Voters will go to the polls next Saturday to elect a new Legislative Yuan.This year’s legislative elections, however, may yet prove to be very much trouble-ridden.
Though the Democratic Progressive Party’s referendum bandwagon was forced to come to a sudden halt, the dispute over how blank ballots should be distributed on Election Day may trigger contest after obstinate contest to threaten the inauguration of the new legislature with all its 113 members on February 1.A voter has to cast four ballots this time around, two for the elections and the other two for referendums.One of the ballots for the elections will be cast for a political party for the first time in Taiwan’s election history. Political parties have submitted to the Central Election Commission their lists of nominees, from among whom 34 lawmakers at large will be chosen.
The commission, on the other hand, has decreed that all ballots are valid even if they are cast into wrong ballot boxes.There are four in each poll, the first two for candidates and parties and the last two for as many referendums.There are bound to be many miscast ballots, all of which, however, are valid.That means candidates declared winners after all the votes in the first box are tallied may have to wait until those cast in the last two boxes are counted, though neither of the two referendums will be valid for lack of a half-of-the electorate quorum after the Kuomintang’s announced boycott to stop the ruling party’s bandwagon.When any candidate contests the outcome of the elections, the commission has to order a recount.If a score or more candidates and political parties contest, the commission simply can’t cope with the contingency.All it can do is to defer the announcement of winners.Nobody can tell how long it will take to sort everything out, but one is reasonably certain the new parliament will be undermanned when it calls its first session on the first day of next month, according to the Constitution. Probably all 34 lawmakers at large won’t be able to attend, the most conspicuously absentee being none other than Wang Jin-pyng, the outgoing Legislative Yuan president or parliament speaker who is expected to succeed himself.
Well begun is half done.But a poorly begun legislature is not going to have half of its job done in the next three years.The nation’s new highest legislative organ will have its seats halved from its previous 225 to make itself more efficient. The chances are that it will perform even less efficiently than its pitifully ineffective immediate past.
An idle legislature may be one the Democratic Progressive Party looks forward to.It is resigned to a loss in Saturday’s elections. Should the Kuomintang win a two-thirds majority or more, President Chen Shui-bian, who doubles as chairman of the ruling party, might be recalled before he steps down on May 20.
The opposition alliance of the Kuomintang and the People First Party moved three times in the last Legislative Yuan to recall President Chen, who was regarded as an unindicted co-defendant with first lady Wu Shu-chen who is standing trial for corruption.It has been more than one year since her first trial hearing began and the Taipei district court can’t pass judgment on her because she has refused to appear in court for health reasons.Wu was indicted for borrowing invoices and receipts from friends and relatives to claim an NT$18.4 million reimbursement from a public fund under her husband’s control for the conduct of “affairs of state.”The president was not indicted, for he is immune to criminal prosecution while in office.He will be prosecuted on leaving office, however.
All three opposition motions to oust President Chen failed, because the lawmakers of his ruling party rallied solidly behind him to keep him in office.To pass a recall motion, a two-thirds majority vote is necessary.The opposition alliance did not have that majority, even with the support of all independents plus legislators of the Taiwan Solidarity Union, which was an ally of the Democratic Progressive Party.The recall motions were boycotted by Chen’s supporters who formed a two-fifths minority in the Legislative Yuan.
If the new legislature were inaugurated with the Kuomintang holding a two-thirds majority, a recall would be initiated and passed before you can say Jack Robinson.That, of course, is what the ruling party and President Chen hate to see happen.
It won’t be easy for the Kuomintang come up with a better excuse to topple the president lawfully.Corruption certainly is no longer a good alibi.Even Shih Ming-teh, a former chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party who led a March of One Million on the Office of the President last year, could not depose Chen.Shih’s Redshirts demanded that Chen resign to take responsibility for a spate of scandals, involving in particular the first lady and the first son-in-law.They besieged the Office of the President on Double Tenth Day, while Chen was delivering a national day speech before foreign dignitaries and the foreign diplomatic corps in Taipei.Yet Chen survived the Red peril. Forget about any attempt to recycle the old corruption charges.
Can the opposition party accuse President Chen of committing an act of rebellion or treason?There isn’t much ground, albeit he did what he could to make the already divided country even more divisive.He certainly isn’t the man who has enough integrity, principle and decency to be trusted with the awesome powers of the presidency, but that alone isn’t sufficient reason for relieving him of his job.But he got his Council of Grand Justices to declare he has the right to withhold the dossier on his private diplomacy that the prosecution wants as evidence against his wife in her corruption trial.Now that the ex-officio chairman of the council has been changed, grand justices may defect and his manipulation can be turned into a case of obstruction of justice.If that case is built, the Kuomintang has enough ground to move to recall the president.Remember one of the reasons for President Richard Nixon’s impeachment is obstruction of justice?
（本文刊載於97.01.07 China Post第4版，本文代表作者個人意見）
胡思聰
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2007年6月12日 09:50
)
林祖嘉
(
2018年4月17日 16:11
)
王順民
(
12月6日 16:45
)
彭蕙仙
張瑞雄
