Global Times (環球時報),” a little over half of the people on the Chinese mainland believe Beijing would resort to force of arms to protect its sovereignty over what is known as the Diaoyutai group of eight small uninhabited islets, only 120 miles northeast of Keelung, Taiwan's major international seaport in the north. Taiwan, China, and Japan have a sovereignty dispute over the small archipelago.
The results of the survey, published in Taipei by the China Times on last Thursday, show 52.1 percent of the Chinese respondents believe the sovereign dispute may lead to war between China and Japan. Another 38.3 percent say there will be no war, while the remaining 9 percent have no opinion on the matter. In Taiwan, a 40-percent plurality believe there won't be war, slightly over the 42.7 percent who are convinced there will be, with the remaining 17.3 percent answering that they don't know.
Asked whether there is an understanding or a tacit agreement or coordination between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait to cope with Japan, a 64.3-percent majority in mainland China are convinced it exists, while a 36.8-percent plurality in Taiwan believe there isn't, followed at 27.5 percent by those who think there is, while “don't know” answers represent 35.7 percent. On the other side of the Strait, the same replies account for a mere 15.1 percent, whereas those who say there isn't make up 20.6 percent.
Should the two sides work together to solve the problem of the small island group? Supporters for cross-strait cooperation account for 85.3 percent in the mainland and 51.5 percent in Taiwan, against the non-supporters representing 8.8 percent and 27.5 percent, respectively.
On the question of “whatever means, including acts of warfare, have to be taken to defend the sovereignty over the Diaoyu or Tiaoyu Islands,” nine out of every 10 people in China, or 90.8 percent say “yes” whereas a 41.2 percent plurality of their counterparts in Taiwan agree with them. Those in Taiwan who say “no” are a 31.6-percent minority, with the remaining 27.2 percent expressing no opinion. The naysayers in China make up a mere 5.2-percent minority, while 4 percent have no opinion.
Which side of the Strait has a stronger stance on the small islets vis-a-vis Japan? A little more than half of the respondents in Taiwan, or 50.5 percent, believe Beijing has, while 18.3 percent are convinced that Taipei takes a stronger stance against Japan, 2.6 percent say both Taipei and Beijing have an equally strong stance, and 1.5 percent think neither has a strong stance. In the Chinese mainland, the figures are 16.4 percent, 38.7 percent, 23.6 percent, and 7.6 percent, respectively.
One thing is clear: Mainland Chinese are much more anti-Japanese and look forward much more eagerly than their brethren in Taiwan toward a small war — like the Mukden Incident of Sept. 19, 1931 or the Marco Polo Bridge Incident of July 7, 1927, albeit all of them know full well Japan, with the help of the United States, is most likely to win. The difference is understandable. The Chinese in the mainland suffered much worse at the hands of the Japanese in the two incidents, the latter of which lasted eight years and ended with the victory of the Allies at the end of the World War II, while the ethnic Chinese in colonial Taiwan have long forgotten the cruel Japanese suppression and oppression that followed the cession of the island to the Land of the Rising Sun.
The chances that there may occur armed conflict are rising as Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda declared a nationalization of the land on three of the Senkaku islands which Governor Shintaro Ishihara of Tokyo is raising over 1.3 billion yen or US$18.6 million to purchase for his metropolis and a Chinese tycoon is applying to Beijing for developing a leisure resort on the disputed islets. Tong Zeng, chairman of the Zhong Xiang Investment Corporation and president of the Chinese People's League for the Protection of the Diaoyu Islands, has filed applications with Beijing's National Oceanic Bureau to lease the same islets for the development of the resort and is ready to send a survey team, probably almost at the same time an Ishihara mission will be visiting the islands next month. As part of his development project, Tong is applying to open a cruise route from Amoy in Fujian or Zhoushan in Zhejiang to the Diaoyutais.
There is one noteworthy finding in the joint poll. The people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait support cooperation in protecting their inherent territory of the Tiaoyutai or Diaoyutai archipelago. It's only natural that Taiwan's support is much less enthusiastic because a majority of the people are Japanophiles and yet one in two eligible voters supports cooperation between Taipei and Beijing in dealing with the Japanese on the Senkaku problem. Well, that may result from the “blood is thicker than water” kinship, but practically everybody is convinced that the Japanese simply have no justifiable claim to the Senkakus.
Of course, Taiwan's leaders, from President Ma Ying-jeou down, have vowed there won't be any cooperation or collaboration across the Strait. But it's possible that when an armed conflict occurs between China and Japan, Taiwan may just get involved to defend its sovereignty over the Tiaoyutais by accident. It won't be a premeditated cooperation or collaboration, though. It is hoped that neither Beijing nor Tokyo should continue to provoke each other into a small war by mistake.
〈本文僅供參考，不代表本會立場〉
（本文刊載於101.7.23 The China Post 4版 ）
王順民
(
20 小時前
)
曾復生
(
21 小時前
)
呂啟元
(
2012年10月26日 17:58
)
