The reshuffling of the Cabinet has already been settled, and it is confronted with an economy that remains mired in recession. Proclaimed to be a "combative Cabinet" set to rescue the economy, the new Cabinet faces a frightening amount of pressure from all quarters. Although, over the past month, the domestic stock market and commercial activity are showing the first signs of an economic recovery and the U.S. economy is also showing signs of a reversal as per predicted by Alan Greenspan, many domestic economic indicators still reveal that our economic and financial situation is quite severe. Thus, we shouldn't be overly hopeful that economic mechanisms will gradually adjust themselves automatically. The government still needs to unveil its psychological weapons and as soon as the new Cabinet is in its battle stations, it should provide measures for invigorating the economy. The Cabinet should use effective leadership to stimulate private and foreign investments so as to inspire consumer spending and allow the economy to rebound as soon as possible.
First, looking at monetary finances, lending and investment by domestic banks have revealed the recessionary phenomenon of negative growth. This type of credit squeeze together with negative growth in the December 2001 consumer price index make it difficult to avoid comparisons with Japan's deflation. Adding to this, the fact that money supplies for December were unexpectedly lower than the central bank's target range and at a historical low, there is even greater cause for concern. This makes it clear that although the Central Bank of China has followed the United States by lowering interest rates 12 times consecutively, this has not been beneficial to either the money supply nor in stimulating credit growth by the banks. Furthermore, the New Taiwan dollar exchange rate has mirrored the Japanese yen's devaluation, and it appears that there is nothing that can be done to improve financial and monetary problems.
Next, speaking on the unemployment problem, despite the fact that over the past two months the unemployment rate as declined, it is still holding at above 5 percent. Faced with an assault on employment after the opening to agricultural imports following entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO), it is hard to be optimistic that unemployment will cease its rise. In addition to this, is the continued layoffs resulting from numerous businesses making foreign investments, while ignoring the benefits from the many measures taken to improve the investment climate. These include the loosening of capital controls, the "Promoting Conditions for Increased Productivity Amendment", the establishment of new science parks, the implementation of the "Company Merger Law", and the reduction in tariffs following entry into the WTO. The central bank is studying the Japanese government's monetary policy in hopes that a policy of devaluing the New Taiwan dollar will increase investment costs for enterprises making foreign investments and curb the speed at which domestic industries become hollowed out. Despite these measures, the fact that the fervor for foreign investments has yet to abate and that domestic enterprises are gradually becoming centers for financial affairs and materials procurement, and that factory buildings are being left idle, it is hard to imagine that the problem won't deteriorate further following the lunar New Year.
Accordingly, even though the Council for Economic Planning and Development has announced that leading economic indicators have risen for three months consecutively, and that the U.S. economy is showing signs of recovery, the continued existence of the current currency and credit squeeze leads to the country's inability to improve its depressed state of private investment and the hollowing out of industries. The new Cabinet needs to quickly come up with a plan for dealing with this and not take a narrow view of things. Also, the new Cabinet should not approach the challenge with an optimistic outlook but should use as much information as possible in an attempt to use words to wake up consumer spending and spur investments.
（本文代表作者個人之意見）
（本文刊登於91.2.6 Taiwan News Editorial）
王順民
(
12月6日 16:38
)
徐明珠
(
2007年8月3日 15:19
)
